Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making

Korean Technology Foresight for Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingS & T Policy Making

Byeongwon Park* & Seok-ho Son

Technology Foresight CenterTechnology Foresight CenterKorea Institute of S&T Evaluation and PlanningKorea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology

Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making

28th- 29th September 2006

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology

Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making

28th- 29th September 2006

Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making

Korea’s S&T has achieved Korea’s S&T has achieved remarkable growth during the remarkable growth during the

last half century.last half century.


Past and Present of Korea’s S&TPast and Present of Korea’s S&T

World 8World 8thth Power in S&T by 2025 Power in S&T by 2025World 8World 8thth Power in S&T by 2025 Power in S&T by 2025

SCI Paper19,279(2004)

55% (since 2000) US

Patents4,428

34% (since 2000)

R&D Budget

28,774(milliom US$ PPP)56% (since 2000)

New S&T Administration

Since 2004

# of Researcher156,220 FTE

44% (since 2000)

Corporate Research Institutes

10,270(2004)44% (since 2000)

Technological Competitiveness2nd (IMD, 2005)7th(WEF, 2005)


Government R&D in Korea

MOST : 19% for Scientific R&D

MOCIE : 19% for Industrial Technology Development

MIC : 9% for Information & Communication Technology

MOST(OSTI) : 11% for Managing Research Organizations

Rest of Ministries(Defense, Agriculture,Transportation,etc.)

Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05)

MOCIE : Ministry of Commerce, Industry & EnergyMOST : Ministry of Science & TechnologyMIC : Ministry of Information & CommunicationOSTI: Office of Science & Technology Innovation


Government R&D Related Organizational StructureOrganizational Structure

PresidentPresidentN S T C *N S T C *

Main Bodies of R&D(Research Institutions under Research Council,

Private Companies, Universities, etc)

Main Bodies of R&D(Research Institutions under Research Council,

Private Companies, Universities, etc)

*NSTC : National Science & Technology Council

MOSTMOST

ITEP AgenciesKISTEP

IITA

OSTIOSTI

KOSEF

MOCIEMOCIE OthersOthersMICMIC

Vice Prime Ministry


Chronology of major Government R&D Programs in Korea

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001HAN Project (G7) Dual Use Tech. Program

MOSTNRL Program21C Frontier Program

Nuclear Energy Development Program

MOST National R&D Programs

Basic Science Program

Industrial Technology Program (Program for SME’s Key Tech. Program)Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation Program

MOCIE

Information & Telecommunication Technology ProgramMICDual Use Tech. ProgramMOD

Health & Medical Technology ProgramMOHW Environmental Technology Program

Key EnvironmentTech. Program

MOEnv

Agricultural Technology ProgramMOAFSMBA Small Business Innovation Research

Academia Support ProgramMOEBK21 Program

Creative Research InitiativesSpace Tech. Development Program

2002 2004

Next-generation

growth engine program


BUTBUT, , Korea faces the new and daunting Korea faces the new and daunting challenges in coming years. challenges in coming years.


Korean Economy in the midst of UncertaintyKorean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty

Increasing risk due to new TechIncreasing risk due to new Tech

-Advances in NT, BT, ET-Fast-follower World leader

Increasing risk due to new TechIncreasing risk due to new Tech

-Advances in NT, BT, ET-Fast-follower World leader

High oil price High oil price

- 97% import of energy-Energy-intensive industry

-(ex.steel Ind.)

High oil price High oil price

- 97% import of energy-Energy-intensive industry

-(ex.steel Ind.)

Fast Ageing societyFast Ageing society

-fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06)-Net decrease in population after 2020

Fast Ageing societyFast Ageing society

-fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06)-Net decrease in population after 2020

Socioeconomic PolarizationSocioeconomic Polarization

-Collapse of middle class-Big Corp. vs. SMEs-Seoul vs. Regional

Socioeconomic PolarizationSocioeconomic Polarization

-Collapse of middle class-Big Corp. vs. SMEs-Seoul vs. Regional

FTA & economic BlockFTA & economic Block

-38.3% GDP dependence on Export-Rising China

--Nutcraker Situation

FTA & economic BlockFTA & economic Block

-38.3% GDP dependence on Export-Rising China

--Nutcraker Situation

North KoreaNorth KoreaNorth KoreaNorth Korea


challenges in S&T areachallenges in S&T area

0

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1982

1983

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DevelopmentAppliedBasic

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Weak Basic Research

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YEAR

US$

(mill

ion)

Export

Import

Tech. Trade Deficit

Increasing Technology Trade Deficits

a serious sociocultural phenomena of avoiding sci. & eng. among the young

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

19951996

19971998

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20012002

20032004

YEAR

%

VocationalLiberal ArtScience

"Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed

into cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must

learn to live with the beast.“

-Paul J.H. Schoemaker


How can Korea find a way to the future of S&T?

Foresight ActivitiesForesight Activities


YEAR DELPHI MIXED PANEL/SCENARIO

1970-

1989 Netherlands

1990 1st Germany5th Japan OECD(→Present)

1991 1st US-Core Tech.

1992 New Zealand, UN(→present)

1993 1st Korean TF(→1994) 2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany-

21C Tech.

1994 FranceJapan/Germany 1st UK Netherlands

1995 6th Japan France-100 core Tech.3rd US-critical Tech.

1996 JapanGermany

AU-ASTEC, Finalnd(1996-98)Netherlands (Future Committee)

Italy industrial forecastingACUNU Millennium ProjectNigeria, India, Philippines

1997 Spain-OPTI Ireland

1998Austria

GermanyUS George Washington

Univ.

South Africa, New ZealandSweden, 4th US- critical Tech.

Norway, APECEU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands

19992nd Korean TF(→1999)

SpainAPEC

Hungary-TEP2nd UK, Germany-FUTUR(→present)

Ireland, Italy

2000 Venezuela2nd France-100 Core Tech.

Italy 2nd Industrial forecastingChina, Portugal, Brazil

2001 7th Japan Czech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia

2002 Turkey Bulgaria, Rumania, 3rd UK(→present)

2003-2004 8th Japan(→2004)China 3rd Korean TF(→2004)

EU(FP 6 →(till 2006)UK (every year)

Germany( every year), UN, OECD


Foresight is booming everywhere in the world

• Increasing interest in thinking about the future of S&Tin order to strengthen the ability to anticipate future S&T related issuesIn order to formulate new strategy for S&T policy

• Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in many countries and private firms.Because TF can make a unique strategic contribution to the policy maker and firm

manager as well as social stakeholders.Especially in the science and technology related area.

• The need for priorities in science and technology No one country can afford vast amount of R&D spending

• This Seville Seminar is a premier example that shows the current emerging issues in Foresight activities.


Currently On-going TF activity in KoreaCurrently On-going TF activity in KoreaType Sponsorin

g MinistryFacilitating organization Thematic Area or Project Title Time

HorizonMethodolo

gy

TF(2006)

Ministry of Information and Communication

IITA(Institute for Information Technology Advancement)

Foresight for Information Technology

-2030 Delphi

NCA(National Computerization Agency)

Ubiquitous Korea +15 yrs Panel

TF(2006)

Ministry of Health and Welfare

KHIDI(Korea Health Industry Development Institute)

Future Trends in Health care and Life Science

+15 yrs Delphi

TF(2006)

Ministry of Environment

KIEST(Korea Institute of

Environmental Science and Technology)

Future Trends in Environmental Technology

+15 yrs Environmental ScanningDelphi

TF(2006)

Ministry of Science and Technology

KISTEP(Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning)

Thematic Foresight-Nanomaterial-Stem cell-Ubiquitous Computing

+15 yrs PanelScenario

F The PresidentialOffice

Presidential Committee on Education Innovation

Future of Education in Korea-What we do right now?

+15 yrs Panel

TRM(2001-present)

Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy

KOTEF(Korea Industrial Technology Foundation)

Technology Roadmap for- Material and Component- Industries (Robot, Battery, Semiconductor, Automobile etc.)

+10 yrs TRM Panel

ST(2006)

Ministry of Planning and Budget

Co-Work with KDI(Korea Development Institute)

Vision 2030- Layout for government Budget Spending up to 2030

-2030 Panel


Overview of the 3Overview of the 3rdrd Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOST Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOST

• S&T basic Law : Article 13 (enacted in 2001)• Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP)• Provide the vision and direction of emerging S&T area – identify

new technology that may have high potential for growth of national wealth and betterment of quality of human life

• Has to implement in S&T basic plan (every 5 year, 2nd Plan for 2008-2012))

1st TF (1993-1994) and 2nd TF(1997-1998) were Lab-Directed Research Projects carried out by STEPI * and KISTEP

*STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute)

3rd TF was carried out in 2003-2004 by KISTEP and it is the first TF after enactment of S&T basic Law.


3rd Korean TF : Characteristics3rd Korean TF : Characteristics• Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues in future

Korea and enlargement of participation of the stakeholders• Application of Delphi methods for emerging technology that

may solve the future needs and issue• Scenario writing for future society

· Future prospect, needs/issues and technology · Internal consistency · Increase awareness the role of S&T in the knowledge-based society

• Offering of policy alternatives to promote knowledge-based innovative society

Time Horizon : up to year 2030Project : Duration : 2003.7 - 2004.12TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED: National – covering all S&T fields and the entire territory of Korea


3rd Korean TF : Procedures3rd Korean TF : Procedures

Future perspectives Needs and Issues of

society(4 actors-15 categories-43 subcategories

(Dec. 2003)

Future Technology Subjects and Delphi

SurveyAnalysis

(Aug. 2004)

Future Social Systems Scenario Building

(Dec. 2004)

1st phase 2nd Phase

3rd Phase


Korean TF : Sector Expert PanelsKorean TF : Sector Expert Panels

10 sectors (based on key words)• Space & earth

• Material & manufacturing

• Information and knowledge

• Food & bio-resource

• Life & health

• Energy & environment

• Safety & Securuty

• Social Infrastructure

• Management & innovation

• S&T and society/culture

Delphi Survey

Scenario

Provide List of Future

Technologies


Korean TF : ResultsKorean TF : Results

• Technology Foresight with socio-economic consideration (3rd Generation Foresight)

- Future perspectives, assessment of future needs & issues - Scenario writing on future social systems (education, labor, healthcare, safety)

• Identify 761 future technology subjects- 61% of them will realize between 2011-2015 - Korea is still lagging all future technology area

- Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area - Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years)

• Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general publicBook, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report

• Government took follow-up action quickly Future Strategic Technology


Future Strategic Technology InitiativeFuture Strategic Technology Initiative

• Government launches new project to identify emerging generic technologies at the national level based on 3rd Korean foresight results

• Critical attributes of national strategic technologyEmergingDisruptiveConvergingStrategic area where government should be involved


Priority Setting ProcedurePriority Setting Procedure

FutureStrategic

Tech.

3rd TechnologyForesight

Survey from Industrial &R&D Inst.

Overseas DB

Future Tech.Candidate DB

(KISTEP)

Survey &2nd Screening

1st Screening(Expert Panel)


Future Strategic Technology 21Future Strategic Technology 21

•Global observing system•Climate/weather forecasting•Marine territory management

•Digital convergence•Smart computing•Nano and functional material

•Cognitive science and humanoid robot •Culture contents •Regenerative

medicine

• Bio-safety & defense• Drug discovery & personalized medicine

• Bio-diversity and natural resources conservation

Public NeedQuality of Life

Economic Impact

• Ubiquitous civil infrastructure• Hazard ㆍ disaster forecast• Next generation nuclear energy and safety

• Clean and renewable energy

•Information security•Super efficient transportation•Bio-resource•Satellite•fusion


Technology Roadmapping in KoreaTechnology Roadmapping in Korea


Brief History of TRM in KoreaBrief History of TRM in Korea

• Public Sector– MOCIE

• Industrial Technology Roadmap 1st Phase(2000. 9~2001. 8), 2rd Phase(2001. 7~2002. 6), 3rd Phase(2003.

6~2004. 6), 4th Phase(2004. 10~2005. 9)Annually try the new indursty area(product) and update old ones.

– MOST• National Technology Roadmap(2002)

– MIC• u-IT839 (8 service, 3 infrastructure, 9 products)

• Private Sector– Samsung Electronics

• Customized TRM based on SRI-framework


NTRM : Approach

NTRM Head CouncilKISTEPProject Team

NSTC Office

Vision I Committee

Inter-Government Coordination

TaskForce

Vision IICommittee

Vision IIICommittee

Vision V Committee

TRM team A TRM team B TRM team C TRM team N………..

Vision IVCommittee

Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modifications Handle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approach

NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions and detailed TRM for chosen key technologies

Analysis of Industrial Need 5 visions 13 Directions 49 Strategic Product/Functions 99 Key Technologies NTRM


NTRM by 5 Visions

11Building an information-

knowledge-intelligence society

22 Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia

33 Advancing the E2 Frontier

44Upgrading the Value

of Major Industries of Korea Today

55 Improving National Safety and Prestige


Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society

Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT

service more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendly

Anytime, Anywhere,Any-device Communication

Innovation in Contents & Service

Ambient Intelligence


Anytime, Anywhere,Any-device

Communication Mobile & Wearable IT Device

Ubiquitous Network

Intelligent Computing

Digital Convergence

Innovation inContents &

Service

Ambient Intelligence

Intelligent Medical System

Intelligent Transport System

Intelligent Building/Home

Intelligent Home Appliance

Intelligent Robot

Intelligent Man-Machine Interface

Knowledge/Information Security

Business Service

E-Commerce

Contents

Bio-Diagnosis Technology

Display Technology

Intelligent Home Appliance Technology

Home Network Technology

MEMS Technology

Art Intelligent Technology

Culture Original Form Restore Technology

Cyber Communication Technology

Game Engine Technology

Digital Contents Authoring Technology

Movie/Video/Digital Media Standardization

Information Security Technology

Digital Information Design Technology

Information Search DBMS Technology

E-Finance Technology

E-marketplace Technology

Tera-bit Optical Communication Elements Technology

Digital Signal Processing Technology

Wire&Wireless Integration System Device Technology

High Density Storage Technology

Intelligent Network Technology

New Semiconductor Device Technology

Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology

High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology

Optical Internet Technology

Information-Knowledge-Intelligence

Society

Next Generation Information System Technology

S/W Standard/Design/Reuse

Digital Broadcasting Technology

Vision

Direction of

Development

Strategic products and

FunctionsKey Technologies


Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and Functions

Strategic ImportanceVery Low Low Middle High Very High

VeryLow

Low

Middle

High

VeryHigh

EconomicImpact

Intelligent Computing(765 billion $ in 2004)

E-Commerce(28.7 trillion $ in 2010)

Business Service(157 trillion won in 2010)

Knowledge/Information Security(30 billion $ from 2005)

Man-MachineInterface Intelligence

(Creating high-value-added,

Complex products

Intelligent Robot(17 billion $ in 2005

Intelligent Building/Home(15 trillion in 2010)

Intelligent Transport System(425 billion $ in 2015)

Intelligent Medical System(Creating new markets,reducing medical costs)

Digital Convergence(570 billion $ in 2004)

Ubiquitous Network(2.03 trillion $ in 2005))

Intelligent Home Appliance(360 billion $ in 2005)

Culture Contents(1.17 trillion $ in 2005)

Mobile & Wearable IT Device

(73.3 billion $ in 2005)

High

Middle

Potential for success

Low


High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile CommunicationHigh-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile Communication

2002

wideband CDMA modemnarrowband CDMA

modem

2012

High-speed packet modem

Tech

nolo

gy

2007

Pro

du

ct

QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code

Power control, Smart antenna, Interference, SDR

IP-based RANFixed ATM/IP

Network interworking(GW)

Cdma20001x EV systemCdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV

W-CDMA system/ HSDPA

Wireless IP core tech.(QoS, Handoff,Resource management)

Homogeneous network Integration

ALL-IP core network

DO/GPRS DO/DV/GPRS enhancements

Adhoc, Bluetooth PAN

HMI/Hot Spot system2G cellular system

4G mobile comm.

High-speed adaptive RAN

Active core network

IP-based RAN with smart antenna

high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps

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HighMedium

Low

Competitiveness of domestic technology

■ □▣

high low Importance

● basic research ⊙ international collaboration◎ applied research ○ Outsourcing

R&D strategy


Corporate Foresight: One Electronic Company Corporate Foresight: One Electronic Company

• AGTO : based in IBM GTO Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant to Industry

– Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to Create New Ones– Exponential and Threshold– How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses– Understand Customer Challenges

Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of Company

• Future Technology Center –Research Organization Sectoral Technology Forecasting

• Siemens : Picture of Future Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation


Good signal for FTAGood signal for FTA

• Each Ministry establishes a separate “Future Strategic Unit”• More private companies have involved in foresight activity• More article about Future Technologies on newspaper• A lot of debates underway on ‘vision 2030’ by the

government• Movement to form “National Strategic unit”• Start to open Foresight class in the graduate school…


ChallengesChallenges

• Due to legislation, it seems to be quite favorable situation to run TF in nation-wide in Korea

• But there are several things to be addressed.

• Capability to run TF (Facilitating)– Not many– Not enough experiences

• Methodological Competence– Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to use? Better

way to do?– What is the best combination of methods

• Impact on Policy making– Some, but not Clear yet


Dr. Byeongwon Park [email protected]

☎ 82 2 589 2931

Thank you

Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making

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