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Transcript of 1 Current and Future needs of Numerical Weather Prediction Guidance at the NOAA Aviation Weather...
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Current and Future needs of Numerical Weather
Prediction Guidance at the NOAA Aviation Weather
Center
Jason LevitTechniques Development Meteorologist
Aviation Weather CenterKansas City, MO
Current and Future needs of Numerical Weather
Prediction Guidance at the NOAA Aviation Weather
Center
Jason LevitTechniques Development Meteorologist
Aviation Weather CenterKansas City, MO
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AWC Future NWP GuidanceAWC Future NWP Guidance
NAM
GFS
FIM
SREFWRF RR
UKMET
VSREF HRRR
SPC ARW
HIRES ARW
HIRES NMM
HRRRe
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Aviation Weather Testbed Support
Aviation Weather Testbed Support
AWRP
FIP/CIP
GTG
High Resolutio
n Guidance
Spring Experiment
Operational Bridging
Traffic Impact
Convective Initiation
Ensembles
Calibration
ECFP Enhancement
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High Resolution Model Guidance
High Resolution Model Guidance
10K
20K
30K
Boundary Layer
• Convective initiation• Ceiling and visibility• Low-level turbulence• Icing
• Improved boundary layer structure from mixed model/mixed physics ensembles
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High Resolution Model Guidance
High Resolution Model Guidance
10K
20K
30K
Mid Atmosphere
• Microphysics!
• Detailed icing• Improved mountain wave turbulence
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High Resolution Model Guidance
High Resolution Model Guidance
10K
20K
30K Convection
• Storm intensity/Storm top• Radar data assimilation• Ensembles• Day 2 and Day 3 planning (ECFP)
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Ensemble GuidanceEnsemble Guidance
High Resolution
(4km)Calibration
Probabilistic
Forecasts
Improved user tools and forecaster workflow
Data Volume/Archiv
e
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Volcanic Ash Model Guidance
Volcanic Ash Model Guidance
• FIM• HYSPLIT• Improved ash concentration• Improved chemical species concentration