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Transcript of Mainstreet October National
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,197 Canadians by Smart IVR™ on September 30- October 1st, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Results were weighed
by language, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
CONSERVATIVES LEAD NATIONALLY
October 6, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new national Mainstreet/Postmedia poll conducted before Friday night’s TVA debate, finds the Conservatives holding onto a lead with the NDP slipping. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.36%, 19 times out of 20.
“The National stalemate that dominated the vast majority of this election campaign appears to be at an end,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “As the campaign enters the final two weeks, the Conservatives (37%) have opened up a substantial lead over the Liberals (29%). The Liberals have now also opened up a substantial lead over the NDP who have dropped to just 24% among decided and leaning voters.” “In recent weeks we have looked at some regions and Provinces and those results seemed to point to a significant decrease in support for the NDP and a rise for both the Conservatives and Liberals. When we look across the National picture, we find these regional gains have favoured the Conservatives.”
“In British Columbia, where early campaign polls showed a significant NDP lead, we found them trailing the Conservatives and a surging Liberal vote, these numbers reflect a slight comeback from those numbers but continued Conservative and Liberal strength. British Columbia will be home to the most close three way races we can expect to see on October 19th.”
“In Ontario, we found that provincial NDP supporters were the least brand loyal to their federal cousins and had dropped well back of the Conservatives and Liberals. These results continue to show weakness for the NDP and Tom Mulcair in Ontario where a full third of the seats are found. Regional races here will be the key, and many close races could be decided with ground game e�orts in these closing two weeks.”
“Quebec is now arguably a four way race between a sagging NDP and the surging Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois. The vote in Quebec is the most volatile of any across Canada and it will be hard to get a clear picture of ballot results until just days before the election. The only thing that is clear, is that the NDP stranglehold on support they enjoyed for most of this campaign has been reduced significantly. ”
“Atlantic Canada continues to show strong support for the Liberal party with the NDP and Conservatives in a close 2nd and 3rd position. It is hard to imagine anything less than a dominant election day performance by the Liberals across the Atlantic provinces with the NDP and Conservatives holding on to just a few seats.”
A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
“Alberta will be the most interesting province to follow on election night as the province wide picture masks some interesting regional races in both Calgary and Edmonton. The NDP surge that began with a victory for Rachel Notley's NDP here may have come to an end, but there are still pockets of strength in Edmonton. Expect both the Liberals and the NDP to make gains in Alberta but we still expect the vast majority of seats here to remain Conservative.”
“In Saskatchewan we find a continued lead by the Conservatives and the NDP continue in second place, with some signs of life for the surging Liberals. We would expect to see competitive races mostly in the Saskatoon and Regina ridings, with the Conservatives largely dominating rural Saskatchewan.”
“Manitoba is another Province where we expect the Liberals to make significant gains, they continue to close on the leading Conservatives and break away from a sagging NDP. Expect some big upsets here on October 19th based on what we are seeing today, a few weeks out from election day,” he finished.
-30- About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs. Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.
-30-
Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]
A3
A4
CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY
37%24%29%4%7%
CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY
BC29%33%28%
x10%
AB67%12%17%
x4%
SK49%29%17%
x5%
MB45%17%35%
x3%
QC21%32%27%16%5%
ON42%18%32%
x8%
Atlantic22%29%44%
x6%
CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD
+6%-6%
--%+1%
CPC NPD LPC BQ GPC
37%
24%
29%
4% 7%
A5
CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE
BC25%28%24%
x9%13%794
AB61%11%16%
x4%9%459
SK37%23%15%
x3%21%583
MB38%12%30%
x2%18%626
QC19%27%23%13%4%13%1034
ON36%15%26%
x7%16%1290
CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDED
Certain35%19%24%3%5%13%
Might17%14%38%0%2%
29%
Likely23%24%23%3%10%18%
Unlikely6%26%12%7%10%40%
CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3429%24%23%4%9%12%436
35-4933%20%22%3%5%17%976
50-6431%18%27%3%5%15%1754
65+39%16%26%2%3%14%2031
Female30%22%23%3%5%17%
2824
Male35%18%26%3%6%12%
2373
The Question Was:“If the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?”
Party and Leader Name were givenie. The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
CONSERVATIVE (CPC)NDPLIBERAL (LPC)BLOC QUÉBECOIS (BQ)GREEN PARTY (GPC)UNDECIDED (UD)
32%20%24%3%6%15%
+6%-4%
--
+1%-3%
Atlantic18%21%35%
x5%
20%411
A6
CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD
CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC UD
32%
20%
24%
3% 6% 15%
A7
Regional Margins of Error:British Columbia +/- 3.48%
Alberta +/- 4.57%Saskatchewan: +/- 4.06%
Manitoba: +/- 3.92%
British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba
A8
Regional Margins of Error:Ontario +/- 2.73%Quebec +/- 3.05%Atlantic +/- 4.83%
Ontario Québec Atlantic
A9
CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY
BC29%32%28%
x11%
AB67%12%17%
x4%
SK47%29%19%
x5%
MB46%15%36%
x3%
QC22%32%27%15%5%
ON43%18%31%
x8%
Atlantic22%27%44%
x6%
CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY
38%23%29% 4% 7%
+6%-6%
---
CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC
38%
23%
29%
4% 7%
WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? (UNDECIDED ONLY)
A10
CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDED
18-344%19%17%3%8%
57%
35-4923%18%9%3%3%
42%
50-6412%10%18%1%5%51%
65+11%10%17%2%5%57%
Female13%14%16%3%5%51%
Male13%16%14%1%4%51%
CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDED
BC13%22%11%x
3%51%
AB7%6%3%x
3%81%
SK27%14%3%x
3%53%
MB7%15%3%x
5%69%
QC5%16%13%10%4%52%
ON18%12%22%
x7%41%
Atlantic7%17%13%
x6%
63%
CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD
13%
15%
15%
2%5%
51%
A11
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you wil change you mind before the next election?
CONSERVATIVESTRONG 82%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 15%DON’T KNOW 3%
NDPSTRONG 69%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 25%DON’T KNOW 6%
LIBERALSTRONG 63%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 29%DON’T KNOW 8%
And who would be your second choice?
A12
CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD
CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC UD
10%
34%
24%
4% 9% 20%
A13
Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Canada has increased or decreased in the last few years?
INCREASEDSTAYED THE SAMEDECREASEDNOT SURESAMPLE
18-3447%22%13%17%436
35-4946%19%13%22%976
50-6439%22%15%23%1754
65+41%21%12%26%2031
Female46%18%14%23%2824
Male42%25%13%20%2373
INCREASEDSTAYED THE SAMEDECREASEDNOT SURESAMPLE
BC37%22%18%23%794
AB57%20%6%17%459
SK59%18%5%18%583
MB58%21%5%16%626
QC40%24%17%19%1034
ON41%23%14%22%1290
Atlantic53%18%15%14%411
Increased Stayed The Same Decreased Not Sure
44%
21%
13%
22%
A14
Thinking about Canada’s immigration system, do you approve or disapprove of making family reunification a priority?
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
18-3429%17%19%17%18%436
35-4932%29%9%11%18%976
50-6431%29%12%11%18%1754
65+31%26%13%9%21%2031
Female30%27%12%12%19%
2824
Male31%23%14%13%18%2373
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
BC36%25%12%9%18%794
AB23%25%18%17%18%459
SK24%24%18%16%18%583
MB22%25%19%17%17%626
QC30%29%13%11%16%1034
ON26%27%15%12%19%1290
Atlantic25%25%11%28%11%411
APPROVE: 55% DISAPPROVE: 25% NOT SURE: 19%
55%
25%
19%
A15
And in your opinion, should immigration be kept at its current level, increased or decreased?
INCREASEDDECREASEDKEEPING AT CURRENT LEVELNOT SURESAMPLE
18-3434%31%28%7%436
35-4931%28%32%9%976
50-6433%27%31%9%
1754
65+34%26%29%11%
2031
Female33%27%29%10%2824
Male33%29%31%8%
2373
INCREASEDSTAYED THE SAMEDECREASEDNOT SURESAMPLE
BC39%27%24%10%794
AB23%38%25%15%459
SK18%37%21%23%583
MB32%38%18%12%626
QC38%24%32%6%
1034
ON32%24%35%8%
1290
Atlantic34%38%22%6%411
Increased Keeping It At Current LevelDecreased Not Sure
33%
28%
30%
9%
A16
Recently there has been discussion about the Niqab, a veil worn by some Muslim women which covers the face apart from the eyes. Some have argued Musim women should not be able to wear the Niqab during citizenship ceremonies saying it is uncanadian. Others have argued they should be able to and that the government should not tell women what to wear or not. In your opinion, should the Niqab be allowed at citizenship ceremonies, or not?
YESNONOT SURESAMPLE
18-3427%57%16%436
35-4926%61%12%976
50-6427%63%10%1754
65+27%62%11%
2031
Female27%60%13%
2824
Male27%61%12%
2373
YESNONOT SURESAMPLE
BC27%63%10%794
AB29%58%13%459
SK23%56%21%583
MB23%68%9%626
QC12%70%18%1034
ON28%59%13%1290
Atlantic29%58%13%411
Yes No Not Sure
27%
61%
13%
A17
If Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wins the most seats in the election but not a majority, do you think he should be able to govern or should the opposition parties defeat his government?
HARPER SHOULD FORM GOVERNMENTOPPOSITION SHOULD DEFEAT GOVERNMENT NOT SURESAMPLE
18-3432%51%17%436
35-4949%37%14%976
50-6442%43%15%1754
65+46%35%20%2031
Female41%42%18%
2824
Male43%43%14%2373
HARPER SHOULD FORM GOVERNMENTOPPOSITION SHOULD DEFEAT GOVERNMENT NOT SURESAMPLE
BC34%47%19%794
AB75%18%7%459
SK37%41%21%583
MB38%44%18%626
QC38%50%12%1034
ON41%43%16%1290
ATL23%46%31%411
Harper Government Opposition Government Not Sure
42%
42%
16%
A18
If a minority government is elected – and defeated in the House of Commons, in your opinion what should happen next? Should there be a new election or should the governor general give a di�erent party an opportunity to form government?
NEW ELECTIONGIVE NEW PARTY A CHANCE NOT SURESAMPLE
18-3422%46%32%436
35-4930%45%25%976
50-6429%49%22%1754
65+24%49%27%2031
Female27%46%27%2824
Male26%49%25%2373
NEW ELECTIONGIVE NEW PARTY A CHANCE NOT SURESAMPLE
New Election Give New Party A Chance Not Sure
BC25%49%25%794
AB39%30%32%459
SK40%29%31%583
MB39%28%32%626
QC25%49%27%1034
ON29%44%27%1290
Atlantic24%56%21%411
26%
47%
26%
A19
And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the Liberals and NDP led by Tom Mulcair?
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
18-3425%20%18%25%12%436
35-4923%21%14%26%15%976
50-6423%18%17%26%16%1754
65+18%16%22%28%15%2031
Female23%17%17%26%17%
2824
Male23%21%18%26%11%
2373
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
BC24%21%15%24%16%794
AB9%13%20%49%8%459
SK9%12%21%48%9%583
MB8%12%23%47%9%626
QC26%24%20%18%12%1034
ON21%21%20%25%13%1290
Atlantic46%19%13%14%8%411
APPROVE: 42% DISAPPROVE: 44% NOT SURE: 14%
42%
44%
14%
A20
And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the NDP and Liberals led by Justin Trudeau?
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
18-3416%32%17%27%8%436
35-4925%18%16%28%13%976
50-6427%20%15%27%11%
1754
65+25%15%18%30%12%2031
Female24%21%15%27%13%
2824
Male23%23%17%29%9%
2373
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
BC24%23%16%25%13%794
AB13%16%18%47%7%459
SK12%16%17%49%6%583
MB13%15%17%48%8%626
QC25%27%18%22%7%
1034
ON24%23%16%28%9%
1290
Atlantic48%21%11%17%4%411
APPROVE: 45% DISAPPROVE: 44% NOT SURE: 11%
45%
44%
11%
A21
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?
Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote
Might vote Unlikely to vote
And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for? [Undecided Only]
Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [Selected a Party Q2]
Strong supporter Might change your mind
Don’t know
And who would be your second choice? [Might Change/Don’t Know Only]
Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided
A22
Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Canada has increased or decreased in the last few years?
IncreasedStayed The Same
DecreasedNot Sure
Thinking about Canada’s immigration system, do you approve or disapprove of making family reunification a priority?
Strongly approveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not sure
And in your opinion, should immigration be kept at its current level, increased or decreased?
IncreasedDecreased
Keeping It At It’s Current LevelNot Sure
Recently there has been discussion about the Niqab, a veil worn by some Muslim women which covers the face apart from the eyes. Some have argued Musim women should not be able to wear the Niqab during citizenship ceremonies saying it is uncanadian. Others have
argued they should be able to and that the government should not tell women what to wear or not. In your opinion, should the Niqab be allowed at citizenship ceremonies, or not?
YesNo
Not sure
If Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wins the most seats in the election but not a majority, do you think he should be able to govern or should the opposition parties defeat his
government?
Stephen Harper should govern if he wins the most seats but not a majorityThe Opposition Parties should defeat his Government if he does not win a majority
Not Sure
A23
If a minority government is elected – and defeated in the House of Commons, in your opinion what should happen next? Should there be a new election or should the governor general give
a di�erent party an opportunity to form government?
A New ElectionThe Governor General should give a di�erent party a chance to form Government
Not Sure
And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the Liberals and NDP led by Tom Mulcair?
Strongly approveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not sure
And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the NDP and Liberals led by Justin Trudeau?
Strongly approveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not sure
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© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.
Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.