Machine learning, social learning and self-driving...

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@JackS’lgoe Machine learning, social learning and self-driving cars

Transcript of Machine learning, social learning and self-driving...

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@JackS'lgoe

Machinelearning,sociallearningandself-drivingcars

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Outline

•  Responsibleinnova'onassociallearning•  Socialisingmachinelearning•  Self-drivingasa‘solvableproblem’•  Self-drivingasmisnomer•  Limitstoresponsiveness

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Source:electrek.com

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“Perfectsafetyisreallyanimpossiblegoal.”ElonMusk,Sept2016

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Being“inBeta”“Becausetheprobabilityissosmall,thereisnoprac'calpossibilityofdeterminingthisfailureratedirectly-i.e.,bybuilding,letussay,1,000reactors,opera'ngthemfor10,000yearsandtabula'ngtheiropera'nghistories”.

(AlvinWeinberg,1972)“Eachnuclearpowerplantisitsowntestcase.Itmaybecategorizedasanimplicitexperiment,anditsmostrevealingcaseistheaccident”.

(KrohnandWeingart,1987)

“Emergingprac'cesdefine‘rules’,ratherthanrulescontrollingprac'ces.“

(Wynne1988)

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Thewhat,thehowandthewhyofinnova'on

Products•  Whatarethelikelyrisks

andbenefits?•  Howwilltherisksand

benefitsbedistributed?•  Whatotherimpactscan

wepredict?•  Howmightthese

changeinthefuture?•  Whatdon’tweknow

about?•  Whatmightwenever

knowabout?

Processes•  Howshouldresearch

andinnova'ontakeplace?

•  Howshouldstandardsbedrawnupandapplied?

•  Howshouldrisksandbenefitsbedefinedandmeasured?

•  Whoisincontrol?•  Whowilltake

responsibilityifthingsgowrong?

•  Whatifwearewrong?

Purposes•  Whyshouldthis

researchbeundertaken?

•  Whowillbenefit?•  Whatarethe

alterna'ves?

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Responsibleinnova'onis‘collec'vecareforthefuturethroughthestewardshipofinnova'oninthepresent’

(S'lgoe,OwenandMacnaghten2013)(alsoS'lgoeandGuston2016)

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An'cipa'on Inclusion

Reflexivity Responsiveness

Responsibleinnova'on

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Limitstoresponsiveness

•  Inflexibility,irreversibility,commitmentandotherformsoflock-in

•  Lackofreflexivity•  ‘Ins'tu'onalvoid’(Hajer)•  Presump'onsofnoveltyactagainstlearning(Rayner)

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Approachestosociallearning

1.  Engineering–machineslearnaboutsociety2.  Educa'onal–learninghappenssocially3.  Ins'tu'onal– socialsystemsneedtolearn– AircrabvsNuclearpower(Perrow)

4.  Poli'cal– learningtakesplaceinpublic–  ‘Experimentalgovernment’(Deweyetal)

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Socialisingmachinelearning

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What’snew?

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2015

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GartnerHypeCycle2015

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Levelsofautoma'on

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“Howquicklycanwegetthisintopeople’shands?Ifyoureadthepapers,youseemaybeit’sthreeyears,maybeit’sthirtyyears.AndIamheretotellyouthathonestly,it’sabitofboth,”

ChrisUrmson(ex-Google),March2016

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‘Solving’self-driving

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Source:TheEconomist,2016

Ifsafetyistheques'on,areself-drivingcarstheanswer?

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SeeinglikeaTesla

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MobileyeandTeslapartcompany“Weneedtobethereonallaspectsofhowthetechnologyisbeingused,andnotsimplyprovidingtechnology”“Thisincidentinvolvedalaterallycrossingvehicle,whichcurrent-genera'onAEB[automa'cemergencybraking]systemsarenotdesignedtoactuateupon”

Mobileye

“AutonomousvehiclesisanAIcompu'ngproblem.It’snotadetec'onproblem”

Nvidia

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Modesofautomo'velearningRule-following Rule-making

‘Autonomousvehicles’? Technicalandpoli'calentanglement

Technicalandpoli'cal‘autonomy’

Modesofmachinelearning

Formallogic End-to-endlearning

RelevantExperDse Domainexper'se,ergonomicsetc

Drivingasagame

Pedagogy Tradi'onal Autodidac'c

SocialconsDtuDon Favoursincumbents Upstartsandstart-ups

Strategy Incrementalinnova'on Disrup've,permissionlessinnova'on

Historicaltouchpoints Automatedhighways DARPAGrandChallenges

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Escapingtheriskframe

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Machinecontrolandsocialcontrol

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Alterna'velearning

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‘It'samazingtechnology…ButTeslashouldn'tmaketheircustomerstest

pilots… [Autopilot]allowsyoutothinkit'sworking.Andatahigherspeed,youcan'treact.It'salreadyhardenoughtoreact

whenyouarefocused,thatwhenyouarenot,anditerrs,it'sover.’

MarkMolthan,crashedAugust2016

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Imagineddeficits

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Thetyrannyofurgency

We“cannotwaitforperfect…Weshouldbedesperateforanythingwecanfindtosavepeople'slives,"

NHTSAAdministratorMarkRosekind

“Ifanybodylegislatesagainstit,theyshouldprobablygotojail”

EngineerAlainKornhauser

“Speedisoftheessencehere…We’reinaveryimportantraceagainstAsianandEuropeancountriesthataremovingforwardwiththistechnology”

SenatorGaryPeters

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‘Dothemath’‘Ifanyonebotheredtodothemath(obviously,youdidnot)theywouldrealizethatoftheover1Mautodeathsperyearworldwide,approximatelyhalfamillionpeoplewouldhavebeensavediftheTeslaautopilotwasuniversallyavailable.Please,take5minsanddothebloodymathbeforeyouwriteanar'clethatmisleadsthepublic.’

ElonMusk,July2016‘If,inwri'ngsomear'clethat'snega've,you...dissuadepeoplefromusinganautonomousvehicle,you'rekillingpeople’

ElonMusk,October2016

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Boundingtheexperiment?Broaderenvironment,economyandsociety

Landscape

Infrastructure

Otherroadusers

Otherdrivers

Self-drivingcaranduser

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Ques'onsforsociallearning:aresearchagenda

•  Transi'ons•  An'cipa'ngtransportsystemsandcarusage– Whatmightbethepressuresonmachinereadableinfrastructure?

•  Scale•  Thegovernanceofwhat?– Sobware,hardware,system?

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An'cipatorygovernance

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Histories •  Pre-history(Wetmore2003;Vinsel,forthcoming)

–  Integra'ngvehiclesandinfrastructure•  Automa'onofcarsystems

–  Airbags–  ABS/Trac'oncontrol–  Cruisecontrol–  ADAS

•  2004,2005,2007:Darpagrandchallenges•  2008àMachinelearning

–  Neuralnetworksandimagerecogni'on–  GPUs–  Data

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Thecomplexityoftransi'ons

•  Closed,homogenoussystemsareeasytoimagine;Mixed,opensystemsarealmostimpossible

•  Thehand-offproblem•  Smarttechcanmakepeopledumb

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outline•  Teslaphoto

–  Hardwareandsobware–poli'csofnovelty–  Itisaworkinprogress-learninginpublic–andinnova'ng

•  Crash•  Emergingsociotechnicalsystem•  Responsivenessandsociallearning•  ImaginariesofAVs•  Governance

–  Stateasexperimenter,notjustlaboratory–  Safety–limitstoresponsiveness?–  Data-sharing

•  DataisthecurrencyofAVinnova'on–  Condi'onsforexperimenta'on–  Sobwarevshardware–productliability–  Democra'singimagina'on–  Whobenefits?Whatarelikelytobethetransfersofpowerandmoney?Socialcons'tu'on?

Techaslegisla'on?

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PerrowontheNTSB

•  Whydoaeroplanesgetsaferwhilenuclearpowerdoesn’t?– Accidentsarenormal–notout-of-the-blue

•  Learningascrucial– “pastaccidentsalsofailaswarningsifthewarningisavailabletoonlyonepartofthesystem”–andthatwasaproblemwithTMI

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Star'ngwithtransport

•  Infrastructure?•  Condi'onsforacceptability?

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U.S.AirCarrierSafetyIndices,1920-1975

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‘NeverNeutral’

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Ethicsandtrolleyproblems

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An'cipa'on•  Par'cipatory,notpredic've•  Understandingexpecta'ons,promises

Inclusion•  Publicengagement•  User-driveninnova'on•  Value-centreddesign

Reflexivity• 1stand2ndorder

Responsiveness•  Answeringandreac'ng•  Understandingthepoli'caleconomyofinnova'on

Responsible(researchand)Innova'on

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Therulesoftheroad

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Newlaboratoryrulesforself-drivingcars?

•  Sobwarevshardware–  Productliabilityrules

•  Ethicalrules–  GermanEthicsCommission

1.  propertydamagebeforepersonalinjury.

2.  noclassifica'onofpeoplebysize,ageetc.

3.  “Ifsomethinghappens,themanufacturerisliable”

•  AIredflags•  Black-boxes

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•  Ini'alUSrules.NHTSA:“Theagencydoesnotbelievethatself-drivingvehiclesarecurrentlyreadytobedrivenonpublicroadsforpurposesotherthantes'ng.”…un'lTuesday

•  Responsibilitymovingfromstatetofederallevel– 15-pointvoluntarychecklistformanufacturers

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SeeinglikeaTesla

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“Ifanything,Uber’sdriversaretheR&DforUber’sdriverlessfuture.Theyarespendingtheirlaborandcapitalinvestments(cars)ontheirownfutureunemployment.”–DouglasRushkoff

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•  NewCaliforniarules–talkinBerkeleyabouthowmisguidedthismoveis…•  Thiscouldevenbeaseparatepaper–withHarrySurden?•  Fornow,thepointisthatthingsareframedintermsofsafetyonly

–  Goodtostartwiththis–butaswithTeslastory,askwhatwecanlearnabouttechgoingwrongforthegovernanceoftechgoingright.–  Safetyframeisahugebarriertosociallearning–  WerefusetodemocraDsethediscussionofbenefits

•  •  •  TheCaliforniaDMVoriginallydrabedregula'onsthatdemandedsubstan'alcollabora'onbetweencompaniesandthestateonthetermsand

conductofthesocialexperiment.•  The‘lawlag’isobenactuallyaperformance–‘gexngbehind’thetechnology,beforeitisdefined•  A'ghteningofthesafetyframe•  Makingdeploymentdefinedasusebymembersofthepublic)easier•  AccidentsandDisengagements

–  (Theserequirementsares'llintheregula'ons–don’tunderstandtherepor'ng)•  Mademorepermissive–innova'onmorePermissionless

–  ‘Embracing’thetechnologyactuallymeansdistancingoneselffromit–disengaging•  Presumestechnologiesaredefinedascurrentlyimagined–level4and5,ratherthanawork-in-progress.Presumestechnologicalcompleteness

–  Interes'ngdefini'onof“opera'onaldesigndomain”,asopposedtoreal-worldcondi'ons–  Interes'ngthattrainingisrequiredforAVdrivers–  Languageof‘accidents’hasbeenreplacedbythatof‘collisions’–  Datarecorderincluded

•  •  CaliforniaannouncedinMarch2017theirinten'ontorelaxthesecontrols.Instead,theywouldputtheonusonmanufacturerstodeclarethattheir

carsweresafeandfully-insuredandtrustthatthelegalsystemwouldworkoutques'onsofliabilityandunintendedconsequences.Thethreatofbeingsuedisimaginedtobethestrongestlever.

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Socialconstruc'onasperformance

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Escapingtheriskframe

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OceanObs19 Overview : Observing Technology Innovaon-Satellite

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“Innova’on: A Prac’cal View” Files... · 1.Innovaon is Problemmac • Innovaon simply for the sake of introducing innovaon is 4me-consuming, costly and unproducve. • But…Growth

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ennui, 1 Introduction: the naming of partsyunus.hacettepe.edu.tr/~jason.ward/ied485britnovel4/TWoodsBegPoMoCh1.pdfself-respecting English departments ignore it; in a recent magazine

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Italian Innovaon Day Results of today, ideas for … Innovaon Day Results of today ... 2015: 6 RIS digital innovation centres & Silicon Valley hub ... - FBK and Trento University accepted

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Structural characterization and viscoelastic constitutive ...meyersgroup.ucsd.edu/papers/journals/Meyers 436.pdfself-healing, highly extensible skin for electronics applications by

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ATU$Seminar$2014:$Innovaon$ · 2017-08-10 · SDU$Campus$Sønderborg$! Approx.$1.000$Students$! Engineering,$Social$Science$und$Humani4es$! StateLofLtheLartequipment! Modern$Campus$$

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Lean: Driving Engagement, Driving Improvement, Driving Success Washington - 10-17... · Driving Engagement, Driving Improvement, Driving Success Tuesday, October 17, 2017 Gary Vansuch

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Building(the(NextU.S.(Innovaon Pla7orm(for(Research(and ... · Building(the(NextU.S.(Innovaon Pla7orm(for(Research(and(EconomicDevelopment(CASC$Annual$Mee+ng,$$Washington,$DC$ February$29,$2012$

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Open Innovaon Making it work for you

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European)U+li+es)Driving)Open) Innovaon)in)the)Energy ...sites.ieee.org/isgt2014/files/2014/03/Day2_Panel3A_Fiona-Williams.pdf · Solar GW GW Wind Bio Mass GW TSO Virtual Power Plant

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