Louisiana coastal master plan

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High Performance Computing for the 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan

Z. Cobell

9 September 20152

Acknowledgements

*This project was funded by The Water Institute of the Gulf under project award number

CPRA-2012-TO3-EM. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author

and do not necessarily represent the views of The Water Institute of the Gulf

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Acknowledgements

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Motivation • Coastal Louisiana is in a land loss crisis.

• 4800 sq km lost since 1930*

• 4500 sq km potential loss by 2060*

• More loss, more damage

• $23 billion additional damage from storm surge due to

loss by 2060*

*Peyronnin et al, 2013, Louisiana’s 2012 Coastal Master Plan: Overview of a Science-

Based and Publicly Informed Decision-Making Process

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Agenda • Numerical Models Employed

• 2007 LACPR

• 2012 Master Plan

• 2017 Master Plan

• Conclusions

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Numerical Models

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Numerical Models

• ADCIRC

• Circulation model

• Solves shallow water equations

• Unstructured finite element mesh

• Serial or MPI

• SWAN

• Spectral wave model

• Solves action density equation for non-stationary waves

• Unstructured, curvilinear, or structured mesh

• Serial, OpenMP, or MPI

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METIS Decomposition

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Model Communication

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Coupled Simulation Schematic

Fx Fyζ u v

wx wy

ADCIRC

UnSWAN

0 600 1200

TIME

Note: This is a single model run

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Model Efficiency

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Model Efficiency

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Model Efficiency

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Model Efficiency

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Model Domain

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Model Domain

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Model Domain

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Model Validation

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Model Validation

20 9 September 2015

LACPR 2007

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2007 LACPR • 2007 FEMA study in Louisiana created suite of 446 synthetic

hurricanes

• These 446 storms used to define the statistical returns for

water surface elevation

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2007 LACPR • One of the first studies of its kind

• Developed methods still used today

• Computers simply unable to analyze large numbers of

projects

• Large storm set

• Computational time required per simulation

• Conducted at USACE supercomputing facilities

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2012 Master Plan Framework

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• Framework to analyze proposed restoration projects

• How do these projects effect the landscape?

• How do these projects effect each other?

• How do these projects reduce damage during storms?

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• Modeling system developed to aid in project selection

process

• Includes models for:

• Vegetation

• Water Quality

• Ecology/Hydrology

• Wetland Morphology

• Barrier Island Morphology

• Fish/Wildlife

• Storm Surge/Waves

• Damage/Risk Analysis

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Model Interaction

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Model Interaction

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2012 Master Plan

• Premise of analyzing large number of projects and large

number of environmental scenarios

• Storm suite reduced while maintaining acceptable levels of

accuracy

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2012 Master Plan

• 2012

• Project level screening analysis – 40 storm suite

• 34 hurricane protection projects analyzed

• Projects grouped into 7 non-interacting groups to

isolate impacts

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Project Groups

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Simulation Results

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2012 Master Plan

• 2012



• Projects grouped into non-interacting groups to isolate

impacts

• 7 groupings and base condition

• Portfolio analysis – 40 storm suite

• Future conditions with different suites of projects

implemented

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Model Interaction

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2012 Master Plan

• 2012



• Projects grouped into non-interacting groups to isolate

impacts

• 7 groupings and base condition

• Portfolio analysis – 40 storm suite

• Future conditions with different suites of projects

implemented

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Simulation Results

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2012 Master Plan

• 2012

• Total simulations conducted:

• Project Level

40 storms

8 groupings (7+1 base condition)

3 scenarios

840 simulations

• Alternative Level

40 storms

3 groupings

3 scenarios

2* time levels (0*, 25, 50 years)

800 simulations

1640 simulations

~6MM CPU Hours

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2017 Master Plan

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2017 Simulation Suite

• 2017 – In progress

• Number of storms increased

• 60 storm project screening level suite

– 3 time levels

– 3 scenarios

• 154 storm alternatives analysis suite

– 3 time levels

– 3 scenarios

• Total planned simulations: 7712

• Total planned CPU hours: ~10MM

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Computational Resources

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Computational Resources

• 2007 LACPR Resource – USACE “Sapphire”

• Cray XT3

• Dual AMD Opteron Processors @ 2.6GHz

• 8192 total cores

• Shared government resource

• 2012 Master Plan Resource – “Athos”

• Online 2010

• Dual 6 core Nehalem Processors @ 2.67GHz

• Qlogic QDR Infiniband, 2:1 Oversubscription

• 996 total cores

• Dedicated resource

• 2017 Master Plan Resource – “Aegaeon”

• Online 2015

• Dual 12 core Sandy Bridge Processors @ 2.5GHz

• Mellanox FDR Infiniband, 2:1 Oversubscription

• 1488 total cores

• Dedicated resource

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Computational Resources • Aegaeon (2015) provides nearly a 2X speedup versus the

machine developed in 2010

5000

50000

500000

10 100 1000 10000

Scaling Analaysis

Aegaeon (sec) Athos (sec)

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Conclusions

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Conclusions • 2007 – 446 simulations

• 2012 – 1640 simulations (x3.6) – 4MM CPU

• 2017 – 7712 simulations (x4.7) – 8MM CPU

• The number of simulations that can be reasonably completed

has grown drastically

• CPUs, Interconnects, Storage, Availability

• The “value” of a CPU hour has increased

• These simulations heavily influence policy decisions

• The computational power we can harness, the more detail we

can provide to policy makers

9 September 201544

Conclusions • Computer speed has increased to allow high performance

models to derive forecasts

Imagine the result

Louisiana coastal master plan

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