Mainstreet - Spadina-Fort York
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CHOW A CONTENDER FOR SPADINA-FORT YORK June 30th, 2015. A new Mainstreet poll in the new riding of Spadina-Fort York shows Olivia Chow in position to take her former seat back to the NDP from the Liberals’ Adam Vaughan. With 606 respondents the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 3.87%, 19/20. Mainstreet tested Chow against the current Liberal candidate and the 2014 by election candidates for the Green Party and Conservative Party. Only the Liberals have nominated a candidate in Spadina-Fort York. Chow was previously the MP for Trinity-Spadina which makes up much of the new seat. "To paraphrase Yogi Berra, it's deja vu all over again for Olivia Chow. Early scenario polls prior to the 2014 municipal election in Toronto had her leading and these results are similar. Whether Ms. Chow runs for MP is yet to be determined and whether she could maintain similar numbers through the election in October is another question”, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet. "At this point, with a little under four months until the election, it looks like a Chow run in her old riding would help the NDP. If she decides to run for the NDP, the race for Spadina-Fort York becomes one to watch between two well known, well liked political heavyweights.” Highlights: - Olivia Chow leads 36% to 30% over Adam Vaughan if she entered the race - Among decided voters it is 44% to 36% - Vaughan leads Chow among undecided voters; though it is within the margin of error -30- For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected] Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] Methodology The poll surveyed a random sample of Spadina-Fort York residents by Smart IVR™ on June 27th, 2015. Mainstreet sampled a mixture of cell phones and landlines; results were weighted for age and gender. About Mainstreet Mainstreet is a national publ ic research firm. With 20 years of political experien ce at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s T oronto mayoral election and February’s by-election in Sudbury.
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A new Mainstreet poll in Spadina-Fort York shows Olivia Chow in position to take her former seat back to the NDP from the Liberals’ Adam Vaughan.
Transcript of Mainstreet - Spadina-Fort York
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CHOW A CONTENDER FOR SPADINA-FORT YORK
June 30th, 2015. A new Mainstreet poll in the new riding of Spadina-Fort York shows Olivia Chow in position to take her former seat back to the NDP from the Liberals Adam Vaughan. With 606 respondents the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 3.87%, 19/20.
Mainstreet tested Chow against the current Liberal candidate and the 2014 by election candidates for the Green Party and Conservative Party. Only the Liberals have nominated a candidate in Spadina-Fort York. Chow was previously the MP for Trinity-Spadina which makes up much of the new seat.
"To paraphrase Yogi Berra, it's deja vu all over again for Olivia Chow. Early scenario polls prior to the 2014 municipal election in Toronto had her leading and these results are similar. Whether Ms. Chow runs for MP is yet to be determined and whether she could maintain similar numbers through the election in October is another question, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet.
"At this point, with a little under four months until the election, it looks like a Chow run in her old riding would help the NDP. If she decides to run for the NDP, the race for Spadina-Fort York becomes one to watch between two well known, well liked political heavyweights.
Highlights:- Olivia Chow leads 36% to 30% over Adam Vaughan if she entered the race- Among decided voters it is 44% to 36%- Vaughan leads Chow among undecided voters; though it is within the margin of error
-30-
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected] for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] MethodologyThe poll surveyed a random sample of Spadina-Fort York residents by Smart IVR on June 27th, 2015. Mainstreet sampled a mixture of cell phones and landlines; results were weighted for age and gender. About MainstreetMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election and Februarys by-election in Sudbury.
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If the following candidates ran who would you vote for if an election were held today?
BREAKDOWNS18-3433%3%9%27%28%64
35-4932%4%12%30%23%104
50-6441%6%14%33%7%244
65+42%8%13%29%7%194
Female38%5%10%29%18%317
Male35%5%14%30%16%289
OLIVIA CHOW (NDP)CAMILLE LABCHUK (GREEN)BENJAMIN SHARMA (CONSERVATIVE)ADAM VAUGHAN (LIBERAL)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
40
30
20
10
0All Voters Decided Only
36%
30%
12%
5% 17%
44%
36%
14%
6%
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And which party are you leaning toward voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
4%
16%
19%
11%
51%
BREAKDOWNSCPC50%31%18%
LPC71%23%6%
NDP53%31%16%
STRONGMIGHT CHANGEUNDECIDED
GP53%39%8%
