Globalism to localism

Living with minerals 4Shaping UK minerals policy

7 November 2011

Living with minerals 4: Shaping UK minerals policyGlobalism to localism

EU Raw Materials Supply Initiative – updateGwenole Cozigou, DirectorEuropean Commission Enterprise and Industry Directorate-General

Globalism to localism

Living with minerals 4Shaping UK minerals policy

7 November 2011

Living with minerals 4: Shaping UK minerals policyGlobalism to localism

Case studies – the link between minerals and security of food supply and other usesProfessor David Manning, Professor of Soil ScienceNewcastle University

The Link Between Minerals and Security of Food Supply

David Manning FGS CSci CGeol EurGeolProfessor of Soil Science

Newcastle University

At the heart of the problemGlobal population is growing, but (overall) at a decreasing rate:

7 billion in 20129 billion in 2050

At the heart of the problemGlobal population is growing, but (overall) at a decreasing rate:

7 billion in 20129 billion in 2050

Africa: 1 billion in 20122 billion in 2050

At the heart of the problem

The global population needs mineral resources.GDP and mineral use correlate:

USGS: Rogich, D.G., and Matos, G.R., 2008, The global flows of metals and minerals: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008–1355, 11 p., available only online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1355/.

MineralsGDP

We need minerals more than ever• As raw materials for industry• As fuels• As fertilisersBut there are pressures:• How can we guarantee security of raw material

supply?• What about ‘peak phosphorus’?• How can we reconcile fossil fuel use with climate

change, and keep the lights on?• What might the alternatives be?

We need to understand minerals more than ever

• And to use intelligence:

Fertiliser minerals• These illustrate very well some of the

paradoxes that exist• They are absolutely essential to support

human life• When we remove a crop, we mine nutrients

from the soil• When we import a crop, do we pay the

farmers enough to replace the nutrients?

The price of fertilisers has boomed:

Fertiliser prices• Prices peaked in 2008• N and P price rises matched those of oil,

and came down to pre-2008 levels• K has stayed high• K reached $1000/tonne in some markets

in 2008• K is three times the price it was in 2007

(now almost $500/tonne)

What about phosphorus?

• Cordell, D., Drangert, J.-O., and White, S., (2009) The Story of Phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought. Global Environmental Change, 19, 292-305

16 countries produce 95% of the world’s P (159 MT phosphate rock)

30% global production 10-20% global production 1-10% global production

The phosphorus paradox• People talk about ‘peak phosphorus’, based on

analogies with oil

• Cordell, D., Drangert, J.-O., and White, S., (2009) The Story of Phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought. Global Environmental Change, 19, 292-305

This does not take into account the huge resource base; very different from oil.

Reserves are only part of the storyP resources are enormous (USGS)

Phosphorus occurs in abundance• USGS reports that there are 1600 known

phosphorus mines, extinct, dormant, active.• P reserves (and projected life) have increased

from 100 years to nearly 400 years:

Tonnes phosphate rock

Phosphorus occurs in abundance• USGS reports that there are 1600 known

phosphorus mines, extinct, dormant, active.• P reserves (and projected life) have increased

from 100 years to nearly 400 years:

Tonnes phosphate rock

Financial Times, 7 September 2011

The phosphorus paradox

• Why do we throw away so much P?• Phosphate pollution is a major issue –

how can we use P more sustainably?– Struvite (NH4MgPO4.6H2O)– Sewage as a source of P

We can recover P from waste waters

Potash (K)

• Very different to P• Much more soluble• More limited in terms of sources• Not a pollutant, apparentlyDifficult to recover from waste waters

Why is K so important?

K is a vital mineral component of all crops:

K that is consumed has to be replaced.

Demand for potash

• Although northern hemisphere countries have enough K inputs, there are major shortfalls in K addition elsewhere.

• Nutrient balance studies show that replacement of K removed with crops is often inadequate.

• Worldwide potash mine production needs to double to balance offtake at the present day.

Africa, for example:

Sheldrick and Lingard (2004):

Africa, for example:

Sheldrick and Lingard (2004):

From FAO data:Africa consumes 485000 T potash/year.47/57 African countries buy no K fertiliser.About 1.5% of world potash production feeds 15% of the world’s population.

12 countries produce 99% of the world’s K (33.5 MT K2O equivalent)

35% global production 10-20% global production 1-10% global production

Potash production

• Very different to P:

Tonnes K2O

Potash is big business

Potash price and supply

• Unlikely to go below $350/tonne• World production needs to double• Suppliers control the market

90% of potash reserves are found in North America

35% global production 10-20% global production 1-10% global production

Fertiliser minerals present a challenge

• Will conventional products be accessible (price, logistics) to growing populations, which will double in Africa?

• How can we use our knowledge of geological/soil processes to fill the gaps in provision, if conventional fertilisers are inaccessible?

An urgent area for research

Conclusions

• Minerals are vital for society• The challenge of the next 30 years is enormous• We need intelligence and expertise of the type

that the British Geological Survey provides• The materials that we need to mine are in the

ground• Our universities need to create new knowledge

to rise to the challenge