Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass...

By Robert Clifford Policy Analyst New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston A joint project of Commonwealth CorporaBon and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Labor Market Trends in the!Central Mass Region!

October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region

Motivation!

§  Promote beLer public policy by conducBng objecBve research and analysis of regional economic/policy issues.

§  Understand the long-‐term labor force challenges facing the regional labor markets in MassachuseLs.

§  Provide detailed data on labor supply and demand trends to support workforce development policy discussions at a local level.

§  Build off the labor market work of Harrington and Fogg (2008) and the demographics research of Sasser ModesBno (2009, 2010).

October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region 2

The Central Mass Region!


RUTLAND

HOLDEN

WEST BOYLSTON

BOYLSTONHARDWICK

NEW BRAINTREE

OAKHAM

NORTH BROOKFIELD

SP

EN

CE

R

PAXTON

LEICESTER

WORCESTERSHEWSBURY

NORTHBOROUGH

BERLIN

BOLTON

PEPPERELL

GROTON

AYER

HARVARD

STERLING

LANCASTER

BARRE

ASHBY TOWNSEND

SHIRLEY

LUNENBURG

PRINCETON

HUBBARDSTON

TEMPLETONGARDNER FITCHBURG

CLINTON

WESTMINSTERLEOMINSTER

ASHBURNHAMWINCHEDON

WESTBOROUGH

MILLBURY

SUTTON

MILFORDHOPEDALE

MENDON

BLACKSTONE

MILLVILLE

NORTHBRIDGE

GRAFTON

OXFORDCHARLTON

DOUGLASUXBRIDGE

UPTON

WEST BROOKFIELD

WARREN BROOKFIELD

EA

ST

BR

OO

KFIE

LD

AUBURN

WEBSTERDUDLEYSOUTHBRIDGE

STURBRIDGE

Summary!

§  Central Mass was one of the hardest hit regional labor markets in the Great Recession, with job losses and unemployment exceeding statewide rates.

§  Central Mass has the fastest growing populaBon among all regional labor markets and has seen significant gains in educaBonal aLainment in the past decade.

§  A large share of the region’s labor force sBll has only a High School Degree or less. These individuals face significant barriers to full employment.

§  Community Colleges play a sizeable role in the supply of CerBficates and Associate’s Degrees in Central Mass.


Outline!

§  Labor Market Performance

§  Labor Supply

§  Labor Demand

§  The Pipeline: EducaBonal Supply of Post-‐Secondary Degrees

October 17, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Southeast Region 5

Labor Market Performance!

§  NaBonal and State Employment Trends

§  Performance of Regional Labor Markets

§  Employment Trends by Industry in Central Mass and MassachuseLs


Massachusetts is still far below its peak employment levels of the early 2000’s.!


0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

Q1-‐2000 Q1-‐2001 Q1-‐2002 Q1-‐2003 Q1-‐2004 Q1-‐2005 Q1-‐2006 Q1-‐2007 Q1-‐2008 Q1-‐2009 Q1-‐2010 Q1-‐2011 Q1-‐2012

Total Non-‐Agricultural Employment, Q1-‐2000 to Q2-‐2012

NBER Recession United States Massachusetts

Through Q2-‐2012 Index 2000=1

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

7

Central Mass was hit harder than Massachusetts in the Great Recession and has recovered at a slightly slower pace.!


-‐0.5%

-‐4.5%

2.6%

-‐8.0%

-‐6.0%

-‐4.0%

-‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0% Total Growth Rates in Employment

Q1 2001-‐Q1 2008 Q4 2007-‐Q4 2009 Q4 2009-‐Q4 2011

Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD), ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

8

Central Mass has notably larger shares of employment than the state in Education & Health Services and Manufacturing.!


30.5% 27.2% 24.3%

20.1% 18.3% 20.7%

10.6% 15.2% 13.6%

9.0% 9.8% 10.5%

11.2% 7.9% 9.1%

4.9% 6.5% 5.9%

4.2% 4.3% 3.5%

3.8% 4.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9% 4.5% 1.5% 2.8% 2.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Central Mass MassachuseLs United States

Employment DistribuAon by Supersector, Q4 2011 InformaBon

ConstrucBon

Other Services

Government

Financial AcBviBes

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hospitality

Professional & Business Services Trade, TransportaBon & UBliBes EducaBon & Health Services

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. 9

Job losses between recessions were concentrated in fewer industries in Central Mass relative to Massachusetts.!


-‐40.0% -‐30.0% -‐20.0% -‐10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%

AccommodaBon & Food Services Health Care & Social Assistance

Arts, Entertainment & RecreaBon EducaBonal Services

TransportaBon & Warehousing Other Services

AdministraBve & Support Services Government ConstrucBon Retail Trade

Professional & Technical Services UBliBes

Financial AcBviBes Wholesale Trade

InformaBon Manufacturing

Management of Companies & Enterprises

Employment Changes, Q1-‐2001 to Q1-‐2008

MassachuseLs Central Mass

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202. 10

In the Great Recession job losses were larger and spread across more industries in Central Mass than statewide.!


-‐25.0% -‐20.0% -‐15.0% -‐10.0% -‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

Health Care & Social Assistance EducaBonal Services

Arts, Entertainment & RecreaBon AccommodaBon & Food Services

Wholesale Trade Government

Financial AcBviBes Professional & Technical Services

Other Services Retail Trade

TransportaBon & Warehousing UBliBes

InformaBon AdministraBve & Support Services

Manufacturing Management of Companies & Enterprises

ConstrucBon




In the first two years of the recovery, strong employment gains in a few industries were mitigated by losses in others.!


-‐10.0% -‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Management of Companies & Enterprises TransportaBon & Warehousing

UBliBes Other Services ConstrucBon

Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade

Professional & Technical Services Financial AcBviBes

AccommodaBon & Food Services InformaBon

AdministraBve & Support Services EducaBonal Services

Arts, Entertainment, & RecreaBon Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade Government




Labor Supply!

§  ResidenBal PopulaBon Changes and CharacterisBcs

§  NaBvity Status, Age, and EducaBon of the Civilian Labor Force

§  Trends and CharacterisBcs of the Unemployed §  CommuBng PaLerns


Central Mass has had the fastest growing population in the state over the past decade.!


0.7% 0.7%

-‐1.5%

-‐1.0%

-‐0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5% Total ResidenAal PopulaAon Growth

Annual Growth Rate 2000 to 2005-‐2007

Annual Growth Rate 2005-‐2007 to 2008-‐2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) data files, 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Micro Sample (PUMS) data files.

14

Growth in immigrant and minority populations accounted for a majority of the growth in the resident population.!


Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

Demographic CharacterisAcs of Central Mass

15

2000 2008-‐2010 Absolute Change

Annual Growth Rate

Resident PopulaBon 628,644 667,115 38,471 0.7% Gender Male 304,428 325,996 21,568 0.8% Female 324,216 341,119 16,903 0.6% NaAvity NaBve Born 557,843 568,814 10,971 0.2% Immigrant 70,801 98,301 27,500 3.7% Race/Ethnicity White, non-‐Hispanic 538,545 534,042 -‐4,503 -‐0.1% Black, non-‐Hispanic 15,628 26,035 10,407 5.8% Asian, non-‐Hispanic 15,701 28,658 12,957 6.9% Hispanic 46,575 65,550 18,975 3.9% Other race, non-‐Hispanic 12,195 12,830 635 0.6%

Immigrants played a major role in the region’s civilian labor force growth exceeding state and national trends.!


1.3% 0.6%

6.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%


Civilian Labor Force Growth by NaAvity Status, 2000 to 2005-‐2007

16

1.8% 0.9%

6.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%


Civilian Labor Force Growth by NaAvity Status, 2005-‐2007 to 2008-‐2010

Total NaBve Born Immigrant

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files, and 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

The civilian labor force in Central Mass has become slightly older than that of Massachusetts in the past decade.!



13.3% 13.1% 12.9% 13.2% 15.2% 14.2%

22.8% 18.5% 23.3% 20.2% 22.7% 21.5%

28.0% 23.2%

27.0% 22.0%

26.8% 22.3%

22.5%

25.4% 22.4%

23.9%

21.8% 23.3%

10.3% 15.4%

10.8% 15.8%

10.2% 14.7%

3.1% 4.4% 3.6% 4.7% 3.3% 4.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 Central Mass

2008-‐2010

2000 MassachuseLs

2008-‐2010

2000 United States

2008-‐2010

Age DistribuAon of the Civilian Labor Force

Age 65+

Age 55-‐64

Age 45-‐54

Age 35-‐44

Age 25-‐34

Age 16-‐24

17

The region’s labor force has a larger concentration of individuals with a High School Degree relative to Massachusetts.!



13.4% 8.5% 11.5% 8.7% 15.5% 11.8%

27.7% 27.1% 24.3%

23.5%

26.9% 26.3%

20.7% 20.7% 19.1%

18.7%

23.9% 24.0%

8.8% 9.2% 7.9%

7.9%

7.2% 8.3%

18.7% 22.1% 22.3%

24.4%

17.2% 19.1%

10.7% 12.4% 14.8% 16.8% 9.4% 10.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 Central Mass

2008-‐2010

2000 MassachuseLs

2008-‐2010

2000 United States

2008-‐2010

EducaAonal AQainment of the Civilian Labor Force

Master's degree or more

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some College, no degree

High School

Less than High School

18

In the past decade Central Mass has seen stronger labor force growth the higher the level of educational attainment.!


-‐3.5%

1.2%

1.5%

2.0%

3.4%

3.2%

-‐2.2%

0.6%

0.7%

1.0%

2.0%

2.4%

-‐4.0% -‐3.0% -‐2.0% -‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%


High School


Associate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Master's Degree or more MassachuseLs Central Mass

Annual Growth in the Civilian Labor Force by EducaAon, 2000 to 2008-‐2010

19


The trends in education and aging leave Central Mass with potential shortfalls of workers in certain education categories.!


Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000


High School

Some College

Associate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Master's Degree or more

EducaAonal AQainment of the Civilian Labor Force in Central Mass

Age 55-‐64

Age 45-‐54

Age 35-‐44

Age 25-‐34

20

In the Great Recession the unemployment rate reached 9.0 percent in Central Mass, second highest among all regions.!


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Unemployment Rates, 2000 to 2011

United States MassachuseQs Central Mass

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Massachusetts EOLWD, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates.

21

The unemployed in Central Mass are disproportionately younger and have lower levels of educational attainment.!


13.1% 24.8%

18.5%

18.8%

23.2%

18.9%

25.4% 21.8%

15.4% 12.5% 4.4% 3.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Civilian Labor Force Unemployed

Age DistribuAon

Age 65+ Age 55-‐64 Age 45-‐54

Age 35-‐44 Age 25-‐34 Age 16-‐24


8.5% 19.9%

27.1%

35.1%

20.7%

20.2% 9.2%

7.3% 22.1%

12.3% 12.4%

5.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Civilian Labor Force Unemployed

EducaAon DistribuAon

Master's degree or more Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some College, no degree High School Less than High School

22

In both the region and state individuals with lower levels of educational attainment face significant barriers to employment.!


19.2%

10.5%

8.0%

6.5%

4.5%

3.3%

17.9%

10.9%

9.1%

6.0%

5.3%

3.4%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%


High School


Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree or more MassachuseLs Central Mass

Unemployment Rates by EducaAon, 2008-‐2010

23


The Central Mass region is closely tied to neighboring labor markets, with large shares of residents working elsewhere.!


Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files. 24

Number Percent of Total Total number of employed persons living in Central Mass… 332,752 100.00% …that work in: Central Mass 238,002 71.5% Metro South/West 56,392 16.9% Boston/Metro North 11,564 3.5% Northeast 7,105 2.1% Pioneer Valley 5,902 1.8% Other parts of MassachuseLs 3,291 1.0% ConnecBcut 3,412 1.0% Rhode Island 2,696 0.8% Other places outside MassachuseLs 4,388 1.3%

Total number of persons working in Central Mass… 292,812 100.0% …that live in: Central Mass 238,002 81.3% Metro South/West 23,306 8.0% Boston/Metro North 2,859 1.0% Northeast 3,942 1.3% Pioneer Valley 8,718 3.0% Other parts of MassachuseLs 3,148 1.1% ConnecBcut 5,360 1.8% Rhode Island 3,552 1.2% Other places outside MassachuseLs 3,925 1.3%

Net in-‐commuAng -‐39,940 -‐

Labor Demand!

§  EducaBonal ALainment of Employed

§  EducaBonal ALainment and ComposiBon of Industries and OccupaBons

§  Demand for Workers with Post-‐Secondary EducaBon Pre-‐ and Post-‐Recession


The educational attainment of those employed in Central Mass region is closer to the average nationwide than statewide.!



12.8% 7.9% 10.6% 7.6% 14.4% 10.7%

28.3% 26.9% 24.0%

22.7%

26.7% 25.7%

20.4% 21.1% 19.2%

18.6%

24.1% 24.0%

8.6% 9.4%

8.1% 8.2%

7.3% 8.5%

18.1% 21.2% 22.9%

25.4%

17.7% 19.9%

11.8% 13.4% 15.1% 17.5% 9.7% 11.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 Central Mass

2008-‐2010

2000 MassachuseLs

2008-‐2010

2000 United States

2008-‐2010

EducaAonal AQainment of Individuals Employed in the Region

Master's degree or more

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree


High School


26

Most industries in the region have small shares of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, but large shares with “middle-skills”.!



24.0%

11.6%

45.1%

45.4%

37.5%

22.5%

34.9%

27.3%

38.4%

65.9%

20.0%

27.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Health Care & Social Assistance

EducaBonal Services

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

EducaAonal AQainment of Employees by Selected Major Industries in Central Mass

23.0%

11.7%

42.1%

37.3%

33.2%

15.5%

33.1%

23.8%

43.8%

72.7%

24.8%

38.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Health Care & Social Assistance

EducaBonal Services

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher

EducaAonal AQainment of Employees by Selected Major Industries in MassachuseQs

27

The pattern persists across occupations, although the difference in post-secondary educational attainment is not as large.!



6.4%

6.4%

35.3%

68.2%

32.4%

17.7%

35.5%

24.7%

61.2%

75.9%

29.2%

7.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Healthcare PracBBoners & Technical

EducaBon, Training, & Library Services

Sales

ProducBon

EducaAonal AQainment of Employees by Selected OccupaAons in Central Mass

6.4%

5.8%

31.5%

65.6%

29.9%

13.2%

31.0%

23.2%

63.8%

81.0%

37.5%

11.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Healthcare PracBBoners & Technical

EducaBon, Training, & Library Services

Sales

ProducBon

High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher

EducaAonal AQainment of Employees by Selected OccupaAon in MassachuseQs

28

Prior to the recession vacancy rates were greater in most of the more highly educated occupations than in the less educated.!


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Occup

aBon

al Vacancy Rate

Share of Employees with a Post-‐Secondary EducaBon by Major OccupaBon

Central Mass MassachuseLs Linear (Central Mass) Linear (MassachuseLs)

Job Vacancies and EducaAonal AQainment by OccupaAon, Pre-‐Recession

ProducBon

Sales

EducaBon, Training, & Library

Healthcare PracBBoners

Source: Massachusetts EOLWD, Job Vacancy Survey and U.S. Census Bureau 2005-2007 ACS PUMS data files.

The Pipeline: Educational Supply of Post-Secondary Degrees!

§  Enrollment PaLerns

§  Degree CompleBons

§ Major Fields of Study by Degree Type


Enrollments growth at two-year higher education institutions in the region have far exceeded state and national trends.!


-‐0.8%

7.7% 6.3%

3.5% 2.6%

-‐4.1%

-‐8.0%

-‐4.0%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

Central Mass MassachuseLs United States Central Mass MassachuseLs United States

Annual Growth in Enrollments, 2000 to 2010

Less-‐than-‐Two-‐Year InsBtuBons Two-‐Year InsBtuBons Four-‐Year InsBtuBons

Part-‐Time Enrollment

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

Full-‐Time Enrollment

Institutions in Central Mass exceeded statewide growth in completions of Certificates and Associate’s Degrees.!


7.7%

3.8%

2.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%


Annual Growth in CompleAons, 2000 to 2010

CerBficates Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees


Community colleges account for a large share of Certificate and Associate’s Degree completions in Central Mass.!



Top InsAtuAons GranAng Degrees in Central Mass, 2010

33

InsBtuBon Type Public or Private

Degrees Awarded

Share of Degree Type Completed

in Region

CerBficates

The Salter School-‐Worcester Less-‐than-‐Two-‐Years Private 337 26.7%

Mount WachuseL Community College Two-‐Year Public 270 21.4%

Quinsigamond Community College Two-‐Year Public 242 19.1%

Associate's

Quinsigamond Community College Two-‐Year Public 802 48.0%

Mount WachuseL Community College Two-‐Year Public 519 31.1%

Salter College-‐West Boylston Two-‐Year Private 183 11.0%

Bachelor's Worcester State University Four-‐Year Public 768 16.2%

Worcester Polytechnic InsBtute Four-‐Year Private 720 15.2%

College of the Holy Cross Four-‐Year Private 716 15.1%

Public institutions in Central Mass play a larger role in Certificate and Associate’s Degree completions than statewide.!


40.5%

79.3%

30.6%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

75.0%

100.0%


Share of CompleAons at Public InsAtuAons, 2000

34

44.7%

79.1%

30.8%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

75.0%

100.0%


Share of CompleAons at Public InsAtuAons, 2010

CerBficates Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

Health Sciences and Services have accounted for most of the Certificates completed in Central Mass.!


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Science & MathemaBcs Engineering & Computer Sciences Business Services Health Sciences

Annual CerAficate CompleAons by Major in Central Mass, 2000 to 2010


Health Science degrees are the largest field of study for Associate’s Degree and have increased nearly every year.!


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Engineering & Computer Sciences Services Arts, HumaniBes, & Social Sciences Business Health Sciences

Annual Associate’s Degree CompleAons by Major in Central Mass, 2000 to 2010


Central Mass has higher concentrations of Bachelor’s Degree completions in STEM fields than Massachusetts.!


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Services Science & MathemaBcs Engineering & Computer Sciences Business Arts, HumaniBes, & Social Sciences

Annual Bachelor’s Degree CompleAons by Major in Central Mass, 2000 to 2010


Summary!

§  The Great Recession led to steep job losses, a slow recovery, and elevated levels of unemployment in Central Mass.

§  Large populaBon growth, stronger gains in the educaBonal aLainment of the civilian labor force, and more muted demographic challenges from an aging labor force, relaBve to the state, are posiBve trends for the Central Mass region.

§  A large share of the region’s labor force have a High School Degree. Such individuals are more likely to be unemployed than those with a post-‐secondary educaBon and face significant barriers to full employment.

§  Given such trends, what should be done to ensure the future economic vitality of the Central Mass region moving forward?


Thank You!


[email protected]!!

www.bostonfed.org/neppc!

Facilitated Table Discussions!

§  How does the presentaBon & data resonate with you & those in your posiBon and/or industry? What are the implicaBons?

§  What educaBon, training, or skills gap do you witness in your posiBon?

§  For educaBon & training providers, what trends do you see in educaBon and/or placing recent graduates/program completers?

§  What suggesBons do you have for addressing ongoing needs?


Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass...

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