Lennaert Speijker & Sybert Stroeve

FAA/EUROCONTROL/SESAR Technical interchange meeting on unmanned aerial systems and urban air mobility – 12 November 2020

Proactive and reactive safety analysis of drone operations

Lennaert Speijker & Sybert Stroeve

© Royal NLR 2020 – All Rights Reserved 2

Safety of UAS/drones and U-Space

• Foundations for safe drone operations in European Open & Specificcategory through EU regulation 2019/645, 2019/647 en 2020/639

• Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) methodology available to support operators in obtaining approval for Specific drone operations

• U-Space as enabler for drone operations in the Certified category

• CORUS proposes two safety related U-Space services

– Risk analysis assistance (pre-flight)

– Incident/accident reporting (post flight)

➢ There is a need for proactive (pre-flight) and reactive (post-flight) analysis of the operational usage and safety of drone operations


D(emo)-CRAT project

• Demonstrator Drone Collision Risk Assessment Tool

• Proactive risk analysis of drone traffic collision risk

• Project by NLR and everis for EUROCONTROL

Objectives

• To develop an agent-based model for risk assessment– Air taxi and drone operations in an urban environment

– Representation of hazards and performance variability

• Advanced Monte Carlo (MC) simulation– Assess risk up to the level of collisions

• Implementation/testing of demonstrator tool

• Demonstration for a use case


Use case in urban area south of Paris

Areas

• Aerodromes 1, 5 (Toussus-le-Noble, Brétigny)

• Urban areas 2, 3, 4 (Orsay, Monthléry, Brétigny)

Missions

A. VTOL air taxies between urban areas

B. VTOL surveillance & loitering in urban areas

C. Fixed-wing drones between airports

D. Fixed-wing drones crossing overall area


Agent-based model

UnmannedAircraft-1

UnmannedAircraft-i

UnmannedAircraft-N

Customers

Environment &Airspace design

Weather & Meteo Service

UAOperators

Pilots in Command

GNSS

C2 LinkSystems

Traffic Displays & Alerting

Flightplans

Missiondemand

Weatherforecast

Weather

DAAalerts &

guidance

Missioncontrol

Surveillance/ DAA data

Airspacelayout

Dependent Surveillance

• Customer demand

– Poisson processes

– Random mission-dependent points

• Airspace design

– Free flight

– Mission-dependent altitude layers

– Mission and heading-dependent altitude layers

• Flight planning by operators

– Flight level

• Mission control by PIC


Aircraft pair

Ownship State Estimation

Ownship State Estimation

Othership State Data

Othership State Data

DAA SystemDAIDALUS (tuned)

DAA SystemDAIDALUS (tuned)

Flight Management

System

Flight Management

System

C2 Link C2 Link

Traffic Display & Alerting

Traffic Display & Alerting

Pilot inCommand UA-i

Pilot inCommand UA-j

Flight Performance

Flight Performance

Unmanned Aircraft-i Unmanned Aircraft-j

Mission controlDAA data DAA dataMission control

• DAIDALUS by NASA

– DAA reference system

– Rule-based

– Parameters will be tuned

• Ownship state data

– Pressure altitude & rate

– GNSS-based horizontal position & speed

• Othership state via ADS-B

• Response to DAA alerts always via PIC and C2 link


Modelling of variability and failures modes

Normal variability• Wind speed

• Customer demand

• Errors in altitude and vertical speed measurement

• Errors in GNSS-based horizontal position and speed estimates

• Delay in ADS-B transmission

• Delay in C2 link transmission

• Delay in response to DAA alert by PIC

• Rates of turn and climb/descent by PIC in DAA response

• Rates of climb, descent, turn, acceleration, deceleration, cruise speed during nominal flight

Failure modes• Adverse weather not predicted

• Wrong altitude in flight planning

• Engines failure

• Reduced accuracy of pressure altimetry

• GNSS-based estimation is not working (aircraft system or in whole region)

• Reduced accuracy of GNSS-based estimation (single aircraft or whole region)

• C2 link not working (aircraft system, RPS, or whole region)

• ADS-B system of aircraft is not working

• DAA system of aircraft is not working

• No response to DAA alert by PIC


Advanced Monte Carlo (MC) simulation

• Need to assess low probabilities requires MC simulation acceleration methods

– Interacting Particle Systems (IPS) MC simulation

– Risk decomposition for rare global failures

Risk curve: miss distance probability IPS MC simulation

A1

A2

A3

A4

A5

A6

A4

A4

A4

A4

A4

A4

B1

B6

B2

B3

B4

B5

First miss distance boundary

Second miss distance boundary

B2

B2

B2

B2

B2

B2

Miss distance

Large Small1d 2d

d


UAS operational and safety data

• Drone Operational data Repository for SafEtY (DORSEY)

• Proactive and reactive analysis of UAS operational and safety data

• Project by NLR for Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure & Water Management

Objectives

• Develop method and associated tool for the systematic collection and analysis of operational and safety data of UAS operations

– Provide insight into actual operations with UAS/drones

– Provide service providers with data based safety management support

– Provide support for the risk assessment process for new operations

– Assist States with the implementation of UAS regulation

10

Concept for data collection and analysis

© Royal NLR 2020 - All Rights Reserved


Risk analysis assistance (pre-flight)

• CORUS proposes development of U-Space service to support drone operators with the SORA process

• Information expected to be used

– Draft operation plan

– Drone AIM service

– Environment service

– Traffic information

• Approach can be extended to cover analysis of drone operations in Certified category (in U-Space and/or for Urban Air Mobility (UAM))


Incident/accident reporting (post-flight)

• Incident/accident reporting arranged by ICAO Annex 13 and in Europe by EU Regulations 376/2014 and 2015/1018

• ICAO Annex 13: for investigation of UAS occurrences, only aircraft with design and/ or operational approval are considered

• In Europe: consider fatal/serious injury to person(s) and/or occurrences/information also involving aircraft other than UAS

• Existing reporting systems (e.g. ECCAIR) not yet tailored for occurrences involving UAS

Example Event Types

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Summary

Proactive and reactive safety analysis of drone operations

Demonstrator tool for drone collision risk assessment: D(emo)-CRAT

Recommendations for full-scale drone collision risk assessment tool: D-CRAT

New approach for UAS data collection & analysis: DORSEY

Methods and tools for e.g. development of U-Space safety services

UAS operational/safety data also usable for National Safety Analysis

D(emo)-CRAT and DORSEY are still being further developed & validated

© Royal NLR 2020 – All Rights Reserved

NLR AmsterdamAnthony Fokkerweg 21059 CM AmsterdamThe Netherlands

p ) +31 88 511 31 13 e ) [email protected] i ) www.nlr.org

NLR MarknesseVoorsterweg 318316 PR MarknesseThe Netherlands

p ) +31 88 511 44 44 e ) [email protected] i ) www.nlr.org

Fully engagedRoyal Netherlands Aerospace Centre

Lennaert Speijker & Sybert Stroeve

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