Legacy 2025: The Transportation Plan for the St. Louis Region

8/6/2019 Legacy 2025: The Transportation Plan for the St. Louis Region

1/112

The Transportation Plan for the Gateway Region i

L e g a c y 2 0 2 5

The Transportation Plan

for the Gateway Region

East-West Gateway Coordinating CouncilS t . L o u i s ( M i s s o u r i - I l l i n o i s ) R e g i o n

March 2002


2/112

The preparation of this document was financed in part by the

United States Department of Transportation through theFederal Transit Administration, Federal HighwayAdministration, the Missouri Department of Transportation,and the Illinois Department of Transportation. The contents

of this report reflect the opinions, findings and conclusions ofthe author. The contents do not necessarily reflect the offi-cial views or policies of the funding agencies.

ii Legacy 2025


3/112

TABLEof Contents

SECTION IBackground 1

SECTION IIThe St. Louis Region 5

SECTION IIIThe Transportation System 27

SECTION IVFocus Areas for Problem-Solving 33

SECTION VTransportation Investment Plan 89

SECTION VIAir Quality Conformity 105

The Transportation Plan for the Gateway Region iii


4/112

iv Legacy 2025


5/112

The Transportation Plan for the Gateway Region 1

Legacy 2025 is the second update of the metropolitan trans-portation plan that was initially developed in 1992-93 andformally adopted a year later by the chief local elected offi-cials of the bi-state St. Louis region. It is a 20-year plan thatissued a challenge to anticipate and act upon a future aboutwhich we have some assumptions, some uncertainties, andmany high expectations.Legacy 2025 is about the next gener-ation of our region and our transportation system. We have

made some progress in meeting the challenges of that initialplan, and we know a lot more about each of the transporta-tion issues we will face in the next generation. This metro-politan transportation plan is both a guide to a deeper under-standing of the regions transportation system and a blue-print of its future.

The Board of Directors of the East-West GatewayCoordinating Council is the areas federally-designated

Metropolitan Planning Organization. As the regions MPO,the Board has the responsibility and the authority to overseethe development of short- and long-range transportationplans for the region, and to select the capital projects andoperational initiatives that will qualify for federal funds tobest carry out the goals and objectives of these plans. TheMPO serves in this capacity through certification from theU.S. Department of Transportation and under joint agree-

ments from the states of Missouri and Illinois and the eightcounties of the region. Their 1994 plan, Transportation

Redefined, established the cooperative process and theinvestment framework that guide the way in which decisionsare made about the regions surface transportation system.

Transportation Redefined represented a significant and inten-tional departure from past practice (hence its name). Theneed for change was encouraged at least in part by three dis-

SECTION IBackground

Transportation Planning and Public Policy


6/112

tinct but complementary events and trends. The first of thesewas the completion of the Interstate Highway System, whichhad been 40 years in the making, accompanied by a shift infederal focus from new construction to the maintenance andoperation of the nations existing vast transportation infra-

structure. A second event was the passage of an ambitiousnew federal transportation act in 1991 that went well beyondthe traditional public policy focus on bricks and mortar todescribe a seamless, multimodal transportation system driv-en by a vision of national economic prosperity, communityvitality, and environmental responsibility. Transportation was

no longer the end product of the investment planrather itwas the means to a much larger end, a 21st Century qualitycommunity life.1

A third factor, fiscal constraint, emanates from principles of

responsible governance, strengthened by the requirements ofthe 1991 Federal act. For the first time, metropolitan areasand states were not permitted to list projects in the long- orshort-range plan for which they could not reasonablydemonstrate future sources of revenue. This last factorforced a new level of discipline into the protocols and prac-tices of transportation planning. It also heightened the sense

of urgency and, to some degree, tension about the trade-offsinherent in decisions required to balance the transportationportfolio appropriately between modes and among differentparts of the region and to spread the costs and benefits equi-tably among different population groups.

Regional Goals

Legacy 2025 stretches the regions vision over a 20-year hori-zon and requires policymakers, citizens, planners, and proj-ect sponsors to forecast future realities and anticipate the

attributes of the transportation system that will be needed tosupport quality of life goals two decades hence. The adoptedgoals that focus St. Louis decision-makers on the year 2025follow. They were drafted by a series of citizen groups in1994, revised and reaffirmed as part of the communityengagement process in 1998.

A strong position in the national and global marketplace,ensured through strategic economic development, competi-tive employment opportunities, a well-trained workforce,and responsible asset management

A sustainable and growing economy grounded in the wiseand coordinated use of physical, environmental, social, andagricultural resources

A clean and healthy environment

Safe neighborhoods, communities, and thoroughfares

Resources for learning and personal development, accessi-ble at every point of the life cycle

Varied and valued outlets for recreation and culturalexpression

A growing, diversified population, with equity, choice, andopportunity for all citizens

Efficient and balanced patterns of growth and developmentthat respect the land, the citizenry, the history, and thestrategic location of the St. Louis region.

2 Legacy 2025

1 Many of the principles and provisions of the Intermodal Surface TransportationEfficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) were continued in 1998 with re-authorizing legislation,the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21).


7/112

The Framework for Decision-Making

The 20-year plan guides the investment of more than $14.6billion in public funds, of which approximately 80 percent arefederal dollars and 20 percent are from state and/or local

government resources. Planners and decision-makers directthe expenditure of these funds toward addressing the adopt-ed goals and objectives by using six priority focus areas anda weighted cost-benefit analysis to evaluate and rank everyproject that is submitted for funding consideration.

The actual expenditure of funds is managed in five-yearcycles, the time frame of the Transportation ImprovementProgram (TIP), which is the near-term implementation ele-ment ofLegacy 2025. The current TIP covers fiscal years 2002-2006 and includes $3.4 billion in federal, state, and local

funds. The exact amount of funding available for any TIP iscontingent on a variety of complex economic, political, andother factors that affect tax revenues and expenditures andthat influence the apportionment of dollars to states, the allo-cation of funds to metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas,and availability of resources that can be used as local match.

Responsible planning practices, and Federal law, require thattransportation investment decisions align with the goals andobjectives that the regions policymakers have adopted; that theresults, overall, will not compromise the quality of the air ourcitizens breathe; and that the regions governments can rea-sonably expect to be able to pay for the projects and strategiesthat are identified in the plan for implementation. To accom-plish this, the Council uses a multi-step, integrated decision-making process in which the procedures for planning and thecriteria for selecting projects all link back to the policies andgoals set out in the 20-year regional plan. The process also

allows the Council and its partners to monitor progress in theimplementation of scheduled projects and to track changes in

specific outcome measures, thereby gauging the effectivenessofLegacy 2025s strategies in addressing quality of life goals.

An additional planning principle is for all those who have astake in the transportation systemcommuters, community

residents, business representatives, students, transit riders,cyclists and pedestrians, truck drivers, public safety officials,consumers of health and human services, and othersto beinvolved in significant and ongoing ways in the processthrough which transportation problems are identified and solu-tions developed. A hallmark of the 1994 Transportation

Redefined was its active approach to community outreach andcitizen engagement. In the eight years since the plan wasadopted, thousands of individuals and groups have been a partof committees, surveys, focus groups, task forces, hearings,media presentations, consultations, and joint-planning activi-

ties resulting in decisions about community and regional trans-portation improvements.

In light of the stakes involved and despite the repeated urging ofcitizen activists and planners alike, however, much remains tobe done to ensure that more of those St. Louis area residentswho have something to say about the transportation system do,

in fact, take advantage of the opportunity to be heard. A relatedchallenge is to assure that opinions are balanced by fact andthat no single point of view or interest is given undue weight.

To execute their responsibility and authority, the MPO Boardmeets monthly to discuss and deliberate transportation andrelated matters, to hear from advisory groups and commit-tees, and to make interim and final decisions on strategy andinvestments. The plan is ever a work-in-progress. As thelandscape of the region shifts and develops, as resources ebband flow, as needs change and opportunities arise, the Board

and staff are attentive and attempt to be responsive on a reg-ular basis.



8/112

Progress, 1994-2001

Progress in moving the transportation system forward to 21stCentury goals comes slowly: the implementation of the trans-portation plan is a complex and tedious process of managing

hundreds of discrete capital projects that take years in theplanning, engineering, and construction phases. Nonetheless,the regions investment patterns have evolved significantlyover the past eight years, largely because of the priorities andprocesses identified in the 1994 plan.

Progress has been the most notable with:

the now-customary use of a comprehensive, collaborative,and open process to ensure that all alternatives (includingthe option of doing nothing) are fully evaluated before any

major transportation investments are made

stopping the pattern of deterioration of existing transporta-tion assets

greater accountability for the timely expenditure of federalfunds through the adoption and implementation of a policyon Reasonable Progress requiring project sponsors toplan, design, and build projects in a timely fashion

the use of an expanded set of measures that gauge the per-

formance of the transportation system in the context ofeconomic, community, and environmental objectives

a growing focus on equity and inclusion among groups and

communities that have not been historically well-represent-ed in the decision-making process and/or who have notshared proportionately in the benefits of transportationinvestments through legislative and programmatic propos-als, community forums, and special interest caucuses.

Challenges in 2002 and Beyond

Planners and decision-makers have also begun work in someareas in which much is yet to be learned, including:

efforts to link the diverse elements of the multi-modal sys-tem and to manage operations better in order to improveboth the efficiency and safety of travel

initiatives to accommodate the needs of a changing popu-lation that includes higher labor force participation ratesthan ever before, greater racial and ethnic diversity,increasing numbers of persons with disabilities, and anaging population

public/private strategic planning to meet the needs of indi-

vidual firms and industrial clusters that are increasinglydependent on inexpensive, just-in-time delivery

development of computer-aided methodologies to quantifyand understand connections between transportation invest-ments and land use

more aggressive use of new technologies to solve trans-portation problems and improve access and safety

heightened awareness of our vulnerability to natural andman-made disasters that shake the foundation of our com-

munity and compromise the viability of our infrastructure.

These and other challenges are discussed in more detail inthe pages that follow.

4 Legacy 2025


9/112

Each day, the life of every man, woman, and child in the St.Louis region is affected in some way by the regions transporta-tion system. Auto drivers and their passengers, transit riders,bicyclists, tourists, truck drivers, pedestrians: anyone who wantsto go anywhere for any reason finds his or her opportunitiesdictated to some degree by how well the transportation systemworks. ...

By and large, transportation is not front page news. Indeed, awell-functioning transportation system is one that goes largelyunnoticed. Only when problems occuran especially congested

morning commute, a bus that fails to show, a shipment thatarrives late, a fatal crash, a flooded section of state highwaydo

people get a glimpse of the pervasive impact that transportationhas on their lives. But contrary to popular perceptions, thecumulative weight of transportations impact on the region is

mostly a result of the usualnot the unusualevents that takeplace on the system, 24 hours each day, 365 days a year.

Transportation Redefined1

SECTION IIThe St. Louis Region


1 East-West Gateway Coordinating Council. Transportation Redefined:A Plan for theRegions Future . 1994. Introduction, pages 1-3.


10/112

Each Day: 2002

SunriseAt the 7-Eleven in OFallon, Missouri and theMcDonalds in Waterloo, Illinois, the parking lots

and the check-out lines are already backed upwith construction workers who have driven infrom St. Charles and St. Louis, Fenton andFlorissant, Warrenton and Jerseyville, Granite Cityand Cahokia, and more. Theyre buying coffeeand other rations for a full days work. OFallon

and Waterloo are only two of 40 communitieslocated at or beyond the Interstate 255 /270 belt-way whose population increased by more than 25percent between 1990 and 2000 (See Figure II-1).As Table II-1 shows, eight of these communities

(OFallon included) more than doubled in popula-tion during that time period.

St. Louis has one of the most affordable hous-ing markets in the country, and, in these fast-growing communities, new homes are defi-nitely a hot commodity. Burgeoning household

growth keeps carpenters, painters, laborers,masons, electricians, plumbers and pipefitters,and other craftsmen in high demand. Even asa subdivision is still underway, these and otherworkers in the skilled trades often continuework on water, sewer, transportation, and other public infra-structure projects needed to support residential growth.These jobs are highly sought after: apprentice carpenters typ-ically start at work $12.50 per hour on residential construc-tion jobsmore than twice the minimum wage. Experiencedunion journeymen earn at least $25 an hour36 percent

more than the average wage of $15.90 for all industries inthe area.

St. Louis is growing more slowly than many of its peer met-ropolitan areas, but jobs in the construction sector (whichincludes new construction, rehab, and demolition work) areexpected to increase by a steady two percent each yearthrough 2008. Because the average age of constructionworkers in the region is 50 years, forecasts suggest that thenumber of new workers needed to replace retiring workerscould actually be twice the requirements due to industry

6 Legacy 2025

Municipality Percent

Dardenne Prairie 496.5Cottleville 325.6

Weldon Spring 258.5Manchester 193.1Shiloh 188.4

OFallon, MO 164.9Foristell 106.3Miramiguoa Park 101.6

Wildwood 96.4Hazelwood 68.9

Sunset Hills 68.2Flint Hill 65.5Eureka 63.9

Maryviille 62.1

Valley Park 56.5Waterloo 51.4Byrnes Mill 50.6

Wentzville 48.6Edwardsville 47.4Ballwin 46.1

Source: United States Census Bureau

Municipality Percent

St. Paul 45.4Columbia 43.0

Smithton 41.7Pontoon Beach 40.0Troy 37.6

Creve Coeur 34.3Glen Carbon 34.1Madison 33.3

Pevely 33.1Gerald 31.9

Fenton 30.3Swansea 29.0Maeystown 27.6

Ellisville 26.7

St. Peters 26.4Sauget 26.4OFallon, IL 36.4

Pacific 26.3Lake Saint Louis 34.9Union 25.2

Table II-1

Municipalities With Population Growth Exceeding 25 Percent1990-2000


11/112



12/112

growth alone.2 Private construction contributes more than $8billion to the areas gross metropolitan product each yearranking the St. Louis region 22nd in the per capita value ofconstruction among 35 major metropolitan areas. Surfacetransportation projects add nearly $700 million to that amount.

7:30 amAt the Triple Crown Services Intermodal Facility on CarrieAvenue in north St. Louis, the first of todays 160 roadrailersare being disconnected from their tractors and coupled to railwheelsets, linked to waiting freight trains.3 Like lifesize toys,

big trucks are changed into railcars with just a bit of heavylifting. They were loaded with electronics, precision instru-ments, motorized vehicles, and other products at the point ofmanufacture. After changing wheels in St. Louis, theyre nowbound for Tennessee, Texas, Kentucky, Indiana, Arkansas,

Kansas, Georgia, and Iowa on the Norfolk Southern andConrail Railroads.4

Located on a single acre of land and with only 115 parkingplaces for incoming and outbound trucks, the Triple CrownServices facility is the smallest intermodal freight transfercenter in the region. But it is the only one with the capacity

to accommodate roadrailers. The other six facilities use sidelifts and overhead cranes to move containers of goods fromtrucks to rail cars and from rail to trucks. They range in sizefrom 13 to 105 acres. Combined, they handle more than732,000 containers of freight every year.

The activity at the intermodal transfer centers of the region isan important component of the flow of more than$144,393,000 in commodities every year, enabling shippersto minimize time, labor, and transport costs by using thecombination of modes best suited to the freight and the jour-

ney. It also is a largely unnoticed, and perhaps underappreci-ated, economic cluster that is uniquely suited to the regionsurban core where rivers and rail and major highways con-verge. The seven surface transfer centers in St. Louis, EastSt. Louis, Venice, Dupo and the 50 ports along the MississippiRiver are important sources of employment for residents of

these central communities (See Figure II-2 ).

9:00 amElectronic signs on the sides of the roadway have been flash-ing advance warnings all morning, but some motorists will

be caught off guard, nonetheless, as Missouri Department ofTransportation crews close lanes on selected roadways toconduct needed maintenance and repairs. From mid-morn-ing until mid-afternoon, workers with heavy equipment andbright orange flags will be filling up potholes on westboundRoute 30 in Jefferson County and Interstate 70 in St. Charles,sealing cracks in the pavement on northbound Lindbergh in

St. Louis County, reconstructing the ramp from Goodfellow towestbound I-70 in the City of St. Louis, and more. Eventhough most rush hour commuters will be unaffected, linesof midday travelers in cars and cabs and delivery vans willslow to a snails pace around the work zones all day.

With the exception of rush hour bottlenecks like theMississippi and Missouri River crossings, much of the day-to-day slow-down in 2002 traffic is caused by accidents andstalled vehicles and by lane closures and reduced-speedzones associated with reconstruction and repair. Thirty-five

percent of the Interstate highway system and 75 percent ofthe principal arterials in the St. Louis region are classified as

8 Legacy 2025

2 Missouri Department of Economic Development. St. Louis MO-IL MSA: 1998-2008Industry Projections.

3 A roadrailer is a standard trailer that can be directly coupled to a rail wheelset, elimi-nating the need to load the trailer onto the flat car of a train or packing the goods intoa portable container.

4 Conrail was purchased by the CSX and Norfolk Southern Railroads in 1997, but con-tinues to operate under its former name.


13/112



14/112

being in poor condition. The task of bringing these facilitiesinto good shape will keep highway crews at work for sometime in the future. The Missouri Department of EconomicDevelopment estimates that there will be 2,046 jobs in high-way and street construction in the bi-state region by 2008

an increase of nearly 16 percent from 1998.5

Construction zones produce as much frustration as they dojobs, unfortunately. And, although St. Louisans like to thinkof themselves as courteous, some of the frustration isexpressed openly by drivers and passengers who lose first

their patience and then their composure and endanger them-selves and others around them. The AAA Foundation forTraffic Safety reports in a 1997 study that incidents of aggres-sive driving increased by seven percent every year between1990 and 1996. The research, which was based on more than

10,000 reported incidents, concludes that most violent trafficdisputes appear to be triggered by relatively trivial events:arguments over parking spaces, cutting off other drivers,minor collisions, obscene gestures, loud music, slow driving,tailgating, and similar behaviors. The disputes, they say, arerarely the result of one event, but an accumulation of stres-sors that add up to the last straw.6 In the seven years of the

study period, a total of 12,610 people were injured and 218were killed as a result of aggressive driving incidents.

10:30 amTwo retirees pull out of the parking lot of the PresbyterianChurch on the corner of 4th and St. Louis Streets in Pacific,Missouri. She turns left and he turns right; they are in sepa-rate carsboth back seats piled with packaged meals for 10

elderly persons who are home-bound. These volunteer driversknow each of their destinationsby first name, and every stopstarts with an upbeat howre you

doing today?, some pleasantgossip from along the route, anda description of what is in thepackage (always a hot lunch fortoday and a ready-to-eat break-fast for tomorrow morning). Each

driver completes a 40-mile routebefore they meet again at theSenior Citizens Center in Eureka.He is there by 12:30, but she (wholoves to chit-chat) takes nearly an

hour longer.

These two individuals are amongthe 35 volunteers who serve morethan 220 older residents everyday as part of the Route 66Meals-on-Wheels program, the

largest in the state of Missouri,which serves Franklin, Jefferson,and parts of St. Louis County.They personify one of the mostimportant demographic trends inthe region todaythe aging of thepopulation. In 2000, there weremore than 335,000 persons overthe age of 65 in the St. Louis met-ropolitan area. With 13 percent ofits residents in this age group, St. Louis ranks seventh high-

est out of 35 peer metropolitan areas in concentration ofolder adults (See Figure II-3).

10 Legacy 2025

5 Missouri Department of Economic Development. St. Louis MO-IL MSA, 1998-2008Industry Projections.

6 National Conference of State Legislatures. Aggressive Driving. January 2000.www.ncsl.org

1 Pittsburgh 17.7

2 Cleveland 14.5

3 Philadelphia 13.34 Miami 13.3

5 San Francisco 13.1

6 Boston 13.1

7 St. Louis 12.9

8 Milwaukee 12.6

9 Louisville 12.6

10 Detroit 12.1

11 Baltimore 12.0

12 New York 11.9

13 Cincinnati 11.9

14 Phoenix 11.9

15 Kansas City 11.4

16 Oklahoma City 11.4

17 San Diego 11.2

Average 11.0

18 Indianapolis 10.9

19 Chicago 10.7

20 San Antonio 10.7

21 Portland 10.7

22 Seattle 10.2

23 Charlotte 10.2

24 Columbus 10.0

25 Nashville 10.0

26 Memphis 10.0

27 Los Angeles 9.7

28 Minneapolis 9.6

29 Washington DC 9.1

30 Denver 9.0

31 Salt Lake City 8.3

32 Dallas 7.7

33 Atlanta 7.634 Houston 7.4

35 Austin 7.3

POPULATION AGED 65AND OLDER

Figure II-3

Percent population 65 years or

older, 2000


15/112

Younger folk tend to group them together and call them sen-iors or elders, but such generalizations are misleading. Olderadults are nearly as diverse as the rest of the adult popula-tion in terms of race, ethnicity, gender, and educationalachievement, and getting more so. They also differ markedly

in terms of age and physical ability. Slightly more than half(52 percent) of those over 65 can be characterized as young-old (aged 65-74, as are the Route 66 volunteers) and,despite the prevalence of many common chronic diseasessuch as arthritis and hypertension, they are by and large verymobile and active. Seventy-six percent of white men and 62

percent of African-American men in this age group reportedthat their health is excellent or good in a 1996 nationalsurvey, as did 78 percent of white and 59 percent of African-American women. Apparently, 75 to 84 year-olds, who makeup 35 percent of older St. Louisans, feel positively about their

health in similar proportions (See Figure II-4).

Among those aged 85 and older, who gerontologists refer toas the old-old, two-thirds of whites and approximately halfof all African-Americans surveyed said that their health isexcellent or good.7 Nonetheless, it is for this age group thataccess to nutrition, exercise, health care, and social opportu-

nities can become a particular problem. Currently, there aremore than 42,000 St. Louis area residents who are older than84. They are the fastest growing of the regions age cohorts.

12 noonThere is a 10-minute wait for tables at the Pasta House

Restaurant on East Washington in downtown Belleville. Thelunch special is good, but that is not necessarily what isdrawing the crowd; its the sheer mass of government offi-cials, professionals, service workers, jurors, citizens, and oth-ers who jam Public Square every work day and who have

spilled over and filled every possible local eatery. They arelined up at Fischers, the St. Louis Bread Company, and atBob & Susans around the corner.

Belleville is one of eight county seats in the region that arethe hubs of government, legal, and associated financial activ-ity in the metropolitan area. The city is home to 42,000 resi-

dents, but 8-to-5 each weekday, it swells to nearly half againthat size, as workers come from around the region to fillmore than 18,600 jobs and as county citizens come forwardto access the services and responsibilities of local govern-ment.8 They travel by car, by vanpool, by bus, and byMetroLink. They populate government offices, public serviceagencies, legal firms, courtrooms, financial institutions, andother centers of public life that bound the circular square inthe center of downtown. They perform support functions in


7 National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging. Older Americans 2000: KeyIndicators of Well-Being. Available at www.aoa.dhhs.gov8 U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Local Area Statistics. December2001.


16/112

supplier firms and back-office operations located close by.They shop in Bellevilles stores, tally in its bars and restau-rants, use public services and conveniences, and make a siz-able contribution to the local tax base.

As Table II-2 shows, government is big business in the St.Louis metropolitan area, with more than 160,200 jobs inDecember 2001. Of total government employees in the St.Louis region, 17 percent (26,900) work for the federal gov-ernment and the remaining 83 percent (133,300) are state

and local employees.9 The St. Louis region has 771 units oflocal governmentmore per capita than any other peerregion except Pittsburgh.10

The Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) sector compris-es an additional 84,800 jobs. Taken together, government andfinance (the cornerstones of our county seats) account fornearly one of every five (18 percent) of the regions jobs.

1:00 pmAt the General Motors plant in Wentzville, the bay opens for

a tractor trailer filled with automobile seats and seat belts.There are 80 of thema variety of fabric types and colors

arranged in the exact sequence in which they are needed forthe partially-assembled Chevrolet Express vans now on theline. The production workers are ready, as are the robotswho will assist with the task at hand. Ready, but not waiting,because the seats have arrived at precisely the moment they

are needed. It is no accident of good fortunethe order forthese seats was broadcast from the GM central office to thesupplier across the street only three hours ago. Installationwill start within the hour.

This is what industry insiders call just-in-time delivery, and

it has swept the manufacturing field. Instead of a one- totwo-week inventory of parts, General Motors now keepsmaterials on hand for no longer than four hours. Suppliersand shippers receive a production schedule and an order forparts from the central office anywhere between a few hours

and a week in advance (depending on the parts and the sup-plier), which allows them to prepare to respond just-in-time.Shippers use rail lines for the delivery of larger components,such as vehicle frames, but the majority of parts come overthe road. When everything goes smoothly, this processensures a continuous flow of goods without any lag time dueto lack of materials. GM has been working this way for near-

ly ten years because it reduces inventory, increases theamount of plant space available for actual production, keepsthe plant clean, andmost importantlysaves money.

Manufacturing and warehousing are not what they used tobe. Computer technologies have modernized and streamlinednearly all aspects of the production process, including thedesign, development, and delivery of parts, as well as theassembly of components, and the distribution of finished

12 Legacy 2025

Table II-2Industry in the St. Louis Region (December 2001)

Industry Employment (1000s)

Services 432.7

Trade (wholesale and retail) 318.3Manufacturing 175.4Government 160.2

Transportation and Public Utilities 88.0Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 84.8Construction and Mining 79.0

Total 1338.4

9 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

10 Where We Stand: The Strategic Assessment of the St. Louis Region. East-West GatewayCoordinating Council. 1999. Page 29.


17/112



18/112

goods. The value of economic output from the manufacturingsector has increased during the past several decades, but thenumber of workers required to produce this output is shrink-ing. To succeed in this competitive environment, workersmust have a far greater command of computer and other

technical skills than they did when the GM plant was firstbuilt in 1981. At that time, approximately half of all manufac-turing jobs required skilled labor. In 2000, 70 percent wereskilled, and this percentage is expected to increase to 85 by2005.11

2:00 pmA young mother in the Hyde Park neighborhood of St. Louisfastens her toddler in a car seat in the back of her 1992 FordEscort, cranks up the engine, and heads for a childcare cen-ter half a mile away. She is on the first leg of a daily journey

from home to childcare to work on the second shift at SSMRehab on the campus of St. Marys Health Center inRichmond Heights.

This woman is one member of a very visible modern majori-tythe 61 percent of all mothers with children under the ageof six who work full-time. 12 She is also one of 50,000 single

heads-of-household who left the welfare rolls of the St.Louis region between 1993 and 2001. Although she no longerreceives any cash public assistance, the $17,333 she earnsannually as a starting Rehab Technician is nearly $1,000 less

than the sum of her expenses for basic necessities, as isdemonstrated in Table II-3.13 She is a member of whatdemographers and sociologists refer to as the workingpoor, individuals who are barely making ends meet with the

wages they earn and whose households are especially vul-nerable to economic collapse when a family member suffersa lengthy illness, or the house needs an expensive repair, orthe car breaks down, or some other event throws the bare-bones budget out of kilter.14

Nationally, almost 60 percentof the working poor arewomen, with African-American and other minoritywomen more than twice aslikely to be poor as white

women.15 They juggle a varietyof responsibilities for familyand work, and their travel pat-terns reflect these responsibili-ties. Women make almost

two-thirds (63 percent) of alltrips to pick someone up ordrop someone off. A full 65percent of single women withchildren under the age of fiveand 53 percent of those withchildren six to 15 years of age

make daily stops on their wayto (or back from) workcompared to 33 percent of singlefathers and 20 percent of those in two-parent households.Given these statistics, it is not difficult to understand why

women in lower-income households are less likely to usetransit or other alternatives to the private automobile to com-mute to work than are men of comparable incomes.16

14 Legacy 2025

11 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. There were approximately 175,000 jobs in manufac-turing in the St. Louis metropolitan area in 2001. These represented 13 percent of theemployment base down from 34 percent in 1950.

12 Womens Labor Force Trends and Womens Transportation Issues.

13 East-West Gateway Coordinating Council. The Family Supporting Wage for the St.Louis Region. June 2000.

14 Economic Policy Institute.Hardship in America 2001.

15 U. S. Department of Labor.Futurework: Trends and Challenges for Work in the 21stCentury. Executive Summary. 1999.

Table II-3Making Ends Meet for a

Single Mother withOne Pre-School Child

Expenses

Housing 510Child Care 348

Food 249Transportation 161

Medical Care 119Miscellaneous 139Monthly Expenses 1,527

Annual Expenses 18,318

Source: East-West Gateway CoordinatingCouncil. Family-Supporting Wage for the St.Louis Region.


19/112

3:30 pmResidents of South St. Louis County will need more than goodluck to get through the traffic jam on Lindbergh Boulevard.What seems like a never-ending stream of cars is leaving the

Lindbergh High School parking lot, without even a small breakin line. Scores of additional cars are jamming the exit to thepopular overflow lot, which belongs to a large discount storenext door. School is out for the day, and there are lots of placesto go and things to do before the day is over. It is the same pic-ture on West Boulevard and Carlyle in Belleville, on Hawkins

Road in Fenton, on Clayton Road in Ballwin, and Dunn Road inHazelwood. They are headed to work, to sports activities, tofavorite hang-outs with friends, to the public library, or home.In 2000, there 188,499 teens between the ages of 15 and 19in the eight-county St. Louis. Census projections suggest that

this number will increase to about 230,000 by 2005, as thechildren of the baby boom generation approach young adult-hood.17 If national standards hold true in St. Louis (and thereare no reasons to suggest that they dont), nearly half (48.2percent) of these young people have drivers licenses. In 2000,the licensure rate ranged from less than one percent of 15

year olds to almost 75 percent of 19 year olds. 18 The picture

varies considerably by race and ethnicity. Figure II-6 depictsnational drivers license rates by race, ethnicity, and gender.Although the gap has been narrowing in recent decades,Whites still are far more likely to have drivers licenses than

are African Americans or individuals of other races or ethnic-ities.19

In some respects, teen travel patterns are remarkably similar tothat of adults. Sixteen to 20 year olds make an average of 4.6trips per day (exactly the same as 21 to 65 year-olds), but theytravel shorter distances, overall. Teenage women travel approxi-

mately 35 miles every day, while teen men travel almost 38 milesper day, on average. For many teens, access to a car is not muchof a problem: most American households have one car for everylicensed driver. The picture varies considerably by income level,as might be expected, however. One of every five low-incomehouseholds do not have a vehicle, compared to less than one

percent of those with high income. 20

4:30 pmIt is afternoon drive time on the areas AM and FM radio sta-

tions. Commuters

can take their pickbetween classicalmusic or countryor rock or newwave, small talkor the esotericallthe listening

choices of the bigcity. One thingthat is common toevery station is the

traffic report, how-ever. The latest in


18 U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. HighwayStatistics 2000. www.fhwa.dot.gov

19 U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. Travel Patternsof People of Color. 1995.

20 U.S. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration.NationwidePersonal Transportation Survey. 1995.

16 U.S. Department of Transportation.Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey. 1995

17 The baby boom generation is the term used to describe the large cohort of individ-uals born between 1946 and 1964. Their children, many of whi ch were born between1981 and 1997, are referred to as the echo boom. For more information, see East-West Gateway Coordinating Council. Gateway Trends #2: The Changing AgeComposition of the Gateway Region. June 2000.


20/112

reported mishaps and back-ups, anything unexpected isimportant news to commuters who are anxious to get homeand to truckers, bus drivers, cabbies, and other professionaldrivers who dread this, the most sluggish part of the work-day. It is little compensation that drivers stuck in slow-mov-

ing traffic may amuse themselves watching the helicopterscircle overhead to monitor and report on any noteworthyactivity. Skycam I and Skycam II, Chopper 5, SkyFox 2, andSkyZoom 4each has its own local business sponsor. Whenmotorists see them circling overhead, they know they are infor a delay worth reporting.

Congested roads are a popular source of complaint amongSt. Louisans, who place a high premium on convenience and

just-in-time access, as do other Americans in this 21stCentury world of instantaneous information, immediate grat-

ification, and fast food. In fact, however, the region is one ofthe least congested in the nation, ranking ninth best out of35 metropolitanareas in a 2001assessment.21 St.Louis is middle-of-the-road in average

travel time to workranking 16th out of35 metropolitanareas. St. Louisans

spend much less timegetting to their jobsthan do commutersin Los Angeles and

Portland, but they spend more time on the journey to workthan residents of Pittsburgh or Kansas City.

Such statistics are of little comfort to those 510,000 driverswho cross the most heavily-used bridges over the regions

major rivers everyday (See Figure II-7). Sure as the sun risesand sets, they can count on a daily slow-down as they movebetween St. Louis and St. Charles counties or betweenMissouri and Illinois. And, consequently, the dreaded toooften becomes the commonplace: being late for work, absentfrom a meeting, tardy for school; being the last parent to

arrive at the child care center; or getting to the bank after ithas already closed.

Of those vehicles that cross the Mississippi and MissouriRivers in the region every day, approximately 19 percent are

en route during the morning rush hour, when most trips aredirectly related to work Another 40 percent travel during theafternoon rush, when first-shift workers are headed home,second-shift workers are headed to work, students are leav-ing after school activities, and many others are dispersinghere and there for the leisure part of the day. The remainderof bridge traffic is spread throughout the 18 non-rush hours

of the day.

5:45 pmA young woman gets off the van at the corner and navigates

the curb cut up to the pathway to her home in unincorporat-ed West County. She has worked as a counselor at a not-for-profit organization located ten miles from her home for thepast five years. All day, she greets clients, listens to their con-cerns, offers advice and encouragement, and refers them toappropriate sources of help for needs as varied as healthcare, education and training, employment, child care, trans-

portation, mental health services, and others. It is an art thatrequires a special blend of knowledge and patience.

16 Legacy 2025

21 Roadway congestion index, prepared by the Texas Transportation Institute using2001 mobility data. The 35 metropolitan areas used in this comparison are those identi-fied by staff of the East-West Gateway Coordinating Council as being St. Louis peers.Peer regions are those that have a population of 950,000 or more and are within 500miles of St. Louis or that have an economic function similar to that of St. Louis.


21/112

This young woman is one of a growing number of well-edu-cated and caring professionals who keep the regions humanservices sector running and relevant to the needs of anincreasingly diverse population in a changing world. She is

also one of approximately 512,200 individuals in the bi-stateSt. Louis region who have a permanent disabilitysomeonewho has overcome many of the social and practical barriersto full employment through determination, community andpublic policy supports, and a variety of assistive technolo-gies.22

But many very practical barriers to full participation in theeconomic life of the community remain. National statisticsindicate that a full 89 percent of non-disabled adults aged 25-64 have completed high school, compared to only 67 percent

of adults who have a severe disability. Less than 10 percentof those with disabilities have completed collegeone-thirdthe proportion of the non-disabled population with this cre-dential.23 Education being the door to employment, it is notsurprising, then, that only 32 percent of Americans withsevere disabilities are employed full- or part-time, comparedto 84 percent of other Americans. Two-thirds of those who

are not employed say that they would prefer to be working.24

Some other barriers are largely invisible to those of us whoare not disabled and who do not live or work on a regularbasis with an individual who has a disability. Transportation

is one of thesea problem cited by 30 percent of disabledpersons in a recent Lou Harris Poll. Consider the young

woman described earlier in this scenario. Every day for thepast five years she (or a friend who helps out) have tele-phoned the Bi-State Call-a-Ride reservation line when itopens at 7:30 am to schedule her transportation to and fromwork for the same day of the following week. Because she is

not a part of the 20 percent of Call-a-Ride riders who qualifyfor subscription service, she must call every day. It can takeas long as 45 minutes (thats 20 or 30 punches on the redialbutton) before an operator answers and puts the caller onhold to schedule a ride. Because she has to be ready to geton the van to go to work when it arrives anywhere between

7:15 and 7:45 a.m., she often asks her friend to make thereservation. The whole ordeal can take as long as 90 min-utes, something you just have to build into your morningroutine, she says. Every day.

9:45 pmThe twilight shift has just ended at the 60-acre United ParcelService complex in Earth City. Sixteen of the package han-dlers leave the warehouse area together and board a smallbus marked Bridges to Work. They are 14 young men andtwo young women who live in the City of St. Louis and theinner ring suburbs of north St. Louis County, miles from this

major employment center in northwest St. Louis County.Among them are four college students, a new father who willreport at his second job tonight at 11:00, three adults fromhouseholds that have made their way off welfare, and diverse

others who find the $8.50 - $9.50 an hour and the benefits/tuition reimbursement package attractive compared to lowerwage offerings closer to home.

The twilight shift runs from 5:00 until 9:30 p.m. at UPS. It isfour-and-a-half strenuous hours of heavy lifting, unloading


22 The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 19.7 percent of the general noninstitutional-ized population has a disability, based on results of a 1996 household survey: theSurvey of Income and Program Participation. They also estimate that 12.3 percent ofthe population has a severe disability. If this proportion is applied to the St. Louismetro population, 319,800 persons would be considered severely disabled. SeeAmericans with Disabilities: Household Economic Studies:1997. Issued February 2001.

23 Ibid.

24 Results of a comprehensive Survey of Americans with Disabilities conducted byLouis Harris and Associates for the National Organization on Disability. Cited in TheState of the Union 2002 for Americans with Disabilities. Available at www.nod.org


22/112

and loading packages off rows and rows of tractor trailersthat congregated here at the end of the regular workday andthat will disperse again in many different directions whenday breaks. An estimated 1,200 peopleall members ofTeamsters Local 688work as part-time package handlers at

the Earth City Hub. In four part-time shifts that span theclock, leveraging their own physical stamina with the motionof 27 miles of conveyor belts, they move more than 400,000packages each day.25 They support the needs of businessesand individual consumers in an increasingly global, Internet-worked marketplace. They are part of what makes the trans-

portation services sector one of the growing industries in St.Louis economy.

Without Bridges to Work, the commuters who use this serv -ice would not be a part of the workforce that supports the

fastest-growing employment centers in the regions suburbs.Each of them for some reason does not have access to a pri-vate automobile and depends on public transportation to getto work, school, and other destinations. Some live in the 40percent of urban core households that have no vehicle. Somehave a car that is not reliable for a lengthy daily commute orthat is needed by other family members during work time.

Others have no drivers license or cannot afford automobileinsurance. Some seek to avoid night-time highway driving.The reasons are varied, but the barrier to work is real. In this24-7 metro-wide economy, less than half of the regions jobs

are accessible within a one hour ride by public transit.Five days a week, Bridges to Work commuters ride MetroLinklight rail as far as the Hanley Road station, where they arepicked up by the Bridges bus and taken to UPS along withother passengers traveling to employment sites in the EarthCity Business Park. At the end of the shift, its back on the busbound for the Hanley Road station, where there is often a mad

scramble to connect with the 10:04 pm eastbound train.

1:00 amWith two critically-injured teen-agers inside, an ambulanceraces from the scene of a fatal motor vehicle crash onInterstate 44 near Union. As is the case in almost 48 percentof fatal crashes, this one involved only one vehicle. The driv-

er, a 19 year old man who ran off the road at high speed andcrashed into a sign post, is dead. The two passengers are inserious condition, but they are receiving good care.Consistent with standards set by the state and the U.S.Department of Health and Human Services, emergency per-sonnel arrived within ten minutes from the time that an

approaching motorist called 911.26 The surviving passengersare now on their way to St. Louis University Medical Center,50 miles away in the City of St. Louis. St. Louis University isone of five Level I trauma centers in the bi-state region; thatis, the state has certified that they have all the required med-

ical specialists, back-ups, equipment, and supplies on hand,in house, 24 hours per day, that are needed to treat patientsrequiring acute care.

Tonight will be a night that the families and friends of theseyoung people will never forget, of course. The UnionMissourian, the twice-weekly local paper, will run the news,

and it will shake the community for days and weeks to come.But, to emergency personnel, medical examiners, and healthstatisticians, and to everyone who reads the Briefs in theSt.

Louis Post-Dispatch, the details are too familiar and the pat-

tern is horrifically apparent. Drivers less than 20 years of ageare more than twice as likely as adult drivers to be involved

18 Legacy 2025

25 Information gathered from an interview with Jeff Sauter at UPS. UPS also operates amajor distribution facility at Jefferson Avenue and I-64 in the City of St. Louis, employ-ing an additional 350 part-time package handlers.

26 Eighty percent of all EMS responders in rural areas are expected to reach the scene of alife-threatening accident within ten minutes of the time the call for assistance is placed. Inurban areas, this capability is defined by an interval of less than five minutes for 90 percentof all first-responders and less than eight minutes for at least 90 percent of all transportingEMS. See U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.Healthy People 2010.


23/112

in a motor vehicle crash.27 The fatality rate for young drivers,aged 16-19, is about four times as high as for drivers aged 25through 69. More fatal crashes occur between 4 and 7 p.m.and between midnight and 3 a.m. than any other time. Asmany as 85 percent involve seat belts that werent fastened,

speeds that were too fast, alcohol or drug use, sleepiness,distraction, or some other split-second decision or combina-tion of circumstances that transportation officials lumptogether and summarize as driver error.28

4:30 amStacks of newspapers, tied with plastic wire, hit the sidewalkoutside the newsstand at the corner of Forsyth and Central inClayton. St. Louis is not a one (or two or three or four) news-paper town anymore; it is an international market. Thebiggest stacks are theSt. Louis Post-Dispatch, of course, but

there is also The Wall Street Journal, theNew York Times , TheWashington Post, the Chicago Tribune, the Indianapolis Star,the Denver Postand more. As the buildings in Clayton fill upwith employees between 8:00 and 9:00 a.m., what nowseems like an enormous supply of papers will be nearlydepleted and the latest reports on current events will buzzthrough the hub-bub of the business day by means of print

and its media siblings: television, radio, and the Internet.Offices, courtrooms, classrooms, even hotel rooms are allwired to accommodate every possible communicationsmediathe latter being a major distribution point for USA

Today, predicted to be the largest newspaper in the UnitedStates in 2015, if present trends continue.29

Rivalry among media siblings has been an important factorin the news business over the past decade, as new develop-ments in information and communications technologies havevirtually exploded. In 1993, fewer than five million Americans

used the Internet. By 1997, this number had grown to morethan 62 million, with traffic on the world wide web doubling

every 100 days. In St. Louis, 46percent of all adults surveyed byMedia Audit in 1999 indicatedthat they had logged onto theInternet in the past month, com-

pared to 11 percent in 1996. AsFigure II-8 shows, St. Louisranked 23rd out of 35 peerregions in the percent of its popu-lation using the Internet that

year.30

The degree to which a growingpercentage of the regions popula-tion now gets information aboutcurrent events from broadcast

media and personal computers isboth undeniable and amazing.The precise impact of the Internetand television on newspaper dis-tribution is uncertain, however.Nationwide, daily newspaper cir-culation declined steadily from

1987 until 1999, from 62.8 millionto 56.0 milliona decrease of 11percent.31 The change in circula-tion varied considerably from

paper to paperwith the highestconcentration of loss in papers in


27 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Per 100,000 licensed drivers, thecrash rate is 67 for young drivers, aged 15-19, and 28 for adult drivers, 21 and older.

28 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

29 Geocities.com, 2001.

30 The Media Audit Releases 1999 Four-Year Internet Penetration Trends for 83Markets. April 2000. www.themediaaudit.com

31 U.S. Daily Newspaper Circulation. Newspaper Association of America. 2000.www.naa.org

1 Washington DC 67.9

2 San Francisco 60.6

3 Denver 60.3

4 Seattle 59.7

5 Boston 59.36 Atlanta 58.7

7 Austin 58.2

8 Minneapolis 57.9

9 Dallas 57.5

10 S alt Lake City 56.0

11 Portland 55.8

12 Chicago 53.0

13 Baltimore 53.0

14 San Diego 53.0

15 Phoenix 51.5

16 Houston 51.5

Average 50.4

17 Indianapolis 50.3

18 Columbus 49.3

19 Kansas City 49.2

20 Nashville 47.3

21 Charlotte 47.1

22 Oklahoma City 47.0

23 St. Louis 46.3

24 Louisville 45.4

25 Miami 44.6

26 Cincinnati 44.4

27 Detroit 44.3

28 New York 43.9

29 Milwaukee 43.6

30 San Antonio 42.6

31 Los Angeles 42.5

32 Philadelphia 42.4

33 Cleveland 41.3

34 Memphis 41.1

35 Pittsburgh 37.6

ONLINE POPULATION

Figure II-8

Percentage of persons logged

online the past month, 1999


24/112

the midwestern states, including Missouri and Illinois. Ratherthan substituting one media for another, however, it appearsthat many readers are simply consuming more news in smallbites from multiple sources.

And so it is that the universe has become a smaller place andSt. Louisans can experience it without ever traveling awayfrom home. Each day, a vast new world rolls in across televi-sion and computer screens throughout the region. Yet cornernewsstands and small delivery vans, paper-boys and -girlson bicycles, and household-size recycling bins overflowing

with yesterdays papers remain an integral part of regionalcommunity life now and in the foreseeable future.

5:30 amBedroom and kitchen lights are coming on, illuminating the

darkness in houses and apartments all over the regionallandscape, as elementary school students stumble out of bedto prepare for the bus ride to school. Children are one of St.Louis most diverse and most important assets. They areAfrican-American and white, Asian and Latino, and more.They are little ones with two parents who are also up andgetting ready for work; they are children in households

where Mom or Dad is taking care of things alone; some areliving with their grandparents; some are in temporary quar-ters, in between permanent places to stay. All told, there aremore than 681,727 children and youth under the age of 18 in

the eight-county region (See Table II-4). They are one ofevery four regional citizens.

In the Rockwood School District in St. Louis County, approxi-

mately 80 percent of elementary school students ride the busto school40 minutes each way, on average, filled with the

fun kinds of things kids do when theyre stuck in tight quar-ters with friends around and time on their hands. In theCahokia District, in St. Clair County, it is a similar story formore than 85 percent of the youngest students: 30 minutesen route in the morning and then again in the afternoon. Andagain, in Weldon Spring, Black Jack, Collinsville, Washington,and the City of St. Louis.

These children are preparing for a world in which reading,writing, and arithmetic are the critical foundation, but cer-tainly not the end, of the skills they will need to succeed inthe work place. A high school diploma alone no longer

ensures access to a good jobnor, necessarily, does a four-year liberal arts degree. Labor analysts say that 60-70 percentof the jobs of the 21st Century new economy will requiretwo years of post-secondary technical training, followed byperiodic skills upgrading throughout ones career. TheAmerican Engineering Association reports that those individ-

20 Legacy 2025

Table II-4

Household Relationships for Children under 18 YearsSt. Louis MSA

Number Percent

Householder or Spouse 420 0.1Child of householder 617,654 90.6

In married-couple family 440,897 64.7With female householder 145,161 21.3

Grandchild of householder 41,713 6.1Other relatives 9,741 1.4

Nonrelatives 12,199 1.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census


25/112

uals who do not pursue or complete post-secondary educa-tion are likely to be those who did not experience success inrelated fields, such as math and science, in the elementaryand secondary grades. They observe that a significant drop-off in math achievement occurs between the fourth and

eighth grades, by which time many students may be lost interms of high-tech careers. 32

6:45 amYellow school buses and vans, lights flashing, pull up to thecurbs and welcome their young passengers in St. Peters and

Kirkwood and Sullivan and Florissant and New Athens andGranite City. In DeSoto and Bethalto, construction workersare backing out of convenience store parking lots and head-ing for their job sites. In St. Louis and Earth City, brigades ofshiny brown trucks loaded with packages are getting ready

to leave the warehouses. A train stops at the Intermodaltransfer facility in Venice and a Bridges to Work van pulls upto the MetroLink station at Hanley Road. The newsstand isopen for business at Central and Forsyth in Clayton, and thekitchen is already heating up at Fischers in Belleville.

It is another day in the St. Louis region.

Trends to Watch for the FutureThe vignettes on the preceding pages tell a story about thepresent and about the future. Tomorrow is full of possibili-ties, the seeds of which are around us today. As the St. Louisregion implements the goals and objectives of the transport-

ation plan, we will be nurturing (or, alternatively, constrain-ing) these possibilities. Following are some of the importantthemes to understand as the region considers action.

1) The amount of developed land in the region is likely tocontinue to grow faster than our populationalthough the

region will spread beyond current boundaries more slowlythan in previous decades.

As has been the case for most metropolitan areas in theUnited States, communities of the St. Louis region have

become less dense over the past several decades. Urban corecommunities have thinned out and new low-density subur-ban communities have sprung up and flourished in outlyingareasthe result of the complex interaction of pushes andpulls across the metropolitan landscape. 33

Table II-5 details the trend for ten of the nations major mid-

western metros between 1982 and 1997. Midwest metropoli-tan areas as a whole (where population growth is muchslower than that of coastal regions) lost 19 percent in densityduring this time period, compared to 11 percent for metro-

politan areas in the West, 23 percent for metros in the Southand Northeast, and 20 percent for the country as a whole.34


32 New AeA Report Shows Disturbing Educational Trends for the High-Tech Industry.Press release, April 26, 2001. www.aeanet.org See St. Louis Regional WorkforceDevelopment Policy Group. Technical Education for the New Economy: ImprovedOutcomes for Manufacturing and IT. September 2001.

33 For a fuller discussion of these trends, see East-West Gateway Coordinating Council.The St. Louis Region in Motion: Trends and Opportunities for 2020...and Beyond . 1999.

34 The Brookings Institution, Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy. Who SprawlsMost? How Growth Patterns Differ Across the U.S. July 2001. See Appendix B, Changein Population, Urbanized Land and Density in 281 U.S. Metropolitan Areas, 1982-1997.pp. 19-22.


26/112

One assumption supporting the Gateway Regions trans-portation plan is that the population of the eight countieswill increase by a little more than 9 percent over the nextquarter century, to a 2025 total of 2.71 million people. AsTable II-6 indicates, most of this growth will occur in

Franklin, Jefferson, Monroe, and St. Charles counties (eachof which is forecast to have growth in the double digits).Communities in the four counties of the St. Louis standardmetropolitan statistical area (SMSA) that lie outside theeight counties included in this plan are also likely to grow,and the United States Census Bureau may redefine the St.

Louis MSA after the 2010 or 2020 Census by adding othercounties that have become a part of St. Louis economicbase. From a practical standpoint, the metropolitan areawill not spread much beyond the distance people are will-ing to travel in pursuit of the daily destinations for work

and leisure. Rather than increasing their tolerance forlengthy travel, it is possible that new communications tech-nologies will be used to fill part of the distance gap andmake travel less important than it is now.

2) The population of the region will become more and morepluralistic, and diverse population groups will have differ-ent needs and expectations about travel.

One of the most important population trends now underwayacross the nation is the aging of the populationled by thehuge baby-boom cohort, the oldest of which turned 55 in2001. Many of the baby-boomers will be near-octogenariansby 2025. They will be the first generation of seniors to havegrown up in the age of ready access to automobiles, mobile

lifestyles, relative affluence, and good health. It is very likelythat they will continue to actively participate in the regionseconomic and community life until much older ages thantheir parents generation and that they will want and expectto maintain their mobility. The weight of their numbers and

the force of their political power will require that the regionrespond.

22 Legacy 2025

Table II-5

Change in Population, Urbanized Land and Density inTen Midwestern Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 1982-1997

MSA Density Change in Change in Change in

1997 Population Urb. Land Density

Chicago 6.02 9.6% 25.5% -12.7%

Cincinnati 3.77 10.4% 40.1% -21.2%Cleveland 4.03 0.4% 31.7% -23.8%

Columbus 3.53 20.5% 36.0% -11.4%Detroit 4.27 5.0% 29.0% -18.7%

Indianapolis 3.58 19.7% 41.8% -15.5%Kansas City 3.78 17.5% 36.8% -14.1%Milwaukee 3.93 6.5% 24.9% -14.7%

Minneapolis 3.85 25.1% 61.1% -22.4%St. Louis 3.89 6.0% 25.1% -15.3%

Table II-6Population Change, St. Louis Region

Percent

ChangeCounty 19901 20001 20252 2000 to 2025

Franklin 80,603 93,807 129,800 38.4Jefferson 171,378 198,099 253,100 27.8

Madison 249,218 258,941 289,900 12.0Monroe 22,419 27,619 35,700 29.3

St. Charles 212,907 283,883 388,300 36.8St. Clair 262,874 256,082 276,700 8.1

St. Louis 993,446 1,016,315 986,000 -3.0St. Louis City 396,685 348,189 354,600 1.8Regional Total 2,389,530 2,482,935 2,714,100 9.3

1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau2 Source for 2025 projections: East-West Gateway Coordinating Council


27/112

Other important demographic trends will have an impact onthe way in the which the transportation system is usedbetween now and the year 2025. While more difficult toquantify than the aging of the population, at least two ofthese are unmistakably on the horizon: increasing numbers

of capable and active persons with disabilities (thanks in partto advances in medical and occupational technologies) and agrowing share of well-educated foreign nationals (the prod-uct of international events, federal immigration policies, andthe receptivity of the local community). 35 Absent economicand public policy interventions, a third trend now underway

also seems likely to continue: growing disparity betweenwealthy and low-income segments of the population.Persons with disabilities, immigrants, and persons in low-income households all demonstrate travel patterns andaccessibility needs that are somewhat different from the

average.36

3) With a more diverse regional community, issues of trans-portation equity will become more complex.

Equity refers to the fair and equal treatment of all regionalcitizens with respect to the development, implementation,

and enforcement of transportation policies and practices.Fair treatment implies that no person or group or peopleshould garner a disproportionate share of the benefits orshoulder a disproportionate share of the negative impacts

resulting from transportation investments.

Prior to adoption ofTransportation Redefined in 1994, equityin the long-range plan and the short- range program was

judged primarily in terms of the relative share of transporta-tion funds that were spent among the major geo-political

jurisdictions covered by the plan. Transportation Redefined

introduced additional system performance measures, empha-sizing economic, community, and environmental variables inevaluating whether or not regional standards for fairness hadbeen met. This practice acknowledges that equity has a geo-graphic dimension but must also be assessed in relationshipto the income, ethnicity and race, ability and disability, gen-

der, and age of customers served by the system.

Over the decades ofLegacy 2025 , the face and form of the St.Louis region will be more and more diverse, and equity willbe both important and difficult to achieve. Satisfying commu-

nity expectations will require ongoing attention to the needsand patterns of individuals and groups, and an expandingappreciation and more sophisticated understanding of therelationship between transportation, economic development,community vitality, and environmental quality.

4) To be competitive in future decades, private firms will

strive to meet national and global standards for innova-tion, productivity, and efficiency. Those that meet the chal-lenge will be the economic engines of the metropolitaneconomy.

In the 1960s and 70s, the goods-producing sector of theeconomy gradually lost its dominance to the fast-growingservices sector. In the 1980s and 90s, the manufacturing sec-tor (still a majoralbeit smallercomponent of St. Louisseconomic base) was almost completely transformed by com-puter-aided technologies and production techniques.

Firms in the services and advanced manufacturing sectors ofthis new economy are highly mobile and knowledge-driven.


35 At the outset of this plan, persons with disabilities comprised approximately 19.7percent and the immigrant stock (immigrants plus their children born either abroador in the United States) made up an estimated 6.7 percent of the regions population.(Both percentages are from the U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 1997).It is impossible to forecast exactly how these percentages will change in the future,although current trends suggest they will likely increase.

36 For a discussion of travel patterns and how they differ among racial, ethnic, andincome groups, see U.S. Department of Transportation.Nationwide PersonalTransportation Survey. 1995.


28/112

They operate on abusiness cycle inwhich turn-aroundis quick, costs mustbe precisely con-

trolled, and innova-tion, adaptability,and timing areessential.Throughout the timeperiod ofLegacy

2025, firms will bemotivated to seeklocations and

expansion opportunities in metro areas where complementaryfirms are clustered and where the business climate responds

to these unique needs. As illustrated in Figure II-9, 84 percentof the nations employment and 85 percent of economic out-

put was in metropolitan areas in 2000. By 2025, these propor-tions are expected to increase to 85.5 and 87 percent. St.Louiss challenge will be to maintain (or, perhaps better yet,improve) its standing as the metropolitan area with the 22ndlargest economic output in the nation. 37

Economic development officials now operate in a whole newenvironment than they did a decade or two ago, when smoke-stack-chasing was popular sport. According to the Corporationfor Enterprise Development, the key components of a positivebusiness climate today and in the future are these:

a skilled workforce in a region with strong educationalassets,

rational and reasonable policies regarding regulation andtaxation,

support for business modernization and entrepreneurialefforts,

and physical infrastructure that allows for the efficient andcost-effective movement of people and goods. 38

Transportation planners and decision-makers will also needto adapt their thinking to this new economic climate, and

find ways to better evaluate the performance of the trans-portation system in relationship to new economy goals.

5) The public, quasi-public, and private agencies responsible

for planning and operating the transportation system willcontinue to experience pressure to improve both serviceavailability, service delivery, intermodal access, and returnon investment of the tax dollar.

24 Legacy 2025

Table II-7

Employment Change, St. Louis Region

County 19901 20001 20252 PercentChange

2000 to 2025

Franklin 27,223 38,300 50,800 32.6Jefferson 35,200 49,000 64,000 30.6

Madison 94,382 101,800 114,800 12.8Monroe 4,841 7,200 11,200 55.6St. Charles 70,958 102,700 181,000 71.2

St. Clair 88,916 102,300 116,300 13.7St. Louis 518,326 611,000 685,000 12.1

St. Louis City 317,171 288,500 288,000 -0.2Regional Total 1,157,017 1,303,800 1,511,100 15.9

1 Source: 1990 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) adjusted by East-West Gateway

2 Source for 2025 projections: East-West Gateway Coordinating Council

37 DRI-WEFA, Inc. U.S. Metro Economies: The Engines of Americas Growth. Prepared forthe U.S. Conference of Mayors. 2001. www.usmayors.org

38 William Schweke et al. Improving Your Business Climate: A Guide to Smarter PublicInvestments in Economic Development. Corporation for Economic Development. 2001.www.cfed.org


29/112

These pressures will come from elected officials and otherpolicy makers, the business community, and citizens alike.Rising expectations will require planners to step outside thecomfort zone of past practice. Project design will now be theproduct of careful analysis, combined with human creativity,

engineering skills, and computer technologies. Local andregional decision-makers will be motivated to forge thecooperative relationships and political will to achieve bettersystem outcomes and decrease negative impacts and waste.The mantra accountability for results is audible in 2002, butit may crescendo long before 2025.

Meeting these expectations will require a more expansiveapproach than has ever been implemented in the past. It willnecessitate bringing together all elements of what the U.S.Department of Transportation refers to as the Transportation

Enterprise, the infrastructure, personnel and organizations ofall transportation modes, private and public, and at all levelsof governmentFederal, state, and localin short, all ele-ments and participants involved with the investment, man-agement, and uses of transportation.39 Their focus will be onmanaging existing assets to optimum performance stan-dards, advancing operational strategies to solve those mobil-

ity issues that are the product of individual and group behav-iors, and exploiting Intelligent Transportation System tech-nologies to increase safety and efficiency and to decreasecongestion and cost.

6) The financial infrastructure supporting the transportationsystem will be recast.

During the last 40 years of the 20th Century, public responsi-bility for transportation funding shifted significantly betweenFederal, state, and local governments, with the most impor-

tant trend being the devolution of responsibility from the

Federal to the state and local levels. In 1960, for example, theFederal government contributed 27 percent of all revenuesfor highways; local governments contributed 21 percent, andstates contributed the remaining 52 percent. By 1994, theFederal role was down to 19 percent; local governments

were raising 27 percent; the state contribution was up slight-ly to 54 percent.40 Put another way: transportation onceaccounted for 20 percent of the nations Gross DomesticProduct. By 2000, it was down to 11 percent. 41 PresentFederal priorities suggest that this trend will continue.

States and local governments are hard pressed to raise anddedicate the revenues needed to maintain and expand thevast metropolitan infrastructure networks for which theyhave increasing responsibility. The problem has reachedsevere proportions. In February 2002, as the final draft of

Legacy 2025 was being finalized, the nations chief stateelected officials completed a meeting of the NationalGovernors Association in which they urged Federal officialsto recognize and respond to an estimated $40 billion deficitin state governments throughout the United States. Thisdeficit has been caused by a variety of factors, including theeconomic downturn that has cut seriously into anticipated

revenues (including the motor fuel tax), costly unfunded orunderfunded mandates from the Federal government (suchas Homeland Security), and a variety of programmatic over-runs (the most serious of which is in Medicaid costs). At the


39 U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of the Assistant Secretary forTransportation Policy. Transportation Policy Architecture for the 21st Century: WhitePaper. May 2000.

40 Lee W. Munnich, Jr. Roles and Responsibilities of Government: Financial andTaxation Issues. The Future Highway Transportation System. pp. 91-107.

41 Remarks by Nuria Fernandez, Acting Administrator, Federal Transit Administration.St. Louis, MO. June 2000.


30/112

top of the governors list of needs for restored federal assis-tance is highway funding, toward which a 27 percent reduc-tion in aid to states has been proposed.42

Federal and state fuel tax receipts are down all over the

country, forcing states to cut programs or dig deeply intoreserves. Over-reliance on state fuel tax receipts at theexpense of other revenue sources comes with an additionalprice, however: flexibility to invest in modes other than road-ways. Missouri officials are prohibited from using state gastax receipts for transportation facilities other than roads and

bridges. Unlike Illinois and most other states, Missouri hasno dedicated funding stream for public transit. In St. LouisCity and County, local transit tax receipts are available forcapital costs, but there is a cap on the proportion of receiptsthat can be used for operations. These conditions, worsened

by low fare box revenues and declining ridership, haveundermined all efforts to stabilize the public transit system inthe St. Louis region.

In 2002, state and local officials are engaged in a spiriteddebate regarding the funding deficit, the potential yield anddesirability of alternative funding sources, the relative bene-

fits of investments in alternative modes, and other issues. Inthe short-term future, it is likely that this debate will contin-ue, and increase, in fact, until consensus can be reached ona financial plan that approaches needs. It seems impossible

that the future can be built entirely on the resources of thepast.

26 Legacy 2025

42St. Louis Post-Dispatch . Governors group asks for help from Washington. February24, 2002.


31/112


32/112

cent of non-local system mileage, as can be seen in Table III-2, they carry nearly 46 percent of the regions non-local traf-fic, as measured by vehicle miles of travel (VMT). Interstatesand principal arterials combined, while making up only 26percent of the non-local network, accommodate nearly 80

percent of the regions VMT.

Vehicle miles of travel (VMT) is a key measure of the extentof roadway usage. As the name implies, VMT indicates howmany miles vehicles travel on the road network over a givenperiod of time. Regional miles of travel have increased by

nearly 150 percent since 1970. During the 1980s alone, VMTgrew by 52 percent. Over the last decade, however, the rateof growth slowed to 24 percent. As Figure III-1 shows, VMTappears to be stabilizing, at least for the short term, reachinga plateau of around 68 million miles a day between 1998 and2000.

There are an esti-mated 8.2 millionperson trips madedaily in the region.That figure repre-

sents trips for allpurposes: work,school, medical,shopping, recre-ation, etc. Almost98 percent of all

trips are made inan automobile,with only about 1.6percent of tripsusing public trans-

portation.1 In 1990, there were 1.12 million workers 16 yearsand older in the St. Louis region. According to the Census,almost 80 percent of those workers drove alone to work in aprivate vehicle. Another 12 percent traveled to work in car-pools. Only three percent used public transportation. Theremaining workers either walked or used other modes, or

28 Legacy 2025

Table III-2Miles of Road and Percentage of VMT

by Roadway Classification

Roadway Miles of PercentClassification Roadway of VMT

Interstate Highways 360 46Other Principal Arterials 902 33

Minor Arterials 1,133 14

Collector Roads 2,446 7Local Streets 15,104 n/a

Regional Total 19,945 100

Source: East-West Gateway Coordinating CouncilNote: VMT is not available for Local Streets

1East-West Gateway Coordinating Council travel demand model outputs, 2000.


33/112

worked at home.2 The automobile clearly dominates personaltravel in the region.

Despite the dominance of the automobile, the region hasaggressively pursued transit expansion over the past decade,

opening two light rail routes since 1993, with two more nowbeing designed. Until recently, regional transit ridership wason an upswing, growing from about 38 million passengers a

year prior to MetroLinks opening to over 55 million passen-gers in 1998. In contrast to national trends, however, whichshow nationwide ridership growing steadily, as Figure III-2

shows, overall transit ridership in the region has declinedsince the late 1990s. 3 Still, the Bi-State Development Agencyand Madison County Transit District systems carried morethan 52 million bus and light rail passengers in 2001.

The Bi-State Development Agency operates a fixed-route bussystem that covers much of St. Louis City and County and St.Clair County, the MetroLink light rail system, and Call-A-Ridedemand response paratransit services in St. Louis City andCounty. Bi-States system currently consists of 461 buses, 80paratransit vans, and 34 miles of light rail transit serving 27stations. The opening of MetroLink in 1993 helped stabilize

regional bus ridership, which had been declining since thelate 1970s. Bus ridership during much of the 1990s wasbetween 37 and 40 million passenger a year. There has, nev-ertheless, been a steady decline in bus passengers since

1998, with ridership dropping from 39.6 million passengers inthat year to 36 million in 2001. Because of pending operatingdeficits, Bi-State restructured its bus system in October, 2001,making significant cuts in service levels. They estimate thatservice reductions will cost the system 1.2 million passengersthis year.

The first MetroLink light rail route opened between Lambert-St. Louis International Airport and East St. Louis in July 1993.In May 2001, the light rail system was expanded further intoSt. Clair County with an extension from East St. Louis toSouthwestern Illinois College in Belleville. There are plans,

within the next few years, to open two additional routes: onefrom Southwestern Illinois College to Scott/Mid-AmericaAirport, and one from the existing MetroLink line at theForest Park station to Shrewsbury. These two lines will addanother 14 miles to the system. MetroLink ridership grewsteadily from its opening until 1999, when the system carried

almost 15 million passengers. Ridership has since declined,dropping to 14.3 million in the last fiscal year. The recentopening of the St. Clair extension should help reverse thattrend. The entire Bi-State system, both bus and rail, carried50 million passengers in 2001, not including 445,000 passen-

gers using Call-A-Ride paratransit services.

The Madison County Transit District (MCT) operates a fixed-route bus system that links the Countys population centersand provides trips to downtown St. Louis and to theMetroLink system in St. Clair County. MCT also operatesdemand response paratransit services and the regional

ridesharing program. MCTs system currently consists of 76buses and 32 paratransit vans. The bus system is designedaround a hub and spoke concept with timed transfers atfive hubs located in Alton, Collinsville, Edwardsville, Granite

City, and Wood River. Ridership on the Madison County sys-tem has steadily increased throughout the 1990s, as servicehas been expanded and as the system took over expressroutes formerly provided by Bi-State. Ridership in 2001exceeded 1.8 million passengers, not including paratransitpassengers, which totaled 149,000 in 2000.


2U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 Journey to Work data.

3American Public Transit Association, APTA Transit Ridership Report, Washington,D.C., February 2002.


34/112

MCT has operated the regional ridesharing program for thelast 14 years. Operating under the name RideFinders, theprogram currently monitors over 1,500 carpools and 40 van-pools, carrying over 4,000 people. RideFinders works withover 270 employers through Employee Transportation

Coordinators (ETCs) to help establish ridesharing programsfor employees. Participation in the program has increased by184 percent (2,600 riders) since 1995 (See Table III-3).

A regional system of park-and-ride lots also supportsridesharing efforts and the regions transit systems. There arecurrently 103 park-and-ride lots in the metropolitan area,

providing more than 7,000 commuter parking spaces. Use ofthose facilities is, however, relatively low. Regionwide, theutilization rate for park-and-ride lots is only 36 percent,despite the fact that nine of the park-and-ride lots serving

MetroLink stations are routinely filled to capacity. The utiliza-tion rate for all of the 18 MetroLink park-and-ride lots is 76percent.

There are over 50 paratransit providers in the region, includ-ing Bi-State and MCT. While paratransit services tend to beconcentrated in the central portions of the region, there are

providers scattered throughout the regions eight counties.With more than 50 agencies providing service, data on the

extent of usage of paratransit is difficult to collect. However,a survey conducted in 1999 showed that the 39 providerswho responded to the survey provided over two million one-way trips.

Recently, a Paratransit Transportation ManagementAssociation (PTMA) was created to coordinate servicesamong paratransit providers in St. Louis County and the City

of St. Louis. Presently 15 agencies participatein the Association, which is managed by Bi-State. The PTMA was designed to offer a range

of services to providers, including coordinatedcommunications, scheduling, and dispatching,driver training, vehicle maintenance, and qual-ity assurance programs. The effort may soonexpand into Jefferson and St. Charles counties.

In 2001, the 200 vehicles coordinated throughthe PTMA provided nearly 540,000 one-waytrips.

Even with better service coordination, regionwide paratransitservices still fall short of demand. Studies recently conductedin Jef

Legacy 2025: The Transportation Plan for the St. Louis Region

Documents

Transcript of Legacy 2025: The Transportation Plan for the St. Louis Region