Labour Market Notes - Alberta · Employment Growth by Province, December 2017 vs. December 2016...
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-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL CA (year-over-year % change) January 2018 Treasury Board and Finance Economics and Revenue Forecasting Labour Market Notes Alberta Employment jumps to a new high. Alberta added 26,300 jobs in December, the largest monthly gain since June 2011. Employment increased for the third month in a row, surpassing the pre-recession peak. Year-over-year job growth accelerates. With the monthly gain, employment has increased by 54,900 or 2.4% year-over-year. This was slightly higher than the Canadian rate of 2.3%. Unemployment rate falls to 26-month low. With the strong employment gains, the unemployment rate declined for the fourth month in a row. It decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 6.9% in December, the lowest level since October 2015. Participation rate moves up. After falling to a 16-year low, the labour force participation increased 0.6 percentage points to 72.5%. Private sector gaining ground. Employment in the private sector (+9,900) rose for the third consecutive month while self-employment (+12,100) increased after three monthly declines. Rotation to full-time continues. While the majority of the gains were in full-time (+15,500), part-time positions also saw a significant increase (+10,800). Since December 2016, Alberta has added 45,800 full-time and 9,200 part-time jobs. Balanced sector gains. Both the goods (+12,200) and service (+14,200) sectors posted strong monthly gains. Employment increased in all the goods-producing industries led by natural resources. Meanwhile, the gains in the service sector were concentrated in accommodation and food services (+8,900) and other services (+4,800). Over the last year, the gains have been balanced between the goods (+27,800) and service (+27,100) sectors. Earnings pause in October. Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) eased down 0.1% in October to $1,143. Compared to a year ago, earnings were up 3.5%, the largest year-over-year gain since January 2015. Canada Large back-to-back employment gain. Canadian employment grew by 78,600 in December, nearly matching November’s gain which was the largest monthly increase in more than five years. Employment increased in all provinces, with Quebec (+26,900) and Alberta (+26,300) leading the way. Unemployment rate drops to a 43-year low. The Canadian unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 5.7%, the lowest level since November 1974. Canadian earnings edge lower. Although Canadian AWE ticked 0.1% lower in October to $983, it was 3.1% higher than a year ago. Employment Growth by Province, December 2017 vs. December 2016 Source: Statistics Canada Strong finish to 2017 Alberta Labour Market Indicators Source: Statistics Canada * All data is from the December 2017 Labour Force Survey, except AWE which is the October 2017 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, and the Job Vacancy Rate is for September 2017. ** This indicator is calculated as a three-month moving average and is seasonally adjusted. *** This indicator is calculated as a three-month moving average and is not seasonally adjusted. Indicator Latest* Employment 2,322,300 month‑over‑month change +26,300 year‑over‑year % change 2.4% Alberta Unemployment Rate (UR) 6.9% Edmonton UR** 7.5% Calgary UR** 7.5% Participation Rate 72.5% Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) $1,143.46 year‑over‑year % change 3.5% Average Hourly Wage $30.78 year‑over‑year % change 3.2% Job Vacancy Rate*** 2.0%
Transcript of Labour Market Notes - Alberta · Employment Growth by Province, December 2017 vs. December 2016...
Labour Market NotesJanuary 2018
PDF Name: chrt_01.pdf
Employment growth by province
Source: Statistics Canada
chrt_01.pdf
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
BC
AB
SK
MB
ON
QC
NB
NS
PE
NL
CA
(year-over-year% change)
\\ter‐fin‐fs‐01\Publications\_Economics_publications\Labour Market Notes\Source documents\: 01.2018_LMN_Graphs1_EGBP Last updated: 05/01/2018: 11:46 AM
January 2018Treasury Board and Finance
Economics and Revenue Forecasting
Labour Market NotesAlberta � Employment jumps to a new high. Alberta added 26,300 jobs in December,
the largest monthly gain since June 2011. Employment increased for the third month in a row, surpassing the pre-recession peak.
� Year-over-year job growth accelerates. With the monthly gain, employment has increased by 54,900 or 2.4% year-over-year. This was slightly higher than the Canadian rate of 2.3%.
� Unemployment rate falls to 26-month low. With the strong employment gains, the unemployment rate declined for the fourth month in a row. It decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 6.9% in December, the lowest level since October 2015.
� Participation rate moves up. After falling to a 16-year low, the labour force participation increased 0.6 percentage points to 72.5%.
� Private sector gaining ground. Employment in the private sector (+9,900) rose for the third consecutive month while self-employment (+12,100) increased after three monthly declines.
� Rotation to full-time continues. While the majority of the gains were in full-time (+15,500), part-time positions also saw a significant increase (+10,800). Since December 2016, Alberta has added 45,800 full-time and 9,200 part-time jobs.
� Balanced sector gains. Both the goods (+12,200) and service (+14,200) sectors posted strong monthly gains. Employment increased in all the goods-producing industries led by natural resources. Meanwhile, the gains in the service sector were concentrated in accommodation and food services (+8,900) and other services (+4,800). Over the last year, the gains have been balanced between the goods (+27,800) and service (+27,100) sectors.
� Earnings pause in October. Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) eased down 0.1% in October to $1,143. Compared to a year ago, earnings were up 3.5%, the largest year-over-year gain since January 2015.
Canada � Large back-to-back employment gain. Canadian employment grew by 78,600
in December, nearly matching November’s gain which was the largest monthly increase in more than five years. Employment increased in all provinces, with Quebec (+26,900) and Alberta (+26,300) leading the way.
� Unemployment rate drops to a 43-year low. The Canadian unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 5.7%, the lowest level since November 1974.
� Canadian earnings edge lower. Although Canadian AWE ticked 0.1% lower in October to $983, it was 3.1% higher than a year ago.
Employment Growth by Province,December 2017 vs. December 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Strong finish to 2017
Alberta Labour Market Indicators
Source: Statistics Canada* All data is from the December 2017 Labour Force
Survey, except AWE which is the October 2017 Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, and the Job Vacancy Rate is for September 2017.
** This indicator is calculated as a three-month moving average and is seasonally adjusted.
*** This indicator is calculated as a three-month moving average and is not seasonally adjusted.
Indicator Latest*
Employment 2,322,300
month‑over‑month change +26,300
year‑over‑year % change 2.4%
Alberta Unemployment Rate (UR) 6.9%
Edmonton UR** 7.5%
Calgary UR** 7.5%
Participation Rate 72.5%
Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) $1,143.46
year‑over‑year % change 3.5%
Average Hourly Wage $30.78
year‑over‑year % change 3.2%
Job Vacancy Rate*** 2.0%
2015 2016 2017
Alberta
Population 2.2 1.3 0.9
Labour Force 2.6 0.6 0.7
Employment 1.2 ‑1.6 1.0
Unemployment Rate 6.0 8.1 7.8
Calgary
Population 2.9 1.9 1.4
Labour Force 3.7 1.3 1.8
Employment 2.2 ‑1.7 2.7
Unemployment Rate 6.3 9.2 8.4
Edmonton
Population 2.3 1.7 1.3
Labour Force 2.9 1.3 0.9
Employment 1.9 ‑0.2 0.1
Unemployment Rate 5.9 7.4 8.1
West
Population 0.8 0.0 ‑0.5
Labour Force ‑1.0 ‑4.2 0.1
Employment ‑3.0 ‑5.3 0.5
Unemployment Rate 5.9 6.9 6.4
Lethbridge - Medicine Hat
Population 0.6 0.0 ‑0.2
Labour Force 5.5 3.4 ‑4.4
Employment 4.4 1.2 ‑3.3
Unemployment Rate 5.0 6.9 5.7
Red Deer
Population 2.2 1.2 0.5
Labour Force ‑0.3 ‑1.8 ‑0.1
Employment ‑2.7 ‑4.3 1.7
Unemployment Rate 6.2 8.6 6.9
Camrose - Drumheller
Population 0.4 ‑0.3 ‑0.8
Labour Force ‑2.3 ‑0.1 ‑0.6
Employment ‑3.5 ‑3.4 ‑0.7
Unemployment Rate 4.5 7.8 8.0
Wood Buffalo - Cold Lake
Population 2.7 0.9 ‑0.8
Labour Force 3.2 ‑2.6 0.0
Employment ‑0.4 ‑4.0 1.8
Unemployment Rate 7.9 9.3 7.7
January 2018Treasury Board and Finance
Economics and Revenue Forecasting
Labour Market Notes - Labour InSight Page 2/3
Regional labour market indicators
Source: Statistics Canada
Employment growth by economic regionPercent change in year-over-year employment
ContactRobert Van Blyderveen 780.638.5628Have a question or idea for Labour InSight? Send us an email.
Labour Market NotesJanuary 2018
PDF name: chrt_02_employment.pdf
Alberta employment ends 2017 on strong footingYear‐over‐year change in December 2017 employment levels
Source: Statistics Canada
chrt_02_employment.pdf
2017 Annual Average
2017 *Y .excel_last.DESC.TN.LSOURCE2017 Dec‐17
2017‐Dec *.excel_last.DESC.TN.LSOURCE2017‐Dec Dec‐17
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Laber Market NotesJanuary 2018
PDF name: chrt_03
Chart 2: Momentum shifts to the goods sectorsEmployment in goods and service sector
Source: Statistics Canada
chrt_03 2015‐Dec *.DESC.TN.LSOURCE2015‐Dec2016‐Jan2016‐Feb2016‐Mar2016‐Apr2016‐May2016‐Jun2016‐Jul2016‐Aug2016‐Sep2016‐Oct2016‐Nov2016‐Dec2017‐Jan2017‐Feb2017‐Mar2017‐Apr2017‐May2017‐Jun2017‐Jul2017‐Aug
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(000s)(000s) Service Sector Goods Sector
2016 Average 2017 Average
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January 2018Treasury Board and Finance
Economics and Revenue Forecasting
Labour Market Notes - Labour InSight Page 3/3
Source: Statistics Canada
Chart 1: Alberta employment ends 2017 on strong footingYear-over-year change in December 2017 employment levels
Source: Statistics Canada
Chart 2: Momentum shifts to the goods sectorsEmployment in goods and service sector
Alberta’s labour market improved in 2017 as the economic recovery solidified. Employment grew by 1.0% while earnings picked up and the unemployment rate moved down in the second half of the year. This Labour InSight looks at the trends in Alberta’s labour market in 2017.
Underlying strength in the labour marketThe labour market continued to recover in 2017. Average annual employment increased by 23,100 after falling by 37,300 in 2016. All of the gains were in full-time positions which were partly offset by part-time losses. This ongoing rotation
Labour market moves forward in 2017from part-time to full-time moderated the overall employment gains in 2017. Within the year, Alberta added 54,900 with self-employment and the private sector responsible for nearly all of the gains (Chart 1).
Momentum in goods sectorAs the recovery took hold, the momentum in goods sector employment accelerated. Most the gains were in the hard-hit manufacturing and resource sectors. Despite the steady improvement throughout the year, annual employment in the goods sector was virtually unchanged in 2017 as the gains failed to offset the weakness entering 2017 (Chart 2). Conversely, even though employment in the service sector held steady in the second half of the year, solid gains in early in the year boosted annual employment.
Wages pick upAfter stagnating in 2016 and the first half of 2017, wages started to increase. The province’s average hourly wage increased by more $1/hr in the last five months of the year. The gain in wages was supported by the ongoing employment growth in the goods sector and increases in full-time positions, which also lifted hours worked. With the recent strong growth in wages and hours worked, AWE increased 3.5% year-over-year in October, the largest gain since January 2015.
Unemployment rate respondsWith slowing growth in the labour force and an easing participation rate, the unemployment rate moved significantly lower in 2017. It fell 1.9 percentage points through 2017 to finish the year at 6.9%. Even with the significant drop, the unemployment rate remains well above the historical average.
