LinkedIn

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Stock Price 110.30 Industry/Sector Internet/ Tech TTM P/E 735.65 52 Week Price Range 61.90 - 125.50 Market Cap. 12.16B Current Ratio 2.61 3-Month Avg. Vol. 2,012,160 Enterprise Value 12.04B Price/Sales 12.03 Shares Outstanding 107.45M Debt/ Equity 0 Basis of recommendation Jan 5 th , 2013 LinkedIn Corporation Naveen Garg NYSE: LNKD Portfolio Manager (Tech & Telecom), RSIF CFA Level III Candidate, CFA Institute, VA, USA Recommendation: Buy MBA Candidate, Rotman School of Management, UofT Target Price: $129.64 [email protected] Last Close Price: $110.30 Cell: +1 (416) 671 6440 Volume Summary: LinkedIn continues to grow at a high growth rate (2008- 2011 Revenue CAGR 87.5%) and we expect the revenue CAGR to be 49% over next 4 years. In our opinion with increased monetization of its user base and technology through a focus on sales and marketing, LinkedIn will be able to improve its profitability going further. Considering its revenue and earnings growth potential we believe that LinkedIn is an undervalued stock. Revenue: Increasing enterprise customer base is expected to provide steady and predictable revenue stream New features like New Profile Page, Endorsements and Influencers have improved user engagement and page views which in our opinion might result in stronger performance by marketing segment We expect that the high growth rate in the user base in the emerging markets could lead to continuing high revenue growth Improved economic outlook and recent trend in employment are expected to drive up recruitment Earnings: We expect the net income and EPS growth to be consistently high in the coming years as a result of higher profit margins and growing revenues Threat: Poor performance by Monster Worldwide had a significant negative impact on LinkedIn’s share price even though LinkedIn’s numbers were stellar. In our opinion the two companies are very different and in completely different stages of life cycles Valuation: We value LinkedIn with a DCF to arrive at a price target of $129.64 per share, 17.5% higher than the current market price of $110.30 Our target price is an equal weighted average (50:50) of DCF value using 3% terminal growth rate and 17.1x exit EV/EBITDA multiple based DCF value Source: LinkedIn Source: Yahoo Finance 2011 2010 2009 2008 Revenue 522.0 243.0 120.0 79.0 Gross Profit 440.7 198.3 94.3 60.2 Operating Income 25.84 19.58 -3.35 -5.51 Net Income 11.91 3.43 -3.97 -4.52 EPS 0.13 0.04 -0.04 -0.05 (In millions of USD except EPS) Source: LinkedIn

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Transcript of LinkedIn

Page 1: LinkedIn

Stock Price 110.30 Industry/Sector Internet/ Tech TTM P/E 735.65

52 Week Price Range 61.90 - 125.50 Market Cap. 12.16B Current Ratio 2.61

3-Month Avg. Vol. 2,012,160 Enterprise Value 12.04B Price/Sales 12.03

Shares Outstanding 107.45M Debt/ Equity 0

Basis of recommendation

Jan 5th, 2013

LinkedIn Corporation Naveen Garg

NYSE: LNKD Portfolio Manager (Tech & Telecom), RSIF

CFA Level III Candidate, CFA Institute, VA, USA

Recommendation: Buy MBA Candidate, Rotman School of Management, UofT

Target Price: $129.64 [email protected] Last Close Price: $110.30 Cell: +1 (416) 671 6440

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Summary: LinkedIn continues to grow at a high growth rate (2008-2011 Revenue CAGR 87.5%) and we expect the revenue CAGR to be 49% over next 4 years. In our opinion with increased monetization of its user base and technology through a focus on sales and marketing, LinkedIn will be able to improve its profitability going further. Considering its revenue and earnings growth potential we believe that LinkedIn is an undervalued stock.

Revenue:

Increasing enterprise customer base is expected to provide steady and predictable revenue stream

New features like New Profile Page, Endorsements and Influencers have improved user engagement and page views which in our opinion might result in stronger performance by marketing segment

We expect that the high growth rate in the user base in the emerging markets could lead to continuing high revenue growth

Improved economic outlook and recent trend in employment are expected to drive up recruitment

Earnings:

We expect the net income and EPS growth to be consistently high in the coming years as a result of higher profit margins and growing revenues

Threat:

Poor performance by Monster Worldwide had a significant negative impact on LinkedIn’s share price even though LinkedIn’s numbers were stellar. In our opinion the two companies are very different and in completely different stages of life cycles

Valuation:

We value LinkedIn with a DCF to arrive at a price target of $129.64 per share, 17.5% higher than the current market price of $110.30

Our target price is an equal weighted average (50:50) of DCF value using 3% terminal growth rate and 17.1x exit EV/EBITDA multiple based DCF value

Source: LinkedIn

Source: Yahoo Finance

2011 2010 2009 2008

Revenue 522.0 243.0 120.0 79.0

Gross Profit 440.7 198.3 94.3 60.2

Operating Income 25.84 19.58 -3.35 -5.51

Net Income 11.91 3.43 -3.97 -4.52

EPS 0.13 0.04 -0.04 -0.05

(In millions of USD except EPS)

Source: LinkedIn

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2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

EV / EBITDA 135.4x 55.7x 30.1x 19.5x 13.5x

Valuation Summary

LinkedIn continues to grow at a significantly high rate in all of its three product categories: Talent Solutions, Marketing Solutions and Premium Subscriptions; however as the base increases, the growth rate is expected to come down in the coming years. Following chart shows revenue growth forecast and the adjacent table shows some key projected numbers through 2016.

Source: LinkedIn, Research Forecast

Note: All numbers in thousands of USD

Current Enterprise Value (EV) of LinkedIn is $12.04B. Forward EV/EBITDA for the forecasted EBITDA is shown in the adjacent table. Considering the current and future high growth rate of the company, forward EV/EBITDA indicates headroom for the stock price. Target Price Calculation: Using DCF method, with terminal growth rate of 3%, the calculated per share value is $119.37. Considering terminal value using exit EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.1x1, the target price per share is $139.91. The suggested target price of $129.64 is average of target price given by the two methods. At current market price of $110.30/share, the expected upside is close to 17.5%. Comparable Company Analysis

LinkedIn has three very distinct revenue streams and a very unique underlying business model based on professional connections. We believe not one single company is truly comparable to LinkedIn. Below is a snapshot of some comparable companies in the three revenue streams based on the closest match of the revenue model. In our opinion taking average or median multiples to value LinkedIn might not be a practical approach as these companies are at different stages in their growth cycles and have different business models. Overall, LinkedIn is priced at higher multiples in all three revenue categories. These higher multiples can be attributed to the significantly higher growth rate of LinkedIn’s user base and revenue as compared to the competitors.

Note: Market Cap, No. of Shares, EV, Revenue and EBITDA numbers are millions. Sales and EBITDA are analyst consensus forecast for FY 2012. Source: Thomson Reuters

1 EV/EBITDA multiple for internet industry as per NYU-Stern publication

2011 A 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Revenue 522,189 964,065 1,640,592 2,533,070 3,518,288 4,820,415

EBITDA 68,945 101,227 246,089 455,953 703,658 1,012,287

EBIT 25,845 20,496 92,321 240,665 418,967 634,311

Net Income 11,912 14,074 71,535 190,210 332,851 505,127

FCFF 1,667 99,212 191,315 401,655 553,458

Comparable companies' valuation ratios

Last Close

(Jan 05, 13)Mkt Cap

No. of

SharesEV Sales EBITDA P / E EV / Rev. EV / EBITDA P/Sales

Marketing Solutions

LinkedIn NYSE:LNKD 113.15 12,160 107.5 11,481 964 206 735.65 11.91 55.73 12.61

Facebook NASDAQ:FB 28.76 62,310 2,170.0 52,756 5,024 2,805 267.34 10.50 18.81 12.42

Renren NYSE:RENN 3.76 1,390 370.2 588.02 174 -82 -0.03 3.38 - 8.00

Google NASDAQ: GOOG 737.97 242,490 328.6 202,975 41,548 18,536 23.12 4.89 10.95 5.84

Yahoo! NASDAQ: YHOO 19.86 23,490 1,180.0 15,157 4,457 1,656 6.02 3.40 9.15 5.26

Talent Solutions

LinkedIn NYSE:LNKD 113.15 12,160 107.5 11,481 964 206 735.65 11.91 55.73 12.61

51Job NASDAQ: JOBS 53.02 1,530 28.8 1,150 1,434 510 21 0.80 2.26 1.07

Monster Worldwide NYSE:MWW 5.97 699.1 117.1 720 896 126 9.38 0.80 5.71 0.78

Dice Holdings NYSE:DHX 9.52 567.7 59.6 560 194 76 15.91 2.89 7.36 2.93

Premium Subscriptions

LinkedIn NYSE:LNKD 113.15 12,160 107.5 11,481 964 206 735.65 11.91 55.73 12.61

NetFlix NASDAQ: NFLX 95.98 5,330 55.6 4,933 3,599 142 121 1.37 34.74 1.48

Monster Worldwide NYSE:MWW 5.97 699.1 117.1 720 896 126 9.38 0.80 5.71 0.78

51Job NASDAQ: JOBS 53.02 1,530 28.8 1,150 1,434 510 21 0.80 2.26 1.07

Source: LinkedIn, Research Forecasts

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73%

117%

89% 108%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

USA OtherAmericas

EMEA APAC

Revenue Growth (2012Q3 YoY)

Business Overview

LinkedIn is world’s largest online professional network with more than 200 million members across the world. Its members manage professional identity and stay connected with their network through the website. Additionally, LinkedIn is also used by the corporations for marketing and recruitment purposes. LinkedIn has adapted to various platforms such as desktop computers, smartphones and tablet computers. There are three main product lines: Talent Solutions: Offerings in this product line provide an effective way for enterprises and professional organizations to efficiently identify and acquire the right talent for their needs. Marketing Solutions: Through offerings in this product line, LinkedIn enables marketers and advertisers to reach and engage with the audience and connect them to relevant products and services. Premium Subscriptions: Premium subscription services target small- and medium-sized enterprises and professional organizations, individual members and business groups in larger enterprises. Offerings in this product line are designed to manage their professional identity, grow their business and connect with talent.

All three revenue streams are growing at a high rate with the largest segment – Talent Solutions, growing at the highest rate. LinkedIn’s revenue share from Talent Solutions is increasing while from Marketing is decreasing. Increasing use of smartphones and tablets is posing a challenge in growing revenue from marketing stream. Smaller size of screen in these devices provides less or no space to show advertisements. However, as LinkedIn’s business model is relatively less dependent on online advertising, in our opinion this is not as big threat for the company as it is for other players like Facebook and Google. Geographic Diversification:

Along with well-established diversified revenue streams, other important aspect of LinkedIn’s business model is geographic diversification of revenue. The user base in countries outside the United States is growing at a significantly higher pace. Adjacent figure shows regional revenue growth in Q3-2012.

Company Strategy

A large and connected user base is the key to the success for LinkedIn. To increase the user base quickly, company focuses on multiple things such as registration optimization, seamless integration with other applications and suggested connections. LinkedIn aspires to be the professional profile of every professional in the world. To achieve this, the company emphasizes to gain trust of its members and continuously develops features which appeal to a broader base of professionals. In the recent times, LinkedIn has launched new features using which members can share information with

Source: LinkedIn

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each other. This initiative is increasing the engagement of its existing user base. We believe this can be useful in generating more revenue from the marketing segment as this revenue is dependent on page views.

Another key aspect of LinkedIn’s strategy is to adapt to the need of its workforce, customers and partners. It has released application libraries using which developers can create new applications. The company has opened offices across the world and increasing number of sales personnel is driving the monetization of investments in technology. Recognizing changing market landscape, LinkedIn has put conscious efforts to adapt to tablet and mobile platforms as a significant number of users are accessing LinkedIn through these devices.

Recent Business Highlights:

200 Million Milestone: Last week LinkedIn crossed 200 million users. This reinforces LinkedIn’s consistent high growth rate of the user base. This is approximately 35% growth during 2012.

Acquisitions: In May, 2012 LinkedIn paid $74.1M to acquire Slideshare, Inc., a privately held provider of a professional and educational content platform that allows users to upload documents to share ideas, conduct research and connect with others. Offerings of Slideshare are already integrated with LinkedIn by Q3-2012. In first nine months of 2012, LinkedIn also acquired 5 other smaller companies for a total of $58.2M.

Growth in international markets: Following are key milestones in terms of the user base achieved by the company in recent months: 10 million in UK, 2 million in South Africa, 1 million in Denmark, 1 million in Malaysia among others. This shows that the company is able to consistently broaden its user base globally. We believe this larger user base will pave a way for future business development in international markets. Industry Overview

LinkedIn’s industry can be broadly described as online networking; however the company has focused itself in the professional networking space. The market for online professional networks is new and rapidly evolving. In this new market LinkedIn is an undisputed industry leader.

Competition

LinkedIn faces significant competition in all aspects of its business. Other companies such as Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Twitter are developing or could develop competing solutions. Further, some of these companies are partnering with third parties to offer products and services that could compete with LinkedIn’s offerings.

LinkedIn also faces competition from a number of smaller companies in the international markets, such as Xing in Germany and Viadeo in France provide online professional networking solutions, as well as Internet companies in the customer relationship management market, such as salesforce.com (Chatter and Jigsaw).

LinkedIn also competes with established online recruiting companies such as Monster, CareerBuilder and Indeed.com, talent management companies, such as Taleo (acquired by Oracle), and traditional recruiting firms. Additionally, other companies, including newcomers to the recruiting industry, may partner with internet companies, including social networking companies, to provide services that compete with our solutions, either on their own or as third party applications, such as BranchOut. Additionally, LinkedIn competes with online and offline outlets that generate revenue from advertisers and marketers.

In this challenging market space LinkedIn has been able to redefine the business model by building a huge user base and providing them an ability to connect with others in a professional capacity. This value proposition has not been replicated by others at the large scale as done by LinkedIn. Taking example from Orkut and Facebook we can argue that a larger user base is critical in engaging people and the survival is also dependent on this. We think that this aspect put LinkedIn in an advantageous position as compared to others.

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Facebook Threat

Facebook does have a much larger use base than LinkedIn; however, a large part of that user base is not a target segment for the company. LinkedIn primarily targets recruiters, professionals and business owners. In many studies it has been shown that people generally prefer not to mix their personal and professional networks. This provides further support to the belief that LinkedIn will be able to maintain its niche market.

Risk Factors

LinkedIn faces multiple business risks. Some of the main risks which could affect company’s financial performance and hence valuations are as follows:

Competition: Competitors are developing features which overlap with the functionality provided by LinkedIn. For example, recently Facebook revamped its search feature to allow users to find connections and content more easily. If competitors find a better way to allow the users to build a professional network or find professional connections, it can be a significant challenge for the company.

Monetization of platform and products: In last two years LinkedIn has increased its workforce by twofold and has invested heavily in revamping the platform and developing new features. Going further, the focus will be monetization of these investments. If company fails to realize the expected benefits, there can be significant downside risk in terms of valuation. In particular, there are concerns around advertisement revenue as more and more people are using handheld devices to access LinkedIn.

Information Security: LinkedIn stores and transmits member and customer information some of which is private and sensitive in nature. Security breach might expose the company to litigation or business disruption. In June, 2012 password information of 6.5 million LinkedIn users was compromised.

Acquisitions: Lately, LinkedIn has been very aggressive in terms of acquisitions. In May 2012, it acquired Slideshare Inc. for $74.1M, LinkedIn’s largest acquisition so far. Additionally, the company also acquired five other companies for $58.2M in 2012. 78% of the transaction value of these acquisitions is recognized as goodwill which might result in impairment charges in the future. These acquisitions will also have dilutive effect on LinkedIn’s existing shareholders as both cash and equity component is being used for these deals. One of the prime motives behind these acquisitions is to get access to the talent of these smaller companies; however, if these people leave the company in large numbers, this motive might not be fulfilled.

Low number of active users: Number of registered members in LinkedIn network is higher than the number of actual members due to multiple registrations, dead people and fictitious profiles. Additionally, substantial majority of page views are generated by a minority of members who use LinkedIn regularly.

Corporate Governance: As of Sep 30, 2012, 63% of the voting rights are held by Mr. Reid Hoffman, the founder of the company. This type of situation might generate corporate governance issues as shareholders, apart from the founder, are always in minority from voting right perspective.

Foreign Currency Risk: LinkedIn is generating increasing share of revenue from international markets which exposes the company to foreign currency risk.

Cyclicality of business: LinkedIn considers first quarter of the year a lull period for talent solutions business and third quarter for Marketing Solutions. Currently, as the growth is significantly high, these lull periods do not show significant effect in the numbers; however, as the growth rate is expected to go down in the coming years, the cyclicality of the business might be more pronounced.

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Valuation

Revenue Forecast

LinkedIn is witnessing a significant growth rate in all of its revenue segments over past some years. As the base grows, the growth rate is expected to go down but still it will maintain a high level for next some years. Marketing segment growth rate is expected to be the slowest as the increased usage of mobile devices provides limited opportunity to show advertisements.

As the user base builds up in the international markets, the revenue growth is expected to in general remain high. Additionally, LinkedIn has started focusing on building a strong and international field presence through sales and marketing personnel. This could further support revenue growth from the enterprise customers in Talent Solutions and Marketing Solutions revenue streams. In the recently reported numbers LinkedIn also showed increase in user engagement trends due to recently launched features. Following are the estimated revenue growth forecast:

Forecasted Income Statement

As the monetization of investments in platform and features is expected to improve in the coming years, we estimate some further improvements in the profit margins. The future addition to the workforce is expected to be focused on sales and marketing staff which cost relatively less than the recent large number of newly hired software engineers.

Sales Forecast ------------------ Actuals ------------------ ------------------------------ Forecast ------------------------------------

Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31

Unit Type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Segmented sales

Hiring Solutions [#] [input] 36,136.0 101,884.0 260,885.0 521,770.0 939,186.0 1,502,697.6 2,103,776.6 2,945,287.3

[%] [calc], [input] 181.9% 156.1% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 40.0%

Marketing Solutions [#] [input] 38,278.0 79,309.0 155,848.0 252,473.8 378,710.6 530,194.9 689,253.4 896,029.4

[%] [calc], [input] 107.2% 96.5% 62.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0%

Premium Subscriptions [#] [input] 45,713.0 61,906.0 105,456.0 189,820.8 322,695.4 500,177.8 725,257.8 979,098.1

[%] [calc], [input] 35.4% 70.3% 80.0% 70.0% 55.0% 45.0% 35.0%

TOTAL [#] [calc] 120,127.0 243,099.0 522,189.0 964,064.6 1,640,592.0 2,533,070.3 3,518,287.8 4,820,414.7

[%] [calc] 102.4% 114.8% 84.6% 70.2% 54.4% 38.9% 37.0%

Income Statement ------- Actuals ------- ---------------------------- Forecast ------------------------------------

Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31

(in thousands of U.S. dollars) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total Revenues 243,099.0 522,189.0 964,064.6 1,640,592.0 2,533,070.3 3,518,287.8 4,820,414.7

Cost of goods sold (44,826.0) (81,448.0) (125,328.4) (213,277.0) (303,968.4) (422,194.5) (530,245.6)

Gross profit 198,273.0 440,741.0 838,736.2 1,427,315.0 2,229,101.9 3,096,093.3 4,290,169.1

SG&A (159,146.0) (371,796.0) (737,509.4) (1,181,226.2) (1,773,149.2) (2,392,435.7) (3,277,882.0)

EBITDA 39,127.0 68,945.0 101,226.8 246,088.8 455,952.7 703,657.6 1,012,287.1

Depreciation & amortization (19,551.0) (43,100.0) (80,731.0) (153,767.4) (215,287.5) (284,691.0) (377,975.9)

EBIT 19,576.0 25,845.0 20,495.7 92,321.4 240,665.2 418,966.5 634,311.2

Other Non- operating Income (expense) (610.0) (2,903.0) (2,903.0) (2,903.0) (2,903.0) (2,903.0) (2,903.0)

Earnings before taxes 18,966.0 22,942.0 17,592.7 89,418.4 237,762.2 416,063.5 631,408.2

Tax expense (3,581.0) (11,030.0) (3,518.5) (17,883.7) (47,552.4) (83,212.7) (126,281.6)

Net earnings(loss) from continuing items 15,385.0 11,912.0 14,074.2 71,534.7 190,209.8 332,850.8 505,126.6

Extraordinary gains / losses (11,956.0)

Minority interest

Net income 3,429.0 11,912.0 14,074.2 71,534.7 190,209.8 332,850.8 505,126.6

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Forecasted Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow Statement ------- Actuals ------- ---------------------------- Forecast ------------------------------------

Projected Fiscal Years Ending May 31

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Funds From Operating Activities

Net income 15,385.0 11,912.0 14,074.2 71,534.7 190,209.8 332,850.8 505,126.6

Depreciation of PP&E 19,551.0 43,100.0 80,731.0 153,767.4 215,287.5 284,691.0 377,975.9

Provision for doubtful accounts and sales returns 1,811.0 3,109.0 2,892.2 6,562.4 10,132.3 14,073.2 19,281.7

Stock based compensation 8,832.0 29,768.0 86,283.8 97,615.2 145,398.2 185,765.6 251,336.4

Excess Income tax benefit from exercise of stock options (129.0) (1,600.0) (4,314.2) (4,880.8) (7,269.9) (9,288.3) (12,566.8)

Funds from operations 45,450.0 86,289.0 179,667.0 324,598.9 553,757.8 808,092.3 1,141,153.7

(Increase) / decrease in accounts receivable (35,677.0) (54,908.0) (52,519.0) (82,197.8) (133,871.7) (77,416.9) (169,276.5)

(Increase) / decrease in deferred comission (5,798.0) (5,271.0) (3,759.2) (12,177.5) (13,531.5) (16,748.7) (17,315.7)

(Increase) / decrease in other currents assets (4,259.0) (14,111.0) (15,105.6) (22,139.3) (33,021.7) (22,379.9) (42,970.2)

Increase / (decrease) in accounts payable 15,595.0 36,950.0 23,842.5 36,532.5 48,193.8 53,201.7 70,314.9

Increase / (decrease) in accrued liabilities 39,535.0 84,475.0 28,121.8 60,887.5 80,323.0 88,669.6 117,191.4

Increase / (decrease) in Deferred Revenue 72,296.2 148,836.0 196,345.2 216,747.9 286,467.9

Change in w orking capital 9,396.0 47,135.0 52,876.8 129,741.3 144,437.1 242,073.7 244,411.8

Cash flow from operating activities 54,846.0 133,424.0 232,543.8 454,340.3 698,194.9 1,050,166.0 1,385,565.5

Funds From Investing Activities

Acquisitions (4,467.0) (7,404.0)

Net (increase) decrease in Investments - (239,419.0) (243,576.3) (10,145.3) (141,090.0) (70,390.0) (19,404.6)

(increase) decrease in restricted cash and deposits (1,140.0) (2,681.0)

Increase/Decrease to PP&E (50,026.0) (88,978.0) (65,556.4) (95,154.3) (121,587.4) (133,694.9) (134,971.6)

Cash flow from investing activities (55,633.0) (338,482.0) (309,132.7) (105,299.7) (262,677.4) (204,084.9) (154,376.3)

Cash available for principal debt service after paying interest (787.0) (205,058.0) (76,588.9) 349,040.6 435,517.6 846,081.1 1,231,189.2

Funds From Financing Activities

Issuance (purchase) of Equity Shares 910.0 439,627.0

Issuance (repayment) of Stock Options 3,590.0 12,882.0

Repurchase of common stock (175.0) (44.0)

Cash flow from financing activities 4,325.0 452,465.0 - - - - -

Effect of exchange rate changes (73.0) (1,310.0)

Beginning cash balance 89,979.0 93,444.0 339,541.0 262,952.1 611,992.8 1,047,510.4 1,893,591.5

Change in cash & equivalents 3,465.0 246,097.0 (76,588.9) 349,040.6 435,517.6 846,081.1 1,231,189.2

Ending cash balance 93,444.0 339,541.0 262,952.1 611,992.8 1,047,510.4 1,893,591.5 3,124,780.7

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Forecasted Balance Sheet

LinkedIn has not recognized any impairment of goodwill in past many quarters even when it has been consistently acquiring smaller companies. In 2012, 78% of the transaction value was recognized as Goodwill. Taking conservative estimates, we believe that there can be some impairment (20% yearly) of goodwill in the coming years.

As a result of its IPO in 2011, LinkedIn currently has high level of cash and cash equivalents. we estimate this to go down in the future. In past some quarters, this has already shown a downward trend as a result of a series of acquisitions.

Sensitivity Analysis

A sensitivity analysis on the average price given by Terminal Growth Rate based target price and EV/EBITDA exit multiple based target price produces following results.

Disclaimer

Information used in this report and underlying analysis is public information and is gathered from sources like Bloomberg, Google Finance, Thomson Reuters’ Investext, EDGAR, Company websites etc. we do not hold any securities related to the companies mentioned in this report.

Balance Sheet Statement ------- Actuals ------- ---------------------------- Forecast ------------------------------------

Projected Fiscal Years Ending May 31

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Assets

Cash & equivalents 92,951.0 339,048.0 262,952.1 611,992.8 1,047,510.4 1,893,591.5 3,124,780.7

Short Term Investments - 238,456.0 482,032.3 492,177.6 633,267.6 703,657.6 723,062.2

Accounts receivable 58,263.0 111,372.0 163,891.0 246,088.8 379,960.5 457,377.4 626,653.9

Deffered Commisions 8,684.0 13,594.0 17,353.2 29,530.7 43,062.2 59,810.9 77,126.6

Other current assets and prepaid expenses 12,308.0 23,457.0 38,562.6 60,701.9 93,723.6 116,103.5 159,073.7

Total current assets 172,206.0 725,927.0 964,791.1 1,440,491.7 2,197,524.3 3,230,540.8 4,710,697.1

Property Plant and Equipment

Net PP&E 56,743.0 114,850.0 180,406.4 275,560.7 397,148.1 530,843.0 665,814.7

Net goodw ill - 12,249.0 115,501.0 92,400.8 73,920.6 59,136.5 47,309.2

Intangible Assets 5,232.0 8,095.0 35,841.6 41,217.8 47,400.5 54,510.6 62,687.2

Other non-current assets 4,007.0 12,576.0 31,440.0 62,880.0 106,896.0 160,344.0 240,516.0

Total assets 238,188.0 873,697.0 1,327,980.1 1,912,551.1 2,822,889.5 4,035,375.0 5,727,024.2

Liabilities & Shareholders Equity

Accounts payable 12,886.0 28,217.0 52,059.5 88,592.0 136,785.8 189,987.5 260,302.4

Accrued Liabilities 27,601.0 58,644.0 86,765.8 147,653.3 227,976.3 316,645.9 433,837.3

Deferred Revenue 64,985.0 139,798.0 212,094.2 360,930.2 557,275.5 774,023.3 1,060,491.2

Short term debt - - - - - - -

Total current liabilities 105,472.0 226,659.0 350,919.5 597,175.5 922,037.6 1,280,656.8 1,754,631.0

Long-term debt/liabilities - - - - - - -

Deferred Tax Liabilities 6,625.0 18,551.0 50,087.7 100,175.4 170,298.2 255,447.3 383,170.9

Other non-current liabilities 1,861.0 3,508.0 21,048.0 42,096.0 71,563.2 107,344.8 161,017.2

Total Liabilities 113,958.0 248,718.0 422,055.2 739,446.9 1,163,899.0 1,643,448.8 2,298,819.1

Total common equity 4.0 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

Additional paid-in capital 25,074.0 617,629.0 884,602.7 1,080,247.3 1,375,923.9 1,776,008.7 2,307,161.0

Retained earnings (4,675.0) 7,340.0 21,311.2 92,845.9 283,055.7 615,906.5 1,121,033.1

Other equity 103,827.0 - - - - - -

Total Shareholders' Equity 124,230.0 624,979.0 905,924.9 1,173,104.2 1,658,990.6 2,391,926.1 3,428,205.1

Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity 238,188.0 873,697.0 1,327,980.1 1,912,551.1 2,822,889.5 4,035,375.0 5,727,024.2

EV/ EBITDA for Terminal Value

16.0x 16.5x 17.1x 17.5x 18.0x

2.50% 119.66 121.47 123.64 125.08 126.89

2.75% 122.49 124.29 126.46 127.90 129.71

3.00% 125.67 127.47 129.64 131.08 132.89

3.25% 129.28 131.09 133.26 134.70 136.51

3.50% 133.42 135.22 137.39 138.83 140.64 Term

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