Lean Publishing

Peter Armstrong

Is the physicalbook dead?

"It's happening. It not happening in 10 years. It's happening in 5 years."

-Nicholas Negroponte (at Techonomy conference, 2010-08-06)

"Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos predicts that e-book sales will surpass paperback sales within the next 12 months, and combined hardcover and paperback sales soon after that. This despite the

fact that the 600,000 titles in the Kindle bookstore represents only a

fraction of Amazon's inventory."- http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/30/amazon-kindle-economy-environment-opinions-

columnists-reihan-salam.html

That’s NOT themost important

question!

Are publishers dead if/when the

physical book dies?

That’s NOT themost importantquestion either!

Are books dead?

NO!(yay!)

Bookswill outlast

TV networks.

So, what is themost important

question?

How should authors publish their books?

NOT Stieg’s way.

Traditional Publishers?

Self-Publishing?

What are the problems for

AUTHORSof traditionally-

published books?

HorribleRoyalty

Percentage(especially on e-books)

Delay

Irrelevance,Failure andObscurity

Is there a solution?

NO.

There’s no universal solution--some books are

just lousy.

Is there animproved approach

for some authorsand books?

Lean Publishing

1. Manifesto2. Theory3. Practice

Lean Publishing

1. Manifesto

Lean PublishingElevator Pitch

Imagine a worldin which authors

can actuallymake money

writing books...

Imagine a world in which authors can have a meaningful conversation with their readers

about their books. Now imagine if this was possible

before these books were even finished...

Isn't Lean Publishing Just Self-Publishing?

Self-Publishing:A way to publish finished books.

Lean Publishing:A way to

write and publishin-progress books.

Isn't Lean Publishingthe same as the

Beta Books, Rough Cutsor Early Access programs

of certaintraditional publishersof computer books?

A Book is a Startup

1. There are market risks, technical risks

and a very low probability of

success.

2. Both writing a book and creating a

startup are highly creative processes undertaken by one

or a few people working closely

together.

3. Historically it has taken about a year,

often spent in isolation or "stealth mode", to develop

and release the first version.

4. Historically, startups have been funded by VCs and authors have been

funded by publishers, both of

which are hit-driven businesses.

Consequence: It's Very Easy To Create Something Nobody

Wants

Solution: Use Lean Startup Principles

2. Theory

The Lean Startup and Customer

Development

Steve Blank:Customer Development

Eric Ries:Customer Development +

Agile Methodology =The Lean Startup

Open Source Software:

Release Early, Release Often and Listen to

your Customers

Lessons Learned from Lean Startups

Publish Early(Fail Fast)

Publish Often and Listen to Your

Readers

Build a Community of Readers

Lessons Learned from Blogs

Good Blogs areBeta Books

Successful Blogs Build Communities

3. Practice

The Lean Publishing How-To Guide

(Non-Fiction Version)

Step 1:Blog, Tumble

and Tweet to Find Your Voice and Build

an Audience

Step 2:Write the

Minimum Viable Book

Step 3:Start Marketing and

Selling theIn-Progress

Minimum Viable Book

Step 4:Finish the Book with Constant Feedback from your Readers

Step 5:Market and Sell the

Completed Book, Possibly with a

Traditional Publisher

Tangent:Why does Lean

Publishing make so much sense for

technology books?

The Technology Adoption and Information

Distribution Lifecycle

Lean Publishing Is Not Just For

Technical Books

Non-Fiction

Fiction (?)

Case Studies

37signals:Signal vs.

Noise, Getting Real and Rework

Sell the Blog:Startup Lessons

Learnedand

The Venture Hacks Bible

Flexible Rails

(The origin of Lean Publishing,as well as of Ruboss and Leanpub.)

What Does Lean Publising Mean for

Publishers?

Authors will have a better BATNA.

(Sorry.)

Publishers add most value at the

end of a book.

(indexing, copy editing, technical editing, marketing, printing [while that matters],

distribution channels, etc.)

Only the most successful books

need all this; the rest can stay self-

published more profitably.

This will especially be true if/when there are only 3

channels (Kindle, iBooks and PDF) that

matter-- all of which don’t require publishers.

Publishers will take less risk and authors will get a better deal.

This is just like the emerging new dynamic between VCs and founders

of consumer internet companies.

*

*These predictions assume that neither Amazon nor Apple will end up with a total

victory. If either of them do, it’s all over. As long as they are fiercely competing, the

situation is very good for authors (and Leanpub) and tolerable for publishers.

Thanks!

Peter Armstrong