Long-Term Financial Planning and Corporate Growth

© 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Financial Planning and

Corporate Growth

Chapter

Four

4.2

Copyright © 2005 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Key Concepts and Skills

• Understand the financial planning process and how decisions are interrelated

• Be able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approach

• Understand the four major decision areas involved in long-term financial planning

• Understand how capital structure policy and dividend policy affect a firm’s ability to grow

4.3


Chapter Outline

• What is Financial Planning?

• Financial Planning Models: A First Look

• The Percentage of Sales Approach

• External Financing and Growth

• Some Caveats On Financial Planning Models

4.4


Basic Elements of Financial Planning

• Investment in new assets – determined by capital budgeting decisions

• Degree of financial leverage – determined by capital structure decisions

• Cash paid to shareholders – dividend policy decisions

• Liquidity requirements – determined by net working capital decisions

4.5


Financial Planning Process 4.1

• Planning Horizon - divide decisions into short-run decisions (usually next 12 months) and long-run decisions (usually 2 – 5 years)

• Aggregation - combine capital budgeting decisions into one big project

• Assumptions and Scenarios– Make realistic assumptions about important variables

– Run several scenarios where you vary the assumptions by reasonable amounts

– Determine at least a worst case, normal case and best case scenario

4.6


Role of Financial Planning

• Examining interactions – helps management see the interactions between decisions

• Exploring options – gives management a systematic framework for exploring its opportunities

• Avoiding surprises – helps management identify possible outcomes and plan accordingly

• Ensuring Feasibility and Internal Consistency – helps management determine if goals can be accomplished and if the various stated (and unstated) goals of the firm are consistent with one another

4.7


Financial Planning Model Ingredients 4.2

• Sales Forecast – many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales (often estimated using a growth rate in sales)

• Pro Forma Statements – setting up the financial plan in the form of projected financial statements allows for consistency and ease of interpretation

• Asset Requirements – how much additional fixed assets will be required to meet sales projections

• Financial Requirements – how much financing will we need to pay for the required assets

• Plug Variable – management decision about what type of financing will be used (makes the balance sheet balance)

• Economic Assumptions – explicit assumptions about the coming economic environment

4.8


Example 1 – Historical Financial Statements

Gourmet Coffee Inc.

Balance Sheet

December 31, 2001

Assets 1000 Debt 400

Equity 600

Total 1000 Total 1000

Gourmet Coffee Inc.

Income Statement

For Year Ended

December 31, 2001

Revenues 2000

Costs 1600

Net Income 400

4.9


Example 1continued - Pro Forma Income Statement

• Initial Assumptions– Revenues will grow at

15% (2000*1.15)

– All items are tied directly to sales and the current relationships are optimal

– Consequently, all other items will also grow at 15%

Gourmet Coffee Inc.

Pro Forma Income Statement

For Year Ended 2002

Revenues 2,300

Costs 1,840

Net Income 460

4.10


Example 1 continued - Pro Forma Balance Sheet

• Case I– Dividends are the plug

variable, so debt and equity increase at 15%

– Dividends = 460 NI – 90 increase in equity = 370

• Case II– Debt is the plug variable

and no dividends are paid

– Debt = 1,150 – (600+460) = 90

– Repay 400 – 90 = 310 in debt

Gourmet Coffee Inc.

Pro Forma Balance Sheet

Case 1

Assets 1,150 Debt 460

Equity 690

Total 1,150 Total 1,150

Gourmet Coffee Inc.Pro Forma Balance Sheet

Case 1

Assets 1,150 Debt 90

Equity 1,060

Total 1,150 Total 1,150

4.11


Percent of Sales Approach 4.3

• Some items tend to vary directly with sales, while others do not

• Income Statement– Costs may vary directly with sales– If this is the case, then the profit margin is constant– Dividends are a management decision and generally do not vary

directly with sales – this affects the retained earnings that go on the balance sheet

• Balance Sheet– Initially assume that all assets, including fixed, vary directly with sales– Accounts payable will also normally vary directly with sales– Notes payable, long-term debt and equity generally do not vary with

sales because they depend on management decisions about capital structure

– The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will come from the dividend decision

4.12


Example 2 – Percentage of Sales Method

Tasha’s Toy Emporium

Income Statement, 2001

% of Sales

Sales 5,000

Costs 3,000 60%

EBT 2,000 40%

Taxes (40%) 800 16%

Net Income 1,200 24%

Dividends 600

Add. To RE 600

Tasha’s Toy Emporium

Pro Forma Income Statement, 2002

Sales 5,500

Costs 3,300

EBT 2,200

Taxes 880

Net Income 1,320

Dividends 660

Add. To RE 660

Assume Sales grow at 10%Dividend Payout Rate = 600/1,200=50% (assm. cons)

4.13


Example 2 – Percentage of Sales Method

• Retention (plowback) ratio: addition to retained earnings/net income=

=600/1,200=50%=1-dividend payout ratio (assume constant)

• Projected addition to retained earnings=1,320x50%=660

• Projected dividends paid to shareholders=1,320x50%=660

• Now, some B/S’s items depend on sales (expressed in % of original sales=$5,000), while some not (denoted n/a)

4.14


Example 2 – Percentage of Sales Method continued

Tasha’s Toy Emporium – Balance SheetCurrent % of

SalesPro

FormaCurrent % of

SalesPro

Forma

ASSETS LIABILITIES & OWNERS’ EQUITY

Current Assets Current Liabilities

Cash $500 10% $550 A/P $900 18% $990

A/R 2,000 40 2,200 N/P 2,500 n/a 2,500

Inventory 3,000 60 3,300 Total 3,400 n/a 3,490

Total 5,500 110 6,050 LT Debt 2,000 n/a 2,000

Fixed Assets Owners’ Equity

Net PP&E 4,000 80 4,400 C Shares 2,000 n/a 2,000

Total Assets 9,500 190 10,450 RE* 2,100 n/a 2,760

Total 4,100 n/a 4,760

Total L & OE 9,500 10,250

4.15


Example 3 – External Financing Needed

• *will change with sales, but not as a simple percentage

• Retained earnings=2,100+660 (found before from the –assumed - constant retention ratio)=2,760

• The firm needs to come up with an additional $200 in debt or equity to make the balance sheet balance– TA – TL&OE = 10,450 – 10,250 = 200

• Choose plug variable– Borrow more short-term (Notes Payable)– Borrow more long-term (LT Debt)– Sell more common shares (C Shares)– Decrease dividend payout, which increases Additions To

RE

4.16


Example 3 – External Financing Needed

• Suppose they decide to borrow:

• Current assets increased by 550, current liabilities by 90 => can borrow up to 550-90=460 in short-term notes (when NWC is unchanged).

• One possible solution: borrow 200 in short term notes and balance the balance sheet!

4.17


Example 4 – Operating at Less than Full Capacity

• Suppose that the company is currently operating at 80% capacity (not 100%, as assumed previously).– Full Capacity sales = 5000 / .8 = 6,250

– Estimated sales = $5,500, so would still only be operating at 88%

– Therefore, no additional fixed assets would be required.

– Pro forma Total Assets = 6,050 + 4,000 = 10,050

– Total Liabilities and Owners’ Equity = 10,250

• Choose plug variable– Repay some short-term debt (decrease Notes Payable)

– Repay some long-term debt (decrease LT Debt)

– Buy back shares (decrease C Shares)

– Pay more in dividends (reduce Additions To RE)

– Increase cash account

4.18


Work the Web Example

• Looking for estimates of company growth rates?

• What do the analysts have to say?

• Check out Yahoo Finance – click the web surfer, enter a company ticker and follow the “Research” link

4.19


Growth and External Financing 4.4

• At low growth levels, internal financing (retained earnings) may exceed the required investment in assets

• As the growth rate increases, the internal financing will not be enough and the firm will have to go to the capital markets for money

• Examining the relationship between growth and external financing required is a useful tool in long-range planning

4.20


The Internal Growth Rate

• The internal growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow assets using retained earnings as the only source of financing.

%71.6

0671.6037.1041.1

6037.1041.ROA - 1

RROA RateGrowth Internal

R

4.21


The Sustainable Growth Rate

• The sustainable growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow by using internally generated funds and issuing debt to maintain a constant debt ratio.

%92.17

1792.6037.2517.1

6037.2517.ROE-1

RROE RateGrowth eSustainabl

R

4.22


Determinants of Growth

• Profit margin (p)– operating efficiency

• Total asset turnover (S/A) – asset use efficiency

• Financial policy – choice of optimal debt/equity (D/E) ratio

• Dividend policy (R-retention ratio) – choice of how much to pay to shareholders versus reinvesting in the firm

( )(1 )*

1 ( )(1 )

*

*

( ) *

( ) *

S Dp RA Eg S Dp RA E

p g

R g

Dg

ES

gA

4.23


Some Caveats 4.5

• It is important to remember that we are working with accounting numbers and ask ourselves some important questions as we go through the planning process

• How does our plan affect the timing and risk of our cash flows?

• Does the plan point out inconsistencies in our goals?

• If we follow this plan, will we maximize owners’ wealth?

• Percentage of sales or regression analysis?

4.24


Quick Quiz

• What is the purpose of long-range planning?

• What are the major decision areas involved in developing a plan?

• What is the percentage of sales approach?

• How do you adjust the model when operating at less than full capacity?

• What is the internal growth rate?

• What is the sustainable growth rate?

• What are the major determinants of growth?

4.25


Summary 4.6

• You should understand:– The financial planning process and how key

financial decisions are interrelated– How to use the percentage-of-sales method to

make a financial plan– How to adjust the model if the company is

operating under-capacity– How to calculate both the internal growth rate and

the sustainable growth rate– The factors that determine growth

Long-Term Financial Planning and Corporate Growth

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