LOW CLOUDS AND IFR FORECASTING
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LOW CLOUDS LOW CLOUDS AND AND IFR FORECASTING IFR FORECASTING NATIONAL WEATHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SERVICE KEN WIDELSKI KEN WIDELSKI October 11, 2005 October 11, 2005
description
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR FORECASTING. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEN WIDELSKI October 11, 2005. BACKGROUND. GLEN COVE, NEW YORK 12/99-09/01: NWS UPTON, NY 11/01-02/02: METRO WEATHER SERVICE 03/02-04/04: NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO 04/04-PRESENT: NWS LUBBOCK. AGENDA. BASIC PROCESSES - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of LOW CLOUDS AND IFR FORECASTING
LOW CLOUDS LOW CLOUDS ANDAND
IFR FORECASTINGIFR FORECASTING
NATIONAL WEATHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICESERVICE
KEN WIDELSKIKEN WIDELSKI
October 11, 2005October 11, 2005
BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND
GLEN COVE, NEW YORKGLEN COVE, NEW YORK 12/99-09/01: NWS UPTON, NY12/99-09/01: NWS UPTON, NY
11/01-02/02: METRO WEATHER SERVICE11/01-02/02: METRO WEATHER SERVICE
03/02-04/04: NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO03/02-04/04: NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO
04/04-PRESENT: NWS LUBBOCK04/04-PRESENT: NWS LUBBOCK
AGENDAAGENDA
BASIC PROCESSESBASIC PROCESSES FORECAST FACTORSFORECAST FACTORS FLIGHT CATEGORIES – REVIEWFLIGHT CATEGORIES – REVIEW NWS AVIATION SOFTWARE/ PRODUCTSNWS AVIATION SOFTWARE/ PRODUCTS TOOLS OF THE TRADETOOLS OF THE TRADE YOU MAKE THE CALL- INTERACTIVEYOU MAKE THE CALL- INTERACTIVE CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
BASIC PROCESSESBASIC PROCESSES
A) A) LOW CLOUDSLOW CLOUDS - INGREDIENTS - INGREDIENTS
I: MOISTURE TRANSPORT (WAA)I: MOISTURE TRANSPORT (WAA)
2: LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) 2: LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ)
3: SURFACE WIND FLOW 3: SURFACE WIND FLOW
4: UPSLOPE FLOW 4: UPSLOPE FLOW
BASIC PROCESSESBASIC PROCESSES B) B) FOGFOG – –TYPES AND INGREDIENTSTYPES AND INGREDIENTS
1: RADIATION 1: RADIATION -WIND SPEED 5 KTS OR LESS-WIND SPEED 5 KTS OR LESS -CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY-CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY -SOIL MOISTURE-SOIL MOISTURE 2: ADVECTION2: ADVECTION -MOISTURE TRANSPORT-MOISTURE TRANSPORT
3: UPSLOPE3: UPSLOPE
NAME THAT FOG!NAME THAT FOG!
HOW ABOUT THIS ONE?HOW ABOUT THIS ONE?
AND FINALLY…AND FINALLY…
FORECAST FACTORSFORECAST FACTORS
CAPROCKCAPROCK
FACTORS CON’TFACTORS CON’T A DISTANT MOISTURE SOURCEA DISTANT MOISTURE SOURCE
FACTORS CONT’DFACTORS CONT’D
SLOPING TERRAIN TO THE WESTSLOPING TERRAIN TO THE WEST
FAA FLIGHT CATEGORIESFAA FLIGHT CATEGORIES VFRVFR - - Visual Flight Rules; Visibility > 5 SMVisual Flight Rules; Visibility > 5 SM
Ceiling > 3000 feet Ceiling > 3000 feet
MVFRMVFR - Marginal Visual Flight Rules; Visibility 3 to - Marginal Visual Flight Rules; Visibility 3 to 5 SM; Ceiling 1000 to 3000 feet 5 SM; Ceiling 1000 to 3000 feet
IFRIFR - Instrument Flight Rules; Visibility 1 to <3 - Instrument Flight Rules; Visibility 1 to <3 statute miles; Ceiling 500 to 900 feet statute miles; Ceiling 500 to 900 feet
LIFRLIFR - Low Instrument Flight Rules; Visibility <1 - Low Instrument Flight Rules; Visibility <1 statute mile; Ceiling < 500 feetstatute mile; Ceiling < 500 feet
SOFTWARE AND PRODUCTSSOFTWARE AND PRODUCTS TAFTAF
--TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTTERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST
--5 NM HOLE AROUND CENTER OF5 NM HOLE AROUND CENTER OF RUNWAY COMPLEXRUNWAY COMPLEX
--FOUR ROUTINE ISSUANCES PER DAYFOUR ROUTINE ISSUANCES PER DAY 12Z, 18Z, 00Z AND 06Z12Z, 18Z, 00Z AND 06Z
--SITES: KLBB AND KCDSSITES: KLBB AND KCDS
LOW CLOUD TAFLOW CLOUD TAF
KLBBKLBB 101730Z 101818 25008KT P6SM SCT020 SCT200 101730Z 101818 25008KT P6SM SCT020 SCT200
TEMPO 2201 5SM –TSRA BKN035CBTEMPO 2201 5SM –TSRA BKN035CB
FM0100 36012KT P6SM –SHRA SCT020 OVC050FM0100 36012KT P6SM –SHRA SCT020 OVC050
FM0600 08010KT 4SM BR BKN010 FM0600 08010KT 4SM BR BKN010
FM1000 15012KT 2SM BR BKN006 OVC010FM1000 15012KT 2SM BR BKN006 OVC010
FM1400 20015KT P6SM SCT020 SCT120FM1400 20015KT P6SM SCT020 SCT120
NWS TAF SOFTWARENWS TAF SOFTWARE
AVNFPSAVNFPS
--PART OF AWIPSPART OF AWIPS
TWEBTWEB
--TRANSCRIBED WEATHER BROADCASTTRANSCRIBED WEATHER BROADCAST
--TWEB ROUTETWEB ROUTE: : 50 NM WIDE CORRIDOR50 NM WIDE CORRIDOR ALONG A LINE CONNECTING THE ALONG A LINE CONNECTING THE ANCHOR POINTS OF THE ROUTEANCHOR POINTS OF THE ROUTE..
--FOUR ISSUANCES PER DAYFOUR ISSUANCES PER DAY
--KAMA-KLBB-KMAFKAMA-KLBB-KMAF
LOW CLOUD TWEBLOW CLOUD TWEB
185 TWEB 100314 KAMA-KLBB-KMAF185 TWEB 100314 KAMA-KLBB-KMAF. . ALL HGTS AGL EXC TOPS. KAMA-KPVW ALL HGTS AGL EXC TOPS. KAMA-KPVW P6SM –RA SCT020 OVC040 AREAS 4SM P6SM –RA SCT020 OVC040 AREAS 4SM TSRA BKN020CB…07Z P6SM SCT010 TSRA BKN020CB…07Z P6SM SCT010 OVC030 AREAS 2SM BR SHRA OVC010. OVC030 AREAS 2SM BR SHRA OVC010. KPVW-KMAF P6SM SCT020 BKN050 SCT KPVW-KMAF P6SM SCT020 BKN050 SCT 5SM –RA BR OVC015.5SM –RA BR OVC015.
TWEB EDITORTWEB EDITOR
TOOLS OF THE TRADETOOLS OF THE TRADE
A) UPPER AIR OR MODEL SOUNDINGSA) UPPER AIR OR MODEL SOUNDINGS
B) VAD WIND PROFILERB) VAD WIND PROFILER
C) * SATELLITE DATA *C) * SATELLITE DATA *
Equipment Used By The NWS To Equipment Used By The NWS To Monitor The WeatherMonitor The Weather
Imagery From Space Imagery From Space SatellitesSatellites
D) LOCAL OBSERVATIONSD) LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
E) MODEL STATISTICSE) MODEL STATISTICS
FOUS14 KWBC 060357 (Forecast office and name, date/time)FOUS14 KWBC 060357 (Forecast office and name, date/time)DCA ESC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 3/06/02 0000 UTCDCA ESC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 3/06/02 0000 UTCDAY /MAR 6 /MAR 7 /MAR 8DAY /MAR 6 /MAR 7 /MAR 8HOUR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12HOUR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12MX/MN 59 39 54 24MX/MN 59 39 54 24TEMP 37 34 33 38 45 53 52 49 46 43 40 42 47 51 42 39 35 30 24TEMP 37 34 33 38 45 53 52 49 46 43 40 42 47 51 42 39 35 30 24DEW 27 28 28 30 32 36 40 38 41 41 37 33 28 27 25 21 20 19 19DEW 27 28 28 30 32 36 40 38 41 41 37 33 28 27 25 21 20 19 19CLDS OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK SC SC SC CL CL CLCLDS OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK SC SC SC CL CL CLWDIR 26 18 08 12 14 14 15 18 24 27 28 29 29 29 29 33 01 02 00WDIR 26 18 08 12 14 14 15 18 24 27 28 29 29 29 29 33 01 02 00WSPD 01 04 06 10 11 12 16 18 13 15 12 20 24 22 14 12 14 08 00WSPD 01 04 06 10 11 12 16 18 13 15 12 20 24 22 14 12 14 08 00CIG 4 5 4 4 5 6 7 6 3 2 1 5 6CIG 4 5 4 4 5 6 7 6 3 2 1 5 6VIS 3 4 3 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 3 4VIS 3 4 3 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 3 4OBVIS H H H N N N N F F F F H NOBVIS H H H N N N N F F F F H N
YOU MAKE THE CALLYOU MAKE THE CALL
HEAD TO WORKHEAD TO WORK
SAY HELLO TO THE MICSAY HELLO TO THE MIC
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ROLL INLOW CLOUDS AND FOG ROLL IN
THE NEW DATA SHOWS…THE NEW DATA SHOWS…
1 MILE VISIBILITY IN FOG1 MILE VISIBILITY IN FOG
600 FOOT BROKEN CEILING600 FOOT BROKEN CEILING
WHAT FLIGHT CATEGORY?WHAT FLIGHT CATEGORY?
A) MVFRA) MVFR B) IFRB) IFR C) LIFRC) LIFR D) VFRD) VFR E) LIFR VISIBILITY E) LIFR VISIBILITY
IFR CEILINGIFR CEILING
ANSWERANSWER
IFR !!IFR !!
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF BASIC GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF BASIC PROCESSES CAN MAKE FOR BETTER PROCESSES CAN MAKE FOR BETTER PLANNING AND PREPARATION.PLANNING AND PREPARATION.
MUCH DATA AVAILABLE VIA WEBMUCH DATA AVAILABLE VIA WEB
NWS SINCE 1870 – DEDICATED TO NWS SINCE 1870 – DEDICATED TO PROVIDING QUALITY PRODUCTS TO PROVIDING QUALITY PRODUCTS TO THE SOUTH PLAINSTHE SOUTH PLAINS
