ITRS More than Moore

Workshop

Highlights from iNEMI's

Roadmap Activities

Grace O’Malley

iNEMI

Manager of European Operations

April 25, 2012

Agenda

• Introduction

• iNEMI Roadmap Process

• Highlights from the iNEMI Roadmap work

– Medical PEG - Healthcare

– Automotive PEG

– Energy Storage and Conversion TWG - Energy

– Solid State Illumination TWG - Lighting

• MtM –Challenges and Opportunities

2

About iNEMI

4

About iNEMI

4

International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) is an

industry-led consortium of over 99 global manufacturers, suppliers,

industry associations, government agencies and universities. Working

on advancing manufacturing technology since 1994.

Visit us at www.inemi.org.

5 Key Deliverables:

• Technology Roadmaps

• Collaborative Deployment

Projects

• Research Priorities Documents

• Proactive Forums

• Position Papers

4 Major Focus Areas:

• Miniaturization

• Environment

• Energy

• Medical Electronics

Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics

Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future.

iNEMI Scope

5

Software Solutions

Marketing Design Manufacturing Order Fulfillment

Supply Chain Management Information Technology

Logistics Communications

Business Practices

Build to Order

Materials

Components

Customer

Equipment

Materials Transformation

Collaborative Design

Lifecycle Solutions Software

Solutions

Identify and close technology gaps, which includes the development and integration of the electronics industry supply infrastructure.

6

Product

Needs

Technology

Evolution

GAP

Analysis/

Technical

Plan

Research

Projects

Implementation

iNEMI Methodology

Competitive

Solutions

Roadmap Project

Completion

Industry Solution

Needed

Academia

Government

iNEMI

Members

No Work

Required or

Outsourced

Available

to Market

Place

Global

Participation

Disruptive

Technology

Roadmap

iNEMI

Roadmap

Statistics for the 2011 iNEMI Roadmap

• Roadmaps the needs for 2011-2021

• > 575 participants

• > 310 companies/organizations

• 18 countries from 4 continents

• 21 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)

• 6 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)

• > 1800 pages of information

8

Impact Roadmap used by industry to identify future market & technology needs.

Used by government & research organizations to identify and fund new research initiatives to address industries needs.

9

2011 Roadmap Technology Working Groups (TWGs)

Organic PCB Board

Assembly Customer

RF Components &

Subsystems

Optoelectronics Large Area, Flexible Electronics

Energy Storage &

Conversion Systems

Modeling, Simulation,

and Design

Packaging &

Component

Substrates Semiconductor

Technology

Final

Assembly

Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)

Passive Components

Information

Management

Test, Inspection &

Measurement

Environmentally

Conscious

Electronics

Ceramic

Substrates

Thermal

Management

Connectors

MEMS/

Sensors

Red=Business Green=Engineering Light Blue=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem

Solid State Illumination

Photovoltaics

10 10

Roadmap Development

Product Emulator Groups Technology WG

Semiconductor Technology

Design Technologies

Manufacturing Technologies

Comp./Subsyst. Technologies

Modeling, Thermal, etc.

Board Assy, Test, etc.

Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc.

2013 Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution

Business Processes

Prod Lifecycle Information Mgmt.

Optoelectronics and

Optical Storage

Organic Printed

Circuit Boards

Magnetic and

Optical Storage

Supply Chain

Management

Semiconductors

iNEMI

Information

Management

TWG

iNEMI

Mass Data

Storage TWG

iNEMI / IPC / EIPC

/ TPCA

Organic PWB

TWG

iNEMI / ITRS /

MIG/PSMA

Packaging

TWG

iNEMI

Board

Assembly

TWG

Interconnect

Substrates—Ceramic

iNEMI Roadmap

iNEMI

Optoelectronics

TWG

Fourteen Contributing Organizations

11

iNEMI / MIG

/ ITRS

MEMS

TWG

iNEMI

Passives

TWG

ITRS / iNEMI Roadmap

Comparison

•12

The iNEMI Technology Roadmap is focused

on the business & technology areas (27)

associated with the electronics’ industries

global supply chain. It is a “Market Pull”

roadmap that defines desired product

attributes & asks what technologies are

needed to support them.

iNEMI’s large OEM membership is a benefit

and an advantage in needs identification.

The iNEMI Roadmap collaborates with 14

other organizations including the IPC and

ITRS in developing it’s chapters.

The roadmap is the starting point of the

iNEMI process for identifying technology or

business gaps. The iNEMI gap identification

process is distinctive and sets the iNEMI

roadmap apart from others.

The ITRS is focused on semiconductor

technology and is a “Technology Push”

roadmap that looks at the progress of

technology and asks what products

subsequently can be developed.

The ITRS roadmap utilizes Moore's Law and

heuristic equations as its foundation.

The ITRS collaborates with the iNEMI

Roadmap in several areas to drive product

attribute needs down to the semiconductor

technology level.

The Packaging and MEMS chapters of both

roadmaps are developed by a common set

of leaders and subsets of participants.

•13

Design and System Drivers

ITRS-iNEMI Domain Space

•Chip level •System level

•Tech

•requirements

•Market

•requirements

•iNEMI

•(emulators)

•ITRS

•(Drivers)

•*Source: ITRS Design/System Drivers TWG Chairman, Dr. Juan-Antonio Carballo

•14

Moore’s Law & More

More than Moore: DiversificationM

ore

Mo

ore

: M

inia

turi

zati

on

Mo

re M

oo

re:

Min

iatu

rizati

on

Combining SoC and SiP: Higher Value System

sBaselin

e C

MO

S:

CP

U, M

em

ory

, L

og

icBiochips

Sensors

Actuators

HV

PowerAnalog/RF Passives

130nm

90nm

65nm

45nm

32nm

22nm...V

130nm

90nm

65nm

45nm

32nm

22nm...V

Information

Processing

Digital content

System-on-chip

(SoC)

Interacting with people

and environment

Non-digital content

System-in-package

(SiP)

Beyond CMOS

•Traditional

•ORTC Models •[

Ge

om

etr

ica

l &

Eq

uiv

ale

nt

sc

alin

g]

•Sc

alin

g (M

ore

Mo

ore

) •Functional Diversification (More than Moore)

•HVPower •Passives

•Sc

alin

g (M

ore

Mo

ore

)

Medical Electronics PEG Status

Fred Sporon-Fiedler, Micro Systems Eng.

Overview

• Medical Electronics Market and Trends

• 2013 Medical PEG Chapter Highlights

• Summary

– Key challenges and opportunities

17

Digital Health

• Patient care enhancement

- New and Unique Medical Products

- Monitor Systems

- Sensor Technology

- Improved Diagnostics

• Wireless technology for data

transfer

- Instant and remote monitoring

- Power transfer by RF

- Off-load computing and data storage

to remote host system, outside the

device.

In the past 12 years, growth, innovation and

miniaturization have lead to major advances in medical

electronics manufacturing and the therapies they deliver.

18

Medical Market and Trends

• Globally, the number of persons 60 and older was 600

million in 2000. It is expected to double to 1.2 billion by

2025 (W.H.O.)

• There are over 40 million persons in the U.S. over 65 years

of age (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Currently, the U.S. spends 1.75 Trillion dollars (over 16% of

its gross domestic product) on health care

• It is estimated that 2012 annual spending on medical

devices / electronics is approaching 100 Billion dollars

MEDICAL MARKET

2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

2011

$91Bn6% of

Electronics Industry

4.4% CAAGR2011-2017

3.9% CAAGR

2017-2023

$118Bn

$148Bn

$Bn

$100

$200

$150

$50

0

N212 .bes-INEMI med

0Americas Japan Europe Asia/

ROW

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% Production 2010

Source: Prismark 2012 iNEMI Update

Production concentrated in America & Europe – but will change

20

MEDICAL MARKET

• Market size: 100 B$ Electronics Revenue

• 2010 Non-IT Medical Units

MEDICAL MARKET- High Potential

Bubble Chart Ref: IBM Institute for Business Value,” The

future of connected health devices”

3 BILLION POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS FOR

CONNECTED HEALTH DEVICES

22 22

General Business Indicators are good

- High Growth of Tele-Medicine anticipated using multi functional

portable devices.

- Continued migration from prescriptive to preventive medicine

will drive increase in portable/wearable medical monitoring

devices.

- Emerging markets expected to have double digit growth.

- Focus on lower cost diagnostic equipment for developing

nations and rural areas.

- Regional assembly, design and distribution expected to

continue increase in SEA and China.

- U.S. market impacted by health care reform and conservative

regulatory stance by FDA.

- Long time to market; Hard to get suppliers engaged

- Price pressures throughout health care value chain

23

3 Categories in Medical Electronics Sector

1) Implanted products (those devices implanted in a human body) • Strict regulatory procedures

• Driven by battery life (low power loss) – this limits the use of certain components such as DRAM due to high energy consumption

• Validation and traceability

• Long term reliability paramount

• Long development cycles, primary assembly and design by OEMs

2) Portable products (those devices that are easily transported) • Cost parity with consumer / portables

• Dynamic market, needs fast response … 9 to 24 month product cycle time

• Mixed regulatory environment

• Mostly outsourced assembly and design

• Diagnostic Ultrasound in PDA size .. and smaller .. form factors

3) Diagnostic imaging devices and large scale equipment, e.g., MRI, CT • Larger scale (often similar to servers or telecom equipment)

• Often requires thermal management and heat sinking

• Utilizes commercial off-the-shelf components, when available

• Development cycle is shorter than implantables

• Application and design well suited to EMS environment

• Often does not require clean room or sterile assembly floor

24

Heart Failure Therapy: 5 year mortality rates as high as 50%,

Affects > 14M people (US, Europe & Japan)

Active technology developments on Miniaturization of therapy:

~12 cc to < 1 cc device

Technical Issues include:

Longer lifetime

Battery

Reliability

Patient safety

Implantable Example

Pacemakers – Currently the largest medical device market

US Annual:

– 750Kpatients/yr diagnosed, 500K implants annually

25

Market Drivers in Implantable Medical • Implantable therapy device modalities increasing

– New therapies in Cardiac Devices (4 chamber pacing/shocks) – Implantable monitoring – Neurostimulation therapies – Ophthalmic devices, deep brain stimulation etc…

• The average YoY growth rate for implantable products has been between 15-18% for the last 10 years , but slowing in U.S. due to regulatory shifts.

• Remote monitoring is becoming defacto standard. Increased demand for “external wireless telemetry”

Example: >250,000 patients are currently enrolled

in home / remote monitoring system.

These systems are communication devices that

interact with the implanted device and a host network system.

Source: S. Kelly,

MIT

Portable Devices

26

27

Current Market Drivers in Consumer Medical

• Broad range of devices being brought to market

Connected monitoring of biometric data

Game changer in health care cost model?

Examples:

28

Trends and Market Drivers in Medical Imaging

– Increased health awareness and preventive care leading to an

increased demand for diagnostic and imaging systems.

– Healthcare demands of 78M “US baby boomers” … clinician

shortage, global aging, technology expectation

– Development of higher power systems capable of higher patient

throughput, higher resolution, and a greater ability to discriminating

individual tissue types, et al.

– Medical imaging using video (for specific applications).

29

• Example of differences from last Roadmap - 3D SiP and Integrated Passives

Medical PEG Roadmap New challenges

Broader deployment of portable medical devices will

accelerate Miniaturization drive:

-Use of 3D SiP technology (w/wo TSV)

-Integration of discretes onto Si based integrated passive devices (for high volume products or stable

topologies in low volume products)

Increased use of MEMS

Source: ASE Group

30

Medical PEG New Challenges

Updates from Last Roadmap

- Addition of corrosive environment mitigations in reliability

section.

- Emphasis on Miniaturization via 3D SiP and IPD’s.

- Continued emphasis on huge potential and impact of Portable

equipment and wearable electronics and required data

handling. Wireless medical device systems now becoming

standard. Personal data device transmits implanted or worn device output to medical monitoring facility and physician.

31

MtM Opportunities within Medical

• Miniaturization, Energy efficiency …. - Nano-scale materials, coatings and conductors

- Use of MEMS

- Localized measurement – ex lab on a chip

- Gaseous and biological sensors – military and homeland security applications, as well as medical.

- Alternative Power and Rechargeable Batteries

- Self or bio powered systems

- New High Density Batteries MnO2, may lead to 10+ year life.

- Battery for new applications e.g. artificial retina (Sandia)

- Wearable, patient monitoring systems

- RF telemetry, offloading diagnostics from primary device

• All these advancements require solving complex problems involving materials management, energy constraints, data security, reliability and above all patient safety.

Automotive PEG Status

Jim Spall

Delphi With Contributions from

Bosch and Inventec

33

Automotive Product Emulator

• Situation Analysis

– Business Issues (Global)

• Auto industry experts predict a tight race this year between GM,

Volkswagen, Toyota, and the joint venture between Nissan and Renault.

– GM retakes title of top-selling global automaker

– 9.03 million in sales in 2011- up 7.6% from 2010

– Volkswagen AG came in second

– 8.16 million in sales in 2011- up 14% from 2010

• Factors that could effect the automotive recovery

– Debt crisis in Europe driving a global recession

– Gas prices in the U.S. above $4 per gallon

34

Automotive Product Emulator

• Situation Analysis

• Business Issues (North America)

– Americans felt more confident about the economy and there was pent-up demand

• Average age of vehicles was 10.8 years (record)

– 12.7 million vehicles sold in 2011

– 11.5 million vehicles sold in 2010

– GM sales rise 13 percent in 2011

• 2.5 million vehicles in the U.S.

– Ford sales rise 11 percent in 2011

• 2.1 million vehicles in the U.S.

– Chrysler sales rise 26 percent in 2011

• 1.37 million vehicles in the U.S.

35

Automotive Market

• Situation Analysis (Automotive Electronics)

2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

4.7% CAAGR

2011-2017

4.2% CAAGR

2017-2023

$211Bn

$270Bn

$Bn

$200

$400

$300

$100

0

2011

$160Bn

10% of

Electronics Industry

N212.bes-INEMI auto

0Americas Japan Europe Asia/

ROW

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% Production 2010

PrismarkData

Growth of In-car Electronics

• The major trends driving the demand for increased

electronics penetration in automobiles include:

– Stricter fuel economy and emissions mandates

– Legislated requirements for advanced safety systems, such as

advanced airbags and on-board tire pressure monitoring

– Consumer demand for greater vehicle efficiencies driven by

escalating global crude oil prices

– Consumer demand for greater safety, comfort, and convenience

features

• According to iSuppli Corp., an estimated 62.3 million people will have

Internet access in their cars by 2016

– Consumer demand for luxury features

– Growth of hybrid and electric vehicles

36

Key Drivers

Cost, Reliability, Quality and Size

• Cost is still the main key driver for automotive

– Competitive cost will get you an opportunity to win a program

• Quality is a key metric that all automotive suppliers are measured on by

using Assembly Plant Returns (APR).

• Reliability is a given in the automotive sector

– Failure to deliver will result in no future business

• Size is a big benefit - some vehicles have 100 electronic controllers and space is limited

Chapter Highlights

• Business Issues

– More efficient

• Increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy to 35.5 mpg by 2016

• Downsizing of engines and increased use of Gas Direct injection

• Increased use of turbo-charging

• Researchers project 14 million electrified vehicles annually by 2020

– 1.5 million full Electric Vehicles (EV)

– 1.5 million Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)

– 11 million Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)

» Toyota sold over 800,000 Prius Hybrids globally last year

» Toyota has started a whole Prius vehicle line

» Every major auto maker has HEV’s in the U.S.

– Volume will based on operating cost, carbon benefits, range

limitations, cost of fuel and government incentives for EV sales

• Nissan sold 9,674 Leaf’s last year

• GM sold 7,671 Volt’s last year – All needing repairs to better protect the

vehicles batteries from a crash test

Chapter Highlights

• Business Issues

– More functionality

– Automotive MEMS Revenue

• $2.2 billion in 2011, up 16 percent from 2010

• $1.9 Billion in 2010

• Five-year compounded growth rate of approximately 10 percent

starting from 2010

Automotive Product Emulator • Critical (Infrastructure) Issues –

– Identify Paradigm Shifts

• The shift to electrified vehicles

• The connected vehicle

– Need to limit the distraction of the driver

• The use of reconfigurable displays

– Provide Vision of Final Assembly Process

• Varied - dependent on the type of product (sealed underhood versus unsealed passenger compartment)

– Discuss System Test

• More in depth to eliminate problems in the field

• Better testing of software as the amount of code increases

– Discuss Environmental Issues

• All new products are being designed with Lead Free solder

Automotive Product Emulator

• Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research,

Development, Implementation

– Components related to the Electrified Vehicle

• Lower cost batteries ($250/kWh)

• Improved thermal interface materials

• Improved power devices, capacitors, inductors, transformers,

battery management ICs, gate drive ICs

– Infrastructure for Electrified Vehicles

• Limits to energy storage

• Long recharging times

• Updated electrical grid

Other 2011 vs. 2013 forecast differences

• Circuit board – need for heavy copper

• Large passives with press fit terminations

• Increased use of MEMS sensors

• The use of 0201 components in the future

• Higher resolution and larger displays being used (12.3”

displays for the instrument cluster)

• Sales of SnPb solder (80%) versus Lead free solder (20%)

for 2011

• Greater thermal demands due to the electrified vehicle

43

Opportunities

– Technical Issues

• Shift to Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), and Electric Vehicles (EV)

– Invention required to reach the battery cost target of $250/kWh

» Today’s cost $1,000 -$1,200/kWh

– Key components that are in need include:

» High performance PCBs,

» power devices,

» bulk capacitors,

» inductors and transformers,

» cooling structures,

» motor drive microprocessors,

» high current connectors,

» current sensors,

» gate driver ICs,

» battery management ICs,

» busbars, and enclosures.

44

Opportunities

– Technical Issues

• Increased use of MEMS in automotive

MEMS applications for automotive have come a long way since the introduction of a micro-machined MAP sensor in 1979. An average car today consists of over 40 different sensors, ~30% of which are micro-machined.

Application areas include

Integrated sensors for pressure (MAP, Fuel, Occupant Detection, Tire, Air Bags),

acceleration, non contact temperature, airflow, fuel flow, angular rate (Electronic

Stability Control, Roll Over) sensor.

Gas/Chemical sensors for in-cabin air quality, monitoring exhaust gas

composition and oil quality.

Actuators/valves for fuel injection

Optical/Infra-Red sensors for in-car LANs, HVAC control, Occupant Sensing,

Night-Vision and in-vehicle displays.

Polymer based sensors for humidity detection

Radar based sensors for Back-up Aid, Blind Spot Detection, and Adaptive Cruise

Control

Other Areas of Opportunities

• 12.3 inch reconfigurable displays for the

instrument panel

• LED lighting used internal and external lighting

• Connected Vehicle

Energy Storage and

Conversion Systems

TWG Chapter

Review

April 25, 2012

47

Background

• Introduced this chapter in 2009 Roadmap

– Covers batteries, both primary and secondary (rechargeable),

fuel cells and other emerging technologies.

– Broken into 3 different market areas

• Consumer

• Automotive

• Grid Storage

Emergence of Electric Energy Storage Technologies

Source: Electricity Storage Association 48

3 Main Applications for Rechargeable Batteries

Source: Takeshita, IIT, 2010

Consumer electronics Transportation Utility Grid Storage

Rechargeable batteries market expected to be $36 billion by 2016

Li- ion batteries growing by ~15% annually – driven by consumer applications

Adoption of EVs would significantly increase that

Consumer Applications Dominate Li+

• Consumer electronics accounts for the bulk of Li+ usage

• Promising growth in transportation and utility grids by 2020

Source: IIT, Takeshita 2007, 2010

Rapid Growth in Usage of Li+ Rechargeables

21.2%

6.1%

6.6%

7.4%

-2.3%

-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Nickel

Industrial

Lithium

Consumer

Lithium

Motive Lead

Acid

Stationary

Lead Acid

Ba

ttery

ch

em

istr

ies

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2007

Annual growth rate

18650 is Workhorse for Consumer Applications

Industry Drivers

• Safety – too many recalls in the last decade

• Capacity – break the 3 A.h. ceiling using new electrode materials

• Cycle time – presently 1.5 years ->3 years

• Cost – < $3.00 per 18650 and dropping at >10% p.a.

18650

Consumer Gaps

• 1. Lack of technical maturity for high energy density

capable electrodes, including silicon based anodes.

• 2. Degradation of lithium ion batteries (low cycle life) is still

an issue.

• 3. Failure rates are still higher than desired.

• 4. Rechargeable battery recycling infrastructure is

immature.

• 5. Sophisticated battery management systems are still

emerging

53

Transportation: many challenges to overcome

• EV/HEV market is currently limited to environmentally conscious buyers or when subsidized by governments

• System integration and safety are complex tasks in transportation

Comparison of present-day Li+ batteries vs. EV goals

Transportation • Current Situation

– Li ion technology works, but is expensive, and does not have needed All Electric Range (AER) at a reasonable cost to meet “range anxiety” concerns

• Nissan Leaf has a 24KWh battery pack and costs $32,800+ and $25,300 with tax credit, with 100 mile range.

• Tesla (with 42KWh capacity) provides range but is too expensive to be a mass market vehicle.

• However, China may buck the trend … BYD claims to have a 186 mile range Li ion battery EV, being put in use for fleet service.

– Charging infrastructure not yet developed, but process has begun (Better Place, Aerovironment).

– Grid readiness to accept large scale adoption with anytime charging of EVs and PHEVs not yet developed.

– All Electric Applications in high volume are emerging … e.g. E bikes in China. There are >100 million E-bikes on the road with lead acid batteries that are fully recyclable.

• Drivers for Growth

– Large scale adoption of EVs and PHEVs will be heavily dependent on cost reduction and range improvement of the battery packs, as well as the price of oil. If oil prices increase on a sustained basis, it will create a significantly larger demand for EVs and PHEVs.

– National security issues (dependence on foreign oil) may also drive faster development of an EV infrastructure.

Renewables & Peak Shifting Require Grid Storage

Source: Regenesys Ltd.

Applications of Grid Storage

• Peak shifting / load leveling

• Grid stabilization

• Renewable integration

• Enabling smart grid

Challenges

• Cost & complexity of system

integration

• Industry moves at glacial pace

• Power conversion for control of

energy

Other Applications

Military & Aerospace

• Use Standard Material Systems for Custom Applications

• Information Restricted by ITAR

• Key Players: Eagle-Picher, International Battery

Medical

• Mostly for Implantable CRM and Neurostimulation

• Customized; Manual Assembly

• Top Suppliers: Greatbach and Medtronic

Challenges and Opportunities

• Increased energy density of batteries that:

– Reduces volume for portable applications

– Increases capacity for automotive/utility applications

– Improves cost/performance

• Improved Lithium Polymer solutions (with polymer electrolyte):

– Improved safety

– Better heat dissipation

• Modeling to better understand battery performance degradation

over time:

– Standardized test methods

– Analytical tools

– Electrochemical measurements

58

Opportunities for IC and

Battery Management System Design

• Advanced battery management systems are needed for

scalable battery systems.

• Drivers and controllers for advanced battery management

systems that:

– Accurately monitor “State of Charge”.

– Manage power draw-down to avoid full depletion and extend

life.

– Are linked to the functioning of the battery pack at the cell

level to maximize efficiency.

Solid State Illumination

Background

61

• New chapter in 2009 to identify the most critical

technologies for commercial launch and market diffusion

of SSI products

• 2009-2011 saw great activity in the industry

– Many well funded research programs : USDOE and FP7

– Philips wins L-Prize for 60 watt replacement bulb

– New modular light engines on the market

– SSI performance continued to improve

– Development of standards

• 2013 Roadmap underway

– GaN on GaN and GaN on Si substrates emerging

– Chip on Board assembly (COB) emerging

62

LED Devices Continue to Improve

63

Haitz’s Law Drives Cost Performance

Analogous to Moore’s Law for LED’s

Costs decline while performance increases

64

LED Based Devices

• LED Devices continue to improve

– Remote phosphor technology developing

– Novel thermal management designs emerging

65

LED Based Devices

• New designs for light engine installation

• Edge-lit devices emerging

66

OLED Based Devices

Universal Display announces

technology and materials

license agreement with

Panasonic Idemitsu

Osram announces launch of their

OLED lighting production facility

Universal Display reports

technical performance of white

OLED that exceeds DoE

lifetime targets

Novaled develops long-life

power-efficient white PIN

OLEDs

Panasonic starts shipping

OLED lighting panels and

modules

Verbatim launches world’s first

commercially available color

tuneable OLED lighting panels

67

Comparison of LED and OLED

Light Source Light Engine Luminaire

68

LED and OLED Assembly Hierarchy

Level LED Comments OLED Comments

3 System level

assembly

Assembly of luminaire. Product is sold to customers.

System level assembly

Assembly of luminaire. Product is sold to customers.

2 Package on

board

SMT assembly processes: solder, wire bond, etc.

Assembly accomplished via mechanical leads, conductive adhesives, low temperature solder, wire bonding.

1 LED in

package

SMT assembly processes: solder, wire bond, etc.

OLED Device

Processing accomplished via integration of sheet fed/roll-to-roll processes and lamination

0 LED Device

Focuses on the fabrication of the LED wafer and dicing

Focuses on the deposition of organic light emitting materials

Summary of Critical Gaps and Needs

• A development need for LED and OLED materials to produce high-

efficiency light sources.

• Development of manufacturing processes that address the tooling, assembly equipment and assembly processes is required for producing

large volumes of low cost LED and OLED assemblies and luminaires.

• Development of thermal management technologies to dissipate heat

associated with high brightness light sources. Excess heat can lead to color shifts and lower lifetime performance.

• A need for the development of accelerated life tests appropriate for long

life-time designs. The ALT results need to be validated with real time

performance data

• Development of standards to insure that public policy conforms to

technical capability.

• The development of tests and standards to validate luminaire performance claims vs. actual luminaire performance needs to be

maintained as the volume and type of product continues to increase

rapidly.

69

70

Assembly • Design tools required for new assembly processes & for

directing product LCA optimized choices

• Package designs must address high thermal loads for

ultra-bright LEDs

• SMT assembly not readily amenable with OLED structures

Inspection &

Measurement

• Requires new technologies and tools with required

accuracy and must be cost effective

Materials • More efficient inorganic materials

• Functional inks to enable low cost OLEDs

• Improved phosphor materials

• Improved light extraction

Standards • WEEE, RHoS, Energy Star, EuP*, etc., must be watched for

impact on industry direction and technical direction and

alignment must be coordinated (iNEMI existing Focus and

Strength)

Supply Chain • Need alignment of supply chains for cost reduction to

drive consumer acceptance and ramp

• Supply chains for distribution from non-traditional

luminaire suppliers

Future Challenges for the SSI Industry

Potential Opportunities Identified:

• Drive Long Term Reliability for Power Supplies and Control

Electronics

– Data bases; specifications, testing methodologies, and standards,

LCA for components

• Creation of cost effective high volume test capabilities and

specifications for final test on integrated SSL products

– Electrical, optical, thermal

• Supply chain readiness and radical HVM cost improvements

– PS, Driver Electronics, interconnects, cables, connectors

• Methodology and structure to drive learning and specs to

minimize warpage on substrates and thus drive down defect

density –

– LED (Al2O3, SiC), OLED (polymer films)

71

Summary

• Medical

• Automotive

• Energy

• Lighting

• Common Themes:

– Potential large volumes, Reliability, Security

– Medical and Automotive in transition

– Energy and Lighting are growing

• FOM and LEP are unclear

– New communities developing - IP still an issue

72

Summary

• Miniaturization through integration

– More functionality in smaller volume

• Sensors

– MEMS

– Wireless connectivity

• Energy Efficiency

• Better Battery technologies

• Battery Management Systems

• Lighting control systems

73

www.inemi.org Email contacts:

Bill Bader

bill.bader@inemi.org

Bob Pfahl

bob.pfahl@inemi.org

Grace O’Malley - Europe

gomalley@inemi.org

Haley Fu - Asia

haley.fu@inemi.org