Missile Defense and South Korea: A proposed plan for the United States’ involvement

Should the U.S. set up a missile defense system in South Korea?

By Holly D’Anna

Overview of the Issue

North Korea biggest threat to South Korea for over half a century

North Korea has nuclear capabilities, but doesn’t necessarily pose immediate threat to the South

Recent events suggest US-led missile defense system in South Korea would not be ideal

To understand this policy decision, we need to look at the Korean conflict over the 57 years

The Korean War: Brief Overview

After Japan's defeat in World War II, Korea became a divided nation, the capitalist South supported by the United States and its Western allies and the communist North an ally of the Soviet Union.

Cold War tensions erupted into war 19501953: The fighting ended with a truce, not a treaty,

and settled little. Both sides are still technically at war with each other

A two-mile wide demilitarized zone continues to separate North and South Korea.

The U.S. has approx. 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea

Recent History of North-South Relations

Several land and sea border conflicts since armistice Each state wants to reunify the peninsula according to its own

terms and system of government. Deadly naval clashes occurred along the demarcation line in

1999, 2002 and 2009.“Sunshine policy” by South Korean president in late

1990s advocated greater communication between the two governments

2000: Kim Jong Il and Kim Dae-Jung held summit in Pyongyang, the first since the armistice in 1953

Agreed to reduce tensions and work towards reunification

2002: North Korea restarts nuclear development and withdraws from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

The North Korean Threat

July 2006: North Korea test-fired a number of short-range missiles and one Taepodong-2 long-range missile into the Sea of Japan (East Sea)

North Korea threatened to carry out an "annihilating" nuclear strike if its atomic facilities were pre-emptively hit by the United States.

May 2009: North Korea abandons armistice because the South chose to participate in the Proliferation Security Initiative Goal: to stop transport of nuclear weapons via ships DPRK: mechanism for war of aggression against them

Despite attempts at international negotiations, North Korea continues to produce nuclear weapons

U.S.-South Korean Relations

1954: Creation of U.S.-R.O.K. Mutual Defense Treaty, in which the United States agreed to help the Republic of Korea defend itself against external aggression.

U.S. going from leading to supporting role in South Korea

Since 1970s and 1980s, the consensus that defined the MDT has eroded, although relations are still strong

South Korea wants “self-reliant defense” as a long-term goal

U.S.-led Missile Defense System: Pros

Missile defense can further strengthen the goal of nonproliferation

Allies: ability to protect themselves against a nuclear threat without developing their own nuclear capabilities

Alternative option to immediate use of offensive weapons in times of conflict

Since it protects against attacks, could discourage attacks from occurring

Pros of U.S.-led missile defense systems are non-specific to the Korean conflict

U.S.-led Missile Defense System: Cons

Even if a missile defense system is successful, it would fuel an arms race between the North and the South North would always try to overcome the defense system with nuclear

advancementsBoth China and Russia oppose U.S.-led missile defense

system in Northeast AsiaWouldn’t protect South Korea from short-range missiles

coming from North Korea Currently, their biggest concern is the North’s development of long-

range missiles; this should also be our main concern as wellStrong U.S. alliances in South Korea and U.S. missile

defense in response to the North Korean threat could complicate our relations with Northeast Asia, particularly with China because they do not support our plan for missile defense in the region

Evolving Situation

Two weeks ago, North Korea shelled Yeonpyeong, said South provoked attack because shells from a military drill landed in North’s waters (first direct attack since armistice)

Last Sunday, U.S. and South Korea started joint military exercises; North Korea is furious and has threatened unpredictable consequences if their waters are invaded

KCNA: “The U.S. and the South Korean warmongers are escalating confrontation and tension through ceaseless moves to ignite a war, seriously disturbing peace and security on the Korean Peninsula”

Evolving Situation

Last night: Obama phone call to Chinese president Hu Jintao North Korea needs to stop its provocative behavior

China: "calm and rational response from all sides to prevent the deterioration of the fragile security situation” – from their state run news agency

Today, according to CNN, the South’s navy began live-fire drills in seas surrounding Korean peninsula (off all three coasts)

Involvement Options

1. The United States could set up a missile defense system in South Korea

o Could exacerbate the tense situation between the North and the South, as well as affect U.S. relations between other major powers in the area

2. The United States could refrain from setting up a missile defense system in South Korea

o This option could be for an indefinite amount of time or the near future while we wait for the current situation and the tension to dissipate

Recommended Plan (Option 2)

For now, hold off on missile defense system, especially since tensions on the Korean peninsula are particularly high

Even if tensions do not continue to escalate in the near future, the U.S. should consider its relations with China and Russia, among other countries, before considering the plan

If missile defense system is seen as reactionary to North Korea’s nuclear development or their recent actions, they might go on the defensive and could launch an attack