Literacy and the transition to adulthood in rural Malawi
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Transcript of Literacy and the transition to adulthood in rural Malawi
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LITERACY AND THE TRANSITION TO ADULTHOOD IN RURAL MALAWI
Barbara S. Mensch, Stephanie Psaki, Erica Soler-HampejsekPopulation Council, New York
(Collaborators on research: Monica J. Grant, University of Wisconsin; Christine A. Kelly , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; and Paul C. Hewett, Population Council, Lusaka)
UNICEF International Symposium on Cohort and Longitudinal Studies in Developing Countries
Florence, Italy October 13, 2014
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Background• In developing countries, considerable progress has
been achieved in:– increasing access to schooling – narrowing gender gap
• Focus shifting to improving learning outcomes, particularly in settings with enormous expansion in school enrollment but relatively poor school quality
• In part because longitudinal data are lacking, the extent to which skills are retained upon leaving school is largely unknown, as are – implications of early marriage and childbearing for
learning retention; and– implications of literacy skills for timing of marriage and
childbearing
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Research questions• Do adolescent students in rural Malawi
acquire and retain basic literacy skills?• Is there a gender difference in acquisition
and retention of literacy skills? • What are the implications, if any, of early
marriage and childbearing for literacy skills?• What is the association, if any, between
literacy skills and the timing of marriage and childbearing?
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Context: Malawi• Among world’s 10 poorest countries• Predominantly rural• Near universal access to primary school
since elimination of primary school fees in 1994
• Near gender parity in school entry • Education system: 8-4-4• Low primary completion rates:
approximately 51% of males and 38% of females aged 20-24 completed primary (Malawi DHS 2010)
• English official language of instruction in Standard 5 (may change to Standard 1)
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YearStudent Sample Follow-Up Rate
2008 95%2009 93%2010 91%2011 91%2013 84%
6
• Balaka and Machinga districts: southern region (highest HIV prevalence, lowest age at marriage)
• 1764 in-school adolescents enrolled in standards 4-8 (886 out-of-school)
• Ages 14-16 at baseline, January 2007
• 59 schools: probability of inclusion proportional to enrollment in 2006
Malawi Schooling and Adolescent Study (MSAS):Sample
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Malawi Schooling and Adolescent Study: Content• household and family characteristics, schooling history and experiences • school quality R1-3, 2007-9• Raven’s testing (non-verbal cognitive skills) R6, 2013• literacy and numeracy assessments• labor force participation • social capital and community engagement• migration • sexual behavior, marriage, fertility intentions, fertility, contraceptive use • self-reported health• mother (R1, 2007 and R6, 2013) and child height/weight (R6, 2013)• parenting practices, well-baby care • HIV and HSV-2 (testing R4-R6, 2010, 2011, 2013)• parenting practices (R6, 2013), well-baby care (R4-6, 2010, 2011, 2013) • use of health services (link to 2013 DHS Service Provision Assessment)
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MSAS: English literacy assessments• Reading aloud R1-6: respondents asked to read 2 sentences in
English (proficiency expected by standard 4). Sentences taken verbatim from 2004 DHS.– Score = 0 cannot read – Score = 1 able to read parts of both sentences or one sentence
but not both– Score = 2 able to read both sentences
• Reading comprehension R2-6: limited to those who could read the first 3 sentences of a short story (approx. 80 words) aloud. Story taken verbatim from Malawi Institute of Education 2005 English test for Standard 3.– Score 0-5 according to the number of questions answered
correctly• Literacy loss: limited to those with a score>0 at baseline for
reading aloud and at R2 for reading comprehension
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Timing of first marriage and first birth• Respondent is categorized as having a 1st
marriage/union or 1st birth if reports either of these events and reported in previous rounds having never been married/given birth
• Excluded small number of respondents who experienced marriage or childbirth by baseline
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Do adolescent students in rural Malawi acquire and retain basic literacy skills?
Is there a gender difference in acquisition and retention of literacy skills?
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Ability to read aloud and reading comprehension; MSAS respondents in school at baseline (N=766-794 males; 769-794 females)
Baseline 2007
Round 5 2011
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
68%
84%74%
75%**
Percent able to read aloud in English
Round 2 2008
Round 4 2010
0
1
2
3
4
5
1.8
2.6
1.5
1.8***
Mean number of correct answers to 5 reading com-
prehension questions
Statistically significant difference between males and females, adjusting for highest grade attended; *** p<.001; **p<.01
MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY
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Change in ability to read aloud in English between baseline (2007) and R5 (2011)
MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2007 AND 2011)
Males Females 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
(N=797) (N=794)
Blues = no change, Greens = gain, Reds = loss
Was able to read
R1 R52
Sentences 2 Sentences
+ Some 2 Sentences
+ None 2 Sentences
+ None Some
Some Some
- 2 Sentences Some
- 2 Sentences None
- Some None
None None
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Males Females0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
26%34%
15%
28%
59%
39%
GainSameLoss
(N=660) (N=672)
Change in reading comprehension between R2 (2008) and R4 (2010)
MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2008 AND 2010)
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Explanatory Variable Bivariate MultivariableFemale 3.02*** 1.63ƗRead parts of sentences at R1 (ref=both sentences) 0.59 Ɨ 0.22***Attended school, R5 0.12*** 0.35**Highest grade attended, R5 (ref=secondary school Standard 4-5 15.93*** 19.14*** Standard 6-7 9.70*** 6.49*** Standard 8 2.81** 1.78Worked in past 12 months, R5 0.61Ɨ 0.55*
LOSS IN ENGLISH READING SKILLS BETWEEN BASELINE AND R5: ODDS RATIOS FROM LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS SAMPLE= THOSE RE-INTERVIEWED IN R5 WHO COULD READ AT LEAST PART OF ONE SENTENCE IN ENGLISH AT BASELINE (N=1445)
Multivariable models include: cell phone access, books in HH, started primary late, repeated standards 1-3, age, ethnicity, parental education, HH assets.
MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2007 AND 2011)
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Explanatory Variable Bivariate MultivariableFemale 1.75*** 2.29***Comprehension score in R2 1.42*** 1.90***Attended school, R2 0.47** 0.80Attending school, R4 0.57*** 1.01Highest grade attended, R4 (ref=secondary school) Standard 4-5 3.28* 5.47** Standard 6-7 2.07*** 3.29*** Standard 8 1.42 Ɨ 2.10**Worked in past 12 months, R4 0.89 1.08
LOSS IN ENGLISH READING COMPREHENSION BETWEEN R2 AND 4: ODDS RATIOS FROM LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS SAMPLE = THOSE RE-INTERVIEWED IN R2 & R4 WHO READ 1ST 3 SENTENCES OF SHORT STORY IN ENGLISH AND ANSWERED AT LEAST ONE COMPREHENSION QUESTION CORRECTLY IN R2 (N=1086)
Multivariable models include: cell phone access, books in HH, started primary late, repeated standards 1-3, age, ethnicity, parental education, HH assets.
MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2008 AND 2010)
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What are the implications, if any, of early marriage and childbearing for literacy skills?
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PROBABILITY OF REMAINING UNMARRIED OR CHILDLESS FOR STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011 (N=875 MALES, 856 FEMALES)
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 50.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Male, MarriageMale, FatherhoodFemale, MarriageFemale, Moth-erhood
Prob
abili
ty
MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2007 - 2011)
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EFFECT OF MARRIAGE ON ENGLISH READING ABILITY: RESULTS FROM LINEAR FIXED EFFECTS MODELS, FEMALE STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011
ENGLISH READING ABILITY =0 (CAN’T READ), 1 (PARTIAL), 2 (BOTH SENTENCES)
MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2007 - 2011)
Fixed Effects Models
All female students at
baseline
Limited to those who could read
full sentences at baseline
Time since first marriage (ref = never married/before marriage)0-1 years -0.04 † -0.11 ***1-2 years -0.02 -0.08 *2-3 years -0.12 ** -0.15 ***3-4 years -0.15 ** -0.15 **
Educational attainment (ref = still in school)Dropped out, incomplete primary -0.10 ** -0.19 ***Dropped out, complete primary 0.009 0.01Dropped out, some secondary -0.003 0.01
English score at baseline -- --Number of observations 3837 2851 Number of groups (subjects) 801 592
All models exclude individuals who were lost to follow up between baseline and Round 5 (n = 55 females). Educational attainment and household items are lagged one round. Working/employed refers to the previous 12 month period. Household assets and work variables were included in the models.
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EFFECT OF CHILDBIRTH ON ENGLISH READING ABILITY: RESULTS FROM LINEAR FIXED EFFECTS MODELS, FEMALE STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011
ENGLISH READING ABILITY =0 (CAN’T READ), 1 (PARTIAL), 2 (BOTH SENTENCES)
MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2007 - 2011)
Fixed Effects Models
All female students at
baseline
Limited to those who could read
full sentences at baseline
Time since first birth (ref = no birth/before childbirth)0-1 years -0.04 -0.09 ***1-2 years -0.11 ** -0.10 ***2-3 years -0.10 * -0.09 *3-4 years -0.20 ** -0.23 ***
Educational attainment (ref = still in school) Dropped out, incomplete primary -0.09 ** -0.19 ***Dropped out, complete primary 0.03 0.01 Dropped out, some secondary 0.02 0.02
English score at baseline -- -- Number of observations 3837 2851 Number of groups (subjects) 801 592
All models exclude individuals who were lost to follow up between baseline and Round 5 (n = 55 females). Educational attainment and household items are lagged one round. Working/employed refers to the previous 12 month period. Household assets and work variables were included in the models.
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What is the association, if any, between literacy skills and the timing of marriage and childbearing?
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Explanatory Variable Bivariate MultivariableEnglish reading (ref = cannot read)
Can read part 0.99 1.31
Can read both sentences 0.64* 1.04
Late entry into primary 1.32** 1.20
Early grade repetition (ref = none)
Once 0.83 0.85
More than once 1.10 1.06
Attending school (ref = no) 0.28*** 0.33***
Highest grade attended (ref = < standard 6)
Standard 6 or 7 0.78Ɨ 1.05
Standard 8 0.71* 1.10
Form 1 or higher (secondary school) 0.40*** 0.92
EFFECT OF LITERACY ON FIRST MARRIAGE: HAZARD RATIOS FROM COX MODELS, STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011 (N=856 FEMALES)
Multivariable models include: age, ethnicity, employment, parental education, HH assets.
MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2007 - 2011)
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Explanatory Variable Bivariate MultivariableEnglish reading (ref = cannot read)
Can read part 0.91 1.15
Can read both sentences 0.67 Ɨ 1.16
Late entry into primary 1.25* 1.06
Early grade repetition (ref = none)
Once 0.83 0.80
More than once 0.94 0.89
Attending school (ref = no) 0.15*** 0.15***
Highest grade attended (ref = < standard 6)
Standard 6 or 7 0.78 Ɨ 1.23
Standard 8 0.68* 1.13
Form 1 or higher (secondary school) 0.37*** 1.19
EFFECT OF LITERACY ON FIRST BIRTH: HAZARD RATIOS FROM COX MODELS, STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011 (N=856 FEMALES)
Multivariable models include: age, ethnicity, employment, parental education, HH assets.
MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2007 - 2011)
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EFFECT OF LITERACY ON SCHOOL DROPOUT: HAZARD RATIOS FROM COX MODELS, FEMALE STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011 (N=869)
Explanatory Variable Bivariate MultivariableEnglish reading (ref=cannot read) Can read part 0.89 0.87 Can read both sentences 0.65* 0.65Ɨ
Highest grade attended (ref = < standard 6)Standard 6 or 7 0.78 Ɨ 0.95Standard 8 0.83 1.12Form 1 or higher (secondary school) 0.53*** 0.80
Late entry into primary (ref = entered on time) 1.24* 1.06Early grade repetition (ref=none) 1.04 0.95
Multivariable models include: age, ethnicity, employment, parental education, HH assets.
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Summary: Literacy & transitions to adulthood in Malawi• Many students are not acquiring basic literacy skills in
primary school; only 68% of males & 74% of females could read 2 English sentences aloud at baseline and comprehension is poor.
• Over time, adolescent females are less likely to gain and more likely to lose literacy skills.
• The gender difference in literacy retention remains significant in models controlling for school attendance, educational attainment, work, demographic characteristics and SES, reflecting broader female disadvantage.
• Preliminary analyses suggest that literacy skills weaken for females who have married or given birth; the effect appears to grow stronger as time since marriage or birth increases.
• While literacy does not have a direct effect on timing of marriage and childbearing controlling for current school attendance, it appears to have an indirect effect.
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MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY DONORS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur
National Institute of
Child Health and
Human Develop-
ment
DFID, U.K.
SpencerNational Institute of Child Health and
Human Development
William and Flora Hewlett
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