KDD Analytics 2014 - Experts in Marketing Analytics

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KDD Analytics provides expertise in marketing predictive analytics and insightful dashboards for management striving for better data driven solutions. KDD is pioneering the use of ai-one's Analyst Toolbox for conversion of unstructured text documents into exciting BI visualizations.

Transcript of KDD Analytics 2014 - Experts in Marketing Analytics

  • 1. An introduction to subtitle style Click to edit Masterour capabilities v1.2 www.kddanalytics.com

2. Who are we? A team of statisticians, economists, business and industry subject matter experts; Specialists in database marketing analytics (market sizing; market simulation; segmentation; predictive prospect, campaign and churn scoring; etc), with extensive experience in the B2B space; Data junkies who love to get their hands dirty integrating, cleaning, modeling and visualizing client and 3rd party databases; Experienced professionals with particularly deep experience in the telecom, IT and energy industries. www.kddanalytics.com 3. Who do we serve? Our clients range from large providers of B2B marketing data to small consulting groups; We typically wholesale our services but can and have worked directly with end users.www.kddanalytics.com 4. What do we do? Simply put, we help you help your clients make more informed decisions via data analytics: Statistical ModelingData Modeling Market SizingProspect/Campaign ScoringMarket SimulationCustomer Churn Scoring ForecastingCross pollinationMarket Opportunity MappingSegmentationData IntegrationSurvey Sample DesignCustomer Profiling Data VisualizationDemand/Price Elasticity EstimationWhat do we know?www.kddanalytics.comHow can we organize it?Can we predict what will happen? 5. Statistical Modeling Predictive modeling is all about finding more of those you wish to find.Scoring Best customersWhat you want to findChurnersModelingBuyers Responders CompetitorsAttributesUsing model identifies more prospects than using no model = liftwww.kddanalytics.comTarget Target Population PopulationTarget list scored from most likely prospect to least.ID 105343236 138021163 147116482 201002390 101047263 202075210 123136008 105639354 106080974 111180060 134079517 144439822 207068360 114185643 124073515 143104099 138019692 134110988 144390826 132020465 134107700 120017332 141080328 133209000 136196993 144430916 118052109 110296359 207093595 207057547PERCENTILE 6 8 16 17 19 19 19 21 24 24 28 29 36 37 37 40 40 46 49 57 62 71 73 74 75 77 81 84 86 97 6. Statistical Modeling Churn LikelihoodCustomer Churn0.60 Median TenureChurn ProbabilityInternal Validation - Lift Analysis 3.50Cum LiftLiftBaseline3.00Top decile 2.3 times average predicted churn potentialLift2.50 2.00FULL0.50CAREBDMPAMMean Tenure0.400.300.200.100.00 01.5010002000300040005000Tenure (days)1.00External Validation - Lift Analysis0.50 0.00 3.00 12342.505Cum Lift67Decile9Baseline10Top decile 1.6 times average predicted churn potential2.00 LiftLift81.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 123www.kddanalytics.com456Decile78910Models should be validated on data external to the modeling sample; such as the ~1,400 additional accounts which churned in the month following the model build.6000 7. Statistical Modeling Customer segmentation can be Customer segmentation made actionable by enhancing enhanced with with opportunity mapping opportunity mapping.SegmentationSegment 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Total SegmentsCustomers (sites)PercentMarket (CiTDB)Percent Penetration Segment4044.1%33,3620.9%381 374 327 259 608 444 404 378 367 270 227 454 400 366 285 285 235 197 195 173 169 151 9,780 7,3533.9% 3.8% 3.3% 2.6% 6.2% 4.5% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 2.8% 2.3% 4.6% 4.1% 3.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 100.0%92,016 40,582 52,166 55,559 119,341 104,702 96,113 135,668 11,703 49,856 119,048 143,270 190,813 232,119 16,929 88,629 83,420 24,242 27,189 59,592 6,974 79,154 3,593,931 1,862,4472.6% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 3.3% 2.9% 2.7% 3.8% 0.3% 1.4% 3.3% 4.0% 5.3% 6.5% 0.5% 2.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.8% 1.7% 0.2% 2.2% 100.0%www.kddanalytics.com1.2%10.4% 2 0.9% 3 0.6% 4 0.5% 5 0.5% 6 0.4% 7 0.4% 8 0.3% 9 3.1% 10 0.5% 11 0.2% 12 0.3% 13 0.2% 14 0.2% 15 1.7% 16 0.3% 17 0.3% 18 0.8% 19 0.7% 20 0.3% 21 2.4% 22 0.2% 23 0.3% Total 0.4% SegmentsAverage IT Spend per Employee: CustomersTotal IT Spend ($M): Customers $18 $$ 16 $ 58 $ 51 $ 32 $ 62 $ 59 $ 7 $ 18 $Average IT 232 Spend (Gap) $ 97 $ 179 $ 104 $ 13 $ 13 $ 351 $ 145 $ 77 $ 41 $ 124 $ 19 $ 806 $ Average 14 $ 5,147 $ 2,536$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $Average IT Spend per Employee: NonCustomersTotal IT Spend ($M): NonCustomers1,367 $ 1,535 $ 5,293 $ 4,658 $ 4,582 $ 3,304 $ 4,583 $ 571 $ 1,539 $ 3,492 $ 13,180 $ 27,050 $ High 6,168 $ Spend/Low 938 $ 1,158 $ Penetration 6,207 $ 15,373 $ 8,721 $ 1,044 $ 24,045 $ 3,298 $ 24,558 $ 2,831 $ 4,647 $ 6,460 $Low Spend/Low Penetration836 $ 2,379 3,825 4,065 4,112 7,716 6,880 1,391 3,853 12 6,787 9,447 35,355 13,294 3,453 5,600 17 11,710 23,923 12,574 3,986 9,523 4,056 24,195 18 3,864 507,689 13 202,824 211,331$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 11 $ $ $ $ $ $ 75 $ 61,652 5,271 4,164 4,334 3,228 4,151 776 1,538 3,413 20 11,408 21,043 4,044 855 1,249 3,730 14,720 6,504 919 19,618 3,176 19,278 2,355 4,110 4 4,50122High Spend/High Penetration3 1623 15 9 142 8Average19110Low Spend/High Penetration Market Penetration 8. Statistical Modeling Time series and econometric forecast modeling.Forecasting Non-Dynamic Simulation: 3 AR Model Average 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00Risk Signature0.80 0.60100%44,000,00090%43,000,00080%0.40 0.2070%42,000,00060%11 /6 /2 2/ 005 6/ 2 5/ 006 6/ 2 8/ 006 6/ 11 2 00 /6 6 /2 2/ 006 6/ 2 5/ 007 6/ 2 8/ 007 6/ 11 2 00 /6 7 /2 2/ 007 6/ 2 5/ 008 6/ 2 8/ 008 6/ 11 2 00 /6 8 /2 2/ 008 6/ 2 5/ 009 6/ 2 8/ 009 6/ 11 2 00 /6 9 /2 2/ 009 6/ 2 5/ 010 6/ 2 8/ 010 6/ 11 2 01 /6 0 /2 2/ 010 6/ 20 110.0041,000,00050%Hold Out Test (18 Months)40,000,000Actual32,000,000Average Predicted39,000,000MIN LC40%MAX UC30%31,000,00038,000,00020% 30,000,00037,000,000 2014Q118_F_ARIMA(114) 18_F_LOG_ARIMA(112) 18_F_LOG_ARIMA(214) 12_F_ARIMA(214) 12_F_LOG_ARIMA(110) 6_F_LOG_ARIMA(211) 6_F_LOG_ARIMA(114)_GARCH(01)10%2014Q32015Q1 2015Q3 29,000,0002016Q12016Q3 0% 2 S.E.20 11 Q 20 4 12 Q 20 2 12 Q 20 4 13 Q 20 2 13 Q 20 4 14 Q 20 2 14 Q 20 4 15 Q 20 2 15 Q 20 4 16 Q 20 2 16 Q 20 4 17 Q 20 2 17 Q 20 4 18 Q 20 2 18 Q 20 4 19 Q 20 2 19 Q 20 4 20 Q 20 2 20 Q 20 4 21 Q 20 2 21 Q 20 4 22 Q 20 2 22 Q 4CRAF_FC 28,000,000Actual27,000,00018_F_ARIMA(114) 18_F_LOG_ARIMA(112)26,000,00018_F_LOG_ARIMA(214)20 11 Q 320 11 Q 220 11 Q 120 10 Q 420 10 Q 320 10 Q 220 10 Q 120 09 Q 420 09 Q 320 09 Q 2www.kddanalytics.com20 09 Q 125,000,000 9. Statistical Modeling Survey sample designwww.kddanalytics.com280 cell design to yield representative sample of US business sites with overall 1.3% sampling error. 10. Data Modeling Data Integration to eliminate database whitespace or append a new field, such as sales revenue or IT spend, to a particular business site or customer.Industry Analyst ReportsPrivate 3rd Party DataCommerce Dept.Govt Agency Budget ReportsCensus Dept. Bureau Labor Stats10K ReportsFactors (e.g. $/employee)Client Customer or Marketing Database www.kddanalytics.com 11. Data Modeling Market Sizing 2008Market size + Customer Sales => Market Gap (how many $ left on the table)Market Potential Total Spend (m)AccountsSpend per AccountAgriculture Education Education Other F-I-RE$9,744703,477$$9,993135,989$73,485$21,469175,066$122,636$68,6951,527,733$Health Services$21,173932,780$Health Services Other Manufacturing Manufacturing Other Mining/Construction Public Administration Retail Services Other Services-Personal Transportation/Telecom Wholesale$7,42926,686$278,398$31,836803,147$39,639$3,391$23,622$24,263Total$$58,709$129,777$78,797$25,721$32,207546,82813,85244,966200834,903 $ Agriculture 1,509,277 $ Education 293,066 $ Education Other 2,965,485 $ F-I-RE 1,480,184 Services Health $22,698Client Bookings (m)Client Share97,154$9,744$7515,651$9,993$2502.5%82,790$21,469$2000.9%19,797$68,695$6,8009.9%87,676$21,173$3,00014.2%Other 18,045$7,429$5757.7%737,019 $ 34,899 Manufacturing 866,932 $ Manufacturing Other 37,151 16,558,534 $ Mining/Construction 33,024$31,836$$3,391$$23,622$$24,263$$58,709$$129,777$$78,797$$25,721$$32,207$4,366,790 Services Health $Public Administration Retail Services Other Services-Personal Transportation/Telecom Wholesale Totalwww.kddanalytics.comMarket Size (m)$546,828$1,200 F-I-RE0.8%AccountsGap Value (m)Value per Account3,636 $23,503$2,360 $10,375$4,395,40912.3%2,679 $3,435$1,282,04249.5%5,605 $6,388$1,139,6166,042 $6,500$1,075,78710,000 Manufacturing Other 7.7%2,173 $1,746$803,3418,000 Public Administration 10.2%5,956 $3,879$651,28244.7%36,961 $13,051$353,0978.5%10,735 $2,742$255,38764,500 Wholesale 11.8% Mining/Construction Education Other Services-Personal Agriculture Retail Total6,654 $1,546$232,3776,714 $1,362$202,82216,407 $2,713$165,36219,466 $2,569$131,9581,571 $153$97,14133,408 $627$18,7583.8%250 Transportation/Telecom 7.4% 2,900 Services Other 12,000 Education5,000 Health Services Other 8.5%11,500 Manufacturing 2,750 Health Services160,369 $80,588$6,464,684502,515 12. Data Modeling Market Simulationwww.kddanalytics.comExcel based models allowing user to conduct what if analyses by changing values of model parameters. 13. Data Modeling Data Visualizationwww.kddanalytics.comInteractive Tableau dashboardssee www.kddanalytics.com 14. Data Modeling KDD MarketPointwww.kddanalytics.comSegmentation and prioritization Segmentation and prioritization solution driven by: solution driven by: * Clients customer data data * Clients customer * 3rd party enrichment data * 3rd party enrichment * KDDdata Analytics * KDD Analytics Three components: * MP Profile => What? Three components: * MP Opportunity => Where? * MarketPoint Profile => What? * MP Prospect => Who? * MarketPoint Opportunity => Deliverables Where? * Static and interactive => * MarketPoint Prospect dashboards/Excel workbooks Who? * Scored and ranked prospecting lists Deliverables * Static and interactive See www.kddanalytics.com. dashboards/Excel workbooks * Scored and ranked prospecting lists 15. Contact Info Let us know how we can help you: [email protected] www.kddanalytics.comwww.kddanalytics.com