June 16, 2015 - Jefferies Group · the level of competition, changes in fashion trends, changes in...
Transcript of June 16, 2015 - Jefferies Group · the level of competition, changes in fashion trends, changes in...
June 16, 2015
Safe Harbor���
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Forward Looking Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Such statements are intended to qualify for the protection of the safe harbor provided by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words “anticipate,” “estimate,” “expect,” “objective,” “goal,” “project,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “will,” “should,” “may,” “target,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “outlook” and similar expressions generally identify forward-looking statements. Similarly, descriptions of the Company’s objectives, strategies, plans, goals or targets are also forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements relate to the expectations of management as to future occurrences and trends, including statements expressing optimism or pessimism about future operating results or events and projected sales, earnings, capital expenditures and business strategy. Forward-looking statements are based upon a number of assumptions and factors concerning future conditions that may ultimately prove to be inaccurate. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed in forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. Such factors include, but are not limited to, the ability of the Company to maintain normal trade terms with vendors, the ability of the Company to comply with the covenant requirements contained in its revolving credit facility agreement, the demand for the Company’s merchandise and other factors. The demand for merchandise and sales volume may be affected by significant changes in economic conditions, including an economic downturn, unemployment rates, consumer confidence, energy and gasoline prices and other factors influencing discretionary consumer spending. Other factors affecting the demand for merchandise and sales volume include unusual weather patterns, an increase in the level of competition, changes in fashion trends, changes in the average cost of merchandise, availability of merchandise on normal payment terms and the failure to achieve the expected results of the Company’s merchandising, marketing and store operating plans. Additional assumptions, factors and risks concerning future conditions are discussed in the Risk Factors section of the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K as filed with the SEC (“Form 10-K”), and other factors discussed from time to time in the Company’s other SEC filings. Forward-looking statements are based upon management’s then-current views and assumptions regarding future events and operating performance. Although management believes the expectations expressed in forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of its knowledge, forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors which may materially affect the Company’s business, financial condition, results of operations or liquidity. Most of these factors are difficult to predict and are generally beyond the Company’s control. This presentation should be considered in conjunction with the Form 10-K and the Company’s other SEC filings. You should consider all such risks, uncertainties and other factors carefully in evaluating forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. This presentation was prepared as of March 4, 2015, and the Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
We’re a leading specialty department store brand located in small and mid-sized towns and communities
A Differentiated Business Model���
Our stores average 18,000 selling square feet, providing a tailored hometown shopping experience
We carry favorite brands and relevant styles in apparel, cosmetics, accessories, footwear and home
Our customers love to shop for style and value in a hometown store
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57% 26% 17%
64% 20%
16%
Number of Stores by Market Area Population *
< 50,000
50,000 - 150,000
> 150,000
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Small Market Presence���§ The majority of our stores are in small and
mid-sized markets
§ We have strong brand recognition in our local communities
§ We serve customers in smaller format stores with edited assortments of nationally recognized brands and favorite styles
§ Moderate overlap in markets with JC Penney’s, Kohl’s and off-price retailers
220 264 53 198 118
Store Count by Nameplate *
* Based on Q1 2015 store count
57% 26% 17%
5
14
345
97
222 34 109
32
Distribution Centers
Headquarters
Stores by Region*���§ Total of 853 locations across 40 states § Over 70% of our stores are located in the South
* Based on Q1 2015 store count
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§ Diversified product mix, with strong representation in women’s, children’s and footwear relative to other department stores
§ Focus on key national brands within each department while expanding door count for existing brands that customers love to shop
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Merchandise Mix*���
38% 17% 11% 9% 4%
Women’s Cosmetics & Fragrances
Home, Gifts & Other Children’s Men’s
* FY 2014 sales break out
Footwear
13%
Accessories
8%
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Brands, Style and Value���§ She comes to us for her favorite brands and the latest styles and trends
§ National brands account for approximately 87% of sales § Our pricing is high/low with compelling promotions and coupons
the Savvy Style Saver���Loves shopping and enjoys talking about style and her look with family and friends
Variety of style is important – she likes to change up her look
Shops Wal-Mart, JCPenney, Kohl’s, Target
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the Brand Fan���Loves shopping and pays attention to what’s hot and what’s not
Believes designer brands provide fashion that can’t be matched
Shops Macy’s, Kohl’s, Wal-Mart, JC Penney
Our Target Customers���
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§ Committed to growing our Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) business by improving the shopping experience and building out capabilities through:
§ An upgraded shopping experience across all channels § Expanded product offerings § Improved site functionality and fulfillment
Rapid Direct-to-Consumer Growth���
$73
$164
$470
Online Only
Store Only
Multi-Channel
Avg. Annual Spend per Customer*
$15 $23
$30 $38
$55
0.9%
1.4%
1.8%
2.3%
3.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
DTC Sales $M Penetration %
DTC Launched Nov 2010
>
* FY 2014
10 10
§ Focus media where our customer is spending her time
§ Shift dollars to digital, mobile and broadcast while maintaining direct mail and dramatically reducing spend on print
§ Grow customer file for text, email and voice messaging
Digital Media Share of Total Spend
+120%
Radio Share of Total Spend
+100%
Newspaper Share of Total Spend
-51%
Total SMS Text Subscribers
+590% +659%
Total Facebook Fans
+84%
Total Email Subscribers
+42%
Total PLCC Cardholders
Increase from 2011 to 2015
Refining our Marketing Vehicles���
Growth Initiatives���
Create a DTC and omni-channel experience
Increase emphasis on trends and style
Improve the store environment
Activate our connection to customers
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Our focus is on driving sales productivity in existing stores and expanding the presence and penetration of our Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) business
Create a DTC and omni-channel experience���
§ Create a seamless shopping experience
§ Broaden customer reach
§ Leverage DTC enhancements and functionality improvements to connect with the customer at multiple touch-points
§ Expand assortments § Improve site experience § Expand centralized fulfillment
§ Infrastructure for buy online, pick-up in store being built for 2016
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§ Increase share of wallet from existing customers and reach new customers
§ Increase the penetration of updated and contemporary fashion and brands
§ New and expanded brands – Dior, Betsey Johnson, Calvin Klein, DKNY, and Calphalon
§ Expand cosmetics doors – Estee Lauder and Clinique in over 300 stores and growing
§ Localization – size pack optimization and store
level markdown optimization § Home – re-launched in Q3‘14 with highly
edited offerings in kitchen, textiles and gifts
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Increase emphasis on trends and style ���
§ Shift capital from opening new stores to updating the existing fleet
§ ROI driven remodel strategy designed to elevate the customer shopping experience
§ Brighter stores § Improved fixturing § Enhanced navigation § Better layout to showcase popular
brands and create focus on updated apparel and accessories
§ Improve service to let our customer know she is very welcome
Improve the store environment���
§ Marketing strategy designed for greater connectivity § Shift media and timing to create greater impact § Personalize content with tailored offerings
§ Re-brand using a premier agency in order to refine our brand platform § Expand loyalty programs to include all customers while leveraging PLCC program § PLCC cardholders shop and spend ~3X more than non-cardholders
Activate our connection to customers���
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$16 $19
$31
$46 $54
32% 32% 33%
36%
40%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Premier Rewards PLCC
Credit Revenue ($M) Credit Penetration
Financial Overview���
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17
Net Sales
Financial Results*���
0.5%
5.7%
-1.5% 1.4% % Comp
$102
$108 $105 $107
Avg. Sales per SSF
$1,511 m
$1,628 m $1,609 m $1,639 m
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
§ Opportunity to drive sales productivity with near-term goal of $120 per selling square foot
§ Sensitivity to leverage creates margin and earnings expansion off of productivity gains
Adjusted EPS
$0.95 $1.44 $1.22 $1.18
* Continuing operations
§ Shifting capital spend to focus more on existing stores and technology in support of strategic growth initiatives
$32
$41 $45
$57
$65
$75
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(E)*
Capital Spend History ($M) *
12%
51%
31%
6%
$75M
Technology
Existing Stores
New Stores Other
2015 Capital Plan *
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Capital Spending���
*Excluding anticipated one time capital expenditures, net of construction allowances, of ~$12M related to the corporate headquarters consolidation project
$0.30 $0.36 $0.40 $0.50 $0.56 $0.60
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§ Strong financial position § Internally funded growth and focus on returning value to shareholders § Disciplined inventory management and a conservative capital structure § Strong liquidity supported by cash flow from operations and credit facility § $350 million revolving line of credit entered into in Oct 2014 increased borrowing
capacity by $100 million and reduces interest expense § Strong dividend track record with six consecutive years of dividend increases
19 Sep 2010 Sep 2011
Sep 2012
Jun 2013
Jun 2014 Jun 2015
50% Increase
20% Increase
11% Increase
25% Increase
12% Increase
Financial Position���
7% Increase
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§ Strong brand loyalty with differentiated merchandise offerings at a great value
§ Driving productivity through enhanced merchandising and refreshed stores
§ Creating an omni-channel experience led by direct-to-consumer business growth
§ Strong PLCC program and piloting a tender-neutral loyalty program in 2015
§ Solid balance sheet and consistent
dividend growth
§ Strong and experienced management
Why Stage Stores���
Small and mid-size markets focus
7% dividend increase in FY’15
Goal of >5% penetration by FY’17
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45% PLCC penetration by FY’17
Target EBITDA margins of 10%
Extensive retail experience