Labour Market Report - Alberta · 2015-07-29 · Calgary & Area Labour Market Report - Second...

Q2 2013

Calgary & AreaLabour Market Report

............................................................................................................................Introduction 1.............................................................................................................Organization of the Report 1

...............................................................................................................Executive Summary 2.......................................................................................................................The Economy 11

...........................................................................................................................Global Economy 11..............................................................................................................................U.S. Economy 20

......................................................................................................................Canadian Economy 28..........................................................................................................................Alberta Economy 40

.............................................................................................................Calgary Region Economy 53.................................................................................................Trends in the Labour Market 67

.........................................................................................................................................Canada 67..........................................................................................................................................Alberta 74

...................................................................................Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) 79.........................................................................................Calgary & Area Employer Survey 83

.................................Q2 2013 Survey Results: Medium-Sized Companies (50 - 99 Employees) 83..............................................................................................................Job Bank Analysis 120

...............................................................................................................................Calgary (city) 120............................................................................................Communities Surrounding Calgary 123

...................................................................................................................Banff/Canmore Area 125.........................................................................................................................Appendix A 128

...................................................................................................................Survey Methodology 128

Calgary & Area Labour Market Report - Second Quarter 2013

Alberta Human Services

Contents

IntroductionAlberta Human Services provides career and labour market information products and resources, with both a provincial and local/regional focus, in order that Albertans have the skills, supports and information they need to succeed in the labour market.

This report provides labour market information and analysis for use by Albertans in learning about the labour market and career planning; by employers and industry in understanding and addressing labour market issues; and by the Alberta Human Services Calgary Region in strategic planning for programs and services.

Organization of the Report This report contains the following information:

Economic Overview – The Calgary region’s economy is influenced by global economic conditions, and by economic drivers in the Canadian economy and elsewhere in Alberta. This section provides information on economic activity in the second quarter of 2013, as well as outlooks (where available) for the global, U.S., Canada, Alberta and Calgary region economies.

Trends in the Labour Market – This section examines labour market information for Canada, Alberta and the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).

Calgary and Area Employer Survey – This section highlights findings from a survey conducted in the second quarter of 2013 of Calgary and area employers with 50 - 99 employees. Results of this survey are compared to the results of a survey conducted in the second quarter of 2012 (companies with 50 - 99 employees).

Job Bank Analysis – This section provides a summary of jobs posted to the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2013.

Disclaimer

Alberta Human Services has made every effort to ensure that the information contained in this report is reliable, but makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness. The user of any information in this report accepts full responsibility and risk of loss resulting from decisions made by the user.


Alberta Human Services 1

Executive SummaryThe EconomyGLOBAL ECONOMYGlobal activity remained subdued in the first quarter of 2013 as major economies such as Germany, China and Brazil posted lower than expected growth. The outlook appeared to be improving in the second quarter of the year, albeit at a slow and uneven pace. The general consensus among forecasters is that the global economy should gradually gain traction through the remainder of the year and strengthen into 2014.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects real global GDP to expand by 3.5 per cent this year and by 4.0 per cent in 2014. This year’s growth should be driven by stronger private demand in the U.S., a policy induced boost to growth in Japan, and moderate economic acceleration across emerging and developing nations – developments that should pave the way for a stronger global performance in 2014.

The euro area crisis has continued to be a major force acting to curb growth momentum in advanced economies. Following a 0.6 per cent year-over-year output contraction in 2012, the region is projected to undergo a milder recession this year with an output contraction of 0.3 per cent. Growth is expected to strengthen gradually throughout the year as fiscal consolidation efforts ease, and in 2014 the region’s real annual output growth is expected to cross into positive territory to 1.1 per cent.

Germany’s output decelerated 0.7 per cent in the final quarter of 2012 due to declining exports and investment. The first quarter of 2013 brought lackluster growth of 0.1 per cent, largely triggered by inclement weather and delays in construction and transport sector activity. However, expanding employment and improving business confidence are painting a brighter picture for Germany. Growth is forecast to strengthen somewhat and average 0.4 per cent this year, rebounding to 1.5 per cent in 2014, supported by robust domestic demand and improving global trade.

France’s economic activity has remained sluggish over the past two years. Real annual GDP growth in 2012 was close to zero, and declined by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, weighed down by substantial fiscal consolidation. Looking forward, France is expected to post an overall growth contraction of 0.1 per cent this year due to fiscal consolidation efforts, weak export growth and low confidence. Minimal growth of just 0.9 per cent is projected for 2014.

Italy and Spain are expected to undergo substantial output contractions this year averaging 1.5 and 1.6 per cent respectively, with positive but modest growth of less than 1.0 per cent anticipated for 2014.

Following the 2012 recession, Japan’s economy rebounded in early 2013 posting first quarter real GDP growth of 1.0 per cent, driven by robust household consumption and public investment in infrastructure. This positive development came with the Bank of Japan’s decisive policy plan to revive the economy through the adoption of monetary and fiscal stimulus programs, a higher inflation target, and structural reforms.



China’s economy is expected to grow by about 7.6 per cent in 2013, a slight reduction compared to last year’s average of 7.8 per cent. While some of the downward adjustment was due to relatively weak first quarter reports, it is also a reflection of the recently inaugurated administration’s willingness to accept slower growth in order to address mounting financial imbalances and structural reforms. The yuan also performed better than any other global currency during the first half of 2013, with high appreciation placing pressure on Chinese exporters and possibly dampening trade patterns.

Growth remained subdued in India during the first quarter of 2013, with a year-over-year real GDP expansion of 4.8 per cent posted. Forecasters expect India’s economy to gain momentum through the remaining quarters and finish 2013 with an annual growth rate of 5.5 per cent; picking up steam in 2014 with growth of about 6.0 per cent. Growth is expected to remain significantly below the 8.0 per cent average recorded over the past 10 years.

Risks to the global economy have receded since mid-2012 as policymakers were successful in avoiding the break-up of the euro area and most of the drag impact of a sharp fiscal contraction in the U.S. However, downside risks continue to dominate the global outlook.

U.S. ECONOMYU.S. real GDP growth posted a softer than anticipated gain of 1.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2013. The lackluster growth was partially the result of weak government spending and deteriorating export activity, counteracted by rebuilding inventories and a robust 2.6 per cent gain in consumption expenditure.

Overall, economic indicators suggested that the U.S. economy continued to recover at a steady pace into the second quarter of the year. The housing market gained further momentum with home prices surging at double-digit rates, and new residential construction and sales nearing five-year highs.

Bolstered by rising housing prices, measures of consumer confidence improved in May 2013 for a third consecutive month, reaching a level not observed since January 2008. Rising consumer sentiment was also reflected in June’s 15.9 million annualized auto sales figure – the strongest reading since 2007. Real personal incomes also rose 0.5 per cent in May 2013 relative to April, boosting consumer spending and retail trade.

On the downside, despite robust job creation observed in the second quarter of 2013, the U.S. unemployment rate has remained persistently elevated, hovering above the 7.5 per cent mark. Further, small business confidence dropped in June, ending two months of steady increase.

Given softer-than-anticipated first quarter real GDP growth and the environment of ongoing fiscal consolidation, growth in the second quarter of 2013 is likely to remain muted. On the upside, economic performance in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen as the impacts of fiscal consolidation diminish. Looking forward, overall annual growth in the U.S. economy is forecast at 1.9 per cent this year due to the rapid pace of fiscal deficit reduction, but should resurge to 2.7 per cent in 2014.

The U.S. housing market recovery remained on track in May 2013, bolstered by low borrowing rates and relatively subdued housing prices. According to forecasts, the rebound in housing activity is expected to continue, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points to real GDP growth this year and next.



The general consensus of forecasters is that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its quantitative easing program in the autumn of this year, initiating gradual reductions until ending its purchases during the spring of 2014. Interest rate hikes are not anticipated until at least early to mid-2015.

In the first half of 2013, the labour market outlook was largely positive with the U.S. economy managing to churn out an average of 202,000 positions per month despite the period of ongoing fiscal austerity.

The U.S. trade deficit widened to $45.0 billion in May 2013, deteriorating by $4.9 billion from April and exceeding market expectations of $40.1 billion. This development was attributable to weaker export activity and robust import growth, as the improving domestic economy outpaced sluggish global growth.

CANADIAN ECONOMYThe Canadian economy started the year on confident footing with first quarter 2013 real GDP expanding at a robust annualized pace of 2.5 per cent, up markedly from the sluggish 0.9 per cent growth posted in the prior quarter. The first quarter reading represented the highest level of growth recorded in six quarters and significantly exceeded the Bank of Canada’s earlier forecast of 1.5 per cent. However, the components of growth suggested a shift away from domestic drivers of growth such as housing and consumer expenditure, toward exports which are conditional on the pace of the U.S. and global economic recovery.

The Canadian economy is expected to grow 1.8 per cent in 2013, gaining traction in 2014 on the back of stronger export growth brought on by rising U.S. demand and a weaker Canadian dollar.

In late May 2013, the Bank of Canada announced that the overnight rate would remain targeted at 1.0 per cent, a trend unchanged since September 2010. Forecasters generally expect overnight rates to remain at 1.0 per cent until the third quarter of 2014, before trending up to a less accommodative level of 3.5 per cent by 2016.

Following a decade of strong construction activity and price growth in the housing sector, the Canadian housing market has entered a period of cooling. Over the past year, the number of housing starts and home sales declined markedly and housing price growth moderated, largely in response to the implementation of tighter mortgage rules. Recent indicators suggest that the housing market is beginning to exhibit signs of stabilization at lower, more sustainable levels that are consistent with the rate of household formation.

An ongoing concern for Canadian policymakers has been the elevated level of credit market debt relative to disposable income. However, it appears that households have started to show increasing restraint when it comes to borrowing. Average household indebtedness declined for a second consecutive quarter in the first quarter of 2013 and stood at about 162 per cent of disposable income. The decline was due to softer credit growth and moderate but steady income gains.

Inflation has remained nearly a non-issue in recent quarters, and forecasters do not expect core CPI to return to the Bank of Canada’s target of 2.0 per cent until 2015. Price growth has been limited by factors including a weak global backdrop, sub-par domestic growth, and increased competition among discount retailers.



The loonie steadily depreciated through the second quarter of 2013 relative to the U.S. dollar, declining from an average of US$0.98 in April 2013 to US$0.96 by the end of June 2013. A variety of factors have contributed to the recent depreciation, with the CAD losing nearly 9 U.S. cents since September 2012. These factors include the loss of Canada’s growth advantage, the softening of crude oil and other commodity prices, the absence of an increase in the overnight rate anticipated in the near-term, net foreign outflows from Canadian equities, and the overall strengthening outlook of the U.S. dollar.

Canada’s international trade deficit stood at $303 million in May 2013, a significant improvement over April’s reading of $951 million. However, the improved trade position was due to a sharp decline in imports (-3.2 per cent) which outpaced a lesser decline in exports (-1.6 per cent). These results suggested that anemic global demand had continued to take its toll on the Canadian trade sector, and that a sustained rebound in Canada’s export sector has yet to be observed.

In the first quarter of 2013, the Canadian population increased by 85,000 to reach an estimated 35,141,500. This figure represented an increase of 0.2 per cent from the same period a year ago. In the first quarter of the year, international migration accounted for 73 per cent of population growth, with natural increase accounting for just 27 per cent.

ALBERTA ECONOMYUneven economic growth is expected across Canada in 2013, however Alberta, along with Newfoundland and Labrador (+6.0 per cent), Saskatchewan (+3.8 per cent) and Manitoba (+2.2 per cent), are forecast to outpace the national average of 1.8 per cent. Alberta’s economy is forecast to moderate slightly to 3.0 per cent growth this year, following strong growth of 3.9 per cent in 2012.

In 2013, growth in Alberta is projected to be strong in retail and wholesale trade, finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, construction and mining. In 2014, slowing natural gas production and a decline in government spending will slightly dampen growth in the province to 2.8 per cent. The manufacturing industry is projected to grow at a more rapid pace in 2014, with output expected to increase 2.8 per cent in 2014, following growth of 1.3 per cent in 2013.

In the second quarter of 2013, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices, the North American benchmark for high quality oil, averaged $94 U.S. per barrel, unchanged from the first quarter of 2013. More importantly, Western Canada Select (WCS) prices, the Canadian heavy oil benchmark, increased from an average of $62 U.S. per barrel to $75 U.S. per barrel over the same time period.

Housing starts in Alberta are forecast to moderate to 32,700 units in 2013, a 2.1 per cent decline from 2012. Starts in 2014 are forecast to increase slightly at an annual rate of 1.2 per cent to 33,100 units. The strong growth observed in 2012, particularly in the multi-family segment, added to supply and is forecast to slow the pace of new projects over the next year.

Resale housing sales in Alberta are projected to increase 2.0 per cent to 61,600 units in 2013 and 2.8 per cent to 63,300 units in 2014. The average resale price in the province is forecast to rise 3.0 per cent to $374,200 in 2013 and a further 2.1 per cent to $381,900 in 2014.

Employment gains and increased levels of net migration pushed the average apartment vacancy rate in Alberta down to 1.5 per cent in April 2013, from 3.0 per cent the previous year. The average rent for an apartment in Alberta increased to $1,015 per month in April 2013, from $961 the previous year.



Retail sales in Alberta reached $17.76 billion in the first quarter of 2013, up 1.8 per cent from the previous quarter and up 5.8 per cent year-over-year. In May 2013, retail sales in the province hit $6.13 billion, a new record high for any single month of sales, up 1.6 per cent from the previous month and up 7.9 per cent year-over-year.

The average weekly earnings of Alberta payroll employees rose by $38 (+3.6 per cent) year-over-year in the first quarter of 2013 to $1,100. On average, Albertans earned $192 more per week in Q1 2013 than the national average of $907.

Personal bankruptcies in Alberta totaled 1,287 in the first quarter of 2013, up 2.5 per cent from the previous quarter but down 21 per cent year-over-year. In addition, 36 businesses closed their doors in Alberta in the first quarter of 2013, down 27 per cent from the previous quarter and down 44 per cent year-over-year.

The average number of Albertans receiving regular Employment Insurance (EI) benefits declined 3.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, compared to the previous quarter, continuing the downward trend started in the fourth quarter of 2009. Year-over-year, regular EI beneficiaries were down 8.0 per cent in Alberta in the first quarter of 2013.

Alberta’s population grew by 0.86 per cent or 34,000 in the first quarter of 2013, to an estimated 3,965,340. This level of first-quarter population increase was the largest for the province since 1972. Alberta gained 13,440 net interprovincial migrants during the quarter, the largest first quarter net inflow of interprovincial migrants ever recorded.

CALGARY ECONOMYCalgary’s economy expanded by an estimated 3.7 per cent in 2012, as a result of strong growth in the goods-producing sector and healthy retail activity. Slower growth of 3.0 per cent is projected for this year, while in 2014, real GDP in the Calgary CMA is forecast to expand by 3.4 per cent.

Calgary’s good-producing sector is projected to grow by 3.3 per cent in 2013, led by a 4.6 per cent growth in manufacturing output. In addition, primary and utilities output is forecast to increase 3.4 per cent in 2013, due to continued strong demand for the province’s natural resources. The services-producing sector is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2013, led by a 4.4 per cent growth in retail and wholesale trade output. Growth is expected to be more modest across all other service industries, including the public sector.

Consumer prices rose 2.5 per cent year-over-year in June 2013, matching the level of inflation seen the previous month and the largest increase since January 2012. Similar to Alberta as a whole, significant cost increases were recorded in natural gas (+44 per cent) and gasoline (+9.5 per cent).

Regular unleaded gasoline in Calgary averaged 119.4 cents/litre in the second quarter of 2013, up from 106.4 cents/litre the previous quarter and 115.7 cents/litre year-over-year. The price for regular gasoline in Calgary was close to 10 cents/litre below the national average of 129.1 cents/litre in the second quarter of 2013.

Housing starts in the Calgary CMA are projected to decline 9.0 per cent in 2013 to 11,700 units and increase 3.4 per cent in 2014 to 12,100 units after increasing 38 per cent in 2012. Single-detached starts are expected to increase 4.0 per cent in 2013 and 1.6 per cent in 2014. Multi-family starts, however ,are forecast to fall 20 per cent in 2013, before increasing by a modest 5.5 per cent in 2014. The lower starts forecast for 2013 will be a result of increased supply and rising inventories in the multi-family segment, along with a projected moderation in employment growth and net migration.



Calgary and Edmonton’s apartment vacancy rate fell to 1.2 per cent in April 2013, from 2.5 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively the previous year. Calgary and Edmonton had the lowest apartment vacancy rate in Canada in April 2013 while St. John, New Brunswick had the highest rate at 10.4 per cent. The Calgary CMA and Toronto CMA had the second highest average rent for a two-bedroom unit in 2013 at $1,202 per month, both up from the previous year. Vancouver continued to post the highest average rent at $1,255 per month, while the lowest average rents for a two-bedroom apartment were seen in St. John ($703) and Montreal ($719).

The estimated value of building permit applications in the Calgary CMA was $1.38 billion in the first quarter of 2013, up 23 per cent from the fourth quarter of 2012 and up 22 per cent year-over-year. The value of non-residential permits increased 59 per cent quarter-over-quarter to $583 million, while the value of residential permits rose 6.0 per cent to $799 million.

Overall, Calgary’s office vacancy rate increased to 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, from 4.5 per cent the previous quarter - the second time in nine quarters the overall office vacancy rate has increased.

The city of Calgary’s population reached 1.120 million in 2012, a 2.7 per cent increase from 2011. Calgary’s population is forecast to increase 2.1 per cent to 1.144 million in 2013 and 2.2 per cent to 1.169 million in 2014. By 2018, Calgary is projected to have a population of 1.259 million. Approximately 19,660 people migrated to Calgary in 2012, more than double the previous year. Net migration is forecast to remain strong from 2013 to 2018, averaging approximately 13,700 per year.

Trends in the Labour MarketCANADAEmployment in Canada was virtually unchanged in June 2013, following an impressive gain of 95,000 jobs in May 2013 - the largest monthly increase in ten years. In April 2013, employment in Canada increased by only 12,500. Overall, the Canadian economy added an average of 56,300 jobs in the second quarter of 2013, compared to the previous quarter. Year-over-year, employment in Canada rose by 215,300 or 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2013.

Canada’s unemployment rate averaged 7.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2013, unchanged from the previous quarter but down from 7.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting Canada’s unemployment rate will decline from 7.1 per cent in 2013 to 6.3 per cent in 2015.

Canadian employers had an estimated 221,000 job vacancies in March 2013. With approximately 1.41 million unemployed in the same month, Canada had 6.4 unemployed people for every job vacancy, up from 5.9 in March 2012. With 46,300 vacancies and 105,700 unemployed, Alberta’s ratio was 2.3 unemployed for every job vacancy, up from a ratio of 1.8 the previous year. In March 2013, Alberta accounted for only 7.5 per cent of all unemployed people in Canada but 21 per cent of all job vacancies.

Employment rose in all three major age categories on both a quarterly and annual basis in the second quarter of 2013. Year-over-year, employment among seniors increased by 130,500 or 4.1 per cent, employment among core aged adults increased by 59,600 or 0.5 per cent, and employment among youth increased by 25,200 or 1.0 per cent.



On an annual basis, employment increased by 75,300 in trade and by 66,300 in health care and social assistance, accounting for two-thirds of the net new jobs in Canada in the second quarter of 2013. Employment gains were also significant in construction (+50,000), professional, scientific and technical services (+43,300) and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (+38,800).

ALBERTAEmployment in Alberta was virtually unchanged in June 2013, following an increase of 14,800 in April and 18,600 in May. May’s employment increase was the largest recorded since June 2011, when the province gained over 20,000 jobs. Overall, employment in Alberta increased by 20,900 or 1.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2013, compared to the previous quarter. Year-over-year, employment was up by 48,200 or 2.2 per cent, almost double the Canadian average of 1.2 per cent.

Alberta’s unemployment rate rose steadily throughout the second quarter of 2013 to average 4.7 per cent. This was up from an average of 4.6 per cent the previous quarter, and unchanged year-over-year. In June 2013, the province’s unemployment rate jumped to 5.0 per cent, a rate not seen since March 2012. However, the unemployment rate is on the rise because of a growing labour force, not because of a loss of jobs.

The average duration of unemployment in Alberta declined to 12.9 weeks in the second quarter of 2013, from 13.2 weeks the previous quarter. At the national level, the average duration of unemployment increased from 18.4 weeks in the first quarter of 2013 to 18.9 weeks in the second quarter of 2013. Alberta had the lowest average duration of unemployment in the second quarter of 2013, followed by Saskatchewan (13.3 weeks) and Manitoba (15.3 weeks).

Full-time employment in Alberta accounted for all of the employment increase in the second quarter of 2013. A nearly 75,000 annual increase in full-time employment was offset by a 26,500 annual decline in part-time work.

Older workers, those aged 55 years and over, led employment growth in Alberta in the second quarter of 2013, with employment for this age group up 5.0 per cent year-over-year. Employment also rose 2.5 per cent for core-aged adults aged 25 - 54 over the same time period. Employment for youth aged 15 - 24 declined 2.1 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter of 2013.

Employment increased in 10 of 18 industries in Alberta on an annual basis in the second quarter of 2013. The industries with the most notable employment gains in numbers included professional, scientific and technical services (+27,700 or +18 per cent), agriculture (+11,400 or +20 per cent), wholesale trade (+8,600 or +11 per cent) and construction (+8,400 or +3.7 per cent).

CALGARY CMAOn an annual basis, employment in the Calgary CMA has increased by 10,700 or 1.4 per cent since the second quarter of 2012.

The most significant gains in employment year-over-year in the second quarter of 2013 were in health care and social assistance (+12,200 or +17 per cent), professional, scientific and technical services (+11,200 or +13 per cent), business, building and other support services (+5,200 or +23 per cent), transportation and warehousing (+4,700 or +11 per cent) and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (+4,100 or +11 per cent). The significant increase in health care and social assistance employment is likely due to the ongoing staffing of Calgary’s new South Health Campus Hospital.



Overall, employment in the Calgary CMA is projected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2013, translating into approximately 12,500 net new jobs.

Calgary’s unemployment rate averaged 4.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2013, down from 5.0 per cent the previous quarter and unchanged year-over-year. Looking ahead, the Calgary Economic Region’s unemployment rate is projected to average 4.4 per cent in 2014, gradually declining to 4.0 per cent in 2018, as employment growth outpaces labour force growth.

Calgary’s participation rate was 73.3 per cent in June 2013, relatively unchanged throughout the second quarter of 2013. Edmonton’s participation rate climbed steadily throughout the quarter, increasing from 72.1 per cent in April 2013 to 72.8 per cent in June 2013.

Calgary and Area Employer SurveyThe purpose of the quarterly survey is to gather information from Calgary and area employers on their recruitment and retention practices and various other employment issues they are facing. Over the course of the year, employers will be divided into four categories based on the number of employees in the company and results of the survey will be reported on as follows:

Q1 2013: Large-sized companies with 100+ employees

Q2 2013: Medium-sized companies with 50 – 99 employees

Q3 2013: Small-sized companies with 10 – 49 employees

Q4 2013: Micro-sized companies with <10 employees

Q2 2013 SURVEY RESULTS: MEDIUM-SIZED COMPANIES (50 - 99 EMPLOYEES) The 200 companies surveyed employ approximately 14,071 people.

On balance, 14 per cent of the employers said their company expanded in the year prior to their survey, down from 21 per cent in Q2 2012.

One-fifth of the employers anticipate a business expansion in the next 12 months, down from approximately one-quarter in Q2 2012.

Twenty per cent of the employers reported they laid off approximately 350 workers in the three months prior to their survey.

Fifty-nine per cent of the employers said they had vacant positions that needed to be filled at the time of their survey, up slightly from 56 per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2012. Overall, employers reported they had 536 vacancies that needed to be filled in Q2 2013, down from 675 vacancies reported the previous year.

Twenty-eight per cent of the employers anticipate employment in their company will increase over the next three months.

Twenty-six per cent of the employers reported they employ approximately 260 temporary foreign workers.

Twelve per cent of the employers anticipate applying for or hiring approximately 130 temporary foreign workers in the 12 months following their survey.



The most commonly used recruitment method was word of mouth/employee referrals, followed by walk-ins/unsolicited resumes, the internet (career and classified websites), company website/internal postings, and employment agencies. About one-third of the employers said they use social media such as Face Book, Twitter, and LinkedIn as a resource, up slightly from 27 per cent of the employers in Q2 2012.

Forty-eight per cent of the employers reported having difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months prior to their survey.

Ten per cent of the employers anticipate they will have more difficulty recruiting qualified employees over the next 12 months.

Seventy-two per cent of the employers reported employees had voluntarily left their company in the prior year. Overall, the turnover rate was 10 per cent for companies surveyed in Q2 2013.

On balance, 15 per cent of the employers anticipate employee turnover will be lower over the next year.

The most commonly reported retention strategy for medium-sized employers is a positive work environment, followed by competitive salary and interesting/challenging work.

Thirty-eight per cent of the employers anticipate they will be focusing more on employee retention over the next year.

Supplemental Questions - Focus on Youth: Ninety per cent of the employers (180 employers) said their company currently employs youth (those under 25 years of age).

In addition, 161 of those employers were able to provide an estimate of the number of youth their company employs. Overall, 161 companies estimate they employ approximately 1,772 youth, which equates to 16 per cent of the total employees.

The number one challenge employers face in terms of employing youth is they don’t stay with the company for very long, indicated by 20 per cent of the employers.

Job Bank Analysis For Calgary (city), there were 10,296 job postings on the Job Bank in the second quarter of

2013, advertising for a total of 26,576 positions. The top five occupations were food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations (2,173 positions), material handlers (1,161 positions), construction trades helpers and labourers (1,134 positions), truck drivers, (1,052 positions) and retail salespersons and sales clerks (1,022 positions).

For the communities surrounding Calgary, there were 2,101 job postings on the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2013, advertising for a total of 6,091 positions. The top five occupations were food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations (651 positions), truck drivers (494 positions), construction trades helpers and labourers (314 positions), oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers (306 positions) and babysitters, nannies and parents’ helpers (243 positions).

For the Banff/Canmore area, there were 827 job postings on the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2013, advertising for a total of 2,404 positions. The top five occupations were food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations (464 positions), light duty cleaners (445 positions), food service supervisors (251 positions), cooks (197 positions) and hotel front desk clerks (140 positions).



The EconomyThe Calgary region’s economy is affected by global economic activity, economic conditions in the U.S., and economic drivers in the Canadian economy and elsewhere in Alberta.

Global EconomyGlobal activity remained subdued in the first quarter of 2013 as major economies such as Germany, China and Brazil posted lower than expected growth.1 The outlook appeared to be improving in the second quarter of the year, albeit at a slow and uneven pace. The general consensus among forecasters is that the global economy should gradually gain traction through the remainder of the year and strengthen into 2014.

“The global recovery is expected to proceed slowly, and the medium-term outlook will continue to be constrained by a number of factors. Although the rebalancing of private sector indebtedness is progressing, debt levels of households in major advanced economies remain elevated. In several countries, short-term growth prospects also continue to be boosted by additional fiscal stimulus, which cannot be sustained indefinitely against the backdrop of high and rising government debt levels. The high level of unemployment in many countries is also expected to restrain growth.”2

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects real global GDP to expand by 3.5 per cent this year and by 4.0 per cent in 2014.3 This year’s growth should be driven by stronger private demand in the U.S., a policy induced boost to growth in Japan, and moderate economic acceleration across emerging and developing nations – developments that should pave the way for a stronger global performance in 2014.

Reinforcing the improving outlook, global financial markets stabilized in response to the prevention of two of the most serious threats to economic stability over the past six months – the break-up of the euro area and a severe contraction in the U.S. triggered by the expiration of tax cuts and government spending programs.4 Further, the OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continued to improve in April 2013 for a sixth consecutive month, indicating overall growth momentum across OECD member economies.5

On the downside, global trade is expected to remain muted and unemployment levels elevated across a number of nations. Forecasters have also continued to highlight the heightened divergence in economic performance across different types of economies, reflecting the uneven progress toward recovery.6

“What was until now a two-speed recovery is becoming a three-speed recovery. Emerging market and developing economies are still going strong, but in advanced economies, there appears to be a growing bifurcation between the United States on one hand and the euro area on the other.”7



1 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - Global Outlook, June 18.2 European Central Bank, Monthly Bulletin, June 2013, p.11.3 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.2.4 Ibid., p.xv.5 OECD, Composite Leading Indicators Point to Moderate Improvements in Growth in Most Major Economies, June 10, 2013.6 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.xiii.7 Ibid.

Selected Annual Real GDP Growth Rates and Forecasts, 2012 to 2014

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2013.

ADVANCED ECONOMIESThe group of advanced economies is projected to expand by just 1.2 per cent this year – a continuation of the modest pace of growth recorded in 2012 with activity limited by ongoing balance sheet repair, fiscal tightening and tight credit conditions.8 Advanced economies are expected to post a better average annual growth rate of 2.2 per cent in 2014, underpinned by more accommodative monetary policies, a return of confidence and improving financial market conditions.9

The euro area crisis has continued to be a major force acting to curb growth momentum in advanced economies. Following a 0.6 per cent year-over-year output contraction in 2012, the region is projected to undergo a milder recession this year with an output contraction of 0.3 per cent.10 Growth is expected to strengthen gradually throughout the year as fiscal consolidation efforts ease, and in 2014 the region’s real annual output growth is expected to cross into positive territory to 1.1 per cent.

Despite drastic fiscal consolidation efforts, the U.S. economy is expected to post a moderate expansion of 1.9 per cent in 2013, with a more robust 3.0 per cent expected in 2014. In contrast, Japan’s real output growth this year will be boosted by government-induced fiscal and monetary stimulus programs, with output expanding 1.6 percent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2014.11

A major concern for forecasters has been the persistently elevated unemployment levels observed across a number of advanced economies, particularly in the euro area.

“The OECD warns governments that urgent action must be taken to reduce unemployment, which has risen to dangerous levels in many countries. Jobs are being created in some parts of the OECD, but more must be done. While labour markets are set to firm gradually in the United States and Japan over the coming two

-1.0%!

0.0%!

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2.0%!

3.0%!

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5.0%!

6.0%!

7.0%!

8.0%!

9.0%!

World Output!

Advanced! United States!

Euro Area! Emerging and

Developing!

Developing Asia!

China! Latin America!

% G

row

th!

2012! 2013(F)! 2014(F)!



8 Ibid, p.2.9 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013, p.10.10 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.2.11 Ibid.

years, unemployment is likely to continue to rise further in the euro area, stabilising above 12% only in 2014.” 12

EURO AREAThe risks emanating from euro area turmoil have eased somewhat, largely due to the institutional progress that was made over the course of 2012. In particular, the much-feared break-up of the euro area was averted, and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Outright Monetary Transactions program13 was successful in restoring some confidence and reducing market tensions. Structural labour market changes have also contributed to declining unit labour costs in Spain and Portugal – a key factor in improving competitiveness.14

However, indicators continue to suggest overall weakness in the euro area economy attributable to ongoing fiscal consolidation, weak confidence and tight credit conditions (especially in the periphery),15 with strong catalysts to propel a sustained recovery not readily identifiable.16

Euro area output has lingered in negative growth territory for six consecutive quarters. The region remained mired in recession during the first quarter of 2013 with real output growth declining by 0.2 per cent, following a sharper 0.6 per cent contraction in the previous quarter. The poor performance came on the back of deteriorating domestic demand into 2013, which contracted further with declining levels of investment. Weak levels of business and consumer confidence, uncertainty and fiscal consolidation efforts in conjunction with falling employment levels and consumer spending have worked together to depress output.17

Trade has been muted in the euro area since 2011. The weakness persisted though the first quarter of 2013, largely attributable to depressed levels of domestic and global demand. Trade is expected to remain subdued in the near term due to weak regional activity and the tepid global recovery.18 On the exchange rate front, the euro has remained somewhat resilient in recent months but is expected to edge down and finish the year at 1.25 against the U.S. dollar, broadly due to a stronger U.S. dollar and the sluggish pace of banking and structural reforms in the euro area.19

The euro area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), a measure of inflation and price stability, has trended down since October 2012. In February 2013, inflation dipped below 2.0 per cent and remained low at 1.4 per cent in May. Although the decline in the HICP was largely attributable to dropping energy prices, it was also reflective of generally weakened levels of domestic demand across the euro area. Inflation is expected to linger below the 2.0 per cent mark through 2013 and into next year, reflecting low capacity utilization and a slow pace of recovery.20 In response to low inflation and high unemployment rates, the ECB cut its policy rate by 0.25 points in May 2013 for the first time since July 2012 in an effort to stimulate the economy.21 The key policy rate stood at a record low 0.50 per cent. There has also been discussion that the interest rate may be cut further, possibly even crossing into negative territory, implying that banks would be charged for holding their money overnight.22 This



12 OECD, Global economy advancing but pace of recovery varies, says OECD Economic Outlook, May 29, 2013.13 Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) – a program allowing the ECB to buy unlimited amounts of European bonds on the secondary market, provided that member nations officially request assistance and accept conditionality.14 Scotia Economics, Global Views, May 3, 2013.15 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013, p.78.16 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - Global Outlook, June 18, 2013.17 ECB, Monthly Bulletin, June 2013, p.68.18 Ibid, p.71.19 Scotia Economics, Foreign Exchange Outlook, June 2013, p.3.20 European Central Bank, Monthly Bulletin, June 2013, p.5.21 Scotia Economics, Global Views, May 3, 2013.22 Reuters, ECB cuts interest rates, open to further action, May 2, 2013.

move would improve credit availability to cash-strapped small and medium-sized European businesses, although it may hold “unintended consequences”.23

The recent rate cut also provides support for peripheral banks, which have struggled with high lending rates. Banks in core economies are discouraged from lending to peripheral economies due to their financial unreliability, contributing to a growing financial fragmentation within the euro area.24 However, policy rate cuts may not be sufficient to stimulate economic activity as financial market fragmentation limits the power of accommodative monetary policy.25 Discussion regarding the implementation of a common banking union, which would broadly involve tighter oversight of European banks and a centralized resolution of banking issues to reduce financial fragmentation, has begun.26

“Banking Union is essential to ensure that we make permanent the progress made in reintegrating financial markets."27 Mario Draghi, President of the ECB

Labour markets have continued to exhibit weakness across the euro area in recent quarters. Employment deteriorated in the last quarter of 2012 by 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter, and total hours worked edged down 0.7 per cent. Employment is likely to have declined further in the first quarter of 2013 due to a general deceleration in economic activity.28 At the same time, the euro area’s unemployment rate crept up another 0.1 percentage point in May 2013 to reach 12.2 per cent. This figure reflected a total of 19.3 million jobless people across the euro area. The euro area youth unemployment rate, which is traditionally higher than the overall unemployment rate, stood at 23.9 per cent, with some 3.5 million young people out of work in May.29 Looking deeper, in the last quarter of 2012, the number of underemployed part-time workers in the euro area(persons who did not work full-time and lack a sufficient volume of work) stood at 6.2 million or 3.9 per cent of the labour force.30 Over the past year, this indicator registered a 7.0 per cent increase, only slightly below the 8.0 per cent increase observed between 2008 and 2011.

The potential additional labour force in the euro area last year, defined as jobless persons seeking a job but not immediately available for work and persons available for work but not actively seeking it, stood at 7.7 million (4.8 per cent of the labour force).31 Approximately 79 per cent of the potential additional labour force was comprised of persons available for but not seeking work (includes discouraged workers and persons prevented from job seeking due to personal or family circumstances).32

The negative growth of the euro area this year reflected not only weakness in the periphery but also deceleration in the core.33

Germany’s output decelerated 0.7 per cent in the final quarter of 2012 due to declining exports and investment. The first quarter of 2013 brought lackluster growth of 0.1 per cent, largely triggered by inclement weather and delays in construction and transport sector activity. Uncertainty has continued to persist and despite low interest rates, lending to households and non-financial sector businesses has been muted. However, expanding employment and improving business confidence are painting a



23 Reuters, Draghi says ECB looking at negative deposit rate with open mind, June 18, 2013.24 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.21.25 Scotia Economics, Global Views, May 3, 2013.26 Reuters, EU Leaders Pledge to Push on With Banking Union, June 28, 2013.27 Reuters, ECB is ready to act but governments must reform, says Draghi, June 26, 2013.28 ECB, Monthly Bulletin, June 2013, p.78.29 ECB, Eurostat, Unemployment statistics, July 2, 2013.30 ECB, Monthly Bulletin, June 2013, p.81.31 ECB, Eurostat, Unemployment statistics, July 2, 2013.32 ECB, Monthly Bulletin, June 2013, p.81.33 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.xiii.

brighter picture for Germany. Growth is forecast to strengthen somewhat and average 0.4 per cent this year, rebounding to 1.5 per cent in 2014, supported by robust domestic demand and improving global trade.34

France’s economic activity has remained sluggish over the past two years. Real annual GDP growth in 2012 was close to zero, and declined by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, weighed down by substantial fiscal consolidation.35 Looking forward, France is expected to post an overall growth contraction of 0.1 per cent this year due to fiscal consolidation efforts, weak export growth and low confidence.36 Minimal growth of just 0.9 per cent is projected for 2014. While policymakers have employed tax increases to generate revenue, a recent state audit cautioned that France will need to cut an estimated €28 billion in spending over the next two years in order to meet its deficit target. This may be a challenge for the government, as France has traditionally enjoyed a large public sector and generous welfare system with public spending accounting for about 57 per cent of GDP last year.37

Peripheral economies such as Italy and Spain are expected to undergo substantial output contractions this year averaging 1.5 and 1.6 per cent respectively, with positive but modest growth of less than 1.0 per cent anticipated for 2014.38

“The process of internal devaluation is slowly taking place, and most of these countries are slowly becoming more competitive. External demand, however, is just not strong enough to compensate for weak internal demand. Adverse feedback loops between weak bank, weak sovereigns, and low activity are still reinforcing each other.”39

JAPANMoving eastward, following the 2012 recession, Japan’s economy rebounded in early 2013 posting first quarter real GDP growth of 1.0 per cent, driven by robust household consumption and public investment in infrastructure.40 This positive development came with the Bank of Japan’s decisive policy plan to revive the economy through the adoption of monetary and fiscal stimulus programs, a higher inflation target, and structural reforms.41 A sizable fiscal package of 10.3 trillion yen (2.2 per cent of GDP) was introduced in January 2013, with roughly half of it aimed at boosting public works spending. Further, a 4.4 trillion yen boost to reconstruction spending was also included in this year’s budget. However, with gross public debt estimated at 220 per cent of GDP in 2012, Japan will need to adopt a strong fiscal consolidation plan soon in order to achieve its planned budget surplus target by 2020.42

The Bank of Japan’s monetary framework aims to achieve a 2.0 per cent inflation target over the next two years by roughly doubling Japan’s monetary base through purchasing government bonds.43 Despite the boost, some investors are skeptical regarding the viability of Japan’s reforms, reflected in the recent volatility in Japanese assets. Some investors fear that the higher desired levels of domestic consumption, corporate profits and investment may not necessarily materialize.44 The Bank of Japan



34 Deutsche Bundesbank, Monthly Report, June 15, p.1.35 Eurostat, Flash estimate for the first quarter of 2013, May 15, 2013.36 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.xiii.37 New York Times, State Auditor Warns That France Must Cut Spending, June 27, 2013.38 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.2.39 Ibid., p.xiii.40 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - Global Outlook, June 18, 2013.41 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.xiii.42 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013, p.75.43 Ibid.44 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - Global Outlook, June 2013.

is optimistic and expects growth to hover significantly above recent trend, averaging 3.0 per cent this fiscal year and leveling off to 1.5 per cent next year.45

CHINAChina’s economy decelerated during the first quarter of 2013 and posted a 7.7 per cent year-over-year output gain, below expectations and down slightly from 7.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012.46 Much of the quarterly downturn was due to weaker levels of domestic investment, with private consumption and net trade driving growth. Preliminary data suggested that the downward trend in investment and bank lending had continued into the second quarter of the year.47 Due to diminished levels of investment and inflation moderating to about 2.0 per cent, forecasters generally do not anticipate any monetary tightening until at least late 2013.

China’s economy is expected to grow by about 7.6 per cent in 2013, a slight reduction compared to last year’s average of 7.8 per cent and below earlier forecasts of 7.9 per cent.48 While some of the downward adjustment was due to relatively weak first quarter reports, it is also a reflection of the recently inaugurated administration’s willingness to accept slower growth in order to address mounting financial imbalances and structural reforms. The yuan also performed better than any other global currency during the first half of 2013, with high appreciation placing pressure on Chinese exporters and possibly dampening trade patterns.49

The Chinese economy is projected to pick up in 2014 and post growth of about 8.0 per cent.50 While China will maintain its position as a global leader in growth, the government’s plan to shift away from investment and exports is expected to result in growth rates below recent historical highs, particularly if domestic factors impede the transition toward new domestic growth drivers such as household spending and job creation.

“Along with generally soft data, the trade exposure to a struggling Europe, and tougher property purchase restraints have prompted a further reduction in our forecast for 2013 GDP growth in China to 7.5%. That’s three ticks off 2012’s disappointing clip. For 2014, we see things reviving modestly to an 8% gait aided by a turnaround in key export markets. That pace is about 2%-pts below the historical average, but may be at the higher end of the new normal, given assorted challenges, including a longer term decline in workforce size due to family size restrictions.”51

Other domestic concerns that may impede consumer-driven growth include a variety of labour market concerns such as an unexpected decline of the working age population in 2012, and the government’s consideration of hard emission caps to be implemented in 2016 possibly slowing labour demand.

“Moving from the current investment-led to a consumer-driven model may not be so easy, especially nearer term. High housing costs, retirement needs of an aging population and a weak social safety net create a strong incentive for individual savings. Some indicators suggest easing growth is starting to slow labour demand, affecting income growth.”52



45 Bank of Japan, Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, April 2013, p.17.46 ECB, Monthly Bulletin, May 2013.47 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - Global Outlook, June 18, 2013.48 TD Economics, Economic Snapshot, June 26, 2013.49 Scotia Economics, Foreign Exchange Outlook, June 2013.50 Ibid.51 CIBC Economics, Economic Insights, June 6, 2013.52 Ibid.

INDIAGrowth remained subdued in India during the first quarter of 2013, with a year-over-year real GDP expansion of 4.8 per cent posted.53 Forecasters expect India’s economy to gain momentum through the remaining quarters and finish 2013 with an annual growth rate of 5.5 per cent; picking up steam in 2014 with growth of about 6.0 per cent. Growth is expected to remain significantly below the 8.0 per cent average recorded over the past 10 years.

Part of India’s slowdown has been the result of restrained investment growth, which increased by 3.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2013 relative to the historical average of 8.7 per cent since 2006.54 The investment environment in India is limited by structural barriers such as poor infrastructure, power generation concerns, and a complex regulatory system.

“According to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2013 report, India ranks 132nd out of 185 countries in terms of the ease of doing business, comparing particularly poorly in the “paying taxes”, “starting a business”, “dealing with construction permits”, and “enforcing contracts” categories (the corresponding rankings are: 152, 173, 182, and 184, respectively, out of 185 countries).”55

While the Indian government recently formed a committee intended to implement reforms that would allow for faster and easier approval of large land and investment projects, the tenuous political position of the governing coalition may slow progress on developing reforms.

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to continue to provide monetary stimulus in the form of reductions to the benchmark rate, which has cumulatively been reduced by 100 basis points so far in 2013. The successive cuts were justified by an environment of decelerating economic growth and easing inflation. While consumer price growth remains high, the wholesale price index decelerated to 4.9 per cent in April 2013 from 8.1 last September.56 Inflation is expected to drop further as the price effects of supply bottlenecks, administered price increases and adverse weather conditions fade.57

BRAZILSignificant uncertainty has dampened Brazil’s economic outlook. First quarter 2013 real GDP growth came in at 1.9 per cent, an improvement over the 1.4 per cent in the prior quarter but below expectations of 2.0 per cent.58 Low unemployment, strong credit growth, and modest real income gains have supported a gradual recovery, but industrial activity has remained weak with most growth being driven by the sensitive agricultural sector.59 Structural constraints such as a complex tax system, poor infrastructure, and the deteriorating credit rating of public-sector banks have limited investment activity. Inflation has also been high so far in 2013, trending near or above the central bank’s 6.5 per cent upper limit which prompted a policy rate hike in April 2013. Brazil’s short-term prospects are related to the willingness of foreign investors to provide financing for domestic projects and infrastructure development, as well as global demand for Brazilian exports.

In tandem with subdued economic prospects, the arrival of the 2014 World Cup to Brazil has also been controversial. Brazil’s sports ministry estimated the event-related budget for stadiums and transport infrastructure at $12.7 billion (nearly three times the spending of Germany during the 2006 World



53 Scotia Economics, Global Views, June 7, 2013.54 Ibid.55 Ibid.56 Ibid.57 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013.58 Scotia Economics, Foreign Exchange Outlook, June 2013.59 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013.

Cup).60 At the same time, half of the stadiums required to host the event have not yet been completed, and deficiencies in the country’s education and health care systems are prevalent.61 Anti-World Cup sentiment has fueled widespread discontent with the government and rising social tensions.

The economic benefits from hosting an event of such magnitude have also been hotly debated. The World Cup may generate a higher Brazilian GDP due to increased tourism and foreign direct investment, as well as spinoff activity for local economies as a result of heightened construction and merchandising activity. In addition, countries that host major sporting events may benefit from so-called “legacy” effects where the improvements in infrastructure are enjoyed long after the event has ended, and also enhance their chances of hosting future events.62 Conversely, the costs of hosting such events appear to have outweighed the gains in a number of case studies. One study found that the 2006 World Cup in Germany generated significantly fewer than the 10,000 new jobs that were anticipated from increased levels of investment. Economists also found that costs may spiral out of control, as in the 2004 Olympic Games in Greece which ended up costing nearly $11 billion – a figure that doubled the initial budget.63 While it has yet to be revealed whether the Brazilian economy will benefit considerably from the event, past evidence suggests that it is a gamble.

Forecasters expect real GDP to pick up through the remainder of the year and finish with an annual gain of 2.5 per cent, improving to 3.1 per cent in 2014.64

SOUTH KOREAAfter slowing in 2012, South Korea’s economy picked up in early 2013 due to renewed export growth, primarily to China – South Korea’s largest trading partner.65 With exports accounting for more than half of GDP, bolstered trade activity has led to improvements in the outlook for business and consumer confidence, investment, and employment. The boost to trade was much-needed, as weak demand in the U.S. and Europe had significantly affected South Korea’s export sector. However, significant employment growth has not yet been realized, and the general outlook is not without downside risks. Residential investment has declined to 60 per cent of its pre-crisis level and house prices have declined since mid-2012, prompting a government initiative to encourage activity in the struggling housing market.66 Capital outflows have also been a concern as risk-averse investors shift to Japanese safe-haven assets.67 High levels of household debt, reaching 164 per cent of household disposable income at the end of 2012, may also act to curb growth momentum on the consumer side. Nevertheless, very low levels of inflation trending around 1.5 per cent provides the government with ample room for spending initiatives and stimulative interest rate cuts in the near-term. On average, South Korea’s real GDP is projected to increase by 2.5 per cent in 2013, improving to 3.5 per cent next year as the global backdrop continues to improve.

RUSSIARussia’s economy slowed somewhat during early 2013 and is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2013 compared to 3.4 per cent last year.68 The Russian economy stalled partially due to its high degree of dependence on energy exports, for which global demand has generally declined; along with



60 CBC, Brazil Protests Show Cost of Hosting Major Sports Events, June 29, 2013.61 CNN, Poor, Middle Class Unite for Brazilian Riots, July 24, 2013.62 CBC, Brazil Protests Show Cost of Hosting Major Sports Events, June 29, 2013.63 University of KwaZulu-Natal Press South Africa’s World Cup: A Legacy for Whom?, Chapter 2.64 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - Global Outlook, June 18, 2013.65 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013.66 Ibid.67 Scotia Economics, Global Views, April 5, 2013.68 Scotia Economics, Foreign Exchange Outlook, June 2013.

supply-side issues regarding the accessibility and costliness of new oil field production.69 High inflation, uncertainty surrounding the recently adopted oil-price-based fiscal rule, and a slight decline in oil prices have damaged investor and consumer sentiment, offsetting the gains generated by higher natural gas prices. The environment of uncertainty led to a contraction in investment and an increase in capital outflows during the first quarter of 2013, along with disappointing industrial production, exports and retail sales figures.

FORECAST RISKSRisks to the global economy have receded since mid-2012 as policymakers were successful in avoiding the break-up of the euro area and most of the drag impact of a sharp fiscal contraction in the U.S. However, downside risks continue to dominate the global outlook.

“The balance of risks to the outlook for world activity and trade are still tilted to the downside. Risk factors include the possibility of weaker than expected global demand, spillovers from slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in the euro area, geopolitical issues and imbalances in major industrialised countries, which could have an impact on developments in global commodities and financial markets.”70

In the euro area, the main risks involve adjustment fatigue, as job creation and output growth have so far failed to materialize. Weak balance sheets, impaired credit channels in the periphery as well as slow progress towards a single banking union have also impeded the adjustment process.71 Weak economic improvement across the euro area coupled with growing social and political unrest has the potential to generate a sudden rise in financial volatility.72

In the U.S., risks emanate from Congress failing to address the automatic spending cuts at the end of the fiscal year, resulting in an economic shock that may result in lower than expected growth in 2013 and beyond.73 There are also risks on the monetary policy front, following an announcement of a potential reduction in the Federal Reserve’s sizable quantitative easing program in the coming months. The reduction in monetary stimulus may result in a sharp rise of U.S. government bond yields and heightened financial market volatility.74 This development may negatively impact emerging and developing economies, which are traditionally vulnerable to shifting preferences as risk-averse investors shift their investment to relatively safer U.S. markets.75

In the medium term, risks also emanate from the absence of solid fiscal consolidation plans by the U.S. and Japan – economies burdened with high fiscal deficits and private debt.76

On the upside, the U.S. economy has exhibited some improvement and emerging and developing economies have avoided a “hard-landing” scenario. As well, general financial market conditions have improved substantially, though it will take time for this to be reflected in other areas of the economy.77



69 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013.70 ECB, Monthly Bulletin, June 2013, p.10.71 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.xvi.72 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - Global Forecast, June 18, 2013, p.4.73 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.xvi.74 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast-Global Outlook, June 18, 2013, p.4.75 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013, p.48.76 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013, p.xvi.77 EBC, Monthly Bulletin, June 2013, p.10.

U.S. EconomyU.S. real GDP growth posted a softer than anticipated gain of 1.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2013. While this reading stood markedly above the 0.4 per cent growth in the prior quarter, it disappointed in that the initial preliminary estimate of 2.4 per cent was downwardly revised. The lackluster growth was partially the result of weak government spending and deteriorating export activity, counteracted by rebuilding inventories and a robust 2.6 per cent (downwardly revised from an initial 3.2 per cent) gain in consumption expenditure.78

Overall, economic indicators suggested that the U.S. economy continued to recover at a steady pace into the second quarter of the year. The housing market gained further momentum with home prices surging at double-digit rates, and new residential construction and sales nearing five-year highs.79 Bolstered by rising housing prices, measures of consumer confidence improved in May 2013 for a third consecutive month, reaching a level not observed since January 2008.80 Rising consumer sentiment was also reflected in June’s 15.9 million annualized auto sales figure – the strongest reading since 2007.81 Real personal incomes also rose 0.5 per cent in May 2013 relative to April, boosting consumer spending (+0.2 per cent)82 and retail trade (+0.6 per cent).83

On the downside, despite robust job creation observed in the second quarter of 2013, the U.S. unemployment rate has remained persistently elevated, hovering above the 7.5 per cent mark.84 Further, small business confidence dropped in June, ending two months of steady increase.85

“…(More) owners are reporting negative sales trends than positive ones. Until growth returns to the small-business half of the economy, it will be hard to generate meaningful economic growth and job creation.”86

Given softer-than-anticipated first quarter real GDP growth and the environment of ongoing fiscal consolidation, growth in the second quarter of 2013 is likely to remain muted.87 On the upside, economic performance in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen as the impacts of fiscal consolidation diminish. Looking forward, overall annual growth in the U.S. economy is forecast at 1.9 per cent this year due to the rapid pace of fiscal deficit reduction, but should resurge to 2.7 per cent in 2014.88

“Economic growth is expected to remain moderate in 2013, and then pick up noticeably in 2014 as the labour market recovery gains momentum. Tax increases are taking a significant bite out of incomes this year, but sizable gains in equity and real estate prices have boosted household wealth and should provide support to private consumption and residential investment. Given ample corporate cash flow and an improved demand outlook, business investment is likely to rise steadily over the projection.”89



78 Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, July 10, 2013.79 BMO Capital Markets, Bond Yield Backup: Past, Present, Future, June 28, 2013.80 TD Economics, Data Release: Recovery in consumer confidence continues in May, June 25, 2013.81 TD Economics, Data Release: Auto sales surge ahead in June, July 2, 2013.82 TD Economics, Data Release: Income and spending up soundly in May, June 27, 2013.83 TD Economics, Data Release: Retail sales hold their own in May, as Americans are wealthier than ever, June 13, 2013.84 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Situation Employment Summary, June 2013, July 5, 2013.85 TD Economics, Data Release: Small business owners feel slightly less optimistic in June, July 9, 2013.86 National Federation of Independent Business, July Report: Small Business Optimism Drops in June, Ends 2 Months of Increases, July 2013.87 BMO Capital Markets, Bond Yield Backup: Past, Present, Future, June 28, 2013.88 IMF, Press Release: Concluding Statement of the 2013 Article IV Mission to the United States of America, June 14, 2013.89 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013, p.68.

Real GDP Growth (quarterly percent change, annualized rate)

Source: BMO Capital Markets, North American Outlook, June 28, 2013.

Downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and involve a stronger than anticipated impact of fiscal consolidation, a weaker external backdrop and higher structural unemployment.90 An untimely monetary stimulus withdrawal also poses risks to economic stability.91

“The Federal Reserve will need to carefully navigate through the completion of quantitative easing. A premature exit could jeopardize the fragile recovery, but waiting too long could result in a disorderly exit from the programme with sizable financial losses.”92

U.S. Economic Outlook (% change, period-over-period annualized)

Category Q1* Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 2013 2014

Real GDP 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 3.1Consumer Expenditures 2.6 1.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 1.9 2.2 3.1Business Investment 0.4 3.3 6.8 8.1 5.5 7.3 7.0 8.0 8.0 4.4 6.7Federal Funds Target Rate 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13Housing Starts (000s: a.r.) 0.96 0.90 0.98 1.02 1.08 1.14 1.20 1.28 0.78 0.97 1.17Current Accout Balance ($blns: a.r.) -425 -425 -434 -435 -436 -439 -440 -443 -440 -430 -440Exchange Rate: US¢/C$ 99.1 97.8 96.3 95.0 93.8 94.4 96.0 97.5 100.1 97.1 95.4Unemployment Rate (%) 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 8.1 7.5 6.8Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.3 1.7

Source: BMO Capital Markets, North American Outlook, June 28, 2013.* Actual data or most recent estimates.

2013 2014 Annual

0.0%!

0.5%!

1.0%!

1.5%!

2.0%!

2.5%!

3.0%!

3.5%!

4.0%!

Q1 12!

Q2 12!

Q3 12!

Q4 12!

Q1 13!

Q2 13F!

Q3 13F!

Q4 13F!

Q1 14F!

Q2 14F!

Q3 14F!

Q4 13F!

Gro

wth

Rat

e!

Actual! Forecast!



90 IMF, Press Release: Concluding Statement of the 2013 Article IV Mission to The United States of America, June 14, 2013.91 Ibid.92 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013, p.68.

HOUSING MARKETThe U.S. housing market recovery remained on track in May 2013, bolstered by low borrowing rates and relatively subdued housing prices. According to forecasts, the rebound in housing activity is expected to continue, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points to real GDP growth this year and next.93

“Residential investment has strengthened and is finally making a meaningful contribution to overall output growth. The inventory of homes for sale has normalised, vacancies have declined, and financing rates remain extremely favourable by historical standards.”94

New residential construction increased by 6.8 per cent in May 2013 to reach an annualized rate of 914,000 units. While this figure came in below market expectations of 950,000 units,95 it represented an increase of 29 per cent from May 2012.96 Activity was driven by growth in both single and multi-family units. Although single-family starts rose just 0.3 per cent to 599,000 units on the month, likely due to poor weather conditions, they were up 16.3 percent relative to one year ago.97 Multi-family starts rose to 306,000 units in May 2013, up 25 per cent relative to April and up 69 per cent year-over-year. Regionally, monthly residential construction activity intensified in the Southern U.S. (+17.8 per cent) and decreased markedly in the Midwest (-13.7 per cent). On a year-over-year basis, increases in both single and multi-family residential construction were observed across all U.S. regions.98

In May 2013, issuance of building permits, a strong indicator of future construction activity, stood at an annualized rate of 974,000, down 3.1 per cent from April 2013.99 The decline was driven by a 10 per cent drop in multi-family permits to 352,000, following an outsized gain in April. Single-family permits edged up 1.3 per cent to 622,000 in May – their best pace in five years.100 On a year-over-year basis, the number of building permits issued jumped 21 percent above the May 2012 figure of 806,000.101

A resurgence of the U.S. housing market is critical to employment in the construction sector. In June 2013, unemployment levels in the construction sector declined to a five-year low, with employment at its highest level since August 2009. However, construction employment is still down by about 25 per cent relative to its pre-crisis peak in 2006.102

The market for new residential sales in May has also exhibited signs of steady improvement. Sales of new single-family houses stood at an annualized rate of 476,000 in May 2013, up 2.1 per cent relative to April and a solid 29 percent relative to the May 2012 reading of 369,000. In May 2013, the average new home sales price stood at $307,800; and the existing inventory of new housing was estimated to take 4.1 months to deplete.103



93 RBC Economics, Economic and Financial Market Outlook, June 28, 2013.94 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013, p.69.95 TD Economics, Data Release: Housing Starts Bounce Back in May, June 18, 2013.96 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction in May 2013, June 18, 2013.97 National Association of Home Builders, Housing Starts Rise 6.8 Percent in May, June 18, 2013.98 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction in May 2013, June 18, 2013.99 TD Economics, Data Release: Housing Starts Bounce Back in May, June 18, 2013.100 National Association of Home Builders, Housing Starts Rise 6.8 Percent in May, June 18, 2013.101 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction in May 2013, June 18, 2013.102 Associated General Contractors of America, Press Release: Construction Unemployment Falls to 9.8 Percent, Lowest June Level Since 2008 as All Industry Segments Adds Jobs and Hours For the Month and Year, June 5, 2013.103 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction in May 2013, June 18, 2013.

New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Seasonally Adjusted)and Average Sales Price of New Homes Sold in the U.S.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

In May 2013, existing home sales in the U.S. soared 4.2 per cent from April to reach an annualized rate of 5.18 million, a high not observed since November 2009. On a year-over-year basis, this reading was up 13 per cent. Similarly, the average existing home price was $208,000, up 15 percent from May 2012, its highest level since October 2005. The total inventory of existing homes for sale edged up 3.3 per cent in May 2013 to 2.2 million units, or a 5.1 month supply at current prices. Despite the monthly uptick in inventory, existing home prices have continued to rise. Rising prices are generally beneficial as they allow households to repair existing negative equity positions (owing more on their mortgages than their home is worth).104

“The housing numbers are overwhelmingly positive. However, the number of available homes is unlikely to grow, despite a nice gain in May, unless new home construction ramps up quickly by an additional 50 percent.”105

Distressed homes, including foreclosures and short sales, comprised 18 percent of May’s sales, unchanged from April but down from 25 per cent in May 2012. This was the lowest monthly share recorded since October 2008, when tracking began. On average, homes in foreclosure sold for about 15 per cent below market value in May 2013, and short sale homes were discounted by 12 per cent.

Responding to an improved housing market, in May 2013 the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate increased to 3.54 from 3.45 per cent in April. Higher mortgage rates are not immediately expected to significantly deter any ongoing housing market developments, though the pace of re-financing activities may be slowed. Housing demand is expected to remain high, supported by low borrowing costs and strong household formation activity.106

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104 TD Economics, Data Release: Existing home sales surpass 5 million threshold with authority, June 20, 2013.105 National Association of Realtors, Existing-Home Sales Rise in May with Strong Price Increases, June 20, 2013.106 TD Economics, Data Release: Housing Starts Bounce Back in May, June 18, 2013.

FINANCIAL AND CURRENCY MARKETSFiscal drag emanating from automatic spending cuts subtracted an average of 1.2 percentage points from U.S. growth over the past two quarters,107 and is expected to reduce overall growth in 2013 by 1.4 percentage points.108 As of the start of the second quarter 2013, approximately 65 per cent of the drag had come from the defense sector; and not quite half of the total required spending cuts had been implemented.109 While the impact of fiscal consolidation in the public sector should diminish into 2014, ongoing spending restraint and the expiration of tax provisions are forecast to shave about 0.8 percentage points off overall growth next year. Along with the direct expenditure effect, the sequestration has also damaged business confidence and restrained investment and hiring.110

The sequestration will also result in the furlough (unpaid days off) of government workers. Even with defense cuts already enacted, the Department of Defense announced that 680,000 employees will be required to take 11 unpaid days off work beginning in July 2013.111 Non-defense agencies will also face similar furloughs, with the number of workers affected expected to stretch into the millions.

The outlook regarding U.S. fiscal policy is mixed. The federal budget deficit has declined at a quicker pace than was anticipated, allowing Standard & Poor’s (S&P) to upgrade its view of U.S. credit to stable.112 However, the debt ceiling will again become a concern toward the end of 2013, raising concerns of a partial government shutdown. Congress has not yet agreed upon a fiscal 2014 budget and has relied on “continuing resolutions” to fund the government.113 There is also the issue of a potential withdrawal of the quantitative easing (QE) program, creating a fragile economic climate where the drag impacts of sharp cuts to public spending are more acutely felt.114

At its meeting in June 2013, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made no changes to its QE policy, but repeated the earlier statement that they were “prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation”.115 Further, that the policy of purchasing $45 billion per month in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage backed securities would likely be slowed “later this year” and stopped “around midyear” of 2014. It was noted that these dates were dependent on the performance of the labour market, inflation, and general downside risks to the economy, specifically noting an unemployment rate “in the vicinity of 7 per cent” as a threshold for stimulus removal. As part of its QE exit strategy, the majority of FOMC members see the Federal Reserve holding its mortgage backed securities to maturity rather than selling them.116

The general consensus of forecasters is that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its QE program in the autumn of this year, initiating gradual reductions until ending its purchases during the spring of 2014.117 118 Interest rate hikes are not anticipated until at least early to mid-2015.



107 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - U.S. Economic Outlook, June 18, 2013.108 TD Economics, Economic Snapshot, June 26, 2013.109 RBC Economics, Economic and Financial Market Outlook, June 2013.110 BMO Capital Markets, North American Outlook, June 28, 2013.111 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast, June 18, 2013.112 BMO Capital Markets, North American Outlook, June 28, 2013.113 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - U.S. Economic Outlook, June 18, 2013.114 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013.115 BMO Capital Markets, Rates Scenario, July 4, 2013.116 TD Economics, Data Release: Chairman Bernanke suggests that unemployment rate of 7% is “substantial” and enough to end asset purchases, June 19, 2013.117 BMO Capital Markets, Rates Scenario, July 4, 2013.118 RBC Economics, Economic and Financial Market Outlook, June 2013.

A common concern among forecasters is that the economy is not yet prepared for the withdrawal of the QE program. Worries include the sharp reaction of financial markets to the announcement of a possible withdrawal, the fragile condition of the ongoing recovery, and the market’s “addiction” to the purchases that have occurred in 48 of the past 57 months for a gross total of $3.6 trillion.119

The hope is that the majority of the sequestration’s resulting drag will have passed by the time the Federal Reserve announces a slowdown of its stimulus plan, revealing a sturdier foundation to the U.S. economy.

LABOUR MARKETThe release of the latest U.S. non-farm payroll employment data was highly anticipated as it reflected not only the overall strength of the U.S. labour market but also provided insight as to the timing of a potential reduction in monetary policy stimulus on part of the Federal Reserve.

In the first half of 2013, the labour market outlook was largely positive with the U.S. economy managing to churn out an average of 202,000 positions per month despite the period of ongoing fiscal austerity.120

“The U.S. job market has been able to sustain momentum even when confronted by the fiscal drag on economic growth stemming from sequestration.”121

In July 2013, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) upwardly revised its employment reports for April and May 2013. April’s reading of 149,000 was boosted to a solid 199,000 and May’s reading of 175,000 was increased to 195,000. The solid pace of employment creation continued into June 2013 with an estimated 195,000 new jobs generated, exceeding market expectations of 180,000.122

In June 2013, the private sector was the sole driver of job growth, where approximately 202,000 new positions were created, mostly in the service-producing sector. The most pronounced employment gains were posted by the leisure and hospitality industry (+75,000) as well as the professional and business services industry (+53,000). In contrast, the most significant contraction in employment was registered by the government services industry (-5,000).123

Labour market indicators have continued to perform unevenly. While some 177,000 new workers joined the labour force to drive the participation rate up 0.1 percentage points to 63.5 per cent,124 the unemployment rate remained elevated at 7.6 per cent. On the upside, the number of long-term (27 weeks or more) unemployed stood at 4.3 million, down by 1.0 million over the last 12 months.125

Alternative measures of unemployment have also shown inconsistency. In June 2013, the “all-in” jobless rate126 edged up 0.5 percentage points relative to May, reaching a four-month high of 14.3 per cent due to increases in the number of involuntary part-time and discouraged workers.127 The number of involuntary part-time workers trended up by 322,000 to 8.2 million in June, suggesting that the U.S. economy did not yet have the capacity to generate a sufficient number of full-time jobs. The number of discouraged workers (not currently seeking employment as they believe no jobs are available for



119 BMO Capital Markets, Rates Scenario, July 4, 2013.120 BMO Capital Markets, U.S. Jobs Landscape Looking Better, July 5, 2013.121 TD Economics, Data Release: U.S. economy creates 195K new jobs in June, July 5, 2013122 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Summary June 2013, July 5, 2013.123 Ibid.124 TD Economics, The Weekly Bottom Line, July 5, 2013.125 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Summary June 2013, July 5, 2013.126 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force (including discouraged workers and those who did not seek employment due to schooling or family responsibilities 4 weeks prior the survey), plus total involuntary part-time workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.127 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Summary June 2013, July 5, 2013.

them) stood at 1.0 million in June 2013, up by 206,000 relative to June 2012 and by 191,000 relative to May 2013.128 An increase in the number of discouraged workers can be costly as it translates to loss of potential output, the erosion of worker skills, a reliance on thinning social nets, and lower government revenue.

U.S. Monthly Net Job Change, Unemployment Rate and “All-In” Jobless Rate

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

INTERNATIONAL TRADEThe U.S. trade deficit widened to $45.0 billion in May 2013, deteriorating by $4.9 billion from April and exceeding market expectations of $40.1 billion. This development was attributable to weaker export activity and robust import growth, as the improving domestic economy outpaced sluggish global growth.129

In May 2013, imports rose 1.9 per cent relative to the previous month, propelled by overall growth in goods imports in the categories of food and beverage (+3.9 per cent), automotive (+3.1 per cent) and consumer goods (+2.3 per cent), implying resurged domestic demand. U.S. energy imports also increased by 5.2 per cent in May as imports of crude oil edged up 3.1 per cent relative to April. However, this increase was primarily attributable to May being 3.3 per cent longer than April. In fact, May’s daily crude imports slumped somewhat by about 15,000 barrels per day. Total petroleum imports also remained significantly below their levels recorded a year ago, indicating stronger domestic production and improving energy efficiency.130 In contrast, May’s exports deteriorated 0.3 per cent from April due to declining goods exports (-0.7 per cent) with losses in categories such as consumer goods (-7.3 per cent) and industrial supplies (-2.2 per cent). Looking forward, U.S. exports are expected to strengthen in tandem with an improving global backdrop.

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128 Ibid.129 TD Economics, Data Release: Trade deficit widens sharply as domestic recovery outpaces global growth, July 3, 2013.130 Ibid.

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China increased by nearly 16 per cent to $27.9 billion in May 2013, driven by a 2.2 percent decline in exports coupled with a 10 per cent increase in imports. In contrast, the U.S. goods trade deficit with the European Union edged down by almost 15 per cent to reach $10.8 billion in May.131

In February 2013, the U.S. and E.U. took steps towards establishing a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The TTIP is intended “to expand bilateral trade and investment between them, creating an economic stimulus from the resulting structural reform and giving a boost to growth and jobs.”132 If realized, the TTIP will be the most sizable bilateral free trade agreement to date, covering close to 50 per cent of global output, 30 per cent of global merchandise trade, and 20 per cent of global foreign direct investment. The OECD found that the potential gains from the TTIP to the U.S. and E.U. could be as significant as 3.0 to 3.5 percent of annual GDP.133

U.S. Goods Trade Balance (Goods Exports - Goods Imports) by Selected Countries

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services.

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131 United States Census Bureau, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Highlights, July 3, 2013.132 OECD, The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Why Does it Matter?, February 13, 2013.133 Ibid.

Canadian EconomyThe Canadian economy started the year on confident footing with first quarter 2013 real GDP expanding at a robust annualized pace of 2.5 per cent, up markedly from the sluggish 0.9 per cent growth posted in the prior quarter. The first quarter reading represented the highest level of growth recorded in six quarters and significantly exceeded the Bank of Canada’s earlier forecast of 1.5 per cent.134 However, the components of growth suggested a shift away from domestic drivers of growth such as housing and consumer expenditure, toward exports which are conditional on the pace of the U.S. and global economic recovery.

“After five subpar quarters, Canada’s economy firmed in Q1 to 2.5% growth, almost entirely on the back of the first material advance in exports in a year. However, spending by consumers, businesses and governments slowed, and residential construction fell the most in more than two years. Aggressive incentives kept auto sales in the fast lane, but slowing credit growth implies a few speed-bumps ahead. Household credit is rising at the slowest rate in eleven years. Sagging resource prices have undercut business investment. Devoid of domestic growth drivers, Canada needs a faster U.S. economy (the destination of three-quarters of goods exports) to sustain its pickup.”135

Looking at available real GDP data, it appeared that the solid economic growth recorded in the first three months of 2013 was unlikely to extend into the second quarter of the year.136 Canada’s economy advanced at a slow rate of 0.1 per cent on the month in April 2013, significantly below the average monthly gain of 0.3 per cent posted in the prior three months.137 Growth was fuelled by the service sector, which expanded by 0.3 per cent in April. Significant monthly gains were posted by the wholesale trade and finance and insurance industries, which each registered 0.6 per cent growth on the month. Retail trade also contributed to growth, with output increasing 0.5 per cent on the month, underpinned by stronger auto sales. The arts and entertainment sector posted the highest rate of growth at 3.4 per cent, possibly boosted by the extended hockey season.138



134 Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report Summary, April 2013.135 BMO Capital Markets, North American Outlook, June 28, 2013.136 CIBC Economics, Canadian GDP: Growth Tracks a Slower Tempo, June 28, 2013.137 Ibid.138 TD Economics, Data Release: Canadian economy limps into Q2, July 28, 2013.

CANADIAN ECONOMY AT A GLANCE




Real GDP (% change)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Real GDP

(% change)2.5 0.9 0.8

CAD/USD

Q2 2013

Q1 2013

Q2 2012

CAD/USD0.98 0.99 0.99

CPI Inflation (% change)

May 2013

Apr 2013

May 2012CPI Inflation

(% change)0.7 0.4 1.2

Overnight Rate (%)

Q2 2013

Q1 2012

Q2 2012Overnight

Rate (%)1.0 1.0 1.0

Population (millions of persons)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Population

(millions of persons) 35.1 35.0 34.7

In contrast, the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector contracted 1.5 per cent, down for the first time in seven months. Construction activity also slumped 0.4 per cent due to declining levels of both residential and non-residential building.139

On balance, other second quarter economic indicators pointed to domestic conditions remaining moderate. The Canadian housing market has continued to normalize, with levels of residential construction and existing home sales nearing their historical averages.140 At the same time, household credit growth advanced at its slowest pace in 17 years, suggesting that Canadians are becoming increasingly cautious of debt accumulation.141 Further, the Canadian economy managed to churn out an impressive 95,000 jobs in May 2013 and the unemployment rate has remained largely unchanged hovering around the 7.1 per cent mark, bolstering consumer confidence. According to the Conference Board of Canada, consumer confidence edged up in the first two months of the second quarter of this year, although it remains low relative to historic averages. On the business side, confidence among small and medium-sized firms continued to wane in the second quarter of 2013 due to expectations of weak demand.142 Uncertainty also acted to limit the investment intentions of Canadian firms in the second quarter, according to the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey.143

Inflationary pressures have remained significantly below the Bank of Canada’s 2.0 per cent target so far in the second quarter of the year, suggesting that weak global demand and a slower pace of consumer spending are placing downward pressure on Canadian prices.144 On the upside, this development provides the Bank with enough leverage to keep monetary policy accommodative for some time, with a rate hike not anticipated before the second half of 2014.

The recent flooding in Alberta probably shaved a couple of points from growth in June 2013, but is also expected to influence the overall economic performance of Canada this year and into 2014, largely due to intensified activity resulting from reconstruction projects.

“Somewhat paradoxically, following an anticipated sharp decline in activity in June, we expect there to be a strong economic bounce back beginning in July. Furthermore, the rebuilding process over the remainder of the year will boost growth in 2013 and provide strong momentum heading into 2014.”145

Looking forward, TD Economics has upwardly revised its 2013 and 2014 growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points each, incorporating the impact of rebuilding in Alberta. The Canadian economy is expected to grow 1.8 per cent in 2013, gaining traction in 2014 on the back of stronger export growth brought on by rising U.S. demand and a weaker Canadian dollar.146



139 Statistics Canada, Gross domestic product by industry, April 2013, June 28, 2013.140 TD Economics, 2013-2014 Canadian Regional Housing Market Outlook, June 3, 2013.141 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - Canadian Economic Outlook, June 18, 2013.142 TD Economics, Data Release: Uncertain economic growth trajectory influencing Canadian investment intentions, July 8, 2013.143 Ibid.144 TD Economics, Data Release: Subdued inflation to hold the Bank of Canada’s hand, June 21, 2013.145 TD Economics, Provincial Economic Forecast, July 10, 2013.146 Ibid.

Historic and Projected Real GDP Growth (annualized percentage change) and Employment Change

Source: TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast, June 18, 2013.

“The outlook shows growth picking up through 2013 and 2014 despite waning residential investment, gradual household deleveraging and fiscal consolidation. The projected demand shift toward business investment and exports will depend heavily on the expected US economic pick-up, including in housing which has substantial Canadian content. With the resource sector accounting for an increasingly large part of growth, recovering commodity prices and improving pipeline and other transport infrastructure will help to accelerate spending on big capital projects while improving access to foreign markets.”147

A key risk to the Canadian outlook stems from a potential monetary stimulus withdrawal in the U.S., which could destabilize financial markets and lead to rising interest rates in Canada, thus affecting rate-sensitive sectors of the economy such as autos and housing, which are typically major drivers of growth.148

“For Canada, the impact will mainly be felt through financial markets. Canadian government bond yields would likely face upward pressure alongside their U.S. counterparts, possibly leading to higher borrowing costs for households and businesses.”149

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147 OECD, Economic Outlook, May 2013, p.101.148 BMO Capital Markets, North American Outlook, June 28, 2013.149 TD Economics, The Federal Reserve’s Exit Strategy and Implications for Canada, June 19, 2013.

Canadian Economic Outlook (% change, period-over-period annualized)

INTEREST RATEIn late May 2013, the Bank of Canada announced that the overnight rate would remain targeted at 1.0 per cent, a trend unchanged since September 2010. The Bank has maintained a rather dovish stance for both external and domestic reasons, including a recovering but still muted level of export growth that has been restrained by anemic foreign demand; diminished competitiveness in part due to the persistently elevated Canadian dollar; high levels of household indebtedness; and subdued inflationary pressures.150

“Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. With continued slack in the Canadian economy, the muted outlook for inflation, and the constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector, the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.”151

May’s announcement, although not surprising, was of interest as it was the final data release before former Bank governor Mark Carney stepped down to join the Bank of England. Economists, however, do not expect significant changes in monetary policy in the near term from his successor governor Stephen Poloz.152

“Despite publicized concerns that his previous position as head of Export Development Canada may lead to an easing bias in favour of a weaker Canadian dollar, the Bank of Canada has never explicitly targeted the exchange rate and, in fact, is mandated to conduct monetary policy to achieve its 2% inflation target. We expect a continuation of this policy.”153

BMO forecasters generally expect overnight rates to remain at 1.0 per cent until the third quarter of 2014, before trending up to a less accommodative level of 3.5 per cent by 2016.154 Similarly, TD Economics expects interest rates to remain anchored at their current level until the end of 2014.155



150 Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent, May 29, 2013.151 Ibid.152 BMO Capital Markets, North American Outlook, June 28, 2013.153 TD Economics, Data Release: Interest rates remain on hold as governor Mark Carney leaves the Bank of Canada, May 29, 2013.154 BMO Capital Markets, North American Outlook, June 28, 2013.155 TD Economics, Data Release: Interest rates remain on hold as governor Mark Carney leaves the Bank of Canada, May 29, 2013.

HOUSING MARKETFollowing a decade of strong construction activity and price growth in the housing sector, the Canadian housing market has entered a period of cooling.156 Over the past year, the number of housing starts and home sales declined markedly and housing price growth moderated, largely in response to the implementation of tighter mortgage rules. Recent indicators suggest that the housing market is beginning to exhibit signs of stabilization at lower, more sustainable levels that are consistent with the rate of household formation.157

“Housing markets have followed the soft-landing script written by policymakers. The deep dive in existing home sales that followed last year’s tougher mortgage rules has subsided, leaving sales (outside of hard-hit British Columbia) near longer-term average levels. Similarly, housing starts are steadying around household formation rates.”158

On an annualized basis, national housing starts edged down to 199,586 units in June 2013 from 204,616 in May.159 The decline was primarily driven by a 2.7 per cent drop in the number of urban area starts.160 Multi-unit construction also trended down in June, and construction of single-family homes tumbled 4.1 per cent to 62,743 - a low not observed since the depths of the recession.161

On a regional basis, British Columbia posted a considerable 40 per cent increase in residential construction activity on the month, while homebuilding activity decelerated across the rest of Canada, with the most sizable declines observed in Atlantic Canada (-18.0 per cent) and Ontario (-11.8 per cent).162

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) expects residential construction activity to strengthen into 2014 as general economic conditions improve. On an annual basis, housing starts are forecast at 182,900 units this year, down almost 18 per cent from 2012. In 2014, annual housing starts are expected to pick up somewhat to 188,900 units.163

In contrast to cooling residential construction, the existing home sales market strengthened in June 2013. Existing home sales in Canada were up 3.3 per cent in June relative to May, marking the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Intensification in buying activity was observed across most major urban centres, with the most sizable gains in Victoria, Vancouver, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg and Montreal.164

“Increases in mortgage interest rates likely prompted some buyers with pre-approved mortgages to jump off the sidelines and into the market in June, particularly in larger, more expensive urban markets where affordability is strained.”165

Along with stronger home sales, in June the number of newly listed homes for sale dropped 0.5 per cent on the month indicating a slight tightening of the market. The national sales-to-new listings ratio rose 0.2 percentage points from May to 53.8 per cent, remaining firmly anchored in balanced territory.



156 TD Economics, 2013-2014 Canadian Regional Housing Outlook, June 3, 2013.157 RBC Economics, Canadian home resale market perked up in May, June 15, 2013.158 BMO Capital Markets, North American Outlook, June 28, 2013.159 CMHC, June 2013 Housing Starts in Canada, June 2013.160 Ibid.161 TD Economics, Data Release: Starts continue to impress, July 9, 2013.162 Ibid.163 CMHC, Housing Starts Projected to be Lower in 2013 With a Modest Increase in 2014, June 25, 2013.164 CREA, Canadian Home Sales Improve in June, July 15, 2013.165 Ibid.

The number of months of available housing inventory stabilized further in June to an estimated 6.1 months, down from 6.3 months in the prior month.166

The average national home price was $386,585 in June 2013, up 4.8 per cent relative to one year ago, the strongest increase since October 2011. The increase is likely due to demand for housing resuming in some regions, particularly Vancouver, following regional housing market corrections.167 The average home price based on the aggregate MLS home price index (which corrects for the quality of sales) edged up 2.3 per cent in June on a year-over-year basis, with the most significant price gains observed in Calgary, Saskatoon and Toronto, while price growth remained subdued throughout most of British Columbia.168

Looking forward, the Canadian Real Estate Association expects home sales to reach 443,400 units in 2013, down 2.5 per cent relative to 2012, with activity in most provinces likely to cool due to the impact of stricter mortgage rules. A rebound in national sales to 464,300 units is expected in 2014 reflecting anticipated improvements in economic prospects and persistently low mortgage rates, placing activity only slightly below its 10-year average.169

A slight downside risk to the housing outlook is the prospect of rising interest rates next year.

“Interest rates are expected to head higher over the medium term … Even as interest rates creep back up, the combination of growing incomes and slowing home price growth should keep affordability decent in most markets.”170

Regional Historic and Forecasted Existing Home Sales(Annual Per Cent Change)

Source: TD Economics, 2012-2014 Canadian Regional Outlook Housing Market Outlook, June 3, 2013; Canadian Real Estate Association.

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166 Ibid.167 Ibid.168 TD Economics, Data Release: Canadian housing on the mend, July 15, 2013.169 CREA, CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast, June 17, 2013.170 TD Economics, 2013-2014 Canadian Regional Housing Market Outlook, June 3, 2013.

HOUSEHOLD DEBTAn ongoing concern for Canadian policymakers has been the elevated level of credit market debt relative to disposable income. However, it appears that households have started to show increasing restraint when it comes to borrowing. Average household indebtedness declined for a second consecutive quarter in the first quarter of 2013 and stood at about 162 per cent of disposable income. The decline was due to softer credit growth and moderate but steady income gains. Household credit growth advanced 4.5 per cent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2013, marking the slowest pace of growth in ten years, reflecting a moderation in consumer durables spending.171 According to the latest data, the savings rate was upwardly revised to 5.5 per cent marking a high (outside of the recession) not seen since 1996.172 Debt servicing costs also remain historically low, and about one third of Canadian households are debt free.

“The slowing in household debt accumulation is easing concerns that the elevated level of consumer debt has made the economy vulnerable such that even a modest weakening in growth could snowball into a major downturn.”173

Other factors also suggest that Canadian households have managed to maintain stable financial positions. The household net worth-to-disposable income ratio (which accounts for both debts and assets) has edged up to 686 per cent, close to a high not observed since 2007. Further, Canadians have maintained high levels of equity in their homes with just 4.0 per cent of homeowners possessing less than 10 per cent home equity.174

Despite the recent moderation, levels of Canadian indebtedness remain undoubtedly high, continuing to hover around the debt-to-disposable income ratio of 163 per cent observed in the U.S. before the onset of the economic downturn.

While there has been a notable shift in consumer attitudes toward borrowing, debt accumulation is likely to persist in the near term, exposing heavily indebted households to the dangers of potentially low income growth, rising borrowing rates, and lower housing prices.175

“The aggregate debt-to-income ratio is unlikely to move sharply lower in the near term. Even assuming a further modest deceleration in credit demand, income gains are constrained by moderate job growth and public sector restraint. Meanwhile, other measures of balance sheet strength could soften given the potential for some weakening in asset prices (housing and/or equity markets).”176

INFLATIONThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most relevant estimate of the cost of living for most Canadians. The CPI compares the retail prices of a representative "shopping basket" of goods and services at two different points in time. The Bank of Canada monitors changes in the CPI and decides when to tighten monetary conditions to keep inflation within the range of the inflation-control target it has set. The inflation-control target has been renewed five times since the Bank of Canada adopted it in 1991, most recently in November of 2011. The target currently aims to keep consumer inflation at the 2.0 per cent midpoint of a range of 1 to 3 per cent.



171 Scotia Economics, Global Views, June 21, 2013.172 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - Canadian Economic Outlook, June 18, 2013.173 RBC Economics, Economic and Financial Market Outlook, June 2013.174 Scotia Economics, Global Views, June 21, 2013.175 Ibid.176 Ibid.

In May 2013, inflation increased slightly with the overall CPI edging up 0.7 per cent from a year ago following a weaker 0.4 per cent increase in April.177 The Bank of Canada’s core CPI (which excludes the most volatile elements of the headline basket as well as the impact of indirect taxes) also rose 1.1 per cent in May 2013 on a year-over-year basis, following an increase of the same magnitude in the prior month. As a whole, May’s inflation report suggested that upward price pressures remain muted. On a year-over-year basis, the strongest price declines in May were recorded by transportation (-0.5 per cent), health and personal care (-0.4 per cent) as well as recreation, education and reading items (-0.2 per cent). Very few significant price increases were observed in May.

“Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+2.5% y/y) was the only component to rise above 2.0% during the month, led by rising cigarette prices. Food and shelter costs contributed the most to Canadian inflation in May (they are the category consumers spend the most on), but were still only up 1.3% from year ago levels. Shelter costs were bolstered by higher natural gas prices (+15.4%), rent and property taxes.”178

Inflation has remained nearly a non-issue in recent quarters, and forecasters do not expect core CPI to return to the Bank of Canada’s target of 2.0 per cent until 2015.179 Price growth has been limited by factors including a weak global backdrop, sub-par domestic growth, and increased competition among discount retailers.

CANADIAN DOLLARThe loonie steadily depreciated through the second quarter of 2013 relative to the U.S. dollar, declining from an average of slightly over US$0.98 in April 2013 to just above US$0.96 by the end of June 2013. Prior to the downward trend that began last autumn, the dollar had been bolstered by factors including rebounding commodity prices, the triple-A credit rating of the Canadian government, prompt rate hikes on part of the Bank of Canada as well as avoiding unconventional monetary tools such as quantitative easing.180

However, a variety of factors have contributed to the recent depreciation, with the CAD losing nearly 9 U.S. cents since September 2012. These factors include the loss of Canada’s growth advantage, the softening of crude oil and other commodity prices, the absence of an increase in the overnight rate anticipated in the near-term, net foreign outflows from Canadian equities, and the overall strengthening outlook of the U.S. dollar.181 As well, the Bank of Canada has come under the leadership of Stephen Poloz, who some forecasters believe favours exporters and a weaker dollar given his experience with the Export Development Corporation.182 The impending slowdown and eventual cessation of the Quantitative Easing program in the U.S. is also expected to result in a stronger U.S. dollar and correspondingly, a weaker loonie.

“That the Fed will buy fewer bonds and eventually end QE implies that fewer U.S. dollars are going to be injected into the global financial system. All else equal, this should boost the value of the Greenback. Indeed, the broad trade-weighted US dollar is up by more than 3% since May with the majority of the impact on the world’s “smaller” currencies, including the Canadian dollar.” 183



177 Statistics Canada, The Daily: Consumer Price Index, May 2013, July 18, 2013.178 TD Economics, Data Release: Subdued inflation to hold the Bank of Canada’s hand, June 21, 2013.179 Ibid.180 TD Economics, The Loonie Set to Fly South, May 9, 2013.181 Ibid.182 Scotia Economics, Foreign Exchange Outlook, June 2013.183 TD Economics, Dollars & Sense, July 11, 2013.

Forecasts regarding the future direction of the Canadian dollar are somewhat mixed. TD Economics expects the loonie to continue to depreciate to around US$0.90 to US$0.95 over the next six to twelve months, primarily due to the strength of the U.S. dollar as the Quantitative Easing program is gradually withdrawn.184 In contrast, CIBC and BMO forecasts anticipate further depreciation through the remainder of 2013, followed by a period of appreciation toward parity in 2014 as Canada’s trade position improves and Bank of Canada tightening speculation picks ups.185 186

While the anticipated further depreciation of the Canadian dollar is partially symptomatic of the relatively weakened position of the Canadian economy, the cheaper loonie should act to improve the competitive position of the export sector, particularly in manufacturing, which has lost some ground to the U.S. in recent years.

“From a longer-term perspective, a move down in the value of Loonie into this lower range would bring it more in line with economic fundamentals. Despite trading above parity, estimates of the equilibrium value of currency in recent years have generally continued to land in the US$0.80-0.90 range. A depreciation in the currency towards its equilibrium value would help the competitiveness of Canada’s exporters. For several years, observers have stressed that given record levels of household debt and a move towards fiscal restraint, the economy must increasingly be driven by exports and business investment. A lower Loonie should help facilitate that shift.”187

Historical Exchange Rate (CAD/US quarterly averages)

Source: Source: Bank of Canada, Rates and Statistics, Exchange Rates.

1.00! 0.99!

0.96!

0.83!0.80!

0.86!

0.91!

0.95!0.96!

0.97! 0.96!0.99!

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1.02!

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1.01! 1.01!0.99!

0.98!

0.60!

0.65!

0.70!

0.75!

0.80!

0.85!

0.90!

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184 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast - Canadian Economic Outlook, June 18, 2013.185 BMO Capital Markets, Rates Scenario, July 4, 2013.186 CIBC World Markets, Economic Insights, July 8, 2013.187 TD Economics, The Loonie Set to Fly South, May 9, 2013.

INTERNATIONAL TRADECanada’s international trade deficit stood at $303 million in May 2013, a significant improvement over April’s reading of $951 million.188 However, the improved trade position was due to a sharp decline in imports (-3.2 per cent) which outpaced a lesser decline in exports (-1.6 per cent). These results suggested that anemic global demand had continued to take its toll on the Canadian trade sector, and that a sustained rebound in Canada’s export sector has yet to be observed.189

In May, the most pronounced import decline was seen in energy products (-18.4 per cent), the sixth consecutive month of falling crude oil imports. The downward trend in oil imports may be attributable to the rise of railway shipments of Canadian crude oil from Western Canada to Eastern refineries, substituting relatively more expensive imports from abroad.190 Metal and non-metallic mineral imports also dropped (-38.8 per cent).191 Auto imports deteriorated in May (-4.7 per cent) following three consecutive months of gains, driven by an 8.9 per cent drop in the import of light trucks and passenger cars. Imports of auto parts also dropped, suggesting weakness in related domestic manufacturing activity.192

On the export side, the largest gain in May 2013 was recorded in the industrial machinery and equipment category (+4.3 per cent). Further, exports of energy products strengthened by 1.2 per cent in May, fuelled by a 3.3 per cent rise in the export of crude oil and offset by a decline in refined petroleum energy products (-7.0%) and natural gas (-6.2 per cent).193 In contrast, export activity related to autos and auto parts and metal and non-mineral products declined by 3.8 per cent and 15 per cent respectively, outstripping monthly export gains in other categories.194

Although the trade position of Canada technically improved in May, exports cooled relative to levels observed earlier in the year, again reflecting weak global demand and heightened uncertainty. Despite the softer performance, forecasters remain optimistic that Canadian export activity will pick up, propelled largely by a resurgence in U.S. demand.

“We continue to look to the second half of the year for a more robust performance in Canada’s export sector. Several signs point to the U.S. economy gaining momentum which, in turn, should help facilitate the transition in the Canadian economy to more export-led growth.”195

In the medium term, Canadian trade volumes could increase considerably if the presently negotiated Canada-European Union trade agreement is completed. The deal would provide Canada with access to the largest single common market in the world, resulting in an estimated 20 per cent increase in bilateral trade and a $12 billion increase in Canada’s annual GDP in addition to potentially generating 80,000 new jobs.196 On the downside, the trade talks between Canada and the European Union have deteriorated as of late largely due to conflicting interests and protectionist sentiment exhibited by both negotiators. Given the present trade stalemate, the chances that the Canadian government will be able to secure a free trade agreement with its European counterpart in the near term appear to be slim. This development is expected to negatively impact Canadian producers aiming to expand



188 Statistics Canada, Canadian international merchandise trade, May 2013, July 3, 2013.189 CIBC Economics, Canada’s May Trade Balance: Two-Way Trade Slows, July 3, 2013.190 Ibid.191 TD Economics, Data Release: Canada’s trade picture improves, but not in a good way, July 3, 2013.192 CIBC Economics, Canada’s May Trade Balance: Two-Way Trade Slows, July 3, 2013.193 Statistics Canada, Canadian international merchandise trade, May 2013, Date Modified: July 3, 2013.194 TD Economics, Data Release: Canada’s trade picture improves, but not in a good way, July 3, 2013.195 Ibid.196 Government of Canada, Benefits for Ontario of a Potential Canada-EU Trade Agreement.

markets abroad.197 However, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has remained optimistic and determined to achieve trade terms that would closely align with Canadian interests.

“In terms of our own negotiations, I think you could say maybe there are some advantages, maybe there are some disadvantages. But I don't think it changes the fundamental calculus, which is we should stay at the table until we get a deal that is in the best interests of Canadians.”198

Canadian Trade Balance, Seasonally Adjusted (billion of $)

Source: Statistics Canada.

POPULATIONIn the first quarter of 2013, the Canadian population increased by 85,000 to reach an estimated 35,141,500. This figure represented an increase of 0.2 per cent from the same period a year ago. In the first quarter of the year, international migration accounted for 73 per cent of population growth, with natural increase accounting for just 27 per cent.199

First quarter 2013 net international migration edged up by 62,700, an increase of 4,600 relative to the prior quarter representing a high not observed since the first quarter of 2009. Canada welcomed 58,200 immigrants during the first quarter, up 2,600 on a year-over-year basis. In addition, the number of new permanent residents also increased by 2,000 to an estimated 14,900. In contrast, natural increase slumped 6.8 per cent compared to the same period in 2012.200

International migration has increasingly become an essential source of population growth for Canada. Based on the 2011 National Household Survey, TD Economics estimated that there were 6.8 million immigrants (foreign born) in Canada, representing 21 per cent of the total population, up from 15 per

-4!

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197 ATB Economics, Daily Economic Comment: London (not) calling, July 29, 2013.198 CBC, Leaders downplay reports of stalled Canada-EU trade talks, June 18, 2013.199 Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates, vol. 27. no. 1., June 13, 2013.200 Ibid.

cent in 1971, suggesting that the nation is becoming increasingly diverse. Between 2006 and 2011, nearly 1.2 million newcomers arrived in Canada, with one third of immigrants coming from the Philippines (13.1 per cent), China (10.5 per cent) and India (10.4 per cent).201

Geographically, there has been a notable shift in the regions in which newcomers choose to settle. Between 1991 and 2000, the vast majority of immigrants settled in either Ontario or British Columbia. However, by the 2006 to 2011 period a notable shift in preferences was observed with the proportion edging down to about 60 per cent. The Prairie Provinces nearly doubled their combined share of newcomers from 10.3 per cent to 19.7 per cent over the same period, owing to robust economic performance and accommodative immigration policies such as the Provincial Nominee Programs.202

Immigration Destination According to Province, 2006 - 2011

Source: TD Economics, An Overview of the Immigrant and Visible Minority Populations in Canada, May 22, 2013.



201 TD Economics, An Overview of the Immigrant and Visible Minority Populations in Canada, May 22, 2013.202 Ibid.

Alberta EconomyThe majority of Alberta’s economic indicators continued to be quite positive in the first half of 2013. Construction activity is still expanding, particularly on the residential side. In the first quarter of 2013, housing starts in the province totaled 7,000 units, up 8.0 per cent year-over-year. Job creation is among the strongest in Canada with employment in Alberta up by 48,200 or 2.2 per cent year over year in the second quarter of 2013. Attractive job prospects continue to draw in workers from outside the province. In the first quarter of 2013, Alberta gained 13,440 net interprovincial migrants, the largest first quarter net inflow of interprovincial migrants ever recorded. In addition, Alberta retailers continue to see their sales increase at a good pace. In May 2013, retail sales in the province hit $6.13 billion, a new record high for any single month of sales, up 1.6 per cent from the previous month and up 7.9 per cent year-over-year.

Alberta Economic Outlook (% Change)

Source: The Conference Board of Canada, E-Data System

Uneven economic growth is expected across Canada in 2013, however Alberta, along with Newfoundland and Labrador (+6.0 per cent), Saskatchewan (+3.8 per cent) and Manitoba (+2.2 per cent), are forecast to outpace the national average of 1.8 per cent. Alberta’s economy is forecast to moderate slightly to 3.0 per cent growth this year, following strong growth of 3.9 per cent in 2012. 203

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2000!20

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hang

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GDP - Alberta! Employment - Alberta! GDP - Canada!

Calgary & Area Labour Market Report - First Quarter 2013


203 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook: Alberta, Economic Forecast, Spring 2013.

ALBERTA ECONOMY AT A GLANCE




Real GDP (% change)

2014 (f)

2013 (f) 2012

Real GDP (% change)

2.8 3.1 3.9

WTI Price (US$/barrel)

Q2 2013

Q1 2013

Q2 2012WTI Price

(US$/barrel)94 94 93

Nat. Gas Price (C$/GJ)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Nat. Gas

Price (C$/GJ) 2.77 2.75 2.17


Jun 2013

May 2013

Jun 2012CPI Inflation

(% change)2.3 2.3 1.3

Housing Starts (units)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Housing

Starts (units)6,989 8,524 6,484

Building Permits ($ billion)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Building

Permits ($ billion) 4.23 3.89 3.31

Retail Sales ($ billion)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Retail Sales

($ billion)17.8 17.5 16.8

Wholesale Sales ($ billion)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Wholesale

Sales ($ billion) 19.5 19.4 18.9

Average Weekly Earnings ($)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Average

Weekly Earnings ($) 1,100 1,091 1,062

EI Beneficiaries (thousands of persons)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012

EI Beneficiaries (thousands of persons) 29.0 30.0 31.5


Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Population


“While key economic indicators have remained positive in Alberta so far this year, risks have mounted in the energy sector. Oil pipeline bottlenecks are putting downward pressures on Canadian heavy crude oil prices relative to the benchmark West Texas Intermediate. Insufficient pipeline capacity could slow development of the oil sands in Alberta over the remainder of the decade, which would considerably alter Alberta’s economic growth potential.”204

In 2013, growth in Alberta is projected to be strong in retail and wholesale trade (+4.4 per cent), finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (+3.9 per cent), construction (+3.4 per cent) and mining (+3.3 per cent). In 2014, slowing natural gas production and a decline in government spending will slightly dampen growth in the province to 2.8 per cent. The manufacturing industry is projected to grow at a more rapid pace in 2014, with output expected to increase 2.8 per cent in 2014, following growth of 1.3 per cent in 2013.

“Private investment, however, will be strong, and the construction industry will boom thanks to spending on oil sands development. Manufacturers will scramble to provide the key inputs necessary for these megaprojects.”205

In 2014, Newfoundland and Labrador (+3.4 per cent), British Columbia (+3.0 per cent) and Alberta (+2.8 per cent) are projected to lead the nation in economic growth.206

Contributions to Alberta Real GDP Growth, Select Industries2013 and 2014 Forecast

Source: The Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook: Alberta, Economic Forecast, Spring 2013.

0.0%! 1.0%! 2.0%! 3.0%! 4.0%! 5.0%!

Agriculture!

Mining!

Manufacturing!

Construction!

Utilities!

Transportation & warehousing!

Wholesale & retail trade!

Finance, insurance & real estate!

Community, business & personal services!

Public administration!

All industries!

% Change!

2013f! 2014f!



204 Ibid, p.iv.205 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook: Alberta, Economic Forecast, Spring 2013, p.64.206 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook: Alberta, Economic Forecast, Spring 2013.

ENERGY INDUSTRYIn the second quarter of 2013, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices, the North American benchmark for high quality oil, averaged $94 U.S. per barrel, unchanged from the first quarter of 2013. More importantly, Western Canada Select (WCS) prices, the Canadian heavy oil benchmark, increased from an average of $62 U.S. per barrel to $75 U.S. per barrel over the same time period.

During the second quarter of 2013, the WCS-WTI dollar differential narrowed considerably to an average of $19 U.S. per barrel, compared to $32 U.S. per barrel the previous quarter.207 Baytex Energy Corp. believes a combination of factors contributed to the improvement in heavy oil differentials during the second quarter. These include a higher demand for heavy oil, a continued focus in crude by rail to access new markets, reduced supply due to a delay in the start-up of the Exxon Mobil Kearl project and reduced heavy oil inventory levels heading into the second quarter.208

The improved heavy oil pricing during the second quarter of 2013 has continued into the third quarter, according to Baytex, with the WCS-WTI dollar differential averaging $14 U.S. per barrel for the trading month of July. The August index is currently trading at $12 U.S. per barrel and the forward market for the remainder of 2013 and calendar 2014 is about $20 U.S. per barrel.209

“While we expect heavy differentials to remain volatile, there are a number of positive catalysts on the horizon that should ultimately contribute to sustained lower differentials and stronger heavy oil pricing going forward. This includes ongoing refinery conversions, continued increases in crude by rail volumes, and a number of pipeline capacity improvements and expansion projects. This view of tightening heavy oil differentials is supported by PIRA, in their most recent “North American Midcontinent Oil Forecast”, issued June 7, 2013. They are forecasting a WCS differential of approximately US$15.00/bbl in Q4/13 as more refineries run heavy and Canadian oil is able to move more freely to the US Gulf Coast.”210

Concerns over delays or cancellations of pending oil sands projects have temporarily subsided, as the break-even price for steam-generated bitumen production is currently estimated at approximately $60 U.S. per barrel. According to Statistics Canada, investment in oil sands engineering and structures is forecast to increase to $24 billion in 2013, from $22.5 billion in 2012.211

Future investment, however, is at risk. Looking ahead, bitumen production is projected to increase to 2.8 mmbd by 2017 or about 800,000 barrels per day. According to the Conference Board of Canada, domestic demand cannot accommodate these volumes and for prices to remain strong, Alberta will need more than one new pipeline to get its product to market.

“The current distribution system in Canada can likely accommodate incremental production through 2017 at best. Which means that, because of the long lead time associated with new pipelines and the massive oil sands projects, concrete action is required sometime in the next 18 months before producers begin to lose faith in their ability to get their wares to customers over the long-term. Several proposals have

Alberta needs more export pipelines to connect its incremental production to customers. If no concrete progress is made in the next 18 to 24 months, oil sands development will be severely threatened. - Conference Board of Canada



207 Baytex Energy Corp, Q2 2013 Heavy Oil Pricing Update - July 2, 2013.208 Ibid.209 Ibid.210 Ibid.211 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook: Alberta, Economic Forecast, Spring 2013, p.65.

been brought forward that can help alleviate these concerns, but each faces substantial regulatory and public opposition. The ultimate fate of these projects will play a determining role in the future of Alberta’s economy.”212

Benchmark Oil Prices (US$/Barrel)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration and Baytex Energy Corp.

In a report recently released by the Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada (PHRCC), labour requirements of the oil and gas industry are presented for two scenarios: a low growth scenario in which market diversification does not occur; and an expansion scenario in which Canadian suppliers are successful in gaining access to a range of international markets.213

Direct industry employment, according to the report, was estimated at over 195,200 in 2012, a 10 per cent increase from 2009.

“Depending on the industry activity scenario, direct employment over the next decade will increase between nine and 20 per cent, with employment levels reaching from 213,500 to as high as 233,900 by 2022. As many as 38,700 new positions may need to be filled [...] or as few as 18,300. The difference in job creation between the two scenarios is approximately 20,000 new jobs.”

But to achieve this employment growth, total hiring over the next ten years for direct oil and gas jobs will actually range between 125,000 and 150,000 new workers due to industry activity, age-related attrition and non-retirement turnover. And regardless of the scenario, the industry will experience a tight labour market for the following occupations: engineers, engineering technologists, drafting technologist and technicians, environmental and non-destructive testers and inspection technicians, steam ticket operators, drilling coordinators and productions managers, oil and gas field workers, labourers and operators, and tradespeople.214

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US$

/bbl!

Q2 2013 !Differential!

$19.16!

West Texas Intermediate (WTI)! Western Canada Select (WCS)!



212 Ibid, p.66.213 Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada, The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry, May 30, 2013.214 Ibid.

MAJOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECTSAs of June 2013, there were a total of 835 major construction projects on the books in Alberta worth an estimated $201.2 billion. Approximately 390 projects were proposed ($104.7 billion), 271 projects were under construction ($60.2 billion), 128 projects were announced ($21.4 billion), 10 projects were on hold ($9.6 billion) and 35 projects were completed or nearing completion ($5.1 billion).

Inventory of Major Alberta Projects

Source: Alberta Enterprise and Advanced Education: as of June 2013

HOUSING MARKETHousing starts in Alberta rose 7.8 per cent to 6,989 units in the first quarter of 2013, from 6,484 units in the first quarter of 2012, a result of a 15 per cent increase in single-family starts. Multi-family starts declined 4.4 per cent over the same time period. Among the seven major urban centres in the province, Grande Prairie recorded the largest annual gain in housing starts in the first quarter of 2013 (+124 per cent), followed by Red Deer (+72 per cent), Lethbridge (+55 per cent), Wood Buffalo (+46 per cent), Edmonton (+29 per cent) and Medicine Hat (+6.7 per cent). Total housing starts declined 22 per cent in the Calgary CMA over the same time period.215

“The decline in Calgary can be attributed to a 44.5 per cent reduction in new multi-family construction to 1,078 units. Some decline in Calgary was expected as the annual growth last year was over 60 per cent.”216

Housing starts in Alberta are forecast to moderate to 32,700 units in 2013, a 2.1 per cent decline from 2012. Starts in 2014 are forecast to increase slightly at an annual rate of 1.2 per cent to 33,100 units. The strong growth observed in 2012, particularly in the multi-family segment, added to supply and is forecast to slow the pace of new projects over the next year.

Project Sector# of

Projects

Value of Projects

($millions)% of Total

Oil Sands 66 115,211.6 57.3%Pipelines 44 24,245.7 12.1%Infrastructure 247 13,703.2 6.8%Oil and Gas 14 10,465.0 5.2%Power 25 9,073.0 4.5%Commercial / Retail 84 8,693.4 4.3%Institutional 115 6,802.6 3.4%Tourism / Recreation 90 3,775.4 1.9%Commercial / Retail and Residential 5 2,846.5 1.4%Residential 113 2,818.0 1.4%Chemicals and Petrochemicals 3 1,580.0 0.8%Mining 3 650.0 0.3%Biofuels 6 530.5 0.3%Agriculture and Related 6 288.4 0.1%Telecommunications 2 228.0 0.1%Other Industrial 8 163.4 0.1%Forestry and Related 3 105.0 0.1%Manufacturing 1 7.5 0.0%Total 835 201,187.2$ 100%



215 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Now Prairie Region, Second Quarter 2013.216 Ibid, p.2.

“Multi-family starts in Alberta are forecast to moderate to 14,500 units in 2013 before edging higher to 14,800 units in 2014. The cautious level of new multi-family construction during the economic downturn in 2009 has been followed by strong growth as multi-family starts increased 51 per cent in 2012 to 15,903 units. Sales of units under construction will compete with presales and slow the initiation of new projects this year. Provided supply levels move lower and inventories do not escalate, expect a higher level of starts in 2014.”217

Alberta Total Housing Starts, Actual and Forecast

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The number of homes sold in Alberta on the Multiple Listing Services (MLS) increased by 1.8 per cent year-over-year to 13,600 units in the first quarter of 2013. Resale price growth in the province was more robust, increasing 5.7 per cent year-over-year to an average of $377,435.218 Looking ahead, MLS sales in Alberta are projected to increase 2.0 per cent to 61,600 units in 2013 and 2.8 per cent to 63,300 units in 2014. The average MLS resale price in the province is forecast to rise 3.0 per cent to $374,200 in 2013 and a further 2.1 per cent to $381,900 in 2014.219

RENTAL MARKETEmployment gains and increased levels of net migration pushed the average apartment vacancy rate in Alberta down to 1.5 per cent in April 2013, from 3.0 per cent the previous year. Vacancy rates declined year-over-year in all of Alberta’s largest urban centres. In April 2013, the apartment vacancy rate in the Calgary CMA declined to 1.2 per cent, from 2.5 per cent in April 2012. Edmonton’s apartment vacancy rate also fell, from 2.7 per cent in April 2012 to 1.2 per cent in 2013.220

0!

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2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013 (f)!2014 (f)!

Uni

ts!

Single-detached! Multi-family!



217 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook, Prairie Region Highlights, Second Quarter 2013.218 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Now Prairie Region, Second Quarter 2013.219 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook, Prairie Region Highlights, Second Quarter 2013.220 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, Alberta Highlights, Spring 2013.

Among the province’s five largest Census Agglomerations (CAs), the most dramatic drop in vacancies was recorded in Wood Buffalo, which declined to 2.8 per cent in April 2013 from 10.8 per cent the previous year. Rental demand in Wood Buffalo was supported by the growing investment in oil sands projects, which drew workers to the region. The lowest vacancy rate in April 2013 was in Grande Prairie at 0.9 per cent, down from 1.1 per cent in April 2012.

Private Apartment Vacancy Rates in Alberta and Alberta’s Largest Urban Centres


The average rent for an apartment in Alberta increased to $1,015 per month in April 2013, from $961 the previous year. The average rent for an apartment in Calgary rose to $1,078 per month, from $1,004 the previous year, while the average rent in Edmonton increased to $974 per month, from $937 in April 2012.

Among Alberta’s five largest CAs, Wood Buffalo had the highest rent for an apartment in April 2013 at $2,093 per month, followed by Grande Prairie ($980), Red Deer ($840), Lethbridge ($816) and Medicine Hat ($677).

RETAIL SALESRetail sales in Alberta reached $17.76 billion in the first quarter of 2013, up 1.8 per cent from the previous quarter and up 5.8 per cent year-over-year.221 In May 2013, retail sales in the province hit $6.13 billion, a new record high for any single month of sales, up 1.6 per cent from the previous month and up 7.9 per cent year-over-year.

3.0!2.5! 2.7!

1.1!

7.1! 7.0!

2.2!

10.8!

1.5! 1.2! 1.2! 0.9!

6.9!

4.4!

1.6!

2.8!

0.0!

2.0!

4.0!

6.0!

8.0!

10.0!

12.0!

Alberta!

Calgary

CMA!

Edmon

ton CMA!

Grande

Prairie

CA!

Lethb

ridge

CA!

Medicin

e Hat

CA!

Red Dee

r CA!

Wood B

uffalo

CA!

Vaca

ncy

Rat

e (%

)!

Apr-12! Apr-13!



221 Statistics Canada CANSIM table 080-0020.

“Alberta’s total retail sales are also being lifted by strong population growth. With an annual increase of 3.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year—much of that through international and interprovincial migration—Alberta’s growing population is a major factor in lifting retail sales to record highs.”222

May’s year-over-year increase was led by higher spending at automobile dealers, which increased 16 per cent and food and beverage stores which increased 5.7 per cent. Alberta posted the highest year-over-year and year-to-date increase in retail sales among the provinces in May 2013.223

Retail sales in Alberta are forecast to increase 7.1 per cent in 2013 to $72.97 billion, from 68.14 billion in 2012. Retail sales are then projected to rise an additional 5.0 per cent in 2014 to $76.59 billion.224

“As labour markets continue to tighten, wage pressures will mount. The average weekly wage in the province will increase by 4.8 per cent in 2013 and by another 2.9 per cent in 2014, by which time the average resident in Alberta will be making 25 per cent more than the Canadian average! The strong wage growth will drive compensation of employees up by an average of 6.5 per cent over the next two years as a result, benefiting retailers in the province who can expect their sales to increase by an average of 6 per cent over the next two years.”225

Alberta Retail Sales ($billions), seasonally adjusted

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table No: 080-0020

5.0 !

5.1 !

5.2 !

5.3 !

5.4 !

5.5 !

5.6 !

5.7 !

5.8 !

5.9 !

6.0 !

6.1 !

6.2 !

Jan-1

1!

Feb-11!

Mar-11!

Apr-11!

May-11!

Jun-1

1!

Jul-1

1!

Aug-11!

Sep-11!

Oct-11!

Nov-11!

Dec-11!

Jan-1

2!

Feb-12!

Mar-12!

Apr-12!

May-12!

Jun-1

2!

Jul-1

2!

Aug-12!

Sep-12!

Oct-12!

Nov-12!

Dec-12!

Jan-1

3!

Feb-13!

Mar-13!

Apr-13!

May-13!

$ bi

llion

s!



222 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Shopping hits new record, July 23, 2013.223 Alberta Treasury Board and Enterprise, Weekly Economic Review, July 26, 2013.224 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook: Alberta, Economic Forecast, Spring 2013, p.69.225 Ibid, p.67.

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGSThe average weekly earnings of Alberta payroll employees rose by $38 (+3.6 per cent) year-over-year in the first quarter of 2013 to $1,100. On average, Albertans earned $192 more per week in Q1 2013 than the national average of $907. Every province registered annual gains in average weekly earnings in the first quarter of 2013, with Saskatchewan (+4.0 per cent), Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador (+3.6 per cent) posting the highest growth rates.226

In the first quarter of 2013, workers in the mining and oil and gas industry were the highest paid in Alberta, with average weekly earnings of $2,039, up 1.3 per cent from the first quarter of 2012. Employees in the management of companies and enterprises industry were the next highest paid, with average weekly earning up 13.5 per cent year-over-year to $1,855 in the first quarter of 2013. Employees in the administrative and support services, health care and social assistance, other services, retail trade, arts entertainment and recreation and accommodation and food services sectors earned less than $1,000 per week on average in the first quarter of 2013, with earnings in the accommodation and food services industry averaging just $410 per week.

Average Weekly Earnings of Alberta Payroll Employees by Industry Q1 2012 and Q1 2013, Not Seasonally Adjusted (including overtime)

Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 281-0043

$907 ! $946 !

$754 ! $786 ! $803 ! $822 ! $920 !

$829 ! $947 !

$1,100 !

$874 !

$- !

$200 !

$400 !

$600 !

$800 !

$1,000 !

$1,200 !

Canad

a! NL! PE! NS! NB! QC! ON! MB! SK! AB! BC!

Average Weekly Earnings of Payroll Employees, Q1 2012 and 2013 Canada and Provinces, not seasonally adjusted!

Q1 2012! Q1 2013!

Industry Q1 2012

Forestry, logging and support 1,219$ Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 2,013$ Utilities 1,774$ Construction 1,386$ Manufacturing 1,162$ Wholesale trade 1,265$ Retail trade 558$ Transportation and warehousing 1,129$ Information and cultural industries 1,158$ Finance and insurance 1,180$ Real estate and rental and leasing 1,046$ Professional, scientific and technical services 1,408$ Management of companies and enterprises 1,634$ Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 900$ Educational services 988$ Health care and social assistance 881$ Arts, entertainment and recreation 536$ Accommodation and food services 420$ Other services (except public administration) 819$ Public administration 1,180$

Q1 2013 % chg

1,302$ 6.9%2,039$ 1.3%1,714$ -3.4%1,446$ 4.3%1,178$ 1.3%1,260$ -0.4%

569$ 2.0%1,203$ 6.5%1,231$ 6.2%1,200$ 1.7%1,078$ 3.0%1,485$ 5.5%1,855$ 13.5%

937$ 4.2%1,027$ 3.9%

913$ 3.6%590$ 9.9%410$ -2.5%886$ 8.2%

1,252$ 6.1%



226 Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 281-0043.

BANKRUPTCIESPersonal bankruptcies in Alberta totaled 1,287 in the first quarter of 2013, up 2.5 per cent from the previous quarter but down 21 per cent year-over-year. In April 2013, 464 Albertans filed for personal bankruptcy, down 11 per cent year-over-year.

“The number of consumers and businesses declaring bankruptcy is on a downward trend, a sign of Alberta’s strong economy. Business bankruptcies in Alberta decreased on a year-over-year basis for the ninth consecutive month in April, falling by 25.0% to 15. Consumers are also seeing bankruptcies move lower, with bankruptcies falling year-over-year for the 30th consecutive month in April (-11.3%).”227

Among the economic regions in Alberta, consumer bankruptcies declined 45 per cent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2013 in the Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake economic region, 40 per cent in Camrose-Drumheller, 35 per cent in Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River, 27 per cent in Calgary, 14 per cent in Edmonton and 12 per cent in Red Deer. On an annual basis, the Lethbridge-Medicine Hat economic region experienced a 6.7 per cent increase in personal bankruptcies in the first quarter of 2013, while personal bankruptcies in the Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House economic region rose 4.7 per cent.228

Thirty-six businesses closed their doors in Alberta in the first quarter of 2013, down 27 per cent from the previous quarter and down 44 per cent year-over-year. Seventeen Calgary businesses and five Edmonton businesses filed for bankruptcy in the first quarter of 2013.

Personal and Business Bankruptcies in Alberta

Source: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada

- !

20 !

40 !

60 !

80 !

100 !

120 !

140 !

- !

500 !

1,000 !

1,500 !

2,000 !

2,500 !

3,000 !

Q1 200

8!

Q2 200

8!

Q3 200

8!

Q4 200

8!

Q1 200

9!

Q2 200

9!

Q3 200

9!

Q4 200

9!

Q1 201

0!

Q2 201

0!

Q3 201

0!

Q4 201

0!

Q1 201

1!

Q2 201

1!

Q3 201

1!

Q4 201

1!

Q1 201

2!

Q2 201

2!

Q3 201

2!

Q4 201

2!

Q1 201

3!

Bus

ines

s B

ankr

uptc

ies!

Pers

onal

Ban

krup

tcie

s!

Personal! Business!



227 Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Weekly Economic Review, June 28, 2013.228 Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada, Insolvency Statistics in Canada -First Quarter 2013.

In March 2013, Alberta had the third lowest personal bankruptcies on a per capita basis at 11 per 100,000, after Saskatchewan (8.3 people per 100,000) and Manitoba (8.4 people per 100,000). In Atlantic Canada, rates were in excess of 25 bankruptcies per 100,000 in March 2013.

“Since borrowing costs are essentially the same across the country, the difference between the high rates in eastern Canada and the low rates in the Prairies comes down to the labour market. Higher wages and plentiful job opportunities obviously create more favourable conditions for managing personal debt.”229

EMPLOYMENT INSURANCEThe average number of Albertans receiving regular Employment Insurance (EI) benefits declined 3.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, compared to the previous quarter, continuing the downward trend started in the fourth quarter of 2009. Year-over-year, regular EI beneficiaries were down 8.0 per cent in Alberta in the first quarter of 2013.

Regular Employment Insurance Beneficiaries, AlbertaQuarterly Averages, seasonally adjusted

Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM table 276-0001

- !

10,000 !

20,000 !

30,000 !

40,000 !

50,000 !

60,000 !

70,000 !

80,000 !

Q1 200

8!

Q2 200

8!

Q3 200

8!

Q4 200

8!

Q1 200

9!

Q2 200

9!

Q3 200

9!

Q4 200

9!

Q1 201

0!

Q2 201

0!

Q3 201

0!

Q4 201

0!

Q1 201

1!

Q2 201

1!

Q3 201

1!

Q4 201

1!

Q1 201

2!

Q2 201

2!

Q3 201

2!

Q4 201

2!

Q1 201

3!

Num

ber o

f Reg

ular

EI B

enefi

ciar

ies!



229 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Prairies lowest in personal bankruptcy, June 3, 2013.

In May of 2013, there were 28,260 Albertans receiving regular EI benefits, a decline of 2.2 per cent year-over-year. Approximately 70 per cent of the recipients were aged 25 - 54, 17 per cent were aged 55+ and about 13 per cent were aged 15 - 24.

“The tally of beneficiaries can fall in a province for a few different reasons. If job seekers run out of weeks of eligibility, they stop receiving cheques and the number of beneficiaries fall. Or, if job seekers become discouraged they could either stop looking for work or move to another province. However, the primary reason Alberta has seen fewer E.I. beneficiaries is the strong labour market. With more than 40,000 jobs created over the last twelve months, workers are having a somewhat easier time of finding work and transitioning off the E.I. program.”230

POPULATIONAlberta’s population grew by 0.86 per cent or 34,000 in the first quarter of 2013, to an estimated 3,965,340. This level of first-quarter population increase was the largest for the province since 1972.231 Alberta gained 13,440 net interprovincial migrants during the quarter, the largest first quarter net inflow of interprovincial migrants ever recorded. Approximately 45 per cent or 6,030 net interprovincial migrants to Alberta came from Ontario, 18 per cent or 2,480 came from British Columbia and 8.3 per cent or 1,115 came from Nova Scotia.

In addition, approximately 13,675 net international migrants moved to Alberta over the first three months of 2013, representing 14 per cent of all immigrants to Canada during the quarter. Together, migration from both sources accounted for 80 per cent of the population growth in the first quarter of 2013, representing the highest first quarter increase on record. Natural increase accounted for the remaining 20 per cent of the provinces quarterly population growth, totaling 6,890.

For the sixth consecutive quarter, Alberta recorded the highest quarterly population growth rate in Canada in the first quarter of 2013, more than three times the national growth rate of 0.24 per cent. With a quarterly population growth rate of 0.37 per cent, Saskatchewan was the only other province in Canada above the national average. All four Atlantic provinces recorded population declines in the first quarter of 2013, with Nova Scotia posting the most significant loss.

“Nova Scotia’s population declined by 1,700 (-0.2%) in the first quarter of 2013, to a total of 945,000 as of April 1. This was the largest population decrease for all quarters in Nova Scotia since 1971. The population decline was mainly the result of the second largest loss in interprovincial migration (-1,800). Preliminary estimates indicate that Nova Scotia lost more than 1,100 people in interprovincial migration exchanges with Alberta.”232

-5,000!

0!

5,000!

10,000!

15,000!

20,000!

25,000!

30,000!

35,000!

40,000!

Q1 200

7!

Q3 200

7!

Q1 200

8!

Q3 200

8!

Q1 200

9!

Q3 200

9!

Q1 201

0!

Q3 201

0!

Q1 201

1!

Q3 201

1!

Q1 201

2!

Q3 201

2!

Q1 201

3!

Pers

ons!

Source: Statistics Canada!

Components of Alberta's Population Growth!Natural Increase! Net Interprovincial Migration! Net International Migration!



230 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Fewer collecting EI in March, May 23, 2013.231 Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 91-002-XWE,Quarterly Demographic Estimates, January to March 2013, June 19, 2013.232 Ibid.

Quarterly Population Growth Rates, Canada and ProvincesQ1 2012 and Q1 2013

Source: Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates

0.24%!

-0.01%!

-0.11%!-0.18%!

-0.09%!

0.17%! 0.17%!0.24%!

0.37%!

0.86%!

0.22%!

-0.40%!

-0.20%!

0.00%!

0.20%!

0.40%!

0.60%!

0.80%!

1.00%!

Canada! NL! PE! NS! NB! QC! ON! MB! SK! AB! BC!

% c

hang

e!Q1 2012! Q1 2013!



Calgary Region EconomyCalgary’s economy expanded by an estimated 3.7 per cent in 2012, as a result of strong growth in the goods-producing sector and healthy retail activity. Slower growth of 3.0 per cent is projected for this year, while in 2014, real GDP in the Calgary CMA is forecast to expand by 3.4 per cent.

“Solid manufacturing and primary activity will drive growth in the goods sector yet again in 2013, while services output growth is set to slow down somewhat. As a result, real GDP is forecast to expand at a more moderate pace of 3 per cent this year.”233

Calgary’s good-producing sector is projected to grow by 3.3 per cent in 2013, led by a 4.6 per cent growth in manufacturing output. In addition, primary and utilities output is forecast to increase 3.4 per cent in 2013, due to continued strong demand for the province’s natural resources.

The services-producing sector is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2013, led by a 4.4 per cent growth in retail and wholesale trade output. Growth is expected to be more modest across all other service industries, including the public sector.

“Since another year of lower government spending is anticipated in 2013, the Conference Board expects activity in the public sector (non- commercial services and public administration) to remain weak. Taken together, growth will come in at only 0.8 per cent.”234

Output in the construction sector is forecast to increase by 1.9 per cent in 2013, following weak growth of 0.6 per cent in 2012. Several non-residential projects currently under construction along with some new non-residential projects beginning in 2013 are expected to boost output. These include the International Transborder Concourse at the Calgary International Airport, the Foothills Medical Centre upgrade, the Western Alberta electricity line and the King Edward Hotel redevelopment.235



233 The Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1 Spring 2013, p.5.234 Ibid, p.4.235 Ibid, p.5.

CALGARY ECONOMY AT A GLANCE




Real GDP (% change)

2014(f)

2013 (f) 2012

Real GDP (% change)

3.4 3.0 3.7


Jun 2013

May 2013

Jun 2012CPI Inflation

(% change)2.5 2.5 1.3

Housing Starts (thousands of units)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012

Housing Starts (thousands of units) 2.5 2.8 3.2

Residential Sales (thousands of units)

2014(f)

2013 (f) 2012Residential

Sales (thousands of units) 27.7 27.0 26.6

Building Permits ($ billion)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Building

Permits ($ billion) 1.38 1.12 1.13

Non-residential construction ($ million)

Q2 2013

Q1 2013

Q2 2012

Non-residential construction ($ million) 962 913 927

Office Vacancy Rate (%)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012Office

Vacancy Rate (%) 5.7 4.5 4.9


2014(f)

2013(f) 2012Population


Calgary Economic Region (CER) Forecast

Category 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f

Real GDP (% change) 3.9 5.5 3.7 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8Inflation (% change) 0.8 2.2 1.0 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1Population (% change) 1.8 2.0 3.2 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Total Employment (% change) -0.7 3.0 3.7 1.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.9Unemployment Rate (%) 6.8 5.8 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1Total Housing Starts ('000s) 9.3 9.3 12.8 12.2 11.8 11.9 11.5 11.3Retail Sales (% change) 6.5 6.7 6.0 5.9 4.8 4.2 4.0 3.7

Source: Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook — Spring 2013* Actual data or most recent estimates.

INFLATIONConsumer prices in Alberta rose 2.3 per cent between June 2012 and June 2013, matching May’s year-over-year increase. Inflation in Alberta has been on the rise since the beginning of the year, when the province’s Consumer Price Index dipped into negative territory in January 2013.

“Shoppers in Alberta may have found themselves digging a bit deeper into their pockets in recent months. While it is still low by historic standards, inflation has ticked higher.”236

Much of June’s price growth in Alberta was driven by higher natural gas prices, which increased by 43 per cent year-over-year. Significant price growth was also seen in internet access subscriptions (+11.4 per cent) and gasoline (+9.2 per cent). Household electricity prices declined 2.3 per cent, as did health and personal care items (-0.5 per cent).

In Calgary, consumer prices rose 2.5 per cent year-over-year in June 2013, matching the level of inflation seen the previous month and the largest increase since January 2012. Similar to Alberta as a whole, significant cost increases were recorded in natural gas (+44 per cent) and gasoline (+9.5 per cent). Shelter costs in Calgary also increases by 4.4 per cent in June 2013, along with transportation (+3.3 per cent) and food (+1.6 per cent). The only decline in prices was recorded in the health and personal care category (-0.4 per cent).237

Shelter costs are forecast to increase in the final half of 2013, due to increased demand for accommodations. As Calgarians spend approximately 27 per cent of their income on shelter costs on a monthly basis, overall inflation in the Calgary CMA is also expected to rise.

“Calgary’s residential market strengthened in the month of June as increases were observed in both the number of sales and average sale prices when compared to same time last year. With the increasing demands for both owned and rented accommodations from high net migration levels and families displaced by the recent flooding, this should put upward pressure on accommodation costs over the coming months. We expect the growth of shelter prices and the overall inflation rate in Calgary to be higher in the second half of this year.”238



236 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Prices rise in June, July 19, 2013.237 City of CalgaryJune 2013 Inflation Review, July 19, 2013.238 Ibid.

Consumer Price Index– Calgary, Alberta and Canada(Per cent change, year-over-year)

-1.0%!

-0.5%!

0.0%!

0.5%!

1.0%!

1.5%!

2.0%!

2.5%!

3.0%!

3.5%!

4.0%!

2010

-01 !

2010

-03 !

2010

-05 !

2010

-07 !

2010

-09 !

2010

-11 !

2011

-01 !

2011

-03!

2011

-05!

2011

-07!

2011

-09!

2011

-11!

2012

-01!

2012

-03!

2012

-05!

2012

-07!

2012

-09!

2012

-11!

2013

-01!

2013

-03!

2013

-05!

% C

hang

e!Calgary! Alberta! Canada!

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 326-0020.

GASOLINE PRICESRegular unleaded gasoline in Calgary averaged 119.4 cents/litre in the second quarter of 2013, up from 106.4 cents/litre the previous quarter and 115.7 cents/litre year-over-year. The price for regular gasoline in Calgary was close to 10 cents/litre below the national average of 129.1 cents/litre in the second quarter of 2013.239

“The price you pay for gasoline at your local service station can vary quite a bit from the price in the next city. Price differences between cities and across Canada involve four key factors: taxes, competition and consumer choice, the amount sold, and the type and location of stations.”240

According to Natural Resources Canada, regional differences in provincial and municipal taxes are the most important factor affecting what consumers pay at the pump. While a fixed federal excise tax of 10 cents/litre is constant across the country, fixed gasoline taxes vary considerably by province and municipality. Sales taxes on gasoline also vary by province.



239 Natural Resources Canada, Energy Sector, Energy Sources, Petroleum Products and Crude Oil Prices.240 Natural Resources Canada, Energy Sector, Why Gasoline Prices Vary Across Canada.

Average Retail Prices for Regular Unleaded GasolineCalgary and Canada (cents per litre)

Source: Natural Resources Canada

HOUSING MARKETFor the first three months of 2013, housing starts in the Calgary CMA totaled 2,505 units, down 22 per cent from the 3,200 units started in the first quarter of 2012. Single-family starts in the Calgary CMA rose 14 per cent year-over-year to 1,427 units, while multi-family starts declined 45 per cent to 1,078 units.

“The supply of single-detached listings in the competing resale market has come down from the previous year, resulting in some buyers looking to the new home market to satisfy their housing needs. Income growth and consistent gains in full-time employment have also contributed to higher demand for new homes.”241

Housing Starts - Q1 2012 and Q1 2013

Area Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2013

Alberta 3,113 3,549 3,371 3,440 6,484 6,989 7.8%Calgary CMA 1,256 1,427 1,944 1,078 3,200 2,505 -21.7%

Single Multiple Total % Change 2012-2013

Edmonton CMA 1,083 1,125 1,122 1,724 2,205 2,849 29.2%


75.0!

85.0!

95.0!

105.0!

115.0!

125.0!

135.0!

Q1 200

8!

Q2 200

8!

Q3 200

8!

Q4 200

8!

Q1 200

9!

Q2 200

9!

Q3 200

9!

Q4 200

9!

Q1 201

0!

Q2 201

0!

Q3 201

0!

Q3 201

0!

Q1 201

1!

Q2 201

1!

Q3 201

1!

Q4 201

1!

Q1 201

2!

Q2 201

2!

Q3 201

2!

Q4 201

2!

Q1 201

3!

Q2 201

3!

cent

s pe

r litr

e!Canada! Calgary!



241 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook, Calgary CMA, Spring 2013, p.2.

In comparison, new home construction in the Edmonton CMA totaled 2,849 units in the first quarter of 2013, an increase of 29 per cent from the first three months of 2012. Single-family starts rose 4.0 per cent year-over-year, reaching 1,125 units in the first quarter of 2013, while multi-family starts increased 54 per cent to 1,724 units.242

Housing starts in the Calgary CMA are projected to decline 9.0 per cent in 2013 and increase 3.4 per cent in 2014 after increasing 38 per cent in 2012. Single-detached starts are expected to increase 4.0 per cent in 2013 and 1.6 per cent in 2014. Multi-family starts, however ,are forecast to fall 20 per cent in 2013, before increasing by a modest 5.5 per cent in 2014. The lower starts forecast for 2013 will be a result of increased supply and rising inventories in the multi-family segment, along with a projected moderation in employment growth and net migration.243

Housing Starts Forecast: Calgary CMA


Residential sales in Calgary increased 4.6 per cent on an annual basis to 12,279 sales in the first half of 2013. While sales activity exceeded growth expectations, particularly in June 2013, the devastating flooding that hit Calgary and southern Alberta in late June is expected to impact housing statistics over the second half of the year.

“In the coming months, flood victims, particularly those who were planning on selling their homes, will have some big decisions to make,” said Becky Walters, CREB® President. “Will they take a discounted price? Or will they stay and fully remediate the property? Either way, in the short term, housing supply will likely be relatively tight.”244

13,505 !

11,438 !

6,318 !

9,262 ! 9,292 !

12,841 !

11,700 ! 12,100 !

- !

2,000 !

4,000 !

6,000 !

8,000 !

10,000 !

12,000 !

14,000 !

16,000 !

2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013 (f)! 2014 (f)!

Tota

l Hou

sing

Sta

rts!



242 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook, Prairie Region Highlights, Released Second Quarter 2013, p.4.243 Ibid.244 Calgary Real Estate Board, Calgary Regional Housing Market Statistics, June 2013, p.1.

Single-family home sales in Calgary totaled 8,573 units in the first six months of 2013, a 0.7 per cent increase from the first half 2012. The average price of a single-family home climbed 7.7 per cent to $517,248 in the first half of 2013.

Condo sales (apartments and townhouses) in Calgary increased 15 per cent year-over-year to 3,706 sales in the first two quarters of 2013. The average price of an apartment condo rose to $297,530 and the average price of a townhouse condo rose to $340,460 in the second half of 2013, both up 7.0 per cent compared to the first half of 2012.

Residential sales in the towns surrounding Calgary increased 4.6 per cent year-over-year in the first half of 2013 to 2,260 sales. The average price for a resale home outside the city increased 2.6 per cent to $362,000.

CMHC is forecasting Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales in the Calgary CMA will increase 1.4 per cent in 2013 to a total of 27,000 sales and an additional 2.6 per cent in 2014 to 27,700 sales. The average MLS sales price in the Calgary CMA is projected to increase 4.0 per cent in 2013 to $429,000 and a further 2.3 per cent in 2014 to $439,000.245

RENTAL MARKETCanada’s apartment vacancy rate increased to 2.7 per cent in April 2013, from 2.3 per cent the previous year,246 with weak employment growth among youth being a major contributor to the increase.

“...economic moderation during the second half of 2012 and early 2013 has caused employment growth for those in the 20-24 age range to become more modest. Employment growth in this age range was 0.4 per cent for 2012, compared to 2 per cent for 2011. Lower household formation in this group likely decreased overall rental housing demand, as young adults are predominately renters. These factors have contributed to the upward pressure on Canada’s rental vacancy rate.”247

Calgary and Edmonton’s apartment vacancy rate fell to 1.2 per cent in April 2013, from 2.5 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively the previous year. Calgary and Edmonton had the lowest apartment vacancy rate in Canada in April 2013 while St. John, New Brunswick had the highest rate at 10.4 per cent.

“Despite the modest expansion of the local rental universe [between 2010 and 2012, less than 400 new rental units were started in Saint John], the vacancy rate in Saint John was the highest in the province in April 2013, pointing to weaker demand for rental units. In large part, the rise in the vacancy rate in Saint John can be attributed to relatively limited population growth and favorable market conditions that continue to draw current and potential renters to homeownership.”248



245 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook, Calgary CMA, Spring 2013, p.8.246 Based on Statistics Canada’s 35 major centres in Canada.247 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, Canada Highlights, Spring 2013, p.1.248 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, New Brunswick Highlights, Spring 2013, p.2.

Private Apartment Vacancy Rates in Selected CMAs and Canada (%)April 2012 and 2013


Nationally, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment was $911 per month in April 2013, up from $887 per month in 2012. Among the 15 metropolitan areas in the following chart, the Calgary CMA and Toronto CMA had the second highest average rent for a two-bedroom unit in 2013 at just over $1,200 per month, both up from the previous year. Vancouver continued to post the highest average rent at $1,255 per month, while the lowest average rents for a two-bedroom apartment were seen in St. John ($703) and Montreal ($719).249

Richard Goatcher, economic analyst for the Canadian Home Builders’ Association-Alberta, expects rents to continue to climb in Calgary and across Alberta throughout 2013.

“We look for rental markets to remain tight across Alberta this year and this will force rents upward. Higher rental rates will encourage both newcomers and existing Albertans to consider home ownership. Affordable mortgage rates and a strong economy will also support demand for both new and existing homes across the province.”250

10.4%!

6.3%!

3.7%!

3.4%!

3.3%!

3.0%!

3.0%!

2.9%!

2.7%!

2.2%!

1.9%!

1.9%!

1.6%!

1.5%!

1.2%!

1.2%!

0.0%! 2.0%! 4.0%! 6.0%! 8.0%! 10.0%! 12.0%!

St. John!Windsor!Ottawa!Victoria!

Saskatoon!Halifax!

Montreal!Vancouver!

Canada!Quebec!

Winnipeg!Regina!Toronto!

St. John's!Edmonton!

Calgary !

Vacancy Rate!

2012! 2013!



249 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, Canada Highlights, Spring 2013, p.3-4.250 Calgary Herald, Calgary rental apartment vacancy rate the lowest in Canada, Average monthly rates grow at fastest rate in the country, Mario Toneguzzi, June 20, 2013.

Private Apartment Average Rents (Two-Bedroom) in Selected CMAs and Canada ($)April 2012 and 2013


HOUSING AFFORDABILITYHousing affordability, as measured by the RBC Housing Affordability Measure (HA Measure), shows the proportion of median pre-tax household income required to service the cost of mortgage payments (principle and interest), property taxes and utilities on homes and condos.251 The higher the measure, the more difficult it is to afford a house.

Housing affordability was virtually unchanged in the first quarter of 2013, following two consecutive quarters of improved affordability. Nationally, the RBC HA Measure was unchanged quarter-over-quarter for two-story homes and condos, and rose slightly by 0.3 percentage points for bungalows.

“The start of a new year did little to alter recent trends in housing affordability in Canada: owning a home at market price still took a modestly larger-than-usual share of a typical household’s income, but things have not become any worse since early 2010. In fact, RBC’s housing affordability measures were unchanged at the national level in the first quarter of 2013 from the previous quarter in two of three housing categories that we track. The measures for both standard two-storey homes and condominium apartments stayed at their fourth-quarter 2012 levels of 48.0% and 28.1%, respectively (a decline represents an improvement in affordability). The third category – detached bungalows – saw only a minor deterioration, rising 0.3 percentage points to 42.5%.”252

$1,255 !

$1,202 !

$1,202 !

$1,130 !

$1,077 !

$1,076 !

$1,020 !

$1,001 !

$965 !

$939 !

$911 !

$832 !

$780 !

$763 !

$719 !

$703 !

$- ! $200 ! $400 ! $600 ! $800 ! $1,000 ! $1,200 ! $1,400 !

Vancouver!Toronto!

Calgary !Ottawa!

Edmonton!Victoria!

Saskatoon!Regina!Halifax!

Winnipeg!Canada!

St. John's!Windsor!Quebec!

Montreal!St. John!

Average Rent (2 bedroom)!

2012! 2013!



251 RBC Economics, Housing Trends and Affordability, March 2012, p.7.252 RBC Economics, Housing Trends and Affordability, May 2013, p.1.

With the Bank of Canada expected to leave interest rate at 1.0 per cent throughout 2013 and into 2014, housing affordability levels are not forecast to pose a threat to the Canadian housing market in the near-term.

“[...]when interest rates do rise – and they will eventually – the increase will occur because the Canadian economy is stronger and generating more solid household income gains. This will go some way to offsetting any negative effects on affordability from rising rates.”253

In the first quarter of 2013, the HA Measure in the two-storey home segment rose in all major metropolitan markets shown in the following table on a quarter-over-quarter basis, with the exception of Vancouver, which declined by 0.6 percentage points. Calgary’s HA Measure for two-storey homes increased by 0.4 percentage points to 38.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2013. Edmonton’s two-storey HA Measure was the lowest among major metropolitan areas, rising by only 0.2 percentage points to 34.4 per cent.

In the condo segment, the HA Measure rose 0.8 percentage points in Calgary and 0.1 percentage point in Edmonton on a quarterly basis, bringing Calgary’s measure for condos to 22.9 per cent and Edmonton’s to 18.6 per cent.

“Despite slight erosion in affordability in the first quarter, Alberta’s market continues to be a bright spot in Canada. Resale activity picked up in the first quarter of this year (rising 3.7% from the fourth quarter of 2012), thereby keeping market conditions somewhat tight. Home prices rose modestly across all housing types. Higher prices are not a hindrance to Alberta home- buyers, who enjoy substantial buying power thanks to their higher income. In fact, the Alberta market remains among the most affordable in the country because of high household income in the province.”254

RBC Housing Affordability Measures

RegionCanada

British ColumbiaAlbertaSaskatchewanManitobaOntarioQuebecAtlantic

TorontoMontrealVancouverOttawaCalgaryEdmontonNote: Qualifying Income is the minimum annual income used by lenders to measure the ability

of a borrower to make mortgage payments.

Source: RBC Housing Trends and Affordability, May 2013

Avg. PriceQualifying

IncomeHA

Measure Avg. PriceQualifying

IncomeHA

Measure$410,800 $87,800 48.0% $236,900 $51,300 28.1%

$648,400 $125,100 71.3% $295,500 $58,700 33.4%$381,200 $81,700 34.7% $217,300 $46,700 19.8%$363,200 $79,500 41.2% $238,000 $51,200 26.5%$302,000 $67,700 38.7% $195,800 $42,700 24.4%$447,000 $97,200 49.5% $259,000 $57,300 29.2%$297,500 $66,100 41.3% $195,800 $43,200 27.0%$240,300 $59,500 36.9% $187,000 $43,400 26.9%

$644,700 $132,100 62.7% $336,000 $70,600 33.5%$390,600 $83,100 52.1% $237,100 $50,900 32.0%$829,800 $156,200 87.2% $388,100 $74,500 41.6%$397,400 $92,500 41.0% $273,400 $61,500 27.2%$439,800 $89,700 38.8% $260,800 $53,000 22.9%$370,800 $81,300 34.4% $198,800 $44,000 18.6%

Note: Qualifying Income is the minimum annual income used by lenders to measure the ability

of a borrower to make mortgage payments.

Source: RBC Housing Trends and Affordability, May 2013

Standard Two-Storey (Q1 2013) Standard Condo (Q1 2013)



253 RBC Economics, Housing Trends and Affordability, May 2013, p.2.254 Ibid, p.3.

BUILDING PERMITSAlberta contractors took out $4.23 billion in building permits during the first quarter of 2013, up 8.7 per cent from the previous quarter and up 28 per cent from the first quarter of 2012. Residential permits amounting to $2.24 billion accounted for 53 per cent of the total value of permits issued during the first quarter of 2013, while non-residential permits, totaling $1.99 billion, accounted for the remainder.255

“Building permits are an excellent indicator of future construction activity—both spending and employment— because developers must secure their permits months prior to the beginning of the project. Construction activity has been one of the stronger sectors in Alberta in 2013, and new data released today suggests that it will remain that way in the second half of the year.”256

The estimated value of building permit applications in the Calgary CMA was $1.38 billion in the first quarter of 2013, up 23 per cent from the fourth quarter of 2012 and up 22 per cent year-over-year. The value of non-residential permits increased 59 per cent quarter-over-quarter to $583 million, while the value of residential permits rose 6.0 per cent to $799 million.257

In April 2013, the value of building permits in the Calgary CMA rose 45 per cent from the previous month to $791 million, led by a 178 per cent increase in the value of non-residential permits. Residential permits declined 9.8 per cent over the same period. April’s total was the largest recorded since February 2011, when the value of construction permits totaled $943 million. Year-over-year, non-residential permit values were up 11 per cent in April 2013 and residential permit values were up 21 per cent.

Value of Building Permits - Calgary CMA

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0003.

0 !

100 !

200 !

300 !

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500 !

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800 !

900 !

1,000 !

Jan-1

0!

Mar-10!

May-10!

Jul-1

0!

Sep-10!

Nov-10!

Jan-1

1!

Mar-11!

May-11!

Jul-1

1!

Sep-11!

Nov-11!

Jan-1

2!

Mar-12!

May-12!

Jul-1

2!

Sep-12!

Nov-12!

Jan-1

3!

Mar-13!

May-13!

$ m

illio

ns!

Residential! Non-Residential!



255 Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 026-0006.256 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Permission granted!, July 8, 2013,257 Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 026-0003.

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTIONIn the second quarter of 2013, non-residential investment in Alberta reached $2.45 billion, down 1.0 per cent from the previous quarter but up 0.7 per cent year-over-year. Industrial investment rose 1.2 per cent on a quarterly basis to $377 million in the second quarter. Institutional and governmental investment also increased 1.1 per cent to $339 million. Commercial investment, on the other hand, declined 1.9 per cent to $1.73 billion in the second quarter of 2013. Commercial investment in Alberta has been hovering between $1.7 billion and $1.8 billion since the first quarter of 2012.258

Investment in non-residential building construction in the Calgary CMA totaled $962 million in the second quarter of 2013, up 2.8 per cent from $936 million the previous quarter. On an annual basis, investment in non-residential construction in the Calgary CMA rose 3.7 per cent. in the second quarter of 2013. The industrial sector posted a year-over-year increase of 55 per cent to $63.5 million in the second quarter, while the commercial sector saw investment rise 2.2 per cent to $782.7 million. Investment in the institutional sector declined 4.2 per cent year-over-year to $115.8 million.259

Looking at Canada’s largest metropolitan areas, investment in non-residential construction also increased in Montreal (+3.7 per cent), Vancouver (+17 per cent) and Ottawa (+25 per cent) year-over-year in the second quarter of 2013. Investment declined by 1.8 per cent in Toronto and by 8.7 per cent in Edmonton.260

Investment in Non-Residential Building Construction (Q2 2012 and Q2 2013)Select Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs)

CMA Q2 2012 Q2 2013 % ChangeToronto $2,544 $2,497 -1.8%Montreal $1,186 $1,230 3.7%Calgary $927 $962 3.7%Vancouver $758 $890 17.4%Edmonton $677 $618 -8.7%Ottawa $386 $482 24.9%

($millions)

Source: Statistics Canada, Investment in Non-Residential Building Construction - Second Quarter 2013.

OFFICE MARKETOverall, Calgary’s office vacancy rate increased to 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, from 4.5 per cent the previous quarter - the second time in nine quarters the overall office vacancy rate has increased.261 Head lease vacancy remained relatively stable at 3.9 per cent, while sublease vacancy rose to 1.8 per cent, more than double the rate of 0.8 per cent observed in the previous quarter. According to CBRE Limited, “sublet space, which businesses have decided to return to the market prior to the end of the agreed upon lease term, is indicative of a need to change course or seek new space for a variety of reasons.”262



258 Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 026-0016.259 Statistics Canada, The Daily, Investment in non-residential building construction Second Quarter 2013, July 17, 2013.260 Ibid.261 Avison Young, Calgary Market Overview, The Office Report, Q1 2013, p.1.262 Calgary Herald, Sublet vacant space soars in downtown Calgary, Companies putting space back on the market, Mario Toneguzzi, March 20, 2013.

“A variety of energy and engineering firms are responsible for increasing the amount of sublet space, likely due to lack of growth and caution within the energy sector. Most notably, WorleyParsons, who occupy approximately 700,000 sq. ft. across the city, have put most of their space on the sublet market with the goal of subleasing approximately 200,000 sq. ft. This strategy will give them flexibility in offloading whichever space is most in demand. As expected with completions and budget reductions for pipeline and oil sands projects, scaling back is a normal course of action as seen in previous cycles. It is certainly a possibility, however, many of the companies currently marketing sublease space may reclaim their sublets in the future. This event was witnessed during the financial crisis of 2008, when sublease space rose to the point where it outweighed head lease available space. This effect normalized within two years as Calgary recovered much quicker than anticipated, prompting companies to reclaim their sublet spaces being offered to the market.”263

Calgary’s downtown office vacancy rate remained unchanged year-over-year at 3.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2013. Continued high demand for quality Class AA space kept the vacancy rate in this segment at a low 0.3 per cent in the quarter. Consequently, average net asking rates in the downtown have increased in all class segments year-over-year, with Class A, AA and new construction all averaging in the $40 - $50/sq.ft. range.264

To meet demand, developers in Calgary have four new Class AA office buildings in various stages of construction in the downtown: City Centre, 3 Eau Claire, Eau Claire Tower, and 225 Sixth.

Cadillac Fairview’s City Centre, located at 2nd Street and 3rd Avenue SW, is an 820,000 sq. ft. high-rise under construction and is almost 20 per cent pre-leased.265

Construction on 3 Eau Claire is expected to begin in the summer of 2013 and be completed by 2016. 3 Eau Claire is a twin-tower multi-use development (48 storeys and 42 storeys) located across the street from the existing Shaw Court. Shaw Communications has leased all of the available office space. With condos to be constructed above the office space, the twin-tower building is expected to be the tallest residential building in Calgary.266

Oxford Properties Group also announced the construction of Eau Claire Tower, a 25-storey office tower along 4th Street, between 2nd and 3rd Avenue SW. The Tower is expected to be built over the next three years, with MEG Energy Corp. leasing 11 of the 25 floors. MEG Energy, one of Calgary’s fastest growing thermal oilsands producers, added 200 employees or full-time contractors in 2012, growing to 700 staff located in Fort McMurray and Calgary.267

Finally, Brookfield Properties is in preliminary discussions to secure lead tenants before beginning construction on their development at 225 Sixth - a development that is expected to surpass The Bow as Western Canada’s tallest tower.

“The proposed development, consisting of 2.8 million square feet, includes the tallest structure in downtown Calgary at 56 storeys and 247 meters tall to be located at the northeast corner of the block. A second tower of 42 storeys will be located on the northwest corner. Situated between the towers is a spectacular three-storey, 50,000-square-foot transparent glass pavilion, connecting the grade-level open space to the



263 Avison Young, Calgary Market Overview, The Office Report, Q1 2013, p.1.264 Ibid, p.2.265 Avison Young, Calgary Market Overview, The Office Report, Q1 2013, p.2.266 Calgary Herald, Shaw to renovate water-damaged headquarters and expand into 3 Eau Claire, Amanda Stephenson, February 27, 2013.267 Calgary Herald, New office tower to rise over Eau Claire district, Thermal oilsands producer MEG Energy books 11 of 25 floors, Dan Healing, April 4, 2013.

+15 pedestrian skywalk system. The pavilion touches the site lightly and sets itself away from the towers, while enclosing an internal civic square, which will be programmed year round.”268

Calgary Office Market Vacancy Rates (Q1 2012 and Q1 2013)

Q1 2012 Q1 20134.9% 5.7%

Sublease 0.8% 1.8%Headlease 4.1% 3.9%

3.3% 3.3%AA Class 0.2% 0.3%A Class 2.3% 1.9%B Class 5.6% 6.3%C Class 14.4% 15.2%

6.8% 11.0%6.1% 8.4%9.6% 9.9%

Suburban SouthSuburban North

Source: Avison Young, Calgary Office Market Summary Report First Quarter 2012 and 2013.

Category Vacancy Rate

Overall Office Market

Downtown

Beltline

POPULATIONThe city of Calgary’s population reached 1.120 million in 2012, a 2.7 per cent increase from 2011. Calgary’s population is forecast to increase 2.1 per cent to 1.144 million in 2013 and 2.2 per cent to 1.169 million in 2014. By 2018, Calgary is projected to have a population of 1.259 million.269

Approximately 19,660 people migrated to Calgary in 2012, more than double the previous year. Net migration is forecast to remain strong from 2013 to 2018, averaging approximately 13,700 per year.270

“However the recent flood caused a short-term disruption in the CER labour market as the flooding resulted in structural damage to businesses, loss of inventory, general loss of business due to lack of infrastructure, and in some instances costs related to temporary relocation. More negative effects could also come from housing shortages, where flood damaged homes and hotels forced people to find other accommodations. This could constrain the city’s ability to accommodate more new comers in the short-term.”271



268www.brookfieldofficeproperties.com269 City of Calgary, Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2013 - 2018, Spring 2013, p.31.270 Ibid.271 City of Calgary, Corporate Economics, June 2013 Calgary Economic Region Labour Market Review, July 5, 2013.

Annual Net Migration for CalgaryActual and Forecast 1992 - 2018

Source: City of Calgary

14,

300 !

15,

000 !

14,

800 !

13,

700 !

12,

300 !

12,

300 !

-5,000!

0!

5,000!

10,000!

15,000!

20,000!

25,000!

30,000!

1992!19

93!19

94!19

95!19

96!19

97!19

98!19

99!20

00!20

01!20

02!20

03!20

04!20

05!20

06!20

07!20

08!20

09!20

10!20

11!20

12!

2013

f!20

14f!20

15f!20

16f!20

17f!20

18f!

Net

Mig

ratio

n!

Forecast!



Trends in the Labour MarketThis section examines labour market information for Canada, Alberta, and the Calgary Region.

CanadaEmployment in Canada was virtually unchanged in June 2013, following an impressive gain of 95,000 jobs in May 2013 - the largest monthly increase in ten years. In April 2013, employment in Canada increased by only 12,500. Overall, the Canadian economy added an average of 56,300 jobs in the second quarter of 2013, compared to the previous quarter.

“The Canada Day fireworks are behind us, and so too are the fireworks in Canadian employment data, at least for now. May’s stunning surprise was followed up by an essentially flat reading for employment in June. That continued a see-saw pattern that now shows job losses or tame readings for January, March, April and June interspersed between huge gains for February and May. Anyone want to make a bet on being able to sensibly forecast July?”272

Year-over-year, employment in Canada rose by 215,300 or 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2013.

Labour Force Survey Statistics - Canada

Canada Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Q2 2013Population 28,588,700 28,619,600 28,656,600 28,621,633Labour Force 19,016,100 19,097,000 19,104,100 19,072,400

Employed 17,654,400 17,749,400 17,749,000 17,717,600Unemployed 1,361,700 1,347,600 1,355,100 1,354,800

Participation Rate 66.5% 66.7% 66.7% 66.6%Employment Rate 61.8% 62.0% 61.9% 61.9%Unemployment Rate 7.2% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1%

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820087, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted

Q1 2013Quarterly Change Q2 2012

Annual Change

28,526,200 95,400 28,271,600 350,00019,004,700 67,700 18,870,200 202,20017,661,300 56,300 17,502,300 215,3001,343,400 11,400 1,367,900 -13,100

66.6% 0.0% 66.7% -0.1%61.9% 0.0% 61.9% 0.0%7.1% 0.0% 7.2% -0.1%


Net job creation averaged 14,000 per month in the first half of 2013. According to TD Economics, this was a more modest pace compared to the final six months of 2012, but consistent with Canada’s current modest economic growth.

“For the second half of the year, we expect the economy to continue to add jobs at a pace of 10,000 and 15,000 per month, holding the unemployment rate roughly constant around its current levels. There is little in today’s report [Statistics Canada’s June 2013 Labour Force Survey] to alter the Bank of Canada’s current wait-and-see stance.”273

16,600,000 !

16,800,000 !

17,000,000 !

17,200,000 !

17,400,000 !

17,600,000 !

17,800,000 !

Jun-0

8!

Sep-08!

Dec-08!

Mar-09!

Jun-0

9!

Sep-09!

Dec-09!

Mar-10!

Jun-1

0!

Sep-10!

Dec-10!

Mar-11!

Jun-1

1!

Sep-11!

Dec-11!

Mar-12!

Jun-1

2!

Sep-12!

Dec-12!

Mar-13!

Jun-1

3!Em

ploy

men

t!

Employment in Canada!



272 CIBC Economics, Economic Flash!, Canadian Jobs: Back to Reality, July 5, 2013.273 TD Economics, Canada’s job market holds on to May’s gains in June, July 5, 2013.

UNEMPLOYMENTCanada’s unemployment rate averaged 7.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2013, unchanged from the previous quarter but down from 7.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting Canada’s unemployment rate will decline from 7.1 per cent in 2013 to 6.3 per cent in 2015.

“Steady employment gains and slowing labour force growth are expected to lead to a decline in the unemployment rate from an average of 7.3 per cent in 2012 to 7.1 per cent this year. The rate is forecast to continue its steady decline over the medium term, easing to 6.9 per cent in 2014 and 6.3 per cent in 2015, as it gradually approaches its natural rate.”274

Unemployment rates declined in half of the provinces in June 2013. With an employment increase of 4,300 in June 2013, Saskatchewan’s unemployment rate dropped almost a full percentage point to 3.7 per cent - the lowest among all provinces. With a loss of 5,200 jobs in June 2013, New Brunswick’s unemployment rate rose to 11.2 per cent, the highest among provinces.275

TD Economics is projecting Saskatchewan and Alberta to have the lowest unemployment rate in Canada in 2013 and 2014. Saskatchewan’s unemployment rate is forecast to average 4.3 per cent in 2013 and decline to 4.2 per cent in 2014, while Alberta’s unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2013 and decline to 4.4 per cent in 2014.276

Unemployment Rates Q2 2013 (Canada and Provinces)

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted

5.0%!

5.5%!

6.0%!

6.5%!

7.0%!

7.5%!

8.0%!

8.5%!

9.0%!

Jun-0

8!

Sep-08!

Dec-08!

Mar-09!

Jun-0

9!

Sep-09!

Dec-09!

Mar-10!

Jun-1

0!

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1!

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Jun-1

2!

Sep-12!

Dec-12!

Mar-13!

Jun-1

3!

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(%)!

Unemployment Rate in Canada!

0.0%!

2.0%!

4.0%!

6.0%!

8.0%!

10.0%!

12.0%!

14.0%!

Canada! NL! PEI! NS! NB! QC! ON! MN! SK! AB! BC!

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(%)!

Apr-13! May-13! Jun-13!



274The Conference Board of Canada, Canadian Outlook, Economic Forecast, Spring 2013, p.36.275 Statistics Canada, The Daily, Labour Force Survey June 2013, July 5, 2013.276 TD Economics, Provincial Economic Forecast, July 10, 2013, p.15.

JOB VACANCIESCanadian employers had an estimated 221,000 job vacancies in March 2013. With approximately 1.41 million unemployed in the same month, Canada had 6.4 unemployed people for every job vacancy, up from 5.9 in March 2012.277

The lowest ratios of unemployed people to job vacancies in March 2013 were recorded in Saskatchewan and Alberta. A low ratio means there is low unemployment and/or many job openings.

With 11,700 job vacancies and 22,500 unemployed in March 2013, Saskatchewan’s ratio was 1.9 unemployed for every job vacancy, down from a ratio of 2.8 the previous year. With 46,300 vacancies and 105,700 unemployed, Alberta’s ratio was 2.3 unemployed for every job vacancy, up from a ratio of 1.8 the previous year. In March 2013, Alberta accounted for only 7.5 per cent of all unemployed people in Canada but 21 per cent of all job vacancies.

Newfoundland and Labrador recorded the highest ratio in March 2013 at 21.8 unemployed people for every job vacancy, an increase from a ratio of 16.6 a year earlier.

“Provincially, Newfoundland and Labrador had the most notable increase in the unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio, going from 16.6 unemployed people for every job vacancy in March 2012 to 21.8 in March 2013. The rise in the ratio was because the number of job vacancies in the province declined while the number of unemployed people was little changed.”278

EMPLOYMENT BY TYPE OF WORK, GENDER AND AGEOn a quarterly basis, full-time employment accounted for 92 per cent of the employment increase in Canada during the second quarter of 2013. Full-time employment increased by 51,500 (+0.4 per cent) quarter-over-quarter, while part-time employment increased by 4,800 (+0.1 per cent). Year-over-year, full-time employment was up 1.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2013, significantly higher than the growth rate of 0.1 per cent for part-time employment.

Employment rose by 37,300 or 0.4 per cent on a quarterly basis for men in the second quarter of 2013, a faster pace than for women (+18,900 or 0.2 per cent). Year-over-year, however, employment growth for women (1.5 per cent) outpaced employment growth for men (1.0 per cent) in the second quarter of 2013.

Employment rose in all three major age categories on both a quarterly and annual basis in the second quarter of 2013. Year-over-year, employment among seniors increased by 130,500 or 4.1 per cent, employment among core aged adults increased by 59,600 or 0.5 per cent, and employment among youth increased by 25,200 or 1.0 per cent.

From May to August each year, Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey also collects additional information on employment conditions for youth aged 15 - 24 with intentions of returning to school in the Fall. Year-over-year comparisons can only be made since the data is not seasonally adjusted. The employment rate for students aged 17 to 19 was 51.9 per cent in June 2013, similar to the

5.9$

16.6$

8.5$10.4$

13.9$

7.2$ 7.9$

4.1$2.8$

1.8$

6.7$6.4$

21.8$

10.4$12.5$ 12.6$

7.5$ 8.8$

3.8$1.9$

2.3$

5.8$

0.0$

3.0$

6.0$

9.0$

12.0$

15.0$

18.0$

21.0$

24.0$

Canada$

NL$

PE$

NS$

NB$

QC$

ON$

MB$

SK$

AB$

BC$

Ra#o

%

Unemployment.to.Job%Vacancies%Ra#o,%Canada%and%Provinces,%three%month%average,%March%2012%and%2013%

Mar=12$ Mar=13$



277 Statistics Canada, The Daily, Job vacancies, three-month period ending in March 2013, June 18, 2013.278 Ibid.

previous year. The unemployment rate for these students declined to 15.7 per cent, from 17.3 per cent in June 2012. For students aged 20 to 24, the employment rate rose to 68.0 per cent in June 2013 from 63.2 per cent the previous year and their unemployment rate was 11.4 per cent, down from 13.0 per cent in June 2012.279

In a report recently released by CIBC World Markets titled, Dimensions of Youth Employment in Canada, economist Benjamin Tal explains that the youth unemployment situation in Canada has different dimensions, and is “characterized by both some troubling and encouraging trends.”280

Close to 400,000 (or 8.9 per cent) of the 4.5 million Canadians aged 15-24 are unemployed.

The ratio between youth unemployment (those aged 15 - 24) and the unemployment rate for Canadians aged 25 and older is at a record high. Currently, youth unemployment is approximately 2.4 times that of Canadians aged 25 and older, up from a ratio of 1.7 in 1989.

Approximately 225,000 youth aged 15-24 are neither enrolled in school nor participating in the labour market. This segment represents 5 per cent of all youth and is not part of the official unemployment figure. Over two-thirds of these youth are aged 20 - 24. “When you add this group to those who are not enrolled in school but registered as unemployed, you get a clearer picture of youth unemployment. From a policy perspective, this is the pressing problem as this combined group consists of 420,000 economically at risk youth, or nearly one in ten of young Canadians.”281

The school enrolment rate for those aged 20 - 24 has jumped to 44 per cent, from approximately 16 per cent in the early 80s. At the same time, the labour market participation rate for this age group has fallen to a near record low of 76 per cent, from over 80 per cent in the early 80s. “This trend reflects the fact that today’s labour market is harder to enter and that a higher education and skill set is recognized as essential for a more rewarding future.”282

Increasingly, students are completing their education without any work experience. Approximately 37 per cent of youth aged 15 - 19 and 7 per cent of youth aged 20 - 24 not working currently (they are either unemployed or do not participate in the labour market) have never held a job, up from about 28 per cent and 1 per cent respectively in the early 80s. “Summer jobs—an excellent way to gain work experience—are not as obtainable as in the past [...] The inability to find part-time or summer employment also can have a significant impact on the ability of lower income students to continue to fund their education.”283

It can be argued that youth aged 15 - 18 in high school and also looking for part-time work should not be classified as “unemployed” as their main activity is learning. In this case, the unemployment rate for this age group would be only 5.4 per cent, instead of close to 20 per cent. “This factor also works to reduce the national unemployment rate from the headline 7% to 6.4%. However, to the extent that this phenomenon represents the growing proportion of high school students that need to participate in the labour market in order to financially support their families, this should be seen as a worrying trend.”284



279 Statistics Canada, The Daily, Labour Force Survey, June 2013, July 5, 2013.280 CIBC World Markets, In Focus, Dimensions of Youth Employment in Canada, Benjamin Tal, June 20, 2013, p.1.281 Ibid, p.2.282 Ibid, p.3.283 Ibid, p.3.284 Ibid, p.4.

There is a trend toward rising underemployment among non-student youth. On the upside, while the unemployment rate among non-student youth aged 20 - 24 has been trending downward, non-student youth are experiencing an increase in underemployment. Approximately 22 per cent of youth aged 15 - 19 and 14 per cent of youth aged 20 - 24 who are non-students in the labour force are only working part-time, a record high. In addition, about 70 per cent of youth working part-time want to work-full time.

The report concludes that Canada’s youth unemployment situation is multi-dimensional, with the overall national unemployment figures masking some of the problems in some cases. One of the biggest priorities of Canadian educational institutions, the report suggests, should be more innovation and flexibility in combining education and work-related training, as research shows that youth who receive on the job training or gain work experience while studying are much more likely to find suitable and sustainable employment. At the same time, several underlying trends in youth labour market conditions are more positive than suggested by the official Statistics Canada figures.

“This is not to say that the government, educational authorities and business should not worry. On the contrary, the improved understanding of the dynamics of the youth unemployment problem suggests that initiatives taken by the government and corporate Canada can be more focused and effective in preventing further worsening. Policy makers should take advantage of the current improvement in labour market conditions to not only ease the current youth unemployment problem but also to establish a framework that will reduce the vulnerability of young Canadians to the economic cycles as well as limit hardship in the next economic slowdown.”285

Employment in Canada by Type of Work, Gender and Age

CanadaEmploymentFull-timePart-timeMenWomen15 - 24 years25 - 54 years55 years +Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820087, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted

Q2 2013 Q1 2013Quarterly Change Q2 2012

Annual Change

17,717,600 17,661,300 56,300 17,502,300 215,30014,395,300 14,343,800 51,500 14,182,600 212,7003,322,300 3,317,500 4,800 3,319,700 2,6009,286,100 9,248,800 37,300 9,193,900 92,2008,431,500 8,412,600 18,900 8,308,400 123,1002,465,500 2,451,000 14,500 2,440,300 25,200

11,896,300 11,887,800 8,500 11,836,700 59,6003,355,700 3,322,500 33,200 3,225,200 130,500


EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRYOn a quarterly basis, both the services and goods-producing sectors contributed to Canada’s second quarter 2013 employment gain. Canada’s services-producing sector added 31,300 jobs quarter-over-quarter, led by professional, scientific and technical services (+23,900), educational services (+14,700) and health care and social assistance (+13,900). Employment in the goods-producing sector rose by 25,000 on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2013, led by a 28,500 gain in construction



285 Ibid, p.4.

employment. Employment in the construction industry has been on an upward trend since Fall 2012.286

“[In May 2013], the big stunner was a 42.7K gain in construction work, shocking because of what appears to be a clear decline in housing starts in Canada. On an annual basis, construction employment is up 5.8%, the fastest of all categories, while the GDP residential construction figures point to continuing declines. But the two realities need not contradict one another. Given ongoing work associated with finishing properties already under construction, residential building employment need not track as precipitous a fall as housing starts. Furthermore, other sectors of construction, including non-residential and heavy & civil engineering construction likely registered increases over the period, according to Canada’s payrolls survey which provides a more detailed breakdown of the category.” 287

On an annual basis, employment increased by 75,300 in trade and by 66,300 in health care and social assistance, accounting for two-thirds of the net new jobs in Canada in the second quarter of 2013. Employment gains were also significant in construction (+50,000), professional, scientific and technical services (+43,300) and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (+38,800). Four industries recorded annual employment losses in the second quarter of 2013. The manufacturing industry posted the largest loss in numbers (-81,800 or -4.5 per cent), followed by other services (-46,500 or -5.7 per cent) and natural resources288 (-19,600 or -5.2 per cent).

Employment in Canada by Industry

CanadaAll IndustriesAgricultureNatural resourcesUtilitiesConstructionManufacturingTradeTransportation & warehousingFinance, insurance, real estate & leasingProfessional, scientific & technical servicesBusiness, building & other support servicesEducational servicesHealth care & social assistanceInformation, culture & recreationAccommodation & food servicesOther servicesPublic administrationSource: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820088, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted


Annual Change

17,717,600 17,661,300 56,300 17,502,300 215,300321,800 318,000 3,800 311,100 10,700359,000 355,000 4,000 378,600 -19,600133,200 132,300 900 137,000 -3,800

1,329,500 1,301,000 28,500 1,279,500 50,0001,728,300 1,740,500 -12,200 1,810,100 -81,8002,700,300 2,698,000 2,300 2,625,000 75,300

858,500 866,500 -8,000 850,300 8,2001,121,100 1,109,400 11,700 1,082,300 38,8001,345,300 1,321,400 23,900 1,302,000 43,300

705,400 703,100 2,300 683,200 22,2001,302,500 1,287,800 14,700 1,275,700 26,8002,180,700 2,166,800 13,900 2,114,400 66,300

779,900 787,500 -7,600 787,800 -7,9001,123,900 1,128,000 -4,100 1,105,500 18,400

762,300 774,500 -12,200 808,800 -46,500966,000 971,500 -5,500 951,200 14,800




286 Statistics Canada, The Daily, Labour Force Survey, June 2013, July 5, 2013.287 CIBC Economics, Economic Flash! Canadian Employment in May: Springtime of Youth, June 7, 2013.288 Forestry, fishing, quarrying, mining and oil and gas.

EMPLOYMENT QUALITYAnother useful measure of the performance of the labour market is job quality. Job quality in Canada, as measured by CIBC’s June 2013 Employment Quality Index, has been stable in recent years, but is still 14 per cent below the levels seen in the late ‘80s.289 CIBC’s Employment Quality Index includes measures of part-time vs. full-time employment, paid vs. self employment, and compensation associated with a given full-time paid job. Part-time jobs are seen as lower quality along with self-employment jobs, as a self-employed person in Canada earns on average 20 per cent less than a regular employee.290

Since 1988, part-time employment in Canada has increased by 56 per cent, compared to only 37 per cent for full-time employment. Self-employment has also increased by 56 per cent over the same time period, much faster than the growth in paid employment of approximately 40 per cent. In addition, employment growth in high paying industries has significantly outpaced job growth in lower paying industries since 1988.

“...by far, the most significant contributor here is the faster pace of employment growth in low-to-mid wage industries relative to high-paying industries. [...] the softening in our quality index largely reflects the fact that job creation in high-paying industries was unable to keep up with the growth seen in low- and mid-wage industries. Since the late 1980s, the number of high-paying full-time jobs rose by only 5%, and that is materially lower than the 40% seen for mid- and low- wage industries. Clearly, the 1991 recession and the jobless recovery that followed, as well as the high-tech bust impacted highly-paid workers disproportionally.”291

Most of the decrease in the overall Employment Quality Index occurred during the 1990s, though growth in employment quality has varied significantly by province. Since 1994, the prairie provinces have seen their level of employment quality rising, with Alberta experiencing an 8 per cent increase from 1994 to 2013. The Index has declined in the remaining provinces over the same time period, with Atlantic Canada and Ontario seeing the largest decreases.

A reduced level of employment quality in part explains the discouraging pace of income growth in Canada, according to CIBC. In 1988, a one per cent increase in employment generated on average a 4.4 per cent rise in real labour income, whereas today, it generates a less than 3.3 increase in real labour income.292

“Simply put, all other things being equal, lower employment quality means that the labour market has to run faster to stay in the same place since we need relatively more workers to generate the same increase in income.”293



289 CIBC Economics, Canadian Employment Quality Index, Job Quality, Not What it Used to Be, Benjamin Tal, June 10, 2013.290 Ibid.291 Ibid, p.2.292 Ibid, p.3.293 Ibid.

AlbertaAlberta has experienced fairly consistent job growth over the past two years, posting measurable month-to-month declines on just four occasions. Employment in Alberta was virtually unchanged in June 2013, following an increase of 14,800 in April and 18,600 in May. May’s employment increase was the largest recorded since June 2011, when the province gained over 20,000 jobs. Overall, employment in Alberta increased by 20,900 or 1.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2013, compared to the previous quarter.

“One of the most highly anticipated reports each month is the Labour Force Survey. Today’s report [June 2013] suggests Alberta is the Goldilocks of job markets: not too hot, and not too cold.”294

Labour Force Statistics - Alberta

Alberta Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Population 3,145,700 3,156,100 3,168,000Labour Force 2,282,100 2,313,500 2,317,000

Employed 2,182,700 2,201,300 2,200,600Unemployed 99,400 112,200 116,500

Participation Rate 72.5% 73.3% 73.1%Employment Rate 69.4% 69.7% 69.5%Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.8% 5.0%Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820087, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted


Annual Change

3,156,600 3,128,500 28,100 3,058,300 98,3002,304,200 2,278,600 25,600 2,252,600 51,6002,194,900 2,174,000 20,900 2,146,700 48,200

109,400 104,600 4,800 105,900 3,50073.0% 72.8% 0.2% 73.7% -0.7%69.5% 69.5% 0.0% 70.2% -0.7%4.7% 4.6% 0.2% 4.7% 0.0%


Year-over-year, employment was up by 48,200 or 2.2 per cent in Alberta in the second quarter of 2013, almost double the Canadian average of 1.2 per cent. Compared to the second quarter of 2012, Alberta enjoyed widespread job growth, with six of the eight economic regions posting positive gains. The Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River region led all regions, with employment growth of 7.1 per cent, followed by Red Deer at 4.6 per cent and Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake at 3.1 per cent. Job losses were seen in Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House (-0.6 per cent) and Lethbridge-Medicine Hat (-3.6 per cent). In fact, June 2013 marked the tenth consecutive month of annual job losses for the Lethbridge-Medicine Hat region.

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294 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Not too hot, not too cold, July 5, 2013.

“Within the region, the city of Medicine Hat has been particularly hard hit. Since 2008, Medicine Hat has struggled economically – not just within the Alberta context, but compared to other mid-sized Canadian cities as well. The city lost 14,000 jobs between 2008 and 2012 and saw its economy decline for five consecutive years over the same period. Medicine Hat has a long history of natural gas development and its five-year slide coincides with the collapse of natural gas prices from almost $10 per gigajoule (the energy equivalent of a barrel of oil) in July 2008 to about $1.50 in May 2012. Other challenges for the community have included the closing of a major brickworks in 2010 and negative spinoff effects related to 2012’s beef recall from the meat packing plant in nearby Brooks. Medicine Hat’s economy suffered further setback in November 2012 when Cenovus (previously EnCana) did not receive approval to drill 1,275 natural gas wells in the nearby Suffield National Wildlife Area.”295

Looking at the province’s major metropolitan areas, Edmonton’s labour market outperformed Calgary’s for the twelfth consecutive month in June 2013. In the second quarter of 2013, employment in the Edmonton region increased by 2.4 per cent on an annual basis, while employment in the Calgary region rose by 1.9 per cent.

Annual Change in Employment by Economic Region in Alberta - Q2 2013

Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM table 282-0054.

Looking ahead, employment in Alberta is forecast to increase by 45,000 in 2013 and by a further 47,000 in 2014.296

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295 Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, Labour Market Bulletin - Alberta, May 2013, p.4-5.296 The Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Alberta, Economic Forecast, Spring 2013, p.69.

UNEMPLOYMENTAlberta’s unemployment rate rose steadily throughout the second quarter of 2013 to average 4.7 per cent. This was up from an average of 4.6 per cent the previous quarter, and unchanged year-over-year. In June 2013, the province’s unemployment rate jumped to 5.0 per cent, a rate not seen since March 2012. However, the unemployment rate is on the rise because of a growing labour force, not because of a loss of jobs.297 Alberta’s labour force, the number of people employed or looking for employment, was 25,600 higher in the second quarter of 2013 compared to the previous quarter, and 51,600 higher year-over-year. At the same time, the number of unemployed Albertans increased by only 3,500 year-over-year in the second quarter of 2013.

Among the economic regions in Alberta, the Camrose-Drumheller region had the lowest average unemployment rate 298 in the second quarter of 2013 at 3.0 per cent, followed by Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River (3.9 per cent), Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House (4.1 per cent), Wood Buffalo (4.5 per cent), Edmonton (4.7 per cent), Calgary (4.9 per cent), Lethbridge-Medicine Hat (5.9 per cent) and Red Deer (6.0 per cent). The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting Alberta’s unemployment rate will average 4.6 per cent in 2013 and 4.5 per cent in 2014.299

Another measure of the health of the labour market, along with the unemployment rate, is the average length of unemployment. The average duration of unemployment in Alberta declined to 12.9 weeks in the second quarter of 2013, from 13.2 weeks the previous quarter. At the national level, the average duration of unemployment increased from 18.4 weeks in the first quarter of 2013 to 18.9 weeks in the second quarter of 2013. Alberta had the lowest average duration of unemployment in the second quarter of 2013, followed by Saskatchewan (13.3 weeks) and Manitoba (15.3 weeks). Ontario and Quebec had the highest figures in Q2 2013, at 20.6 weeks and 19.4 weeks respectively.

The number of long term unemployed persons in Alberta (those who are jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose to 14,800 in June 2013, from 14,600 in June 2012, accounting for 13.0 per cent of the total unemployed in the province. This was down from June 2012, when the number of long-term unemployed persons accounted for 14.9 per cent of the unemployed.300

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297 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Not too hot, not too cold, July 5, 2013.298 Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820054, Labour Force Survey, 3-month moving average, seasonally unadjusted.299 The Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Alberta, Economic Forecast, Spring 2013, p.69.300 Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 282-0047, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), duration of unemployment by sex and age group, unadjusted for seasonality, monthly.

EMPLOYMENT BY TYPE OF WORK, GENDER AND AGEFull-time employment in Alberta accounted for all of the employment increase in the second quarter of 2013. A nearly 75,000 annual increase in full-time employment was offset by a 26,500 annual decline in part-time work.

“Alberta is clearly the leader when it comes to employment—both in terms of the percentage gain in total jobs and the relative gain in full-time work. Since June 2010, employment has increased 8.9 per cent. But even better, full-time work has increased by an astounding 11.5 per cent while part-time positions actually fell by 3.2 per cent. [...] Other provinces have not faired nearly as well. In Ontario, full-time jobs increased by 4.2 per cent and part-time by 2.0 per cent—slightly worse than the national average. British Columbia gained only 3.9 per cent full-time jobs but no part-time jobs at all. This helps explain why Alberta has been the recipient of a good deal of inter-provincial migrants from these two provinces.”301

Both men and women in Alberta recorded gains in employment on an annual basis in the second quarter of 2013. Employment for men increased by 24,600 or 2.1 per cent year-over-year and employment for women increased by 23,600 or 2.5 per cent.

Older workers, those aged 55 years and over, led employment growth in Alberta in the second quarter of 2013, with employment for this age group up 5.0 per cent year-over-year. Employment also rose 2.5 per cent for core-aged adults aged 25 - 54 over the same time period. Employment for youth aged 15 - 24 declined 2.1 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter of 2013.

Employment in Alberta by Type of Work, Gender, and Age

Alberta Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Employment 2,182,700 2,201,300 2,200,600 Full-time 1,862,400 1,855,000 1,857,300 Part-time 320,300 346,300 343,300 Men 1,208,300 1,218,300 1,212,100 Women 974,400 983,000 988,500 15 - 24 years 308,200 319,000 318,900 25 - 54 years 1,486,400 1,490,800 1,479,800 55 years + 388,000 391,500 401,800 Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820001, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted

Q2 20132,194,900 1,858,200

336,600 1,212,900

982,000 315,400

1,485,700 393,800


Q2 2012Annual Change

2,146,700 48,2001,783,500 74,700

363,100 -26,5001,188,300 24,600

958,400 23,600322,200 -6,800

1,449,400 36,300375,200 18,600


EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRYEmployment increased in 10 of 18 industries in Alberta on an annual basis in the second quarter of 2013. The industries with the most notable employment gains in numbers included professional, scientific and technical services (+27,700 or +18 per cent), agriculture (+11,400 or +20 per cent), wholesale trade (+8,600 or +11 per cent) and construction (+8,400 or +3.7 per cent).

With the exception of public administration, where employment was unchanged, employment declined in the remaining industries year-over-year in the second quarter of 2013. The most significant employment losses were experienced in mining and oil and gas (-15,700 or -8.7 per cent) and accommodation and food services (-7,300 or -5.3 per cent).



301 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Full-time vs. part-time work, July 11, 2013.

Employment in Alberta by Industry (unadjusted)

Alberta Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13All Industries 2,157,300 2,223,100 2,234,000 Agriculture 63,000 71,300 69,600 Forestry and logging with support activities 4,400 2,500 2,500 Mining and oil and gas extraction 163,700 164,700 165,700 Utilities 17,400 15,300 16,400 Construction 221,100 238,800 241,600 Manufacturing 136,400 135,900 133,200 Wholesale trade 89,700 87,300 81,400 Retail trade 224,800 237,400 255,500 Transportation & warehousing 113,300 114,100 112,400 Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing 110,900 107,500 106,300 Professional, scientific & technical services 177,200 185,500 185,400 Business, building & other support services 66,300 77,400 79,700 Educational services 141,200 139,500 130,500 Health care and social assistance 239,200 233,500 230,600 Information, culture & recreation 68,100 77,500 82,600 Accommodation & food services 127,200 133,700 133,200 Other services 105,900 108,100 109,900 Public administration 87,600 92,900 97,400 Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820007, Labour Force Survey, unadjusted for seasonality

Q2 2013 Q2 2012Annual Change

2,204,800 2,157,100 47,70068,000 56,600 11,4003,100 3,300 -200

164,700 180,400 -15,70016,400 20,100 -3,700

233,800 225,400 8,400135,200 138,300 -3,10086,100 77,500 8,600

239,200 242,500 -3,300113,300 115,300 -2,000108,200 101,100 7,100182,700 155,000 27,70074,500 71,400 3,100

137,100 134,100 3,000234,400 227,300 7,10076,100 71,400 4,700

131,400 138,700 -7,300108,000 106,000 2,00092,600 92,600 0



Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)Following a gain of 8,000 jobs in the first quarter of 2013, employment in the Calgary CMA was little changed on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2013 (-700).

On an annual basis, employment in the Calgary CMA has increased by 10,700 or 1.4 per cent since the second quarter of 2012. The most significant gains in employment year-over-year in the second quarter of 2013 were in health care and social assistance (+12,200 or +17 per cent), professional, scientific and technical services (+11,200 or +13 per cent), business, building and other support services (+5,200 or +23 per cent), transportation and warehousing (+4,700 or +11 per cent) and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (+4,100 or +11 per cent). The significant increase in health care and social assistance employment is likely due to the ongoing staffing of Calgary’s new South Health Campus Hospital.

These increases were offset by annual losses in manufacturing (-9,800 or -19 per cent), natural resources (-7,300 or -11 per cent), other services (-4,900 or -13 per cent) and accommodation and food services (-4,900 or -10 per cent).302

Labour Force Statistics - Calgary CMA

Calgary CMA Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Population 1,083,000 1,086,700 1,090,900Labour Force 798,700 800,200 804,000

Employed 761,400 761,300 763,500Unemployed 37,300 38,900 40,500

Participation Rate 73.7% 73.6% 73.7%Employment Rate 70.3% 70.1% 70.0%Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820116, Labour Force Survey, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted


Annual Change

1,086,900 1,076,600 10,300 1,050,800 36,100801,000 803,000 -2,000 790,100 10,900762,100 762,800 -700 751,400 10,70038,900 40,200 -1,300 38,800 10073.7% 74.6% -0.9% 75.2% -1.5%70.1% 70.9% -0.8% 71.5% -1.4%4.9% 5.0% -0.1% 4.9% 0.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 2820116, Labour Force Survey, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted

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302 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table 2820011, unadjusted (3 month moving average)

Overall, employment in the Calgary CMA is projected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2013, translating into approximately 12,500 net new jobs.

“Given the slower economic outlook, job prospects in Calgary are also set to cool this year. Indeed, after going up by 3.7 per cent in 2012, total employment is expected to rise by 1 .7 per cent this year [...]. Still, income levels in Calgary will remain the highest in the country.”303

Calgary’s non-commercial services (+8.7 per cent), business services (+8.3 per cent), finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (+6.5 per cent) and wholesale and retail trade industries (+4.7 per cent) are forecast to lead employment growth in 2013. Employment losses are projected in the information and culture (-16.6 per cent), primary and utilities (-8.7 per cent), manufacturing (-6.4 per cent) and public administration industries (-6.3 per cent).304

UNEMPLOYMENTCalgary’s unemployment rate averaged 4.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2013, down from 5.0 per cent the previous quarter and unchanged year-over-year. Looking ahead, the Calgary Economic Region’s unemployment rate is projected to average 4.4 per cent in 2014, gradually declining to 4.0 per cent in 2018, as employment growth outpaces labour force growth.305

Among the 15 metropolitan areas shown in the following chart, four had an unemployment rate above the national average of 7.1 per cent in June 2013. St. John and Windsor had the highest unemployment rates among major metropolitan areas in Canada in June 2013 at 11.2 and 9.4 per cent respectively. Regina and Saskatoon had the lowest unemployment rates in June, both under 4.0 per cent.

Unemployment Rates of Canadian Cities (CMAs)—June 2013

3.7%!3.9%!4.6%!4.8%!5.0%!

5.5%!6.1%!6.3%!6.3%!6.5%!6.6%!

7.8%!8.2%!

9.4%!

11.2%!

0.0%!

2.0%!

4.0%!

6.0%!

8.0%!

10.0%!

12.0%!

Regina!

Saska

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Edmon

ton!

Quebe

c!

Calgary!

Victoria!

St. Joh

n's NL!

Winnipe

g!

Ottawa-G

atine

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Vanco

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Halifax!

Toron

to!

Montre

al!

Windso

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St. Joh

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Une

mpl

oym

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ate

(%)!



303 Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1, Spring 2013, p.4.304 Ibid, p.7.305 City of Calgary, Corporate Economics, Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2013-2018, Spring 2013, p.14.

Calgary’s participation rate306 was 73.3 per cent in June 2013, relatively unchanged throughout the second quarter of 2013. Edmonton’s participation rate climbed steadily throughout the quarter, increasing from 72.1 per cent in April 2013 to 72.8 per cent in June 2013.

Among the 15 metropolitan areas shown in the chart below, the major metropolitan areas in Saskatchewan and Alberta posted the highest participation rates in the country in June 2013. Regina posted the highest rate at 75.6 per cent, followed by Calgary (73.7 per cent), Edmonton (72.8 per cent) and Saskatoon (72.0 per cent). Vancouver and Victoria were the only Western metropolitan areas to post a participation rate below the national average of 66.6 per cent in June 2013.

Participation Rates of Canadian Cities (CMAs) - June 2013

62.7%!63.8%!

65.2%!65.4%!67.2%!

68.4%!68.5%!69.2%!69.3%!69.8%!69.9%!72.0%!72.8%!

73.7%!75.6%!

50.0%!

55.0%!

60.0%!

65.0%!

70.0%!

75.0%!

80.0%!

Windso

r!

Victoria!

Vanco

uver!

St. Joh

n NB!

Montre

al!

Toron

to!

Quebe

c!

St. Joh

n's NL!

Ottawa-G

atine

au!

Winnipe

g!

Halifax!

Saska

toon!

Edmon

ton!

Calgary!

Regina!

Part

icip

atio

n R

ate

(%)!

LAYOFFSThe most significant layoff announcement near the end of the second quarter/beginning of the third quarter 2013 came from the Calgary Zoo. An estimated $50 million in damages from severe flooding, the second worst natural disaster to hit Canada after the 1998 ice storms in Quebec and eastern Ontario,307 forced the Zoo to layoff about 300 employees. As a result, approximately 160 permanent and part time employees from the catering, facilities, horticulture and sales departments lost their jobs, along with about 125 seasonal staff, mostly summer students. An additional 15 City of Calgary employees who were part of the horticulture staff were also laid off. The zoo will not be able to resume full operations until late November 2013, but is expected to reopen in stages starting on July 31.308

69.0%!70.0%!71.0%!72.0%!73.0%!74.0%!75.0%!76.0%!77.0%!78.0%!79.0%!

Jun-0

7!

Sep-07!

Dec-07!

Mar-08!

Jun-0

8!

Sep-08!

Dec-08!

Mar-09!

Jun-0

9!

Sep-09!

Dec-09!

Mar-10!

Jun-1

0!

Sep-10!

Dec-10!

Mar-11!

Jun-1

1!

Sep-11!

Dec-11!

Mar-12!

Jun-1

2!

Sep-12!

Dec-12!

Mar-13!

Jun-1

3!

Parti

cipa

tion

Rate

(%)!

Labour Force Participation Rates, Calgary & Edmonton CMAs!Calgary! Edmonton!



306 Total labour force expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 years and over that is either employed or actively looking for employment.307 RBC Economics, Current Analysis, Economic Impart of Alberta Floods, June 27, 2013.308 Global News, Calgary Zoo announces another round of layoffs, Tamara Elliott, July 4, 2013.

It is expected that the floods, which crested after June 20, 2013 will have an impact on employment, however, the Labour Force Survey reference period (June 9 - 15) will not have recorded the most severe affects of the flood. ATB Financial expects that job losses may show up in the July survey.309

At this early stage, TD Economics estimates that disruptions due to the flooding subtracted up to $1.5 billion in economic activity in June 2013, equal to up to 0.5 per cent of Alberta real GDP. In addition, output and employment in the services-producing industries will likely be the most affected.

“With Calgary right at the centre of this crisis, industries that are likely to be hit the hardest are on the service side, including retail and wholesale trade. In addition, damage to transportation infrastructure, such as the Trans Canada highway and rail system, will weigh on transportation services and manufacturing. Utilities output will also be severely impacted. While employees of oil and gas producers headquartered in Calgary have been affected, energy production in the province (which accounts for 29% of real GDP) has suffered only minor setbacks during the crisis.”310

As rebuilding efforts begin in the second half of the year, TD Economics also points out that Alberta’s tight labour market poses a risk.

“A risk to both the timing of spending and cost of rebuilding relates to the supply of available labour. Alberta exhibits one of the tightest labour markets in the country, with an unemployment rate of 4.8% in May. As a result, the surge in hiring within the construction sector could lead to timing delays and drive up labour costs. Greater inflationary upward pressure may arise as a result. Recruiting from other provinces and abroad could help to mitigate this risk.”311



309 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Not too hot, not too cold, July 5, 2013.310 TD Economics, Economic Briefing, Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Flooding in Alberta, June 26, 2013, p.1.311 Ibid, p.2.

Calgary & Area Employer SurveyThe purpose of the quarterly survey is to gather information from Calgary and area employers on their recruitment and retention practices and various other employment issues they are facing. Over the course of the year, employers will be divided into four categories based on the number of employees in the company and results of the survey will be reported on as follows:

Q1 2013: Large-sized companies with 100+ employees

Q2 2013: Medium-sized companies with 50 – 99 employees

Q3 2013: Small-sized companies with 10 – 49 employees

Q4 2013: Micro-sized companies with <10 employees

Q2 2013 Survey Results: Medium-Sized Companies (50 - 99 Employees)In the second quarter of 2013, a survey was conducted of 200 Calgary and area medium-sized companies. For additional information on survey methodology, see Appendix A.

PROFILE OF COMPANIESThe 200 companies surveyed employ approximately 14,071 people. Of this total, 77 per cent are full-time employees, 14 per cent are part-time employees, and 9 per cent are ‘other’ employees (contract, seasonal, casual, temporary, relief, not specified).

Number of Employees and Companies Surveyed in Q2 2013

Industry Total Employees

Number of Companies

Mining & Oil & Gas 1,397 20Construction 1,461 20Manufacturing 1,344 20Wholesale & Retail Trade 1,425 20Transportation & Warehousing 1,260 20Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,490 20Health Care & Social Assistance 1,425 20Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 1,344 20Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 1,402 20Other 1,523 20Total 14,071 200

Note: “Other” represents companies from the remainder of the industry categories: Agriculture, Utilities, Information and Culture, Management of Companies, Administrative and Support Services, Educational Services, Other Services, and Public

Administration.



BUSINESS ACTIVITYOn balance, 14 per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 said their company expanded in the year prior to their survey, down from 21 per cent in Q2 2012.

Employers were asked questions about their past and future business activity. Specifically, they were asked if their company expanded or downsized in the 12 months prior to their survey, and if they anticipated a business expansion or downsize in the 12 months following their survey.

Twenty-three per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 said their company expanded in the 12 months prior to their survey and 9 per cent reported their company downsized, resulting in a positive balance312 of 14 per cent. In Q2 2012, 30 per cent of the companies expanded and 9 per cent downsized, for a positive balance of 21 per cent.

In Q2 2013, one-quarter of the employers in the transportation and warehousing and professional scientific and technical services industries on balance reported their company expanded in the prior year. While the professional, scientific and technical services industry recorded similar results in the Q2 2012 survey (27 per cent expanded on balance), this was a significant improvement for the transportation and warehousing industry when only 5 per cent of the employers on balance reported they expanded.

None of the mining and oil and gas employers on balance said their company expanded in the previous year, down substantially from the 2012 results when 30 per cent of the employers in this industry category reported their company expanded.Past Business ActivityPercentage of companies that expanded or downsized in the 12 months prior to their survey

Expanded Downsized Balance Expanded Downsized BalanceOverall Results 30% 9% 21% 23% 9% 14%

Results by IndustryMining & Oil & Gas 45% 15% 30% 25% 25% 0%Construction 25% 15% 10% 20% 10% 10%Manufacturing 27% 18% 9% 20% 10% 10%Wholesale & Retail Trade 38% 0% 38% 20% 5% 15%Transportation & Warehousing 15% 10% 5% 35% 10% 25%Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 36% 9% 27% 25% 0% 25%Health Care & Social Assistance 35% 0% 35% 25% 10% 15%Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 15% 5% 10% 5% 0% 5%Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 23% 9% 14% 25% 10% 15%Other 38% 5% 33% 30% 10% 20%

Q2 2012 Q2 2013

Comments

“We relocated and moved some functions in Western Canada into Calgary, which resulted in an increase of about 20 positions. We also opened a second office in Calgary.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

21%!

14%!

0%!

5%!

10%!

15%!

20%!

25%!

Q2 2012! Q2 2013!Q2 2013: Expanded: 23% Downsized: 9%!Q2 2012: Expanded: 30% Downsized: 9%!

Past Business Activity: Balance of Opinion !Has your company expanded or downsized !

in the last 12 months?!Overall Results!



312 Percentage of companies reporting an expansion minus percentage of companies reporting a downsize.

“We are starting a downsize.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We expanded because of an increase in work.” - Manufacturing

“In the past year, all of them. We expanded, downsized and relocated at some point in that time period.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“Last week, we downsized.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We acquired [company name] and brought on 15 employees through that.” - Other

“We've recently been acquired by [company name] and our HR recruiting department is now in the US, but based on my history with the company I would say that we’ve expanded.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“We just sold off our Calgary and Lethbridge branches.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We have had a couple of acquisitions in the past year.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We were in Leduc and now we are in Calgary.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

“We have definitely expanded, as we just bought 6 new locations in Alberta.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

One-fifth of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate a business expansion in the next 12 months, down from approximately one-quarter in Q2 2012.

Twenty-six per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate their company will expand in the 12 months following their survey and 6 per cent anticipate their company will downsize, for a positive balance313 of 20 per cent. These results are down slightly from the Q2 2012 results, when 24 per cent of the employers on balance anticipated their company would expand in the year following their survey.

In Q2 2013, some industries are more positive than others regarding future business activity. Forty-five percent of the employers in the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing industry and 40 per cent of the employers in the mining and oil and gas industry anticipate a business expansion, similar to the 2012 results. In contrast, one-fifth of the health care and social assistance employers on balance anticipate a business downsize, a significant deterioration from the 2012 results when one-quarter of the employers in this industry anticipated a business expansion.

24%!20%!

0%!

5%!

10%!

15%!

20%!

25%!

30%!

Q2 2012! Q2 2013!Q2 2013: Expansion: 26% Downsize: 6%!Q2 2012: Expansion: 26% Downsize: 2%!

Future Business Activity: Balance of Opinion !Do you anticipate a business expansion or downsize !

in the next 12 months?!Overall Results!



313 Percentage of companies anticipating a business expansion minus percentage of companies anticipating a business downsize.

Future Business ActivityPercentage of companies that anticipate an expansion or downsize in the 12 months following their survey

Expansion Downsize Balance Expansion Downsize BalanceOverall Results 26% 2% 24% 26% 6% 20%

Results by IndustryMining & Oil & Gas 45% 0% 45% 45% 5% 40%Construction 20% 5% 15% 30% 0% 30%Manufacturing 14% 5% 9% 15% 5% 10%Wholesale & Retail Trade 24% 5% 19% 25% 0% 25%Transportation & Warehousing 20% 5% 15% 35% 5% 30%Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 36% 0% 36% 30% 5% 25%Health Care & Social Assistance 25% 0% 25% 5% 25% -20%Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 0% 0% 0% 20% 10% 10%Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 41% 0% 41% 45% 0% 45%Other 33% 0% 33% 5% 5% 0%

Q2 2012 Q2 2013

Comments

“We are in a planning and rebuilding stage that will probably require us to downsize in the short term.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We will be sold soon to another company. Our senior owner wants to retire, so a different company will take over.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We are projecting a small expansion.” - Construction

“Probably an expansion. We have a little bit of growth every year. We average a 12% growth rate every year.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We are going into heavy recruitment starting in two weeks. Let's just say we're in expansion mode.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We may undergo possible expansion, perhaps adding up to another 10 roles.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We're going to maintain. We've been around for 30 years.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We're undergoing a reorganization, so we may be downsizing.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We will lose 5 positions because funding for a program will be ending in March.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We expect that both our revenues and our employee numbers will grow.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“I would love to expand, but I’m having a hard time finding people.” - Manufacturing

“We're merging our Calgary location with the Rockyview location and downsizing more.” - Manufacturing

“We have one more property still up for sale. If the property is gone, it might affect some employees.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“It's a possibility that we will downsize or close one of our facilities.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We anticipate more acquisitions. We're in a little bit of a growth mode.” - Transportation & Warehousing



“I anticipate more expansion. We add equipment every year specifically.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We just opened 2 more locations in Ontario and I don't see the acquisitions slowing down.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

EMPLOYMENT: PAST LAYOFFS, VACANT POSITIONS, AND FUTURE EMPLOYMENTIn Q2 2013, 20 per cent of the employers reported they laid off employees in the previous three months, up slightly from 15 per cent the previous year.

Twenty per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 reported they laid off workers in the three months prior to their survey. Approximately 350 people were reported as being laid off. In Q2 2012, 15 per cent said their company had laid off about 140 workers in the three months prior to their survey. Thirty-five per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 in the professional, scientific and technical services industry reported they laid off workers, up significantly from 18 per cent in 2012. In contrast, only 5 per cent of the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment and ‘other’ employers laid off employees, both down from the 2012 results.

Comments

“Summer time is the busy time here, so we definitely wouldn’t have laid anyone off in the past 3 months. We don't do layoffs, but many people quit.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We have layoffs due to projects and contracts ending that lead to a shortage of work.” - Construction

“We are sponsoring a few RAP students. One RAP student welder was let go because of lack of work.” - Construction

“We haven’t had layoffs recently. We're hiring right now because this is our busy season.” - Construction

““We have had people leave and we haven't filled those positions, but we haven't laid anyone off yet. We're funded by the provincial government and once we hear what our funding reductions will be we will likely be laying off some people.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We have had no formal layoffs, but we have had a few terminations.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We had a work stoppage and labour dispute. We had to hire replacement workers for our regular staff. Then, once the union resolved the issue with strikers, we had a surplus of temporary workers. We had to layoff about 45 people.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We laid one person off as a forced retirement.” - Manufacturing

Past LayoffsPercentage of companies that laid off employees in the three months prior to their survey

Q2 2012 Q2 2013Overall Results 15% 20%

Results by IndustryMining & Oil & Gas 20% 30%Construction 15% 25%Manufacturing 23% 20%Wholesale & Retail Trade 19% 15%Transportation & Warehousing 5% 20%Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 18% 35%Health Care & Social Assistance 5% 25%Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 15% 5%Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 5% 20%Other 24% 5%



“We've terminated some people, but no layoffs.” - Manufacturing

“Previously we have downsized through layoffs, but not in the last 3 months.” - Manufacturing

“We laid off 36 people. That's all full time, permanent staff layoffs.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We have not laid anyone off in the last 5 years.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“No, but we've terminated some employees. In the last 3 months, we’ve terminated 2 people.” - Other

“We have terminated about 10 people, but not due to economic conditions.” - Other

“We laid off 38 people with our end of season.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“Spring break up for us is in April. In terms of layoffs, we let go of about 40 drivers. They often return to the company. We have fellows who have worked every winter for 10 years with us. Some go home to fish in PEI or stay to farm in Alberta in the summer. We look for these types of seasonal employees so that we have returning people.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We've let people go for performance issues, but not formal layoffs.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

“We've never laid off anyone.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

“We laid off 15 people because of our relocation.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

Close to 60 per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 had vacant positions that needed to be filled, up slightly from the 2012 results.

Fifty-nine per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 said they had vacant positions that needed to be filled at the time of their survey, up slightly from 56 per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2012. In Q2 2013, three-quarters of the employers in the wholesale and retail trade and accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment industries had vacant positions, both up from the previous year’s results. In contrast, only 35 per cent of the employers in the mining and oil and gas industry had vacant positions at the time of their survey, down from 55 per cent when surveyed in Q2 2012.

Overall, employers reported they had 536 vacancies that needed to be filled in Q2 2013, down from 675 vacancies reported the previous year. Overall, this equates to a vacancy rate of 3.7 per cent for Q2 2013. Vacancy rates ranged from a low of 1.6 per cent in the mining and oil and gas industry to a high of 5.4 per cent in the manufacturing and accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment industries.

Vacant PositionsPercentage of companies that had vacant positions that needed to be filled





Job Vacancy Rates

Industry # of Vacant Positions

Mining & Oil & Gas 39Construction 106Manufacturing 76Wholesale & Retail Trade 55Transportation & Warehousing 60Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 66Health Care & Social Assistance 54Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 176Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 18Other 25Total 675

Q2 2012Vacancy

Rate# of Vacant Positions

2.8% 227.2% 764.6% 773.3% 474.4% 464.0% 523.6% 32

12.5% 761.1% 431.7% 654.4% 536

Q2 2012 Q2 2013Vacancy

Rate

1.6%4.9%5.4%3.2%3.5%3.4%2.2%5.4%3.0%4.1%3.7%

Q2 2013

Mining & Oil & Gas – Vacant Positions

NOC Code Occupation Vacant Positions

8222 Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service 72133 Electrical and electronics engineers 57312 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 26221 Technical sales specialists 20211 Engineering managers 20911 Manufacturing managers 11111 Financial auditors and accountants 12263 Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety 11112 Financial and investment analysts 1Total 22

Construction – Vacant Positions


7611 Construction trades helpers and labourers 202131 Civil engineers 147521 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 112254 Land survey technologists and technicians 100711 Construction managers 57281 Bricklayers 57511 Truck drivers 22153 Urban and land use planners 27241 Electricians (except industrial and power system) 11123 Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations 12264 Construction inspectors 17291 Roofers and shinglers 11452 Regulatory clerks 17205 Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers 12231 Civil engineering technologists and technicians 1Total 76



Manufacturing – Vacant Positions


9523 Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers 159617 Labourers in food, beverage and tobacco processing 119619 Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 72141 Industrial and manufacturing engineers 61121 Specialists in human resources 57452 Material handlers 57612 Other trades helpers and labourers 52243 Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 47236 Ironworkers 41521 Shippers and receivers 39536 Painters and coaters - industrial 31111 Financial auditors and accountants 26421 Retail salespersons 21221 Administrative officers 12133 Electrical and electronics engineers 14163 Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants 17241 Electricians (except industrial and power system) 17511 Truck drivers 1Total 77

Wholesale & Retail Trade – Vacant Positions


6421 Retail salespersons 126611 Cashiers 46622 Grocery clerks and store shelf stockers 46411 Sales representatives - wholesale trade 46341 Hairstylists and barbers 37312 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 20621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 23236 Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment 27335 Other small engine and small equipment repairers 21215 Supervisors, recording, distributing and scheduling occupations 20122 Banking, credit and other investment managers 19619 Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 12243 Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 11521 Shippers and receivers 16732 Specialized cleaners 11522 Storekeepers and parts clerks 17231 Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors 17272 Cabinetmakers 10125 Other business services managers 19437 Woodworking machine operators 1Total 47



Transportation & Warehousing – Vacant Positions


7511 Truck drivers 257312 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 117441 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 37452 Material handlers 31521 Shippers and receivers 11523 Production clerks 11525 Dispatchers and radio operators 17535 Automotive mechanical installers and servicers 1Total 46

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services – Vacant Positions


2172 Database analysts and data administrators 72131 Civil engineers 52171 Information systems analysts and consultants 42173 Software engineers and designers 44163 Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants 42144 Geological engineers 42261 Non-destructive testers and inspectors 41111 Financial auditors and accountants 22241 Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians 22121 Biologists and related scientists 22254 Land survey technologists and technicians 26221 Technical sales specialists 20111 Financial managers 10212 Architecture and science managers 11221 Administrative officers 11241 Secretaries (except legal and medical) 16221 Technical sales specialists 10013 Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services 10601 Corporate sales managers 12231 Civil engineering technologists and technicians 12251 Architectural technologists and technicians 19241 Stationary engineers and auxiliary equipment operators 1Total 52

Health Care & Social Assistance – Vacant Positions


4412 Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 124212 Community and social service workers 74153 Family, marriage and other related counsellors 53413 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 24214 Early childhood educators and assistants 24152 Social workers 23012 Registered nurses 14165 Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers 1Total 32



Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment & Recreation - Vacant Positions


6731 Light duty cleaners 216513 Food and beverage servers 176322 Cooks 106722 Operators and attendants in amusement, recreation and sport 106525 Hotel front desk clerks 66711 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations 58612 Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 36511 Maîtres d'hôtel and hosts/hostesses 21414 Receptionists and switchboard operators 16733 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 1Total 76

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing - Vacant Positions


6232 Real estate agents and salespersons 206733 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 46231 Insurance agents and brokers 40111 Financial managers 20122 Banking, credit and other investment managers 21111 Financial auditors and accountants 21121 Specialists in human resources 11221 Administrative officers 11242 Legal secretaries 11414 Receptionists and switchboard operators 12171 Information systems analysts and consultants 11313 Insurance underwriters 11312 Insurance adjusters and claims examiners 11224 Property administrators 10213 Information systems managers 1Total 43

Other – Vacant Positions


6541 Other protective service occupations 409619 Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 61121 Specialists in human resources 24163 Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants 26421 Retail salespersons 25254 Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 27511 Truck drivers 24031 Secondary school teachers 20111 Financial managers 11111 Financial auditors and accountants 11222 Executive assistants 14413 Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants 11123 Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations 14032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 15223 Graphic arts technicians 1Total 65



Comments

“We are currently looking for a development officer. We have had problems with this position because immigration pulled our work permit.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We do have two front line worker positions open, but we won't fill those until we know what our funding reductions are.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We are always looking to fill nursing positions. This is an ongoing situation with high turnover of staff and the constant need for casuals.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We’re looking for engineers and instrumentation technologists. Within these general areas, we are hoping to hire people at all different levels - junior, intermediate, senior - which are driven by length of service and level of experience.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We are currently interviewing for 2 and have already hired 1. Some staff are leaving so we're not increasing staff but we're replacing retirements.” - Other

“Perhaps 1 or 2, if the right people came along. We'll always hire an experienced civil engineer or a senior engineer. We hire surveyor assistants often because they come and go on regular basis and they're our hourly employees.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“If we could find 2 business development executives and 2 service developers, we would hire them.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“If I can find people, I will hire them. It is a bit of a challenge hiring architects and IT people.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“Yes, we have vacant positions because it's very challenging to find heavy duty mechanics. Often, there are none.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We could use as many drivers as we can get.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We will always hire if we find a good sales representative.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

On balance, 28 per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate employment in their company will increase over the next three months.

Thirty-two per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate employment in their company will increase in the next three months and 4 per cent anticipate employment will decrease, for a positive balance314 of 28 per cent. These results are similar to the Q2 2012 results.

In Q2 2013, employers from the mining and oil and gas and construction industries were the most positive about future employment levels, with half anticipating an increase in employment in the three months following their survey. In contrast, none of the health care and social assistance employers on balance anticipate employment will increase in the next three months, down from 20 per cent when surveyed in Q2 2012.

28%! 28%!

0%!5%!

10%!15%!20%!25%!30%!35%!

Q2 2012! Q2 2013!Q2 2013: Increase: 32% Decrease: 4% Same/Unsure: 64%!Q2 2012: Increase: 30% Decrease: 2% Same/Unsure: 68%!

Future Employment: Balance of Opinion !Do you anticipate employment will increase, decrease, or

stay the same in the next 3 months?!Overall Results!



314 Percentage of companies that anticipate employment in their company will increase in the next three months minus the percentage of companies that anticipate employment will decrease.

Future EmploymentPercentage of companies that anticipated an increase or decrease in total employment in the 3 months following their survey

Increase Decrease Balance Increase Decrease BalanceOverall Results 30% 2% 28% 32% 4% 28%


Q2 2012 Q2 2013

Comments

“We will increase with our renovation by 10-15%.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We will be laying off 85 people with the end of our season. By the middle of October, we will have 10 employees.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We are in the hospitality industry, so our peak time is now with it being summer and Stampede. In September, we will downsize by 5-10 people. That's the nature of the business though, with a seasonal peak in sales and staff who are students returning to school.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“October is the end of our season. At that time, we will let our seasonal staff of 70 people go.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“For now, we will stay the same. We will increase in November with our busy season.” - Construction

“In the summer, we will increase by 30-35 people.” - Construction

“Within the next year, we will increase by 20 people. How many of those people are hired in the next 3 months depends on how fast we can hire.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We are contemplating hiring another 6 or so.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“Our number of salespeople will increase fairly dramatically. I am anticipating to increase by 30-35 in the next 3 months. I have a meeting today to determine whether or not we will take over another real estate office. This will very likely happen.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We find out about funding cuts as of tomorrow, so until then I can't say for sure. As I'm sure you've heard on the news, we’ll be experiencing significant changes. I'd give a ballpark figure that we’ll be decreasing by 8-10 employees.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“That's difficult to answer. We're closed for the summer. The same staff will return in September. Some have been here 20-25 years.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We will be decreasing later in the year, but staying the same for the next 3 months.” - Health Care & Social Assistance



“We have some expansion going on. We're looking into hiring more because we have huge growth potential. We are looking at increasing our manufacturing capacity and there is product development taking place. I'm positive about needing more people, but if we do not meet our targets we may not hire.” - Manufacturing

“I’m hoping it will maintain, but it's hard to say because it looks like things are starting to slow down.” - Manufacturing

TEMPORARY FOREIGN WORKERSTwenty-six per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 employ temporary foreign workers, up from 19 per cent the previous year.

Twenty-six per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 reported they employ approximately 260 temporary foreign workers. These results were up from the Q2 2012 results, when 19 per cent of the employers reported they employed about 240 temporary foreign workers. Half of the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment employers surveyed in Q2 2013 employ temporary foreign workers, similar to the results obtained in 2012. Forty per cent of the wholesale and retail trade employers said they employ temporary foreign workers, a significant jump from the 2012 results when 24 per cent of the employers indicated they had temporary foreign workers.

Comments

“We did have temporary foreign workers 5 years ago, but do not right now.” - Construction

“We have 3 temporary foreign workers from the UK. They don't have their permanent residency yet, but I think they’re in the process of getting it.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We do have one temporary foreign worker, but we are going through the process to help him get his permanent residency.” - Other

“We had 2 employees come to us from Ireland on temporary foreign worker visas, but they now have permanent work visas.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“I think every temporary foreign worker that we've hired is now a permanent resident.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“We have 3 temporary foreign workers, and 2 of those are going through the process to get their citizenship.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We have about half a dozen in Calgary now, all from England. A couple of those England LMOs relocated to Calgary from our Ontario locations.” - Transportation & Warehousing

Temporary Foreign WorkersPercentage of companies that employed temporary foreign workers at the time of their survey





Twelve per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate hiring temporary foreign workers in the next year.

Twelve per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate applying for or hiring approximately 130 temporary foreign workers in the 12 months following their survey. In Q2 2012, 13 per cent of the employers anticipated applying for or hiring an additional 190 temporary foreign workers. In Q2 2013, one-quarter of the employers in the wholesale and retail trade and accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment industries anticipate hiring temporary foreign workers in the year following their survey. None of the employers from the health care and social assistance industry have plans to apply for or hire temporary foreign workers in the next year, unchanged from the 2012 results.

Comments

“We’re just looking at applying for some. I was just recently talking to LMO about the process.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We currently have an approved LMO sent off to an individual in the Philippines, but we haven't heard back yet.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We’re looking at hiring 20-30 temporary foreign workers from Croatia.” - Construction

“We are a small, unionized environment. This causes difficulties with temporary foreign workers meeting our requirements. We have looked into it a couple of times in the past, but we can't guarantee the wages and money the program requires. Plus, we don't have very high turnover here. We do get a lot of practicum students and hire out of those placements, so we don't need to use temporary foreign workers.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“Before we even go to that route, we have to advertise so much to fill that position. We haven't had to look at helping anyone with their work visa for 3 years.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We are looking at hiring 12-16 temporary foreign workers. So far, we have had our best success from the Philippines and the UK. We have not had good success at all in Mexico.” - Manufacturing

“They can't work for us. The government rules and guidelines put a lot of restrictions on who we can hire.” - Other

“This depends on the LMO and internal transfers. I guess we will probably hire 3 more in the next year. We are looking at Venezuela and Brazil and have someone coming over from Russia already.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

Future Temporary Foreign WorkersPercentage of companies that anticipate applying for or hiring temporary foreign workers in the 12 months following their survey





“Hiring temporary foreign workers is against my beliefs. There are lots of people in Canada without jobs and there should be government programs to help those people. This should include relocation and better services to help them find jobs.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We don't go that route and we probably won't ever go that route because a serious language barrier results. I don't know how to resolve that when you need to understand instructions on a job site for the health and safety of everyone involved. There have been fatalities of workers from foreign countries in Alberta and I think part of the problem is health and safety in terms of how well they can understand English. For our company, we don't have the funds or the budget to train people in the English language.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“I'll be looking for temporary foreign workers from England, Poland, Denmark, Germany, and elsewhere in Europe.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

RECRUITMENT METHODSWord of mouth/employee referrals and walk-ins/unsolicited resumes were the most commonly used recruitment methods in Q2 2013.

Overall, the most commonly used recruitment method for employers surveyed in Q2 2013 was word of mouth/employee referrals, followed by walk-ins/unsolicited resumes, the internet (career and classified websites), company website/internal postings, and employment agencies. About one-third of the employers said they use social media such as Face Book, Twitter, and LinkedIn as a resource, up slightly from 27 per cent of the employers in Q2 2012. In addition, approximately half of the employers reported they use employment agencies, up from 36 per cent of the employers in 2012.

In Q2 2012, the top recruitment methods were word of mouth/employee referrals (90%), company website/internal postings (75%), internet (70%) and walk-ins/unsolicited resumes (63%).

Comments

“Signs outside of the restaurant on the main street is our best resource. At our location, we use a recruitment manager as well.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“To actually get resumes, I physically go to the job resource centre and announce that I'm accepting applications. This has proved to be a very effective strategy.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Lately, we have been posting on Kijiji mostly.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

5%!

5%!

5%!

15%!

20%!

25%!

25%!

29%!33%!

34%!

43%!

49%!

73%!

82%!

85%!

94%!

0%! 20%! 40%! 60%! 80%! 100%!

Radio!Magazines!

High schools!Out of province/out of country resources!

Signage!Technical/trade Institutes!

Job fairs!Newspapers!

College/Universities!Social media!

Industry associations!Employment agencies!

Company websiteiInternal postings!Internet (career and classified websites)!

Walk-ins/unsolicited resumes!Word of mouth/employees referrals!



“We use Craig's list and Kijiji depending on the position and only if other avenues aren't working to fill a position. We recruit at post-secondary schools for our entry level positions. We have tried recruiting at the University of Calgary in the past with no success.” - Construction

“I haven't used newspapers in 5 years.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“My hiring is all word of mouth, so I have not advertised for about 25 years.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We've tried lots of different things. We have not had really good success with employment agencies. Two years ago and last year we tried recruiting at high schools, but it wasn’t successful so we didn't do it this year. We've even gone overseas for temporary foreign worker job fairs. I've posted in the Calgary Herald for 10 years now.” - Manufacturing

“No newspapers anymore, it's all about the Internet now. Kijiji is most effective for us. We’ve tried recruiting at universities, but that didn't work.” - Manufacturing

“These days, walk-ins are rare. It's all about the Internet now. We rely heavily on our own website, a free one (Job Bank) and one we pay for (Calgary job shop).” - Manufacturing

“We don't use newspapers very often anymore or receive walk-ins very much. For our shop guys, Job Bank has been most successful. For our professionals, LinkedIn has worked well. We need an organizational website, but don't have one. We don't recruit that often at schools, but we do find millwrights what way. We don't attend job fairs per se, but we do attend quite a few trade shows.” - Manufacturing

“We haven't used social media yet. We rely a lot on industry associations.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We use walk-ins, our company website and employment agencies occasionally. We mainly use industry associations.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We rely primarily on Indeed and APEGGA. We just started using social media. We use Twitter and I guess you could say we use Facebook too.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We went to job fairs at high schools a number of years ago, but found that it really was a waste of time. The kids didn't know what they were looking at and the company didn't have a lot of success finding people. It really was a meaningless experience all around. We have an ongoing association with Mount Royal University from their Interior Design department, and we take trainees twice year and hire out of that program. We have an ongoing association with the Alberta College of Art, and we hire a lot of graduates from there. We have scholarships at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology, and some welders and carpenters end up going there throughout their working time here.” - Other

“For recruiting, we use headhunters mainly.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“We have had a really good response on Kijiji. We actually get a lot of guys through word of mouth or employee referral. We will put up a banner on the fence here when we're looking for workers.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“Kijiji is the best site for recruiting and I've had the most luck with it.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“The Youth Employment Centre job fair is our main driver for finding seasonal summer workers. We've also used the Mount Royal University operations program for finding administrative staff.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade



RECRUITING DIFFICULTIESForty-eight per cent of the employers surveyed In Q2 2013 reported having difficulty recruiting qualified employees.

Employers were asked questions regarding past and future recruiting difficulties. Specifically, they were asked if they had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months prior to their survey, and if they anticipated having more, less or the same amount of difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the following 12 months.

Overall, 48 per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 reported they had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months prior to their survey, down slightly from 51 per cent in Q2 2012. Seventy per cent of the wholesale and retail trade employers and 65 per cent of the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment employers surveyed in Q2 2013 had difficulty recruiting, compared to only 30 per cent of the health care and social assistance and ‘other’ employers.

Comments

“Kitchen positions and getting people to work until 2 AM is always an issue.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We have problems recruiting servers. Servers are very, very tough to find. That job doesn't pay well either, so it's very hard to keep them.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Heavy equipment operators and truck drivers are harder to recruit.” - Construction

“There are one or two positions that are tough. Anything in tax is hard.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“Absolutely, and hiring is getting tougher.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“Last summer was horrendous, but leading into Christmas things got better.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“Difficulty recruiting? Absolutely none.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“It's actually getting worse for us with respect to hiring.” - Manufacturing

“The technical positions are difficult to fill.” - Manufacturing

“I'd say assembly, material handling and welding are harder positions for us to fill.” - Manufacturing

“Hiring engineers is specifically where our difficulties lie.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We have had some difficulties, but for senior positions only.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

Difficulty RecruitingPercentage of companies that had difficulty recruiting in the 12 months prior to their survey





“Hiring is always a challenge because for some of the positions there is a limited pool. In this industry, it seems we poach employees from one another. We’ve managed though.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We had difficulties filling the sales positions. They are always a challenge.” - Other

“It is very difficult to find qualified employees, so we have to train them ourselves.” - Other

“It’s very difficult to find qualified non-destructive testing personnel.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“Definitely the application consultant roles are harder to fill. They require a higher level of experience.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“People with a high skill set are always hard to find.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“We’ve pretty much had ongoing difficulty with these architect and IT positions because they're so hard to fill. Our recruitment cycle is long and includes screening, technician tests, an interview and a 4 hour test. Most people don't make it through. We're looking for the best only.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“The fork lift operators is the main group we hire and it has been a little bit challenging.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“It can be difficult to find heavy duty technicians.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“Finding drivers can be very, very challenging.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“In some areas it can be difficult, particularly with skilled trades.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We have no problem finding qualified people. If you're physically fit and able to lift 50 pounds, you're in.” - Transportation & Warehousing

Ten per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate they will have more difficulty recruiting qualified employees over the next 12 months.

Sixteen per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate they will have more difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months following their survey and 6 per cent anticipate they will have less difficulty, for a balance of 10 per cent.315 In Q2 2012, 14 per cent of the employers on balance anticipated they would have more difficulty recruiting employees.

In Q2 2013, 20 per cent of the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment employers anticipate they will have more difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the next 12 months. This is down slightly from the previous year’s results when one-quarter of the employers in this industry anticipated they would have more difficulty. On balance, employers in the

14%!

10%!

0%!

5%!

10%!

15%!

20%!

Q2 2012! Q2 2013!Q2 2013: More: 16% Less: 6% Same/Unsure: 78%!Q2 2012: More: 21% Less: 7% Same/Unsure: 72%!

Future Recruiting Difficulties: Balance of Opinion !Do you anticipate having more, less or the same amount of

difficulty recruiting qualified employees !in the next 12 months?"

Overall Results!



315 Percentage of employers that anticipate having more difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months following their survey minus the percentage of employers that anticipate having less difficulty.

professional, scientific and technical services industry anticipate they will have about the same amount of difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the next 12 months, as their balance of opinion was neutral.Future Recruiting DifficultiesPercentage of companies that anticipated having more or less difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months following their survey

More Less Balance More Less BalanceOverall Results 21% 7% 14% 16% 6% 10%


Q2 2012 Q2 2013

Comments

“We will have more difficulty because there are more hotels opening in Calgary.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Things will be more or less the same. For 6 years, it has never changed.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We see the same recruiting issues year after year. The kids are in and out, and we have no problem finding more to replace those who quit. Our older full time employees tend to stay.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We will have more difficulty just because I think there will be a lot of competition with oil and gas sector, which will make it hard for us to find skilled labour.” - Construction

“We look for estimators in Alberta that have 5-10 years of experience. Individuals often don't have those qualifications in Canada.” - Construction

“I haven't had any difficulties at this point. We in house train our staff. We are looking for core competencies and then we train and mentor from there.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“It just seems to be the trend that recruiting is increasingly difficult, particularly in senior claims and commercial underwriting. We are getting less and less qualified applicants in those areas.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“I expect more difficulty recruiting because of the floods.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“There’s really just a shrinking pool of qualified individuals in the insurance market, so much so that in the last couple of years we've actually started sponsoring people coming over from the UK. They come from the insurance industry there, specifically within our parent company mostly. In the last 3 years in Calgary alone, we've had 3 temporary foreign workers we've sponsored and hopefully they will get their landed immigrant status and stay with us in Canada.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing



“I don’t anticipate any difficulty. Right now, I've got 3 people here that I'm calling and interviewing for these open positions. Across my desk, I have 4-5 people a month applying and looking for work. Out of those, I maybe hire 1 or 2.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“I see things staying the same. Especially at our facility, we have a lot of long-term employees. Myself, I have been here over 10 years. One of our nurses has been here for 25-30 years. When people work here, they stay.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“Recruiting will get more difficult because there is a shortage of employees. Engineers are hard to hire.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We expect less difficulty hiring because we're an up and coming company. There are lots of people that want to work here.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“Things will remain the same. Because we do a lot of work for the entertainment industry, we don't have trouble finding people. They think what we do is fun.” - Other

“Looking forward, it’s going to be harder. We have very high level positions opening up because of retirements that will be hard to recruit for.” - Other

“It will get more difficult. People get paid more in the oil business and some people just don't want to work in this industry anymore. They're not interested in getting their hands dirty in farming.” - Other

“Hiring will be equally difficult going forward. What I find to be a serious problem is that, for example, large construction companies have their busy time in the summer and they layoff drivers in the fall. Those people go on Employment Insurance for the winter, and they would rather collect their EI than come work for us for the winter. These people are only working in the summer, but they could be working for us in the winter because that is when we need drivers. I'd say that literally half of our potential work force is on EI. The EI program needs to be revamped because there are boatloads of jobs available. I'm not sure how much EI actually encourages people to go out and find a job. We’ve attempted to work with large companies to get their layoff summer workers for the winter, but that strategy hasn't been too successful because they don't control what their workers do after their layoffs.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We have some retirees and the oilsands will pick up in summer, so I anticipate having more difficulty hiring. We have more work and less people wanting to do it. It's difficult to attract and retain people in an aging industry as far as careers go and they will spend a lot of time away from home. Yet, Canada is a big country where everything gets moved on a truck because railways can't our support population and we don’t have national waterways for freight.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“I have noticed a lot of new job listings appearing on the third party websites we use. Ours are being bumped down to make room for construction and renovation postings in Calgary because they need so much help to deal with the floods. Tons of companies are looking for people to help with construction and renovation after the floods, so we move down the list. I anticipate it will be harder to find people in Calgary going forward, as the job boards we rely on for recruiting push our ads back.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade



EMPLOYEE TURNOVER AND TURNOVER RATESSeventy-two per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 reported employees had voluntarily left their company in the prior year.

Overall, 72 per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 reported employees had left their company in the 12 months prior to their survey as a result of voluntary turnover316, up slightly from 70 per cent in Q2 2012.

In Q2 2013, 85 per cent of the employers in the wholesale and retail trade industry said employees had voluntarily left their company in the prior year, down from 90 per cent when surveyed in Q2 2012. Sixty per cent of the employers in the health care and social assistance industry reported voluntary employee turnover, down from 65 per cent year-over-year.

Overall, the turnover rate was 10 per cent for companies surveyed in Q2 2013.

The employers surveyed in Q2 2013 reported approximately 1,340 employees left their companies in the 12 months prior to their survey as a result of voluntary turnover. This equates to a turnover rate of 10 per cent. In Q2 2012, employers reported a total of 1,315 employees left their companies in the 12 months prior to their survey, resulting in a turnover rate of 9 per cent. In Q2 2013, the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment industry had the highest turnover rates on average at 23 per cent, down from 34 per cent the previous year. The manufacturing, finance, insurance, real estate and leasing and ‘other’ industries had the lowest voluntary turnover rates in Q2 2013, at around 5 per cent.

Comments

“I would estimate that we lose 10 employees per year. However, many housekeepers have been here since we opened in 1999.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We typically lose about 20 employees per year.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

Employee TurnoverPercentage of companies with voluntary employee turnover in the 12 months prior to their survey



Employee TurnoverTurnover rates of companies (total turnover divided by total employees)in the 12 months prior to their survey





316 Initiated by the employee.

“We have lost about a hundred people, which is a 200% turnover rate.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“From beginning of the year to now, we have lost 8 people voluntarily. Our annualized rate of voluntary turnover is 21.5%. Also, in that time period since January, we have had 4 involuntary terminations.” - Construction

“We have about 13% total turnover, and that includes both voluntary and involuntary turnover. We have about 5% voluntary turnover.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“The last person who left was last June and she retired. No one has handed in voluntary resignations in the past year or for next year either.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We lost 20 people to voluntary turnover, but that number is tied up in our work stoppage. About 20 people chose to accept a payout or to resign when the labour dispute was resolved. Normally, turnover is extremely, extremely rare here.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We have had maybe 25 resignations in the past year.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“Yes, many, many have left. 29 people in fact.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We don't have high turnovers at all, except for our drivers. Our voluntary turnover in the shop is very limited. We have a 30-33% turnover rate overall, which is pretty standard for the industry.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We lose 6 employees per month on average.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

On balance, 15 per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate employee turnover will be lower over the next year.

Three per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate voluntary turnover will be higher in the 12 months following their survey and 18 per cent anticipate it will be lower, for a balance of -15 per cent.317 In Q2 2012, 2 per cent of the employers on balance anticipated turnover would be lower in the year following their survey.

In Q2 2013, 30 per cent of the employers in the mining and oil and gas industry and 25 per cent of the employers in the transportation and warehousing and health care and social assistance industries on balance anticipate employee turnover in their organizations will be lower in the next 12 months. Employers in the manufacturing and accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment industries anticipate that turnover will be about the same in the next 12 months, as their balance of opinion was neutral.

The remaining industries anticipate turnover will be lower on balance.

-2%!

-15%!-18%!

-15%!

-12%!

-9%!

-6%!

-3%!

0%!

Q2 2012! Q2 2013!Q2 2013: Higher: 3% Lower: 18% Same/Unsure: 79%!Q2 2012: Higher: 10% Lower: 12% Same/Unsure: 78% !

Future Turnover: Balance of Opinion !Do you anticipate employee turnover will be higher, lower

or the same in the next 12 months?!Overall Results!



317 Percentage of employers that anticipated voluntary turnover would be higher in the 12 months following their survey minus the percentage of employers that anticipated voluntary turnover would be lower.

Future TurnoverPercentage of companies that anticipated employee turnover would be higher or lower in the 12 months following their survey

Higher Lower Balance Higher Lower BalanceOverall Results 10% 12% -2% 3% 18% -15%

Results by IndustryMining & Oil & Gas 10% 25% -15% 0% 30% -30%Construction 0% 5% -5% 5% 20% -15%Manufacturing 23% 0% 23% 5% 5% 0%Wholesale & Retail Trade 14% 5% 9% 0% 20% -20%Transportation & Warehousing 5% 15% -10% 0% 25% -25%Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 14% 32% -18% 0% 15% -15%Health Care & Social Assistance 5% 15% -10% 0% 25% -25%Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 20% 15% 5% 10% 10% 0%Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 0% 9% -9% 5% 15% -10%Other 5% 0% 5% 5% 10% -5%

Q2 2012 Q2 2013

Comments

“I expect lower turnover. With our renovation, it will be more attractive to work here.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“The hotel industry is pretty tough right now. We're doing everything we can to retain our staff. Our turnover last year was 120%, so we're doing a bit better. This is a normal turnover rate for the industry though and we're dealing with a really competitive job market. People are leaving for us for $1/hour more or because a new hotel opens up closer to their home.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Based on the staff that we have here now, I expect a lower turnover. They all like it here.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We have a very high retention rate and I anticipate this will stay the same.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“I anticipate our turnover will be the same as it was in years prior to our labour dispute, so I expect to be losing 3 or 4 people per year.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“Possibly higher because of staff integration issues. People have to get used to our new company coming in if we expand.” - Manufacturing

“I expect it to be lower than last year because some of our past turnover had to do with some changes at the management level. I don't expect we'll see those this year.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“I expect turnover to be higher because people want to get a better paying job. In our industry, we can't afford to offer higher wages because we're competing with larger companies out of the East who can afford to make profits in the East and dump them in the West.” - Other

“Maybe a bit lower, the 10% turnover we had last year is high in our opinion.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“There was a disgruntled group working here, but they're gone so next year it should be lower.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

“I don't foresee anything too drastic that would change things. Sometimes turnover goes up when acquire new locations though.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade



RETENTIONA positive work environment and competitive salary were the most commonly used retention strategies in Q2 2013.

Employers were asked questions regarding current and future employee retention activities. Specifically, they were asked what strategies are their companies using to retain employees, and do they anticipate their company will be focusing more, less or the same on employee retention in the 12 months following their survey.

Overall, the most commonly used retention strategy for employers surveyed in Q2 2013 is a positive work environment, followed by competitive salary and interesting/challenging work. Results were slightly different for companies surveyed in Q2 2012, with a positive work environment mentioned by 96 per cent of the employers, followed by competitive salary (89%) and learning/growth opportunities (88%).

Comments

“Our biggest challenge with retention is that we offer very little room for advancement. People stay in the top positions and therefore others can't advance. However, because we're very small, we can meet three days a week to discuss things with our staff. We offer staff rates at all our other hotels.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“The company itself owns and operates 24 hotels across Canada. The employee satisfaction at my hotel is the highest in the company. We could work on our learning and growth opportunities, but the work/life balance is very important to us here. Our perks operate on a need basis. For example, last week was very busy so I gave the housekeeping staff gift cards to Superstore and I am taking our management team to the rodeo next week.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Learning and growth opportunities are not a huge factor here.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Our management is marginal to okay. We have no benefits for our seasonal staff. Our learning and growth opportunities are limited. We have moderate communication. Our perk is that we have a fun working environment.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Our work is the same as always. We don't really have flexible work because they’re at work everyday if it's not raining.” - Construction

50%!

51%!

59%!

65%!

75%!

81%!

82%!

84%!

85%!

86%!

89%!

90%!

96%!

0%! 20%! 40%! 60%! 80%! 100%!

Perks!

Cash Bonuses!

Reward and recognition programs!

Flexible work measures!

Excellent communication!

Work/life balance!

Learning/Growth Opportunities!

Competitive Benefits Package!

Excellent management/supervision!

Social Events!

Interesting/challenging work!

Competitive Salary!

Postive Work Environment!



“We are flexible depending on the weather and will accommodate our staff to work in the shade for example. We have performance bonuses once a year. We try to communicate, but it doesn't always work. Between our foremen and office staff there's excellent communication, but between field staff and office staff there's a disconnect. We have four luncheons/BBQs a year. We use those as information sessions to answer staff questions about payroll, benefits, etc.” - Construction

“Instead of saying we have a competitive salary, I would say that we have competitive rates because they're independent contractors. There are no formal cash bonuses or benefits, but the earning potential is there if the independent contractor chooses because we are a fee for service business. We offer staff coaching and training, as well as free breakfasts because free food is always a good draw with realtors.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“I offer competitive salaries and benefits to my permanent staff. The salespeople work on commission, so if not then they only need to look in the mirror to see why. We have limited learning and growth opportunities, but there are some because we have 3 positions. I give staff bonuses at the end of every fiscal year.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We focus a lot on our culture and we think that's our best tool for retaining employees.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We offer part time pay and move benefits because many of our employees are quite transient, but only full time staff receive good benefits. We encourage people to take on more than one client family and therefore to have more hours with us. We fall down a bit in terms of management and communication. Our big perk is that we do really rewarding work and offer employees experience in the fields they are studying in, including hands on experience working with children and families for psychology, social work and the like.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We offer no benefits because they’re all part time employees and some are only working a couple afternoons a week. They have all the flexibility to accommodate their holidays. It's worked well for 30 years, so I don't plan on changing that. Many are balancing family life, so I tell them their family comes first and there aren't a lot of jobs they'll find where that happens. For example, if their child is sick I simply give them the day off.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We offer some training for technologists, we sponsor and promote medical programs in other parts of the world and we fund charities.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“The type of mental health and long term care work that we do shapes our retention practices. We have an owner/operator and are privately owned, so our wages aren't that competitive. However, there's a lot of flexibility and incentives offered here. We have extended vacation time, a really flexible work environment, BBQs and staff functions. We have a very good recognition committee that puts together birthday cards, milestone birthdays, baby showers and stuff like that for staff. We celebrate staff seniority. For example, at 25 years we give a watch and throw a big party. We have the ‘orchid program’ where employees can recognize their co-workers with formal written good jobs and we also encourage residents to formalize their compliments to staff on paper.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We offer a different business model. Many of our competitors are unionized and so will pay more, offer strict schedules and have a variety of different clients. We can't compete with that. What we do offer is 1-2 clients per staff member, which is a much more manageable, comfortable way to work.” - Health Care & Social Assistance



“The challenge in a fresh production bakery environment is the hours because the hours aren't great. We need to be operating nights and weekends, and it’s very warm in the factory during the summer. We lose flexibility due to short delivery timelines and undesirable hours. The nature of the beast is that it's physical, monotonous work. We do offer a lot of opportunity to advance and make more money as employees learn the equipment. We offer our staff discounts for purchases of anything we produce, including a deli discount. We're a family business so the owners are here, and I see that as a form of retention to have management on site.” - Manufacturing

“We've tried social events, but we had very poor attendance and didn't find that this worked for us. We started offering all employees a Christmas bonus instead.” - Manufacturing

“Our communication could be better. Young people these days don't seem interested in a benefits package, but we do offer a competitive one. We generally just try to provide a good working environment. As a perk, we provide free lunches once a month.” - Manufacturing

“We offer as much flexibility as we can, including accommodating the schedules of single mothers and parents in general. We also offer an incentive program, RRSPs after 6 months, golf tournaments, baseball, BBQs, a yearly President's Award and Apprentice plaque awards.” - Manufacturing

“We are 8:00 AM-4:30 PM, Monday-Friday office, so we’re only flexible pretty much within that time frame.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“Communication can always be improved upon. That's one area that we consistently hear needs improvement from people who are leaving the company. Our long term incentive program and stock options are popular.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“Our main perks are our long term and short term incentive plans and we close early on Fridays for summertime.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We advertise that we have a competitive salary, so I'm obligated to say yes. We have staff BBQs and lunches and we laugh a lot, so our work environment is very positive.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“The fact that we have interesting and challenging work is reflective of the quality of people that we do have here. Our learning and growth opportunities are not in terms of technology, but in terms of art and processing. We have some of the finest people working in the theatre business in the world. We are so flexible that it's crazy. We allow people to step out on their own at their own shows and come back to work for us after. In terms of cash bonuses, we do have them when business is good but it's been a tough 3 years for the company. We have social events, but those have been cut back on due to money.” - Other

“We have limited learning and growth opportunities because we are privately owned and very horizontal. There is flexible work for certain positions. To retain staff, we also have a gym facility and an employee lounge with a television, Xbox, pinball machine, foosball machine and reading room.” - Other



“Our work is very labour intensive and involves heavy lifting, so people can get bored of this repetitive work. We do all sorts of things that employers need to do to keep staff, but there is no appreciation because at the end of the day they're looking for more money and to do less hard work. We have employees who've been with us for 20-30 years who are our core employees. About 70% of our staff has been here 3-4 years or longer, so the problem lies with the other 30% that we have turnover with. We have house-to-house bus pick up in morning and daily staff lunches as well.” - Other

“We have a very technically interesting workplace and are research oriented. We do lab work, so people must be on site. We work generally 9 AM-5 PM Monday-Friday, with only a small variation in hours and days off. There is a very short distance between upper management and floor people. We work collectively and as a group. We have annual profit sharing and a share ownership program.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“We survey our employees every year. It's important for us to make sure our staff is well paid according to their positions, background and expertise. We have a flat organization, so there aren't many positions to advance to (employee, team leader, management and chief executives). We have a very desirable and popular flex hour system, where employees can bank their hours and then take time off. We have a monthly budget for team building, with money for staff to go to lunch, supper, movies or golfing together.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“Cash bonuses go to senior management only. We have informal rewards and recognition. We have a robust career development program, including offering staff specific project work to improve their skills, internal training and free professional development courses. We have at least one staff event monthly. For example, that could be get togethers at work, going out for dinner, a Stampede BBQ or other special activities.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“In 25 years, we've never missed a payroll. Not only do we provide a competitive salary for our subcontractors and owner/operators, we also provide very reliable income. We do have a great work/life balance for the trucking industry, as our drivers are home every night and not on the road for 3 months at a time like with other employers.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“I would say our work is pretty routine. We are involved in intermodal freight and often it's the same customers. We are pretty flexible, some guys want to work only 4 or 5 days a week and we work around their schedule and ours. We have an open door policy for issues, and I talk a lot one-on-one with guys in the yard and office. We have many perks, including quarterly breakfast meetings, fuel cards and a progressive training program where we pay for our staff to attend PDI defensive driving courses every 2 years.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“No, we don't balance work and family.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“Our most popular perks are the group retirement program, employee assistance program and cash awards.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We recently conducted a company wide engagement survey. We received a 67% response rate and have identified 3 main areas to improve as well.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We recently instituted a commuting allowance to help cover the cost of fuel for employees driving longer distances.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade



Thirty-eight per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate they will be focusing more on employee retention over the next year.

Overall, 38 per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 anticipate they will be focusing more on employee retention in the 12 months following their survey, up slightly from 35 per cent in Q2 2012.

In Q2 2013, 50 per cent or more of the employers in the mining and oil and gas and manufacturing industries anticipate they will be focusing more on retention in the next year, both up from the 2012 results. In contrast, only 25 per cent of the transportation and warehousing and ‘other’ employers plan to focus more on employee retention in the next 12 months.

Future RetentionPercentage of companies that anticipated they would be focusing more or less on employee retentionin the 12 months following their survey

More Less Balance More Less BalanceOverall Results 35% 0% 35% 39% 1% 38%


Q2 2012 Q2 2013

Comments

“I've been in the hotel industry for the past 18 years. We've been dealing with the challenge of high turnover for the last 5 years, as well as the challenge of finding quality people who want a career in the hotel industry. All of our management seems to be retiring and the lack of experience we see from applicants makes it is a real challenge to fill those positions. We're getting people looking for a middle, temporary job as opposed to a full time, permanent career.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We'll be implementing internal training and leadership programs.” - Construction

“We will be having more conversations to determine what people are looking for in terms of retention.” - Construction

“We will be implementing an employee management program, a reward and recognition program and a new benefits package.” - Construction

“We will be focusing more on retention. A lot of our focus will be on retraining and education.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

35%! 38%!

0%!

10%!

20%!

30%!

40%!

Q2 2012! Q2 2013!Q2 2013: More: 39% Less: 1% Same/Unsure: 60%!Q2 2012: More: 35% Less: 0% Same/Unsure: 65%!

Future Retention: Balance of Opinion !Do you anticipate your company will be focusing more,

less, or the same on employee retention !in the next 12 months?!

Overall Results!



“We are working on our communication and management skills to create a better work environment. Hopefully, we will be able to provide more professional development opportunities as well.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We are certainly trying to create a more positive work environment and more transparency. We are looking at ways to have employees have more input and more participation in decisions about their work life.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We are undergoing salary reviews and potentially looking at flexible hour programs.” - Manufacturing

“We do an employee survey 3 times a year and that’s where we get ideas. We have a new stated goal to become more engaged in education for our employees. We will keep salaries competitive.” - Manufacturing

“We are trying to get the culture to improve and make it appealing to everyone so that they're comfortable here. We need better safety and due diligence on the company's part.” - Manufacturing

“We will be looking at a reward and recognition program.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“Adding a recognition program is at the top of the list for new retention strategies, as well as evaluating compensation again.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“I think part of retention will be providing opportunity for share ownership and long term incentive plans. So in this way, if company is successful then the employees will be personally successful as well.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We are looking at employee education, adding a corporate initiative program, instituting an employee assistance program, developing a wellness program, improving employee awareness of programs and benefits and working on increasing our safety program even though there is already a high focus on that.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We will be looking at career path planning, possibly incentive for work programs, an improved health and safety program and lean manufacturing implementation.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“Communication is our main focus with respect to retention because there's room for improvement there.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We will be focusing less on retention. The reason why I say less is because we're moving forward. Once our corporate mentality changes to finding quality people over temporary people, the focus on retention will also shift. It will reduce for positive reasons such as efficiency.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We came up with a very unique year end bonus program and are instituting more social events such as a golf tournament, paint ball and exercise.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

“We are definitely working on our management and communication.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade



SUPPLEMENTAL QUESTION – FOCUS ON YOUTHNinety per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 reported their company currently employs youth.

Ninety per cent of the employers surveyed in Q2 2013 (180 employers) said their company currently employs youth (those under 25 years of age).

In addition, 161 of those employers were able to provide an estimate of the number of youth their company employs. Overall, 161 companies estimate they employ approximately 1,772 youth, which equates to 16 per cent of the total employees. The accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment industry has the highest percentage of youth in their total workforce by far, at 44 per cent. In contrast, the mining and oil and gas, manufacturing and health care and social assistance industries have the lowest percentage of youth at under 10 per cent.

Comments

“Almost all of our employees are under 25. I would say about 95% are youth.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“I would say youth are 85-95% of our total staff.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“The majority of our staff are under 25.” - Construction

“We try to recruit young people, but it’s not always easy.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“At least 25-30% of our staff are youth.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We can't have people under 18 working in this hospice environment. They actually have to be 18 or older to work here. We have 6 employees under 25 right now. All but one of those 6 young people did their practicum here, the other had a parent working here and then became interested in working here.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“We have a group of about 6-7 summer university students helping right now, otherwise we'd be in desperate measures.” - Manufacturing

“We have 3 still under 25 that we hired a few years ago. I would say that our average age for employees is around 35.” - Manufacturing

“We have 2 employees under 25 in all of Alberta.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“We have an active summer student program.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“The number of youth that we would employ would be low, but we do hire right out of university.” - Other

Youth Employment

Industry # of Employers

Total Employees

Total Youth Employed % Youth

Mining & Oil & Gas 16 1,167 89 8%Construction 19 1,362 179 13%Manufacturing 18 1,212 90 7%Wholesale & Retail Trade 14 997 165 17%Transportation & Warehousing 10 633 68 11%Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 16 1,191 150 13%Health Care & Social Assistance 17 1,196 102 9%Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 20 1,344 592 44%Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 16 1,138 121 11%Other 15 1,109 216 19%Total 161 11,349 1,772 16%



“I'd say 30% of our workforce is under 25.” - Other

“A good portion of our part time staff is under 25.” - Other

“Only a small percentage of our staff would fall into that age group. Perhaps 10% of our staff is under 25.” -Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“In Calgary, no. Elsewhere in the company, we do employ people under 25.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“I can't hire people under 25 for trucking positions. The Government of Alberta’s graduated licensing program restricts me from doing this because by the time they've got full licenses they're usually over 25.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“About half of my staff is under 25.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We have a young workforce in Calgary. The average age in Calgary is 29 in the office and shop and the average driving age in the company is 38.” - Transportation & Warehousing

Twenty per cent of the employers indicated that the biggest challenge their company faces in terms of employing youth is they don’t stay with the company for very long.

The number one challenge employers face in terms of employing youth is they don’t stay with the company for very long, indicated by 20 per cent of the employers. Twelve per cent of the employers said youth workers did not have enough experience, while another 7 per cent each said it was challenging accommodating youth schedules and the need for flexible hours or work arrangements and youth are not interested in working in their particular industry, company or location. Thirteen per cent or 26 employers said they did not have any challenges employing youth.

Youth Employment Challenges

# 1 Challenge employing youth# of

Employers% of

EmployersDon't stay with the company for very long (retention) 40 20%Not enough experience 24 12%Accommodating schedule/need for flexible hours or work arrangements 14 7%Not interested in working in the industry/company/location (attraction) 13 7%Unrealistic wage expectations 12 6%Poor work ethic/attitude 11 6%Don’t show up for work (attendance) 9 5%Don’t have the right skills 8 4%It takes a lot of time and resources to train youth 8 4%Don’t have the right education 7 4%Challenges working with older employees (generation gap) 5 3%Unreliable/not responsible/immature 5 3%We don’t have any entry level positions 4 2%Safety 3 2%Keeping work interesting/motivating yourh 3 2%Unrealistic expectations re: promotions or career progression 3 2%Always on cell phone 1 1%Communicating with youth 1 1%Not interested in company perks/benefits 1 1%Age restriction on equipment (must be 25+) 1 1%Not able to make many sales 1 1%I don’t have any challenges 26 13%Total 200 100%



Comments

“Our biggest challenge is keeping young people motivated in their jobs. They're easily bored and will go elsewhere.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Our issue is just how much they're available to work and their work ethic in general. It’s especially difficult for us to hire those under 18 because they can only work until a certain time and we're open until 2 AM.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“I think the biggest challenge is the fact that they don't consider this a career. It's just for a job for them and they're in it for the money. They're not passionate about the hotel industry nor interested in pursuing a career within it.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Young people want vacation time. Because we’re a seasonal business and they're students, they’re a target market. However, they still want a vacation and those aren't available or popular here. If we're lucky we can hire a student from May-August, but our season runs from April-October. We like to hire students who will come back every year and who go to school in the city so they can work while in school. We also have a lot of retirees too because this is a great retirement job, with full time work in summer and an opportunity to go away in winter.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“They usually come in with a bad attitude and they can't read and write.” - Construction

“Safety and just their general attitude are big problems. Specifically with that, getting them to ask questions rather than going out not knowing what they're doing is a challenge.” - Construction

“That's actually the easiest group to recruit to be honest. The toughest challenge probably comes with finding youth workers who want exposure to the construction industry. A lot of them want desk jobs.” - Construction

“Our biggest challenge is that our work is very, very hard work. The youth don't want to get their hands dirty. We are very high paying, for bricklayers we start at $80,000/year and for labourers at nearly $50,000/year. We also have apprenticeship programs available to become a journeyman bricklayer. However, working outside in the weather is not many young people's cup of tea.” - Construction

“The challenge comes more from their perspective. Youth feel that people won't trust them in realty because of their age. I don't see that, but they do.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“It's just the type of applications that we get. We often get older people applying and we honestly don't get many young people applying. However, when we do there's not an issue.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“The perspective of youth is different than that of managers. They have a different perception of what is expected of them and what their managers would expect from them. Also, work/life balance has a much different meaning to and is a higher priority for younger people, even for those under 30. There needs to be some mutual respect between the baby boomer managers and the younger group. The risk is that young people understand technology more than managers. They are on their phones too much too.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing



“We don't really have any problems. We have a lot of students and young people pursuing their professional designations that come to work for us. They stay here for the support the firm provides for their professional designations.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“I think the biggest challenge, not just for us but for all of the industry, is that traditionally the insurance industry has not been very active in engaging youth. In the last year or two, this has begun to change. The Insurance Institute of Canada is trying to refocus on youth because we as an industry have an older generation. We need to attract and retain younger employees as the older employees retire.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“The challenge starts with getting them interested in our work.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“Everything has been great and I've had no challenges. I will take people straight out of university. One of my most reliable employees is under 25.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“Our biggest challenge is offering prospects for a long term career to young people. Of our younger staff, they are all people looking for more money and career progression. We have trouble providing that because we have only have two levels, our front line staff and our management. The limited opportunities for career progression occur because once someone gets into a management position, they stay with us until they retire. For that reason, positions in management don't open up very often for our front line staff.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“It's just the inexperience that can be a challenge, but then in some ways that can be a good thing too. I personally like having younger employees and our management team is younger When hiring young, you get people who aren't used to the professional work life, which can pose difficulties. On other hand, you are able to mold the type of employee you want. Especially with nursing, people can get set techniques and bad habits that don't work in continuing care. When I hire young, I find that everyone has awesome, new ideas that they want to share.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“Reliability and attitude are the challenges I see. I think that many of the younger employees don't seem to have same idea as older ones do; you have a job and a schedule and you need to show up according to that schedule.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“The speed at which they want to be promoted is completely unrealistic. It takes longer here than they would like.” - Manufacturing

“Well, I think the biggest challenge is to get them to come for interviews. We don't often get young folks applying, but a few do because their parents work here. Also, making them aware that there's jobs here for them is a challenge. I don't think they look in the newspaper for example. Maybe once they get into an apprenticeship program or trade they might look here. I don't know how young people these days find jobs to be honest.” - Manufacturing

“Their work ethic is poor. To have them show up, be on time, be ready for work, and feel that their job is an important part of their life is challenging. Sometimes kids will blow work off.” - Manufacturing

“The problem for us is our ability to supervise them with limited staff.” - Mining & Oil & Gas

“I don't regard hiring young people as any more of a challenge than employing anyone else. The reflection of a society includes a combination of youth and experience. We like to have new blood in here for two reasons: 1. Nothing is greater than the enthusiasm of youth. 2. For senior people who are supervising, they have to explain what they do and why and this reinforces their



understanding. The whole mentoring process is very important in the workplace and we can't do that without youth.” - Other

“The generation gap between our managers and supervisors, many of whom have been here for 20-30 years, creates a cultural difference. Youth certainly look for career advancement and, depending on their mobility, it's not necessarily an option in a few short years. They start working for you, and the next year they want to be the president of the company. Youth have high expectations and look for a work/life balance more than any other generation has. That's certainly a challenge.” - Other

“I think the biggest challenge would be their work ethic. We have no problem getting people with the right diplomas, education and skills, but we have a problem getting young people with good work ethic. Also, they want very high wages along with their less than desirable work ethic. The reality in the workplace is you have to work hard to produce things. They don't think they have to put in 10 years after their education to obtain high wages. I think that's a generational thing and a societal thing. Youth want instant gratification after getting a diploma. “ - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“We actually strive to hire new grads from diploma programs, so they typically fall into that category of under 25. They are a bit transitional and still exploring their employment options, so they are harder to retain.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“Insurance is our biggest challenge because most insurance companies require people to be at least 25 years old before they will provide us with coverage.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“The number of young people we can hire is very limited because they can't be a driver for insurance reasons until they are 25. We do have apprentice programs. We even have a first year mechanic who started right out of high school. It's a complicated thing for us not to be able to insure people under 25. However, we are open to young apprentices.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“For those who come to us through apprenticeship, the biggest challenge is retention. It's hard to keep them after they've become a 1-3 year level apprentice. The money in the oil field is a big draw for young people. That and they don't know what they want in a career. The generations coming up have expectations that they won't stay very long in the same job. For those 18-30 years old, 3-5 years at one company is a career to them. Young workers are transient by nature compared to other generations.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“They kind of act like they are doing us a favour by working for us. Young people often come with attitude.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

“Just keeping them engaged. In order to encourage retention of youth, we are currently upgrading to a more automated service. Young people love technology.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade

Almost half of the employers reported they use a variety of methods to specifically attract and retain youth workers.

Forty per cent or 79 employers said they use a variety of methods to specifically attract and retain youth workers. The most common methods used to attract youth workers include offering intern/apprentice/co-op training opportunities (31 employers), attending youth job fairs/recruitment events (22 employers) and offering summer student opportunities (21 employers).



Strategies Used to Attract Youth

The most common methods used to retain youth workers include providing mentorship (12 employers), providing flexible work measures (9 employers), providing benefits/perks specifically tailored to youth (6 employers) and providing learning/growth opportunities specifically tailored to youth (6 employers).

Strategies Used to Retain Youth

1!

2!

6!

7!

7!

8!

11!

11!

21!

22!

31!

0! 5! 10! 15! 20! 25! 30! 35!

Partner with Youth Employment Centre!

Brand company/product name at post-secondary institutions!

Scholarship/tuition programs!

Design/tailor positions specifically for youth!

Use social media/web to attract youth!

Presentations to students at schools/post-secondary institutions!

Encourage word of mouth/employee referrals to attract youth!

Partnerships with high schools/post-secondary institutions to develop entry-level job opportuntiies !

Offer summer student opportunities!

Attend youth job fairs/recruitment events!

Offer intern/apprentice/co-op training opportunities !

Number of Employers!

1!

2!

2!

3!

5!

6!

6!

9!

12!

0! 2! 4! 6! 8! 10! 12! 14!

Subsidized housing!

Cash bonuses!

Social events specifically tailored to youth!

Competitive wage!

Positive/fun work environment!

Learning/growth opportunities specifically tailored to youth!

Benefits/perks specifically tailored to youth!

Flexible work measures !

Mentorship!

Number of Employers!



Comments

“We have summer employment and STEP grant-based programs. Summer employment gives youth work experience.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Our internship program is a rotational program that allows youth to gain diverse and unique experience before they have to join the company permanently, with the option to join permanently upon graduation.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“Making the job sound fun goes a long way towards retaining youth.” - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

“We offer an extended employee orientation program where new hires can meet with senior managers and can pick their brains about the industry.” - Construction

“We offer them on the job training and an opportunity to prove themselves. We help them become licensed as insurance brokers, which involves 8-12 months of paid education and training while working. It's not like people say, ‘When I grow up, I want to be an insurance broker.’ We have to help people understand the attraction to the job.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We are focusing on expanding our co-op programs and working more closely with colleges and universities. This includes tuition and scholarship programs, as well as general awareness through campus recruitment, advertising and that sort of thing.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We are going to be moving towards a flexible benefit plan, which appeals more to youth. We also work much more virtually now.” - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

“We get summer students through the federal government's STEP program. Otherwise, we've already figured out our demographic where we get the most success. There's a range in there, but most of our employees are not under 25. They are mothers with kids old enough to go to school, so they’re in their late 20s or early 30s. Those people are the ones we are able to keep for 15-16 years and so we focus on attracting and retaining them.” - Health Care & Social Assistance

“My children are part of that age group, so they've recruited their friends. It wasn't planned that way, but it's been a bonus.” - Manufacturing

“We are very active on university campuses. We have 2 people whose jobs are 60% focused just on recruiting at universities.” - Manufacturing

“We offer summer student programs for high school students and word of mouth with current employees' children. Otherwise, we haven't recruited youth in our department anyway. Our corporate office does start programs for attracting youth, but get busy doing other things such as obtaining international contracts for the business and so they don't follow through with it.” - Manufacturing

“We actually create jobs to fit that age group.” - Manufacturing

“Our polls say that young people want a defined contribution and portable pension program, so we have adopted that for all new hires. We have a flex 4 program that allows for more days off and early days. Many young people want to be highly involved in their community and are interested in opportunities to volunteer, so we have really expanded those programs.” - Manufacturing



“We have a good stream of youth looking to come work here. We have an ongoing association with Mount Royal University from their interior design department where we find trainees twice a year and hire out of that program. We have an ongoing association with the Alberta College of Art where we hire a lot of graduates. We have scholarships at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology and we employ a number of welders, carpenters and other tradespeople from there.” - Other

“We have a specific campus recruitment program. We do interviews right on campus at social events.” - Other

“We spend some time branding our company at universities so that they remember our name down the road when they're looking for employment.” - Other

“We go to 8 post-secondary institutions to provide scholarship and bursary programs. Attending those post-secondary institutions to be involved in the bursary program and job fairs goes a long way.” - Other

“We participate in co-op programs in civil engineering and recruit actively at universities and colleges across Canada. However, we prefer not to hire youth outside of this program.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“We do look for people who've come right out of school at career fairs. We also attend career mixers and social events on the University of Calgary and University of Alberta campuses. The reason that we do is that many of the individuals we've retained had us as their first ‘real’ job and they tend to stay. Some of our staff who've been here 10-15 years came straight out of school and are still with us. Hiring new graduates is something we like and encourage.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“We try to have recognition of achievements very quickly and in front of co-workers. We don't budget for monetary gifts, but we do recognize their achievements as they happen. We are playing to the instant gratification nature of today's youth.” - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

“We don’t really even try to hire youth because they need truck driving experience and that's hard to find under 25. However, we do offer an apprenticeship payment program for recent high school graduates looking to become a shop/mechanic worker. We're working with the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology to get our formal apprenticeship programs going. They’re not running as of yet, and before I started we used only word of mouth and walk-ins. I'm changing this.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“We participate in the RAP program and have apprenticeships. We hire summer students. We started a novice driver program. We have bought two simulators for petroleum haulers that will enable us to hire more inexperienced people, including youth. The industry said we should hire people with 2 years of experience driving minimum. Now, with the simulator, we can take anyone with a class 1 license, even those without experience. We're industry leading in this simulator program.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“Our insurance company and most of our customers don't like it if we hire youth.” - Transportation & Warehousing

“That's not actually a target that I want to attract. It does happen, but because of the maturity levels required for most of our jobs we aren't looking at that age group.” - Wholesale & Retail Trade



Job Bank AnalysisService Canada’s Job Bank is the country’s largest bi-lingual online listing of job opportunities in Canada. Job seekers are able to view thousands of new job opportunities across Canada every day and access online tools such as Job Match, Job Alert, Resume Builder and Career Navigator free of charge. The site also has a training and careers section, which helps job seekers identify career options, as well as provides information on trends, employment prospects and salary ranges of occupations. Employers have access to a variety of HR management information resources and can advertise and manage their job postings online at their own convenience free of charge.

This section provides a summary of jobs posted to the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2013 for Calgary, the communities surrounding Calgary, and the Banff/Canmore region.

Calgary (city)For Calgary (city), there were 10,296 job postings318 on the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2013, advertising for a total of 26,576 positions. This was up from 22,862 positions the previous quarter and down from 32,509 positions year-over-year. Approximately two-thirds of the job postings were from companies located in South Calgary, while the remaining one-third of the job postings were from companies located in North Calgary.

Job Bank: Job Ad Postings by Quadrant for Q2 2013 Calgary (city)

North East!25%!

North West!11%!

South East!43%!

South West!21%!



318 Total job postings are all unduplicated postings appearing in the Job Bank each week. This figure includes postings from the previous weeks that have been reposted as well as new job postings.

Thirty-eight per cent (10,029 positions) were sales and service occupations, down from 11,533 positions in the second quarter of 2012. Thirty-two per cent (8,603 positions) were trades, transport and equipment operator occupations, down slightly from 8,971 positions year-over-year.

Job Bank: Number of Job Positions by Occupation for Q2 2012 and 2013 Calgary (city)

343 !

394 !

599 !

648 !

1,055 !

1,323 !

1,430 !

2,152 !

8,603 !

10,029 !

564 !

569 !

1,522 !

702 !

1,453 !

1,621 !

2,432 !

3,142 !

8,971 !

11,533 !

- ! 2,000 ! 4,000 ! 6,000 ! 8,000 ! 10,000 ! 12,000 !

Health Occupations!

Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation & Sport!

Occupations Unique to Primary Industry!

Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service & Religion!

Management Occupations!

Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing & Utilities!

Natural & Applied Sciences & Related Occupations!

Business, Finance & Administration Occupations!

Trades, Transport & Equipment Operators & Related Occupations!

Sales & Service Occupations!

2012! 2013!

The top five occupations advertised on the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2013 for Calgary (city) were food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations (2,173 positions), material handlers (1,161 positions), construction trades helpers and labourers (1,134 positions), truck drivers, (1,052 positions) and retail salespersons and sales clerks (1,022 positions). In comparison, the top five occupations in the second quarter of 2012 for Calgary were food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations (2,592 positions), cooks (1,546 positions), light duty cleaners (1,098 positions), truck drivers (1,089 positions) and construction trades helpers and labourers (1,069 positions).



Calgary (city) Positions - Q2 2013319

Occupation Positions

Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations 2,173 Material Handlers 1,161 Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers 1,134 Truck Drivers 1,052 Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks 1,022 Cooks 941 Light Duty Cleaners 776 Food Service Supervisors 763 Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks 651 Carpenters 572 Babysitters, Nannies and Parents' Helpers 481 Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Labourers 447 Food and Beverage Servers 415 Cashiers 382 Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 360 Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers and Lathers 347 Operators and Attendants in Amusement, Recreation and Sport 340 Grocery Clerks and Store Shelf Stockers 331 Motor Vehicle Body Repairers 328 Construction Managers 307 Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane) 295 Labourers in Food, Beverage and Tobacco Processing 295 Security Guards and Related Occupations 281 Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics 257 Other Elemental Sales Occupations 252 Delivery and Courier Service Drivers 230 Community and Social Service Workers 228 Automotive Service Technicians, Truck Mechanics and Mechanical Repairers 218 Restaurant and Food Service Managers 214 Landscape and Horticultural Technicians and Specialists 210 Concrete Finishers 210 Technical Sales Specialists - Wholesale Trade 192 Painters and Decorators 186 Residential and Commercial Installers and Servicers 186 Retail Trade Supervisors 184 Welders and Related Machine Operators 180 General Office Clerks 175 Shippers and Receivers 174 Retail Trade Managers 160 Sales Representatives - Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical) 157 Program Leaders and Instructors in Recreation and Sport 156 Construction Millwrights and Industrial Mechanics (Except Textile) 151 Janitors, Caretakers and Building Superintendents 149 Roofers and Shinglers 140 Sales, Marketing and Advertising Managers 133 Specialized Cleaners 133 Other Trades Helpers and Labourers 130 Early Childhood Educators and Assistants 128 Other Elemental Service Occupations 124 Plumbers 124 Ironworkers 120 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 111 Professional Occupations in Business Services to Management 110 Retail and Wholesale Buyers 110 Computer Programmers and Interactive Media Developers 100 Hotel Front Desk Clerks 96 Chefs 94 Administrative Officers 93 Automotive Mechanical Installers and Servicers 92 Other Metal Products Machine Operators 91 College and Other Vocational Instructors 89 Industrial Electricians 85



319 Only occupations with 85 or more positions are shown in the table.

Communities Surrounding CalgaryFor the communities surrounding Calgary, there were 2,101 job postings on the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2013, advertising for a total of 6,091 positions. This was up from 5,406 positions the previous quarter but down from 6,497 positions year-over-year. Thirty-eight per cent (2,324 positions) were trades, transport and equipment operator occupations, up slightly from 2,281 positions in the second quarter of 2012, and thirty-four per cent (2,042 positions) were sales and service occupations, down from 2,460 positions year-over-year.

Job Bank: Number of Job Positions by Occupation for Q2 2012 and 2013 Communities Surrounding Calgary

17 !

33 !

86 !

112 !

165 !

223 !

411 !

678 !

2,042 !

2,324 !

18 !

39 !

90 !

139 !

256 !

198 !

447 !

569 !

2,460 !

2,281 !

- ! 300 ! 600 ! 900 ! 1,200 ! 1,500 ! 1,800 ! 2,100 ! 2,400 !


Health Occupations!









2012! 2013!

The top five occupations advertised on the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2013 for the communities surrounding Calgary were food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations (651 positions), truck drivers (494 positions), construction trades helpers and labourers (314 positions), oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers (306 positions) and babysitters, nannies and parents’ helpers (243 positions). In comparison, the top five occupations advertised in the second quarter of 2012 for the communities surrounding Calgary were food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations (616 positions), babysitters, nannies and parents’ helpers (288 positions), ironworkers (272 positions), truck drivers (260 positions) and welders and related machine operators (256 positions).



Communities Surrounding Calgary Positions - Q2 2013320

NOC Code Occupation Positions

6641 Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations 6517411 Truck Drivers 4947611 Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers 3148615 Oil and Gas Drilling, Servicing and Related Labourers 3066474 Babysitters, Nannies and Parents' Helpers 2436421 Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks 2278612 Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Labourers 1866242 Cooks 1687271 Carpenters 1469617 Labourers in Food, Beverage and Tobacco Processing 1457452 Material Handlers 1416212 Food Service Supervisors 1247291 Roofers and Shinglers 1096661 Light Duty Cleaners 1057311 Construction Millwrights and Industrial Mechanics (Except Textile) 947244 Electrical Power Line and Cable Workers 938611 Harvesting Labourers 909619 Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 749462 Industrial Butchers and Meat Cutters, Poultry Preparers and Related Workers 707421 Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane) 657242 Industrial Electricians 647282 Concrete Finishers 644214 Early Childhood Educators and Assistants 637252 Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers 637441 Residential and Commercial Installers and Servicers 627265 Welders and Related Machine Operators 572171 Information Systems Analysts and Consultants 526453 Food and Beverage Servers 506611 Cashiers 506651 Security Guards and Related Occupations 507292 Glaziers 486465 Other Protective Service Occupations 479493 Other Wood Products Assemblers and Inspectors 442225 Landscape and Horticultural Technicians and Specialists 427312 Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics 420621 Retail Trade Managers 417294 Painters and Decorators 416216 Other Service Supervisors 407283 Tilesetters 406233 Retail and Wholesale Buyers 377264 Ironworkers 366215 Cleaning Supervisors 357241 Electricians (Except Industrial and Power System) 357443 Automotive Mechanical Installers and Servicers 358431 General Farm Workers 357321 Automotive Service Technicians, Truck Mechanics and Mechanical Repairers 330711 Construction Managers 321453 Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks 316211 Retail Trade Supervisors 287412 Bus Drivers and Subway and Other Transit Operators 267251 Plumbers 242243 Industrial Instrument Technicians and Mechanics 236662 Specialized Cleaners 237284 Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers and Lathers 232113 Geologists, Geochemists and Geophysicists 217351 Stationary Engineers and Auxiliary Equipment Operators 216411 Sales Representatives - Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical) 196681 Dry Cleaning and Laundry Occupations 187215 Contractors and Supervisors, Carpentry Trades 181475 Dispatchers and Radio Operators 166241 Chefs 168256 Supervisors, Landscape and Horticulture 166435 Hotel Front Desk Clerks 159614 Labourers in Wood, Pulp and Paper Processing 15




Banff/Canmore AreaFor the Banff/Canmore area, there were 827 job postings on the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2013, advertising for a total of 2,404 positions. This was up from 2,213 positions the previous quarter, and up from 1,710 positions in the second quarter of 2012. Sales and service occupations accounted for 88 per cent of the total positions in the first quarter of 2013.

Job Bank: Number of Positions by Occupation for Q2 2012 and 2013Banff/Canmore Area

3 !

4 !

10 !

14 !

19 !

34 !

59 !

62 !

116 !

2,083 !

16 !

0!

8 !

6 !

13 !

55 !

47 !

52 !

48 !

1,465 !

- ! 300 ! 600 ! 900 ! 1,200 ! 1,500 ! 1,800 ! 2,100 !





Health Occupations!






2012! 2013!

The top five occupations advertised on the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2013 for the Banff/Canmore area were food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations (464 positions), light duty cleaners (445 positions), food service supervisors (251 positions), cooks (197 positions) and hotel front desk clerks (140 positions). The top five occupations advertised on the Job Bank in the second quarter of 2012 for the Banff/Canmore area were light duty cleaners (302 positions), food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations (267 positions), cooks (156 positions), food service supervisors (118 positions) and food and beverage servers (105 positions).



Banff/Canmore Area Positions - Q2 2013321

NOC Code Occupation Positions

6641 Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations 4646661 Light Duty Cleaners 4456212 Food Service Supervisors 2516242 Cooks 1976435 Hotel Front Desk Clerks 1406421 Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks 1076453 Food and Beverage Servers 766241 Chefs 435254 Program Leaders and Instructors in Recreation and Sport 376441 Tour and Travel Guides 376611 Cashiers 366442 Outdoor Sport and Recreational Guides 327412 Bus Drivers and Subway and Other Transit Operators 256215 Cleaning Supervisors 236471 Visiting Homemakers, Housekeepers and Related Occupations 226622 Grocery Clerks and Store Shelf Stockers 227282 Concrete Finishers 225221 Photographers 206663 Janitors, Caretakers and Building Superintendents 206671 Operators and Attendants in Amusement, Recreation and Sport 203235 Other Technical Occupations in Therapy and Assessment 196681 Dry Cleaning and Laundry Occupations 196451 Maîtres d'hôtel and Hosts/Hostesses 187271 Carpenters 180632 Accommodation Service Managers 166482 Estheticians, Electrologists and Related Occupations 167284 Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers and Lathers 150631 Restaurant and Food Service Managers 128612 Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Labourers 120721 Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers 106672 Other Attendants in Accommodation and Travel 100621 Retail Trade Managers 91121 Specialists in Human Resources 96216 Other Service Supervisors 86211 Retail Trade Supervisors 76252 Bakers 76271 Hairstylists and Barbers 76411 Sales Representatives - Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical) 76483 Pet Groomers and Animal Care Workers 76682 Ironing, Pressing and Finishing Occupations 71414 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 66213 Executive Housekeepers 66434 Ticket Agents, Cargo Service Representatives and Related Clerks (Except Airline) 66452 Bartenders 67312 Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics 66651 Security Guards and Related Occupations 50611 Sales, Marketing and Advertising Managers 41454 Survey Interviewers and Statistical Clerks 47294 Painters and Decorators 47411 Truck Drivers 49619 Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 41221 Administrative Officers 34143 Educational Counsellors 34214 Early Childhood Educators and Assistants 36233 Retail and Wholesale Buyers 36474 Babysitters, Nannies and Parents' Helpers 37241 Electricians (Except Industrial and Power System) 3




Job ad data is available each week for the Job Bank.322 Since July 2009, job postings for Calgary and surrounding area varied from a low of 1,240 postings the week of January 5, 2010 to a high of 3,511 postings the week of September 27, 2011. Job postings for Banff/Canmore area varied from a low of 71 postings the week of December 1, 2009 to a high of 272 postings the week of August 31, 2011.

Number of Job Postings on the Job Bank per week

0!

50!

100!

150!

200!

250!

300!

0!

500!

1,000!

1,500!

2,000!

2,500!

3,000!

3,500!

4,000!

Jul 2

1 09!

Aug 31

09!

Sep 29

09!

Nov 3

09!

Dec 8

09!

Jan 1

2 10!

Feb 17

10!

Mar 23

10!

Apr 27

10!

Jun 1

10!

Jul 6

10!

Aug 17

10!

Sep 22

10!

Oct 26

10!

Dec 1

10!

Jan 1

2 11!

Feb 15

11!

Mar 31

11!

May 3

11!

Jun 8

11!

Jul 1

9 11!

Aug 23

11!

Sep 27

11!

Nov 1

11!

Dec 6

11!

Jan 1

2 12!

Feb 14

12!

Apr 26

12!

Jun 6

12!

Jul 1

0 12!

Aug 13

12!

Sep 26

12!

Nov 6

12!

Dec 11

12!

Jan 1

5 13!

Mar 1 1

3!

Apr 5 1

3!

May 13

13!

Jun 2

1 13!

Calgary and Surrounding (Left)! Banff/Canmore (Right)!



322 Total job postings are all unduplicated postings appearing in the Job Bank each week. This figure includes postings from the previous weeks that have been reposted as well as new job postings.

Appendix A Survey MethodologyThe Q2 2013 Calgary and Area Employer Survey is based on responses to a telephone questionnaire conducted in May and June 2013. The survey sampled 200 Calgary and area employers with 50 - 99 employees. Following are the number of respondents from each industry sector included in the sample:

Industry Number of Respondents

Mining & Oil & Gas 20Construction 20Manufacturing 20Wholesale & Retail Trade 20Transportation & Warehousing 20Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 20Health Care & Social Assistance 20Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 20Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 20Other 20Total 200

The ‘Other’ industry category includes a variety of companies from the remainder of the industry categories: Agriculture, Utilities, Information & Culture, Management of Companies, Administrative & Support Services, Educational Services, Other Services and Public Administration.

It should be noted that the method of sample selection provides a good cross-section of opinion. Nevertheless, given the size of the sample, the statistical reliability of the survey is limited, particularly when the data is reported by industry. The value of this survey, however, goes beyond the data captured by the questionnaire. The telephone interview allows companies to expand on their responses, which provides invaluable information and comments that cannot be measured quantitatively.



Labour Market Report - Alberta · 2015-07-29 · Calgary & Area Labour Market Report - Second...

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