Lampiran Hymos

7/26/2019 Lampiran Hymos

1/18

Adapun hasil perhitungan dari program Hymos seperti dibawah ini :

a. Distribusi Gumbel :

Series code = 0001 PNFirst year = 1992

Last year = 2003

Actual values are used

Fitting the Extree !y"e 1 or #u$el distri$ution %unction

Series code 0001 PN

&ethod o% oents is used

Nu$er o% data = 1''Scale "ar( $eta = 11()3)

Location "ar( x0 = 2)()*2

Nr o% "araeters = 2

Nr(+year o$servation o$s(%re,( theor(%re,(" return-"er( st(dev(x" st(dev("

*. 3()00 (00'. (0011 1(00 2(111' (

001'

20 *('00 (011. (00)2 1(01 1(.9'* (

00')

)3 .()00 (01./ (012' 1(01 1(/'3. (

00.2

130 11('00 (02)* (0329 1(03 1()'/1 (

01)1

32 11()00 (032) (0339 1(0' 1()'0* (01)3

91 12(100 (039) (0'03 1(0' 1()022 (

01*.

90 12()00 (0'*' (0''9 1(0) 1('//0 (

01/.

/ 12()00 (0)33 (0''9 1(0) 1('//0 (

01/.

/. 12(*00 (0*02 (0'*1 1(0) 1('/0. (

01.1

103 12(/00 (0*/2 (0'/' 1(0) 1('*'* (

01.3

') 12(.00 (0/'1 (0'.* 1(0) 1(').) (

01.*

112 13(.00 (0.10 (0*2) 1(0/ 1(39.3 (

0210

/3 1'(200 (0..0 (0*./ 1(0/ 1(3/)0 (

0219

12/ 1'(300 (09'9 (0/03 1(0. 1(3*93 (

0222

/1 1)(100 (101. (0.'0 1(09 1(32') (

0239

21 1)(100 (10./ (0.'0 1(09 1(32') (

0239

.9 1)('00 (11)/ (0.9) 1(10 1(30.3 (

02')

19 1*(300 (122* (10/3 1(12 1(2*1. (

02*2


2/18

129 1*(.00 (129) (11.0 1(13 1(23/3 (

02/0

** 1*(.00 (13*' (11.0 1(13 1(23/3 (

02/0

)* 1/(100 (1'3' (12'* 1(1' 1(2231 (

02/)

'3 1/(200 (1)03 (12*9 1(1) 1(21.) (

02//

122 1/(300 (1)/2 (1292 1(1) 1(2139 (02/.

9) 1/('00 (1*'1 (131) 1(1) 1(2093 (

02.0

102 1/(.00 (1/11 (1'09 1(1* 1(191* (

02.)

)0 1.(200 (1/.0 (1)0* 1(1. 1(1/'/ (

0290

3) 1.('00 (1.'9 (1))* 1(1. 1(1**) (

0293

10 1.()00 (191. (1).1 1(19 1(1*2) (

029'

*/ 1.(*00 (19.. (1*0* 1(19 1(1).* (

029)

10/ 19(200 (20)/ (1/*2 1(21 1(13*0 (

0301

. 19(300 (212* (1/.9 1(22 1(132' (

0302 99 19('00 (219) (1.1* 1(22 1(12.9 (

0303

.. 19(*00 (22*) (1./0 1(23 1(1220 (

030)

'' 19(*00 (233' (1./0 1(23 1(1220 (

030)

// 20(000 (2'03 (19.0 1(2) 1(1090 (

030.

11/ 20(300 (2'/2 (20*' 1(2* 1(0999 (

0311

'/ 20(/00 (2)'2 (21/. 1(2. 1(0..) (

0313

/) 20(.00 (2*11 (220/ 1(2. 1(0.)9 (

031'

3. 21(000 (2*.0 (22*) 1(29 1(0.0/ (

031)

1/ 21('00 (2/'9 (23.2 1(31 1(0/12 (031/

33 21(/00 (2.19 (2'/2 1(33 1(0*'/ (

0319

31 21(900 (2... (2)32 1(3' 1(0*0. (

0320

119 22()00 (29)/ (2/1' 1(3/ 1(0)0) (

0322

1'0 22()00 (302* (2/1' 1(3/ 1(0)0) (

0322

9 22(.00 (309* (2.0/ 1(39 1(0'*' (

0323

101 23(000 (31*) (2.*9 1('0 1(0'39 (

032'

/* 23(200 (323' (2931 1('1 1(0'1. (

032)

111 23(300 (3303 (29*2 1('2 1(0'09 (

032) * 23()00 (33/3 (302) 1('3 1(0392 (

032*

9* 23(*00 (3''2 (30)* 1('' 1(03.' (

032*

.0 2'(000 (3)11 (31.2 1('/ 1(03*2 (

032/

13) 2'('00 (3).0 (3309 1('9 1(03)1 (

032.

13. 2'(900 (3*)0 (3'*. 1()3 1(03)) (

0330

9. 2'(900 (3/19 (3'*. 1()3 1(03)) (


3/18

0330

121 2)(100 (3/.. (3)32 1()) 1(03*1 (

0330

'1 2)(100 (3.)/ (3)32 1()) 1(03*1 (

0330

92 2)(300 (392/ (3)9) 1()* 1(03/1 (

0331

30 2)(*00 (399* (3*91 1()9 1(0391 (

0331 *) 2)(900 ('0*) (3/./ 1(*1 1(0'1/ (

0332

12. 2*(000 ('13' (3.1. 1(*2 1(0'2/ (

0332

)9 2*(*00 ('20' ('009 1(*/ 1(0)0' (

033'

.1 2*(*00 ('2/3 ('009 1(*/ 1(0)0' (

033'

13/ 2*(/00 ('3'2 ('0'1 1(*. 1(0)19 (

033'

./ 2*(/00 (''11 ('0'1 1(*. 1(0)19 (

033'

*2 2/(.00 (''.1 ('3.. 1(/. 1(0/32 (

033*

10) 2.(300 ('))0 (')'' 1(.3 1(0.)* (

033/

3* 2.('00 ('*19 (')/) 1(.' 1(0..2 (033/

131 2.(*00 ('*.. ('*3/ 1(.* 1(093/ (

033.

39 29(*00 ('/). ('9'3 1(9. 1(12)0 (

03'0

11) 30(000 ('.2/ ()0*3 2(03 1(1392 (

03'0

132 30(300 ('.9* ()1)2 2(0* 1(1)0' (

03'1

'0 30(.00 ('9*) ()299 2(13 1(1/01 (

03'1

10' 30(.00 ()03) ()299 2(13 1(1/01 (

03'1

*9 31()00 ()10' ())01 2(22 1(1999 (

03'2

/0 31(.00 ()1/3 ()).* 2(2/ 1(213' (

03'2 11' 32(000 ()2'2 ()*'2 2(29 1(222* (

03'2

139 32()00 ()312 ()/.1 2(3/ 1(2'*' (

03'2

)) 32(*00 ()3.1 ().0. 2(39 1(2)13 (

03'2

2) 33()00 ()')0 (*0)0 2()3 1(29/1 (

03'2

110 33(*00 ())19 (*0/* 2()) 1(302' (

03'2

123 3'(100 ()).9 (*20* 2(*' 1(329' (

03'1

13* 3'(*00 ()*). (*333 2(/3 1(3)/2 (

03'0

*3 3'(*00 ()/2/ (*333 2(/3 1(3)/2 (

03'0

12* 3'(900 ()/9* (*'0. 2(/. 1(3/'3 (03'0

12' 3'(900 ().** (*'0. 2(/. 1(3/'3 (

03'0

2. 3)(300 ()93) (*)0* 2(.* 1(39/* (

0339

1' 3)('00 (*00' (*)30 2(.. 1('03' (

0339

29 3)()00 (*0/3 (*))' 2(90 1('09' (

033.

.2 3)(*00 (*1'3 (*)/. 2(92 1('1)3 (

033.


4/18

)/ 3)(900 (*212 (**'9 2(9. 1('333 (

033/

/2 3*('00 (*2.1 (*/*) 3(09 1('*39 (

033*

9' 3*(.00 (*3)0 (*.)* 3(1. 1('... (

033'

.3 3/(000 (*'20 (*901 3(23 1()01' (

0333

). 3/(100 (*'.9 (*923 3(2) 1()0/. (0333

2/ 3/('00 (*)). (*9.. 3(32 1()2/0 (

0331

10* 3/()00 (**2/ (/010 3(3' 1()33' (

0331

3/ 3.('00 (**9/ (/199 3()/ 1()923 (

032/

9/ 3.(.00 (*/** (/2.0 3(*. 1(*190 (

032'

100 3.(900 (*.3) (/300 3(/0 1(*2). (

032'

*1 3.(900 (*90' (/300 3(/0 1(*2). (

032'

11 39(100 (*9/' (/3'0 3(/* 1(*393 (

0323

*' 39(/00 (/0'3 (/')* 3(93 1(*.03 (

0319 *0 39(.00 (/112 (/'/) 3(9* 1(*./2 (

031.

1'1 39(.00 (/1.1 (/'/) 3(9* 1(*./2 (

031.

1. '0(*00 (/2)1 (/*22 '(21 1(/'29 (

0313

)' '1(000 (/320 (/*93 '(33 1(//12 (

0310

.' '1(000 (/3.9 (/*93 '(33 1(//12 (

0310

1* '1(100 (/'). (//10 '(3/ 1(//.3 (

0309

/' '1('00 (/)2. (//*2 '('/ 1(/99/ (

030/

93 '1(900 (/)9/ (/.'* '(*' 1(.3)* (

0303

11* '2(000 (/*** (/.*2 '(*. 1(.'2. (0302

1) '2(200 (//3) (/.9) '(/) 1(.)/3 (

0300

2* '2(/00 (/.0) (/9/' '(9' 1(.93/ (

029*

'2 '3()00 (/./' (.09* )(2) 1(9)2/ (

02.9

113 ''(000 (/9'3 (.1*9 )('* 1(9.99 (

02.)

3' ''(100 (.012 (.1.3 )()0 1(99/3 (

02.'

13 ')(200 (.0.2 (.33' *(00 2(0.01 (

02/'

'9 ')(900 (.1)1 (.'2' *(3) 2(133' (

02*/

1 '*(000 (.220 (.'3* *('0 2(1'11 (

02** 10. '*(000 (.2.9 (.'3* *('0 2(1'11 (

02**

13' '*(/00 (.3)9 (.)21 *(/* 2(19'. (

02)9

133 '*(900 (.'2. (.)') *(./ 2(2103 (

02)/

12 '/(100 (.'9/ (.)*. *(9. 2(22)/ (

02)*

'* '/(300 (.)** (.)91 /(10 2(2'12 (

02)'

11. '.(.00 (.*3* (./)1 .(01 2(3).3 (


5/18

0239

120 '9(000 (./0) (.//1 .(1' 2(3/'0 (

023/

' '9(000 (.//' (.//1 .(1' 2(3/'0 (

023/

/9 '9()00 (..'3 (..20 .('. 2('13' (

0232

.* '9()00 (.913 (..20 .('. 2('13' (

0232 '. )0(100 (.9.2 (..// .(90 2('*09 (

022*

)1 )0(*00 (90)1 (.922 9(2/ 2()00* (

0221

3 )1()00 (9120 (.99. 9(9. 2()/2' (

0212

12) )3()00 (9190 (91)1 11(/. 2(/333 (

0192

)2 ))(.00 (92)9 (9299 1'(2* 2(920' (

01/1

1'' )*()00 (932. (9339 1)(12 2(9/// (

01*)

1'3 )/()00 (939. (9392 1*('' 3(0)9. (

01)*

109 ).('00 (9'*/ (9'3* 1/(/' 3(1339 (

01'9

22 *'(000 (9)3* (9*'9 2.()0 3()99) (010.

2 *)()00 (9*0) (9*91 32(39 3(/2)3 (

009.

23 *)()00 (9*/) (9*91 32(39 3(/2)3 (

009.

.) *.()00 (9/'' (9/*1 '1(.* 3(9//9 (

00.1

2' /1(200 (9.13 (9.11 )2(// '(20*2 (

00*.

1'2 /3(.00 (9..2 (9.'. *)(99 '('2*. (

00).

) /'()00 (99)2 (9.)/ /0(0. '('.*3 (

00))

esults o% inoial goodness o% %it test

variate dn = axFo$s-Fest4+sd= 1(*.1' at Fest= (*333"ro$( o% exceedance P5N6dn4 = (092/

nu$er o% o$servations = 1''

esults o% 7ologorov-Sirnov test

variate dn = axFo$s-Fest4 = (0/0.

"ro$( o% exceedance P5N6dn4 = ('*)/

esults o% 8hi-S,uare test

variate = chi-s,uare = 9(12)0

"ro$( o% exceedance o% variate = (*922

nu$er o% classes = 1)


degrees o% %reedo = 12

alues %or distinct return "eriods


6/18

eturn "er( "ro$xi:x4 " value x st( dev( x con%idence intervals

lo;er u""er

2 ()0000 29(/90 1(132 2/()/1 32(00.

) (.0000 '2(.*' 1(90* 39(12. '*(*00

10 (90000 )1()20 2()/' '*('/' )*()**

2) (9*000 *2(')/ 3('/1 ))(*)' *9(2*1

)0 (9.000 /0()/1 '(1)3 *2('30 /.(/13

100 (99000 /.(*2) '(.3. *9(1'1 ..(109 2)0 (99*00 .9(230 )(/'/ //(9*' 100('9)

)00 (99.00 9/(23/ *('3* .'(*19 109(.)'

1000 (99900 10)(23. /(12/ 91(2** 119(211

12)0 (99920 10/(.13 /(3)0 93('0' 122(222

2)00 (999*0 11)(.11 .(0'3 100(0'' 131()/.

)000 (999.0 123(.09 .(/3/ 10*(*.2 1'0(93*

10000 (99990 131(.02 9('31 113(31' 1)0(2.9

GRAFIK SEBARAN GUMBEL


7/18

b. Distribusi Pearson T!e " :

Series code = 0001 PN

First year = 1992

Last year = 2003


Fitting the Pearson-3 or gaa distri$ution %unction

Series code 0001 PN

&ethod o% oents is used

Nu$er o% data = 1''

Scale "ar( $eta = *(/93

Sha"e "ar( gaa = '(/'3

Location "ar( x0 = (000

Nr o% "araeters = 2

Nr(+year o$servation o$s(%re,( theor(%re,(" return-"er( st(dev(x" st(dev("

*. 3()00 (00'. (000' 1(00 (/909 (

000'

20 *('00 (011. (00') 1(00 (9/01 (

002/

)3 .()00 (01./ (013) 1(01 1(03/3 (

00*2

130 11('00 (02)* (03./ 1(0' 1(0.29 (

012*

32 11()00 (032) (039. 1(0' 1(0.3. (012.

91 12(100 (039) (0'/3 1(0) 1(0..) (

01'3

90 12()00 (0'*' (0)2/ 1(0* 1(0909 (

01)2

/ 12()00 (0)33 (0)2/ 1(0* 1(0909 (

01)2

/. 12(*00 (0*02 (0)'1 1(0* 1(091' (

01))

103 12(/00 (0*/2 (0))* 1(0* 1(0919 (

01)/

') 12(.00 (0/'1 (0)/0 1(0* 1(092' (

01)9

112 13(.00 (0.10 (0/2/ 1(0. 1(09). (

01.3

/3 1'(200 (0..0 (0/9) 1(09 1(09** (

0192 12/ 1'(300 (09'9 (0.13 1(09 1(09*/ (

019'

/1 1)(100 (101. (09*1 1(11 1(09/2 (

0212

21 1)(100 (10./ (09*1 1(11 1(09/2 (

0212

.9 1)('00 (11)/ (1020 1(11 1(09/2 (

021.

19 1*(300 (122* (120* 1(1' 1(09*' (

023*

129 1*(.00 (129) (131* 1(1) 1(09)/ (


8/18

02'*

** 1*(.00 (13*' (131* 1(1) 1(09)/ (

02'*

)* 1/(100 (1'3' (13.' 1(1* 1(09)3 (

02)1

'3 1/(200 (1)03 (1'0/ 1(1* 1(09)1 (

02)3

122 1/(300 (1)/2 (1'30 1(1/ 1(09'9 (

02)' 9) 1/('00 (1*'1 (1')3 1(1/ 1(09'/ (

02)*

102 1/(.00 (1/11 (1)'. 1(1. 1(09'0 (

02*3

)0 1.(200 (1/.0 (1*') 1(20 1(0933 (

02*9

3) 1.('00 (1.'9 (1*9) 1(20 1(0929 (

02/2

10 1.()00 (191. (1/20 1(21 1(092. (

02/'

*/ 1.(*00 (19.. (1/') 1(21 1(092* (

02/)

10/ 19(200 (20)/ (1.9. 1(23 1(091* (

02.3

. 19(300 (212* (192' 1(2' 1(091) (

02.)

99 19('00 (219) (19)1 1(2' 1(0913 (02.*

.. 19(*00 (22*) (2003 1(2) 1(0911 (

02..

'' 19(*00 (233' (2003 1(2) 1(0911 (

02..

// 20(000 (2'03 (2110 1(2/ 1(090* (

0293

11/ 20(300 (2'/2 (2191 1(2. 1(090' (

029*

'/ 20(/00 (2)'2 (2300 1(30 1(0903 (

0301

/) 20(.00 (2*11 (232. 1(30 1(0902 (

0302

3. 21(000 (2*.0 (23.3 1(31 1(0903 (

030'

1/ 21('00 (2/'9 (2'9) 1(33 1(090' (

030/ 33 21(/00 (2.19 (2).0 1(3) 1(090/ (

0310

31 21(900 (2... (2*3/ 1(3* 1(0910 (

0311

119 22()00 (29)/ (2.10 1(39 1(0922 (

031*

1'0 22()00 (302* (2.10 1(39 1(0922 (

031*

9 22(.00 (309* (2.9/ 1('1 1(0930 (

031.

101 23(000 (31*) (29)) 1('2 1(093/ (

0319

/* 23(200 (323' (3013 1('3 1(09'' (

0320

111 23(300 (3303 (30'2 1('' 1(09'. (

0321

* 23()00 (33/3 (3101 1(') 1(09)/ (0322

9* 23(*00 (3''2 (3130 1('* 1(09*1 (

0322

.0 2'(000 (3)11 (32'. 1('. 1(09.2 (

032'

13) 2'('00 (3).0 (33** 1()1 1(100* (

032*

13. 2'(900 (3*)0 (3)1) 1()' 1(10'2 (

032.

9. 2'(900 (3/19 (3)1) 1()' 1(10'2 (

032.


9/18

121 2)(100 (3/.. (3)/' 1()* 1(10). (

032.

'1 2)(100 (3.)/ (3)/' 1()* 1(10). (

032.

92 2)(300 (392/ (3*33 1()/ 1(10/) (

0329

30 2)(*00 (399* (3/22 1()9 1(1103 (

0330

*) 2)(900 ('0*) (3.11 1(*2 1(1133 (0330

12. 2*(000 ('13' (3.'1 1(*2 1(11'' (

0331

)9 2*(*00 ('20' ('019 1(*/ 1(1213 (

0332

.1 2*(*00 ('2/3 ('019 1(*/ 1(1213 (

0332

13/ 2*(/00 ('3'2 ('0'. 1(*. 1(122* (

0332

./ 2*(/00 (''11 ('0'. 1(*. 1(122* (

0332

*2 2/(.00 (''.1 ('3/2 1(/. 1(13.) (

0333

10) 2.(300 ('))0 (')1. 1(.2 1(1'*9 (

0333

3* 2.('00 ('*19 (')'/ 1(.3 1(1'./ (

0333 131 2.(*00 ('*.. ('*0' 1(.) 1(1)2' (

0333

39 29(*00 ('/). ('.91 1(9* 1(1/2* (

0333

11) 30(000 ('.2/ ()00' 2(00 1(1.1/ (

0332

132 30(300 ('.9* ()0.. 2(0' 1(1... (

0332

'0 30(.00 ('9*) ()22/ 2(10 1(201' (

0331

10' 30(.00 ()03) ()22/ 2(10 1(201' (

0331

*9 31()00 ()10' ()'1. 2(1. 1(2203 (

0330

/0 31(.00 ()1/3 ()'99 2(22 1(2290 (

0330

11' 32(000 ()2'2 ()))2 2(2) 1(23'9 (0329

139 32()00 ()312 ()*.) 2(32 1(2)03 (

032.

)) 32(*00 ()3.1 ()/11 2(33 1(2)3) (

032.

2) 33()00 ()')0 ()9'3 2('* 1(2.3* (

032*

110 33(*00 ())19 ()9*. 2('. 1(2./1 (

032*

123 3'(100 ()).9 (*09' 2()* 1(30)1 (

032'

13* 3'(*00 ()*). (*21/ 2(*' 1(3239 (

0323

*3 3'(*00 ()/2/ (*21/ 2(*' 1(3239 (

0323

12* 3'(900 ()/9* (*290 2(/0 1(33)* (

0322 12' 3'(900 ().** (*290 2(/0 1(33)* (

0322

2. 3)(300 ()93) (*3.) 2(// 1(3)1* (

0320

1' 3)('00 (*00' (*'09 2(/. 1(3))/ (

0320

29 3)()00 (*0/3 (*'32 2(.0 1(3)9. (

0320

.2 3)(*00 (*1'3 (*')* 2(.2 1(3*'0 (

0319

)/ 3)(900 (*212 (*)2* 2(.. 1(3/** (


10/18

031.

/2 3*('00 (*2.1 (**'0 2(9. 1(39.2 (

031*

9' 3*(.00 (*3)0 (*/29 3(0* 1('1*1 (

031'

.3 3/(000 (*'20 (*//' 3(10 1('2)2 (

031'

). 3/(100 (*'.9 (*/9* 3(12 1('29/ (

0313 2/ 3/('00 (*)). (*.*1 3(19 1(''3/ (

0312

10* 3/()00 (**2/ (*..2 3(21 1(''.' (

0311

3/ 3.('00 (**9/ (/0/2 3('1 1('920 (

030/

9/ 3.(.00 (*/** (/1)3 3()1 1()122 (

030)

100 3.(900 (*.3) (/1/3 3()' 1()1/3 (

030'

*1 3.(900 (*90' (/1/3 3()' 1()1/3 (

030'

11 39(100 (*9/' (/213 3()9 1()2/) (

0303

*' 39(/00 (/0'3 (/331 3(/) 1())90 (

0300

*0 39(.00 (/112 (/3)0 3(// 1()*'3 (0299

1'1 39(.00 (/1.1 (/3)0 3(// 1()*'3 (

0299

1. '0(*00 (/2)1 (/)00 '(00 1(*0/. (

029)

)' '1(000 (/320 (/)/2 '(12 1(*302 (

0292

.' '1(000 (/3.9 (/)/2 '(12 1(*302 (

0292

1* '1(100 (/'). (/)90 '(1) 1(*3)9 (

0292

/' '1('00 (/)2. (/*'3 '(2' 1(*)30 (

0290

93 '1(900 (/)9/ (//30 '('0 1(*.19 (

02./

11* '2(000 (/*** (//'/ '('' 1(*./. (

02.* 1) '2(200 (//3) (//.0 '()0 1(*99* (

02.)

2* '2(/00 (/.0) (/.*3 '(*. 1(/29) (

02.1

'2 '3()00 (/./' (/990 '(9/ 1(//.' (

02/)

113 ''(000 (/9'3 (.0** )(1/ 1(.09/ (

02/2

3' ''(100 (.012 (.0.1 )(21 1(.1*0 (

02/1

13 ')(200 (.0.2 (.2'0 )(*. 1(..*. (

02*3

'9 ')(900 (.1)1 (.33) *(01 1(9331 (

02)/

1 '*(000 (.220 (.3'. *(0) 1(939. (

02)*

10. '*(000 (.2.9 (.3'. *(0) 1(939. (02)*

13' '*(/00 (.3)9 (.'3. *('0 1(9./1 (

02)1

133 '*(900 (.'2. (.'*3 *()1 2(000. (

02'9

12 '/(100 (.'9/ (.'.. *(*1 2(01') (

02'/

'* '/(300 (.)** (.)13 *(/2 2(02.3 (

02'*

11. '.(.00 (.*3* (.*.) /(*1 2(13'1 (

0233


11/18

120 '9(000 (./0) (./0/ /(/3 2(1'.' (

0231

' '9(000 (.//' (./0/ /(/3 2(1'.' (

0231

/9 '9()00 (..'3 (./*0 .(0* 2(1.'* (

022/

.* '9()00 (.913 (./*0 .(0* 2(1.'* (

022/

'. )0(100 (.9.2 (..21 .('. 2(22.* (0222

)1 )0(*00 (90)1 (../0 .(.) 2(2*)) (

021/

3 )1()00 (9120 (.9)3 9()) 2(3331 (

0209

12) )3()00 (9190 (9120 11(3* 2('./2 (

0192

)2 ))(.00 (92)9 (92.2 13(93 2(*/0) (

01/2

1'' )*()00 (932. (932* 1'(.3 2(/2/' (

01**

1'3 )/()00 (939. (93.' 1*(2' 2(.09. (

01)/

109 ).('00 (9'*/ (9'33 1/(*3 2(..'9 (

01)0

22 *'(000 (9)3* (9**) 29(.2 3(3*.9 (

010. 2 *)()00 (9*0) (9/10 3'(') 3()032 (

009.

23 *)()00 (9*/) (9/10 3'(') 3()032 (

009.

.) *.()00 (9/'' (9/.' '*(20 3(//*. (

00.1

2' /1(200 (9.13 (9.3) *0(') '(02.) (

00*/

1'2 /3(.00 (9..2 (9./3 /.(*1 '(2/)3 (

00))

) /'()00 (99)2 (9..2 .'('3 '(3'2' (

00)3


variate dn = axFo$s-Fest4+sd= 1(3.32 at Fest= (*21/

"ro$( o% exceedance P5N6dn4 = (1***nu$er o% o$servations = 1''


variate dn = axFo$s-Fest4 = (0)92

"ro$( o% exceedance P5N6dn4 = (*9'1


variate = chi-s,uare = )(3/)0

"ro$( o% exceedance o% variate = (9''3






12/18


lo;er u""er

2 ()0000 29(9.* 1(1.1 2/(*/0 32(302

) (.0000 '3()*/ 1(/.3 '0(0/3 '/(0*2

10 (90000 )2(033 2(3/' '/(3/9 )*(*.*

2) (9*000 *2(1)0 3(20* ))(.*) *.('3)

)0 (9.000 *9(29. 3(.)1 *1(/'9 /*(.'/

100 (99000 /*(1)1 '()02 */(32) .'(9// 2)0 (99*00 .'(./0 )(3*9 /'(3') 9)(39'

)00 (99.00 91(2** *(02/ /9(')1 103(0.1

1000 (99900 9/()2* *(*./ .'('1/ 110(*3*

12)0 (99920 99()1. *(900 .)(991 113(0')

2)00 (999*0 10)(*32 /()*3 90(.0* 120(').

)000 (999.0 111(*)2 .(22/ 9)()2) 12/(//9

10000 (99990 11/()92 .(.92 100(1*1 13)(023

GRAFIK SEBARAN PEARS#N T$PE%"


13/18

&. Distribusi Normal :

Series code = 0001 PN

First year = 1992

Last year = 2003


Fitting the noral distri$ution %unction

Series code 0001 PN

Nu$er o% data = 1''

&ean = 32(220

Standard deviation = 1'(/9'

S


14/18

02'0

)* 1/(100 (1'3' (1)3' 1(1. 1()211 (

02'3

'3 1/(200 (1)03 (1))0 1(1. 1()1/* (

02''

122 1/(300 (1)/2 (1)** 1(19 1()1'2 (

02'*

9) 1/('00 (1*'1 (1).2 1(19 1()10. (

02'/ 102 1/(.00 (1/11 (1*'9 1(20 1('9/3 (

02)1

)0 1.(200 (1/.0 (1/1* 1(21 1('.'0 (

02))

3) 1.('00 (1.'9 (1/)1 1(21 1('//) (

02).

10 1.()00 (191. (1/*9 1(21 1('/'3 (

02)9

*/ 1.(*00 (19.. (1/.* 1(22 1('/10 (

02*0

10/ 19(200 (20)/ (1.9' 1(23 1(')20 (

02**

. 19(300 (212* (1912 1(2' 1(''.9 (

02*/

99 19('00 (219) (1931 1(2' 1(''). (

02*.

.. 19(*00 (22*) (19*. 1(2) 1('39/ (02/0

'' 19(*00 (233' (19*. 1(2) 1('39/ (

02/0

// 20(000 (2'03 (20'' 1(2* 1('2// (

02/'

11/ 20(300 (2'/2 (2102 1(2/ 1('1.. (

02//

'/ 20(/00 (2)'2 (21.1 1(2. 1('0/3 (

02.0

/) 20(.00 (2*11 (2201 1(2. 1('0') (

02.1

3. 21(000 (2*.0 (22'1 1(29 1(39.9 (

02.3

1/ 21('00 (2/'9 (2323 1(30 1(3./9 (

02.*

33 21(/00 (2.19 (23.) 1(31 1(3/9. (

02.9 31 21(900 (2... (2'2/ 1(32 1(3/'* (

0291

119 22()00 (29)/ (2))* 1(3' 1(3)93 (

029)

1'0 22()00 (302* (2))* 1(3' 1(3)93 (

029)

9 22(.00 (309* (2*21 1(3* 1(3)19 (

029.

101 23(000 (31*) (2*** 1(3* 1(3'/1 (

0299

/* 23(200 (323' (2/10 1(3/ 1(3'2' (

0301

111 23(300 (3303 (2/33 1(3. 1(3'01 (

0301

* 23()00 (33/3 (2//. 1(3. 1(33)) (

0303

9* 23(*00 (3''2 (2.01 1(39 1(3333 (0303

.0 2'(000 (3)11 (2.92 1('1 1(32') (

030*

13) 2'('00 (3).0 (29.) 1('3 1(31*0 (

0309

13. 2'(900 (3*)0 (310' 1(') 1(30*0 (

0312

9. 2'(900 (3/19 (310' 1(') 1(30*0 (

0312

121 2)(100 (3/.. (31)2 1('* 1(3022 (

0313


15/18

'1 2)(100 (3.)/ (31)2 1('* 1(3022 (

0313

92 2)(300 (392/ (3200 1('/ 1(29.' (

031'

30 2)(*00 (399* (32/3 1('9 1(2930 (

031*

*) 2)(900 ('0*) (33'* 1()0 1(2./. (

031/

12. 2*(000 ('13' (33/1 1()1 1(2.*1 (031.

)9 2*(*00 ('20' (3)20 1()' 1(2/*) (

0320

.1 2*(*00 ('2/3 (3)20 1()' 1(2/*) (

0320

13/ 2*(/00 ('3'2 (3)') 1()) 1(2/'9 (

0321

./ 2*(/00 (''11 (3)') 1()) 1(2/'9 (

0321

*2 2/(.00 (''.1 (3.2* 1(*2 1(2*00 (

032)

10) 2.(300 ('))0 (39)) 1(*) 1(2)'2 (

032/

3* 2.('00 ('*19 (39.1 1(** 1(2)32 (

032/

131 2.(*00 ('*.. ('033 1(*. 1(2)11 (

032/ 39 29(*00 ('/). ('29/ 1(/) 1(2'2) (

0330

11) 30(000 ('.2/ (''0' 1(/9 1(239. (

0331

132 30(300 ('.9* (''.' 1(.1 1(23.0 (

0331

'0 30(.00 ('9*) ('*1. 1(.* 1(23)/ (

0332

10' 30(.00 ()03) ('*1. 1(.* 1(23)/ (

0332

*9 31()00 ()10' ('.0* 1(93 1(233* (

0332

/0 31(.00 ()1/3 ('../ 1(9* 1(2331 (

0332

11' 32(000 ()2'2 ('9'1 1(9. 1(2329 (

0332

139 32()00 ()312 ()0/) 2(03 1(2330 (0332

)) 32(*00 ()3.1 ()102 2(0' 1(2331 (

0332

2) 33()00 ()')0 ()3') 2(1) 1(23)2 (

0332

110 33(*00 ())19 ()3/2 2(1* 1(23)) (

0332

123 3'(100 ()).9 ())0* 2(22 1(23/. (

0331

13* 3'(*00 ()*). ()*39 2(29 1(2'0. (

0330

*3 3'(*00 ()/2/ ()*39 2(29 1(2'0. (

0330

12* 3'(900 ()/9* ()/19 2(3' 1(2'29 (

0330

12' 3'(900 ().** ()/19 2(3' 1(2'29 (

0330 2. 3)(300 ()93) ().2) 2(39 1(2'*1 (

0329

1' 3)('00 (*00' ().)1 2('1 1(2'/0 (

0329

29 3)()00 (*0/3 ().// 2('3 1(2'/9 (

032.

.2 3)(*00 (*1'3 ()90' 2('' 1(2'.. (

032.

)/ 3)(900 (*212 ()9.2 2('9 1(2)1/ (

032/

/2 3*('00 (*2.1 (*112 2()/ 1(2)/1 (


16/18

032*

9' 3*(.00 (*3)0 (*21* 2(*' 1(2*20 (

032'

.3 3/(000 (*'20 (*2*/ 2(*. 1(2*') (

032'

). 3/(100 (*'.9 (*292 2(/0 1(2*)9 (

0323

2/ 3/('00 (*)). (*3*9 2(/) 1(2/00 (

0322 10* 3/()00 (**2/ (*39' 2(// 1(2/1' (

0322

3/ 3.('00 (**9/ (**19 2(9* 1(2.)' (

031.

9/ 3.(.00 (*/** (*/1. 3(0) 1(2923 (

031*

100 3.(900 (*.3) (*/'2 3(0/ 1(29'1 (

031)

*1 3.(900 (*90' (*/'2 3(0/ 1(29'1 (

031)

11 39(100 (*9/' (*/90 3(12 1(29// (

031'

*' 39(/00 (/0'3 (*93' 3(2* 1(3092 (

0311

*0 39(.00 (/112 (*9). 3(29 1(3112 (

0310

1'1 39(.00 (/1.1 (*9). 3(29 1(3112 (0310

1. '0(*00 (/2)1 (/1'' 3()0 1(32/9 (

030)

)' '1(000 (/320 (/23* 3(*2 1(33*9 (

0302

.' '1(000 (/3.9 (/23* 3(*2 1(33*9 (

0302

1* '1(100 (/'). (/2). 3(*) 1(3392 (

0302

/' '1('00 (/)2. (/32) 3(/' 1(3'*2 (

0300

93 '1(900 (/)9/ (/'3) 3(90 1(3).3 (

029*

11* '2(000 (/*** (/')/ 3(93 1(3*0. (

029)

1) '2(200 (//3) (/)00 '(00 1(3*). (

0293 2* '2(/00 (/.0) (/*0* '(1. 1(3/.. (

02.9

'2 '3()00 (/./' (///1 '('9 1('00) (

02.2

113 ''(000 (/9'3 (/./1 '(/0 1('1'/ (

02/.

3' ''(100 (.012 (/.90 '(/' 1('1// (

02//

13 ')(200 (.0.2 (.099 )(2* 1(')0. (

02**

'9 ')(900 (.1)1 (.22' )(*3 1('/30 (

02)9

1 '*(000 (.220 (.2'2 )(*9 1('/*2 (

02).

10. '*(000 (.2.9 (.2'2 )(*9 1('/*2 (

02).

13' '*(/00 (.3)9 (.3*1 *(10 1('993 (02)0

133 '*(900 (.'2. (.39) *(23 1()0*0 (

02'.

12 '/(100 (.'9/ (.'2/ *(3* 1()12. (

02'*

'* '/(300 (.)** (.'*0 *('9 1()19/ (

02''

11. '.(.00 (.*3* (.*.. /(*2 1()/31 (

022*

120 '9(000 (./0) (./1* /(/9 1().0' (

022'


17/18

' '9(000 (.//' (./1* /(/9 1().0' (

022'

/9 '9()00 (..'3 (./.* .(2' 1()990 (

021.

.* '9()00 (.913 (./.* .(2' 1()990 (

021.

'. )0(100 (.9.2 (..** .(.2 1(*21. (

0211

)1 )0(*00 (90)1 (.929 9(3' 1(*'11 (020)

3 )1()00 (9120 (903/ 10(39 1(*/** (

0193

12) )3()00 (9190 (92'. 13(30 1(/)./ (

01*.

)2 ))(.00 (92)9 (9'') 1.(02 1(.)/. (

01'1

1'' )*()00 (932. (9'9* 19(.) 1(.... (

0132

1'3 )/()00 (939. (9)*3 22(.* 1(9339 (

0121

109 ).('00 (9'*/ (9*1* 2*(0' 1(9/)0 (

0111

22 *'(000 (9)3* (9.'1 *3(0. 2(2'2' (

00*0

2 *)()00 (9*0) (9./. .1(/0 2(31*/ (

00)0 23 *)()00 (9*/) (9./. .1(/0 2(31*/ (

00)0

.) *.()00 (9/'' (9929 1'0(.9 2('*.1 (

0033

2' /1(200 (9.13 (99). 23/()* 2(*0/2 (

0022

1'2 /3(.00 (9..2 (99/) '0'(3* 2(/'31 (

001'

) /'()00 (99)2 (99/9 '*.(90 2(/.00 (

0013


variate dn = axFo$s-Fest4+sd= 2(9/21 at Fest= (9./.

"ro$( o% exceedance P5N6dn4 = (0030



variate dn = axFo$s-Fest4 = (0.99

"ro$( o% exceedance P5N6dn4 = (19'/


variate = chi-s,uare = 20(1**/

"ro$( o% exceedance o% variate = (0*'0






18/18


lo;er u""er

2 ()0000 32(220 1(233 29(.03 3'(*3/

) (.0000 ''(**9 1('3) '1(.)/ '/('.1

10 (90000 )1(1.2 1(**' '/(921 )'('''

2) (9*000 ).(12* 1(9*2 )'(2/9 *1(9/3

)0 (9.000 *2(*10 2(1/' ).(3'. **(./3

100 (99000 **(*'3 2(3/' *1(990 /1(29/ 2)0 (99*00 /1('*1 2(*20 **(32' /*()99

)00 (99.00 /'(.0* 2(/9* *9(32) .0(2./

1000 (99900 //(9'2 2(9*3 /2(13' .3(/)1

12)0 (99920 /.(91' 3(01) /3(003 .'(.2'

2)00 (999*0 .1(.2* 3(1/2 /)(*0* ..(0')

)000 (999.0 .'()9* 3(323 /.(0.1 91(111

10000 (99990 ./(2'1 3('*9 .0(''1 9'(0'1

GRAFIK SEBARAN N#RMAL

Lampiran Hymos

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