University of Arizonanitro.biosci.arizona.edu/zeeb/leprefs/n1784.pdfCreated Date: 20044004094000
Lecture 19 Long term selection handout - University of...
Transcript of Lecture 19 Long term selection handout - University of...
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Lecture 19Lecture 19Long Term Selection:Long Term Selection:
TopicsTopicsSelection limits Selection limits Avoidance of inbreeding
New Mutations
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Lecture 19 2
Roberson (1960) Limits of Roberson (1960) Limits of SelectionSelection
• For a single gene – selective advantage s, – the chance of fixation is a function only
of Ns, where N is the effective population size.
• In artificial selection based on the individual measurements,– the expected limit is a function of Ni– i is the selection intensity
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Lecture 19 3
VerificationVerification
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Lecture 19 4
VerificationVerification
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Lecture 19 5
Effect of Selection Intensity on Effect of Selection Intensity on N, the effective population sizeN, the effective population size• As Selection Intensity Increases
– Number of breeders decreases
• For the same total number of breeders– Effective population size is less for Randomly
Selected parents than directionally selected– If the heritability is greater than 0, then
relatives are more similar for that trait than non-relatives
– Directional Selection tends to select relatives because they have similar performance
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Lecture 19 6
Roberson (1960) Limits of Roberson (1960) Limits of SelectionSelection
• In a selection program of individual selection of equal intensity in both sexes, the furthest limit should be attained when half the population is selected each generation.
• This is especially true if additive variance predominates and within family selection is utilized, i.e. the best male and female in each family is chosen. In which case the limit may be increased by almost 50% above that of simple mass selection saving the best 50% (Dempfle, 1975)
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Lecture 19 7
Selection Limits as a function of Percent SavedSelection Limits as a function of Percent SavedGen 1Gen 1--1010
N=2048u=.0001
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Lecture 19 8
Selection Limits as a function of Percent SavedSelection Limits as a function of Percent SavedGenerations 1Generations 1--100100
N=2048
u=.0001N=2048u=.0001
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Lecture 19 9
Selection Limits as a function of Percent SavedSelection Limits as a function of Percent SavedGenerations 1Generations 1--200200
N=2048
u=.0001N=2048u=.0001
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Lecture 19 10
Roberson (1960) Limits of Roberson (1960) Limits of SelectionSelection
• The use of information on relatives is always a sacrifice on the eventual limit for the sake of immediate gain in the early generation.
• The loss may be small in large populations
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Lecture 19 11
Experimental EvidenceExperimental Evidence
• Theoretical Advantages of Index (family) Selection Over Mass Selection Not Attained– Kinney Et Al., 1970 – Doolittle, Et Al. 1972– Garwood and Lowe, 1979; Garwood Et Al.,
1980– Wilson, 1974; – Campo and Tagarro, 1977– Perez and Toro 1992
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Lecture 19 12
Experimental Results Experimental Results (Wilson, 1974)(Wilson, 1974)
I=individual Mass SelectionI=individual
Mass Selection
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Lecture 19 13
Experimental Results Experimental Results (Wilson, 1974)(Wilson, 1974)
I=individual Mass Selection
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Wilson (1974) Wilson (1974) ConcludedConcluded
““There Is No Obvious There Is No Obvious Explanation for the Explanation for the
Discrepancies That Exist Discrepancies That Exist Between These Experimental Between These Experimental Results and the Theoretical Results and the Theoretical
Expectations”.Expectations”.
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Possible Possible ExplanationExplanation
InbreedingInbreeding
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Lecture 19 16INT 5 7 8 10 20 50
RESP
ONSE
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GENERATIONS1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
BLUP Selection Additive Effects
50%
20%
5%
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Lecture 19 17
INT 5 7 8 10 20 50
RESP
ONSE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GENERATIONS1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
BLUP Selection Dominance Effects
50%
20%
5%
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Lecture 19 18INT 5 7 8 10 20 50
INBRE
EDING
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
GENERATIONS1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
5%
20%
50%
Selection Intensity and Inbreeding with BLUP
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Lecture 19 19
Inbreeding ImpactsInbreeding Impacts• Random Genetic Drift
–With Additive Systems Inbreeding Causes Loss of Favorable Alleles
–Lowers Selection Limits –Effects Seen in the Long Term
• Directional Dominance–Causes a Further Depression in The
Mean Due to Loss of Heterozygosity–Effect Seen in the Short Term
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Comparison Between Comparison Between BLUP and MASSBLUP and MASS
Same Selection IntensitySame Selection Intensity
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Lecture 19 21LINE 1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12
RESP
ONSE
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GENERATIONS1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Additive Effects
BLUP
MASS
50%5%
20%
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Lecture 19 22LINE 1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12
RESP
ONSE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GENERATIONS1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Dominance Effects
5%
7%
20%
50%
BLUP
MASS
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Lecture 19 23
Experimental Results Experimental Results (Wilson, 1974)(Wilson, 1974)
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Lecture 19 24
Avoid InbreedingAvoid Inbreeding• Selection Program
–Maximize Selection Intensity–Minimize Inbreeding–Cannot do both
• Optimal Breeding Program–Depends on Time Horizon
Short term-Maximize selection intensityLong Term-select upper 50% and equal
number of males and femalesWithin Family Selection
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Lecture 19 25
Methods to Control Inbreeding and Methods to Control Inbreeding and Maximize Response: Fixed GenerationsMaximize Response: Fixed Generations• Meuwissen (1997) Maximizing the response of selection
with a predefined rate of inbreeding J ANIM SCI 75 (4): 934-940
–maximizes genetic gain– constraining their average coancestry to
a predefined value. –At equal rates of inbreeding, genetic
gains were 21 to 60% greater than that with selection just for BLUP-EBV
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Lecture 19 26
Methods to Control Inbreeding and Methods to Control Inbreeding and Maximize Response:Maximize Response: Overlapping Overlapping
GenerationsGenerations
• Meuwissen and Sonesson AK (1998). Maximizing the response of selection with a predefined rate of inbreeding: Overlapping generations. J ANIM SCI. 76 : 2575-2583
– dynamic selection rule developed• maximizes selection response in
populations with overlapping generations. • At the same rates of inbreeding, the
dynamic selection rule obtained up to 44% more genetic gain than direct selection for BLUP breeding values.
• advantage of the dynamic rule over pure BLUP selection decreased with increasing population sizes
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Long Term SelectionLong Term Selection
LimitsLimitsCausesCauses
New MutationsNew Mutations
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Lecture 19 28
Case StudyCase StudyTribolium Tribolium castaneum:castaneum:TheThe red flour red flour
beetlebeetle
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Lecture 19 29
Tribolium Life HistoryTribolium Life History
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Lecture 19 30
Large LinesLarge Lines• Replications I and II (Large I and II)
– Initiated 1954 –8 heterogeneous randomly mated
populations (Purdue +)
• Rep III– initiated in 1961 – Purdue + foundation
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Lecture 19 31
Small LinesSmall Lines• Initiated in 1963
– Used Same Line as Large (Purdue +)
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Lecture 19 32
Procedure Procedure • Large I, II, III and Small
–Closed Populations–Selection Pupae Weight (100/400)
• 200 Pupa Of Each Sex Were Weighed• Largest or Smallest 50 of Each Sex Chosen• Randomly Mated in Mass
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Lecture 19 33
Relaxed SelectionRelaxed Selection• Varying Periods Of Length• Combat The Loss Of Reproductive
Fitness
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ResultsResults30 years and 360 Generations 30 years and 360 Generations
LaterLaterAbout 150 Generations of About 150 Generations of
SelectionSelection
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Lecture 19 35
Large and Small AdultsLarge and Small Adults
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Lecture 19 36
Large and Small PupaeLarge and Small Pupae
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Lecture 19 37
Large ILarge IOver All FitOver All Fit
b=11.85 mg/Gen
b=4.74 dug/Gen
b=1.28 dug/Gen
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Lecture 19 38
Large I Large I Gen 260Gen 260--360360
b=1.28 dug/Gen
b=4.74 dug/Gen
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Lecture 19 39
Large IILarge IIOverall FitOverall Fit
b=9.26 dug/Gen
b=1.70 dug/Gen
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Lecture 19 40
Large II Large II Generations Generations
260260--360360
b=9.26 dug/Gen
b=1.70 dug/Gen
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Lecture 19 41
Large III Overall FitLarge III Overall Fit
b=11.6 dug/Gen
b=1.6 dug/Gen
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Lecture 19 42
Large IIILarge IIIGenerations Generations
250250--320320
b=1.6 dug/Gen
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Lecture 19 43
Small: Overall Small: Overall FitFit
b= -5.47 dug/Gen
b= -0.85 dug/Gen
b= +0.05 dug/Gen
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Lecture 19 44
Small: Small: Generations 240Generations 240--
360360
b= -0.85 dug/Gen
b= +0.05 dug/Gen
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Lecture 19 45
Plateaus Plateaus • Possible Causes
–Loss of Genetic Variability–Physiological Limits
• Loss of Selection Differential• Loss of Fitness
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Lecture 19 46
Test of Alternative Test of Alternative HypothesisHypothesis
–Loss of Genetic Variability • Reverse Selection
– Observe Response
–Physiological Limit• Loss of Selection Differential
– Examine Change In Selection Differential
• Loss of Fitness – Measure Fitness Related Traits in Direct and
Reverse Selected Lines
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Lecture 19 47
Loss of Genetic Variability?Loss of Genetic Variability?• Reverse Selection
–Applied Generations 340-360 –Same Selection Intensity As In The
Positive Selection –Measured Response
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Lecture 19 48
UpUp--Down Down SelectionSelection
Large LineLarge Line
b=0.09 dug/Gen (ns)
b= - 53.1 dug/Gen (p <.01)
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Lecture 19 49
UpUp--Down Down SelectionSelectionSmall LineSmall Line
b= 0.41 dug/Gen (ns)
b= -0.00 dug/Gen (ns)
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Lecture 19 50
UpUp--Down SelectionDown SelectionControl LineControl Line
b=13.8 dug/Gen (p <.01)
b= -9.2 dug/Gen (p <.01)
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Lecture 19 51
ConclusionsConclusions• Plateau in Small Line Due to Loss of
Genetic Variability • Plateau in Small Line May Also Be
Due to Physiological Limit• Plateau in Large Line Due to
Physiological Limit
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Lecture 19 52
Physiological LimitPhysiological Limit
• Loss of Selection Differential–Examine Change In Selection
Differential As Selection Advances–Selection Differentials Measured
• Generations 200-360• Generations of Sustained Selection
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Lecture 19 53
Selection DifferentialSelection Differential
b= 0.39 dug/gen
b= -0.08 dug/gen
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Lecture 19 54
Relative Selection DifferentialRelative Selection DifferentialRSD=100xSD/Generation RSD=100xSD/Generation
MeanMean
b= +0.00 %/gen (ns)
b= -0.01%/gen (ns)
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Lecture 19 55
ConclusionConclusion• Selection Differential Unaffected by
Selection• Not Cause For Limit
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56
Physiological LimitPhysiological Limit
Loss of Fitness In Loss of Fitness In Direction of Selection?Direction of Selection?
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Lecture 19 57
Physiological LimitsPhysiological Limits• Last Generation (360)
–Large I and Small–Assortatively Mated 1,200 Single Pairs–Measured
• Parental Pupae Weight• Offspring Pupae Weight• Offspring Pupae Number
–Regressed Offspring Number on Parental Weight (Genetic Regression)
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Lecture 19 58
Relationship Between Pupae Relationship Between Pupae Number and Parental WeightNumber and Parental Weight
b=+21 Pupae/mg
b= -4.4 Pupae/mg
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Lecture 19 59
ConclusionConclusion
• Fitness–Positively Correlated With Pupae Wt In
Small Line–Negatively Correlated With Pupae Wt In
Large Line
• Effective Selection Differential Diminishes in Direction of Selection
• Physiological Limits Constrain Further Progress in Either Line
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Lecture 19 60
ConclusionConclusion• Causes For Selection Limit
–Loss of Effective Selection Differential–Due to Negative Correlation with
Fitness In Both Lines–Loss of Genetic Variability in Small Line
• Verified via DNA Finger Prints• No Variability
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Lecture 19 61
Remaining QuestionsRemaining Questions1. True Physiological Limit?
• Refuted by Goliath• Single Gene Mutation For Large• Homozygote Same Size as Large• Cross With Large
– Additive Effect– Doubles Body Size– Is Fertile
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Lecture 19 62
Remaining QuestionsRemaining Questions2. Mechanism For Relationship
Between Pupae Number and Parental Weight Unknown
3. Mutations• What Happened To Mutational
Heritability• Particularly w.r.t. Small Line
• Possibility Rate of Inbreeding?• F > 85% by Termination of Experiment• But Same as For Large Line
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Lecture 19 63
Nature of Selection Limits in Other Nature of Selection Limits in Other Laboratory Experiments (Laboratory Experiments (WLWL ch16)ch16)
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Lecture 19 64
Nature of Selection Limits in Other Nature of Selection Limits in Other Laboratory Experiments (Laboratory Experiments (WLWL ch16)ch16)
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Lecture 19 65
New Mutations and Selection LimitsNew Mutations and Selection Limits
Only helpful if population size large
50% of population selected
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Lecture 19 66
Lab ProblemLab Problem• Chose one of the commodity groups below• Design an optimal breeding program
– What traits to select on– What method of selection would you utilize– How many animals be utilized– How many breeders would be chosen (How
many of each sex would you save)– What mating system would be employed (how
would you determine who mates to whom and how many offspring would be kept per mating ?