LCC copper gold report 20140324

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Transcript of LCC copper gold report 20140324

Page 1: LCC copper gold report 20140324

24th March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no ob ligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made

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2013 COPPER MARKET NOT IN SURPLUS Global Economic Fundamentals

Source: Capital IQ, COMEX, LCC, LME, SHFE, Thomson Reuters, WGC

Precious Metals Last Week r 4-Wk r YTD r Base Metals Last Week r 4-Wk r YTD r

Gold (A$/oz) 1,467 ▼ (4.0%) ▼ (1%) ▲ 9% Copper (A$/lb) 3.26 ▲ 0.1% ▼ (11%) ▼ (13%)

Gold (US$/oz) 1,333 ▼ (3.3%) ▲ 1% ▲ 11% Copper (US$/lb) 2.97 ▲ 0.8% ▼ (9%) ▼ (12%)

Silver (US$/oz) 20.3 ▼ (5.2%) ▼ (7%) ▲ 5% Copper (RMB/t) 45,400 ▲ 2.3% ▼ (10%) ▼ (13%)

Platinum (US$/oz) 1,431 ▼ (2.6%) ▲ 0% ▲ 4% Cobalt (US$/lb) 14.06 — 0.0% ▼ (2%) ▲ 5%

Palladium (US$/oz) 791 ▲ 2.3% ▲ 7% ▲ 10% Molybdenum (US$/lb) 10.21 ▼ (2.2%) ▼ (1%) ▲ 5%

Iron Ore (US$/t) 111 — 0.0% ▼ (9%) ▼ (17%) Nickel (US$/lb) 7.25 ▲ 1.2% ▲ 11% ▲ 14%

Crude Oil (US$/barrel) 99 ▲ 0.7% ▼ (2%) ▲ 0% Lead (US$/lb) 0.93 ▲ 2.1% ▼ (5%) ▼ (7%)

Gas H.Hub (US$/m btu) 4.31 ▼ (2.1%) ▼ (14%) ▲ 3% Zinc (US$/lb) 0.89 ▼ (1.9%) ▼ (5%) ▼ (6%)

Uranium (US$/lb) 35 ▼ (0.1%) ▼ (3%) ▲ 1% Tin (US$/lb) 10.43 ▼ (0.4%) ▼ (1%) ▲ 2%

Currencies & Indices Last Week r 4-Wk r YTD r Global Markets Last Week r 4-Wk r YTD r

AUD/USD 0.909 ▲ 0.7% ▲ 1% ▲ 1% ASX 200 5,338 ▲ 0.2% ▼ (2%) ▼ (0%)

RMB/USD 0.161 ▼ (1.2%) ▼ (2%) ▼ (1%) Dow Jones 16,303 ▲ 1.5% ▲ 1% ▼ (2%)

CAD/USD 0.892 ▼ (1.0%) ▼ (1%) ▼ (1%) S&P 500 Index 1,867 ▲ 1.0% ▲ 2% ▼ (0%)

EUR/USD 1.378 ▼ (0.9%) ▲ 0% ▼ (1%) Shang Hai Index 2,048 ▲ 0.4% ▼ (3%) ▼ (3%)

ASX Ordinary Gold 2,383 ▼ (1.9%) ▼ (4%) ▼ (10%) Hang Seng Index 21,437 ▲ 2.2% ▼ (5%) ▼ (3%)

TSX Global Gold 198 — 0.0% ▼ (3%) ▼ (7%) Nikkei 225 14,224 ▼ (0.7%) ▼ (4%) ▼ (13%)

ASX 300 Metals & Mining 3,175 ▼ (9.5%) ▼ (8%) ▼ (1%) FTSE 100 Index 6,557 ▲ 2.8% ▼ (4%) ▲ 1%

TSX Global Mining 74 ▼ (7.2%) ▼ (6%) ▼ (2%) Euro STOXX 50 Index 3,096 ▲ 3.2% ▼ (1%) ▼ (2%)

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Gold Price (US$/oz, RHS)

Gold Demand

Copper Warehouse Stocks

Page 2: LCC copper gold report 20140324

24th March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no ob ligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made

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Markets & Majors

According to the International Copper Study Group preliminary data, the refined copper market balance showed an apparent production surplus of 34,000 tonnes in December, as weak refined usage in major consuming regions offset strong Chinese demand. For full-year 2013, the market had a 193,000 tonne deficit, compared with a shortfall of 266,000 tonnes in the same period a year earlier. This 2013 preliminary deficit compares favourably with Cochilco forecast of a 294,000 tonnes surplus (October 2013) and the analysts forecast of 182,000 tonnes surplus (Reuters survey October 2013).

In 2013 world apparent usage is estimated to have increased by 4% year on year (805,000 t) to 21.2 million tonnes. Chinese apparent demand increased by 7% y/y. World mine production is estimated to have increased by 8% y/y (1.3 million tons) to 18mt in 2013, mainly owing to a recovery in production levels from constrained output in 2012 (3 major world copper mines recovered from production constraints during 2012, accounting for 28% of the world increase in 2013) and, to a lesser extent, to the ramp-up of new mine capacity. Concentrate production increased by 9% (1.2 million tons) and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) by 3.5% (130,000 t). Mine production increased by 6% in Chile (342,000 t), the world’s leading producer, and accounted for 32% of world mine production in 2013. Production also increased in Peru (6%), the United States (5%), Indonesia (28%), Mongolia (61%), the Democratic Republic of Congo (50%) and Zambia (7%).

Reuters - China's refined copper output in the first two months of 2014 rose 6.6% from the same period a year earlier as smelters continued to expand capacity. Total refined copper production stood at 1,056,793 tonnes in January to February, data from the statistics bureau showed.

Reuters - China's large copper smelters have drawn up a plan to jointly boost exports of refined metal in the coming months by three times the contracted volumes in an effort to cope with low domestic prices. Six large smelters, including Jiangxi Copper Company, Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jinchuan Group, have agreed to export a total of about 150,000 tonnes of refined copper per month.

Reuters - Jinchuan Group, China's third-largest copper producer, has declared force majeure on some copper concentrate purchases after a technical problem reduced the use of the raw material. The force majeure will cut Jinchuan's imports of contracted concentrates, which could support processing fees in the global copper concentrate market, as the firm's suppliers resell the shipments. The technical problem would keep Jinchuan from hitting 2014 target output levels of 150,000 tonnes of nickel and about 400,000 tonnes of copper. Jinchuan said in a statement earlier that a system used to produce oxygen had broken down. Such facilities typically supply the furnaces to melt concentrates. The technical problem is expected to reduce Jinchuan's production of copper and nickel for the next three to four months,

about how long it would take to repair the system, said an industry source.

Rio Tinto could face a US$800 million write-down of the Oyu Tolgoi copper gold project if the underground development is further delayed.

The US Geological Survey reported preliminary 2013 US gold mine production at 227 metric tonnes down 8 tonnes from 2012. New and old scrap recycling was also lower at 200 tonnes down 20 tonnes from 2012. The United States are the world’s third largest gold producer after China (420 t), Australia (255 t) and in front of Russia (220 t). South Africa (145 t) is in fifth position behind Peru (150 t). World mine production is estimated at 2,770 tonnes in 2013, 3% more than in 2012.

Copper Explorers & Emerging Producers

Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.90

Copper Producers

Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90

Mergers & Acquisitions

LionGold Corporation has invested A$2.4 million to raise its stake in Unity Mining (ASX: UML).

Code Company NameClose

PriceWeek r YTD r

Market

Cap (A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)EV (A$m)

AVI Avalon Minerals 0.008 — 0% (20% ) 10 2.7 7

AZS Azure Minerals 0.030 ▼ (9% ) 0% 21 2.3 19

BMB Balamara Resources 0.12 — 0% 21% 38 1.2 37

BTR Blackthorn Resources 0.17 ▲ 6% (35% ) 28 16.3 12

BOC Bougainville Copper 0.55 ▼ (4% ) 15% 219 6.2 212

ERM Emmerson Resources 0.039 ▲ 3% (7% ) 10.2 1.2 9

ENR Encounter Resources 0.23 ▼ (8% ) 21% 30 3.9 27

ESR Estrella Resources 0.12 — 0% (31% ) 12 2.0 10

GCR Golden Cross Resources 0.005 — 0% 0% 9 1.1 8

HAV Havilah Resources 0.25 ▲ 4% 0% 30 3.5 27

HCH Hot Chili 0.39 ▼ (10% ) (8% ) 136 8.2 127

HIG Highlands Pacific 0.074 ▲ 1% 21% 63 9.6 54

IRN Indophil Resources 0.18 ▼ (5% ) 6% 211 215.1 (5)

KGL KGL Resources 0.100 ▼ (9% ) (5% ) 14 7.8 6

KDR Kidman Resources 0.115 ▼ (18% ) (38% ) 15 3.7 11

MMC Marengo Mining 0.014 ▼ (7% ) (7% ) 16 4.5 39

MNC Metminco 0.026 ▼ (4% ) (16% ) 45 7.8 38

PEX Peel Mining 0.22 ▼ (12% ) (15% ) 29 3.8 25

RDM Red Metal 0.17 ▼ (8% ) 10% 24 1.1 23

RXM Rex Minerals 0.41 ▲ 6% (15% ) 89 20.9 68

SBR Sabre Resources 0.038 ▼ (12% ) (12% ) 9 4.1 4

SUH Southern Hemisphere 0.054 ▲ 8% 8% 13 0.5 13

TLM Talisman Mining 0.11 ▲ 5% 5% 14 17.3 (3)

VXR Venturex Resources 0.007 ▼ (30% ) (30% ) 11 3.4 7

XAM Xanadu Mines 0.050 ▼ (23% ) 0% 10 2.8 7

YTC YTC Resources 0.24 ▼ (4% ) 4% 79 25.8 118

AVB Avanco Resources 0.067 ▲ 2% (6% ) 91 16.6 74

CDU Cudeco 1.62 ▲ 4% (10% ) 379 47.4 332

FND Finders Resources 0.17 ▲ 3% (19% ) 94 12.9 81

Code Company Name Close Price Week r YTD rMarket

Cap (A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)EV (A$m)

EV/

EBITDA

ABY Aditya Birla Minerals 0.30 ▼ (6% ) (13% ) 92 118 (25) NM

AOH Altona Mining 0.17 ▲ 6% 0% 88 20 79 5.9x

DML Discovery Metals 0.028 ▼ (7% ) (47% ) 16 13 174 NM

HGO Hillgrove Resources 0.085 ▼ (3% ) (6% ) 100 17 128 3.7x

OZL OZ Minerals 3.18 ▼ (8% ) 1% 965 364 601 3.4x

PNA PanAust 1.59 ▼ (0% ) (12% ) 971 145 1,006 4.1x

SFR Sandfire Resources 5.50 ▼ (1% ) (15% ) 856 75 1,011 8.0x

SRQ Straits Resources 0.005 — 0% (38% ) 6 12 116 NM

TGS Tiger Resources 0.36 ▼ (6% ) 4% 289 42 303 4.5x

MWE Mawson West Ltd. C$0.56 ▲ 8% (3% ) 94 56 61 2.0x985 CST Mining Group HK$0.059 ▼ (5% ) (12% ) 227 119 108 NM

Page 3: LCC copper gold report 20140324

24th March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no ob ligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made

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Gold Explorers & Emerging Producers

Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90

ASX-Listed Company News

Aditya Birla Minerals (ASX: ABY) has requested a trading halt due to a possible ground subsidence at the Nifty underground copper mine.

Altona Mining (ASX: AOH) is expected to repay its debt facility of US$10 million in full effective 31 March 2014 thanks to the closure of AOH’s gold hedge book. AOH will have approximately A$16.5 million in cash at 31 March 2014 and will be debt free two years ahead of schedule.

Metminco (ASX: MNC) has updated the economics of the Mollacas SX-EW project in Chile. The production schedule includes 14.5 mt at 0.52% Cu (0.42% Cu soluble) to produce 8,000 tpa copper cathode. Pre-production capital expenditure is estimated at US$47 million and C1 costs at US$1.23/lb Cu. The after-tax NPV8% is evaluated at US$75 million (IRR 37%).

Alkane Resources’ (ASX: ALK) Tomingley gold mine was officially opened last week by NSW Minister for Resources and Energy, Anthony Roberts MP. The gold mine marked commencement of operations on 14 February 2014, when the first gold bar was poured. The operation is anticipated to achieve design capacity by the end of April. Construction of Tomingley began after the mining lease was granted in February 2013, and was completed on time and within the total project budget of A$116 million (including contingencies).

Millennium Minerals (ASX: MOY) has updated the LOM plan for the Nullagine gold project. The plan forecasts mining and processing 9.8mt at an average grade of 1.52 g/t Au to recover 426,000 ounces, at an average metallurgical recovery of 89%. Forecast LOM mine cash flow is estimated at A$171 million, using a spot gold price of US$1,350/oz and an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.90 and the average hedged gold price of A$1,594/oz (for 72,000oz). Project before tax, pre‐debt NPV7% is estimated at A$144 million. Average LOM C1 costs are estimated at A$989/oz and sustaining cash cost of A$1,160/oz. MOY has also put in place a A$7 million subordinated working capital facility. The facility is unsecured and attracts fees and an interest typical for a facility of this nature.

Gold Producers

Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90

Code Company NameClose

PriceWeek r YTD r

Market Cap

(A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)

ABU ABM Resources 0.026 ▲ 4% 18% 85 5.1 80

ALK Alkane Resources 0.29 ▼ (17% ) (16% ) 106 43.3 63

AUK Augur Resources 0.050 — 0% (33% ) 13 2.2 11

AZM Azumah Resources 0.066 ▲ 14% 136% 24 3.3 20

BSR Bassari Resources 0.009 ▲ 13% 13% 9 0.2 9

BAB Bullabulling Gold 0.060 ▲ 9% 33% 21 4.3 16

CHN Chalice Gold 0.15 ▼ (3% ) 11% 45 55.1 (10)

CHZ Chesser Resources 0.14 ▲ 12% 33% 31 4.6 26

CDG Cleveland Mining 0.11 — 0% 5% 25 0.6 25

CVG Convergent Minerals 0.014 ▲ 8% (13% ) 5 0.7 4

CAS Crusader Resources 0.30 ▲ 4% (2% ) 37 2.2 40

DCN Dacian Gold 0.37 — 0% 54% 36 13.2 22

EXG Excelsior Gold 0.084 ▼ (7% ) 22% 35 4.3 29

FMl Focus Minerals 0.02 ▲ 6% 42% 155 81.2 82

GCY Gascoyne Resources 0.14 — 0% 0% 22 1.2 21

GOR Gold Road Resources 0.19 — 0% 87% 84 7.1 77

GRY Gryphon Minerals 0.17 ▼ (6% ) (3% ) 66 41.7 24

IDC Indochine Mining 0.074 ▲ 9% 72% 71 0.5 71

IAU Intrepid Mines 0.28 ▼ (4% ) (13% ) 153 98.2 55

KGD Kula Gold 0.10 ▼ (5% ) (10% ) 12 3.2 9

MSR Manas Resources 0.040 ▼ (11% ) 25% 17 5.6 11

MYG Mutiny Gold 0.030 — 0% (6% ) 18 1.7 23

OBS Orbis Gold 0.32 — 0% 28% 80 5.5 75

ORD Ord Resources 0.00 — 0% (20% ) 5 1.5 3

PAN Panoramic Resources 0.54 ▲ 32% 116% 174 34.0 140

PIR Papillon Resources 1.38 ▼ (5% ) 40% 469 43.6 425

PXG Phoenix Gold 0.15 — 0% (9% ) 35 4.6 30

RED Red 5 0.09 ▲ 3% 2% 68 36.7 32

RNI Resource & Investment 0.080 ▼ (19% ) 51% 25 3.0 37

ROL Robust Resources 0.28 ▲ 2% (20% ) 44 2.5 47

SIH Sihayo Gold 0.026 ▼ (10% ) (13% ) 24 0.5 24

SXG Southern Cross Goldfields 0.015 ▼ (12% ) 15% 13 5.1 15

SUM Sumatra Copper & Gold 0.09 ▼ (2% ) 29% 37 4.0 36

TAM Tanami Gold 0.03 ▼ (13% ) 27% 33 8.8 39

WAF West African Resources 0.15 ▼ (6% ) 7% 37 1.3 36

YTC YTC Resources 0.24 ▼ (4% ) 4% 79 25.8 118

Code Company NameClose

PriceWeek r YTD r

Market

Cap (A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)EV (A$m)

EV/

EBITDA

AQG Alacer Gold 3.03 ▼ (14% ) 33% 914 322 592 3.1x

AGD Austral Gold 0.09 — 0% (25% ) 15 9 67 3.5x

BDR Beadell Resources 0.65 ▼ (14% ) (18% ) 514 24 559 56.4x

BEZ Besra Gold 0.027 — 0% (40% ) 11 1 36 NM

DRM Doray Minerals 0.88 ▼ (12% ) 57% 144 24 169 5.7x

DRA Dragon Mining 0.19 ▼ (3% ) 46% 17 6 11 2.5x

EVN Evolution Mining 0.90 ▼ (7% ) 46% 638 37 743 4.4x

EVR Endeavour Mining Corp 0.87 ▼ (13% ) 79% 388 119 569 NM

IGO Independence Group 4.04 ▲ 1% 30% 943 46 961 11.5x

KCN Kingsgate Consolidated 1.13 ▼ (9% ) 21% 185 37 324 4.0x

KRM Kingsrose Mining 0.37 ▼ (14% ) 10% 133 1 131 NM

LSA Lachlan Star 0.28 ▼ (5% ) 38% 41 3 42 NM

MML Medusa Mining 2.25 ▼ (8% ) 10% 468 23 444 8.6x

MLX Metals X 0.23 ▼ (6% ) 32% 372 50 323 15.3x

MOY Millennium Minerals 0.11 ▼ (19% ) (42% ) 24 5 58 2.0x

MLI Mintails 0.054 — 0% (4% ) 15 4 10 NM

NCM Newcrest Mining 10.55 ▼ (13% ) 35% 8,081 121 12,598 11.9x

NGF Norton Gold Fields 0.13 ▲ 4% (4% ) 121 41 195 2.7x

NST Northern Star Resources 1.23 — 0% 56% 709 49 659 11.6x

OGC OceanaGold Corporation 2.85 ▲ 2% 79% 853 28 1,020 4.2x

PNA PanAust 1.59 ▼ (0% ) (12% ) 971 145 1,006 4.1x

PGI PanTerra Gold 0.046 — 0% 12% 36 5 80 NM

PRU Perseus Mining 0.48 ▼ (2% ) 94% 250 28 222 20.6x

RMS Ramelius Resources 0.13 ▼ (7% ) 29% 46 33 17 1.4x

RRL Regis Resources 2.41 ▼ (6% ) (17% ) 1,204 13 1,201 5.5x

RSG Resolute Mining 0.64 ▼ (9% ) 15% 410 50 454 3.5x

SAR Saracen Mineral Holdings 0.35 ▼ (5% ) 89% 263 23 262 3.2x

SBM St Barbara 0.37 ▼ (6% ) 42% 181 70 441 NM

SLR Silver Lake Resources 0.48 ▲ 3% (11% ) 239 17 230 NM

TBR Tribune Resources 3.14 ▼ (1% ) 35% 158 9 168 3.2x

TGZ Teranga Gold Corp 1.00 ▼ (6% ) 82% 314 39 341 NM

TRY Troy Resources 1.26 ▼ (5% ) 61% 240 18 253 8.8x

UML Unity Mining 0.025 ▼ (22% ) (39% ) 24 10 14 2.1x

VGO Vantage Goldfields 0.028 — 0% 8% 7 1 6 1.7x

ANG AngloGold Ashanti ZAR197 ▼ (6% ) 60% 8,033 725 11,460 6.6x

ABX Barrick Gold Corp C$21.76 ▼ (6% ) 16% 24,885 2,688 38,597 6.4x

CRK Crocodile Gold Corp C$0.25 ▼ (26% ) 104% 117 3 121 1.6x

GFI Goldfields ZAR46 ▼ (0% ) 39% 3,558 358 5,573 5.9x

NEM Newmont Mining Corp US$25 ▼ (6% ) 7% 13,452 1,739 22,289 6.3x

Page 4: LCC copper gold report 20140324

24th March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no ob ligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made

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Australian Gold Producers Cost Curve as at 31 December 2013