Latin American Ports and Transport Infrastructure Challenges FERNANDO SÁNCHEZ-ALBAVERA DIRECTOR...

Latin American Ports and Transport Infrastructure Challenges

FERNANDO SÁNCHEZ-ALBAVERA

DIRECTOR DIVISION OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND INFRASTRUCTURE

ECLAC, UNITED NATIONS

Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005

General ideas Maritime transport has followed the steps of the world economy, the new role

of trade and the new economic geography Maritime transport and logistic, jointly with the communications revolution, are

responsibles for globalization Trade is the driver of economic growth A positive and close relationship exists between infrastructure, transport and

logistic services improvements and the economic growth Changes in the transport industry during the last years have been dramatic and

stabilization will take time Changes in maritime transport depend more and more on the great changes in

the world economy It is necessary to be alert to changes in general macroeconomic conditions The ports in Latin America, as development keys, show a modernization

process with different level of progress and related problems


ECONOMIC REFORM INDEX IN LATIN AMERICAECONOMIC REFORM INDEX IN LATIN AMERICA

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Total Trade reform

Financial reform Capital account reform

Tax reform P rivatisation

TotalReforma financieraReforma tributaria

Reforma comercialReforma de la cuenta capitalesPrivatización


Economic growth in Latin America

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104Crecimiento del PIB Indice del PIB per cápita (1997=100)


International trade in global economic growth

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004f 2005f

Ave

rage

Ann

ual G

row

th (%

)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Mul

tiple

GDP (left) Trade (left) Trade-GDP Multiple (right)


Foreign investments in Latin America (USD Thousands)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

* Excluye los centros financieros


TRADE AGREEMENTSTRADE AGREEMENTS

0

50

100

150

200

194

8

195

1

195

4

195

7

196

0

196

3

196

6

196

9

197

2

197

5

197

8

198

1

198

4

198

7

199

0

199

3

199

6

199

9

200

2

Mundo

Países de ALCGATT

OMC


EXPORTS GROWTH2000 = 100

90

100

110

120

130

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Consumo privado

Consumo público

Exportaciones bienes y servicios

Inversión bruta interna

PIB


TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE AGREEMENTS % of national exports % of national exports

Fuente: CEPAL, Naciones Unidas ACPI: Acuerdos Comerciales Preferenciales intrarregionalesACPE: Acuerdos Comerciales Preferenciales extrarregionalesACP: Acuerdos Comerciales Preferenciales

América Latina y el Caribe (18)

Venezuela

Uruguay

República Dominicana

Perú

Paraguay

Panamá

Nicaragua

México

Honduras

Guatemala

El Salvador

Ecuador

Costa Rica

Colombia

Chile

Brasil

Bolivia

Argentina

ACPI ACPE Sin ACP


EXCHANGE TRADE INDEXBASE 1995=100

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004


Latin America Port Laws & Reforms

Port Laws:

1991: Colombia, Argentina

1992: Brazil, Uruguay

1993: Mexico

1997: Chile, Panama

1999: Paraguay

2000: Colombia

2001: Venezuela

2002: El Salvador

2003: Peru

Franchised or Private Ports:ArgentinaBoliviaBrazil ChileColombiaCubaMexicoPanamaParaguayUruguay

Underlined: Approved laws / partial or no reforms Underlined: No special laws / reforms done


Reform CharacteristicsReformed public ports were transferred to the landlord systemThere are major industrial, specialized, and highly-efficient private portsThere are (new) major highly-efficient private ports of public use when authorized by lawSizable share of foreign capital investments, with exceptionsSome performance and institutional differences can be observed between reformed portsIn many countries, there is no relation among port reforms, transport, and logistics.


Economic vs. port activityBase 1996=100, according to TEUS

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

ChilePanamáUruguayPerúArgentinaPIB Promedio

Panamá, 2003: 338

Según cantidad de TEUs


Economic vs. port activityBase 1996=100, according to MT tr.

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Brasil Chile

Panamá Uruguay

Perú PIB Promedio

Panamá, 2003: 450

Según cantidad de toneladas


Far East; 287,2

Latin America; 225,1

Caribbean/ Central Am.; 177,3

South America; 282,1

Eastern Europe; 355,5

World; 224,9

100,0

130,0

160,0

190,0

220,0

250,0

280,0

310,0

340,0

370,0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Tra

snfe

rred

TE

Us

North America North West Europe South West Europe Far East

South East Asia Mid East Latin America Caribbean/ Central Am.

South America South Asia Eastern Europe World

Port movement index, by regions. Base 2000=100

2001-2004 and forecast to 20092009 / 2004South America 83,7%Far East 68,4%Latin America 63,1%South Asia 58,7%South East Asia 52,3%Eastern Europe 52,2%World 49,0%Caribbean/ Central Am. 41,1%Mid East 37,3%South West Europe 34,3%Africa 30,9%North West Europe 29,8%North America 20,9%Oceania 20,5%

Source: author based on ECLAC and Drewry Shipping Consultant Ltd. info


Comparative efficiency. A growth path.


Productivity changes


Ship size in Latinamerican ports, 1984-2005

Fuente: Ricardo J. Sánchez, CEPAL, sobre la base de informaciones propias, y la gentileza de Doerr, O. y Victor H. Tarántola.

Panamá, No transit

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

Costa Oeste Costa Este


Port depths in Latin America

Sufficient for future needs: 8 Around 42 feet

Mid – situation: 7 Around 39 feet

Sufficient only for current needs:

29 Around 32 feet

Insufficient 7 Around 26 feet

Survey: Main container ports, 17 countries: 51 ports of Latin America, off Caribbean

Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005 Source: R. J. Sánchez and G. Wilmsmeier, CEPAL, DRNI

Logistic and transport infrastructure bottlenecks in Latin America and the Caribbean

Se trata de una aproximación gráfica y no pretende describir con precisión todas y cada una de las insuficiencias específicas

Los límites y los nombres que figuran en este mapa no implican su apoyo o aceptación oficial por las Naciones Unidas


The perspectives for the next years (2006-2007) are positive, with an expected annual growth of 9-10%.

The negative perspectives are associated to oil prices that could continue to increase.

The Far East and China will continue as leaders of higher growth, although ISC will also lead. There are new opportunities for Latin America.

Transport frequency will increase from the Far East to United States through the Panama Canal, resulting in more possibilities of transshipping in Latin America.

The expansion of the Terminals in Panama, Mexico and the Caribbean (Colombia?), within the framework of known merges, will change the patterns of maritime trade in Latin America. The least developed ports must prepare themselves, but more developed must be alert too!

Cargo shippers will have to adopt other negotiation strategies to encounter the above mentioned changes. The relevance of the learning curve.

Pressures on ports will increase both in investment requirements as well as in price discrimination practices.

Some outlooks:


Growth in trade and port traffic remain strong Bigger ships and higher frequency are expected The consolidation process in ports and transport will continue Port development capacity must go ahead of demand

Work ideas


More speed is required in the containers operation, otherwise new bigger ships have no sense.

The main ports of the world are technically prepared for the change …. and Latin America?

The strategic planning process is crucial. All the traffic to all ports? The port congestion is an increasing problem …

what happens to logistic congestion? There are regulatory problems associated to the

maturation and development of port reforms.


Conclusions: In a context with apparently favorable economic and business conditions in the region, with fewer uncertainties as to the demand for the products exported by the region, the port development and related services, especially the logistic, come across both barriers and favorable aspects:

Opportunities: Good trade and macro

prospects in the region Good port development, at

“terminal” level, yet with differences among countries

Higher demand for services due to a sustained increase in both international and intraregional trade

Higher demand for services due to the operating changes in the maritime transport service

Barriers: Current ports vs. future fleet Logistic services not mature The limitations and

insufficiencies of the transport system may restrict trade

Funding problems Instability in local policies for

the provisioning of port services, as well as in investment conditions

Lack of appropriate distribution ports, especially in the Pacific coast


Final thoughts Ports are more important than we thought, and they will

be even more! Can we keep on thinking separately ports from logistic? Do we have time to loose? Which is the temporary difference between trade

evolution and achievements in infrastructure transport, logistics and ports?

Can we risk the “driver” of growth and competitiveness?


Aportes de la CEPAL/DRNI al desarrollo marítimo, portuario y logístico en América Latina y el Caribe Misiones de asistencia técnica a los países y organismos

regionales de integración, al sector público y privado Organización y participación en conferencias, seminarios y

reuniones de expertos BIENIO 2004/2005: 42 misiones Colaboraciones con organismos especializados: IIRSA,

CIP/OEA, AAPA (American Association of Port Authorities), OMI, PIANC (International Navigation Association), IAME (International Association of Maritime Economists), etc.

Estudios y publicaciones


Estudios: Series DRNI (1) Medidas de productividad para la industria portuaria. Aplicación en América Latina

y el Caribe Octavio Doerr Núñez y Ricardo J. Sánchez, dic. del 2005. Hacia un desarrollo sustentable e integrado de la Amazonía, Pedro Bara Nieto,

Ricardo J. Sánchez, Gordon Wilmsmeier, noviembre del 2005. Infraestructura y servicios de transporte ferroviario vinculados a las vías de

navegación fluvial en América del Sur, Gordon Wilmsmeier, nov. del 2005 Ciudades puerto en la economía globalizada: alcances teóricos de la arquitectura

organizacional de los flujos portuarios, José Granda, noviembre del 2005. Bridging infrastructural gaps in Central America: prospects and potential for

maritime transport, Ricardo J. Sánchez and Gordon Wilmsmeier, September, 2005. Provisión de infraestructura de transporte en América Latina: experiencia reciente y

problemas observados, Ricardo J. Sánchez y Gordon Wilmsmeier, agosto del 2005. El desarrollo productivo basado en la explotación de los recursos naturales,

Fernando Sánchez Albavera, diciembre del 2004. Puertos y transporte marítimo en América Latina y el Caribe: un análisis de su

desempeño reciente, Ricardo J. Sánchez, noviembre del 2004.


Protección marítima y portuaria en América del Sur, Ricardo J. Sánchez, Rodrigo García, Martín Sgut y otros, noviembre del 2004

Concesiones viales en América Latina: situación actual y perspectivas, Alberto Bull, septiembre del 2004.

Desarrollo de infraestrucutura y crecimiento económico: revisión conceptual, Patricio Rozas y Ricardo Sánchez, agosto del 2004.

Comercio entre los países de América del Sur y los países de la Comunidad del Caribe (CARICOM): el papel que desempeñan los servicios de transporte, Ricardo Sánchez y Myriam Echeverría, noviembre del 2003.

El pago por el uso de la infraestructura de transporte vial, ferroviario y portuario, concesionada al sector privado, Ricardo Sánchez, noviembre del 2003.

Acceso a la información: una tarea pendiente para la regulación latinoamericana, Andrei Jouravlev, agosto del 2003.

Identificación de obstáculos al transporte terrestre internacional de cargas en el Mercosur, Ricardo J. Sánchez y Georgina Cipoletta Tomasian, mayo del 2003.

Estudios: Series DRNI (2)


Estudios: Series DRNI (3). En proceso

Las regulaciones de seguridad en puertos y buques, un año después del Código PBIP de la OMI. Costos y desempeño actual.

El impacto de las regulaciones bilaterales de seguridad portuaria en las negociaciones de los Tratados de Libre Comercio.

Productividad en la industria portuaria. Segunda parte.

Puertos y transporte marítimo en América Latina y el Caribe, versión 2005.


Boletines FAL

Nº 228 Agosto/2005 El ciclo marítimo y las tendencias de la industria en América Latina Nº 227 Julio/2005

Las medidas de protección portuaria: Un año después del código de protección de buques e instalaciones portuarias (PBIP) Nº 227 Julio/2005

Port Security Measures: One Year after the Entry into Force of the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS Code)

Nº 224 Abril/2005 Costos de transporte como barreras al comercio internacional de bienes agrícolas No.223 March/2005 Tourist Cruise Ships and the Trade in Services: Recent Trends in Countries of the Caribbean Basin Nº 223 Marzo/2005

Los cruceros turísticos y el comercio de servicios: tendencias recientes en los países de la Cuenca del Caribe No.221 January/2005 Recent increases in shipping costs and their impact on exports from Latin America Nº 221 Enero/2005

Los recientes aumentos en el costo del transporte marítimo y sus efectos sobre las exportaciones de América Latina No.216 August/2004 Maritime and port security in South America: implementation costs Nº 216 Agosto/2004 Protección marítima y portuaria en Sudamérica: los costos de implementación No.215 July/2004 Maritime and port security in South America: the situation in mid-2004 Nº 215 Julio/2004 Protección marítima y portuaria en Sudamérica: la situación a mediados del 2004 No. 213 May/2004 Ocean freight, shipbuilding costs and charter rates: recent trends Nº 213 Mayo/2004 Fletes marítimos, precios de construcción y arriendo de buques: sus cambios recientes No. 207 November/2003 Infrastructure, transport and production development in an agricultural region: a case in Argentina. Nº 207 Noviembre/2003 Infraestructura, transporte y desarrollo productivo de una región agrícola: un caso de Argentina

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Thank you very much…

Fernando Sánchez-AlbaveraDirector

Division of Natural Resources and Infrastructure

ECLAC/UN

+56 2 210 [email protected]

Latin American Ports and Transport Infrastructure Challenges FERNANDO SÁNCHEZ-ALBAVERA DIRECTOR...

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