JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting Brazil IT... · JPMorgan Brazil...

19
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting September 2015 Sophie Bosch de Hood, Executive Director Portfolio Manager [email protected]

Transcript of JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting Brazil IT... · JPMorgan Brazil...

FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting September 2015

Sophie Bosch de Hood, Executive Director Portfolio Manager [email protected]

1 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

(%) 30/4/14 – 30/4/15

30/4/13 – 30/4/14

30/4/12 – 30/4/13

30/4/11 – 30/4/12

30/4/10 – 30/4/11

Portfolio return -14.6% -24.4% 4.4 -10.0 14.7

Index -9.5% -17.1% 0.2 -13.0 5.3

Ordinary share price return -11.9% -26.0% -2.7 -15.3 9.3

JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc to 30th April 2015 – 12 month rolling returns Performance

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Inception Date: 26 April 2010 Benchmark History - 26 April 2010 To Current - MSCI Brazil 10/40 Total Return Net GBP. Portfolio return: NAV to NAV, net of fees with income reinvested in GBP. Past Performance is not an indication of future performance.

2 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

12 Months to 30th April 2015 %

Portfolio return -14.6%

Index -9.5%

Ordinary share price return -11.9%

JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc Performance

12 Months to 31st July 2015 %

Portfolio return -32.7%

Index -31.8%

Annualised Performance since inception – 31st July 2015 %

Portfolio return -10.9%

Index -10.8% Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Inception Date: 26 April 2010 Benchmark History - 26 April 2010 To Current - MSCI Brazil 10/40 Total Return Net GBP. Portfolio return: NAV to NAV, net of fees with income reinvested in GBP. Past Performance is not an indication of future performance.

The 12 months to end April were a challenging period for Brazilian equities, with sentiment driven more by political developments than by corporate fundamental

The dominant event of the period was October’s presidential election. To the market’s dismay, the outcome of the closely fought contest was a preservation of the status quo

The steep decline in natural resource prices in the second half of 2014 was a further headwind for Brazil’s commodity-heavy market over the review period

Against this turbulent backdrop, the trust’s net asset value and share price underperformed the benchmark

3 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Emerging markets remain under pressure

-4%

-20%

-4% -8%

-25%

2%

-8% -2%

3%

-10% -16%

-7%

21%

-3%

-20%

-75%

-55%

-35%

-15%

5%

25%

45%

EM Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia China Korea Taiwan India Malaysia Indonesia Poland Russia SouthAfrica

Turkey

Dividend Valuation Chg EPS Growth (Lcl) Currency effect Total Return

Sources of total returns for YTD 2015

Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, Factset, as of 31st July 2015 Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator for future performance. EPS = earnings per share

4 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Performance of MSCI Brazil

Source: Factset, MSCI Brazil 10/40, July 31, 2015. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

MSCI Brazil 10/40 (Rebased Dec 2000 = 100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

5 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Aug 94 Aug 97 Aug 00 Aug 03 Aug 06 Aug 09 Aug 12 Jul 15

MSCI EMMSCI BrazilEM AverageBrazil Average

Valuations: Brazil & emerging markets

Source: Factset as of 31st July 2015 BR = Brazil, CL = Chile, CN = China, CO = Colombia, CZ = Czech Republic, EG = Egypt, HU = Hungary, IN = India, ID = Indonesia, SK = South Korea, MX = Mexico, PE = Peru, PL = Poland, RU = Russia, ZA = South Africa, TR = Turkey.

Price to book

0

8

16

24

32

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

SK CN

PE PL

HU

RU

BR

CO

EG

CZ

TR

ID

MX

IN CL ZA

PH

TH MY

Monthly price to earnings Price to earnings and price to book

Pric

e to

ear

ning

s

TW

6 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Continued economic slowdown

Source: Consensus Economics, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Domestic demand is defined as public and private consumption plus investment. External demand is defined as exports. Guide to the Markets – Brazil. Data as of 31st July 2015

GDP estimates in negative territory

Trend in the same direction

GDP estimates, calendar year (%)

GTM – Brazil | Page 6

7 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Brazil has historically seen big GDP growth swings

Source: MacData, JPMorgan Database, data from 1968 to end 2014. Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator for future performance..

Source: GDP growth per annum

-6%

-2%

2%

6%

10%

14%

18%

1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

8 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

What do the headlines say?

Source: Publications listed. The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. The use of the above company logos is in no way an endorsement for JPMAM investment management services. Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator for future performance

“A Challenging August for Dilma”

These 5 Facts Explain Brazil’s Crippling Scandals

“Two Brazilian executives arrested as Petrobras probe hits utility”

Brazil: 10 good reasons to think the two-month-old government will go

“Brazil is suffering from recession and scandal”

Brazil downgrade threat is a real danger sign

“The vanishing surplus”

The dodgiest duo in the suspect six

9 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Currency valuation and support

The currency is in our favour after many years

REER vs CARRY

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Data as of 24th August 2015 REER (real effective exchange rate) relative to fair value (export-adjusted 10 year average REER) on the x axis and policy rate on the y axis. CARRY (a currency with a high Information Ratio) Countries over the line of best fit provide good carry for their currency valuation

MY CN

TW

RU

ID

TH KR MX

BR

IN

CO

TR

PL HU

ZA

EG

CL PH

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Polic

y R

ate

less

US

REER Relative to Fair Value CHEAP EXPENSIVE

LOW

CAR

RY

HIG

H CA

RRY

JP SG

AU

US

10 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Currency depreciation is making life more affordable

Aspirin (10 tablets) Brazil 2014: £1.21 UK 2014: £0.30

Source: Company websites. Brazilian prices shown as GBP as at 28th August 2014. UK prices taken from Tesco.com and Amazon.co.uk. Apple Ipad is previous version of mini Ipad 32gb, wi-fi with retina display. Companies and products shown for illustrative purposes only not to be taken as advice or a recommendation. The use of the above company logos is in no way an endorsement for JPMAM investment management services

Apple Ipad Brazil 2014: £485 UK 2014: £260

Coca-Cola (1 litre)) Brazil 2014: £1.30 UK 2014: £1.50

Milk (1 litre) Brazil 2014: £0.73 UK 2014: £0.60

Nappies Brazil 2014: £8.26 UK 2014: £6.00

Shampoo Brazil 2014: £4.30 UK 2014: £4.00

2015: Brazil: £0.54

2015: Brazil: £0.54

2015: Brazil: £3.83

2015: Brazil: £1.28

2015: Brazil: £339

2015: Brazil: £4.41

11 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Investment example: Valid

A leading provider of identification systems, payment methods, SIM cards and digital certification.

Economics – Strong cash flow generation and balance sheet

– Average Return on Equity of 20% over the last five years

Duration – Historically good at identifying and adapting technology to

meet client needs

– Business and geographic diversification

Governance – Listed on the Novo Mercado

– Knowledgeable and experienced management team

– Minimum payout of 50% since 2012

Source: Company presentation. BTG Pactual XVI Brasil CEO Conference. As of 13th February 2015. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities.

Adapting technology to meet client demands

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Net debt/ EBITDA*: 1.2x (as of August 2015) Operate in Brazil, US and 14 other countries

12 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Investment example: Suzano

Economics: – One of the main beneficiaries of a weak Brazilian Real – Conclusion of a major pulp capacity increase has substantially reduced

cash needs – Ramp up of new plant will boost Suzano’s cash generation

Duration: – Brazil enjoys an structural competitive advantage in pulp production due to:

(i) excellent climate conditions, (ii) vast and productive land, and (iii) abundant water availability.

– Consequently, harvesting cycle is relatively short – Low cost producer in a global context and vertical integration indicate

strong business resilience

Corporate Governance: – Family controlled with dual share listing – No tag-along rights for minority shareholders

Source: Company reports, Bloomberg J.P. Morgan Asset Management, data as of end June 2015. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities.

Vertically integrated pulp and paper company

13 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Investment example: Weg

The global solution in electric machines and automation

• Economics:

– Outstanding returns through the cycle, about 20%

– Strong balance sheet (net cash position)

• Duration:

– Dominant player in Brazil (>70% market share)

– Early automation process kept competitiveness on Brazilian operation

– Diversified product lines

• Corporate Governance:

– Strong management focus on returns on invested capital

Source: Weg. As of July 2015. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities.

Strong earnings growth and international diversification

14 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Active and absolute sector positions

How are we positioned?

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio; holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.

JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc as of 31st July 2015

14.7

5.1 3.2 2.2

-1.1 -1.8 -3.4

-5.4 -6.3 -8.3 -10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Industrials ConsumerDiscretionary

Financials Health Care InformationTechnology

Utilities Telecoms ConsumerStaples

Materials Energy

Portfolio weight (%) 21.0 11.5 32.2 3.1 4.1 3.6 0.0 16.2 3.5 3.7

Benchmark MSCI Brazil 10/40 Total Return (Net) Index

Relative to benchmark (%)

15 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Conclusion

Brazil continues to provide a challenging investment landscape. The country is going through a prolonged economic recession but not a crisis.

Politics remains centre-stage and has impacted sentiment

The Brazilian Real has weakened materially

Brazil’s GDP continues to be revised downward. The second half of the year is shaping up to be more challenging than we first anticipated as the unemployment rate ticks up and real wage growth falls, but we believe we can continue to find attractive companies at all stages of the market cycle

Our continued focus on economics, duration and governance, lead us towards high quality companies that we believe are capable of delivering strong results

The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author as at August 2015, which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice

16 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Investment objective and risk profile

Fund objective

Aims to generate total returns, primarily in the form of capital, from a portfolio primarily invested in Brazilian focused companies. The Company may also invest up to 10% in companies in other Latin American countries. Equity holdings may be reduced to a minimum of 60% of gross assets if it is considered beneficial to performance.

Risk profile

The investment objective of a trust may allow some flexibility in terms in portfolio composition.

Exchange rate changes may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down as well as up.

Investments in emerging markets may involve a higher element of risk due to political and economic instability and underdeveloped markets and systems.

Investments in smaller companies may involve a higher degree of risk as these are usually more sensitive to price movements.

Where permitted, a trust may invest in other investment trusts that utilise gearing (borrowing) which will exaggerate market movements both up and down.

Shares in smaller companies and emerging markets are generally traded less frequently than those in larger companies and established markets. This means that there may be difficulty in both buying and selling shares and individual share prices may be subject to short-term price fluctuations.

External factors may cause an entire asset class to decline in value. Prices and values of all shares or all bonds could decline at the same time.

The Company may borrow to finance further investment (gearing). The use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV) meaning that a relatively small movement, down or up, in the value of the Company’s assets will result in a magnified movement, in the same direction, of that NAV.

Please refer to the Fund’s prospectus or Key Investor Information Document (KIID)for more information relating to the Fund.

JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc

17 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

Glossary

GEM Global Emerging Markets

EM Emerging Markets

DM Developed Markets

PE Price/Earnings ratio

PB Price/Book

PM Portfolio Manager

ROE Return on Equity

o/w Overweight

u/w Underweight

ROA Return on assets

BV Book Value

ADV Average Daily Volume

YoY Year on Year

EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization

EPS Earnings per share

DPS Dividends per share

REER Real effective exchange rate

Carry The difference between the interest rate in the country in question and the interest rate in the United States of America

IR Information Ratio

AR Argentina

BR Brazil

CL Chile

CN China

CO Colombia

CZ Czech Republic

EG Egypt

HU Hungary

ID Indonesia

IN India

KR South Korea

MX Mexico

MY Malaysia

PH Philippines

PL Poland

RU Russia

TH Thailand

TR Turkey

TW Taiwan

ZA South Africa

18 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

This is a promotional document and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the product(s) or underlying overseas investments. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment product(s), there can be no assurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates worldwide. You should note that if you contact J.P. Morgan Asset Management by telephone those lines may be recorded and monitored for legal, security and training purposes. You should also take note that information and data from communications with you will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with the EMEA Privacy Policy which can be accessed through the following website http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/privacy. Investment is subject to documentation (Investment Trust Profiles, Key Features and Terms and Conditions), copies of which can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited. Issued by JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No: 288553. Registered address: 25 Bank St, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP. 4d03c02a8002b6a7