Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming

8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming

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Vestas Central Europe

A new Future of the Sea? A Take on theRisk associated with Offshore Wind Farming

Marcus Lange1, Kira Gee2, Andreas Kannen2 &

Benjamin Burkhard3

1 LOICZ IPO at GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht,2 GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht,3 Ecology Centre at Kiel University, Germany

Zukunft Kste Coastal Futures

Zukunft Kste Coastal Futures

Ecology Centre at Kiel University FTZ Westcoast Buesum


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September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK

LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum

Drivers of change

Reduction of CO2emissions,

Generation of additionalemployment.

DPA

Main pillar of Offshore Wind

future renewable = > Farming

energy supply

National Action Plan forRenewables (Sept 09)

Target:

Continous increase in share ofrenewable energies inelectricity consumption (30 %by 2030).


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Drivers of change

Offshore Wind Farming - Capacity

Source: Burkhard2009

25.564 MW(4,5 MW pro Anlage)

Construction

Phase Potential Capacity

2010 2030 20.000 25.000 MW

Source: Germannational strategyfortheuseof

offshore windpower (2002; 2009)


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Marine polyculture + Offshore Wind Energy

- Offshore Wind Farming

- Fishery

- Marine Protected Areas

- Tourism

- Oil Extraction

- Coastal & Island Defense

- Shipping

and many more

Source: BSHCONTIS InformationSystem (2010), www.bsh.de


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Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea

GEWIND


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WWF-Canon/MichelGunther

GEWIND


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GEWIND

MCA, GB

GEWIND



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BildJournal 19.12.2003

GEWIND

Crazy! Giant wind mills in

front of the Baltic coast


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Lange

GEWIND

Crazy Giant wind mills

in front of the Baltic coast


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Lange Lange

GEWIND

Crazy Giant wind mills

in front of the Baltic coast


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September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UKLITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at Kiel

University FTZ Westcoast Buesum

Uncertainty factors of risk analysis

Coastal and

Marine system

Major unknowns and uncertainties are shaped by dynamics of

the coastal and marine system that are difficult or not to predict;

Lack of data No realtime data for the impacts of large scale offshore

windfarms exist (because only one farm in the German North

Sea is in operation so far);

Politics and

Economy

The expansion of developments depends on the political will and

investor support;

Individualdimension

Individual perceptions of risk shape the level of acceptance;Dynamics and consequences of human intervention can be

interpreted differently.


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The Coastal Futures approach a view of the whole

In the sea

Above sea

On land

Kannen, Lange & Burkhard


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Distribution of divers in the German North Sea

Garthe & Mendel (2010)


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Human activities and distribution of divers

Affected individuals

Cumulative: 4.168 ind.

OWF: 1.450 ind.

Shipping traffic: 2.718 ind.

National population *

National 18.500 ind.

Average:

*Source: Gartheetal. (2007);

Garthe & Mendel (2010)

1 = sehr dafr 2 = eher dafr 3 = keine Meinung 4 = eher dagegen 5 =


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Perceived risks

1 = sehr dafr, 2 = eher dafr, 3 = keine Meinung, 4 = eher dagegen, 5 =

dagegen

15%

30%

11%

26%

18%

44 %

against

in favour

(with confinements)

in favour

neutral /

nopositionStatements:

Offshore wind farms upsetnatureandanimals, nevermindthevisual

impacts.

Disappearanceofthelastremainingporpoises, pollution, evenmoredeadbirds, dangerof shippingaccidents andoil spills.

Results of a surveyof local residents(West Coast)


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Perceived risks and benefits

Category

Frequency

(% of allarguments)

Main arguments against offshore wind

Aesthetics oflandscapeand seascape 21.8

Natureconservation 15.1

Emotional arguments 7.6Shippingsafety 3.6

Main arguments in favourof offshore wind

regenerative/clean formofenergygeneration 23.3

Employmentintheregion 5.2

Climatechange 0.2Main unertainties with respect to offshore wind (undecided respondents)

Technological feasibility 4.6

Economic feasibility 4.4


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Person

Years(

2000)

Sc

o

Scenrio 'Little Implementation' 'Modest Implementation' ' igh Implementation

Cumulated employment effects of offshore wind energy in the 'West Coast' region of S until 2030

assuming a maximum regional share of the wind energy value chain

I

v

m

w

y O& w

y I

com

m l pl

w

Co

o

l

l

c c y

pl c

I

com

m l pl

co

v.

l

c c y Co

mp o

c

I

com

m l pl

co

mp o

N

c

R o l co om c c

2.000 MWinstalled Offshore Wind

Power capacity

Source: Hohmeyer (2010)

15. 000 MW

25. 000 MW

Cumulated employment effects of offshore wind energy in the West Coast region of Germany

until 2030 assuming a maximum regional share of the wind energy value chain.


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Regional economic effects

Just anchoring parts of the value chain in the region can lead to positive

employment effects;

The greatest risk from an economic perspective for the West Coast is to not

make use of the opportunity presented by offshore wind;

Targeted oriented policy (local, regional)

is required to reduce uncertainties for

investors, as well as decidedness in

planning to reduce delays.

REpowerSystems


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Comprehensive risk analysis

as an essential task for science


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Conclusions

We came to the conclusion that we need to apply a systemic approach to assess thecomplex risks associated with Offshore Wind Farming.

Licensing of offshore wind parks should therefore be made on the basis of a multi-

perspective analysis of risk based on an assumption of all planed wind farm projects.

A comprehensive risk analysis helps to overcome problems arising from uncertainties

in many parts of the Social-ecological coastal system - Offshore Wind Power.

If we want to increase acceptance of Offshore Wind Farming, we need to reduce

personal uncertainties of local residents (by increasing the knowledge base) but also

take seriously the concerns and values of stakeholders.

The Coastal Futures approach has the potential to strengthen the information base for

decision making in the context of ICZM and Marine Spatial Planning.


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Thanks for your Attention !

REpower Systems AG

Synthesis Report

Lange, M., Burkhard, B., Garthe, S., Gee, K.,

Kannen, A., Lenhart, H. & Windhorst, W.

(2010):

Analyzing Coastal and Marine Changes:

Offshore Wind Farming as a Case Study.

Zukunft Kste - Coastal Futures Synthesis

Report. LOICZ Research & Studies No. 36.

GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, 212 pp.

www.loicz.org


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Thanks for your Attention !

www.coastal-futures.org

REpower Systems AG

Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming

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