Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international...
-
date post
19-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
240 -
download
0
Transcript of Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international...
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
The System Approach Framework
Formulating the economic componentThe WADBOS example
Denis Bailly Université de Brest, UMR AMURE
Center for the Law and Economics of the Sea
www.spicosa.eu
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Based on a system approach, the System Approach Framework (SAF) is
a multidisciplinary assessment framework developed :
-to explore the dynamics of Social and Ecological systems and potential
consequences of alternative policy scenarios,
- with a balanced consideration of the Ecological, Social and Economic
sectors of these Systems,
- to conduct participatory co-construction and deliberation over “what
if?” scenarios
It has been developed and tested in support to the implementation of
environmental sustainability agenda in the coastal zone (WFD, MSFD,
Habitat directive, Common Fisheries Policy, Common Agriculture
Policy…)
The SAF
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
..so why is it difficult to model social and ecological
systems?
S-E systems demonstrate:
• Non-matching scales• Surprises (non-linearities)• Interconnection with other
systems• Memory effects• Choke points
socio-ecological systems are difficult to
model
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Implementation of system approach to :
- Modify the feedback loops path that are at the core of the coastal systems dynamics
by placing at the core and considering public policies as control factors over the fate of systems,
by developing a knowledge more integrator of ecological, social and economic dimensions,
presented under scenarios approach,
and based on a deliberative approach of the interface between scientific knowledge and public policies for issues identification as well as for the evaluation of science’s products (production).
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
- Link ecological, economic and social systems- take into account dynamics through feedback loops- Scenarios based analysis (control factors)
Procedure:a) (Policy) Issue definition (co-construction and co-definition of the issue with stakeholders)b) System design (structure and components of the conceptual model)c) Mathematical formulation (updated conceptual model)d) Scenarios implementation
e) Integration of knowledge and provision of deliberative and decision making processes
Approach
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Policy Issue definition
Stakeholders’ mapping and analysis of their system’s perception
Designing/Building the system
Conceptual modelMathematical modelSystem assessment
Visualisation of scenario outputs for deliberation
Back to design….
From Engelen, 2003
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
About systems
‘A System is a configuration of parts connected and joined together by a web of relationships to serve a particular purpose’;
Ex. a car, a plane, the human body, an organization, … , an economy, a regional system, a coastal system.
Joining and integrating this network of relationships create Emergent properties of the whole (that is more than the sum of parts);
The parts of the system can be systems of their own, and systems can be the parts of bigger systems. They fit in a hierarchy.
Ex. engine of the car < car < car in the transportation system;Ex. fisherman in the fishing community < fishing community< fishing community in the global economy;
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
System approach relies on the mathematical formulation of cause/effect relations, the objective being to assess how the system evolves over time (stability, ‘overshooting’, thresholds effects)
State variables representing successive (over time) states (stocks, levels) of systems
- Integration of instantaneous variations through time- Number of inhabitants, pollutants concentration, number of
enterprises, …
Rate of change representing activities and processes leading to changes in the systems’ state.
- Decision rules, continuous function- Investment rate, growth rate,..
Interactions between variables determining action rules- Positive, negative feedback loops
Limits and boundaries within those interactions take place
General Structure of Systems
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Behavior rules (laws)- Energy fluxes (processes)- Energy accumulation (state variables)- Feedback (causal)
Boundary- Environmental conditions are represented by forcing variables- If the organism influences its environment, system’s limits will take
into account some other processes and state variables
Mathematical formulation: integration of differential equations
Emerging property: asymptotic growth, reproduction effort
(A classic case: the energy allocation in a living organism and asymptotic growth (von Bertalanffy))
Analysis of living organism as a system
Kooijman (2000)
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Extension to population dynamics
-Life cycle and feedback loops
-Mathematical formulation
From Bald et al. (2006)
G: Growth Rate
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
History of systems analysis and systems dynamics
-Forrester 1961, Industrial Dynamics
-von Bertalanffy 1968, General System Theory
-Forrester 1969, Urban Dynamics
-Forrester 1971, Principles of Systems
-Meadows/Randers/Meadows 1972, 2004, Limits to Growth
« overshoot » (overpassing the carrying capacity of dynamic system) under 3 conditions (analysis of socio-eco-systems dynamics)
-Morecroft 2007, Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics
Limits of growth: analysis of socio-eco-systems dynamics, consequences of existing limits, importance of non linearities
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
The Dutch Wadden Sea is an unique natural reserve, a shallow sea, but also an area where people live, work and recreate. Conflicts of interest! Need for Policy and Management!
System approach examplethe WadBOS case illustration
(From Engelen 2003)
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
The WadBOSeconomic subsystem
Major economic activities are Shell mining, Fisheries, Recreation, Shipping of goods & people, Industry, Gas-mining and Electricity.
Most activities carried out at sea are an input into the local industry and cause directly or indirectly the need for transportation of goods and people
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Coupled Socio-economic and Natural- biological processes
at 3 temporal scales
Time horizon 10 YearsTime horizon 10 Years: jan. 1997 : jan. 1997 –– dec. 2006 dec. 2006
12 hours;
month;
yearmonth;
year
Social, EconomicSocial, Economic Natural, Natural, BiologicalBiological
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
The Mussels Fishery
Macro economic nature = Mussels fishery is considered as one single aggregated vessel.
Other economic activities have the same formulated structure.
The solely economic system is considered here. The ecological system is considered as a black box and the economic activity is considered under the private angle (decisions are based on private choices, public and social choices as well as the social dimension will be integrated and considered in the next step of the formulation through the coupling).
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Assumptions
INFRASTRUCTURE: (stock)Total infrastructure has units horse power. It represents the total capacity of the fleet.
Infrastructure has a lifetime and then depletes at a constant rate per month. Investments increase the infrastructure. The maximum is set at 100,000 HP.
INVESTMENT: (flux)A certain fraction of the profits can be invested in infrastructure if the profits outweigh
the costs due to employment, taxes and maintenance of the infrastructure.
EMPLOYMENT: (stock)Employment depends on the total infrastructure (man months needed to staff units of
infrastructure)
CATCHES (flux) (Q) result in the fishing effort (hours per month) over Mussels population through a catchability coefficient (per hour).
Monthly catches accumulate and are limited by TAC. Once TAC is reached there's no more fishing (fishing mortality = 0).
TURNOVER (TO) is the valuation of Catches according to the price per ton of mussels (P). Mussel price decreases when supply increases (where is the price elasticity).
ADDED VALUE: Added value is assumed to be a fraction of the turnover. Added value is taxed by a tax
rate.
POLICY COST is related to the tax rate applied to added value.
ttt PP 1
State Variables = stock
Processes = flux
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Infrastructures
CatchesGoing for fishing (yield)
Added Value
Selling catches
« Investment »Decison rule on
investment
Increase in infrastructures
Apply a TAC
Limit in fleet size
Apply atax rate
3 Policy Options
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Dynamics of the InfrastructureDepreciation
Feedback loop
Infrastructures have a limited life span and as consequence are depreciated along this expected life time.
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Feedback loop
Conceptual model of the flow of currency
Mathematical model
Updated conceptual model
l
tureInfrastruc
dt
cturedInfrastru 1
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Feedback loop
Investment: a certain fraction of the profits can be invested in infrastructures (defined here as a shared of added value).
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
l
tureInfrastrucInvestment
dt
cturedInfrastru
Feedback loop
Conceptual model of the flow of currency
Mathematical model
Updated conceptual model
Adding Investment
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
++
Adding Investment
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Feedback loop
+
Adding Investment
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Feedback loop
Conceptual model of the flow of currency
Mathematical model
Updated conceptual model
l
tureInfrastructureInfrastruckTurnoverk
dt
cturedInfrastru 21
Adding Investment
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Conceptual model of the flow of currency
Mathematical model
Updated conceptual model
l
tureInfrastructureInfrastruckTurnoverk
dt
cturedInfrastru 21
Adding Investment
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
mussel population
catch
turnover
added value
investments
infrastructure(fleet size)
policy cost
employment
Ageing
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Feedback Loop and Policy options
Positive feedbacks: if A increases, then B increasesNegative feedbacks: if A increases, then B decreases
Change TAC
Change fleet size
Changetax rate
+/-
+/-
+/-
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Conceptual Model and mathematical formulation
Cause/effect
Stock/flow
l
tureInfrastructureInfrastruckTurnoverk
dt
cturedInfrastru 21
Differential equation
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Feedback Loops
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
From Maes J.
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Conceptual Model of the WadBOS coastal ecosystem
From Maes J.
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Updated Conceptual Model under the Extend simulation platform
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Updated Conceptual Model under the Extend simulation platform
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Going further in formulation:
- Formulate the profit and turnover formation, other policy options
- Investments are based on perceived future earnings rather than present earnings. That calls for expected catches and profits but also opportunity costs that will lead to decision rules (stay in or leave the business).
- Delays
mussel population
catch
turnover
added value
investments
infrastructure(fleet size)
February 2008
October2008
End 2008 / 2009
Improvement and Discussion
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Introduction to non monetary value by adding birds (eirds) to the system: assess new assumptions and explain how it can impact the economic system and its formulation.
WadBOS case: eiders valuation
WadBOS case: people derive well-being from eiders
- Bird watching: use value
- Existence, bequest, altruistic value: non-use values
A hypothetical example inspired from literature1 is used here: CV survey has not actually been carried out
1 Ahearn, M.C., K.J. Boyle and D.R. Hellerstein (2006), Brouwer, R., P. van Beukering and E. Sultanian (2008), Loomis, J.B., D. S. White (1996), MacMillan, D., N. Hanley and M. Daw (2004)
Improvement and Discussion
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Adding eiders valuation
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
Adding eiders valuation
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
• Spatialization of sources and impacts
Build databases of model outputs (PCRASTER, etc.)
• Matrix of stakeholders, scenarios and indicators, with metrics defined by stakeholders
• Use EXTEND as a communication tool, not necessarily an operational tool
• The message of the WadBOS case is to start with simple models that integrate disciplines. Add detail later and only if it is necessary
Integration of disciplines requires simpler, not complex, models. So contrary to common thinking, the more integration represented in the model, the simpler the model needs to be to allow for testing, detecting feedbacks, time delays and to allow for use by scientists from different disciplines or end users with different backgrounds.
Improvement and Discussion
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
System approach relies on the mathematical formulation of cause/effect relations, the objective being to assess how the system evolves over time (stability, ‘overshooting’, thresholds effects).
This supposes a multidisciplinary approach of interactions between eco and socio-systems► Definition of the policy issue with/by stakeholders► System co-construction and conceptual representations► Mathematical formulation: answer curves, meta-analysis, mechanist models► Construction of relevant indicators
► Exploration of management and evolution scenarios
www.spicosa.euConclusion 1/2
Littoral 2008 – A changing coast: challenge for the environmental policies 9th international conferenceNovember 25 - 28, 2008 – Venice Italy
Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment
It’s rather a top-down approach, which primary objective is not to provide an operational tool to support decision making, but rather to explore the potential evolution of a system
It’s an iterative approach allowing sharing, discussing, improving the description and the understanding of a system
Output/visualisation must be set so that they contribution to increase communication with scientists and among stakeholders
www.spicosa.euConclusion 2/2