Leen Paape: Banking on Trust
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Transcript of Leen Paape: Banking on Trust
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Leadership • Entrepreneurship • Stewardship
[email protected] T + 31 (0)346-291 291 x www.nyenrode.nl
Ruim baan voor de Homo Apertus!
Leen Paape, 4 december 2013
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As long as the music is playing, we’ll keep on dancing….
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The Asch Effect
Click to play
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Some human flaws
• Overconfidence
• Extrapolation/Recency
• Attribution (succes is mijn doen, falen dat van een ander)
• Herding/group think
• Peer pressure
• Anchoring
• Framing
• Availability Heuristic
• Confirmation bias
• Hindsight bias
• Commitment escalation
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We liegen en bedriegen (en zijn irrationeel)
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Psychologie of ….. Fysiologie?
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Testosteron doet het!
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Reflex: Let’s fix the system!
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Emile Durkheim (1894)
Als de zeden toereikend zijn,
zijn wetten overbodig; als de
zeden ontoereikend zijn, zijn
wetten onuitvoerbaar.
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Adam Smith
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The proposal of any new law or regulation
which comes from [businessmen] ought always
to be listened to with great precaution, and
ought to be adopted till after having been long
and carefully examined, not only with the most
scrupulous but with the most suspicious
attention. It comes from an order of men whose
interest is never exactly the same with that of
the public, who have generally an interest to
deceive and even oppress the public, and who
accordingly have upon many occasions both
deceived and oppressed it.
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Onze reactie*• Basel I 30 pages
• Basel II 374 pages
• Basel III 616 pages
• Solvency I 17 pages
• Solvency II 175 pages
• Glass-Steagall 37 pages
• Dodd-Frank 848 pages
• In the making 60.000 pages more…… (according to mr. Haldane from the Bank of England)
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* With special thanks to prof dr Paul Frentrop
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A fundamental problem with rules
• Illusion of implasticity of our behaviour
System I System II
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Which system contains more holes?
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Complexiteit = Gevaarlijk
• Robust-Yet-Fragile (John Doyle)
• Good at anticipated risks but
• Terrible in dealing with unanticipated ones
• Derivatives contracts of 1 million pages long!
• Risk Homeostasis Risk Culture (fatality rate stays constant;
‘get in line’ or ‘get packing’; e.g. BP)
• Risk Compensation Human Psyche (e.g. seatbelts in cars)
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Waarom gaat het toch zo vaak mis?
• Framing/disentanglement
• Overflowing
• How is it possible to become homo clausus when
survival requires one to be homo apertus?
Callon (1998): Agent Network Theory (ANT)
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The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Brooksley Born Rubin, Greenspan, Summers
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Teleopathie als verklaring?
1. Fixatie, een obsessie met een bepaald doel
2. Het rationaliseren of goedpraten van gedrag
3. Onthechting, onbelangrijk vinden van andere waarden en
belangen
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Onderzoeksagenda
1. Psychologische, cognitieve vaardigheden en beperkingen individu
2. De invloed van de organisatorische context
3. De sociale interactie en groepsdynamica
4. De interconnectiviteit, complexiteit en interdependentie
5. Effectieve interventies
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Beter toezicht? (1)• Balans verantwoordelijkheid-eigen belang-zichtbaarheid van handelen
(minder doden in de gezondheidszorg)
• Horizontaal versus verticaal toezicht
• Systeemerosie/systemic risk/systeemtoezicht
• Toezicht sec of meer dan dat? (advisering/klankborden)
• Reflexief toezicht (system steward)
• Zwakke signalen/softe indicatoren/ambigue informatie
• Publieke verantwoording (verslag van RvC/RvT)
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Beter toezicht? (2)
• Vertrouwen geven/Speltheorie: tit for tat (moral hazard?)
• Mechanism design/reversed game theorie
• Nudges (zetjes in de goede richting)
• Tegenspraak bevorderen en ruimte voor de homo apertus
• Meer aandacht voor bedrijfscultuur & menselijk gedrag
• Behavioral economics/finance
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Conformity - Dead Poets Society movie
Click to play
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Must read!• Akerlof & Shiller: Animal Spirits
• Arianna Huffington: Pigs at the trough
• William Cohan: House of Cards
• Kets de Vries: Leiderschap Ontraadseld
• Frans de Waal: De Aap in ons
• Joel Bakan: The Corporation
• Nassim Taleb: The Black Swan/Fooled by Randomness
• Tim Harford: Waarom we doen wat we doen
• Loretta Napoleoni: Rogue Economics
• Richard Layard: Happiness
• Frank Partnoy: Infectious Greed
• Jeroen Smit: De Prooi
• Jared Diamond: Ondergang (Collapse)
• John Clarke: Working with Monsters
• Jim Collins: How the mighty fall• Hans Achterhuis: De utopie van de markt• Naomi Klein: De Shock Doctrine• Dan Gardner: Risk• Richard Thale/Cass Sunstein: Nudge• Steven Schuit: The Chairman makes or breaks
the board• Edgar Karssing: De oplossing is het probleem
niet• C. Fred Alford: Whistleblowers (Broken Lives and
Organizational Power)• Michael Power: Organized Uncertainty• Phil Rosenzweig: The Halo Effect• Ap Dijksterhuis: Het slimme onbewuste• Dick Swaab: Het Brein• Kahneman: Thinking; Fast and Slow
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© Nyenrode Business Universiteit +31 (0)346 - 291 211 [email protected] Find us on:
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06-53644623
Twitter: @leenpaape