Mainstreet Research poll: Nov. 19
-
Upload
citynewstoronto -
Category
Documents
-
view
28 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Mainstreet Research poll: Nov. 19
-
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM EASTERN, NOVEMBER 19, 2015PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
-
METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet Research surveyed a random sample of 2,718 Canadians by Smart IVR on November 16, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Results were weighed by language, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.This poll has a
margin of error of +/- 1.88 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
ATTRIBUTION
Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.
REGIONAL MARGINS OF ERROR
ATLANTIC+/- 5.23%, 19 times out of 20
QUBEC+/- 3.84%, 19 times out of 20
ONTARIO+/- 3.9%, 19 times out of 20
PRAIRIES+/- 5.22%, 19 times out of 20
ALBERTA+/- 5.25%, 19 times out of 20
BRITISH COLUMBIA+/- 5.01%, 19 times out of 20
-
CANADIANS PREFER BOMBING MISSION - BUT MORE APPROVE OF TRAINING MISSION
November 19, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new national Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds Canadians would choose a bombing mission over a training mission 38% to 28% - but more approve of the training mission, 70%, than the bombing mission, 60%, overall. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.88 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Support is more intense for the bombing mission than the training mission, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. But the training mission has wider support. Either way, most Canadians believe Canada should be taking a role in the ght against ISIS. Only 8% of Canadians would support no action at all.
Opinion is split on Canadian action on refugees. 46% of Canadians are dissatised (42% satised) and 53% disapprove of the governments plan to bring in 25,000 refugees by the end of the year.
Conservatives have said the refugee plan needs to be slowed down for proper security screening, continued Maggi. This has been repeated in the United States with headlines showing some states wont accept refugees. Our earlier polling showed strong support for bringing refugees to Canada but after the attacks in Paris security is now a higher concern.
We asked Canadians if they thought an attack was likely here at home, 28% said its very likely and 38%. Most expect the threat will come from overseas, 41% see international terrorism as a greater threat than domestic terrorism, 34%, despite the fact Canada has faced signicantly more domestic terrorist attacks.
Most, 63%, are not concerned about an attack occurring at their home or workplace. And 42% of Canadians do not believe Canada is ready to confront a terrorist attack, while 26% do, and 32% dont know, nished Maggi. About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30-
Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]
A3
-
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
18-3436%16%15%24%10%367
35-4946%16%14%17%9%483
50-6452%15%12%12%9%846
65+48%15%11%15%11%
1022
Female41%16%16%16%11%1416
Male49%15%10%18%8%
1302
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
BC43%13%16%23%6%383
AB53%12%11%14%9%349
Prairies51%14%12%14%10%353
ON45%17%12%16%11%630
Atlantic40%18%15%16%12%351
QC43%15%15%19%9%652
A4
Currently Canadian aircraft are carrying out a bombing mission against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of the bombing mission?
60%
30%
10%
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
-
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURE
18-3440%27%2%14%17%
35-4943%26%12%14%5%
50-6448%27%9%9%7%
65+41%28%14%10%7%
Female36%30%9%13%12%
Male50%24%8%12%7%
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURE
BC38%25%8%14%16%
AB41%29%8%13%8%
PR41%29%8%13%9%
ON45%27%9%11%8%
ATL40%30%12%10%8%
QC44%25%8%14%9%
A5
Some have suggested that Canada's role should be training local ground troops from the area to ght against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of a training mission?
70%
21%
9%
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
-
BOMBING MISSIONTRAINING MISSIONSOMETHING ELSENOTHING AT ALLNOT SURE
18-3434%28%18%12%9%
35-4942%22%22%8%7%
50-6437%34%15%6%8%
65+40%30%15%5%10%
Female35%28%18%7%12%
Male41%28%17%9%5%
BOMBING MISSIONTRAINING MISSIONSOMETHING ELSENOTHING AT ALLNOT SURE
BC38%29%20%8%5%
AB45%22%20%6%8%
PR36%34%16%6%8%
ON38%28%16%8%11%
ATL32%34%17%8%9%
QC37%28%18%9%8%
A6
And if you had to choose Canada's role between a bombing mission, a training mission, something else, or nothing at all, what would you choose?
Bombing Mission Training Mission Something Else Nothing At All Not Sure
38%
28%
17%
8%
9%
-
A7
And, how satised are you with the government of Canada's response so far to Syria's refugee crisis?
VERY SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT DISSATISFIEDVERY DISSATISFIEDNOT SURE
18-3414%23%16%32%15%
35-4919%27%17%26%11%
50-6418%24%17%28%13%
65+22%21%19%27%10%
Female14%25%16%30%15%
Male22%24%18%27%10%
VERY SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT DISSATISFIEDVERY DISSATISFIEDNOT SURE
BC14%25%17%28%16%
AB14%21%15%39%11%
PR15%21%16%37%11%
ON20%24%18%27%12%
ATL20%24%17%26%13%
QC18%27%18%25%12%
42%
46%
12%
Satisfied Dissatisfied Not Sure
-
A8
The Government of Canada has announced plans to settle 25,000 refugees in Canada before the end of the year. Do you approve or disapprove of this plan?
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURE
18-3429%10%23%30%8%
35-4923%20%14%40%3%
50-6420%22%15%39%4%
65+21%21%17%38%4%
Female22%18%19%36%6%
Male26%18%16%37%4%
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURE
BC27%19%15%30%10%
AB19%12%20%45%4%
PR19%12%19%45%5%
ON23%19%18%36%4%
ATL23%24%14%34%5%
QC26%18%17%35%4%
42%
53%
5%
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
-
A10
And how likely do you think a terrorist attack in Canada is? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or not likely at all?
VERY LIKELYSOMEWHAT LIKELYSOMEWHAT UNLIKELYNOT LIKELY AT ALLNOT SURE
18-3420%35%25%14%6%
35-4926%41%24%6%3%
50-6438%37%16%5%4%
65+29%42%20%4%4%
Female28%44%19%6%4%
Male28%33%24%10%4%
VERY LIKELYSOMEWHAT LIKELYSOMEWHAT UNLIKELYNOT LIKELY AT ALLNOT SURE
BC27%40%22%7%3%
AB36%31%20%8%5%
PR36%33%18%8%6%
ON27%39%22%8%4%
ATL23%42%22%9%4%
QC25%40%23%8%4%
Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely Not At All Likely Not Sure
28%
38%
22%
8%4%
-
HOMEGROWN TERRORISMINTERNATIONAL TERRORISMNOT SURE
18-3434%40%26%
35-4930%47%24%
50-6437%37%26%
65+35%41%24%
Female30%41%29%
Male38%41%21%
HOMEGROWN TERRORISMINTERNATIONAL TERRORISMNOT SURE
BC30%44%27%
AB34%40%26%
PR35%42%23%
ON36%39%25%
ATL36%36%28%
QC32%44%24%
A11
And in your opinion what is a greater threat to Canada? Is it homegrown terrorism, terrorism carried out by Canadians, or international terrorism, terrorism carried out by foreigners?
34%
41%
25%
Homegrown Terrorism International Terrorism Not Sure
-
YESNONOT SURE
18-3425%61%14%
35-4921%63%17%
50-6418%64%18%
65+16%64%21%
Female20%63%18%
Male21%62%17%
YESNONOT SURE
BC10%73%17%
AB25%56%19%
PR10%82%8%
ON25%57%18%
ATL16%68%17%
QC20%63%17%
A12
And, are you personally concerned about a terrorist attack in the area where you live or work?
20%
63%
17%
Yes No Not Sure
-
YESNONOT SURE
18-3436%39%25%
35-4925%42%33%
50-6421%46%34%
65+20%43%38%
Female20%43%37%
Male32%42%26%
YESNONOT SURE
BC30%43%27%
AB24%54%23%
PR24%51%25%
ON25%40%36%
ATL27%36%37%
QC27%40%33%
A12
And, in your opinion, is Canada prepared to deal with a terrorist attack, or not?
26%
42%
32%
Yes No Not Sure
-
A13
SCRIPT
Currently Canadian aircraft are carrying out a bombing mission against the Islamic State, alsoknown as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of the bombing mission?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve
Somewhat DissapproveStrongly Dissapprove
Not Sure
Some have suggested that Canadas role should be training local ground troops from the area toght against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of a training
mission?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve
Somewhat DissapproveStrongly Dissapprove
Not Sure
And if you had to choose Canadas role between a bombing mission, a training mission, somethingelse, or nothing at all, what would you choose?
Bombing MissionTraining MissionSomething ElseNothing At All
Not Sure
And, how satised are you with the government of Canadas response so far to Syrias refugeecrisis?
Very SatisedSomewhat Satised
Somewhat DissatisedStrongly Dissatised
Not Sure
The Government of Canada has announced plans to settle 25,000 refugees in Canada before theend of the year. Do you approve or disapprove of this plan?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve
Somewhat DissapproveStrongly Dissapprove
Not Sure
-
A14
SCRIPT
And how likely do you think a terrorist attack in Canada is? Is it very likely, somewhat likely,somewhat unlikely or not likely at all?
Very LikelySomewhat Likely
Somewhat UnlikelyNot Likely At All
Not Sure
And in your opinion what is a greater threat to Canada? Is it homegrown terrorism, terrorismcarried out by Canadians, or international terrorism, terrorism carried out by foreigners?
Homegrown TerrorismInternational Terrorism
Not Sure
And, are you personally concerned about a terrorist attack in the area where you live or work?
YesNo
Not Sure
And, in your opinion, is Canada prepared to deal with a terrorist attack, or not?
YesNo
Not Sure
-
CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITEmainstreetresearch.ca
TWITTER @MainStResearch
FACEBOOKfb.com/mainstresearch
2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.