LNG A BRIDGE TO OUR ENERGY FUTURE. 2 This presentation contains certain statements that are, or may...
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Transcript of LNG A BRIDGE TO OUR ENERGY FUTURE. 2 This presentation contains certain statements that are, or may...
LNG A BRIDGE TO OUR ENERGY FUTURE
2
This presentation contains certain statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Exchange Act. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included herein are “forward-looking statements.” Included among “forward-looking statements” are, among other things:
statements that we expect to commence or complete construction of each or any of our proposed liquefied natural gas, or LNG, receiving terminals by certain dates, or at all;
statements that we expect to receive authorization from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, to construct and operate proposed LNG receiving terminals by a certain date, or at all;
statements regarding future levels of domestic natural gas production and consumption, or the future level of LNG imports into North America, or regarding projected future capacity of liquefaction or regasification facilities worldwide regardless of the source of such information;
statements regarding any financing transactions or arrangements, whether on the part of Cheniere or at the project level;
statements relating to the construction of our proposed LNG receiving terminals, including statements concerning estimated costs, and the engagement of any EPC contractor;
statements regarding any Terminal Use Agreement, or TUA, or other commercial arrangements presently contracted, optioned, marketed or potential arrangements to be performed substantially in the future, including any cash distributions and revenues anticipated to be received; statements regarding the commercial terms and potential revenues from activities described in this presentation;
statements regarding the commercial terms or potential revenue from any arrangements which may arise from the marketing of uncommitted capacity from any of the terminals, including the Creole Trail and Corpus Christi terminals which do not currently have contractual commitments;
statements regarding the commercial terms or potential revenue from any arrangement relating to the proposed contracting for excess or expansion capacity for the Sabine Pass LNG Terminal or the Indexed Purchase Agreement (“IPA”) Examples described in this presentation;
statements that our proposed LNG receiving terminals, when completed, will have certain characteristics, including amounts of regasification and storage capacities, a number of storage tanks and docks and pipeline interconnections;
statements regarding Cheniere and Cheniere Marketing forecasts, and any potential revenues and capital expenditures which may be derived from any of Cheniere business groups;
statements regarding Cheniere Pipeline Company, and the capital expenditures and potential revenues related to this business group; statements regarding our proposed LNG receiving terminals’ access to existing pipelines, and their ability to obtain transportation capacity on existing pipelines;
statements regarding possible expansions of the currently projected size of any of our proposed LNG receiving terminals;
statements regarding the payment by Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. of cash distributions;
statements regarding our business strategy, our business plan or any other plans, forecasts, examples, models, forecasts or objectives; any or all of which are subject to change;
statements regarding estimated corporate overhead expenses; and
any other statements that relate to non-historical information.
These forward-looking statements are often identified by the use of terms and phrases such as “achieve,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “example,” “expect,” “forecast,” “opportunities,” “plan,” “potential,” “project,” “propose,” “subject to,” and similar terms and phrases. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties, and these expectations may prove to be incorrect. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc. Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006, which are incorporated by reference into this presentation. All forward-looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these ”Risk Factors”. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.
Safe Harbor Act
3
CERA/IHS: North American Production Not Sustainable @ $10/Mcf
Lower 48 & Canada Productive Capacity
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
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$ 4.00 $ 6.00 $ 8.00 $ 10.00
0
Gas price $/MMBtu
Rising costs and shift to unconventional reservoirs sets a floor for natural gas prices
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
1
4.965.40
5.95 6.026.31
7.24 7.24 7.39 7.507.86
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Uin
ta B
asin
Pic
ean
ceB
asin
$7.00/MMBtu
Note: Prices for a 10% rate of return
4
Rockies
Arctic Gas
Deep Deep GulfGulfDeep Deep GulfGulf
LNGLNGLNGLNGLNGLNGLNGLNG
New Supply Must Come from New Areas…
“Our limited capacity to import liquefied natural gas effectively restrictsour access to the world’s abundant supplies of natural gas” Alan Greenspan, Former Federal Reserve Chairman, May 21, 2003
“Our limited capacity to import liquefied natural gas effectively restrictsour access to the world’s abundant supplies of natural gas” Alan Greenspan, Former Federal Reserve Chairman, May 21, 2003
“Building LNG terminals is one thing that we can do and we should continue to do to create a more global market for natural gas,” Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman, February 15, 2006
“Building LNG terminals is one thing that we can do and we should continue to do to create a more global market for natural gas,” Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman, February 15, 2006
“We've got to make sure that we have enough natural gas to meet our home heating and industrial needs. And one of the best ways to secure supply is to expand our ability to receive liquefied natural gas.” President Bush, February 20, 2006
“We've got to make sure that we have enough natural gas to meet our home heating and industrial needs. And one of the best ways to secure supply is to expand our ability to receive liquefied natural gas.” President Bush, February 20, 2006
5
LNG is natural gas that has been super-cooled to -260°F and changed from gas to liquid
Liquefaction reduces volume by 600-to-1 Stored cold in insulated containers at near atmospheric
pressure Safe to store and transport LNG is colorless, odorless,
non-corrosive, and non-toxic
Becomes lighter than air when vaporized
What Is Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)?
6
Production and Imports vs. Consumption
Replace production decline + consumption growth ~ 15 Bcf/dForecast at average $6.00 HH per MMBtu
Source: Lower- 48: IHS 2006; Canadian Imports & Consumption: EIA, AEO 2006
12 Bcf/d
3 Bcf/d
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Dry Production Pipe Imports LNG Imports Consumption
Lower- 48 Production
Canadian Imports LNG
7
New Liquefaction Competes for Market Share
Atlantic Basin12 Bcf/d
Atlantic Basin12 Bcf/d
ME Gulf 11 Bcf/dME Gulf 11 Bcf/d
Asia Pacific13 Bcf/d
Asia Pacific13 Bcf/d
2005 Europe4.7 Bcf/d
2005 Europe4.7 Bcf/d
2005 12.3 Bcf/d
2005 12.3 Bcf/d
2005 NA1.8 Bcf/d2005 NA1.8 Bcf/d
2010 Liquefaction Capacity
2005 Consumption
5
15
25
35
45
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
36
23 24 2630
35
Bcf/d Liquefaction Capacity
Existing Liquefaction
Under Construction
Proposed Liquefaction
Source: CERA, Cheniere Research
8
Major Players – Global LNG Supply
Qatar
Nigeria
Russia
Australia
Indonesia
Algeria
Trinidad
Malaysia
Egypt
Other
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Iran
Tier 1Tier 1
Tier 2Tier 2
Tier 3Tier 3
Tier 3 = Oman, Brunei, Yemen, Norway, Libya, Eq.Guinea, Abu Dhabi, Angola, Peru, USA
?
Bcf/dSource: Cheniere Research
9
Liquefaction Growth
Global liquefaction capacity in 2005 was 23 Bcf/d
Liquefaction in 2010 is estimated to be 36 Bcf/d
Growth in liquefaction is 13 Bcf/d
Where will it go?
10
Henry Hub Index minus National Balancing Point Index
($6.00)
($5.00)
($4.00)
($3.00)
($2.00)
($1.00)
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
Jan-
01M
ar-0
1M
ay-0
1Ju
l-01
Sep
-01
Nov
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Jan-
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ar-0
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Hen
ry H
ub
Pre
miu
m (
Dis
cou
nt)
to
NB
P $
/Mm
btu
<======== Futures ========>
US Premium to UK
US Discount to UK
Futures as of 04/05/07Source: Deloitte, NYMEX, ICE, EIA
NYMEX vs. NBP – May 30, 2007
Historical DataFutures as of 05/30/07
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LNG Trade Today
Source: CERA, 2006
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LNG Trade 2010
Source: CERA, 2006
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EverettEverett
Cove Point Cove Point
Elba IslandElba Island
Lake Charles Lake Charles
Sabine Pass Sabine Pass
Freeport Freeport
Golden PassGolden Pass
CameronCameron
Costa AzúlCosta Azúl
CanaportCanaport
Existing
Under Construction
AltamiraAltamira
Source: Websites of Terminal Owners, Wood Mackenzie Limited, Poten & Partners
TerminalCapacity Holder
BaseloadSendout (MMcf/d)
Canaport 1,000Irving, Repsol
Everett - Suez 700
Cove Point 1,800BP, Statoil, Shell
Elba Island 800BG, Marathon, Shell
Lake Charles - BG 1,800
Freeport 1,500ConocoPhillips, Dow
Sabine Pass 4,000Total, Chevron, Cheniere
Cameron 1,500Sempra, ENI
Golden Pass 2,000EOM, ConocoPhillips, QP
Altamira 700Shell, Total
Costa Azul 1,000Shell, Sempra
Total 16,800
North America Onshore Regasification Capacity By 2010
15.8 Bcf/d North American Atlantic Basin capacity @ 65% utilization = 10.3 Bcf/d
14
LNG IMPORTS BENEFIT THE STATES
Increased supply results in downward pressure on price. Gas is the near term fuel for electric generation as coal
plants are canceled across the nation and nuclear plants are slow to develop.
Renewable energy is years away from making a substantial impact in the total amount of power.
Gas is the cleanest fossil fuel. Gas is vital for industrial processes.
15
Industrial Sector Gas ConsumptionManufacturing - Detail
Source: EIA, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002
Bcf
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Chemicals Petroleum & Coal
Primary Metals
Food Paper NonmetallicMineral
FabricatedMetal
Transportation Equipment
Plastics & Rubber
2,246
854686
567 490411
204 198 125
TotalIndustrial Market
6.3 Tcf (17.2 Bcf/d)
TotalIndustrial Market
6.3 Tcf (17.2 Bcf/d)
2002
16
1.1
1.9
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.7
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.8
Top 5 Coastal ConsumersTX, CA, LA, NY, FLASource: EIA, Natural Gas Annual 2006
In Bcf/d
20052005
2.12.12.12.1
6.16.16.16.1
3.03.03.03.0
1.7
Logic Of U.S. Gulf Coast As Preferred Destination
Depth of U.S. Gulf Coast market
Pipeline takeaway to all major North American markets
Complimentary seasonal peak
Depth of U.S. Gulf Coast market
Pipeline takeaway to all major North American markets
Complimentary seasonal peak
9.99.99.99.9 3.53.53.53.5
Creole Trail
Sabine Pass
Corpus Christi
10101010
17
GETTING REAL ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT
The McCain – Lieberman Climate Act (S.280)estimate a reduction in natural gas consumption by 2030.
Also an addition of 145 new Nuclear power plants. Wind generation of 38GW. 2X historical build rate. Biomass generation growing from 2GW. To 112GW. Today wind and solar together account for ½ of 1%. The Natural gas Council estimates gas consumption will
in fact increase 20% from 2019 to 2030. Global CO2 emissions are growing faster in
nondeveloped countries than in the developed world.
18
WHAT ROLE FOR THE STATES?
Promote diverse energy portfolios that include LNG as a key component.
Support longer term contracts for LDCs that attract LNG supplies.
Recognize the global supply market and become a player.
Encourage realistic Greenhouse Gas assumptions.
19
• 4 Deep water channels
• 7 Unloading Docks
• 15 Storage Tanks (51 Bcf equivalent)
• 11.4 Bcf/d Regas Capacity
Cheniere LNG Receiving Terminals
Creole Trail3.3 Bcf/d
Freeport (30%)1.5 Bcf/d
Under ConstructionUnder Construction
Corpus Christi2.6 Bcf/d
• 274 Miles of pipeline
• 42 - 48” diameter
• 20 Bcf/d interconnect capacity
NortheastNortheast Midwest & Canada Midwest & Canada
MexicoMexico
SoutheastSoutheast
Gulf CoastGulf Coast
Cheniere’s receipt network provides high reliability and liquidityCheniere’s receipt network provides high reliability and liquidityFully PermittedFully Permitted
Fully PermittedFully Permitted
Sabine Pass4.0 Bcf/d
Under ConstructionUnder Construction
20
Sabine Pass Terminal ConstructionJanuary 2008