JUDGMENTAL FORECASTINGBiases, etc.Judgmenta F!"ecastingT#e statistica $!"ecasting met#!ds %"esented in t#e te&t a!' us t! e&t"a%!ate esta(is#ed %atte"ns and)!" e&isting "eati!ns#i%s in !"de" t! %"edict t#ei" c!ntinuati!n, assuming t#at suc# %atte"ns)"eati!ns#i%s 'i not c#ange du"ing t#e $!"ecasting %#ase.Judgmenta F!"ecastingAs t#e same time, (ecause c#anges can and d! !ccu", t#ese must (e detected as ea"* as %!ssi(e t! a+!id a"ge, usua* c!st*, $!"ecasting e""!"s.Judgmenta F!"ecasting,!'e+e", '#en c#anges a"e detected, !" i$ 'e can -n!' '#en t#e* a"e a(!ut t! !ccu", #uman .udgment is t#e !n* +ia(e ate"nati+e $!" %"edicting (!t# t#ei" e&tent and t#ei" im%icati!ns !n $!"ecasting.Judgmenta F!"ecasting,uman .udgment is as! needed t! inc!"%!"ate inside in$!"mati!n and -n!'edge, as 'e as manage"s/ e&%e"ience, a(!ut t#e $utu"e.Judgmenta F!"ecastingBe$!"e using !u" .udgment $!" im%"!+ing $!"ecasting accu"ac*, #!'e+e", 'e must unde"stand its (iases and imitati!ns a!ng 'it# its ma.!" ad+antages.D!ing s! a!'s us t! c!m(ine t#e in$!"mati!n $"!m !u" statistica %"edicti!ns 'it# t#!se !$ !u" .udgment (* e&%!iting t#e ad+antages !$ (!t# '#ie a+!iding t#ei" d"a'(ac-s.Judgmenta F!"ecasting0e ma-e innume"a(e $!"ecasts e+e"* da*, (ut e&%end itte e1!"t in e+auating t#em t! 2nd 'a*s !$ im%"!+ing t#ei" accu"ac*.T#e "eas!n is sim%e3 'e d! n!t 'ant t! (e #ed "es%!nsi(e i$ !u" $!"ecasts g! '"!ng.,!'e+e", uness 'e get $eed(ac- a(!ut t#e accu"ac* !$ !u" %"edicti!ns, it is n!t i-e* t#at 'e can im%"!+e !u" %e"$!"mance '#en ma-ing simia" $!"ecasts in t#e $utu"e.Judgmenta F!"ecastingBecause .udgmenta $!"ecasts a"e muc# m!"e c!mm!n t#an statistica !nes, n!t !n* can 'e n!t ign!"e t#em, (ut 'e must as! (e 'iing t! acce%t t#at .udgmenta $!"ecasting e""!"s cann!t (e enti"e* a+!ided4 'e 'i (e (ette" !1 i$ 'e can acce%t suc# e""!"s '#ie ea"ning as muc# as %!ssi(e $"!m t#em s! 'e can im%"!+e !u" a(iit* t! $!"ecast m!"e accu"ate* in t#e $utu"e.Judgmenta F!"ecastingT#e accu"ac* !$ .udgmenta $!"ecasts is, !n a+e"age, in$e"i!" t! statistica !nes.T#is is (ecause !u" .udgment is !$ten c#a"acte"i5ed (* c!nside"a(e (iases and imitati!ns.The nature of judgmental biases and limitations0e "a"e* d! an*t#ing t! "emed* t#e de2ciencies !$ !u" .udgment, main* (ecause 'e a"e un'iing t! acce%t t#at !u" .udgment can (e $aut* !" (iased.Because .udgmenta (iases a"e am!st ne+e" %"esumed t! e&ist, it is e&t"eme* im%!"tant t! e&%!se t#em3 em%i"ica e+idence cea"* dem!nst"ates t#ei" e&istence and t#ei" negati+e, damaging c!nse6uences.BiasT#e enti"e su(.ect !$ .udgmenta (iases c!ud ta-e man* +!umes t! t"eat t#!"!ug#*.7See 8a#neman and T+e"s-*, 9:;: