Jean-Claude Baumgarten President World Travel & Tourism ...€¦ · Market exchange rates % year...

Jean-Claude BaumgartenPresident

World Travel & Tourism Council

* WTTC * Global Overview* Travel & Tourism Growth* Global Trends* Important Considerations* Questions & Answers

Global Perspective

Abercrombie & Kent Accor

American AirlinesAmerican Express

Avis, Inc.British Airways plc

Canadian Pacific Hotels CorporationDelta Air Lines

East Japan Railway CompanyHertzIberia

Regent International Hotels The Promus Companies

Thrifty Rent-a-CarUnited Airlines

Westin Hotels & Resorts

Founding Members

WTTC PurposeTo raise awareness of the importance of Travel & Tourism and to work with governments to realise the full potential of the industry in creating sustainable wealth and jobs.

Purpose

Visitor arrivals

vs. Economic

impact

In economic terms…..

Travel & Tourism buried in

other industry accounts

In economic terms…..

Based on United Nations TSA Framework WTTC Simulated TSA - For 16 Years Year on Year research for 176 countriesTravel & Tourism Economy contribution Constructed from international data sourcesCompare Apples with Apples

Simulated Tourism Satellite Accounting…

WTTC introduction of Travel &

Tourism Economy Concept

Raising Awareness

Regional Initiatives

Working with governments

APEC: WTTC advises APEC on Travel & TourismChina: Building relations with industry & governmentEuropean Union: Informal advisors to EC President India: 25 Members, strong government relations achieved real change with Prime Minister and the entire Cabinet Middle East: 10 Members strong, building toward Global Travel & Tourism Summit, Dubai 2008

Working with governments

* WTTC * Global Overview* Travel & Tourism Growth* Travel & Tourism Trends* Important Considerations* Questions & Answers

Global Perspective

Robust global growth to continue…

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Source: Oxford Economics

World: GDP growth

PPP exchange

rates

ForecastMarket exchange rates

% year

Global Overview…

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% quarter annualised

Forecast

Source: Oxford Economics

GDP growth

Robust global growth to continue…

Global Overview…

Growth rapid despite oil-price surge,…

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009Source: Oxford Economics

$/barrel

Real(1995 US prices)

Nominal

Oil price

F'cast

Global Overview…

…buoyed by rising per capita incomes…

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20200

20

40

60

80

100

120Outbound Chinesetourists (LHS)Travel spend (RHS)

Chinese outbound tourism marketTourist mn

Source : WTO

US$ bn

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

11.11.2

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

5

10

15

20

25

Frequency of overseas trips and rising percapita incomeNumber of trips

Source : Oxford Economics

GDP per capita

Trips per heads

£ 000s

Global Overview…

…& diversification strategies…

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Middle East's emergence as a destination2000=100


Visitor numbers - Total

Visitor numbers - Middle East

Global Overview…

Greater integration also boosting business travel…

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 20170

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Global business travel% year


as % of total service imports (RHS)

Growth (LHS)

%Forecast

Global Overview…

Travel & Tourism developments in 2007-2017…

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Industry direct TT GDP and economy as a whole% y on y


TT industry GDP

Total GDP

Global Overview…

The major stories: the rise of the MiddleEast…

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Share of global overnight stays - Middle East%


6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Tourism's share of investment & GDP in the Middle East%


Investment

GDP

Global Overview…

China’s growing role in Travel & Tourism…

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

China's share of the global tourism economy%


Overnight stays

GDP

Visitor exports (value)

Global Overview…


Global Perspective

0 2 4 6 8

Employment

T&T Econ. GDP

Employment

T&T Industry GDP

Visitor Exports

Capital Investment

Government Expend.

Business Travel

Personal T&T

Total Demand

Ten Year 2007 2006

2006 saw further broad-based strength in the tourism economy. In 2007, growth is not expected to be quite so dynamic as in 2006 as growth moves generally closer to the trend rates embodied in the 10-year annualized forecast.

World

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

North America

European Union

Northeast Asia

Other Western Europe

Latin America

Central and Eastern Europe

Oceania

Southeast Asia

Middle East

South Asia

North Africa

Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2008-2017(Percent Annualized)

2007

T&

T E

cono

my

GD

P(P

erce

nt o

f Tot

al)

World Average

TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY GDP THE WORLD

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

T&T Economy GDP

North America


2007

T&

T E

cono

my

GD

P(P

erce

nt o

f Tot

al)

World Average

Mexico 4.8United States 3.6Canada 3.4

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

T&T Economy GDP

European Union


2007

T&

T E

cono

my

GD

P(P

erce

nt o

f Tot

al)

World Average

Romania 6.9Latvia 6.5Lithuania 6.0Estonia 5.5Slovakia 5.5Czech Republic 5.3Bulgaria 4.5Hungary 4.5Luxembourg 4.1Poland 4.1Greece 4.0Slovenia 3.9Cyprus 3.9Ireland 3.7Malta 3.7Portugal 3.2Finland 3.2United Kingdom 3.1Belgium 3.0Germany 2.9Spain 2.9France 2.8Sweden 2.8Denmark 2.0Austria 1.9Netherlands 1.8Italy 1.3

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

T&T Economy GDP

Northeast Asia


2007

T&

T E

cono

my

GD

P(P

erce

nt o

f Tot

al)

World Average

China 8.3Hong Kong 7.0Korea, Republic 5.1Macau 5.0Chinese Taipei 3.8Japan 2.8

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

T&T Economy GDP

Southeast Asia


2007

T&

T E

cono

my

GD

P(P

erce

nt o

f Tot

al)

World Average

Vietnam 6.9Malaysia 6.5Laos 6.3Cambodia 5.6Indonesia 5.3Thailand 5.2Philippines 4.7Brunei 4.6Singapore 4.4Burma 4.0Papua NG 2.1

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

T&T Economy GDP

South Asia


2007

T&

T E

cono

my

GD

P(P

erce

nt o

f Tot

al)

World Average

India 7.3Nepal 5.9Sri Lanka 5.6Bangladesh 5.5Maldives 5.2Pakistan 4.8

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Employment

T&T Econ. GDP

Employment

T&T Industry GDP

Visitor Exports

Capital Investment

Government Expend.

Business Travel

Personal T&T

Total Demand

Ten Year 2007 2006

2007 is expected to see an even better performance than last year, as the tourism economy gathers momentum. Growth over the next ten years is expected to average over 7%pa.

India

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Employment

T&T Econ. GDP

Employment

T&T Industry GDP

Visitor Exports

Capital Investment

Government Expend.

Business Travel

Personal T&T

Total Demand

Ten Year 2007 2006

2006 was a good year for Japan’s Travel & Tourism economy with most categories exceeding the 10-year forecast. The 2007 forecast is equally positive as rising income levels in Asia boost tourism within the region.

Japan

0 5 10 15 20 25

Employment

T&T Econ. GDP

Employment

T&T Industry GDP

Visitor Exports

Capital Investment

Government Expend.

Business Travel

Personal T&T

Total Demand

Ten Year 2007 2006

Continuation of extraordinary growth in most categories of tourism activity boosted economy GDP by 15% last year. In 2007, a pick-up in visitor exports –which will be even stronger in 2008, the Olympic year –supports industry GDP growth.

China

-2 0 2 4 6

Employment

T&T Econ. GDP

Employment

T&T Industry GDP

Visitor Exports

Capital Investment

Government Expend.

Business Travel

Personal T&T

Total Demand

Ten Year 2007 2006

2006 was another good year across the board for US Travel & Tourism despite high gasoline prices. 2007 forecasts are expected to be below this pace, partly reflecting the general slowdown in the US economy.

United States

The Top Ten Lists

2007 - 2017

1 Montenegro 10.12 China 9.13 India 7.94 Croatia 7.85 Congo, Dem Rep 7.86 Vietnam 7.57 Romania 7.48 Namibia 7.19 Hong Kong 7.010 Chad 7.0

WTTC’s Top Ten Industry Growers - Demand(2008-2017 Annualized Real Growth, Percent)

1 China 3,222,2802 India 2,714,8903 Brazil 1,896,9234 Japan 1,868,8035 Mexico 1,321,6716 US 1,085,7007 Vietnam 890,9168 Pakistan 828,6409 Spain 812,77910 France 808,848

WTTC’s Top Ten Job Creators(2008-2017 Employment Growth, Jobs)


Global Perspective

People

Global Trends

World Population Continues To Grow, But Slower

The Number of Children Is Heading Into Decline

The World’s Labor Force Peaking Around 2040

But The Number of Elderly Exploding - Especially in Asia

Sources Of Information Used When Planning Travel

Sources Of Information Used When Planning Travel

(Leisure Travelers Who Use Airlines/Hotels, 2007)(Leisure Travelers Who Use Airlines/Hotels, 2007)

5%

66%

23%6%

Travel agent only

Internet only

Travel agent and Internet

Neither travel agent norInternet

Source: YPB&R

Infrastructure Constraints

Current Issues

September 11, 2001 Spring 2003

December 26, 2004 September 11, 2007

Global Change

Environment

Current Issues

Policy Messages & Publications

The Blueprint for New Tourism

•Governments recognising Travel & Tourism as a top priority

•Business Balancing economics with people, culture and environment

•A shared pursuit of long-term growth and prosperity

Jean-Claude Baumgarten President World Travel & Tourism ...€¦ · Market exchange rates % year...

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