KBDS & DRAMA

8/10/2019 KBDS & DRAMA

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ECOSSE mtg, Edinburgh Apr09© R. Bañares-AlcántaraUniversity of Oxford

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Revisiting Decision Rationale

RenéBañares-Alcántara

Reader, Department of Engineering ScienceSenior Engineering Fellow, New College

University of Oxford

[email protected]




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Contents

1. Some history …

2. Revision and extension of ECOSSE ideas

3. Compendium

4. Extensions to Compendium

• options vs. criteria matrix• global parameters

• sensitivity analysis

5. Decision support (not only rationale)

• ELECTRE-III method and preferences

• access to the web

6. Future work: ontologies for semantic consistency




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Artefact = network of decisions

INTENT

RATIONALE ARTEFACT

DECISION n

DECISION 2

DECISION 1

objectives, goals,

specifications,

constraints

alternatives / options

(structure & models)

justifications




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KBDS




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DRAMA (QuantiSci L td)




• HDA process, continuous with single product

• HF, steady state rigorous model in ASPEN Plus

• acetates, methyl acetate and its re-use for the design ofethyl, isopropyl and propyl acetates

• penicillin, discontinuous biotechnological process

• urban WWTP, continuous biotechnological

• fuel reprocessing plants (BNFL)

• electricity generation plants (British Electricity)• storage tank farm (Shell Oil)

• decision-making and corporate memory (Norsk Hydro)

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KBDS and DRAMA applications

(academic and industr ial)




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Current effor ts at Oxford (OXF & OBU)

INTENT

RATIONALE ARTEFACT

DECISION n

DECISION 2

DECISION 1

MCDM (Electre)

Modified IBIS

(extended Compendium)

Ontologies

(Reasoners, rules and NL)




Compendium is an

– an open source,

– Java-based,

– dialogue mapping

software developed by the Compendium Institute (OpenUniversity), see http://compendium.open.ac.uk/institute/

Compendium is a tool to organise ideas, images, texts,websites, emails, …

“ … it is like MindManager on steroids …”

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Compendium

http://compendium.open.ac.uk/institute/

http://compendium.open.ac.uk/institute/




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Original functional ity in Compendium




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Compendium + : Options vs. Criter ia




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Compendium + : cri ter ia created by users




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Compendium + : global parameters




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Compendium + : sensitivity analysis

Does a change in the value of a Global parameter affect previous decisions?




Multi Criteria Decision Methods (MCDMs ) support decision

makers choose among a set of (discrete and exclusive)alternat ive op tions based on their compliance withrespect to a set of cr i ter ia .

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Decision support: MCDMs

• deterministic• stochastic

• fuzzy

• single decision maker• group decision makers

• single dimensional• multi dimensional




1. Determine alternatives and cr i ter ia .

2. Assign weights (relative importance) to the criteria andevaluate the impacts of the criteria on the alternatives.

3. Process the resulting matrix to determine a ranking for

each alternative.

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General Procedure of MCDMs




• Weighted Sum Model (WSM)

• Weighted Product Model (WPM)

• Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

revised version [Belton&Gear 83]

• ELECTRE (I, II, III, IV, IS, TRI)(ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la Realité;

ELimination and Choice Expressing Reality) [Roy 68]

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MCDM methods

normalised by the

maximum value




1. Normalise the Decision Matrix.

2. Weight the Normalised Decision Matrix.

3. Calculate the Concordance and Discordance sets.

4. Construct the Concordance and Discordance Matrices(elements are concordance indexes).

5. Determine the Concordance and Discordance DominanceMatrices.

6. Determine the Aggregate Dominance Matrix.

7. Generate a partial preference ordering of the alternatives.

Outranking relat ions (comparing each pair of alternatives)

Veto th resho lds

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ELECTRE methods




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Where to locate a business? [Belton& Stewart ]




helping the user selecting the threshold values




ELECTRE I I I : partial order




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Access to the web




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Access to the web (2)




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Access to the web (3)




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One of the “selling points” of our approach is the flexibility to

declare issues , alternatives , cr i ter ia and variables withany name and meaning.

However,

• alternatives should be related to the associated i ssue ,• cri ter ia should be related to the declared goals ,

• variables should be linked to the measured cr i ter ia , …

We plan to use onto logies to represent the semantics

(meaning) or each of these concepts {Protégé}, check their

consistency {1st order logic: PELLET}, and perhaps even

suggest “what to do next” {rules: JESS}.

Ontologies for semantic consistency




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1. Policy making

– Renewable Energy {PhD: Julian} – Biofuels and food security {MSc: Minerva}

1. Cquestrate project {Araz}

http://www.cquestrate.com/

(partly funded by Shell’s

GameChanger project)

3. Ontologies {MSc: Krishna}

Application areas






• KBDS and DRAMA live on!

• we are adapting their ideas and extending Compendiumto

– support decision making (on top of maintaining decision rationale)

– provide additional functionalities

– apply it in other decision-making scenarios, e.g. policy, energy

The work is being done in conjunction with the group of Dr. Arantza Aldea at the Department of Computing, Oxford

Brookes University

– Simon Skryzpczak

– John Hedges

– Krishna Sapotka 26

Conclusions and Acknowledgements




… but just as important, it could not have been done without

the ideas, effort and support of ECOSSE people:

• Geoff

• Josh

• Rama• Neal

• Bill + the QuantiSci team

and

• Jack

Thanks

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Conclusions and Acknowledgements




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Ontologies & applications workshop (15OCT08)© R. Bañares-AlcántaraUniversity of Oxford

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The policy process

Setting theagenda

Problemdefinition

Policydesign

Policyimplementation

Policyenforcement

Policyevaluation

Record

(biofuels / food security)

Formulation

(transport and energy)

Regulation

(pharmaceutical processes)




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Objective 1:

Objective 2: Do it in a semantically explicit, tool independent and flexible

fashion

Process

Regulation

TaskProof

DocumentCompliancematch

parse

generateensure

Objectives of the research

Show that an ontology knowledge base

can be applied to

the pharmaceutical process and regulation domains in order to

facilitate the management of regulatory compliance




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Developer

Ontology Environment:Protégé – OWL 3.4

DL Reasoner:

Pellet 1.5.2

Software Language:

Java 5.0 (Eclipse)

K n o w l e d g e

L a y e r

I n f e r e n c e L a y e

r

I n t e g r a t i o n L a y e r

Rule Engine:

Jess 7.1

TBox

ABox

1)Classify class hierarchy

2)Report noncompliant indiv.Fire rules and modify the

individuals respectively

OntoReg archi tecture




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Artefact = network of decisions



ECOSSE mtg Edinburgh Apr09© R Bañares-Alcántara

[Amsterdam][Paris]

[London]

[Brussels, Milan]

[Berlin][Warsaw]

[Amsterdam]

[Paris][London, Milan]

[Berlin]

[Warsaw, Brussels]

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Where to locate a business?

[Amsterdam]

[Paris]

[London][Milan]

[Brussels, Berlin]

[Warsaw]

Descending order Ascending order

Partial order (intersection)

KBDS & DRAMA

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