Lock In and Vaporware: What’s the Connection?
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Transcript of Lock In and Vaporware: What’s the Connection?
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Lock In and Vaporware: Lock In and Vaporware: What’s the Connection?What’s the Connection?
Erica GierkeErica Gierke
Advisors: Chris Fernandes Advisors: Chris Fernandes and Stephen Schmidt (Eco)and Stephen Schmidt (Eco)
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AgendaAgenda Economic problems of lock in and Economic problems of lock in and
vaporwarevaporware
Experimental StructureExperimental Structure
ResultsResults
ConclusionConclusion
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What is Lock In?What is Lock In?
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Why Does It Matter?Why Does It Matter? Adopting standards makes Adopting standards makes
improvement hardimprovement hard
Standards are good, static standards Standards are good, static standards are badare bad
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Contributing FactorsContributing Factors•CompatibilityCompatibility
•Network ExternalitiesNetwork Externalities
•Example:Example:•How useful is an instant How useful is an instant messenger that no one else messenger that no one else uses?uses?
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PreannouncementsPreannouncements• Many technology products are Many technology products are
preannouncedpreannounced
• Give insight into future products Give insight into future products availableavailable
• Sometimes truthful, sometimes notSometimes truthful, sometimes not
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VaporwareVaporware• A deliberate false product A deliberate false product
announcementannouncement
• Can influence other producers and Can influence other producers and consumersconsumers
• Problem- false announcements can Problem- false announcements can delay technology even moredelay technology even more
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How does vaporware hurt?How does vaporware hurt?
Hypothesis:Hypothesis:
Vaporware Vaporware announcements prolong announcements prolong lock inlock in
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The Experimental ProgramThe Experimental ProgramProducers Consumers
Database Backend
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The ExperimentThe Experiment
A1A1
A2A2 B2B2
$$$
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The Producer’s InterfaceThe Producer’s Interface
ProducerStart
Production Page
Update Database/ Production Feedback
Vaporware Announcement
SubmitAnnouncement/ Announcement
Feedback
ProducerWait
ProducerFeedback
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The Consumer’s InterfaceThe Consumer’s Interface
ConsumerStart
ConsumerWait
ConsumerUpdate/
Purchase Feedback
ConsumerFeedback
ConsumerPurchase
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DataData Collected data over 4 sessionsCollected data over 4 sessions
Two 4 round and two 8 round Two 4 round and two 8 round sessionssessions
Most interesting data from 8 round Most interesting data from 8 round sessionssessions
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DataDataBest Progress
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Technology Type
Tech
nolo
gy L
evel
Best Progress
Inefficient Progression
A B C D E F G H I
Best Progress For Producers
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Session 3- ProducersSession 3- ProducersSession 3
1
234
56789
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Technology Type
Tech
nolo
gy L
evel
Best Progress1P2P3P4P
A B C D E F G H I
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Session 4- ProducersSession 4- ProducersSession 4
123456789
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Technology Type
Tech
nolo
gy L
evel Best Progress
1P2P3P4P
A B C D E F G H I
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Vaporware AnnouncementsVaporware Announcements Session three, one announcementSession three, one announcement
Session four, one producer Session four, one producer announced most roundsannounced most rounds
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Session 3- AnnouncementsSession 3- AnnouncementsSession 3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Technology Type
Tech
nolo
gy L
evel
Best Progress1P2P3P4P
A B C D E F G H I
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Session 4- AnnouncementsSession 4- AnnouncementsSession 4
123456789
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Technology Type
Tech
nolo
gy L
evel Best Progress
1P2P3P4P
A B C D E F G H I
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ConclusionConclusion Vaporware impedes progressVaporware impedes progress
Sessions with less announcements Sessions with less announcements progressed furtherprogressed further
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Questions?Questions?