July 2016 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report

July 2016 Quick Facts

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Monthly Indicators

Even as prices rise in many communities, homes are selling faster now than they have in the past several years. This creates a situation where buyers need to move fast in order to secure homes, and they may have to pay more for them. While increasing prices generally coax more selling activity, there has been some hesitancy among potential sellers who worry that they will not be able to buy a desirable and reasonably priced home once they sell.

Closed Sales decreased 16.1 percent for Single-Family homes and 17.4 percent for Condominium homes. Pending Sales decreased 6.6 percent for Single-Family homes and 6.0 percent for Condominium homes. Inventory decreased 23.1 percent for Single-Family homes and 23.0 percent for Condominium homes.

The Median Sales Price was up 4.5 percent to $575,000 for Single-Family homes and 7.6 percent to $495,000 for Condominium homes. Days on Market increased 4.1 percent for Single-Family homes but remained flat for Condominium homes. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 29.4 percent for Single-Family homes and 27.3 percent for Condominium homes.

Low housing supply has already prevented an outright national boon in sales activity, despite a continuation of near record-low mortgage rates and an unemployment rate under 5.0 percent deep into 2016. The issue is not purchasing power. Many areas are falling behind last year's closed sales totals simply because of lack of available inventory. As this continues, higher prices may put a deeper squeeze on the current buyer pool.

Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of August 16, 2016. All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2016 ShowingTime.

Single-Family Home Market Overview

- 16.7% - 16.1% - 17.4%

This is a research tool provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS®. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.

Condominium Market Overview

Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales

All Properties


Single-Family Only


Condominium Only

Closed Sales

Pending SalesNew ListingsCity of Boston OverviewRegional Map

Median Sales PriceHousing Affordability IndexInventory of Homes for SaleMonths Supply of InventoryDays on Market Until SalePercent of Original List Price Received

Single-Family Home Market Overview

Historical Sparkbars 7-2015 7-2016 PercentChange YTD 2015 YTD 2016 Percent

Change

Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.

Closed Sales 1,902 1,596 - 16.1%

Key Metrics

7,919 + 5.2%

Median Sales Price $550,000 $575,000 + 4.5% $525,000 $540,000 + 2.9%

7,524

+ 2.5%

Inventory of Homes for Sale 3,706 2,850 - 23.1% -- -- --

Housing Affordability Index 76 77 + 1.3% 80 82

--

Days on Market Until Sale 49 51 + 4.1% 64 62 - 3.1%

Months Supply of Inventory 3.4 2.4 - 29.4% -- --

Current as of August 16, 2016. All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2016 ShowingTime. | 2

+ 0.2%

Pending Sales 1,282 1,198 - 6.6% 8,819 9,238 + 4.8%

Pct. of Orig. List Price Received 99.5% 99.6% + 0.1% 98.4% 98.6%

New Listings - 0.2%1,630 1,323 - 18.8% 11,876 11,852

Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016









Condominium Market Overview


Change


+ 4.3%Pending Sales 964 906 - 6.0% 7,034 7,333

New Listings 1,117 1,105 - 1.1% 8,674 8,726

100.6% + 0.2%

480.0% 49

+ 0.6%

Pct. of Orig. List Price Received 101.1% 101.4% + 0.3% 100.4%

- 2.0%

- 23.0% -- --

Months Supply of Inventory 2.2 1.6 - 27.3% --

--

-- --

+ 7.6% $451,000 $483,640 + 7.2%

89 - 2.2% 93 92 - 1.1%

- 17.4%

Key Metrics

6,324 + 6.6%5,930

Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.

Closed Sales 1,377 1,137

Median Sales Price $460,000 $495,000

Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,893 1,457

Days on Market Until Sale 40 40

Housing Affordability Index 91










Closed Sales

Closed Sales Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year

Change CondominiumYear-Over-Year

Change

Aug-2015 1,710 +11.5% 1,250 +7.6%

Sep-2015 1,218 +17.5% 942 +7.2%

Oct-2015 1,120 +8.3% 831 -4.8%

Nov-2015 1,007 +7.4% 775 +16.7%

Dec-2015 1,249 +11.1% 912 +8.1%

Jan-2016 843 +17.7% 604 +24.5%

Feb-2016 588 +10.7% 473 +4.6%

Mar-2016 779 +14.1% 756 +30.6%

Apr-2016 929 +21.9% 827 +19.9%

May-2016 1,249 +17.8% 1,118 +16.7%

Jun-2016 1,935 +3.5% 1,409 +1.4%

Jul-2016 1,596 -16.1% 1,137 -17.4%

12-Month Avg 1,185 +7.8% 920 +6.6%

Historical Closed Sales by Month


A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.

1,752

1,214

1,902

1,377

1,596

1,137

Single-Family Condominium

July

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


7,282

6,210

7,524

5,930

7,919

6,324


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

- 17.4%+ 13.4%- 16.1%+ 8.6% - 4.5%+ 5.2%+ 3.3% + 6.6%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

- 1.6% - 6.2% - 2.0%- 10.5%

Median Sales Price

Median Sales Price Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Aug-2015 $528,900 +2.7% $455,500 +9.0%

Sep-2015 $491,700 +7.1% $425,450 +3.4%

Oct-2015 $475,000 +0.5% $455,000 +15.2%

Nov-2015 $517,000 +6.4% $450,455 +7.3%

Dec-2015 $500,001 +5.3% $443,750 +5.2%

Jan-2016 $490,000 +1.0% $443,250 -1.3%

Feb-2016 $518,750 +10.4% $449,000 +7.0%

Mar-2016 $472,500 +0.7% $478,750 +5.2%

Apr-2016 $530,000 +3.5% $480,456 +10.2%

May-2016 $530,250 +2.0% $482,500 +4.0%

Jun-2016 $585,000 +4.5% $505,000 +9.8%

Jul-2016 $575,000 +4.5% $495,000 +7.6%

12-Month Avg* $517,842 +3.6% $463,676 +7.8%

Historical Median Sales Price by Month

Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

* Median Sales Price for all properties from August 2015 through July 2016. This is not the average of the individual figures above.


$520,000

$419,000

$550,000

$460,000

$575,000

$495,000


July

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


$500,000

$415,000

$525,000

$451,000

$540,000

$483,640


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

+ 7.6%+ 9.8%+ 4.5%+ 5.8% + 8.7%+ 2.9%+ 5.0% + 7.2%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

+ 5.3% + 9.0% + 6.7%+ 7.4%

Housing Affordability Index

Affordability Index Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Aug-2015 80 +2.6% 93 -4.1%

Sep-2015 87 0.0% 101 +4.1%

Oct-2015 90 +4.7% 94 -8.7%

Nov-2015 82 -2.4% 94 -3.1%

Dec-2015 85 -2.3% 96 -1.0%

Jan-2016 86 -3.4% 95 -2.1%

Feb-2016 84 -8.7% 97 -6.7%

Mar-2016 92 0.0% 91 -3.2%

Apr-2016 82 -3.5% 91 -8.1%

May-2016 82 -2.4% 90 -4.3%

Jun-2016 76 0.0% 88 -5.4%

Jul-2016 77 +1.3% 89 -2.2%

12-Month Avg 84 -0.8% 93 -4.0%

Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month

This index measures housing affordability for the region. For example, an index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.


77

96

76

91

77

89


July

40

60

80

100

120

140

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


80

97

80

93

8292


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

- 2.2%- 5.2%+ 1.3%- 1.3% - 4.1%+ 2.5%0.0% - 1.1%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

- 2.5% - 5.9% - 3.0%- 4.0%

Inventory of Homes for Sale

Homes for Sale Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Aug-2015 3,591 +1.6% 1,811 +4.6%

Sep-2015 3,905 +1.6% 2,108 +11.1%

Oct-2015 3,753 +0.8% 2,045 +6.0%

Nov-2015 3,128 +2.4% 1,804 +11.8%

Dec-2015 2,371 -1.1% 1,375 +10.2%

Jan-2016 2,302 +1.8% 1,371 +7.7%

Feb-2016 2,321 +13.1% 1,361 +11.6%

Mar-2016 2,819 +25.2% 1,610 +17.7%

Apr-2016 3,131 +4.8% 1,619 -5.9%

May-2016 3,122 -11.7% 1,580 -18.4%

Jun-2016 3,174 -14.1% 1,552 -19.7%

Jul-2016 2,850 -23.1% 1,457 -23.0%

12-Month Avg 3,039 -1.6% 1,641 -0.4%

Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month

The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.


3,681

1,895

3,706

1,893

2,850

1,457


July

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


2014 2015 2016

- 23.0%- 0.1%- 23.1%+ 0.7%2014 2015 2016

+ 8.3% - 8.9%

Months Supply of Inventory

Months Supply Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Aug-2015 3.2 0.0% 2.1 +10.5%

Sep-2015 3.5 0.0% 2.4 +14.3%

Oct-2015 3.3 -5.7% 2.3 +4.5%

Nov-2015 2.7 -3.6% 2.0 +11.1%

Dec-2015 2.1 -4.5% 1.6 +14.3%

Jan-2016 2.0 -4.8% 1.5 +7.1%

Feb-2016 2.0 +5.3% 1.5 +7.1%

Mar-2016 2.4 +14.3% 1.8 +12.5%

Apr-2016 2.6 -7.1% 1.8 -10.0%

May-2016 2.6 -21.2% 1.7 -26.1%

Jun-2016 2.6 -23.5% 1.7 -26.1%

Jul-2016 2.4 -29.4% 1.6 -27.3%

12-Month Avg* 2.6 -8.2% 1.8 -3.3%

Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month

The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly closed sales from the last 12 months.

* Months Supply for all properties from August 2015 through July 2016. This is not the average of the individual figures above.


3.3

2.1

3.4

2.22.4

1.6


July

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


2014 2015 2016

- 27.3%+ 4.8%- 29.4%+ 3.0%2014 2015 2016

+ 6.5% - 8.7%

Days on Market Until Sale

Days on Market Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Aug-2015 54 +5.9% 45 -10.0%

Sep-2015 57 -6.6% 50 -2.0%

Oct-2015 64 +4.9% 50 0.0%

Nov-2015 61 -7.6% 56 +5.7%

Dec-2015 70 +1.4% 52 -5.5%

Jan-2016 74 -11.9% 58 -1.7%

Feb-2016 91 -3.2% 64 -13.5%

Mar-2016 80 -13.0% 60 -9.1%

Apr-2016 70 -10.3% 48 -18.6%

May-2016 58 -1.7% 46 +2.2%

Jun-2016 49 -5.8% 41 +5.1%

Jul-2016 51 +4.1% 40 0.0%

12-Month Avg* 65 -2.2% 51 -2.6%

Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month

Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.

* Days on Market for all properties from August 2015 through July 2016. This is not the average of the individual figures above.


50 4949

40

51

40


July

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


5954

64

49

62

48


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

0.0%- 18.4%+ 4.1%- 2.0% - 9.3%- 3.1%+ 8.5% - 2.0%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

+ 19.0% - 10.6% - 3.6%+ 28.9%

Percent of Original List Price Received

Pct. of Orig. List Price Received Single-Family

Year-Over-YearChange Condominium

Year-Over-YearChange

Aug-2015 98.5% +0.3% 100.6% +0.6%

Sep-2015 97.7% +0.8% 99.5% +0.4%

Oct-2015 96.7% 0.0% 99.7% +1.2%

Nov-2015 97.4% +0.8% 99.3% +1.2%

Dec-2015 96.1% +0.5% 98.3% +0.4%

Jan-2016 95.8% -0.1% 97.9% +0.1%

Feb-2016 95.7% +0.5% 98.1% -0.1%

Mar-2016 97.7% +1.2% 99.7% +1.0%

Apr-2016 98.4% +1.0% 101.1% +0.5%

May-2016 99.3% +0.2% 101.4% +0.5%

Jun-2016 99.8% +0.1% 101.7% +0.1%

Jul-2016 99.6% +0.1% 101.4% +0.3%

12-Month Avg* 97.7% +0.3% 99.9% +0.4%

Historical Percent of Original List Price Received by Month

Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties soldin a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.

* Pct. of Orig. List Price Received for all properties from August 2015 through July 2016. This is not the average of the individual figures above.


98.6% 99.9%99.5% 101.1%99.6% 101.4%


July

87.5%

90.0%

92.5%

95.0%

97.5%

100.0%

102.5%

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


98.1% 99.6%98.4% 100.4%98.6% 100.6%


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

+ 0.3%+ 1.2%+ 0.1%+ 0.9% + 0.8%+ 0.2%+ 0.3% + 0.2%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

+ 0.4% + 1.1% + 0.9%+ 0.1%

Pending Sales

Pending Sales Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Aug-2015 1,123 +15.4% 815 +11.8%

Sep-2015 1,214 +17.4% 860 +0.1%

Oct-2015 1,258 +8.2% 954 +14.1%

Nov-2015 950 +6.1% 722 +10.2%

Dec-2015 660 +12.1% 519 +12.1%

Jan-2016 686 -2.8% 649 +18.4%

Feb-2016 888 +40.5% 827 +45.9%

Mar-2016 1,436 +30.0% 1,132 +13.5%

Apr-2016 1,596 +3.2% 1,307 +2.6%

May-2016 1,788 +1.6% 1,306 +0.6%

Jun-2016 1,646 -7.9% 1,206 -13.0%

Jul-2016 1,198 -6.6% 906 -6.0%

12-Month Avg 1,204 +7.2% 934 +5.9%

Historical Pending Sales by Month

A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).


1,183

944

1,282

964

1,198

906


July

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


8,385

7,016

8,819

7,034

9,238

7,333


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

- 6.0%+ 2.1%- 6.6%+ 8.4% + 0.3%+ 4.8%+ 5.2% + 4.3%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

- 1.1% - 8.0% - 6.7%- 5.3%

New Listings

New Listings Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Aug-2015 1,331 +11.8% 936 +18.3%

Sep-2015 1,954 +8.3% 1,439 +12.7%

Oct-2015 1,523 +3.0% 1,153 +3.5%

Nov-2015 875 +17.8% 762 +26.4%

Dec-2015 554 +10.6% 462 +15.8%

Jan-2016 903 +7.4% 805 +13.5%

Feb-2016 1,127 +76.9% 938 +50.6%

Mar-2016 2,171 +45.3% 1,542 +22.0%

Apr-2016 2,125 -14.0% 1,469 -15.2%

May-2016 2,074 -18.1% 1,435 -13.7%

Jun-2016 2,129 -6.2% 1,432 -8.6%

Jul-2016 1,323 -18.8% 1,105 -1.1%

12-Month Avg 1,507 +2.8% 1,123 +4.8%

Historical New Listings by Month

A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.


1,442

1,078

1,630

1,117

1,323

1,105


July

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


11,656

8,593

11,876

8,674

11,852

8,726


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

- 1.1%+ 3.6%- 18.8%+ 13.0% + 0.9%- 0.2%+ 1.9% + 0.6%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

+ 3.7% - 0.3% - 6.4%+ 1.1%

City of Boston - Market Overview


Change


+ 0.5%

4,327 - 0.7%

3,548

New Listings 548 513 - 6.4% 4,358

Pending Sales 476 425 - 10.7% 3,532

+ 2.1%

Pct. of Orig. List Price Received 100.8% 100.9% + 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Days on Market Until Sale 41 41 0.0% 47 48

-- --

Inventory of Homes for Sale 940 769 - 18.2% --

Months Supply of Inventory 2.2 1.7 - 22.7% --

87 - 4.4%

----

Housing Affordability Index 93 87 - 6.5% 91

3,028 + 0.7%

Median Sales Price $499,000 $560,000 + 12.2% $507,750 $558,500 + 10.0%

3,008

Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.

Closed Sales 708 569 - 19.6%

Key Metrics










Regional Map

Central Middlesex Region Metro West RegionActon AshlandBedford DoverBoxboro FraminghamConcord HollistonHudson HopkintonLexington MedfieldLincoln MedwayMaynard MillisStow NatickSudbury NeedhamWayland SherbornWeston Wellesley

Eastern Middlesex Region Southern Norfolk RegionBurlington AvonMalden BellinghamMedford CantonMelrose FoxboroNorth Reading FranklinReading MansfieldStoneham NorfolkWakefield NorwoodWilmington RandolphWinchester SharonWoburn Stoughton

WalpoleMetro Boston Region WestwoodArlington WrenthamBelmontBostonBrooklineCambridgeChelseaDedhamEverettMiltonNewtonRevereSomervilleWalthamWatertownWinthrop


A map of the the 64 areas and 5 regions that make up "Greater Boston."

Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® Regional Map

Communities by Region

July 2016 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report

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Transcript of July 2016 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report