Leeds City Region QuaRteRLy eConomiC suRvey QuaRteR 3 ......report growth in the greatest numbers,...

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LEEDS CITY REGION QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY QUARTER 3 2014

Transcript of Leeds City Region QuaRteRLy eConomiC suRvey QuaRteR 3 ......report growth in the greatest numbers,...

Page 1: Leeds City Region QuaRteRLy eConomiC suRvey QuaRteR 3 ......report growth in the greatest numbers, followed by Leeds. For the first time in over two years, companies in Bradford reported

Leeds City Region QuaRteRLy eConomiC suRvey QuaRteR 3 2014

Page 2: Leeds City Region QuaRteRLy eConomiC suRvey QuaRteR 3 ......report growth in the greatest numbers, followed by Leeds. For the first time in over two years, companies in Bradford reported

1 intRoduCtion

The Leeds City Region Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) is the product of a partnership between the Local Enterprise Partnership and the Chambers of Commerce within the City Region. The survey is a measure of the City Region’s business health. By analysing trends in business performance, confidence, employment and other key indicators, the QES provides a comprehensive and up to date picture of the City Region’s business community and economy.

methodoLogy

The Quarterly Economic Survey fieldwork was conducted via email and telephone. There were 801 respondents of either business owner or senior manager status, collectively employing 85,781 people. Of these 621 listed themselves as service sector and 180 listed as manufacturing or construction. 293 companies trade internationally, making up 36% of the sample. Businesses were surveyed by telephone and online questionnaires between the periods of 25th August to 15th September.

Net balance figures referred to throughout this report and represented in the graphs are determined by subtracting the percentage of companies reporting decreases in a factor from the percentage of companies reporting increases.

The Chambers that conducted the survey are:

• WestandNorthYorkshireChamberofCommerce(whichcoversBradford,Craven,York,Harrogate,LeedsandSelby).

• Mid-YorkshireChamberofCommerce(whichcoversWakefield,Calderdale and Kirklees).

The remit of the above Chambers does not extend to Barnsley and therefore findings reflect the position in most but not all of the Leeds City Region economy.

Business size CLassifiCation

1–10employees–micro-businesses

11 – 50 employees – small business

51 – 249 employees – medium business

250 + employees – large business

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2 foRewoRd By RogeR maRsh

WelcometoourlatestQuarterlyEconomicSurveywiththeChambers of Commerce. Thank you to each of the 800 businesses who have taken the time to complete the survey this quarter. It provides us with an incredibly valuable insight into how businesses across Leeds City Region view their performance and prospects.

This latest Quarterly Economic Survey shows that the pace of growth has slowed from that seen in recent surveys. This is perhaps unsurprisinggiventherecentre-emergenceofthechallengesfacing our largest trading partner, the Eurozone, and other world economies. The fact that businesses in Leeds City Region remain more confident about their prospects than at almost any time since this survey started in 2007 is encouraging and suggests a growing resilience in the local economy. Nevertheless, the slowdown emphasises that there is still work to do to ensure a sustained recovery is felt by all.

This quarter also sees the results of our annual export monitor. This shows that the major markets for City Region businesses remain EuropeandNorthAmerica,buttheMiddleEastandAfrica,aswellas South East Asia and Australia, are key trade destinations for a significant proportion of exporters, particularly manufacturers. This emphasises the scale of opportunity exporting offers.

In spite of the slowdown in overseas sales growth reported this quarter, I remain convinced that increased exporting is a path to future growth for both individual businesses and the Leeds City Region economy as a whole. Our recent events as part of Export Weekwereawaytohelpdemystifytheprocessofexportingforbusinesses, and to highlight the tremendous opportunities on offer inoverseasmarkets.IfyoumissedanyofourExportWeekevents,or you would like more information on how the LEP and its partners cansupportyourbusinesstoexport,visitourWeAreInternationalwebsite at www.exportnetwork.co.uk

WeattheLEP,alongwithbusinessesintheCityRegionandourlocal authority partners, stand ready to meet the challenge of taking controlofoureconomicdestiny.Withtheinvestmentplannedinour infrastructure, and powers devolved to enable us to invest in the priorities that are right for us, we can achieve our ambition of rebalancing the UK economy.

RogerMarsh,ChairofLEPBoard

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3 summaRy

Business Performance -Thepaceofgrowthslowedoverthelastthree months, with the number of companies reporting increases in salesbothathomeandabroadfalling.Manufacturersinparticularreport sharp declines, especially for exports with net balance down 30 points to +9%, its lowest level since Q3 2012. The service sector home sales balance slowed in the last quarter, falling 8 points, but remains historically high.

Business Confidence and indicators – Despite the slow downs, service sector confidence remains high, just dropping slightly from lastquarter’stenyearpeak.Manufacturerstooremainconfident,although the impact of global events appears to be eating into sales activity and profitability. This quarter also saw a rise in concerns over exchange rates, due no doubt to the appreciation of sterling.

employment – Employment continues to grow across Leeds City Region with overall net balance up 4%. 53% of companies reported recruitment activity in the last three months; just under half of companies recruiting (49%) were manufacturers or professional services companies, although seasonal influences saw a rise in the number of hotel and leisure operators reporting recruitment activities. Likewise construction companies reported an increasing share of recruitment this quarter.

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4 Business PeRfoRmanCe

over the past three months in your uK market…

1) Sales have: increased / remained constant / decreased

2) Orders & advance bookings have: increased / remained constant / decreased

over the past three months in your overseas market…

1) Sales have: increased / remained constant / decreased

2) Orders & advance bookings have: increased / remained constant / decreased

uK maRKet

home saLes

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q4

07Q

1 08

Q2

08Q

3 08

Q4

08Q

1 09

Q2

09Q

3 09

Q4

09Q

1 10

Q2

10Q

3 10

Q4

10Q

1 11

Q2

11Q

3 11

Q4

11Q

1 12

Q2

12Q

3 12

Q4

12Q

1 13

Q2

13Q

3 13

Q4

13Q

1 14

Q2

14Q

3 14

Net

bal

ance

(%)

Home Sales

home saLes and oRdeRs

Companies reported a slowdown in the pace of growth over the last three months with the sales net balance falling 8 points to +33%. It was a similar story for forward orders which fell 9 points. Despite the slowdown the pace of growth remains at historically high levels across Leeds City Region.

seCtoR PeRfoRmanCe

home saLes By seCtoR

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14N

et b

alan

ce (%

)

Home sales by sector

Service Manufacturing

Manufacturersrecordedthesharpestslowdownasnetbalancesforsalesandordersfell-13and-23pointsrespectively.Servicesectorsalesalsoslowed,andwhilsthighbypost-recessionlevelsthisistheweakest quarter’s growth during 2014.

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4 Business PeRfoRmanCe

Leeds City Region PeRfoRmanCe

CompaniesacrossYork,HarrogateandNorthYorkshirereportedthe highest levels of growth this quarter, followed closely by Leeds. Forward orders remain in positive territory but did fall across the City Region.

home saLes & oRdeRs

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Bradford Leeds Mid-Yorkshire York Leeds CityRegion

Domestic sales & orders - regional view

UK sales UK orders

PeRfoRmanCe By size

The pace of growth is reported as slowest within the micro business sector. This size band accounts for the vast majority of of companies in our City Region so it is important that they feel the effects of economicgrowth.However,thesectorisabletoflexveryquicklytorespondtodemand.Elsewheremid-sizedcompaniesreportgrowth in the highest numbers with 38% more companies seeing increasing sales than decreasing.

home saLes By ComPany size

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Micro Small Medium Large Leeds CityRegion

Home sales by company size

Sales Orders

summaRy

Although the pace of growth slowed across our City Region for domestic sales and orders, companies continue to report growth at historically high levels. Net balances remain strong and we have to gobacktopre-recessiondaystoseesimilarresults.

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5 exPoRt maRKets

exPoRt saLes

-£600,000

-£400,000

-£200,000

£0

£200,000

£400,000

£600,000

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q2

08Q

3 08

Q4

08Q

1 09

Q2

09Q

3 09

Q4

09Q

1 10

Q2

10Q

3 10

Q4

10Q

1 11

Q2

11Q

3 11

Q4

11Q

1 12

Q2

12Q

3 12

Q4

12Q

1 13

Q2

13Q

3 13

Q4

13Q

1 14

Q2

14Q

3 14

Qua

rter

ly C

hang

e in

Exp

ort V

alue

s (£)

Net

Bal

ance

(%)

Export Sales

Change in value of exports (Y&H) All business

Source:LCRChambersandHMRevenue&Customs

exPoRt saLes and oRdeRs

As with domestic order books there was a marked decline in the pace of growth of exports this quarter as the overall net balance fell 21 points to +17%.

Leeds City Region PeRfoRmanCe

OnceagaincompaniesinYork,HarrogateandNorthYorkshirereport growth in the greatest numbers, followed by Leeds. For the first time in over two years, companies in Bradford reported a net balance in negative territory, i.e. more companies reporting decreases than increases.

exPoRt saLes & oRdeRs By LoCation

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Bradford Leeds Mid-Yorkshire York Leeds City Region

Export sales & orders - regional view

Overseas sales Overseas orders

Source:LCRChambersandHMRevenue&Customs

Business seCtoR and size

exPoRt saLes By seCtoR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14

Exports sales by sector

Services Manufacturing

Source:LCRChambersandHMRevenue&Customs

There is a stark difference in the performance across sectors with manufacturing showing a steep slowdown in export sales, although there is still growth with just under 10% more companies reporting increases.

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5 exPoRt maRKets

exPoRt destinations

This quarter we carried out our annual export destinations monitor. Once again, our biggest trading partners are Europe and North America. 64% of service sector companies and 75% of manufacturers who export list the western EU as one of their markets. Other EU destinations remain a strong market for the Leeds City Region and are perhaps at the heart of the current slowdown. The BRIC economies remain less appealing than those more traditional markets closer to home, as well as Africa and the MiddleEast.

exPoRt destinations

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Western EU(including

ROI)

Other EU USA &Canada

Africa &Middle East

Other SEAsia &

Australasia

India &South Asia

China Russia South &CentralAmerica

Export destinations

Services Manufacturing

summaRy

The pace of growth has slowed for exporters this quarter, symptomatic perhaps of a flat lining Eurozone and strengthening of thepoundagainstothermajorcurrencies.Manufacturersreportthesteepest declines, although as they are more likely to export than theirservicesectorcounterpartsthisshouldnotbeasurprise.Worldtrade has slowed and this is reflected in our figures. Our reliance on Europe as our largest trading partner is a cause for concern given the low growth rate in the Eurozone.

we are international!

21st CentuRy Business oPPoRtunities aRe gLoBaL. if you have a maRKet in the uK, you CouLd have maRKets eveRywheRe.

There is a company in Barnsley exporting

sushi products to Japan. There is an

agencyinYorkbrandingaParisianand

Dubai oil company. There are businesses

acrossYorkshireservicingandsupplying

companies across the world.

TheWeAreInternationalExportNetwork

is the core element of a new campaign to

increase exports from Leeds City Region

companies by £2.6bn by 2018. The Export

Network brings together experienced

exporters from a wide range of industry

sectors who will act as ambassadors,

champions and mentors for businesses

looking to start trading internationally or

enter new markets. The Chamber’s own

research shows that exporting businesses

are generally more successful and resilient

than those who do not yet two thirds of

businesses do not even have exporting

aspartoftheirgrowthstrategy.More

information can be found at

www.exportnetwork.co.uk

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6 emPLoyment

over the past three months has your workforce:

Increased / remained constant / decreased

over the next three months will your workforce:

Increase / remain constant / decrease

have you experienced any difficulties recruiting staff?

Yes/No

which of the following categories of staff did you have difficulties recruiting?

Skilled manual or technical/ professional or managerial/ clerical/ semi-skilledorunskilled

emPLoyment oveR the Last 3 months has woRKfoRCe inCReased / Remained Constant / deCReased

1,280,000.00

1,300,000.00

1,320,000.00

1,340,000.00

1,360,000.00

1,380,000.00

1,400,000.00

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Q108

Q308

Q109

Q309

Q110

Q310

Q111

Q311

Q112

Q312

Q113

Q313

Q114

Q314

Tota

l em

ploy

men

t Lee

ds C

ity R

egio

n

Net

bal

ance

(%)

Over the last three months has your workforce increased / remained constant / decreased?

Total employment (LCR) Net Balance

Source: LCR Chambers & ONS

woRKfoRCe LeveLs

Despite slowdowns in trade, companies continue to create jobs in Leeds City Region, with the latest results setting a new high.

Leeds City Region PeRfoRmanCe

Positive contributions were made to employment growth right across Leeds City Region over the last three months and this looks settocontinueintothenextquarter.CompaniesinYork,HarrogateandNorthYorkshireareforecastinggrowthabovetheCityRegionaverage.

Changes in woRKfoRCe - RegionaL oveRview

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Bradford Leeds Mid-Yorkshire York Leeds City Region

Changes in workforce

last quarter next quarter

emPLoyment By ComPany size

Whilstallpartsofthesizespectrumareincreasingheadcount,thestandoutresponseisthatofmid-sizedcompanieswhosignificantlyoutperform the City Region average.

emPLoyment By ComPany size

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Micro Small Medium Large Leeds City Region

Changes in workforce

Last quarter Next quarter

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6 emPLoyment

JoB CReation

53% of companies attempted to recruit staff over the last quarter. Professional & Financial Services (24%) along with manufacturing (25%)accountedfornearlyhalfofallofthisactivity.Hotelandcatering companies took a larger share of recruitment activity, up 3% due to seasonal factors. Similarly construction increased its share of recruitment activity, up 2%

ReCRuitment Last QuaRteR

4% 3%

8%

25%

4% 20%

24%

5% 3% 4%

Recruitment activity

Construction

Consumer Services

Hotel & Catering

Manufacturing

Marketing & Media

Other services

Professional Services

Retail & Wholesale

Transport & Distribution

Voluntary Sector

Of those companies reporting recruitment activity, 72% of service sector vacancies and 89% of manufacturing vacancies were for permanent positions, the majority of which were for full time roles.

49% of companies reported difficulties trying to find suitably qualifiedstaffinQ3,down1%onthelastquarter.Higherlevelskillscontinue to present the most problems.

Positions vaCant RePoRting diffiCuLties Q2 2014

Skilled manual / technical 21%

Professional / managerial 23%

Clerical 9%

Semi / unskilled 10%

summaRy

Although the pace of sales growth slowed in the last three months, companies in Leeds City Region continue to create jobs at record rates.

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7 Business ConfidenCe

Business ConfidenCe and otheR indiCatoRs

Q | do you believe over the next 12 months...

1) Turnover will: improve / remain constant / worsen

2) Profitability will: improve/ remain constant / worsen

Q| is your business currently under pressure to raise its prices from any of the following:

Pay settlements/ raw material prices/ finance costs/ other overheads

Q| Please indicate which of the following factors are more of a concern to your business than three months ago:

Interest rates/ exchange rates/ business rates/ inflation/ competition/ taxation

Q| over the next 3 months, do you expect the price of your goods/service to:

Increase / remain constant / decrease

PRofitaBiLity exPeCtations

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-20

0

20

40

60

80

Q3

07Q

4 07

Q1

08Q

2 08

Q3

08Q

4 08

Q1

09Q

2 09

Q3

09Q

4 09

Q1

10Q

2 10

Q3

10Q

4 10

Q1

11Q

2 11

Q3

11Q

4 11

Q1

12Q

2 12

Q3

12Q

4 12

Q1

13Q

2 13

Q3

13Q

4 13

Q1

14Q

2 14

Q3

14

Net

bal

ance

(%)

Profitability Expectations

tuRnoveR and PRofitaBiLity

The slowing in the pace of growth has had an impact on business confidence.Nevertheless,itremainsatpre-recessionlevelsonceagain. Net balances fell 4 points and 6 points respectively for expectations of increasing turnover and profitability.

PeRfoRmanCe By seCtoR

There is a marked difference between the sectors this quarter. The service sector expectations of turnover improvements fell only slightly from last quarter’s ten year peak, similarly for profitability whichfell5points.Manufacturersontheotherhandreportedamore cautious outlook, reflective perhaps of the steeper drop in sales activity. Expectations of profit within the sector fell back to the same position reported in Q3 2013. This is certainly not a reason to panic but acts as a reminder of the growth we have experienced in the last 12 months.

ConfidenCe By seCtoR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014

Turnover Profits

Business confidence by sector

Services Manufacturing

Leeds City Region PeRfoRmanCe

Confidence remains strong across Leeds City Region, although there are noticeable variations. Companies in Bradford still lag the City Region average, but with development activity beginning to accelerate in the city we may see this influence the wider economy and improve confidence.

ConfidenCe aCRoss Leeds City Region

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Bradford Leeds Mid-Yorkshire York Leeds City Region

Confidence across the Leeds City Region

Turnover Profits

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7 Business ConfidenCe

otheR indiCatoRs

Pressures to raise prices are largely benign this quarter with the exception of raw material prices for manufacturers, although even that fell slightly in the last three months.

PRiCe PRessuRes

manufaCtuRing seCtoR seRviCe seCtoR

Q2 2014

Q3 2014 vaRiation

Q2 2014

Q3 2014 vaRiation

Pay settlements 20% 19% -1% 11% 11% N/C

Raw material prices 48% 45% -3% 16% 13% -3%

Finance costs 10% 10% N/C 10% 10% N/C

Fuel / Utilities 26% 18% -8% 19% 15% -4%

Other overheads 17% 15% -2% 17% 14% -3%

The appreciation of sterling grew as a concern this quarter with manufacturers; clearly this factor plays an important role with regard to exports. The manufacturing sector remains fiercely competitive with 39% of companies stating this is more of a concern this quarter than last. Speculation over interest rate rises rose slightly for service sector companies although this may ease if the current slowdown in the pace of growth continues into another quarter.

moRe of a ConCeRn this QuaRteR?

manufaCtuRing seCtoR seRviCe seCtoR

Q2 2014

Q3 2014 vaRiation

Q2 2014

Q3 2014 vaRiation

Interest rates 20% 18% -2% 14% 17% +3%

Exchange rates 33% 37% +4% 11% 11% N/C

Business rates 19% 17% -2% 17% 15% -2%

Inflation 19% 12% -7% 19% 16% -3%

Competition 37% 39% +2% 40% 33% -7%

Taxation 18% 19% +1% 20% 18% -2%

PRiCe Rise

exPeCtations of PRiCe Rises v infLation

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14

Infla

tion

(%)

Net

bal

ance

(%)

Expectations of price rises v inflation

Inflation Service Manufacturing

summaRy

Confidence amongst service sector companies remains very high despitethepaceofgrowthappearingtoslow.Manufacturersaremore reserved in their outlook, cautious that global factors may impact their growth aspirations.

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8 investment, CashfLow and CaPaCity

Q | over the past three months what changes have you made to your investment plans for...

1) Plant/ machinery/ equipment: increased/ remained constant / decreased

2) Training: increased/ remained constant / decreased

Q | during the past three months has your cash flow:

Increased/ remained constant/ decreased

Q | are you currently operating at:

Full capacity/below capacity

investment LeveLs

Capital investment remained unchanged for the third consecutive quarter with net balance stuck at +25%. Investment in training nudged up 3 points in the last quarter.

CaPitaL investment

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Q307

Q407

Q108

Q208

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

Q311

Q411

Q112

Q212

Q312

Q412

Q113

Q213

Q313

Q413

Q114

Q214

Q314

Net

bal

ance

(%)

Capital Investment

investment intentions By seCtoR

The overall rise in training investment can be attributed mostly to the manufacturing sector, where net balance rose 14 points. A much more modest 2% rise was recorded across the service sector.

investment intentions By seCtoR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014

Capital Training

Investment intentions by sector

Services Manufacturing

investment By ComPany size

As has been reported in previous quarters, investment across the City Region is being led by larger organisations although we note that across the size profile, more report increases than otherwise. Despite the growth in net balance, the bulk of companies continue to report no change. This has remained at around 60 to 70% of companies for a number of years.

investment By ComPany size

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Micro Small Medium Large Leeds City Region

Companies reporting increased investment

Capital Training

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8 investment, CashfLow and CaPaCity

Cash fLow

Cash flow eased across the City Region although, contrary to previous quarters, larger companies reported a tightening of conditions.

CashfLow

Q307

Q407

Q108

Q208

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

Q311

Q411

Q112

Q212

Q312

Q412

Q113

Q213

Q313

Q413

Q114

Q214

NetBalance 11 13 4 -7 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -6 -5 5 -6 -3 -2 -1 -2 3 -2 4 4 5 11 14 15 17

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Cash flow

Manufacturersreportedamodestimprovementincashflow,up2 points on the last quarter, whilst service sector companies held broadly on a par with the last quarter.

CashfLow By ComPany size

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Micro Small Medium Large Leeds City Region

Cash flow by company size

Q2 2014 Q3 2014

CashfLow By seCtoR

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Services Manufacturing

Cash flow by sector

Q2 2014 Q3 2014

Leeds City Region PeRfoRmanCe

CashfLow - RegionaL BReaKdown

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Bradford Leeds Mid-Yorkshire York Leeds City Region

Cashflow across region

Q2 2014 Q3 2014

Cash flow is considerably more of an issue in Bradford than elsewhere in Leeds City Region.

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8 investment, CashfLow and CaPaCity

CaPaCity

Capacity across the City Region remains broadly on a par with the previous quarter with some small variations on the number of companies reporting they are operating at the maximum. Service sector companies operating at capacity was up 1%, with manufacturing down 3%. There remains quite a lot of spare capacity in the City Region, which would ordinarily contradict with companies’ reported employment intentions.

CaPaCity By seCtoR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Service Manufacturing

Capacity by sector

Full Below

Looking at capacity by company size it is apparent that the smaller the company the more likely you are to have spare capacity.

Anexplanationmightbetheriseinself-employmentobserved nationally shown below and the phenomenon of “underemployment”,wherebythegrowthinpart-timeworkandself-employmenthasfaroutpacedgrowthoffull-timeemployment.Thissuggeststhatmanypeoplewhowouldliketoworkfull-timeareunable to do so.

CaPaCity By ComPany size

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Micro Small Medium Large

Capacity by company size

Full Below

Source ONS (including the Labour Force Survey) as reported in Bank of England Q2

2014 inflation report

summaRyInvestment remains sluggish across the City Region with the majority of companies continuing with the status quo. Cash flow appears to be easing although this doesn’t seem to be uniform. There remains much spare capacity in the City Region but this would appear to be sharpest at the small end of the company spectrum.

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9 data sheet Q2 2014

Leeds City Region

inCRease

(%)

Remain Constant (%)

deCRease

(%) net BaLanCe (%)

Change fRom Last QuaRteR (%)

Domestic sales 47 39 14 33 -8

Domestic orders 43 40 17 27 -9

Overseas sales 37 42 20 17 -21

Overseas orders 34 43 23 11 -24

Employment last quarter 31 60 9 23 +4

Employment next quarter 31 64 4 27 N/C

Turnover next 12 months 71 22 7 64 -4

Profitability next 12 months 63 27 10 53 -6

Investment in capital 30 65 5 25 N/C

Investment in training 27 70 3 24 +3

Cash flow 34 49 17 17 +1

Prices / Costs 22 75 3 19 +1

manufaCtuRing seRviCe

inC% RC% deC% nB% QtR Change inC% RC% deC% nB% QtR

Change

Domestic sales 44 38 18 26 -13 47 40 13 34 -8

Domestic orders 39 38 24 15 -23 45 41 14 31 -5

Overseas sales 36 39 25 9 -30 39 45 17 22 -15

Overseas orders 33 37 30 3 -35 35 48 17 17 -16

Employment last quarter 32 57 11 21 -4 31 61 8 24 +6

Employment next quarter 34 60 6 28 -3 30 66 4 26 +2

Turnover next 12 months 66 27 7 59 -9 73 21 6 67 -3

Profitability next 12 months 54 33 13 41 -16 66 26 9 57 -2

Investment in capital 32 62 6 27 +3 29 67 4 24 -2

Investment in training 30 65 5 25 N/C 26 71 3 23 +4

Cash flow 29 52 18 11 +2 35 49 17 18 N/C

Price / costs 22 70 8 14 -2 22 76 2 21 +2

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10 notes

Note about this survey: Net Balance figures used in this survey are calculated by subtracting the percentage number of companies reporting a decrease in sales, orders etc. from those reporting an increase. A positive balance therefore reflects the fact that more companies than not report an increase, and the balances are used to track trends over time using results from previous surveys. For example if 23% of firms report an increase but 15% report a decrease, the net balance is +8%. Rounding errors may give occur in this data meaning some rows may not add up to 100%

For more information on the background of this survey please contact Nigel Guy on 0771 221 4134 or email [email protected].

Page 18: Leeds City Region QuaRteRLy eConomiC suRvey QuaRteR 3 ......report growth in the greatest numbers, followed by Leeds. For the first time in over two years, companies in Bradford reported