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Transcript of Mainstreet - Ontario Riding
LIBERALS, TORIES FIGHTING IN KEY BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
October 3, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls finds the Liberals battling the Conservatives in key Ontario battlegrounds while they battle the NDP in two ridings in the city of Toronto. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Polls have a maximum margin of error of +/-3.88%, 19 times out of 20.
BRAMPTON EAST“Brampton East is shaping up to be one of the closest races in the GTA,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “With the Liberals and Conservatives deadlocked at 31% each among all voters, this will be decided by whoever has the best ground game and organization. The NDP also have significant strength in this riding with 21% among all voters and are poised to play spoilers in this riding. As we have noted repeatedly, the strength of the Conservative vote is highest, with 81%, that may be a sign of who has the edge in this close battle.”
CHATHAM-KENT-LEAMINGTONChatham-Kent-Leamington is a Conservative bastion and that looks likely to continue in 2015. Although the Liberal candidate has a 6% lead over the 3rd place NDP among all voters, a look at leaning voters shows a 1 point margin for the NDP. This narrows the lead to just 4% for the Liberals among decided and leaning voters. With a relatively high percentage of voters in this riding still undecided, at 21%, and still over 2 weeks to go, there still might be surprises here on election day.
DON VALLEY WESTDon Valley West is a hotly contested rematch of the 2011 election. This time, it's incumbent MP John Carmichael taking on Liberal contender Rob Oliphant, who was the MP until 2011. The Liberal candidate holds a significant lead, among all voters, the Liberals lead by 11%, 41% to 30% for the Conservatives with the NDP at just 11%. With the Undecided vote at just 15%, this race looks to be out of reach for the incumbent as the lead increase to 12% among decided and leaning voters.
ORLEANSOrleans is one of the most closely watched races in Canada, and of particular interest to observers inside the Ottawa political scene. This is where Liberal star candidate and former general, Andrew Leslie is up against Conservative incumbent Royal Galipeau and NDP contender, Nancy Tremblay. With a high undecided rate of 22% and significant Green party support of 6% among all voters, this close race is far from a foregone conclusion. Leslie leads by 6% among all voters and 7% among decided and leaning voters. The NDP, at 19% of decided and leaning voters, could again play spoilers in this riding.
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
A2
SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWESTIn Scarborough Southwest, former police Chief Bill Blair is taking on NDP incumbent Dan Harris for the Liberals. This is another closely watched contest, and rightfully so. With a 2% lead among all voters, and just 1% among decided and leaning voters, Bill Blair and the Liberals are looking for a major upset against a fading NDP. This is a race very much the opposite of many we have looked at, with a strong Conservative campaign looking to play spoiler. This is a very polarized riding, with just 12% being undecided, this is likely to be decided by ground game and organization on election day.
UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALEUniversity Rosedale is a new riding for the 2015 election, after the riding of Toronto Centre was redistributed post by-election. Incumbent Chrystia Freeland, a star candidate for the Liberal party trails the NDP star candidate Jennifer Hollett by 6%. The continued strength of the NDP in the downtown core of Toronto may prove a di�cult obstacle for the Liberal incumbent to overcome, but with undecided votes leaning towards Freeland, it's too early to count out Freeland.
ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.
Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.
-30-
Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]
METHODOLOGYMainstreet surveyed a random sample of riding residents by Smart IVR™ on September 28-29 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.
SAMPLES & MARGINS OF ERRORBrampton East: 684, +/- 3.73%, 19 times out of 20Chatham Kent Leamington: 625, +/- 3.88%, 19 times out of 20Don Valley West: 688, +/- 3.72%, 19 times out of 20Orleans: 660, +/- 3.8%, 19 times out of 20Scarborough Southwest: 654, +/- 3.83%, 19 times out of 20University Rosedale: 644, +/- 3.84%, 19 times out of 20
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
A4
NAVAL BAJAJ (CPC)HARBALJIT SINGH KAHLON (NDP)RAJ GREWAL (LPC)KYLE LACROIX (GPC)UNDECIDED
Certain32%22%32%3%11%
Likely25%14%38%3%21%
Unlikely26%8%10%36%21%
Might18%10%15%0%58%
NAVAL BAJAJ (CPC)HARBALJIT SINGH KAHLON (NDP)RAJ GREWAL (LPC)KYLE LACROIX (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3430%17%36%4%13%93
35-4927%22%29%5%17%185
50-6437%21%30%3%9%172
65+30%23%32%3%12%234
Female25%24%36%2%13%384
Male37%17%27%6%13%300
BRAMPTON EAST
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All Voters Decided & Leaning
31%
21%
31%
4% 13%
35%
24%
36%
5%
Bajaj Singh Kahlon Grewal Lacroix Undecided
A5
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW
CPC81%16%3%
NDP52%44%5%
LPC62%32%5%
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?
Bajaj Singh Kahlon Grewal Lacroix Undecided
BRAMPTON EAST
6%
6%
5%
3%
80%
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
A6
DAVE VAN KESTEREN (CPC)TONY WALSH (NDP)KATIE OMSTEAD (LPC)MARK VERCOUTEREN (GPC)UNDECIDED
Certain41%18%20%4%17%
Likely17%4%
30%4%
46%
Unlikely26%27%21%3%23%
Might15%6%
39%1%
40%
DAVE VAN KESTEREN (CPC)TONY WALSH (NDP)KATIE OMSTEAD (LPC)MARK VERCOUTEREN (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3429%22%17%5%
28%54
35-4939%18%22%4%17%102
50-6437%16%26%3%18%228
65+43%8%
26%0%23%241
Female39%13%23%2%
23%366
Male33%20%23%5%
20%259
CHATHAM-KENT--LEAMINGTON
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All Voters Decided & Leaning
36%
17%
23%
3% 21%
45%
23%
27%
4%
Van Kesteren Walsh Omstead Vercouteren Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW
CPC85%11%4%
NDP57%26%17%
LPC52%32%16%
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?
A7
CHATHAM-KENT--LEAMINGTON
17%
19%
6%
1%
57%
Van Kesteren Walsh Omstead Vercouteren Undecided
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
A7
JOHN CARMICHAEL (CPC)SYEDA RIAZ (NDP)ROB OLIPHANT (LPC)NATALIE HUNT (GPC)UNDECIDED
Certain31%11%42%2%15%
Likely29%27%28%6%11%
Unlikely23%8%
43%0%26%
Might32%0%
60%0%8%
JOHN CARMICHAEL (CPC)SYEDA RIAZ (NDP)ROB OLIPHANT (LPC)NATALIE HUNT (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3423%15%52%0%11%117
35-4937%13%27%5%18%156
50-6429%7%
45%2%17%168
65+34%10%40%2%14%247
Female31%10%41%1%17%388
Male30%13%41%3%13%300
Carmichael Riaz Oliphant Hunt Undecided
DON VALLEY WEST
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All Voters Decided & Leaning
30%
11%
41% 2%
15%
35%
13%
47%
4%
A8
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW
CPC70%29%1%
NDP63%18%19%
LPC64%27%9%
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?
Carmichael Riaz Oliphant Hunt Undecided
DON VALLEY WEST
8%
5%
7%
9%
70%
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
ROYAL GALIPEAU (CPC)NANCY TREMBLAY (NDP)ANDREW LESLIE (LPC)RAPHAEL MORIN (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3420%12%39%7%
22%131
35-4926%16%25%6%27%129
50-6429%15%30%7%19%196
65+33%14%34%3%15%204
Female28%13%32%6%22%362
Male24%16%32%7%
22%298
ROYAL GALIPEAU (CPC)NANCY TREMBLAY (NDP)ANDREW LESLIE (LPC)RAPHAEL MORIN (GPC)UNDECIDED
Certain28%16%33%6%18%
Likely36%7%31%2%
25%
Unlikely2%0%5%0%61%
Might14%7%
35%32%44%
Galipeau Tremblay Leslie Morin Undecided
A9
ORLEANS
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All Voters Decided & Leaning
26%
14%
32%
6% 22%
33%
19%
40%
8%
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW
CPC85%7%8%
NDP62%23%14%
LPC68%26%5%
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?
A10
ORLEANS
Galipeau Tremblay Leslie Morin Undecided
10%
9%
14%
3%
64%
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
A12
ROSHAN NALLARATNAM (CPC)DAN HARRIS (NDP)BILL BLAIR (LPC)TOMMY TAYLOR (GPC)UNDECIDED
Certain17%34%34%13%3%
Likely26%30%37%6%1%
Unlikely16%34%39%11%0%
Might16%24%55%6%0%
ROSHAN NALLARATNAM (CPC)DAN HARRIS (NDP)BILL BLAIR (LPC)TOMMY TAYLOR (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3413%37%34%15%1%105
35-4923%35%26%13%4%141
50-6418%30%38%11%2%202
65+16%31%41%9%2%206
Female18%28%39%13%2%356
Male18%39%30%11%2%298
Nallaratnam Harris Blair Taylor Undecided
SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All Voters Decided & Leaning
18%
33%
35%
2% 12%
21%
37%
40%
3%
A13
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW
CPC72%18%10%
NDP49%39%11%
LPC63%24%14%
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?
Nallaratnam Harris Blair Taylor Undecided
SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST
27%
9%
4%0%
59%
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
A14
KARIM JIVRAJ (CPC)JENNIFER HOLLETT (NDP)CHRYSTIA FREELAND (LPC)NICK WRIGHT (GPC)UNDECIDED
Certain8%
43%32%3%16%
Likely46%21%21%2%9%
Unlikely4%23%19%0%54%
Might21%16%42%0%19%
KARIM JIVRAJ (CPC)JENNIFER HOLLETT (NDP)CHRYSTIA FREELAND (LPC)NICK WRIGHT (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3420%22%38%5%
20%85
35-495%
40%31%1%
19%131
50-6413%44%24%2%18%202
65+8%
45%32%2%13%226
Female12%37%33%1%
18%350
Male12%38%30%3%18%294
Jivraj Hollett Freeland Wright Undecided
UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All Voters Decided & Leaning
12%
37%
31% 2%
18%
15%
43%
39%
3%
A15
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?
UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE
Jivraj Hollett Freeland Wright Undecided
27%
9%
4%0%
59%
CPC83%15%2%
NDP55%41%5%
LPC63%30%6%
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
CertainLikelyMight
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Naval Bajaj of the Conservative Party Harbaljit Singh Kahlon of the NDP
Raj Grewal of the Liberal PartyKyle Lacroix of the Green Party
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Naval Bajaj of the Conservative Party Harbaljit Singh Kahlon of the NDP
Raj Grewal of the Liberal PartyKyle Lacroix of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Don’t know
BRAMPTON EAST SCRIPT
A16
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
CertainLikelyMight
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today? Dave van Kesteren of the Conservative Party
Tony Walsh of the NDP Katie Omstead of the Liberal Party
Mark Vercouteren of the Green Party Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Dave van Kesteren of the Conservative PartyTony Walsh of the NDP
Katie Omstead of the Liberal Party Mark Vercouteren of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Don’t know
CHATHAM-KENT--LEAMINGTON SCRIPT
A17
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
CertainLikelyMight
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
John Carmichael of the Conservative Party Syeda Riaz of the NDP
Rob Oliphant of the Liberal Party Natalie Hunt of the Green Party
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
John Carmichael of the Conservative Party Syeda Riaz of the NDP
Rob Oliphant of the Liberal Party Natalie Hunt of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Don’t know
DON VALLEY WEST SCRIPT
A18
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
CertainLikelyMight
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today? Royal Galipeau of the Conservative Party Nancy Tremblay of the NDP Andrew Leslie of the Liberal Party Raphael Morin of the Green Party
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Royal Galipeau of the Conservative Party Nancy Tremblay of the NDP Andrew Leslie of the Liberal Party Raphael Morin of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Don’t know
ORLEANS SCRIPT
A19
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
CertainLikelyMight
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today? Roshan Nallaratnam of the Conservative Party
Dan Harris of the NDP Bill Blair of the Liberal Party
Tommy Taylor of the Green Party Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Roshan Nallaratnam of the Conservative Party Dan Harris of the NDP
Bill Blair of the Liberal Party Tommy Taylor of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Don’t know
SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST SCRIPT
A20
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
CertainLikelyMight
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Karim Jivraj of the Conservative Party Jennifer Hollett of the NDP
Chrystia Freeland of the Liberal PartyNick Wright of the Green Party
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Karim Jivraj of the Conservative Party Jennifer Hollett of the NDP
Chrystia Freeland of the Liberal PartyNick Wright of the Green Party
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Don’t know
UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE SCRIPT
A21
© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.
Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.