Lecture 20131120 koepke

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Warsaw University – Sören Köpke M.A. November 20, 2013

Political Ecology of Climate Change, Food Insecurity and Social Conflict

Sören Köpke M.A.| University Warsaw November 20, 2013

Structure

1 Introduction/Background 2 Hypothesis 3 Literature

•  3.1 Climate and Conflict •  3.2 Theories on Food Insecurity •  3.3 Theories on Social Conflict

4 Political Ecology as a Theoretical Framework 5 Methods 6 Case Overview

•  Darfur/Sudan •  Somalia •  North Mali

7 Outlook


1. Introduction/Background

•  Climate Change is a phenomenon largely explored by the natural sciences. Wenzel (2010)

demands to improve the understanding of the social science perspective on the consequences of climate change on human societies.

•  The most severe dangers of climate change are sudden-onset events like flooding, extreme storms, prolonged droughts. Slow-onset events like rising sea levels create different problems that can be addressed within other frameworks.

•  Agriculture-based societies are most vulnerable. •  Rising food prices and heightened probabilities of yield failure create scenarios that make social

conflicts much more likely than in conditions without climate change (Brown 2011).

Conflicts while handing out Bread, Egypt 2008, Source: The Telegraph Website


2 Hypothesis

.

•  I am trying to find out whether climate change is likely to trigger social conflicts through food

insecurity.

Climate Change → Food Insecurity → Social Conflict

•  I suggest that food insecurity triggered by climate change only leads to social conflict under a set of intervening variables, which I describe as following:

•  Neglect of grievances of food-insecure populations •  Overreliance on market solutions vs. emergency handouts •  Militarization/ violent suppression of protest

→ Loss of Government Legitimacy


Research Question:

How does climate-change-induced food insecurity create conflict in vulnerable societies? Which socio-economic, political and

ecological factors influence conflict genesis under this condition?


3 Literature Overview

3.1 Climate and Conflict •  Welzer (2010), Dyer (2010) etc. see environmental depletion and overexploitation of ressources

as fundamental causes for future conflict. Empirical evidence is weak (Gledditsch & Nordås 2007) •  There seems to be a significant causal link between a warming climate (even minor temperature

variability), more extreme rainfall, and the likelihood of different scales of conflict (Hsiang, Burke & Miguel 2013). This does not explain the mechanisms relevant to the question at hand.

•  Homer-Dixon (1999) is an often-cited and controversial author who tried to establish the greater connections between ressource scarcity and conflict genesis. Although his mode of explanation is ideational, he is often seen as a neo-malthusian.

Malawian Women waiting for water. Source: NY Times Website



„Each case of environmentally induced conflict is complex and unique: each has a specific ecosystem, history, culture, economy, set of actors, and set of power relations among these actors.“

– (Homer-Dixon 1999)



3.2 Explanations of Food Crises •  Food security crises are a constant factor in human societies (Arnold 1991). Materialist approaches

emphasize the importance of basic economic needs to human survival. Fraser & Rimas (2010) find that food production is the spine of civilizations. A functioning human-nature-relationship enabling food production is the basis for social well-being.

•  In his Essay on the Principles of Population Thomas R. Malthus first established the relation

between population growth and scarcity. He postulates that exponential growth of populations cannot be met by the development of food resources. Hunger and conflict are the consequences. His „Food Availability Decline (FAD)“-thesis is supported by („neo-malthusian“) theoreticians until today, but is critizised by others (e.g. Amartya Sen).

•  Mike Davis (2002) in his study of late victorian drought-famines in Asia and elsewhere portrays the relations between climate events, colonial violence, yield failure and socio-economic grievances.

•  Armed conflict is a major cause of food insecurity in itself. This creates the problem of possible vicious circles (see Somalian Civil War)



3.3 Explanations of Social Conflict •  The question of economic causes to social conflict where addressed by Karl Marx and Friedrich

Engels. Their Historical Materialism, which was mainly concerned with the history of class conflict, was understood to be too economistic and reductionist in the course ot the 20th century.

•  Rational-Choice-based analyses have become important especially in the field of International

Relations. On this basis, Collier & Hoeffler (2000) bring forth the thesis that individual profit interests are more likely to influence conflict genesis than collective grievances („Greed vs. Grievances“). This thesis is problematic in regards to the research question at hand.

•  Johan Galtung (1958) theorizes conflict from a structuralist perspective. He emphasizes the socio-economic and power structures that give birth to violent conflict.


4 Political Ecology

•  Political Ecology is a broad theoretical approach that looks at the political character of

ecologogical conflicts and the social construction of „nature“, as well as economic dynamics of resource use

•  It especially focusses on the distribution of costs and profits in the use of natural ressources (Bryant & Bailey 1997; Robbins 2004; Peet et.al. 2010).

•  Political Ecology was originally a materialist approach and was influenced by neo-marxist

readings of political economy in the 1970s. Later a critical turn away from overtly deterministic positions led to more pluralistic and local-based research. At the same time, post-structuralist theory influenced Political Ecology. Demarkations against neo-malthusian models and environmental determinism continue to characterize the approach („apolitical ecology“: Robbins 2004)

•  My own approach is based solely on structuralist assumptions; hegemonic discourse strategies do not feature in the analysis.


5 Method

Case Study Method •  The comparative case study method allows for a theoretically sound, controlled comparison of

the phenomenon under research in different varieties. Findings can be put into context and offer high construct validity (Bennet 2004).

•  Case study research allows for a mix of data collection methods and sources. Data is found in press clippings, historical records, meteorological and economic data provided by governmental and intergovernmental organisations , conflict data bases,etc.

•  Fieldwork including semi-structured interviews and participant observation would be extremely helpful in rounding up findings and securing the depthness of case analysis. Security considerations, however, present a huge obstacle to conducting fieldwork. In similar studies, researchers interviewed people from the diasporas dwelling in refugee camps (Warner et al. 2012)


6 Case Overview

6.1 Darfur-Conflict (2003-2010) •  Prolonged droughts in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s led to the deterioation of livelihood in

the Darfur states of Western Sudan. The population of Darfur looked back at a long history of socio-economic and political marginalization. Recurrent clashes between nomadic pastoralists („Arabs“) and smallholding farmers („Africans“) occur over meadow ground and water resources.

•  In 2003 rebel militias of the „African“ ethnies of Zaghawa, Masalit und Fur start an uprising The

Sudanese central government answers by arming „Arabian“ militias on horseback („Janjaweed“). Atrocities and massacres as well as mass displacement escalate the conflict.

•  The conflict has colonial roots in the history of the marginalization of Darfur. Geopolitical impacts are visible (Conflict in Chad; Lybian politics under Ghadaffi; Sudanese Civil War)

•  The first „Climate War“? (Moon 2007)


6 Case Overview

6.2 Somalian Civil War (2009-) •  Somalia is a „failed state“ par excellence. Since the downfall of the dictatorship of Siad Barre

1991, the country is in a state of constant strife of varyiing intensity. Interventions by US and UN forces (1992-93) in the face of hunger catastrophe ended as military catastrophes.

•  2006 Ethiopia intervenes as ally of the USA. Somalia become a theatre of war in the „War on

Terror“. Parts of the country are ruled by the Islamic Court Union (ICU) which are framed as Jihadists and allies of Al-Qaeda.

•  New Phase of conflict from 2009; Al-Shabaab-Militias are the leading enemies against

Transitional Government and UN Troups; a militant successor organisation of the ICU with overt connections to jihadist networks

•  June 2011 sees a peak in drought-related famine. Mass displacement of weakened and starving Somalians swell refugee camps in Kenya. Al-Shabaab blocks migration and aid convoys in areas under their control.


6 Case Overview

6.3 Northern Mali (2012-2013) •  The ongoing deterioation of livelihoods of the Tuareg population in arid Northern Mali was

caused by recurring droughts. This led to a series of uprisings in the region. In January 2013 the Tuareg militia MLNA starts and insurgency and calls for an independent AZAWAD. The insurgency is followed by a government crisis and a coup d‘etat in Mali‘s capital Bamako.

•  Jihadist groups (AQMI, MUJAO, Ansar Dine), who are former allies, defeat the MLNA. Adherents

of Political Islam establish their rule in Northern Mali on the base of an extremely strict intrepretation of Islam

•  Mail and other parts of Western Africa play an important role in transcontinental drug trafficking. Opponents on both sides profit from the trade.

•  In January 2013, the intervention of an international military alliance under the leadership of former colonial power France begins. Fast military successes lead to a defeat of Jihadist forces.


7 Outlook/ Policy Recommendations

•  Stop the militarization of conflicts that are caused and supported by neglect of basic human needs. Adress basic human needs first and foremost and make them part of every peace-building effort.

•  Increase resilience of local communities against climate change by establishing sustainable food chains, access to safe water, and adequate distribution of land ressources.

•  Implement social policies that increase equity. Work on capacity-building. Secure finance to adapt to climate change also in regards to food security.

•  Re-direct adaptation policies away from the overemphasis on technological and market solutions

•  Mitigate the most severe dangers of climate change by de-carbonizing industries and households.


Thank you for your attention!

Arrival at Daadab Refugee Camp. Source :WFP.org, 2012

Lecture 20131120 koepke

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