Labor Day Report 2013

Barbara WagnerChief Economist

Montana Department of Labor and IndustryNovember 5, 2013

Montana’s Unemployment Outperformed the U.S. During the Recession

Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

5.3%

7.2%

Unemployment Claims are Decreasing

Source: LAUS, UI Claims Data, MT DLI

Where does Montana’s Unemployment Rate Come From?

• Current Population Survey phone calls (~750 households)– Targets workers, includes self-employed– Includes information on part-time and discouraged workers

• Current Employment Statistics (3,500 businesses)

• Unemployment Insurance Claims– About third to half of unemployed receive benefits

Employment and labor force distributed to each county based on Census Population and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

Employment Change over Prior Year

Source: LAUS, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, MT DLI

2.3%

Employment Change over Prior Year (2013 Estimate)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Jobs

Add

ed/L

ost o

ver P

rior Y

ear

TotalPayroll

Private Pay-roll

Estimate based on

August Pre-liminary

Job Counts

Source: LAUS and QCEW, MT DLI.

Employment Change in Recession and Recovery

Source: QCEW, MT DLI.

Jobs Added by New Firms by Size

Employment Performance by Pre-2006 Existing Firms

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 22006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Less than 55 to 910 to 50Over 50Pe

rcen

t of 2

006

empl

oym

ent

U.S. and MT Personal Income Growth

Components of GDP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

INVEST-MENT

PERSONAL CONSUMP-

TION70%

EXPORT BAL-ANCE

GOVERNMENT20%

Debt vs. Deficit19

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Debt = Accumulated

Deficit

Revenues (Taxes)Outlays (Spending)

Historic and Predicted Debt

Components of Federal Spending

Source: Congressional Budget Office, 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook

Montana Funding$5,472,629,464 in FY2013

Top Five Prime Award Sub Agencies Million Dollars FY2013

1 Social Security Administration $2,646

2 Medicare and Medicaid Services $779

3 Veterans Benefits Administration $336

4 Department of Education $306

5 Farm Service Agency $223

Source: USAspending.gov

2012 Wages by Sector

Total Private Government Federal State Local$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$37,093 $35,983

$41,781

$61,861

$42,477

$35,503

2008-2012 Wage Growth by Sector

Total Private Government Federal State Local

-$1,000

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$3,788$4,056

$2,406

$4,382

-$264

$3,136

Percent Wage Growth

Total Private Government Federal State Local

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

3.6%

4.2%

1.9%

0.9%

2.1%2.5%

2.7%3.0%

1.5%1.9%

-0.2%

2.3%

1.1%1.4%

-0.1% 0.2%

-1.7%

0.7%

2011 to 2012 Growth2008 to 2012 Growth

2008 to 2012 Real Growth

Five-Year Real Wage Growth

Northwest Southwest North Central South Central Eastern Montana

State Average0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

0.3%

3.8% 3.9% 4.1%

16.4%

3.9%

Montana Labor Force by Demographic

White; 92.9%

5.9%

Other; 1.2%

American Indian

Men52%

Women48%

Veterans, 10.9%

Disabled Workers6.7%

16 to 19 years4%

20 to 24 years10%

25 to 34 years24%

35 to 44 years20%

45 to 54 years22%

55 to 64 years20%

Less than High School

4%

Some College or Assocs

32%

Bache-lor’s or Higher34%

HS Grad30%

2012 Unemployment Rate by Demographic

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Total

Men

Wom

en

White

American Indian*

Disabled

Veteran

Less than High School

HS Grad, 6.1Some College or

Assoc, 6.7Bach or Higher, 3.3

Median Wages for Montanans 25 and Older

Experience: Part-Time Status

Source: American Community Survey, 2011, 1-year Estimates

Did not Work Worked 50 to 52 Weeks

35 Hours or More 15 to 34 Hours 1 to 14 Hours0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Male

Female

Usual Hours WorkedNumber of Weeks Worked

Source: American Community Survey, 2012. Map prepared by Forbes.com. Casserly, Meghan, “The Geography of the Gender Pay Gap: Women’s Earnings by State” http://www.forbes.com/sites/meghancasserly/2013/09/19/the-geography-of-the-gender-pay-gap-womens-earnings-by-state .

Source: The Simple Truth about the Gender Pay Gap. Rep. American Association of University Women, 8 Mar. 2013. 12-13. www.aauw.org/resource/the-simple-truth-about-the-gender-pay-gap.

U.S. Median Wage by Selected Occupations and Gender

Food preparation and servingMaterial moving

Personal care and service Healthcare support

Office and administrative support Production

Construction and extraction Transportation

Community and social services Protective service

Education, training, and library Life, physical, and social science

Business and financial operationsManagement

Computer and mathematicalHealthcare practitioner and technical

Legal

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

Source: ACS 2011, 1 year estimates

WomenMen

U.S. Median Wage by Gender and Industry

Accom. and food services Admin and waste services

Retail trade Other services

Arts & entertainment Construction

Real estate Transportation

Wholesale trade Manufacturing

Education Health care

Public administration Information

Mining Utilities Finance

Prof. and and tech. services

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000

Source: ACS 2011, 1 year estimates

WomenMen

U.S. Median Wage by Gender and Class of Worker

Private

NonProfit

Local Gov

State Gov

Federal Gov

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

Source: ACS 2011, 1 year estimates

WomenMen

Women’s Earnings as Percent of Men’s by Age Group Over Time

Take Away Points

• Gap exists across– Most occupations (there are some that pay is equal)– All industries– Private, public, and nonprofit– All education groups– All age groups– All states, although MT is near the bottom

• Gap has decreased over time.

• A good economy seems to help.

Factors Influencing Pay and the Gender Gap

• Occupation choice

• Industry choice

• Education

• Experience Montana Gap = $0.33

14₵ 9₵ 7₵

Unemployment Rates by Region

Employment Growth by Region

Montana Projected Population by Age Group

Employment Status of the Montana Population

Labor Force Participation Rates

Total Men Women White American Indian*

Disabled Veteran0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Output (GDP)

PhysicalInputs

LaborCapital

Productivity Defined

Output (GDP)

PhysicalInputs

Labor

Capital

High Productivity Low Productivity

Wages and Productivity

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70N

ew Y

ork

Conn

ectic

utM

assa

chus

etts

New

Jers

eyCa

lifor

nia

Illin

ois

Mar

ylan

dDe

law

are

Virg

inia

Was

hing

ton

Texa

sCo

lora

doAl

aska

Min

neso

taN

ew H

amps

hire

Penn

sylv

ania

Geor

gia

Mic

higa

nAr

izona

Rhod

e Isl

and

Wyo

min

gTe

nnes

see

Loui

siana

Ore

gon

Ohi

oN

orth

Dak

ota

Nor

th C

arol

ina

Miss

ouri

Nev

ada

Flor

ida

Wisc

onsin

Kans

asIn

dian

aO

klah

oma

Alab

ama

Utah

Haw

aii

Verm

ont

Kent

ucky

New

Mex

ico

Wes

t Virg

inia

Iow

aSo

uth

Caro

lina

Neb

rask

aM

aine

Arka

nsas

Idah

oSo

uth

Dako

taM

onta

naM

ississ

ippi

Aver

age

Wag

e

Labo

r Pro

ducti

vity

(GSP

per

wor

ker h

our)

Source: Wages from QCEW, 2011 annual. GSP and employment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and average hours from the Current Employment Statistics. Calculated by MT DLI R&A.

Wages

Labor Productivity

Productivity and Education

Source: Education attainment from 2009-2011 ACS, U.S. Census. GSP and employment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and average hours from the Current Employment Statistics. Calculated by MT DLI R&A.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%M

assa

chus

etts

Colo

rado

Mar

ylan

dCo

nnec

ticut

New

Jers

eyVi

rgin

iaVe

rmon

tN

ew H

amps

hire

New

Yor

kM

inne

sota

Was

hing

ton

Illin

ois

Rhod

e Isl

and

Calif

orni

aKa

nsas

Utah

Haw

aii

Ore

gon

Dela

war

eM

onta

naN

ebra

ska

Mai

neGe

orgi

aAl

aska

Penn

sylv

ania

Nor

th D

akot

aN

orth

Car

olin

aAr

izona

Wisc

onsin

Texa

sSo

uth

Dako

taFl

orid

aM

issou

riN

ew M

exic

oIo

wa

Ohi

oId

aho

Wyo

min

gSo

uth

Caro

lina

Tenn

esse

eO

klah

oma

Indi

ana

Nev

ada

Alab

ama

Loui

siana

Kent

ucky

Miss

issip

piAr

kans

asM

ichi

gan

Wes

t Virg

iniaPo

pula

tion

25 a

nd O

lder

with

Bac

helo

r's

Educational Attain-ment

Productivity and Education

Source: Education attainment from 2009-2011 ACS, U.S. Census. GSP and employment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and average hours from the Current Employment Statistics. Calculated by MT DLI R&A.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70M

assa

chus

etts

Colo

rado

Mar

ylan

dCo

nnec

ticut

New

Jers

eyVi

rgin

iaVe

rmon

tN

ew H

amps

hire

New

Yor

kM

inne

sota

Was

hing

ton

Illin

ois

Rhod

e Isl

and

Calif

orni

aKa

nsas

Utah

Haw

aii

Ore

gon

Dela

war

eM

onta

naN

ebra

ska

Mai

neGe

orgi

aAl

aska

Penn

sylv

ania

Nor

th D

akot

aN

orth

Car

olin

aAr

izona

Wisc

onsin

Texa

sSo

uth

Dako

taFl

orid

aM

issou

riN

ew M

exic

oIo

wa

Ohi

oId

aho

Wyo

min

gSo

uth

Caro

lina

Tenn

esse

eO

klah

oma

Indi

ana

Nev

ada

Alab

ama

Loui

siana

Kent

ucky

Miss

issip

piAr

kans

asM

ichi

gan

Wes

t Virg

iniaPo

pula

tion

25 a

nd O

lder

with

Bac

helo

r's

Labo

r Pro

ducti

vity

(GSP

per

wor

ker h

our)

Educational Attain-ment

Labor Productivity

Montana’s labor productivity is lower than expected given education levels.

Use of Technology(measured in percent of workers in IT fields)

Source: Occupational Employment Statistics, 2012. Employment in 11-3021 and 15-0000 as percent of total employment.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Virg

inia

Was

hing

ton

Mas

sach

usett

sM

aryl

and

Colo

rado

Dela

war

eN

ew Je

rsey

Calif

orni

aM

inne

sota

New

Ham

pshi

reCo

nnec

ticut

Arizo

naM

issou

riUt

ahGe

orgi

aTe

xas

Rhod

e Isl

and

Nor

th C

arol

ina

Neb

rask

aN

ew Y

ork

Ore

gon

Illin

ois

Ohi

oM

ichi

gan

Penn

sylv

ania

Verm

ont

Wisc

onsin

Kans

asFl

orid

aAl

abam

aIo

wa

Idah

oN

ew M

exic

oN

orth

Dak

ota

Indi

ana

Sout

h Ca

rolin

aTe

nnes

see

Alas

kaAr

kans

asKe

ntuc

kyM

aine

Okl

ahom

aHa

wai

iM

onta

naSo

uth

Dako

taW

est V

irgin

iaN

evad

aLo

uisia

naW

yom

ing

Miss

issip

pi

Perc

ent o

f Wor

kfor

ce in

IT o

ccup

ation

s

Labo

r Pro

ducti

vity

(GSP

/Wor

ker H

our)

QUESTIONS?

Full report and presentation available at www.lmi.mt.gov, or directly at

www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPublications/5314_LDR-13.pdf

.