Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High …€¦ · 3.4 3.6 2000-01 2010-11 2020-21...

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Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates Through 2032

Demarée K. MichelauWestern Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)

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The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education - WICHE

An interstate compact formed 65 years ago

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WICHE’s Role in the Region

• Promotes access and excellence in higher education for all citizens of the West through:– Regional collaboration

– Resource sharing

– Sound public policy

– Innovation

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Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates

• Public and Private High School Graduates

–Nation

– Four Geographical Regions

– 50 States and DC

– First-time projections for Guam/Puerto Rico

• Public by Race/Ethnicity

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U.S. High School Graduates

• The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade

• The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population

• Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share

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Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, School Years 2000-01 to 2012-13 (Actual) through 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 2030-31

Mill

ion

s

3,466,8883,561,051

ACTUAL

PROJECTED

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U.S. Private High School Graduates, School Years 2000-01 to 2010-11 (Actual) through 2011-12 to 2031-32 (Projected)

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 2030-31

Tho

usa

nd

s

222,087

ACTUAL

PROJECTED

302,168

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Total U.S. Public High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity, School Years 2000-01 to 2012-13 (Actual) through 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Private

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

White

Hispanic

Black

Asian/Pacific Islander

2,569,200

3,169,2573,317,313

3,076,509

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Converging Populations, 2013-14 to 2031-32

Only showing race/ethnicity for public school graduates (90% of total graduates)

(52%)

(48%)

White

1,725

1,587

Non-White

1,624

1,496

1,100

1,350

1,600

1,850

2,100

2013-14 2016-17 2019-20 2022-23 2025-26 2028-29 2031-32

Tho

usa

nd

s

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United States High School Graduates by Race and Ethnicity, Compared to SY 2012-13 (Thousands)

White

Hispanic


Black

Private schools

-80

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2012-13 2018-19 2024-25 2030-31

Tho

usa

nd

s640 Hispanic184 Asian/Pac. Isl.32 Am. Ind./Alaska Native474 Black298 Private Schools1,839 White

-34-9

+58

+151

-252

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Significant Regional Variation

• The national projections mask

significant variation by region

and among the states.

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Regional Divisions

12

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Significant Regional VariationTotal Public and Private High School Graduates, 2000-01 to 2031-32

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 2030-31

Mill

ion

s

SOUTH

WEST

MIDWEST

NORTHEAST

1,352,600

862,000

776,820

647,036

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-75

-25

25

75

125

175

2012-13 2018-19 2024-25 2030-31

Tho

usa

nd

s

Southern Region High School Graduates

Compared to SY2012-13(Thousands)

Asian/Pacific IslanderPrivate schools

229 Hispanic39 Asian/Pac. Isl.12 Am. Ind./Alaska Native268 Black96 Private Schools590 White

Private schools

+137K

+99K

-46K-41K

-22K

-5K

+31K

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Western Region High School Graduates


-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

2012-13 2018-19 2024-25 2030-31

Tho

usa

nd

s


+65K

-39K

-37K

-14K

+3K

-4K+2K

-8K

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Midwestern Region High School GraduatesCompared to SY2012-13

(Thousands)

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2012-13 2018-19 2024-25 2030-31

BlackAsian/Pacific Islander

Private schools


Tho

usa

nd

s

+39K

+22K

-75K-82K

-17K

-9K

+12K

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-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2012-13 2018-19 2024-25 2030-31

Tho

usa

nd

s

Northeastern Region High School Graduates



Hispanic


Private schools

Hispanic

Black


Private schools


Tho

usa

nd

s

+45K+35K

+17K

-10K

-25K

-94K

-60K

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Top 10 States with a Majority of U.S. High School Graduates

In 2013 From 2013 to 2025 From 2025 to 2032

CA 456,000 -25,000 -5% -37,000 -9%

TX 314,000 61,000 19% -6,000 -2%

NY 212,000 2,000 1% -14,000 -7%

FL 176,000 17,000 10% -16,000 -8%

IL 153,000 -10,000 -7% -18,000 -13%

PA 146,000 -6,000 -4% -8,000 -6%

OH 135,000 -16,000 -12% -9,000 -8%

MI 111,000 -14,000 -13% -10,000 -10%

NJ 109,000 -6,000 -6% -12,000 -12%

NC 101,000 9,000 9% -8,000 -7%

See pp. 22-23, 28-29 and Appendix A Data Tables of Knocking full report

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See Knocking pages 20-23 for Top 10 States & state annual change.

State Variation in Percent Change of High School Graduates, 2013- 2025

Nation: 4.7%

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See Knocking pages 20-23 for Top 10 States & state annual change.

State Variation in Percent Change of High School Graduates, 2013-2030

Nation: -4.0%

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www.knocking.wiche.edu

Report Download DataState Profiles

http://www.knocking.wiche.edu/

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Implications

Kent Rinehart

Assistant Vice President for Enrollment Management/Dean of Admission

Marist College (New York)

Janet Marling

Vice President for Student AffairsUniversity of North Georgia (Georgia)

Brenda Poznanski

Director of School Counseling and AdmissionBishop Guertin High School (New Hampshire)

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Want to Learn More?

www.wiche.edu/knocking

Demarée K. Michelau

Vice President, Policy Analysis and Research

303.541.0223

[email protected]

#knocking2016

http://www.wiche.edu/knocking

mailto:[email protected]

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High …€¦ · 3.4 3.6 2000-01 2010-11 2020-21...

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