IAF 331

Geopolitics course notes

Mary Joe Alavalas

2/28/2011

Several stages in history:

1- Decolonization/ Independence- Kings and Monarchs were leading, the nation state appeared

2- Coups d'état, revolutions Kings no longer ruled,- Armies lost the war, (1967, 1973, 1956, and 1982 camp David)

3- The people- New revolution of the people

- Even if it moves the system, it is not always called a revolution, sometimes it is called a coup d'état.

- Empire: a domain ruled by an emperor/ empress. The empire always has a core (center) and a periphery (also described as zone of influence) .Examples of Empires:a- Mongol Empire: since it was not institutionalized, it did not last long,

however it was the biggest empire.b- Global empires such as France & Britain: based on colonies, (the need of

attainment of resources, cheap labor, and a market to sell finished products.) Global empires created a global economic system (mercantilism), and a global world order. Most of these empires are Maritime countries.

c- Regional empires such as the Roman and the Ottoman Empires, they are called as such since they are contiguous. They need to preserve the core to survive.

There are two types of empires:

Continental Empire

- Land power- Such as: Ottoman Empire,

Russia, and the Roman Empire

Maritime Empire

- Sea power- Such as: Portugal, Spain,

Holland, Britain, U.S.A.

Alfred T. Mahan:

- Study of maritime countries such as U.K.

- Influence of sea power upon history,

- For example: sea battles greatness of U.K.

- His concept of "sea power" was based onthe idea that the most powerful navy will control the globe; it was most famously presented in The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660–1783 (1890).

The concept had an enormous influence in shaping the strategic thought of navies across the world, especially

Alfred Thayer Mahan

(September 27, 1840 – December 1, 1914) was a United States Navy flag officer, geostrategist, and historian, who has been called "the most important American strategist of the nineteenth century."

in the United States, Germany, Japan and Britain. His ideas still permeate the U.S. Navy.

Halford Mackinder:

- Study of continental countries

- Heartland theory ideas still applied and relevant in the cycle (cycle and arrow)

- Contextual changes in arrow.

- who controls the heartland, controls the world.

Nicholas Spykman:

- Rimland theory opposing Halford Mckinder

List of thinkers in the two categories:

Continental:

- Friederich Ratzel (political geography and Lebensraum)

- Halford Mckinder- Nicholas Spykman

Maritime:

- Alfred T. Mahan

Definitions:

- Irrendentism: reclaiming a lost land (for example the Palestinians)

- Irredentist: One who advocates the recovery of territory culturally or historically related to one's nation but now subject to a foreign government.

Nicholas John Spykman

(1893 – 1943) was a Dutch-American geostrategist, known as the "godfather of containment." As a political scientist he was one of the founders of the classical realist school in American foreign policy, transmitting Eastern European political thought into the United States.

Sir Halford John Mackinder

(15 February 1861 – 6 March 1947) was an English geographer and is considered one of the founding fathers of both geopolitics and geostrategy.

- Choke point: a geographical feature (could be on land, or sea, or even in a no fly zone in air) through which armies must pass.Examples: Suez Canal, Bab-el Mendeb, Hurmuz…

- Shatter Belt: Zone of compression between two competing powers; it is usually made of several countries, otherwise (if it is one country) it is considered a buffer state.

- Geopolitical transition: the transition from one geopolitical world to another.

- Buffer state: a weak and neutral country in between two opposing powers. Examples: Lebanon (between Syria and Israel) , Poland (between Russia and Germany)…

The cycle and the arrow:

Geopolitical transitional order:

- Economic and political components

- It is a lengthy process

- (Definition) A period between 2 geopolitical orders.

- The move from one geopolitical order to another needs a turning point

P.s. : Turning point = Black Swan = Paradigm shift (example: Fall of the U.S.S.R.)

- Thomas Coone says "y=ax+b for example if it is 1, then y=x+1 makes a linear equation producing a line on the graph of a x and y intercept. However, history does not move in a Linear way, as revolutions, uprisals, and similar sudden events have proven.

- Black Swan: big unexpected/unprecedented changes; explained further in the Lebanese philosopher, Nassib Nicholas Talib's book The Black Swan.

- N.S.A. : is an actor, not a state, so it is a non-state actor.it could be a VNSA (violent NSA), or a VTNSA (violent terrorist NSA) Example: Al Qaeda, Hizbullah (in several instances and at different statuses)

Hizbullah's statuses throughout three phases:1- 1982- 1993: NSA;2- 1994-2005: State (entrance to parliament), and NSA;3- 2005- today: State (cabinet and parliament), and NSA.

International relations: is a branch of political science, it is the study of foreign affairs and global issues.

- Theories of International relations: 1- Realism: state centric; TOOLS: hard power and diplomacy (carrot & stick)2- Idealism: Ideas/ International approach /Figures ( examples: Nelson Mandela,

Mother Theresa, Mahatma Gandhi) 3- Liberalism: State centric/ NGOs /MNCs

Distinction between political Philosophy and Political Science:

Political Philosophy Political Science

- It is how governments should work;

- Aristotle was the first to talk about it.

- It is how governments actually work.

Hizbullah is trying to legitimize itself and keep its freedom at the same time, in order to act autonomously.

Political Geography (Friederich Ratzel)

International Relations

Geopolitics (Rudolf Kjellen)

Geostrategy

Strategy

Operational

Tactic

- Geostrategy: is the country landlocked or maritime? Example: Afghanistan

- Strategy: is very important; central command is an example, it is what links goals to means. It is a living organism.

- Operational: Iraqi theater an example.

- Tactic: Soldier in Fallujah/ Baghdad.The U.S. paid 300$ to Sunni men per month to fight the Qaeda, this was a change made by the U.S. to improve its strategy.

N.S.S. (National Security Strategy) :

I- Comprises of:

a- Broader global viewb- Grand strategyc- Political goals of America

II- Each department deals with the concerned issues

III- Military Strategy (allocation of resources and etc…)

P.S.: Politics precedes Military in America; military applied political decisions" War is politics by other means"_ General Carl von Clausewitz.

Shatter belt: it is a region, zone of compression, called a crash zone. Its characteristics are:

- Being deeply fragmented,

- Low degree of cohesiveness,

- Low stage of maturity,

- Global destabilizer

Example: Deeply Fragmented (fought each other)

The Middle East Low cohesiveness

Current turmoil

Global de-stabilizer (9-11 incident)

- Commodity: Product made to be produced and exchanged for profit

- Strategic commodity: Commodity that plays a part in the international economy (related to world order), and has strategic geopolitical ramifications.Oil, is highly important for the international economy, thus it is a strategic commodity.

1- Oil2- Strategic commodity location: Ellipse of Oil (Middle east and Central

Asia Shatter belt)3- Globalization

- Globalization: 1- Describes an ongoing process by which regional:

- Economies- Societies Have become integrated.- Cultures

2- Has technological aspects3- Phenomena of glocal (Local, and connected internationally, such as Kosovo)

- Critical Geopolitics: Is the practice of identifying the power relationships within geopolitical statements?Example:

What do each of these mean? - The spread of free market;

- The spread of democracy;

- The new Middle East; What are the consequences? Who gains and who pays?

********Bob Gates (Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates)

“Any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should 'have his head examined' .ˮ_ General [Douglas] MacArthur.

U.S.A. waged 4 major war s in Asia:1- Korea 1950,2- Vietnam 1975,3- Afghanistan,4- Iraq.

- We can say that the U.S. has no more army to fight,

Economic losses:Total Cost of Wars Since 2001

$1,162,519,255,633

Cost of War in Iraq$778,200,640,509

Cost of War in Afghanistan$384,318,615,124

- Containment Strategy: The American strategy used to contain the USSR during the cold war. "Containment strategy is a policy of creating strategic alliances in order to check the expansion of a hostile power or ideology or to force it to negotiate peacefully. Containment of communist expansion was a central principle of United States' foreign policy from 1947 to the 1975" 

- Domino theory: (use an example to explain this, it is when one event pushes another which pushes another, like domino pieces which fall one after the other)

- Geopolitical doctrine: Geopolitical document, which, if critically analyzed, reveals the goals the country is trying to achieve.

Examples:

1- Monroe Doctrine,2- Kennedy Doctrine,3- Nixon Doctrine,4- Carter Doctrine, 1982 (1979*1: Iranian Revolution and USSR invades

Afghanistan. Carter's speech taken seriously, thus the congress funded CENTCOM.

5- Reagan Doctrine,6- Bush Doctrine.

*1 Iran: Shah was pro-American, he lost after the revolution happened. - Afghanistan: was under the USSR, which had a freeway to fuel countries.Geopolitical need Carter needs doctrine: CENTCOM was born.

- ILSA: Iraq & Libya Sanction Act

- COIN: Counter-insurgency.

Doctrine Strategy- Declared speech (highest level),- Indirect level,- Characteristics:

1- Short,2- Vague3- Flexible

- Undeclared,- Is on a direct level of

application,- Characteristics:

1- Long2- Direct3- Rigid

- Irredentism: reclaiming lost land

- Insurgency : Fighting an occupier (Example: Sunnis and Americans fought)

- Resistance: fighting an occupier, (Example: COIN)

- Assymetric (warfare): the fight of the weak against stronger. This happens through a certain way: "choose and concentrate strength on opponent's weaknesses. Weaknesses are unrecuperable: weaker points are unescapable." (Example: Hizbullah fight against Israel)

Assymetric warfare is prohibited by the UN laws, as there is a "law of proportionality", for e.g.: penalty must be equal to the crime.

Another thing prohibited relating to proportionality: األستعمال الزاءد للعنف

- Secessionist: a movement, in which a new nation tries to separate from an already existing nation/state, through either political diplomacy, or violence (or both). انفصالية Example: Bosnia (through violence mainly), and Sudan) ((حركة(through diplomacy) .)

- Terrorism: Using violence for attaining political goals. It is a tactic (planned) used by its appliers, which can be both NSA and States. (Examples: States: Iraq & Kuwait; and Syria & Lebanon. NSAs: Al Qaeda…).

- Geopolitics:

1- It is the study that analyzes: Geography, History, and Social science with reference to spatial politics. It was coined by Rudolf Kjellen, a Swedish political scientist, who was inspired by Friederich Ratzel (German geographer: the forefather of Political Geography) .

2- Ranges from the state level to the international level,

3- Examines strategic significance of geography, where geography is defined in terms of:a- Locationb- Size

c- Functiond- Relationships of places and resources

(extracted from powerpoint presentation, full explanations in presentation)

Polticial Geography: Friederich Ratzel,

- 2 main principles:1- Lebensraum: Vital Space, through expansion. Expansion is spiritual and

racial. (the state growsit expands, and has to take more space (which most probably is the space of others) conflict and war)

2- Social Darwinism: survival of the fittest (whoever is stronger survives and wins the land.)

- He studied the effect of the German people in America (they have a very big effect on the culture, it was to become the main language of the United States)

- He studied cities, since people in them were diverse, compressed, and accelerated. Life is fast in the city, hence it was easier to study cultures easily.

- The axis according to his thought, was the German people:1- Expansion: contiguous with other people, natural expansion2- Weaker states were always crushed due to the principle of Social Darwinism3- The German culture has to fertilize other cultures, this was the World View.

The Heartland is Eurasia:

- Russia is a Eurasian country, and it considers itself so.

- One of its thinkers says that it is neither an Atlantic nor a Pacific country, but Eurasian.

Timeline

1904:

Colonialism, races, rise of Germany and Russia. Mackinder Heartland theory.

“Jews and mosquitoes,” wrote Kaiser Wilhelm II, “are a nuisance that humanity must get rid of in some way or another. I believe the best would be gas."

General   Giulio Douhet ( Caserta 30 May 1869 - Rome 15 February 1930) was an Italian general and air power theorist. He was a key proponent of strategic bombing in aerial warfare.

Geography of the earth:

-

World Island: Periphery:

- Eurasia & Africa

- Characteristics:a) Plenty of resourcesb) could be defended (huge strategic depthlarge size)

- Americas, British Isles, &Oceania

- Characteristics:a) Smaller in sizeb) Needs sea transportc)Vulnerable and hard to defend.

Mackinder's theory:

- was that whoever rules East Europe Commands the Heartland Commands West Island (Eurasia) Rules the World.

- He was worried about:a) The rise of the Eurasian Empire,b) The fall of the British Empire.

Criticism of Mackinder's theory:- It is simplistic and linear, history has proven that the world does not move in a

linear way;- The theory is too simple and mechanistic

- He talked about mobility concerning air and sea (land & railways, and the navy), but he failed to predict air power.

- Counter-example to the theory: USSR controlled the heartland during the cold war, which means it controlled the West Island, but it did not rule the world.

P.S.: The doctrine was highly influential during WWII.

Rudolf Kjellen:

- Coined the word "geopolitics",

- His book: "State as a living form" Darwinist approach

- Five key concepts:

1- Reich (three reichs: the 1st is the Roman, 2nd is with Bismarck, and the 3rd: Nazi with Hitler)Volk: racial conception

2- Haushalt: call for "autarky" which is autonomy, based on land, in reaction to the vicissitudes of the international markets.

3- Gesellschaft: social aspect and cultural appeal4- Reiinung5- Topopolitik and Physiopolitik : the position (location), and territory

(topography).6- Morphopolitik: shape and form of the state

- He influenced General Karl Hausofer

- Hilter adopted Kjellen's 5-key concept.

Karl Haushofer:

- German politician (1869-1946)

- Through his student Rudolf Hess Influenced Hitler.

- He was sent to Tokyo to study the Japanese army,

- Travelled to: India Korea He knew the heartland well after visiting these countries Manchuria Russia

- Believed that Germany lacks the understanding of geography and geopolitical awareness.

- He linked Japan to the axis of powers geopolitics of the pacific ocean

- His son attempted to assassinate Hitler,

- He committed suicide after Germany's defeat

- His geopolitical ideas were spread through articles and magazines.

- He founded the institute of geopolitics in 1932.

Why geopolitics?

- Powerful states emerged; creators understood geographical demands of the hour.

- Geopolitics analysis enables us to make certain predictions.

- Political science used to be a prerequisite for statecraft not enough anymore

- A sound knowledge of: history & geography is a must

- Leaders must be schooled in geopolitical analysis.

Geopolitics:

- Can give a realistic insight into world picture,

- Politics is added to geography,

- It relates politics to the soil

- It rids from senseless rhetoric, utopia, and puts them on solid ground,

- Politicians lack training in geopolitics

Johan Rudolf Kjellén (13 June 1864, Torsö – 14 November 1922, Uppsala) was a Swedish political scientist and politician who first coined the term "geopolitics". His work was influenced by Friedrich Ratzel. Along with Alexander von Humboldt, Karl Ritter, and Friedrich Ratzel, Kjellén would lay the foundations for the German geopolitik which would later be espoused prominently by General Karl Haushofer.

The Strait of Malacca connects the Pacific Ocean to the east with the Indian Ocean to the west.

The making of Panama Canal gave the Bay of Mexico very high importance.

- Geographical ignorance may cost a lot.

Examples: British bases in Singapore and Hong Kong British control of the choke points such as

Gibraltar, Malacca strait, and Suez canal.

Mission of geopolitics:

- Provides state men with concrete facts,

- Provide state men with scientific equipment,

- Provide state men with the means to fight for Germany.

- Aims at the future and not the past

- Aims at solving problems of the boundary

- Follows all shifts of power in the world and all nations

Why is geopolitics popular?

- Because it promises insight into the future of direction of world affairs.

"Geopolitics goes above complexities – micro lands… However, it doesn’t miss the center. _George Friedman

Alfred T. Mahan was friends with Theodore Roosevelt, and influenced him and his decisions.

He coined the word "Middle East". He stressed the importance of sea power, contrary to Mackinder The most important book on this subject is "find book". He was a new officer, not a skilled one. He met in the naval college a lecturer called Theodore Roosevelt (who

became a president)

Panama canal:(Map)

Any plan must have 3 scenarios at most:1- Best case scenario2- Status quo (everything stays as it is)3- Worst case scenario

Unexpected has to be taken into consideration: *Black Swan*

Only Iran is ready to take over the region. Bahrain is the 16th District to Iran. Bahrain signed a treaty with Britain that states that it would not join Iran. Bahrain & its relation to Iran Ipso Facto Saudi Arabia

For all: Political, Economic, Social, information

Discussing Bahrain and the interference of Saudi Arabia:

1- Legitimacy: Saudi Arabia is a GCC member,

2- Peninsula Shield Forces: after the invasion 500 soldiers entering Bahrain

3- United States' 5th Navy Fleet

4- Banking Sector

5- Refineries (oil)

6- 25 Km King Fahd causeway

The effects of the Tsunami on Japan:

- "Tsu-nami" means Harbor Wave in Japanese

- It follows an earthquake

- It has: a) Social consequences: People are displaced and lost;b) Political consequences: Vulnerability, Japan's role in the region will decline c) Economic consequences: destruction, no production, and lossesd) Geopolitical consequences : consequences may bring national unity.

Geopolitical codes of a country:

- They can be both: adaptive (changing), and permanent- They are the manner in which a country orientates itself around the world- It consists of 5 main calculations:

1- Who are the current or potential allies?2- Who are the current or potential enemies?3- How can we maintain our allies and nurture potential allies?4- How can we counter our current enemies and emerging threats? 5- "1+2+3+4" How can we promote and Justify the aforementioned to your

local public opinion and international community?

Examples: Great Britain alliance of U.S. in cold warMain enemy: U.S.S.R., Warsaw pact.Geopolitical codes: Heartland containment strategy (means)

Depiction of the containment strategy of the USSR by the USA, and the expansion of the USSR during the cold war

Defining enemies' means:

- Enemy must be declared an enemy in order to receive and send signals. (this is crucial, for without it, one may miscalculate and lose the war)

- "Animosity must be declared"- War must be justified (in case of war)- They enemy is portrayed as:

a) Barbaricb) Irrationalc) Destabilizer of the order

A need to change the perception one's public opinion. Adaptation is important in warfare, contingency plans The element of surprise in a battle is not diplomacy… deception is diplomacy.

Scales of geopolitical codes:

Each country has its own geopolitical codes, but they differ in scope… why?

A hyperpower is different from a great power, A great power is different from a regional power A regional power is different from a local and internal power

» hence a model is developed

For survival each country develops geopolitical codes and imperatives مسلمات""

- They can expand Lebensraum , from the core to the periphery…

Hence propaganda is needed & psy-ops (psychological operations)

Some main points: Discussing Yemen's position, the Arab Spring:

1- Army and its loyalty there is a big split within the army2- Tribes3- Saudi Arabia's position (Saudi Royals)4- Structure:

a) Tribes and Geographical distributionb) The "Fivers" (Shiites) c) Yemen used to be divided in 2: North and South (Communist)

5- Historical feature: Saudis in the 60s were fighting with Huthis, now Huthis are against Saudis.

- They can overstretch, and even sometimes beyond their capabilities such as Mongolia, U.K., now U.S.

- After overstretching, they will shrink, of course to a certain extent, and that extent is supposed to be far from the core (if the shrinking reaches the core, there is a serious threat).

Hence, the rise and fall of great powers

Overstretching:

Iran of today:

- Its geocodes are clashing with: a) U.S.A.b) Saudi Arabiac) Israeld) Egypte) Turkey

However, these all differ in intensities.

U.S.S.R. versus U.S.A:

- Ideological struggle

- Strategy of containment of the Heartland and Rimland

Geopolitical codes need:

Diplomacy: send signal to enemy Force: PMEI, "carrot and the stick"

Powers at any rank will challenge each other; any attempt by one is considered a direct threat.

E.g.: Fall of U.S.S.R.:

Changes in geopolitical codes of great countries, NATO expanded under new geocodes to a point

where it hit the near abroad of Russia; Russia hit back by waging war on Georgia in 2008

Geocodes

Some main points: Discussing Yemen's position, the Arab Spring:

1- Army and its loyalty there is a big split within the army2- Tribes3- Saudi Arabia's position (Saudi Royals)4- Structure:

a) Tribes and Geographical distributionb) The "Fivers" (Shiites) c) Yemen used to be divided in 2: North and South (Communist)

5- Historical feature: Saudis in the 60s were fighting with Huthis, now Huthis are against Saudis.

Framework for case studies:

Geography: a) Locationb) Sizec) Historyd) Population- microcosm, ethnic, religious, and sectariane) Resources (strategic commodities)

i. Elements of power (PMEI)ii. Political system

Specify sphere of influence as an analysis The role in the international system, World Order, and how it is affected by

the great game. Topography: core and periphery, whether geographic or demographic or

economic Near abroad:

a) Neighborsb) Conflicts-territorial, etc.c) Conflicts- ethnic, religious, sectariand) Conflict for resources- water, oil, gas…etc.

Determining geocodes: a) Enemies: permanent, temporaryb) Friends: permanent, temporaryc) Interests: permanent, temporaryd) How country tries to implement its geocodes internally, internationally,

thus we go to foreign political international relationse) How to embed the geocodes (critical geopolitics) within national identity,

internal policies Determine geopolitical imperatives (codes) of a country The imperatives that a country has to achieve to survive After determining aforementioned, go from geopoliticsimplementation

levels

Some points about the revolutions in the Arab World:

The action happening is an uprising not a revolution.

- Egypt: 1- Location2- Role

a) U.S.A. & Israel: camp David Treatyb) Arab world

- Bahrain: 1- Location between Iran & K.S.A. (Used to be an Iranian district)2- Effect on K.S.A. & Qatar3- U.S.A. 5th fleet

- Yemen: 1- K.S.A.2- U.S.A., Al-Qaeda3- Choke point: Bab-El-Mendeb

- Syria: 1- Location (Israel, Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey, Iran (to a certain extent) )2- Arab Israeli Conflict3- It needs to change some stuff in order not to lose (the ruling power must

reform for it to keep its power)

This is politically good for Lebanon because pressure is reduced

Phase of ChaosFor sure Sunnis will come to power, is that good?

Russia Case study… didn't write much about it, tell me if we need it please