Presentation for discussion at the meeting of Sub-Committee for Judea and Samaria of the Knesset

Committee for Foreign Affairs and Defense on the subject of the Region’s demography

By Yakov FaitelsonNovember 10, 2014

One of the main reasons for erroneous estimates of the size of the Arab population in Judea, Samaria and Gaza is a constant and consistent ignoring the data of the migration balance .

This, combined with non-credible reports on the size of births and mortality, and as a result, a misconception about the natural increase, it brings to distortions in assessing the real annual growth rate of the Arab population in Judea, Samaria and Gaza.

This inevitably leads to errors in assessing the demographic trends in the population in the long term and the direction and intensity of future developments in this area.

Nor will the Arab population within Palestine be able to grow indefinitely. Some outmigration, even in the absence of forced expulsion, is inevitable. The tiny Gaza Strip is now one of the most densely settled areas of the world, and there is a limit to its ability to contain more people, even at the appalling levels of subsistence that now prevail.“The Demographic War For Palestine”, by Janet Abu-Lughod

The Link, Vol. 19, No. 5, December 1986

Emigration from Judea, Samaria and Gaza is not a new phenomenon.

It has existed continuously for at least 65 years.

Prof. Justin McCarthy estimates that from 1950 to 1960 the number of emigrants from the West Bank reached 200 thousand. "Most migrants from the West Bank went to the East Bank. Improving economic conditions on the East Bank and Jordanian citizenship made the East Bank an attractive target area for the migration of unskilled labor. …Palestinian skilled labor went all over the Arab world and on to Europe and the Americas, taking advantage of opportunities that were unavailable to the unskilled”.

Justin McCarthy, Palestine's Population During The Ottoman And The British Mandate Periods. Migration. Migration After 1948. Posted on September 8, 2001http://www.palestineremembered.com/Acre/Palestine-Remembered/Story559.html

“Palestinians have poured out of the West Bank for the last 30 years, under Jordanian as well as Israeli rule, according to Prof. Uziel Schmelz, a senior official at the Israeli Bureau of Statistics. From 1952 to 1961, the West Bank population grew annually at a rate of only 0 .07 percent a year, because 150,000 residents emigrated over that period”.

"Perilous numbers game on the West Bank”, By Trudy Rubin, Special correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor August 16, 1983 http://www.csmonitor.com/1983/0816/081638.html

“…from the early 1950s until the eve of Israeli occupation, the average annual net migration rate was around 20 per 1,000, which almost off-set the rate of natural increase”.

UNCTAD/ECDC/SEU/1. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 28 June 1994Population and Demographic Developments in the West Bank and Gaza Strip until 1990. Study prepared by Dr. Wael R. Ennab, UNCTAD consultant (Al-Najah University, the West Bank)

The Migration Balance data is crucial for correct estimate of the size of the population in Judea, Samaria and Gaza.

Nevertheless, US CBS and PCBS are systematically ignoring the Migration Balance data and claiming that there is no migration of these areas.

US Census.gov http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/region.php?Downloaded on June 27, 2014, 20:18

International Data Base. Demographic Overview - Custom Region - West BankDemographic Indicators 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Migration

Net migration rate (per 1,000 population) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net number of migrants (in thousands) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Source Information: West Bank

"I think the reason is political. Emigration is a political issue. In the confrontation between the Palestinians and the Jews, emigration could be construed by some as a form of Palestinian concession, or as a sign of Palestinian weakness.“

Dr. Khalil Shikaki, a researcher of Palestinian public opinion."The secret Exodus -- Palestinian Emigration”. By Uriya Shavit and Jalal Bana. Ha'aretz (Magazine section); 5 October 2001 http://www.mefacts.com/cached.asp?x_id=11243

"... We find that the Jews were able to save the higher share of Israeli population through migration to Israel, while , simultaneously, the natural growth rates of the Palestinians had diminished, the displacement rates (emigration abroad) (were) higher ... and the contraceptive programs helped to reduce the fertility rates ... and therefore the demographic factor will play a limited and even marginal role in the conflict... “

النفس وخداع إسرائيل في الديموغرافية عدوان القنبلة Bissan Jehad Edwan بيسانProject Manager and researcher at Madarek Center for the Right to Knowledge, Cairo, Egypt

http://www.ahewar.org/debat/show.art.asp?aid=17080 : - العدد المتمدن : Civilized dialogue-number 11:10 - 16 / 4 / 2004 - 806 الحوار

الفلسطينية: القضية Theme: Palestinian issue المحور

تتالشي المقابل في إسرائيل في المرتفعة نسبتهم علي الحفاظ استطاعوا الهجرة صافي خالل ومن اليهود إن نجد إنناتساعد .... التي النسل تحديد وبرامج الوفيات عدد وزيادة النزوح معدالت ارتفاع بسبب الفلسطينية الطبيعية الزيادة نتائج

.. الصراع في هامشيا بل محدودا دورا يلعب سوف الديمغرافي العامل ا لذا الخ، الخصوبة معدالت انخفاض .علي

“Despite an Arab birthrate far higher than that of Israeli Jews, the ratio of Jews to non-Jews in Eretz (greater) Israel remained almost stable from 1970 to 1981: 65 percent Jews to 35 (inching toward 36*) percent non-Jews. The reason: heavy Palestinian emigration”.*- Change in the rate was due to rapid Natural increase for the non-Jewish citizens of Israel. "Perilous numbers game on the West Bank” By Trudy Rubin, Special correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor August 16, 1983

“The weapon par excellence adopted by the Jewish community to enhance its claim to Palestine was migration; the weapon of the Palestinian Arab population to maintain its legitimate claim to the country has been natural increase”.“The Demographic War For Palestine”, by Janet Abu-Lughod, 1986

“With regard to total fertility rate (TFR), overall, UNRWA figures show that Palestinianrefugees’ TFR decreased and it is nearly similar to population in the host countries, while the age group (0-4) is smaller than the age group of (5-9) which indicates less birth rate in the last five years (See Table 3)”. Demographic Profile of Palestinian Migration. By Ismail Lubbad, PhD. The Forced Migration & Refugee Studies Program. The American University in Cairo, Egypt. October 23-25, 2007

In fact, the age group (9-5) is smaller than the age group (14-10), therefore, it is indicating that the decline in the birth rate has been decreasing for last 10 years, i.e. starting from 1996.

“It is noticed that populations in rural areas are more desirable to emigrate than populations in urban and camp areas, as the percentages were 35.1% for villagers, 31.1% for urban, and 32.2% for camp residents”.

“Data from questionnaires carried out by the Institute of Development Studies in Birzeit university during February 2007, indicates… that youth are the category mostdesirable for migration, since the percentage of individuals aged between 18-29 years who prefer migration has reached 43.8%, while it has reached 29.5% for the category aged between 30-49 years (See Table 6)… Data also shows that singles were the category most desirable for emigration, about 54.1% of the total persons who desire to emigrate”.Demographic Profile of Palestinian Migration. By Ismail Lubbad

“Actually, Israeli authority indicates that migration is negative while the PCBS estimates no migration flow from/into the oPt since 2000 (zero migration).

Nevertheless, between July 2006 and June 2007, the number of arrivals and departures Palestinians to/out of the Gaza Strip indicates that the difference is approximately 10,000 departures.

This matches the expectations of a public poll conducted by Beirzeit Development Program in February 2007, which revealed that about 31% of the respondents expressed their desire to migrate if they had the opportunity, which reflects an increased desire of emigration”.Demographic Profile of Palestinian Migration. By Ismail Lubbad, PhD.The Forced Migration & Refugee Studies Program. The American University in Cairo, Egypt. October 23-25, 2007

“Birzeit University pollster Nader Said, who has monitored emigration attitudes for 12 years, says… that the percentage (of Palestinians willing to relocate) surges to 44 percent among Palestinians in their 20s and 30s. Among young men, it surges beyond 50 percent”.

“Fallout of Hamas's rule spurs Palestinian desire to flee”. By Joshua Mitnick, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor. October 24, 2006 http:// . . /2006/1024/ 04 01- .www csmonitor com p s wome html

In the Religious ruling “Fatwa” (May 14, 2007), entitled "No permit for emigration from Palestine", signed by the Mufti of Jerusalem and Palestine region, Sheikh Muhammad Amin Hussein, it was written as follows:

“There are many talks about emigration in our country of Palestine at these days, especially among the young people, due to the security situation and severe economic consequences, who express their desire to find a work in other countries. It is reflected in pursuing the gates of the embassies and missions of Western countries and asking to obtain a visa to these countries and to settle permanently there . .. "

On July 2, 2007, in an interview with "Asharq Al-Awsat“, the Arabic international newspaper headquartered in London, Prime Minister of the Palestinian Emergency Government, Salam Fayyad, said as follows:

"How can I deal with the problem of 40 to 50 thousand Palestinians who emigrated, and many more who are not emigrated yet, just because they can not do it. We are losing about it .... "

“…the ensuing political and economic predicament of the West Bank and Gaza Strip resulted in a constant flow of emigration from the Palestinian occupied territory”.

“International Migration and the Nation State in Arab Countries .”Philippe Fargues, Director, Migration Policy Centre European University Institute, Italy

Middle East Law and Governance 5 (2013). An Interdisciplinary Journal .

"The net balance of arrivals and departures for the West Bank in the period 1967-present is always negative: on average about 10,000 annually, except in specific years, such as the years of the Gulf Wars when Palestinians were forced to return home and the period after the start of the peace process and the arrival of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) leaders and their families... ... the main reason for migration by Palestinians relates to the economic factors resulting from the political instability and the infighting between the Palestinian parties".

“The available data on migration revealed that the Palestinian Territory was third among sending countries in the Middle East and North Africa, after Jordan and Iran (World Bank, 2008). Recently, it has been noted that the arrivals-departures balance is negative; in the first 8 months of 2009, the only Jordanian-Palestinian crossing border point the Karama bridge registered about minus 44 thousand, while it was about minus 63 thousand during the same period in 2008 (PSD, 2009)”.

“Highly-skilled migration into, through and from the southern and eastern Mediterranean and sub Saharan Africa. The case of Palestine”. Mustafa Khawaja, Director, Jerusalem Statistical Department, Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). CARIM-AS 2010/30, Robert Shuman Centre for Advanced Studies, San Domenico di Fiesole (FI): European University Institute, 2010.

Data of the Migration Balance in Judea and Samaria (as provided following the meeting at the Civil Administration of Judea and Samaria, which took place on Nov. 3, 2008

with the participation of: Lt. Col. Sharon Biton, Yoram Ettinger, Dr. Mike Wise and Yakov Faitelson)

The annual Migration Balance (arrivals/departures through international crossings)

YearResidents of the Region

Allenby Bridge

Ben Gurion Airport

Rafah Crossing

Point

Adam Bridge

Other Crossing Points

Total

1997Judea & Samaria 7,595 584 40 0 7 8,226

1998Judea & Samaria 9,957 661 42 0 6 10,666

1999Judea & Samaria 11,574 919 34 0 22 12,549

2000Judea & Samaria 17,880 1,457 113 0 86 19,536

2001Judea & Samaria 6,617 571 33 0 3 7,224

2002Judea & Samaria 4,251 199 42 0 4 4,496

2003Judea & Samaria 6,321 469 56 0 4 6,850

2004Judea & Samaria 16,469 376 61 0 8 16,914

2005Judea & Samaria 30,211 465 117 0 13 30,806

2006Judea & Samaria 34,484 661 0 0 26 35,171

2007Judea & Samaria 58,951 864 0 0 46 59,861

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

20

0720

09 (70,000)

(60,000)

(50,000)

(40,000)

(30,000)

(20,000)

(10,000)

-

10,000

20,000

Migration balance in Judea, Samaria and Gaza1967-2009

יהודה והשומרון חבל עזה

FirstIntifada

Period of economic depression in Israel

and prosperity ofoil-producing coun-

triesRecession of oil prices

1984-1998

& JudeaSamaria

Gaza

Rule of Hamas

Al-Aqsa Intifada

Encouraging emigration to

South America with a grant of 500 Israeli pounds per

family

The OsloAgreements

The mass immigrationfrom the Soviet Union

and growth of demand for construction workers

in Israel

Until the mid-70s of the 20th century the Data of the US CBS was matching the Data of the ICBS, including Arab residents of East Jerusalem.

By 1993, the figures of ICBS for Arab population of Judea and Samaria, including East Jerusalem and Arab emigrants from Judea and Samaria, were higher than those of US CBS.

In 1994, the figures of US CBS and ICBS (including East Jerusalem residents and Arab emigrants) were alike.

Since 1997, the US CBS assessments of total population of Judea and Samaria, Arabs and Jews, are presenting a line, following a linear regression model. Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) refers to the Arab population only, but including East Jerusalem residents.

In 2001 the PCBS had published the population forecast by the year 2024 which looks like a linear regression line. According to this forecast, the population of Judea and Samaria should be 3,385,187 people in 2013, about 25% more than the latest estimate of the PCBS for this year.

One can see that PCBS population estimate figures for Judea and Samaria for years from 2002 to 2007 were zigzagging, but from here on they are compatible with figures of US CBS. 

As Arab demographers noted by themselves, the Arab migration balance in Judea and Samaria was consistently negative throughout the period, starting from the 50s of the 20th century and up to the end of it, except for a few years.

The Arab migration balance in Judea and Samaria remained to be negative in the 21st century too, while its dimensions had even increased. In recent years, the phenomenon that had existed in the 50s of last century had had repeated once again, when the negative migration balance offsets the Natural Increase of the Arab population almost completely.

Simultaneously, due to the positive progress in the level of education, especially among the Arab women, as also the growing urbanization process, the Natural Increase of all Arabs in the Land of Israel is rapidly declining. For the Arabs of Judea and Samaria it is dropping even more rapidly than for the Arabs, citizens of Israel. One of the main reasons for this development is due to the emigration of young people and thereby due to reducing the volume of the fertile Arab population in Judea and Samaria.

According to the CIA FACTBOOK publications, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of the Arabs of Judea and Samaria fell down to 2.83 child per woman in 2014, compared with 5.70 child per woman in 1994. The TFR of Arabs had reduced more than by 50% in less than one generation.

For comparison, the TFR of Jews in Israel in 2013 was 3.1 and of the Jewish settlers in Judea and Samaria it is even 5.05 child per woman. Annual growth of the Jewish population of Judea and Samaria communities is the highest of all geographical areas from the Mediterranean sea to the Jordan River and stood on the average of 5% annually.

Conclusions

Analysis of demographic multi-annual trends existing in Judea and Samaria indicates the stability of the Arab population size in the recent years, around 1.5 million people.

If the population of East Jerusalem Arab residents would be also included, it would reach about 1.8 million people. The Jewish population, including the Jewish settlements in Judea, Samaria and the residents of East Jerusalem ,will approach 600 thousand people in 2014 , or approximately 25% of the total population.

If we’ll ignore the artificial division of Jerusalem to the Eastern and Western parts of the city and treat all Jerusalem residents as part of the population of Judea and Samaria, then the Jewish population is approximately 880 thousand people, or a third of the Total population of this geographic area.

Expanding the boundaries of Jerusalem area up to the size similar to the municipal area of the capital of Jordan, Amman, which is 1,680 square kilometers, would bring the total Jewish population up to about 1 million people, or 36% of the Total population in the geographical area of Judea and Samaria.

Analysis of potential development in this direction is used as the basis for preparing the Master Plan for Jerusalem carried out by the team of "Jerusalem 2050", headed by architect Shlomo Gertner, and founded by Mr. Kevin Bermeister.

Further development of the population size in Judea and Samaria, Jews and Arabs alike, depends not only on the natural demographic trends in this area ongoing for the last 65 years, but also on properly planned and initiated political, economical and security actions.