Main Technological Trends in Digitization and Industry 4.0 ... · connected, intelligent systems...
Transcript of Main Technological Trends in Digitization and Industry 4.0 ... · connected, intelligent systems...
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Bernd DworschakFraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering IAO, Stuttgart
7th German-Brazilian Dialogue on Science, Research and InnovationWorking and learning in a digital worldSao Paulo, 31 October 2018
Main Technological Trends in Digitization and Industry 4.0 Affecting Work and Jobs
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DigitizationA preliminary working definition
means the process of diffusion of information and commuicationtechnologies (ICT) to all areas of life and work and the correspondingsocio-economic change;
means a qualitatively changed process of informatisation; that meansgeneration, reproduction, development and processing of informationand information systems;
is characterised by digital networking of socio-technical applicationsystems with (mobile) devices;
means the application of working systems with increasingintelligent/self-learning technical systems parts, wherein distributeddecisions on people and technology influence each other mutually.
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The digital transformation of industryIncreasing automatisation by combination of classical technologies andartificial intellegence
Source: http://www.rolandberger.de/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_The_digital_transformation_of_industry_20150315.pdf
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Industry 4.0Technology framework
SMART
FACTORY
ROBUST
NETWORKSCLOUD
COMPUTING
IT-SECURITY
EMBEDDED
SYSTEMS
CPS
Sources: www.kuka.de; DFKI; McKinsey; Fraunhofer IAO
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World Economic Forum: The Future of Jobs Report 2018Technologies by proportion of companies likely to adopt them by 2022 (projected)
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Retail
BanksIT&Media
Travel
Insurance
Professional Services
Catering
Education
Real estate
Construction
Government
Energy
Production
Agriculture
Health
Transport
Mining, Oil, Chemistry
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 1 2 3 4 5
Disruption map by industriesDigital transformation will change industries considerably
Infl
uen
ceo
n t
he
bu
sin
ess
mo
del
Time (in years)
SHORT FUSE – BIG BANG
SHORT FUSE – SMALL BANG LONG FUSE – SMALL BANG
Quellen: Heads! und Deloitte Digital
LONG FUSE – BIG BANG
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Future Work: Trends for designing Industry 4.0
Context adaptive Intuitive
Connected Assisting
Strongly increasingadaptability of workingplaces with respect tocontext, people and
tasks
Trends towards newforms of interaction
at work
Increasing importanceof physical and digital
assistant systems
Increasing importanceof real time displays ofworking processes and
objects in a factory
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Future Work Trends: Connected working placesPeople, machines and systems exchange data in real time
No IT systems without seamless connectionof systems as well as process and product data
Connected objects & real time usage ofrelevant production parameter e.g. feedback of production events in theproduction control
Production concepts 4.0 beyond Lean, Acceptance of employees if transparent, qualified for connected work andinterpretation of data
Background
Design
Opportunities
Vernetzt
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Future Work Trends: Context sensitive working placesWorking systems react on their environment in the future
Differences of employees and processes as wellas their demands not considered today
Usage of production context forpersonalisation of working area, e.g. adaption of working height, light situationand distribution of information foremployees
Establishing rules concerning the usage ofperson-related data and identification ofpotential rooms for individualisation
Opportunities
Background
Design
Kontextadaptiv
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Future Work Trends: Assisting working placesWorking places support workers – also for further training
Richness of variants by means of increasingindividualisaton of products
Digital and physical assistance –Feedback-based, beneficial forlearning, adaptive assistant systemssupporting workers in the process (AR/VR, Exos)
Distribution of control between people andtechnology, development of assisted workingcontent vs. short intervals, development ofLearning scenarios in the workingprocess/at work by means of assisstant systems
Opportunities
Background
Design
Assistierend
Bildquelle: Porsche
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Future Work Trends: Intuitive working placesWorking places tomorrow to be operated as easy like a smartphone
Increasing complexity of process-related IT systems for workers
Intuitive interaction concepts usinggestures, language, touches and brainlinked with mobile devices and wearablesas natural tools in the working process
Identification of needed competences for theinteraction with the new means and devices aswell as interaction concepts for the usage ofmobile devices such as BYOD
Background
Design
Opportunities
Intuitiv
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For 47 percent of today´s US employees
a high risk for digitisation/automation of theirworking activities exists.
Concept of technologicalunemploymentKeynes (1933), Ricardo (1819)
»Technological progress is outperforming the creationof new working activities and places of employment.«
Increasingrisk of substitution byindustrial automation
Work is changing…consistently and once again.
Source: Frey, Osborne: The Future of Employment, 2013
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Forecast quantitative effects - BMAS 2030:Change workforce population 2014-2030 by industries (in 1.000) (selection)
-372
-285
-28
8
26
62
425
-23
-55
151
-6
98
-45
52
106
263
-600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
MACHINERY
POST AND COURIER SERVICES
VEHICLES
FINANCIAL SERVICES
TRANSPORT, STORAGE
OTHER COMPANY SERVICES
TOTAL
Basic scenario (migrants) Scenario Accelerated digitalisation
Quelle: Vogler-Ludwig, K. et al. 2016: Arbeitsmarkt 2030. Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt im digitalen Zeitalter. Prognose 2016. Kurzfassung. Open-Access-Seite mit allen Projektpublikationen: http://www.economix.org/de/projekte/prognose-2030.html
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Potential paths of developmentThe polarisation thesis
Automation
scenario
Specialisation
scenario
Control and management tasks are taken over bydigital technology.
Workers are led by digital technology – „directedwork“.
Digital technology decides, experience is not important.
Comparatively simple »residual tasks« at middle-skilledlevel, dequalification
Digital technology initiates and delivers information tosupport decisions.
Workers decide, experience ist still important for decisionsand problem solutions.
Digital technology is supporting decisions, is used astool, experience is basis for coordinated decisions,
Potential for job enrichment and holistic work
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Learning factories 4.0
Simulations
Assistant systems
Challenge: Designing Industry 4.0 applications beneficial for learning andfocussed on competence development!
Fields of action of competence developmentWork-integrated learning in the smart factory
System competence by understandingconnected, intelligent systems
Understanding processes for physical anddigital processes in cyber-physical systems (CPS)
Interdisciplinary/cross-functional working andlearning, in particular IT, electrical engineeringand mechanics
Generic competences for cooperation, communication and organisation in CPS
Strengthening decision-making by autonomyversus intelligent systems
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»FUTURE WORK LAB«Innovation Lab for Work , People and Technology at Fraunhofer Stuttgart
Start-up funding:
Demo World
Parcours 2 »2025 Technology+«
Centre for competence development and counselling»Learning World«
Module 1 Module 2 Module 3 Module 4 Module 5 Module X
Ideas world
Think Tank und shielded area for Research and Innovation focussingon Labour and Human-Technology-Interaction
»FU
TU
RE W
OR
K L
AB
«
Possible Value-Partner:
Businessesas supplier and consumer
Social partner Organizations Chambers
Parcours 3 »2025 Human+«
Parcours 1 »Today+«
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Learning WorldTechnologies and Topics
Human-Machine-Interaction
Assembly Sensors Engineering
Safety ErgonomicsProductionPlanning
CompetenceDevelopment
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Learning World of the Future Work LabOffers for companies
We evaluate existingtraining measures in your company againstthe background of ourexperiences on appropriate formatsfrom the Future Work Lab
We adjust your currentcompetence managementagainst the background ofIndustry and Logistics 4.0.
• Which new working tasks occur?• Which competences become
relevant?• Which competence profiles and
gaps occur?• Which formats of learning can be
taken into account?
ReadjustingCompetence Management
DevelopingCompetences
EvaluatingCompetences
Make use of theFuture Work Lab formeasures ofcompetencedevelopment for a series oftechnologies andtopics
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Bernd DworschakFraunhofer Institute forIndustrial Engineering IAOTeam Leader Competence ManagementNobelstraße 1270569 Stuttgart
Tel: +49 711 [email protected]://www.iao.fraunhofer.de
Contact
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Backup
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World Economic Forum: The Future of Jobs Report 2018Key findings
Drivers of change: ubiquitous high-speed mobile internet; artificial intelligence; widespread adoption of big data analytics; and cloud technology
Accelerated technology adoption
Trends in robotization: stationary robots, non-humanoid land robots and fully automated aerial drones
Changing geography of production, distribution and value chains
Changing employment types
A new human-machine frontier within existing tasks
A net positive outlook for jobs
Emerging in-demand roles
Growing skills instability
A reskilling imperative
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World Economic Forum: The Future of Jobs Report 2018Country Profile Brazil
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World Economic Forum: The Future of Jobs Report 2018Country Profile Brazil
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World Economic Forum: The Future of Jobs Report 2018Country Profile Germany
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World Economic Forum: The Future of Jobs Report 2018Country Profile Germany