Lean development planning using options thinking
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Transcript of Lean development planning using options thinking
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Lean Planning: Resilient Plans for Complex Environments
Matt Barcomb, odbox
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with Matt Barcomb @mattbarcomb [email protected]
Lean Planning: Resilient Plans for Complex Environments
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(most comfortable) 1. Flow-based roadmaps 2. Options thinking 3. Planning for development
(least comfortable)
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“Focus on everything, and you have not actually focused on anything.”
- Eli Goldratt
“Large queues make it hard to create urgency”
- Don Reinertsen
Flow-based
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Flow-based Systems
Visualize work Pull work
Make explicit policies Limit work in progress
Measure with intent
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Team A
Team B
Starter road map
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Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Visualize work
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Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
Pull work
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Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In Use
Pull work
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Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In UseHBD
Pull work
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Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In UseHBD
Make explicit policies
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Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In UseHBD
1
Limit work in progress
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Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In UseHBD
1222
Limit work in progress
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Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In UseHBD
1222
Measure with intent
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“Long-range planning does not deal with the future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.”
- Peter Drucker
Options-thinking
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Real Options
Execute intentionally
Options are valuable
Options expire
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Customer/Problem Hypothesis:
Questions & Dependencies:
Name:
Org Benefits:
Option Framing
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Option Triggers
Starting or Stopping
- duration - seasonality - stakeholder feedback - govt. policy - major biz activity - competition shift - media/pr event - market shift - technology shift - employee shift - major social incident - better options
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“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
- George Box
Development Planning Models
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Construction
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Research
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Scientific Research
Custom Construction
Complex Manufacturing
Mass Construction
Routine Manufacturing
Enterprise ERP Impl.
Software Product Dev.
Physical Product Dev.
Small ERP Impl.
Spectrum of Uncertainty
Sensing of knowns Response to unknowns
Amount of unknowables
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Benefit
Risk
Cost
Shift Focus
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Product: Galaxy
Expires in March
Benefit Mapping
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Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
Expires in March
Benefit Mapping
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Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec. Mktg
Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
Expires in March
Benefit Mapping
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Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec. Mktg
Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness1
Expires in March
2
3
4
Benefit Mapping
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Sales Reach
Increase Revenue
Decrease Mktg. Costs
Product Adoption
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
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Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
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Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%
1= <$5k 5= >$50k
1= no change 5= very easy
1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.
Options Scores
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
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Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%
1= <$5k 5= >$50k
1= no change 5= very easy
1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.
Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
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Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%
1= <$5k 5= >$50k
1= no change 5= very easy
1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.
Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal
4 2 1 3
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
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Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%
1= <$5k 5= >$50k
1= no change 5= very easy
1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.
Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal
4 2 1 3 285
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
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Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%
1= <$5k 5= >$50k
1= no change 5= very easy
1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.
Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal
43
24
12
31
285295
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
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Activity: Create a B-Map
Your company just got $1B to research medical technology!
Medical Technology
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Activity: Create a B-Map
Mind-map desired benefits (value)
Medical Technology
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Activity: Create a B-Map
Rank the top 3
Medical Technology
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Activity: Create a B-Map
Assign weights
Medical Technology
? % ? % ? %
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Activity: Create a B-Map
Come up with 2 research options
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Activity: Create a B-Map
Score 2 options (use a 1-5 scale)
Medical Technology
? % ? % ? %
Option 1Option 2
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Activity: Create a B-Map
What did you discuss? How did you decide?
Coherence vs. Artifacts
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Risk
Discuss Quantify Amplify 1 2 3
1
2
3
1 2 3
2 4 6
3 6 9
Likelihood
Impa
ct
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Cost
“Learn just enough about cost to decide if its worth it to start.”
- Brief discussion - Rough-order magnitude - Snap to linear scale
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“More effective development planning is achieved through using a flow-based road map
laid out with real options from which we can choose based primarily on the benefits they
provide while considering risks and understanding just enough about cost to get started.”