Brad, 50

Premier of Saskatchewan

We had some very surprising elections this year, how do you think polling held up?

I think the industry as a whole had a good year. Early on in the Alberta election, it looked very much like the industry was going to sit it out, we saw a few national pollsters say it was too volatile. Mainstreet had been polling Alberta for 6 months leading up to the election, when the early call came in the spring, we thought we would be going it alone. During the last ten days of the election, a few others did eventually overcome their 2012 induced shyness and started polling.

We were glad to take the lead in Alberta and happy to be the only pollster still doing monthly polls. I was still surprised to see so many pollsters predicting a PC government despite all the data pointing to an NDP win but that can be explained by the surprise result in 2012.

The federal election was the first one for Mainstreet and we did pretty well, predicting the three major national parties within 1.5% and calling the Liberal Majority, the only pollster to do so. Largely we saw most polling firms get it right. It looks like IVR pollsters took the top spots this time and the online panels seemed to be most distant to actual results.

We are still very interested in some results yet to be made public, that being the advance poll results which some pollsters predicted

were won by the NDP but our data shows were won by the Conservatives, by a very small margin over the Liberals.

The industry went through some challenges in 2015 that I consider self inflicted wounds. The formation of CAPOR which was supposed to be a positive step forward for the industry, became a source of contention and led to a divide between probability sampling firms and non probability sampling firms. The stampede to the Internet and online panels, based largely on limited success predicting US elections, where a two party system is essentially a coin toss scenario, is affecting polling across the rest of the globe.

Personally, I would like to credit Frank Graves at Ekos for his leadership in 2015 in blending online panel and IVR methodologies. This experiment with hybrid sampling is likely a trend that will continue and is something Mainstreet is studying and experimenting with.

You've been talking about some of the challenges polling is facing in the future; what do you think will be the biggest challenge in 2016?

2016 will be an exciting year, we have two Provincial elections in early 2016, with both Manitoba and Saskatchewan voters going to the polls. There is also an election in the US with some potential for

2015 was busy with a long federal election, an Alberta election, a Newfoundland and Labrador election and multiple local races. With 2016 shaping up to have races in Canada and abroad, Zain Velji of The Strategists talks to our own Quito Maggi about this year, last year and the state of the polling industry.

surprises in both Republican and Democratic primaries.I spoke recently at the Fields Institute about the challenges faced by the polling industry. I was proud to be the first non pure researcher to present to the Fields Institute and look forward to working with them in the years ahead. The challenges we discussed included declining response rates, the emergence of non probability sampling, and changing cultural and socio economic trends that impact our ability to accurately reflect ballot box voter intentions.

I don't believe we will face many different challenges in 2016 than what we faced in 2015, both Saskatchewan and Manitoba elections are expected to be consistent and predictable. There are some economic factors that may impact the current Sask Party government and could provide some excitement to what is largely expected to be a cake walk for Brad Wall. As the NDP leader Cam Broten gets more exposure during the campaign, he may gain traction.

The Liberals will be the X factor in both these Provincial elections as we have seen crossover support based on the popularity of Justin Trudeau and the federal LIberals.

I wouldn't expect to see a Liberal government in either Manitoba or Saskatchewan anytime soon, but I would expect them to make gains, perhaps significant gains.

A crowded and growing field of pollsters in the US election will have its own challenges as media outlets and polling firms jockey for relevance and prominence.

Twitter polls, Facebook polls and Google surveys are now in the space and could pose a threat to the polling industry much in the same way they did the media industry over the last decade.

Looking back, was there anything that surprised you in 2015?

The most surprising thing in 2015 was the NDP majority government in Alberta, but only in the context of where relative voting intentions stood just after Jim Prentice became Premier. At that time, the PCS enjoyed a 25% lead over their nearest rivals in the Wildrose Party and it appeared Prentice would usher in another decade or more of PC dominance. A series of events, including the floor crossing, the budget and the early election call itself led to what is

arguably the biggest and fastest political collapse in Canadian history.

Although many observers were equally surprised with the Federal election results, the conditions were always there for a majority government for either the Liberals or the NDP. The election was decided in my opinion on August 6th when Trudeau out performed both Harper and Mulcair and continued to gain strength and momentum over the next 74 days.

As I explained on numerous media outlets in the days leading up to election day, (including your Strategists podcast) our call of a Liberal majority wasn't based on "how much" the Liberal lead was but where they were leading.

Once it became clear that they led in Quebec outisde of Montreal and Quebec City we knew that pointed to over 40 seats in Quebec and similarly in Ontario once Liberals extended the lead in the 905 and

even in Southwestern Ontario.

I suppose given where the Liberals were in July, a majority is surprising nonetheless.

We talked about the challenges of 2016. But tell me what we can look forward to in polling; what's next?

Mainstreet has been working on a few new things that we announced in late 2015 but we think will be widely implemented in 2016.

First is the introduction of our Chimera IVR technology which incorporates live voice capture to allow for open ended questions in IVR surveys. This will revolutionize IVR polling and let us expand the types of surveys we can undertake using IVR. Although we currently offer live agent surveys that can handle open ended questions, the cost is many times more expensive than IVR. With the launch of Chimera IVR, we will be able to offer our clients the large sample sizes they have come to expect from us, at a fraction of the price for the same survey.

I am most excited about launching our Voter and Polling App called CampaignR. The app was in development for most of 2015 and we had hoped to launch during the federal election, but we were so busy in the last few weeks, we decided to postpone to 2016. The app is available for iphone and Android, and will run on BlackBerry with an Android operating system.

The app let's people get all the information they may need to make an informed decision, including when and where to vote, debate locations, party and candidate news feeds, and of course, they can participate in and view poll results. We will be loading both the Provincial elections in Canada and the US election later in 2016. - Toronto, January 1st.

ALBERTA

First to call the NDP Majority and the most active pollster of the Alberta Election.

CALGARY FOOTHILLS

Most Accurate Pollster of Calgary Foothills- Correctly predicted a Wildrose Victory.

SUDBURY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Sudbury by election, correctly predicted a Liberal win.

CANADA

Only Pollster to predict a Liberal Majority. Most accurate on main party numbers.

David Valentin on Donald Trump & Saskatchewan.

When Donald Trump first announced for president the wisdom among my friends and colleagues was that he could not, would not become the republican nominee.

Now, my friends have to satisfy themselves by insisting that if the Donald wins the GOP crown that it won’t matter anyway because he’ll lose to Hilary.

This could turn out to be the case, I suppose, but a Clinton victory over Trump won’t be easy and is no sure thing.

Most make their case by citing polls showing high negatives for Trump among the general population, even though these polls also show high negatives for Clinton.

It’s worth noting that the NYT’s Nate Silver based his original prediction Trump wouldn’t do well in the republican primary on high negative numbers among republicans.

And then a funny thing happened. The numbers moved.

Trump has gone from overwhelming net negatives among republicans to solid net positives. He is not that much more disliked than Hilary (for now) among the general pop. and while his approvals with minority groups are in the gutter it may not matter.

Trump has been re-writing the rules again and again and again. Just this past week he has begun taking the fight to Bill Clinton, calling him one of the “One of the

Great Abusers”. No part of the Clinton record, any of it, is off-limits.

If we get the Clinton-Trump showdown be prepared for an intense race and high voter turnout.

Clinton is a strong candidate but carries decades of baggage. Her tenure as Secretary of State used to be a strong positive, that’s not the case anymore. Self-inflected wounds from her e-mail scandal have not helped whatsoever.

There’s a lot happening in the world right now and it is impossible to predict what external events will happen between now and election day.

But don’t rule out President Trump. Not yet.

“So, today we had a lot of news and it was all good - it never gets reported properly by these people back here, look at all those press.

Well, you know, I’ve learned two things, more than anything else, how smart the people are and how bad and dishonest the press is. It is really dishonest. It is really, really, dishonest.

So we had a lot of polls coming out today and they were really good.

That’s right.

So we had a Monmouth poll - very highly respected, Trump 41, Cruz 14, and everyone else much lower, I mean, somewhere.

So, I heard today, when they announced the poll, 41 to 14, and I like Cruz, good guy, but I heard, here’s how they announced: Cruz surging.

So when I heard, this was on television, Cruz surging, so I said oh, I don’t know, that sounds bad to me. ‘Coming up: Cruz surging’. Then they say the Monmouth poll was just done, Cruz is surging, Trump 41, Cruz 14 - I say, wait a minute. What’s going on? I tell you what, they are the most dishonest people.

Then, then, you know about CNN. CNN came out, just recently, 36 to 16. Gravis poll, highly respected, 42 to 16 to 12 to 11.

So then, today, it was very interesting because I did have one poll in Iowa, which I never expect to get, I can’t stand the paper, it’s a horrible paper. The Des Moines register is terrible.

You know, of course, I would never say they do this, but they have a very small sample, if they take about ten votes and put them in their pocket -you understand that.

So, Des Moines Register was 22-31 and all of a sudden it was like the biggest story I’ve ever seen. Okay?

That was just Iowa, don’t worry about it, it’s Iowa. We love Iowa but I think we’re doing great in Iowa - and I expect to win Iowa. We think we’re going to do great in Iowa.

I get by far the biggest crowds, and OK.

So then we had a CNN poll. So CNN today, they were talking about a poll that wasn’t theirs. And I kept saying: ‘Why don’t they talk about a poll that’s theirs?’

So they just did this poll, it’s a new poll, CNN in Iowa, Trump 33, Cruz 20 and then everyone else much lower.

So we actually sent a couple of e-mails, started to tweet a little bit, you know the Twitter is great when you have between 5 and 10 and 13, we have so many people. We have millions. So we started to tweet, we said: ‘Why is CNN not playing their poll?’ It’s their poll.

So, if anybody has an idea please let me know before the evening ends.

Then, then, we had a FOX News poll, which was a pretty good poll it was pretty much tied.

Then we had Quinnipiac, and Qunnipiac was 28 Trump, 27 Cruz, in other words, we won. They call it a tie. They say I was tied, OK. I mean, it’s not a win.

You know the bottom line: I think we’re gonna win Iowa, I think we’re going to win New Hampshire big, I think that, frankly if win Iowa we run the table, I think frankly if we win NH, which we’re way, way, way up and South Carolina has been unbelievable and, by the way, in Nevada, in Nevada, we’re winning big, big, big.

We’re winning in Florida, we’re winning everywere! So I just want to let you know this is not going to be a waste of anyone’s time. This is going to be something special.

Do I hear some noise over there? yes I do! Bye Bye.” (Protestor is escored out).

IN HIS OWN WORDS: ON POLLINGDonald Trump loves polls. At every campaign event he mentions them, sometimes going on and on and on about them. Here’s Trump, unfiltered, at a December 14th rally in Nevada.

“You know, of course, I would

never say they do this, but they have a very small sample.if they take about ten votes and put

them in their pocket - you

understand that.”

Brad, 50Premier of Saskatchewan

Heading Canada’s last “conservative” government, Brad Wall is the most popular Premier in the country. In office since 2007, he’s also Canada’s long-serving provincial leader. Though affected by the drop in commodity prices, Saskatchewan’s economy has fared better than its neighbour in Alberta. All of which makes Saskatchewan’s vote—scheduled for April 4— an election not to be missed.

With sky-high approval ratings and a growing economy, it seems a safe bet that the province’s voters will give Wall and his Saskatchewan Party a third straight mandate come spring time. Yet after a year that’s seen majority wins for Rachel Notley and Justin Trudeau, it seems foolish to write off NDP leader Cam Broten before the first debate.

How did we get here? Regardless of how he fares this time around, Brad Wall has already cemented his place in Saskatchewan’s political history. One of the Saskatchewan Party’s inaugural crop of MLAs, Wall has represented Swift Current since 1999. Elected leader in 2004, he made significant efforts to broaden the party’s appeal en route to a solid majority win in 2007. Buoyed by a resource boom and growing population, Wall and his party cruised to a second term in 2011, taking a commanding 64 percent of the vote and 49 of 58 seats, one of the largest majorities in Saskatchewan history.

Since then, the centre-right party’s appeal hasn’t diminished, despite dismal results for conservative parties nationwide. This comes to the chagrin of Cam Broten, a two-term Saskatoon MLA who narrowly won the leadership of the Saskatchewan NDP in 2013. Perhaps hoping to emulate Justin Trudeau’s success in 2015, Broten, 37, is running on a message of generational change and renewal. He recently noted that the average age of his candidates is 42 and emphasized the diversity of the NDP’s slate. This move is also an attempt to distance Broten’s party from previous NDP governments, an association that proved fatal to the party in 2011.

Much the same as Stephen Harper in his multiple election campaigns, Wall is unequivocal about his top priority: the economy. His government has presided over boom years for the province, whose economy has regularly been one of the fastest growing in Canada since the party’s election. Much of this has been due to high resource prices, especially for potash and oil. Yet the global downturn in commodity prices hasn’t spared Saskatchewan.

“Wall is not Prentice. He’s won big twice

before, and his two-term government has a record

most provincial politicians would envy.”

Though the province’s economy hasn’t been hit nearly as hard as Alberta’s, the fall 2015 economic update predicted a $262 million deficit. Outside the Prairies, Wall has frequently been mentioned a potential leader of the federal Conservatives; as the last conservative Premier in Canada he’s been a leading right-wing voice on issues such as Syrian refugees and climate change.

With four months to go until Saskatchewan voters head to the polls, all signs seem to indicate an easy third term for Wall and his party. Yet four months before Alberta’s election, then-Premier Jim Prentice held a 20 plus point lead in the polls, facing a shattered opposition. Though a continuation of Tory dominance seemed all but inevitable, we know exactly how that one turned out. Yet Wall is not Prentice. He’s won big twice before, and his two-term

government has a record most provincial politicians would envy. A seasoned professional who’s spent nearly his entire adult life in Saskatchewan politics, Wall is unlikely to commit the errors that doomed Prentice and his government.

As we approach the drop of the writ, many questions remain. Will voters focus more on the past years of rapid economic growth, or the more dim outlook ahead? Will Broten succeed in making the ballot question a choice between a tired, boring incumbent and a youthful, energetic challenger? Will the federal Liberals’ decent showing help their provincial cousins come back from the dead? Or will the man whose popularity is surpassed only by Justin Trudeau laugh his way to a third straight majority? Stay tuned as Mainstreet brings its unique methodology to Saskatchewan’s 28th general election.

ONLY WE CALLED

THE LIBERAL

MAJORITY.

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015