Las Vegas - March 27, 28 & 29, 2011 Adriano Dias Maciel.

Las Vegas - March 27, 28 & 29, 2011

Adriano Dias Maciel

Oil Futures are traded on the NYMEX Oil Futures are traded on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange)(New York Mercantile Exchange)

Pit TradingPit Trading• Monday through Friday from 9:00 AM to 2:30 PM ESTMonday through Friday from 9:00 AM to 2:30 PM EST

Electronic TradingElectronic Trading• 6:00 PM through 5:15 PM daily, Sunday through Friday6:00 PM through 5:15 PM daily, Sunday through Friday

Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011 22www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.com

Most important hoursMost important hours

• Open of Pit Session – 9:00 AM ESTOpen of Pit Session – 9:00 AM EST

• London Session Close – 11:30 AM EST London Session Close – 11:30 AM EST (Attention for changes during the year – changes March 27(Attention for changes during the year – changes March 27 th – th –

European Daylight Savings Time begins.)European Daylight Savings Time begins.)

• Economic Data Release Economic Data Release (http://www.forexfactory.com/)(http://www.forexfactory.com/)


Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011 www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.com 44

Important hoursImportant hours• Weekly US Crude Oil Inventories by EIAWeekly US Crude Oil Inventories by EIA

Usually, it is released on Wednesdays at 10:30 AM.Usually, it is released on Wednesdays at 10:30 AM.

If any Bank Holiday occurs during the week, the data will be If any Bank Holiday occurs during the week, the data will be released on Thursday at 11:00 AM. released on Thursday at 11:00 AM.

Attention to API US Crude Oil Inventories, released one day Attention to API US Crude Oil Inventories, released one day prior to the EIA release, at 4:30 PM.prior to the EIA release, at 4:30 PM.



Understanding Futures SymbolsUnderstanding Futures Symbols

Future (2 letters)Future (2 letters) Month of ExpirationMonth of Expiration Year of expiration (last number)Year of expiration (last number)

CL K 1CL K 1

NG F 2NG F 2

• There are 12 Crude Oil contracts in a year, one for each There are 12 Crude Oil contracts in a year, one for each month. month.



Which Contract to trade? Which Contract to trade?

• We are going to trade the front month We are going to trade the front month contract.contract.

• Near the 20Near the 20thth of each month, we change the of each month, we change the contract to the next month, based on higher contract to the next month, based on higher volume. (Rollover)volume. (Rollover)

• We begin monitoring which contract has the We begin monitoring which contract has the most volume on the 17most volume on the 17thth of each month. of each month.



Example:Example:

• We are in March and trading the May contract We are in March and trading the May contract (CL K1). We will keep trading this contract (CL K1). We will keep trading this contract until the next rollover (near the 20until the next rollover (near the 20 thth) and then ) and then we will change to trading the June Contract we will change to trading the June Contract (CL M1).(CL M1).



Intraday RangeIntraday Range• Usually, Crude Oil has a range of 200-300 Usually, Crude Oil has a range of 200-300

ticks each day.ticks each day. What is a Tick?What is a Tick?

• Minimum variation of prices in futures (equal Minimum variation of prices in futures (equal to 1 cent).to 1 cent).

• Each Tick represents $10 per contract.Each Tick represents $10 per contract.• If you BUY 1 contract at 102.40 and SELL at If you BUY 1 contract at 102.40 and SELL at

102.41, then you will have a $10 gross profit.102.41, then you will have a $10 gross profit.



Advantages to trading futures (Crude Oil)Advantages to trading futures (Crude Oil)

• With $5,000 it is possible to open an account.With $5,000 it is possible to open an account.• High Leverage (can also be a disadvantage).High Leverage (can also be a disadvantage).• This market is very liquid, spreads are very This market is very liquid, spreads are very

tight, normally avoiding bad fills.tight, normally avoiding bad fills.• The focus will be on one or two instruments.The focus will be on one or two instruments.• Only 1 screen needed.Only 1 screen needed.



Advantages to trading futures (crude oil) Advantages to trading futures (crude oil)

• No ECN Decisions. Fills are executed by price No ECN Decisions. Fills are executed by price and time placed only.and time placed only.

• Most brokers offer charting software for free.Most brokers offer charting software for free.• Small commissions are charged compared to Small commissions are charged compared to

other investments.other investments.• A short is available at all times. There are no A short is available at all times. There are no

locate or uptick rules.locate or uptick rules.



Margins & CommissionsMargins & Commissions

• The margin for Crude Oil and other futures The margin for Crude Oil and other futures varies from broker to broker.varies from broker to broker.

• High Volume Traders can negotiate lower High Volume Traders can negotiate lower commission prices with their broker.commission prices with their broker.

• It is possible to find a broker with a $1,000 It is possible to find a broker with a $1,000 intraday margin requirement for Crude Oil that intraday margin requirement for Crude Oil that charges less than $6.00 Round Trip per charges less than $6.00 Round Trip per contract, all fees included.contract, all fees included.



TransAct UsersTransAct Users

• TransAct offers a CME Group waiver fee for TransAct offers a CME Group waiver fee for their eSignal clients.their eSignal clients.

• The user has free access to the feed for The user has free access to the feed for NYMEX traded futures (including CL and NG NYMEX traded futures (including CL and NG contracts).contracts).

• Users can save $93 each monthUsers can save $93 each month


TransActTransActSteven SweetSteven SweetZaner GroupZaner GroupToll Free Direct: 888-434-8142Toll Free Direct: 888-434-8142Direct: 312-277-0109Direct: 312-277-0109E-Mail: E-Mail: [email protected] [email protected]

Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011 1313www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.com

RealtickRealtickJames BohrerJames BohrerLightspeed TradingLightspeed TradingToll Free Direct: 1 800 228 4216 ext 3629Toll Free Direct: 1 800 228 4216 ext 3629Direct: 312 827 3629Direct: 312 827 3629E-Mail: E-Mail: [email protected] [email protected]

Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011 1414www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.com

Underlying forces behind price and Underlying forces behind price and areas of Support and Resistanceareas of Support and Resistance

As we analyze charts, we need to remember the underlying forces that create and cause them to work in a predictable fashion. As we analyze charts, we need to remember the underlying forces that create and cause them to work in a predictable fashion.

To understand this better, it’s helpful to consider all market participants at any given time. We can divide these participants into three categories: To understand this better, it’s helpful to consider all market participants at any given time. We can divide these participants into three categories:

The undecided: Those who are watching and have not yet decided when and on what side they should enter.The undecided: Those who are watching and have not yet decided when and on what side they should enter.

The longs: Those who have purchased the stock betting on the price to go higher.The longs: Those who have purchased the stock betting on the price to go higher.

The shorts: Those who have sold the stock betting on the price to go lower.The shorts: Those who have sold the stock betting on the price to go lower.

We consider an area of support and resistance where prices have been fluctuating. The longer amount of time that the prices have stayed in the area, the more significant that We consider an area of support and resistance where prices have been fluctuating. The longer amount of time that the prices have stayed in the area, the more significant that support and resistance becomes. To understand this point, let’s consider that the market begins to move higher from a support area and the effect this would have on our three support and resistance becomes. To understand this point, let’s consider that the market begins to move higher from a support area and the effect this would have on our three market participants described above.market participants described above.

www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.comLas Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011 1515www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.com

The longs that bought around the support area are naturally excited and most likely regret not buying The longs that bought around the support area are naturally excited and most likely regret not buying even more; there is a very good chance that they would buy more the next time the market even more; there is a very good chance that they would buy more the next time the market presents them with the opportunity by going back down to the support area. presents them with the opportunity by going back down to the support area.

The shorts that sold at the support area are losing money and are very nervous. They are hoping and The shorts that sold at the support area are losing money and are very nervous. They are hoping and waiting for a pull-back to the area where they bought so they can get out of their positions even. waiting for a pull-back to the area where they bought so they can get out of their positions even.

The third group that’s sitting on the sidelines watching all of this are kicking themselves for not getting The third group that’s sitting on the sidelines watching all of this are kicking themselves for not getting in the action in the support area when they had the opportunity and are hoping for a dip back to in the action in the support area when they had the opportunity and are hoping for a dip back to that area so they could get in. As you can see, what makes the support area such a powerful tool in that area so they could get in. As you can see, what makes the support area such a powerful tool in chart analysis is that human psychology dictates that all of our three market participants are chart analysis is that human psychology dictates that all of our three market participants are resolved to buy at the next dip to the support area. Naturally, this tendency of all our market resolved to buy at the next dip to the support area. Naturally, this tendency of all our market participants to buy if the prices decline to the support area will help to push the price back up again.participants to buy if the prices decline to the support area will help to push the price back up again.

It should also be clear the more market participants that have a vested interest in a particular support It should also be clear the more market participants that have a vested interest in a particular support area, the more likely that it will hold and the higher the prices are likely to go on the next rise as area, the more likely that it will hold and the higher the prices are likely to go on the next rise as there will be more people buying in the dip to the support area. This is exactly the reason that the there will be more people buying in the dip to the support area. This is exactly the reason that the longer that the prices stay in the support or resistance area, the more meaningful it becomes.longer that the prices stay in the support or resistance area, the more meaningful it becomes.

The other two factors that add to the significance of support and resistance are volume and when the The other two factors that add to the significance of support and resistance are volume and when the trading took place. High volume, of course, is important because it shows a high number of shares trading took place. High volume, of course, is important because it shows a high number of shares have been exchanged in that area which indicates more vested interest and as a result the have been exchanged in that area which indicates more vested interest and as a result the tendency for more buying at any pull-back to the support area.tendency for more buying at any pull-back to the support area.

www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.comLas Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011 1616www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.com

The examples that we have considered have discussed the support side. However, the psychology The examples that we have considered have discussed the support side. However, the psychology applies to the resistance side just as well but in the reverse. Let’s consider that prices move lower applies to the resistance side just as well but in the reverse. Let’s consider that prices move lower from the area where they have fluctuated for some time. Now, that area becomes a resistance area, from the area where they have fluctuated for some time. Now, that area becomes a resistance area, even if at some point in time the same area could have served as a support area. even if at some point in time the same area could have served as a support area.

All the market participants that may have bought at the support area are now losing money and All the market participants that may have bought at the support area are now losing money and regretting their decision. They’re praying for the opportunity to sell their shares without losing regretting their decision. They’re praying for the opportunity to sell their shares without losing money. Any price increase back to the support area will give the participants that opportunity to sell money. Any price increase back to the support area will give the participants that opportunity to sell and break even. As a result, if the price does go back up to the previous support, this massive and break even. As a result, if the price does go back up to the previous support, this massive selling from the market participants will cause the price to go back down again. selling from the market participants will cause the price to go back down again.

Ironically, the previous support has now become resistance, and the more significant that the Ironically, the previous support has now become resistance, and the more significant that the support had been the more meaningful the resistance is going to be.support had been the more meaningful the resistance is going to be.

www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.comLas Vegas March 27-29, 2011Las Vegas March 27-29, 2011 1717www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.com

www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.com

Morning Routine (Stocks)Morning Routine (Stocks)

•Review major news stories (Briefing Trader).Review major news stories (Briefing Trader).•Review expected news releases for each day (Trade the News).Review expected news releases for each day (Trade the News).•Check the major indices overnight action and change, then check stocks Check the major indices overnight action and change, then check stocks

that are gapping up or down, based on news or just because they are that are gapping up or down, based on news or just because they are following these indices…with that, make 4 lists - one for stocks gapping following these indices…with that, make 4 lists - one for stocks gapping up and down due to news and one for gappers up and down with no news up and down due to news and one for gappers up and down with no news --- in this case, make sure the stock is not moving in sympathy with a --- in this case, make sure the stock is not moving in sympathy with a competitor.competitor.



Morning Routine (Futures)Morning Routine (Futures)

•Check overnight volatility and areas of support and resistance, make Check overnight volatility and areas of support and resistance, make notes and set alerts in my charts for these areas.notes and set alerts in my charts for these areas.

•Check volume – consider waiting for the volume to reach at least 30,000 Check volume – consider waiting for the volume to reach at least 30,000 contracts in the Crude Oil (CL), before entering the first trade.contracts in the Crude Oil (CL), before entering the first trade.

•Check the economic calendar for announcements that will create Check the economic calendar for announcements that will create volatility.volatility.



Indicators Indicators (Stocks and Futures)(Stocks and Futures)

•8 and 20 SMA, 50 EMA, 200 S & EMA (add 100 SMA to the Daily chart)8 and 20 SMA, 50 EMA, 200 S & EMA (add 100 SMA to the Daily chart)•VWAPVWAP•Previous day High, Low and Close lines and today’s Opening price line Previous day High, Low and Close lines and today’s Opening price line (not to be used in the Daily chart)(not to be used in the Daily chart)•Pivot linesPivot lines•CCI (28)CCI (28)•Multiple Chart time frames (1 min x 2 days / 30 min x 10 days / Daily Multiple Chart time frames (1 min x 2 days / 30 min x 10 days / Daily 1000 days)1000 days)•Stochastics (14, (14), 7) and VolumeStochastics (14, (14), 7) and Volume•Trend Hunter Trend Hunter ******•Trend line identification (I use Regression Lines) Trend line identification (I use Regression Lines) ******•Distribution Lines (not on the Daily Chart) Distribution Lines (not on the Daily Chart) ******•Heat Gauge (measures volatility and market action over the volume, not Heat Gauge (measures volatility and market action over the volume, not to be used in the Daily chart) to be used in the Daily chart) ****** ******customized indicatorscustomized indicators



Indicators Colors Indicators Colors (Stocks and Futures)(Stocks and Futures)

•8 sma - Red 8 sma - Red •20 sma - Dark gray20 sma - Dark gray•50 EMA - Orange50 EMA - Orange•100 SMA - Blue100 SMA - Blue•200 SMA - Dotted red200 SMA - Dotted red•200 EMA - Dotted Black200 EMA - Dotted Black•VWAP - BlueVWAP - Blue•Open Price (Current session) - BlueOpen Price (Current session) - Blue•High (Previous day) - GreenHigh (Previous day) - Green•Low (Previous day) - RedLow (Previous day) - Red•Close (Previous day) - OrangeClose (Previous day) - Orange•Pivot lines - PurplePivot lines - Purple•CCI (28) - BlueCCI (28) - Blue



Alerts Alerts (sounds)(sounds)

•Volume AccelerationVolume Acceleration•Daily eventsDaily events

Market OpenMarket Open Closing of London SessionClosing of London Session Closing of US SessionClosing of US Session

•4 Hits4 Hits•Price SpikesPrice Spikes

(These alerts are all customized)(These alerts are all customized)


March 27, 28 & 29, 2011March 27, 28 & 29, 2011 www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.com 2424

Blue Line – Today`s OpenBlue Line – Today`s Open

Red Line – Previous Day`s LowRed Line – Previous Day`s Low

Green Line – Previous Day`s HighGreen Line – Previous Day`s High

Orange Line – Previous Day`s CloseOrange Line – Previous Day`s Close

March 27, 28 & 29, 2011March 27, 28 & 29, 2011 www.TradeStocksAmerica.comwww.TradeStocksAmerica.com 2525


ADM playback 2.mp4

Las Vegas - March 27, 28 & 29, 2011 Adriano Dias Maciel.

Documents

Transcript of Las Vegas - March 27, 28 & 29, 2011 Adriano Dias Maciel.