KBC Morning Sunrise Market Commentary 09-02-2011

8/4/2019 KBC Morning Sunrise Market Commentary 09-02-2011

1/10

Sunrise Market CommentaryFrom KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 1

Friday, 02 September 2011

Global bonds profit from risk off day

Good gains for global core bonds on a daily basis, but still in a sideways trading range longer term. Payrolls will get muchattention, but we expect the sideways range to hold for now.

Dollar succeeds cautious comeback, euro slips.

On Thursday, the correction in EUR/USD continued. Investors turned more cautious on risk and this supported the dollar.The test of the topside in EUR/GBP has been rejected, too. The dollar might remain well bid even in case of disappoint-ing payrolls.

News & Calendar: US manufacturing sector stays out of recession

Sunrise Headlines

US Equities reversed early gains on Thursday as a closer look at the ISM showedunderlying weakness, raising fears for a disappointing payrolls report today. TheS&P lost 1.19% led by financials. This morning, also Asian shares trade lower.

Greece is likely to miss its budget-deficit targets this year in the face of a deepeconomic contraction that is turning out to be even more severe that forecast, gov-ernment officials said yesterday. The missed budget targets and the impact of theharsh austerity measures will be at the centre of talks with EU and IMF representa-tives this week and next.

The agency that oversees US mortgage markets is preparing to file suit againstmore than a dozen big banks, accusing them of misrepresenting the quality ofmortgages they packed and sold during the housing bubble, the New York Timesreported yesterday.

Inflation in Europe is set to decline significantly next year, while the global

growth outlook has dimmed considerably, ECBs Nowotny said yesterday addingthey assume to find themselves much closer to the target area that the ECB de-fines as price stability.

Major oil and gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico shut down offshore plat-forms and evacuated workers ahead of a storm brewing offshore that was ex-pected to bring flooding to Louisiana over the weekend. Nevertheless, oil pricesdropped slightly yesterday falling to levels around $114/barrel.

Yoshihiko Noda, Japans new prime minister, has appointed a first cabinet thatputs younger and relatively unknown members of his ruling Democratic party intosome key positions.

Today, all eyes are on the payrolls report in the US. On Monday, US markets areclosed in observance of Labour Day holiday.

S&P

Eurostoxx50

Nikkei

Oil CRB

Gold

2 yr US

10 yr US

2 yr EMU

10 yr EMU

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

EUR/GBP


2/10

Sunrise Market Commentary



Markets: Fixed Income

On Thursday, the yo-yo continued with now a risk-off day closing with stronggains for bonds and moderate losses for equities, who were also hit by a gov-ernment lawsuit against major banks regarding mortgage practices. US bondyields (excluding short end)-fell by 7 to 10.7 bps, flattening the curve. Germanyields fell by 5 to 8.3 bps, the very long end underperforming.

A better-than-expected, but still weak, ISM was unable to support equities for morethan a few minutes, as a spike was met by selling. An inverse reaction for bonds thatplunged sharply, but immediately started to rally, closing the session at the highs ofthe day and with juicy gains. The market focussed on the underlying data of the ISM,orders and employment both weak, and positioned ahead of the payrolls. There wasmore gloomy news yesterday. The US government lowered the growth estimates for2011 and 2012. In the EMU area, the PMIs were sharply revised lower. Overall, it

looks as if markets are still waiting on the next big event to choose direction. Themoves of the last two weeks, rebound in equities and sideways trading in bonds, aremore technically inspired. Only after the return of the US traders on Tuesday, holi-day trading will be over, volumes might increase and price action may give more in-formation on markets sentiment. However, first we still get the payrolls. .

Peripheral yield spreads versus Germany widened yesterday, with the exception ofthe Portuguese spread which narrowed by 17 bps, still in the aftermath of the far-reaching structural reforms and commitments on debt levels the Portuguese gov-ernment announced on Wednesday. Spanish and Italian bond markets are still artifi-cially kept alive by the ECB, but the Italian 10-year yield is slowly creeping awayfrom the 5%-level. The economic data from EMU countries were of no help for mar-ket sentiment as practically all PMIs came out at sub-50 levels and below expecta-tions (see news section). A source close to the EU and IMF has told ReutersGreece is likely to miss its budget targets for this year, but that it's too early toknow whether the next EU/IMF aid tranche is at risk. The troika began reviewingGreeces progress on budget goals this week to decide whether the next aid tranche

will be released, and talks are now underway. The current estimate is that the deficitwill be 8.6% of GDP, not the target rate of 7.6%. A variety of factors is cited, includ-ing weak tax collections, the size of the recession and delays in reforms. Inspectorsalso reportedly doubt that Greece can meet its privatization targets. June all overagain?

Sept Note future (black) & S&P future (orange) (intra-day): Risk offday triggered by equity weakness ahead of payrolls and despite

better-than-expected ISM.

S&P: couldnt hold on above key support. Payrolls may teach usmore about underlying sentiment

DE yield -1d2 0,6350 -0,0950

1 ,2 00 0 -0 ,13 1010 2,1210 -0,119030 3,0100 -0,0920

US yield -1d2 0 1878 -0 01175 0 9118 -0 046510 2,1407 -0,084530 3,5093 -0,0932


3/10




A government official responded to the story and acknowledges the shortfall, but putthe Greek deficit in the range of 8.1%-8.2% of GDP this year well below the ru-moured IMF deficit estimate. Greece argues that the bulk of the miss on the deficit

ratio is due to a bigger then expected contraction in the economy, while the inspec-tors attribute only about 1/4 of the miss to the economy, the rest to missing othertargets in the fiscal plan. Earlier on the day, the Greek Finance Ministry rejected theview of parliamentary experts that Greek debt dynamics are out of control and thatpolicies to deal with the debt crisis are failing. An Irish government-funded researchbody lowered the 2011 and 2012 GDP forecast respectively from 2% to 1.8% andfrom 3% to 2.3%, reflecting the impact of the downturn in global demand of the ex-port-led Irish economy

Today, all eyes are on the US payrolls report. In July, growth in non-farm payrollspicked up from 46 000 in June to 117 000, but is forecasted to slow again to 68 000in August. The Verizon strike should drop 45 000 people off the payrolls and manu-facturing payrolls are forecasted to come out flat. In July less than normal auto facto-

ries had a shutdown period and therefore the usual August boost will also be moremoderate. On top of that, most economic data were soft in August with most regional(and the ISM) business confidence indicators showing an easing in intentions to hire.In the previous week, expectations were already scaled back somewhat, but we be-lieve that a slightly lower outcome is still not excluded. The unemployment rate isforecasted to stay unchanged at 9.1% in August.

The Spanish debt agency issued a new 5-year Bono (3.61B 4.25% Oct2016),just over the middle of the intended 3B to 4B. Bid cover was 1.76. As for Italy onTuesday, it was a litmus test for investors appetite at the first auction since the ECBrestarted its SMP-programme to buy Spanish and Italian paper on the secondarymarket. And as was the case for Italy, Spain passed but without glance. TheSpanish auction was followed by more bond selling after which the ECB stepped up,daily routine these days, and intervened. The French treasury supplied the bondmarket for the first time since July 21. They auctioned the off the run 15-yearOAT (3.57B 5% Oct2016), the on-the run 10-year OAT (3.02B 3.25% Oct2021)and the on the run 30-year OAT (1.23B 4.50% Apr2041) for a total amount of 7.8Bclose to the top of the intended 6.5B to 8B range. The rather low target was lessthan any other auction combination earlier this year when demand was mostly lo-cated around 8B to 10B and reflected the cautiousness by which even AAA-ratedFrance acts in these uncertain times. Bid covers ranged between 1.8 and 2.3. De-mand was decent and more convincing than the Spanish auction but thats it. TheFinnish treasury sold 3B of a new 5-year RFGB (1.875% Apr2017) that yielded 31bps below swap and about 55 bps above German bonds (mostly liquidity premium).This was in the middle of the 30-32bps below swap whisper ahead of the syndica-tion.

We retain two comments of ECB governors. Austrian central banker, Nowotnysaid that inflation is set to decline significantly next year, while the global growth out-look has dimmed considerably. This stokes expectations that the ECB might down-grade its inflation risk assessment to balanced from upside, maybe already at theSeptember meeting when the ECB new Staff forecasts will be available. Of course,markets have already run ahead and discount lower ECB rates towards year end.Bundesbank president Weidmann said that trust in the ECB could be lost if it per-sists with crisis-fighting policies that go beyond its core role. The lines betweenmonetary and fiscal policy had been blurred as a result of the debt crisis. His viewsare not new, but they show that German opposition against bond buying has cer-tainly not diminished and might even increase if the policy is prolonged for long or ifthe ECB should have to up its buying in the market.

R2 136,84 -1dR1 136,41BUND 135,6 -6,6800S1 135,02S2 134 35

Technicals Sep Bund

The LT technical picture of the Bundis bullish.

On the downside, support stands at135.02/01 (S1, STMA/MTMA), at134.35 (S2, Bollinger mid-line), at134.18/17 (S2, current weeklow/weekly envelop) and at 133.88(S4, reaction low, KEY).

On the topside, resistance standsat 136.41 (R1, Bollinger top) at136.84 (R2, 26 Aug high, necklinedouble bottom hourly charts), and at136.26/29 (R3, new high/Bollingertop).

The contract is in neutral conditions.


4/10




Regarding trading, Global bonds showed a lot of sharp moves up and down thisweek, but are still perfectly in a sideways range. The payrolls have of course marketmoving potential. Recently, consensus expectations have been scaled down, from

about 100 000 at the end of last week to 68 000. Equity markets went up for fourdays, but lost again some ground yesterday, suggesting that expectations for astronger figure have also been scaled back. Regarding global core bonds, we dontexpect the payrolls to have a major impact, as bonds are well inside the tradingrange and support is sufficiently far away to absorb a very strong payrolls, while thetop side, the all time highs (yields below 2%) is probably also to tough to break. Theimpact of the long weekend might keep volumes modest. For equities a weak reportis negative, but hopes on more monetary easing may cushion the blow. Equities arealso well off the lows, meaning that also here the technical implications may be mod-est. A stronger report should be equity-positive and there is scope for a positivemove to be technically relevant, but also here we think markets will look for argu-ments to not fully embrace a good report.

Bund future (Sep): Uptrend still well in place, but currently in side-ways trading mode, digesting earlier gains. A loss of 133.88 is

needed to raise alert.

Dec T-Note future: Sideways range intact and unlikely payrollswill end the sideways trading yet.


5/10




Currencies: Dollar succeeds cautious comeback, euro slips.

On Thursday, the tentative downtrend of the EUR/USD cross rate that was alreadyvisible earlier this week, accelerated. On Wednesday, the euro somewhat surprisinglydeclined in a risk-on context, but yesterdays loss in EUR/USD was again driven by theusual market paradigm as it went hand in hand with a decline on the (European) eq-uity markets. The eco data were also mostly euro unfriendly. The final EMU PMIs ofthe manufacturing sector were subject to quite a sharp downward revision from thepreliminary release. In particular Italy, but also the German index came out materiallyweaker than expected. The Spanish 5-year bond auction received only mediocre in-vestor interest. This negative news flow pushed EUR/USD below the 1.43 mark. Thefirst key support level (1.4258) came in the picture. However, the decline slowed aheadof the start of US trading. The claims were close to expectations, but the ISM of themanufacturing sector sparked a positive surprise. The headline index unexpectedlyheld above the 50 mark. However, the gains in equities and also in EUR/USD werelimited and short-lived. EUR/USD tried to regain the 1.43 mark, but the rebound couldnot be sustained and pair tumbled to the set an intraday low in at 1.4227. The pairclosed the session at 1.4259 (19 August low, an important support level) compared to1.4369 on Wednesday. Looking at the price action in other cross rates, yesterdaysmove was for an important part due to US strength. However, all kinds of small sto-ries/rumours on Greece, the European banking sector and on the political bickering onthe implementation of the 21 July summit are also no help for the single currency.

Today, there is only one topic on the calendar that really matters for trading on globalmarkets: the US payrolls report. The consensus is expecting 68K job growth in theUS in August. The unemployment rate is expected stable at 9.1%. several statisticalissues are in play, but we put the risk for a weaker than expected report. This mightstrengthen the case of more Fed stimulus, but it would be a bit strange to expect apositive market reaction. In such a scenario, EUR/USD will probably extend its slide

south. The market reaction in case of a better than expected figure is less easy to pre-dict. Yesterdays market reaction suggests that investors are still cautious to buy intopositive, better than expected data. The market reaction on the payrolls might be dif-ferent. However, with US markets going into a long weekend, probably quite a big posi-tive surprised will be needed for investors to change their mind on risk and also theirEUR/USD strategy. So, we put the risk for the EUR/USD ST downtrend to continue.With respect to the EU side of the story, communication on the Greek bail-out and onthe broadening of the scope of the EFSF will probably remain as chaotic as it was oflate. No reason to rush to buy the single currency at the current level.

Global context. Since the EU summit on July 21, EUR/USD held within a remarkablytight sideways trading range. The outcome of the meeting was unable to prevent fur-ther contagion on the EMU government bond markets. On the contrary, Italy came alsoin the fire line. In theory, this should have been a negative factor for the euro. However,markets still saw a balance of weakness between the euro and the dollar as the newsflow from the US was also far from inspiring. Recently, eco data indicated that the USmight be at the brink of a double dip recession and the outcome of the US budget de-bate illustrated that US policymakers have no comprehensive plan to address the debtsituation. S&P downgrading the US AAA-credit rating reinforced this feeling andweighed on the dollar. The Fed committing to extend an extremely accommodative pol-icy at least until 2013 was also no help for the US currency. Since the 21 July EUSummit, EUR/USD hovered sideways in a range roughly between 1.4050 and 1.4500.Trading in the EUR/USD cross rate for a big part decoupled from the high level of vola-tility in most other markets. A series of high profile resistance levels was lining up (pre-vious highs at 1.4537, 1.4578 and at 1.4697). There was no high profile trigger to clearthis resistance. So, the pair is now drifting lower in the range. This process can go stillsomewhat further short-term. The first important support (1.4259) has been broken.

Then bottom of the range is market by the 1.4054/1.3837 lows.

R2 1,4315 -1dR1 1 4289EUR/USD 1 4257 -0 0099S1 1,4227S2 1,416

Technicals EUR/USD

Support comes in at 1.4227 (Re-action low), at 1.4163 (Daily Bollbottom), at 1.4103 (August 11low) and at 1.4055 (August 15low).

Resistance stands at 1.4289(reaction high hourly), at 1.4315(Reaction high hourly), at 1.4337(LTMA), at 1.4365/57(STMA/Daily Boll Midline + Dailyuptrend line since 1.3837) and at1.4390/96 (MTMA/Daily down-trend line since year high).

The pair is in neutral territory.


6/10




On Thursday, USD/JPY moved up and down in a sideways trading pattern between76.75 and 77.25. The dollar was rather well bid even as equities were losing groundin Europe. The pair reached a minor high in after the publication of the ISM, but inline with other markets, the gains could not be maintained. The pair closed the ses-sion at 76.93, compared 76.66 on Tuesday. The changes are still very small, but wehave the impression that the downside in this cross rate is becoming a bit better pro-tected.

This morning, Asian equities are mostly in negative territory. Japan Q2 capital spend-ing data showed an unexpected steep drop (7.8% Y/Y). USD/JPY is holding uprather well (above yesterdays intraday lows).

Of late, USD/JPY was under pressure mirroring both global dollar weakness whilethe yen continued to enjoy an ongoing safe haven bid. The BOJ makes clear that itstands ready to step in the market in case of further yen gains. However, this threatonly slows the rise of the yen, it is unable to really change the course of events. Wedont see a trigger to change the current framework for USD/JPY trading, especiallyas US monetary policy suggests ongoing global dollar weakness. Last week, the pairtried to move away from the lows. However, the move was reversed soon. So, theeyes are still on the BOJ/MOF. More erratic sideways trading in the 76/77 area mightbe on the cards. Over the previous days the downside pressure in this pair eased abit.

EUR/USD: correction continues

USD/JPY: stalemate persists

R2 78,06 -1dR1 77,24USD/JPY 76,823 -0,0070S1 76,74S2 75,94

Technicals USD/JPY

Support comes in at 76.74 (Reac-tion low hourly), at 76.43/29 (Reac-tion low/Daily downtrend line), at75.94/92 (Historic low/Weekly Bollbottom) and at 75.05 (Irr B).

Resistance is seen at 77.24 (Reac-tion high),at 77.33/47(LTMA/Weekly envelope) and at78.06 (38% Retracement since81.49).



7/10




On Thursday, the broader decline of the euro was also visible in the EUR/GBP crossrate. At the start of trading in Europe the pair was still seen in the 0.8850 area. How-ever, EUR/USD dropped below the recent lows and additional stop-loss selling alsohit the EUR/GBP cross rate. The eco data (PMIs) and the outcome of the Spanishauction added to the euro negative sentiment. The UK PMI of the manufacturing sec-tor was far from brilliant (49.0), but at least it didnt bring a big downward surprise.EUR/GBP tested bids in the 0.8800 area around noon, where some consolidationkicked in. Later in the session, EUR/USD and cable developed a similar trading pat-tern. In this respect, EUR/GBP avoided the post-ISM decline of EUR/USD. The pairclosed the session at 0.8813, compared to a close of 0.8843 on Wednesday.

Today, the UK PMI of the construction sector will be published. A small decline from53.2 to 53.5 is expected. We expect this report to be only of intraday importance forEUR/GBP trading. Trading will probably be inspired by technical considerations. TheST bias is south.

Global picture. The EUR/GBP cross rate reached a new high for 2011 at 0.9083

early July, but renewed uncertainty on how European policymakers would handle thespreading of the EMU debt crisis pushed EUR/GBP to the 0.8700 area. The 21 Julyagreement was no big support for the single currency as contagion also hit the Italianbond market. EUR/GBP reached a correction low at 0.8643 early August. However,the key 0.8611 level stayed out of reach. The ECB buying Italian and Spanish bondseased the tensions on the intra-EMU bond markets and the euro entered calmer wa-ters. Regarding the UK side of the story, there is still a decent chance that the BoEwill enlarge its program of asset purchases in case UK economic growth remainsweak. At least for now, the risk of more QE in the UK caps further gains of the UKcurrency. We have a LT EUR/GBP bullish view as we expect the BoE to keep its pol-icy loose for a prolonged period of time while the ECB is trying to bring its policy rateto a more normal level. This process might be delayed as the economic outlook isdeteriorating. Nevertheless, the different approach between the BoE and the ECBhasnt really changed. In this context, we still prefer a buy-on-dips strategy within the

0.8611/0.8886 trading range. The test of the topside is rejected. So, in a day-to-dayperspective, correction might have some further to go.

EUR/GBP: first test of 0.8886 resistance rejected

R2 0,8885 -1dR1 0,8832

EUR/GBP 0,8797 -0,0049S1 0,878S2 0,873

Technicals EUR/GBP

Support comes in at 0.8797/90(Reaction low/MTMA), at0.8783/77 (Daily Boll Mid-line/LTMA), at 0.8769 (Break-updaily), 0.8730 (Reaction lowhourly) and at 0.8697 (Reactionlow).

Resistance is seen at 0.8832/33(STMA/reaction high hourly), at0.8885/86 (Week high/10 Augusthigh + Daily Boll top), at0.8904/15 (Break-downdaily/62% Retracement) and at0.8957(weekly envelope)



8/10




News

US: manufacturing sector stays out of recessionThe manufacturing ISM for August provided us finally with some good news, sug-gesting that the sector stayed out of recession (at least for now). The headline indexdropped only marginally, from 50.9 to 50.6, while the consensus was looking for aplunge to 48.5. The details are less encouraging with production falling from 52.3 to48.6, below the 50 level and also new orders stayed in contraction territory, even ifthey picked up slightly from July (49.6 from 49.2). New export orders (50.5 from 54.0)and employment (51.8 from 53.5) weakened too, while backlog of orders (49.6 from49.2), supplier deliveries (50.6 from 50.4), inventories (52.3 from 49.3), customer in-ventories (46.5 from 44.0) and imports (55.5 from 53.5) improved compared to theprevious month. Upward price pressures eased further with prices paid falling from59.0 to 55.5. The manufacturing ISM suggests that the slowdown in growth isless dramatic than most had feared and offers some hope that the US econ-

omy might escape a new recession. However, after the sharp decline in theprevious month, the stabilization might be nothing more than a pause. Thepayrolls today should provide us with more information on the health of the USeconomy.

In the week ended the 27 th of August, US initial claims dropped from an upwardlyrevised 421 000 to 409 000, close to the consensus estimate of 410 000. The 4-week moving average, on the contrary, jumped somewhat higher, rising from 408500 to 410 250. The labour department added that there were no special factorsthat affected the claims last week and there was also no indication of influencefrom the Verizon strike.Continuing claims, which are reported with an extra weeklag surprised on the upside, but this was mainly due to a sharp upward revision inthe previous weeks data (to 3 753 000 from 3 641 000). In the week ended Augustthe 20th, continuing claims dropped by 18 000 to 3 735 000. The initial claims re-

main at rather low levels as the automotive industry is continuing to putdownward pressure on the seasonally adjusted claims, while claims increasedin the construction and services sector.

EMU: manufacturing PMI downwardly revised to 49

The final figure of euro zone manufacturing PMI surprised on the downside of ex-pectations, showing a downward revision compared to the first estimate. The head-line figure was downwardly adjusted from 49.7 to 49.0, while no revision was ex-pected. As the first estimate is based on 85% of the monthly replies, this indicatesthat sentiment weakened significantly further in the period between the firstand final estimate. National PMIs show that Germany, the Netherlands and Austriaheld just above the 50 benchmark level, while the manufacturing PMI contracted inIreland, France, Italy, Spain and Greece. Only the Irish manufacturing PMI rose

compared to July, but still remained in contraction territory. New orders fell in allcountries, but encouraging was that Greece saw new export orders rise at the fastestpace in over three years, while the index hit a three-month high in Ireland. Manufac-turing employment rose for the sixteenth successive month in August, but the rate of

job creation slowed. Especially worrying was that Germany saw new orders fallat the fastest rate of all countries, signalling that the euro zone can no longerrely on its growth engine.

Other: UK manufacturing contracts further in Q3

In August, UK manufacturing PMI dropped from an upwardly revised 49.4 to 49.0,in line with expectations. New export orders were extremely weak, falling 7.3 pointsto sit firmly in contraction, suggesting that further weakness may lay ahead. Morediscouraging were the employment figures, suggesting that manufacturers look set to

cut staff levels at an increasing rate in the coming months as weak demand leads tocost-cutting. Markit added that the data should be treated with caution due to the dif-ficulty of accurately estimating the impact of the holiday. After contracting alreadyin the April to June period, the PMIs suggest that the manufacturing sectorwill probably continue to act as a further drag on growth over the third quarter.


9/10




Calendar

Friday, 2 September Consensus PreviousUS14:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (AUG) 70K 117K14:30 Change in Private Payrolls (AUG) 100K 154K14:30 Unemployment Rate (AUG) 9.1% 9.1%14:30 Avg Hourly Earning All Emp MoM YoY (AUG) 0.2% / 2.2% 0.4% / 2.3%14:30 Avg Weekly Hours All Employees (AUG)ec o 34.3 34.3Japan01:50 Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG) A 15.9% 15.0%01:50 Capital Spending excl Sftwre (2Q) A -8.2% 4.2%01:50 Capital Spending (2Q) A -7.8% 3.3%UK10:30 PMI Construction (AUG) 53.2 53.5EMU11:00 PPI (MoM) (YoY) (JUL) 0.5% / 6.1% 0.0% / 5.9%Spain

09:00 Unemployment MoM Net (000s) (AUG) 75.0 -42.1Norway09:00 Unemployment Rate (AUG) 2.8% 2.8%Events10:00 Spanish Parliament votes on Constitutional amendment on Budget discipline17:00 Germanys Merkel attends campaign events before Sep 4 state elections

10- ear td - 1d 2 - ear td - 1d STOCKS - 1dUS 2,14 -0,08 US 0,19 -0,01 DOW 11493,72 -120,04DE 2,12 -0,12 DE 0,64 -0,10 NASDAQ 0,00 0,00BE 4,02 -0,04 BE 2,03 -0,01 NIKKEI 8950,74 -110,06UK 2,55 -0,07 UK 0,53 -0,01 DAX 5730,63 -54,22JP 1,06 0,01 JP 0,19 0,00 DJ euro-50 2305,75 3,67

IRS EUR USD (3M) GBP Eonia 0,88 -0,073 1,623 0,622 1,403 Euribor-1 1,35 0,00 Libor-1 0,660 0,005 2,073 1,194 1,870 Euribor-3 1,54 0,00 Libor-3 0,888 0,0010 2,763 2,306 2,875 Euribor-6 1,75 0,00 Libor-6 1,174 0,00

Currencies - 1d Currencies - 1d Commodities CRB GOLD BRENT

EUR/USD 1,4257 -0,0099 EUR/JPY 109,51 -0,78 340,65 1829,09 113,97USD/JPY 76,823 -0,01 EUR/GBP 0,8797 -0,0049 - 1d -1,92 11,60 -0,99GBP/USD 1,6199 -0,0023 EUR/CHF 1,129 -0,0265

AUD/USD 1,0704 -0,0001 EUR/SEK 9,1228 0,01USD/CAD 0,9765 -0,0008 EUR/NOK 7,6947 0,00


10/10




Brussels Research (KBC) Global Sales Force

Piet Lammens +32 2 417 59 41

Peter Wuyts +32 2 417 32 35 Brussels

Didier Hanesse +32 2 417 59 43 Corporate Desk +32 2 417 45 82

Joke Mertens +32 2 417 30 59 Commercial Desk +32 2 417 53 23

Mathias Van der Jeugt +32 2 417 51 94 Institutional Desk +32 2 417 46 25

Dublin Research (KBC Bank Ireland)

Austin Hughes +353 1 6646892 London +44 207 256 4848

Prague Research (CSOB) Frankfurt +49 69 756 19372

Jan Cermak +420 2 6135 3578 Paris +33 153 89 83 15

Jan Bures +420 2 6135 3574 New York +1 212 541 06 97Petr Ba +420 2 6135 3570 Singapore +65 533 34 10Bratislava Research (CSOB)

Marek Gabris +421 2 5966 8809 Prague +420 2 6135 3535

Bratislava +421 2 5966 8436

Warsaw Research (Kredytbank) Budapest +36 1 328 99 63

Piotr Radzewicz +48 22 6345 946 Warsaw +48 22 634 5210

Budapest Research (K&H) Moscow +7 495 228 69 61

Gyorgy Barcza +36 1 328 99 89

Our reports are also available on:www.kbc.be/dealingroom

This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot beheld liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute arecommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee theaccuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

KBC Morning Sunrise Market Commentary 09-02-2011

Documents

Transcript of KBC Morning Sunrise Market Commentary 09-02-2011