Stop Speaking to Ourselves Using Plain English, Simple Graphics and Message Control to Build a Weather-Ready Nation

Jim MaczkoWarning Coordination Meteorologist

NOAA National Weather ServiceGrand Rapids, Michigan

2014 Great Lakes Operational Meteorological Workshop

Weather-Ready Nation

● Improve weather decision services for events that threaten lives and livelihoods

● Deliver water forecasting services to support management of the Nation’s water supply

● Enhance climate services to help understand and adapt to climate-related risks

● Improve information in support of economic productivity

● Enhance forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems

● Sustain a workforce and infrastructure to meet our mission

Simple Enough? What Does This Really Mean for Forecast Offices?

U.S. Weather-Ready Nation Goals

Communicate Better

It Means that Forecast Offices Can Help Build a Weather-Ready Nation

Doing One Thing!

1) What Needs to Be Communicated

2) When Information Delivery is Needed

3) Where to Deliver this Information

4) How Can We Improve on 1-3

At Grand Rapids We Focus On…

How Do We Communicate Better?

1) What Needs to Be Communicated

2) When Information Delivery is Needed

3) Where to Deliver this Information

4) How Can We Improve on 1-3

At Grand Rapids We Focus On…

What Good Are Our Efforts If No One Knows What We Are Saying?

What Needs to Be Communicated?

When a Mommie and a Daddie love each other very much and they want their family to be more than just the two of them they make a wish. When their wish came true a stork dropped off a baby boy on the steps in front of the house and now we have a BABY ON BOARD

What Is Needed What We Often Say

What Needs to Be Communicated?

What Is Needed What We Often SaySevere Thunderstorm Warning

• Anywhere County• Until 900pm• Hail - Golf Ball or Larger • Wind - 85mph• Take Shelter Now

Images and Words that are SimpleUSE PLAIN ENGLISH – NO ACRONYMS

Keep the Why of Weather to OURSELVESScience Talk is Good Internally – Does Nothing to Help People Take Action

What People Need to Know to Make DecisionsWhat, When, Where, How Long, How Certain

Especially What Weather Typically Results In – POTENTIAL IMPACTS

What We Know, When We Know ItThe Perfect Forecast Always Occurs as Weather is Happening

Planning, Preparation, Response Begin Days Before Weather Happens

What Needs to Be Communicated?

If We Have to Explain It (to Anyone Other Than Weather Nerds)We Must Find Another Way to Show It or Say It

Keep This Stuff to Ourselves!

Cold Front Warm Front

Low Pressure System

1 to 2 inches

of Rain

Wind Chills of -20 to -30

QPF

POPS

CWA

Upper Level Disturbance

30% Chance

Cap

CAPE

Action StageZones

Keep it Brief – Hit the High Points - Most Important First

Avoid Wordy Phrases & Watch/Warning/Advisory Terms

What, When, Where - No Why

Use Images That Speak For Us – No Explanation Necessary

As Issued Alternate Using Lessons Learned

Keys to Improved Communication

1) What Needs to Be Communicated

2) When Information Delivery is Needed

3) Where to Deliver this Information

4) How Can We Improve on 1-3

At Grand Rapids We Focus On…

Are We Doing Our Job If No One Gets Information Before

They Need It?

Media MeteorologistsThe Message Carriers for the Masses

• Help Us Get The Word Out Early and Often• Increase Public Awareness, Encourage Proper Action• Use Their Own Message if Ours is Not There to Help

Include: Television Personalities, Web Bloggers, Online Newspapers, etc.

When Do They Need New Information?

Television MeteorologistsAt Least 30-60 Minutes Before News Broadcasts

(Many broadcasts starting at 4am or 4pm now)

All MediaUpdates Needed All The Time

When is Our Information Needed?

Decision Makers Tasked with SafetyGet Life Back to Normal As Soon As Possible

• Prepare for Action, Plan for Response/Recovery• Use Multiple Sources – Especially Local Media

Include: Local/State/Federal Emergency Managers, Road Crews, School Superintendents, Recovery Agencies, etc.

Emergency Management & Recovery AgenciesDays, Many Days or Weeks in Advance

All Decision MakersEarly Enough Today to Plan for Tomorrow

When Do They Need New Information?

When is Our Information Needed?

330am 345am 400am

Oct 2013 - Apr 2014 79% 96% 99%

2012: Jan 1 - May 9 51%

330pm 345pm 400pm

Oct 2013 - Apr 2014 79% 96% 99%

2012: Jan 1 - May 9 73%

Grand Rapids Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion Delivery TimesDiscussions include both new Short Term and Long Term Forecast

The General Public Will Benefit Greatly if We Meet the Delivery Needs of Core Partners

Television Media Can Use All Traditional Services if Delivered by 330am/330pm

Especially the Area Forecast Discussion

Long Term Goal = 100%

So We Focus On: 330am/330pm for Delivering Our Message

Core Partner Delivery Needs

Decision Makers The Earlier in the Day Information is Provided the Better Can Plan Effectively if Information Delivered by 1pm

At Least 2 Hours Notice for Webinars Provide Consistency in Delivery of Emails/Notifications

If the Forecast is Wrong, What is the Next Most Likely Outcome Larger the Impact the Greater Notice & More Updates Needed

• Event Driven Webinars: Typically Conducted at 1pm – 1 to 3 days before weather• Email Notifications For Webinars: Minimum 2 Hours Notice Before Webinar• Use ONLY Two Subject Lines: NWS Weather Message, NWS Webinar Scheduled• Email Notifications Sent: 24-48 Hours before Weather, Greater Impact = Greater Notice

The General Public Will Benefit Greatly if We Meet the Delivery Needs of Core Partners

Core Partner Delivery Needs

So We Focus On: Providing Sufficient Time for Planning

1) What Needs to Be Communicated

2) When Information Delivery is Needed

3) Where to Deliver this Information

4) How Can We Improve on 1-3

At Grand Rapids We Focus On…

Why Do We Deliver Information That Forces People to Spend Time Searching and Sorting?

Write Discussions for All AudiencesThe Discussion is No Longer Just a Briefing Tool for Weather Nerds

It is a Way for Us to Provide All Customers our Thoughts, Concerns, What Ifs

(What, When Where)

Severe Thunderstorms likely Wednesday afternoon mostly west of US 131 in the afternoon and early evening. At this time...large hail is the main expected threat with limited potential for damaging winds.  Multiple rounds of storms will be possible with heavy rain at times.

Storms should be moving fast enough that only some minor localized flooding should occur. Some flash flooding could be possible if multiple showers affect the same areas in a short period of time.

(Then Confidence and Some Why)

WINDS ALOFT TURN SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN UNUSUAL DUAL JET PATTERN WILL PROVIDE GOOD ASCENT OVER WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK   DISTURBANCES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON  EASTERLY SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS. THE SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE CONTRASTING LOW LEVEL AND JET LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE  SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A XXX TO XXX LINE. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH STORMS  WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY FORM INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS  THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN SECOND  DUE TO FASTER STORM MOTION THAN TODAY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS  ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

Instead of…. Write Something Like...

Deliver Impact Potential First - Stay Out of the DictionaryRed and Underlined = Potential Impact Weather

Deliver Simple Graphics, Emails

Subject: NWS Weather Message

Snow tonight through early Wednesday across all of Lower Michigan* Some hazardous travel conditions expected* Generally 1-3“, higher amounts near the lakeshore

Additional information* Above Freezing Temperatures Likely Thursday* Ice jam potential continues into next week* Light snow or mixed precipitation possible Thursday* Greater potential for snow and mixed precipitation this weekend

Attention Spans Are Short – Time Available is LimitedEvery Slide, Image, Email – Needs to Be Understood Quickly Without Explaining

Winter 2012-13: A First Step

Pros Simple, Plain English How Common/Rare/Historic is Weather Visual Context to How Bad it Could Be Typical Time to Getting Back to Normal

Cons Not Self-Contained Missing Where and When No Mention of the Weather No Forecast Confidence Designed for One Category Only

Traffic Light Slide providing Overall Context to Expected Weather

Significant Confusion OccurredWhen Check Placed Between Two Categories

Learned From our Friends Overseas

Winter 2013-14: A New Approach

Winter 2013-14: A New ApproachGraphical Improvement, Adding Social Science, Customer Needs

Possible or ExpectedExpected = Yes

Possible = Maybe

Will This Happen?Near Certain = near 100%Better than 50-50 Chance

Unlikely = 0-20%

Geographic Display of Potential Impacts

Easy to Understand - Meets Customer Needs

Winter 2013-14: A New ApproachGraphical Improvement, Adding Social Science, Customer Needs

Winter Weather or Winter Storm

Common versus Rare

Weather Parameters Always the Same

Especially Ice Accumulation

Colors Mean Colors

Special Thanks for Content CoordinationPat Boyle of UK Met Office and

Megan Taylor of the National Weather Service Training Center

The Long Term Vision Nationally

To Go From This… To Something Like This…

1) What Needs to Be Communicated

2) When Information Delivery is Needed

3) Where to Deliver this Information

4) How Can We Improve on 1-3

At Grand Rapids We Focus On…

Ask - Listen - HearLearn - Adapt - Improve

ALWAYS

Thank You! Questions?James.Maczko@noaa.gov