SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH COUNCIL

VOLUME 31132· NUMBER 411 • MARCH 1978 605 THIRD AVENUE· NEW YORK, N.Y. lO016

Adulthood and Aging in Cross-Cultural Perspective

ATTEMPTS TO GENERALIZE about human develop­ment beyond childhood pose a fundamental problem for cross-cultural research: how to encompass the enormous cultural variability of adult life without ob­vious universal anchor points such as those provided by physical growth and maturation in the compara­tive study of the child. The Council's Committee on Work and Personality in the Middle Yearsl has encountered this problem repeatedly in its explora­tions of the theories and data that the social sciences can bring to bear on contemporary issues surround­ing retirement, midlife changes, and the integration of work and family roles. Policy and theory in these areas are often based on profoundly culture-bound conceptions of what is natural, necessary, normal, or optimal for adult men and women. Systematic infor­mation from other cultures can alter these concep­tions and provide an empirically based view of human adulthood in all its variations. But adulthood and aging have been neglected areas of cross-cultural re­search, and theories of ·psychosocial development during the adult years have consequently been for­mulated without adequate evidence from the bulk of human societies.

* The author is Roy E. Larsen professor of education and human development and chairman of the Laboratory of Human Development, Harvard University. He is a member of the Committee on Work and Personality in the Middle Years.

I In addition to Mr. LeVine, the members of the Committee on Work and Personality in the Middle Years are Orville G. Brim, Jr., Foundation for Child Development (chairman); Paul B. Baltes, Pennsylvania State University; Janet Z. Giele, Brandeis University; David A. Hamburg, Insti­tute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences; Robert L. Kahn, Univer­sity of Michigan; Jack Ladinsky, University of Wisconsin; Gardner Lindzey, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (Stan­ford, California); and Matilda White Riley, Bowdoin College; staff, Ronald P. Abeles. See Orville G. Brim, Jr. and Ronald P. Abeles, "Work and Personality in the Middle Years." [ums, 1975, 29(3), pages 29-33.

by Robert A. LeV ine*

In confronting this problem, the committee recog­nized the need to develop transcultural categories for the description of continuities and discontinuities in adulthood, e.g., "career paths,"z "the convoy of social support,"3 and "the theory of oneself."4 These terms are potentially applicable in any cultural context for the description of temporal continuities in the indi­vidual's goal-oriented activities, social relationships, and conscious experience, respectively. They illus­trate the possibility of representing adulthood by areas of universal salience that permit a wide range of

lOrville G. Brim, Jr. "Career Paths and Personality Consequences: A Memorandum for Discussion," unpublished paper. Presented at the Con­ference on Occupational Careers Analysis sponsored by the Committee on Work and Personality in the Middle Years, March 1976.

3 Robert L. Kahn, "The Convoy of Social Support." Unpublished meinorandum prepared for the Committee on Work and Personality in the Middle Years, June 2, 1975.

• Orville G. Brim, Jr., "Lifespan Development of the Theory of One­self: Implications for Child Development," in H. W. Reese and L. P. Lipsitt, editors, Advances in Child Development and Behavior. New York: Academic Press, 1976, pages 241-251.

CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE

Adulthood and Aging in Cross-cultural Perspective­Robert A . LeVine

5 Industrialization and Authoritarianism in Latin America-David Collier

13 Project Link in 1977-Lawrence R. Klein

15 Current Activities at the Council -Life-course perspectives on middle and old age -Center-local relations in France, Italy, and Japan -The development of social cognition in children -Social and occupational mobility in Japan and the

United States -Summer training institutes -Staff appointment

18 New Publications 20 Senior Fulbright-Hays Awards Open for 1978-79

variation-both cultural and individual. The commit­tee also recognized the need for anthropological con­cepts, methods, and data in the effort to solve this problem. Consequently, cultural phenomenology was selected as an anthropological approach suited to filling crucial gaps in our knowledge of human adulthood.

Cultural phenomenology

"Cultural phenomenology" refers to the develop­ment, by ethnographic techniques, of a frame of ref­erence for viewing the individual in terms of the psychological perspective which his culture consti!.. tutes for him.5 It refers to indigenous conceptions that are both collectively shared and salient in the conscious experience of the individual. Research at this level-focused on the collective aspects of con­scious experience-is intermediate between the depth psychologies, on which theories of psychosocial de­velopment in adulthood have largely been based, and those empirical studies that limit themselves to the overt behavior of the individual and the socioeco­nomic conditions of his life. In this intermediate realm, pressures from the socioeconomic environ­ment and from unconscious dispositions find expres­sion and are integrated in collective representations of self, which are accessible to straightforward ethnographic investigation. Ethnographic study of cultural representations of the self over the life course would give us descriptive accounts of maturity and aging from the perspectives of diverse cultures and provide an initial view of the range of variation in human adulthood.

This approach is consistent with the life-course per­spective developed by contemporary sociologists. Glen H. Elder, Jr. refers to the life course as consist­ing of "pathways through the age-differentiated life span and subjective representations of it."6 These pathways embody both continuities and discon­tinuities for the individual, and their subjective repre­sentation can be collective or individual. The collec­tive representation of the life course in cultural beliefs and values is a set of ideals that may not be realized but serve as standards against which individuals eval­uate themselves. The individual's subjective represen­tation of his life course includes his version of the

• A. Irving Hallowell, Culture and Experience. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1955, page 79.

• Glen H. Elder, Jr. "Family History and the Life Course," Journal of Family History, 2(4), Winter 1977, pages 279-304. An expanded version will appear in T. Hareven, editor, Family Transitions awl the Life Course. :-.lew York: Academic Press, in press.

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collective standards and the conclusions he has drawn from retrospection,7 contemporaneous monitoring, and anticipation of the future concerning his place vis a vis these standards.

One set of concepts for describing the life course is the "career," which is a "patterned sequence of movements through social networks and settings,"8 and the "subjective career," which is the "moving per­spective in which the person sees his life as a whole and interprets the meaning of his various attributes, actions and the things which happen to him."9 The subjective career can be dealt with in both collective and individual representations. Thus, the life course and its component career pathways, as represented in collective and individual forms, comprise the basic. conceptual framework for a cultural phenomenology of adulthood. In this enterprise, the focus of interest is on how people make sense of their lives-with ideas drawn from their cultural environment-what kind of order they find there, and how they are affected by conclusions they draw from their culturally guided introspection.

For this conceptual framework to be used cross­culturally, the following assumptions must be made:

(1) All normal persons in all societies view them­selves as continuous entities (physical, psychological, social) from their earliest memories to the present, despite physical growth, psychological development, social and residential mobility, changes of name, and ideological conversions.

(2) All normal persons everywhere engage in intro­spective monitoring and evaluation that is contem­poraneous, retrospective, and prospective, i.e., they think about themselves in a chronological context and place themselves in relation to culturally derived standards.

(3) At least two types of such standards are univer­sal: cultural norms of age-specific performance1o and long-range goals representing cumulative perform­ance in a culturally defined career pathway.

(4) The individual represents his continuities to himself in terms of the criteria and goals of his subjec­tive careers and organizes his future behavior on the basis of these assessments. Thus, it is goals rather than roles that organize career activity, and an individual's

7 Robert B. Butler, "The Life Review: An Interpretation of Rem­iniscence in the Aged," Psychiatry, 1963, 26, pages 65--76.

MElder, op. cit. B Everett C. Hughes "Cycles, Turning Points and Careers," in E.C.

Hughes, ThR Sociological Eye. Chicago: Aldine, 1971. 111 Bernice L. :-.Ieugarten and Gunhild Hagestad, "Age and the Life

Course," in R. Binstock and E. Shanas, editors, Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1976.

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movement into and out of certain roles may only be comprehensible in terms of career paths toward long-range goals.

(5) The individual's self-evaluations in relation to age norms and career goals play an important part in the regulation of his self-esteem, his sense of his own worth.

Study group on the cultural phenomenology of adulthood and aging

In order to explore the utility of a cultural phenomenology, the committee, under a contract be­tween the Council and the National Institute on Ag­ing, assembled a study group of psychological an­thropologists and other social scientistsY Although the psychological anthropologists had not intended to investigate adult development or the life course as such during their field work, they had collected such material in the course of their work in diverse cul­tures. Each anthropologist was asked to write a paper on the adult life course in a particular culture, roughly related to the conceptual framework outlined above and addressed where possible to general issues concerning adulthood. The papers covered the fol­lowing cultures: Canadian Eskimos (Briggs), Kag­wahiv Indians of Brazil (Kracke), !Kung San Bushmen of Botswana (Shostak), Fulani of Upper Volta (Riesman), Tahitians of the Society Islands and Newars of Nepal (Levy), and Japanese (Wagatsuma). Some material on the Gusii of Kenya was also in­cluded in a general paper by the present author. At the meeting, members of the study group were able to draw upon ethnographic material from a broad range of non-Western peoples, including hunter­gatherers, pastoralists, horticulturalists, and those with an industrial economy. The discussions consti­tuted a preliminary exploration of a new territory. No conclusions were reached, but a number of ideas for future research were generated.

11 The study group was chaired by the present author. The psycholog­ical anthropologists who wrote papers were Jean Briggs, Memorial Uni­versity, Newfoundland; Waud Kracke, University of Illinois, Chicago Circle; Robert I. Levy, University of California, San Diego; Paul Riesman, Carleton College; Marjorie Shostak, Cambridge, Massachusetts; Hiroshi Wagatsuma, University of California, Los Angeles. In addition to the authors of papers and staff, the meeting was attended by John P. Demos, Brandeis University; Cora DuBois, Harvard University; Horacio Fabrega, Jr., University of Pittsburgh; Janet Z. Giele, Brandeis University; George W. Goethals, Harvard University; David Gutmann, Northwestern Univer­sity; Tamara Hareven, Clark University; Bernice L. Neugarten, Univer­sity of Chicago; John Peterson, Massachusetts Department of Elder Af­fairs; Matilda White Riley, Bowdoin College; Victoria Steinitz, Harvard University; and Beatrice B. Whiting, Harvard University. Prema Mathai and Martha Li-Chiu, graduate students at Harvard, acted as rapporteurs.

MARCH 1978

Cultural conceptions of the life course

Despite wide variations in analytic procedures, as well as in the cultures described, the papers gave encouragement to the hope that the life-course per­spective would focus ethnographic coverage and pro­vide a framework for comparison. When cultural data on sex and marriage, parenthood, old age, and death are organized sequentially for the individual life, the pan-human constraints they represent are more evi­dent than when the same data are organized for the comparison of kinship structures. Thus, the building of relational patterns in early adulthood and the con­frontation with their loss in old age emerge as univer­sal experiences, whatever the form and content of the patterns themselves.

In virtually all of the groups, ethnographic descrip­tions of the life course needed to be differentiated by sex. The cultural vocabulary and normative structure of age-related behavior is so different for men and women, because of their reproductive and work roles and their marital residence patterns, that no single description of the ideal or typical life course would suffice. It seems clear that even in the simplest societies, men and women measure their lives against radically different ,standards.

Age, although always recognized culturally as a divi­sion among contemporaries as well as a marker of successive phases in one person's life, can be reckoned roughly or precisely, discretely or continuously, with or without specific labels. Fulani, for example, keep track of their chronological ages, while among the !Kung San and many other nonliterate peoples, accu­rate chronological reckoning is virtually unknown. In our own history, asJohn Demos (Brandeis University) pointed out, the concept of an "adult" and its defini­tion in chronological age is a recent one. There is also cultural variability in the calculation of cumulative performance along the life course. The degree to which such calculations are made in personal experi­ence appears to reflect the extent of institutional sup­port for socially visible career pathways. Among the agricultural Gusii, for example, each person's history of fertility is so carefully monitored and evaluated that a concept of "reproductive career" is appropri­ate. The !Kung San hunter-gatherers, however, are not as concerned with reviewing their fertility his­tories cumulatively, except in cases of childlessness, and they do not give them a prominent place in self­evaluation. Perhaps this represents a general contrast between agricultural and hunting-and-gathering peoples, reflecting their differences in resource ac­cumulation. Such an hypothesis could be tested

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cross-culturally, although it is difficult to ascertain the absence of long-range goals and concepts of cumula­tive careers unless the ethnographer has intentionally sought and failed to find them.

The possibility that cultures have drastically differ­ing modes of thinking about their lives was suggested by Robert I. Levy (University of California, San Di­ego) on the basis of his work in a small, relatively undifferentiated Tahitian community and in a com­plex urban center in Nepal. He found that Nepalese conceptualize their lives in sophisticated, relativistic terms, emphasizing individual identity and the possibilities for personal change in later life. Tahi­tians, by contrast, have no sense of an alternative to their single pattern of growing up embedded in local community life, while experiencing themselves as completed autonomous beings early in life. This con­trast suggests not only variations in the culturally con­stituted experience of aging, but great variability in the cognitive basis for introspection. Future attempts to study the life course must take this dimension of variability into account.

Finally, the fear of isolation and infirmity in old age emerged as a recurrent problem across the range of societies, although its impact on individuals in their middle and later years varies with cultural norms and values concerning marriage, sexuality, and emotional dependence. Where physical attractiveness is empha­sized, as among the Fulani, its decline in old age can become a stigma that aging persons dread. Where customs permit successive re-coupling in conjugal or sexual unions, persons in their middle years look for­ward to new spouses or lovers-a particularly impor­tant comfort when a spouse dies. The Inuit (Eskimos) as described by Jean Briggs (Memorial University, Newfoundland) are so intensively socialized in child­hood for emotional interdependence that their fear of loneliness becomes a primary determinant of their experience and social behavior during the later years of life. Hiroshi Wagatsuma (University of California, Los Angeles) pointed out that in Japan, where a majority of persons over 60 years of age reside with their kin, those who live away from their kin show an exceptionally high rate of suicide. Ethnographic in­vestigation can be expected to reveal many other ways in which cultural norms and values affect experience in later life.

Universal frameworks for cross-cultural comparison

The study group produced several proposals for comparative frameworks to guide data collection, all

4

aimed at relating cultural concepts of the life course to objective markers. Marjorie Shostak (Cambridge, Massachusetts), for example, showed how revealing a demographic comparison of American and !Kung San women (concerning life expectancies and repro­ductive events) could be and then examined her !Kung San data in terms of a convergence between biological, sociocultural, and psychological timetables as discussed by Neugarten and HagestadP The biodemographic facts of life provide a background against which the culture's normative life plan and the individual's experience can be understood.

Horacio Fabrega, Jr. (University of Pittsburgh) proposed to formalize this for the collection of indi­vidual data in the form of an "aging graph" parallel to the "illness graph" he has developed13 in which biodemographic markers related to age are plotted along the horizontal axis and their normative and affective values for the individual are plotted along the vertical axis. With the graph as an instrument for interviewing, a survey could be conducted that would permit statistical descriptions of normative and affec­tive attitudes toward concrete manifestations of ag­ing. Another suggested approach, for comparing societies rather than individuals, is to put age-related role transitions along the horizontal axis (prepara­tion, entry, markers or graded levels, exit, postexit) and institutional or activity arenas on a vertical axis (reproductive, kinship, economic, political, ritual, recreational roles). These exercises served to empha­size the potential value and feasibility of conducting comparative research in this area, rather than con­tenting ourselves with improved description.

Transitions and crises as diagnostic moments

From the point of view of depth psychology, a cultural phenomenology of adulthood and aging is preparatory to the task of understanding the uncon­scious meanings in terms of which individuals experi­ence the events of their middle and later years. Waud Kracke (University of Illinois, Chicago Circle), in his paper on the Kagwahiv, advocated and illustrated such an approach, one designed to "identify typical crises, emotional issues and kinds of ego involvement that are met with in adulthood and explore how indi­viduals experience and face each one." His paper is

12 Op. cit. 13 Horacio Fabrega, Jr. and Martine Zucker, "Gomparison of Illness

Episodes in a Pluralistic Setting," Psychosomatic Medicine, 1977,39, pages 325-343.

VOLUME 31/32, NUMBER 4/1

focused on death and mourning, events that are sig­nificant from cultural as well as psychological view­points.

In populations with high mortality rates, as in much of the Third World, individuals are more likely to experience in their own lifetime the death of chil­dren, spouses, and parents. In fact, many individuals lose more than one child and several spouses. The evidence indicates that bereavement and the sense of loss are not lessened by being frequent and expecta­ble. The death of an intimate is profoundly disturb­ing and disruptive and requires short-term help and long-term readjustment. The social and psychological resources mobilized in the service of these processes are instructive; they reveal much about the meaning and function of the relationships that have been de­stroyed and the means available for reconstruction. The study of each type of loss offers an opportunity for understanding a specific type of relationship: in the case of child loss, a relationship extending into the future; in the case of parent loss, one representing the past and one's early experience; and in spouse loss, a contemporaneous relationship defined by complementarity, sexual intimacy, and coparent­hood. The comparative analysis of these losses alone would tell us a great deal about the experience of adulthood from both clinical and ethnographic per­spectives.

Besides discussing theoretical issues, the confer­ence also considered the methodology of clinical ap­proaches to studying adults in anthropological field work. Kracke uses repeated free-associative inter-

views, adapted from psychoanalytic models. David Gutmann (Northwestern University) uses projective tests and a more challenging approach that invites his respondents to voice resentments they bring to the interview situation but would not otherwise disclose. The "life history interview" has obvious value in the study of the life course and might be revived as a field method for research on adulthood and aging. Life history material can be analyzed from many perspec­tives, e.g., as representing cultural ideals and demo­graphic realities as well as personal dispositions and adaptations.

The work of the study group showed that (1) there exists in the archives of psychological anthropologists valuable information on the experience of adulthood and aging in diverse cultures; (2) a standard ethno­graphic approach, cultural phenomenology, can clarify connections between demographic patterns, social roles, and individual experience in the life course of a single culture; (3) it is possible to devise transcultural categories applicable to the life course in hunting-gathering, agricultural, and industrial societies; and (4) the collection of comparable data on the lives of men and women in diverse cultures would contribute to conceptions of human plasticitiy in the middle and later years and to the identification of cultural and intraspychic factors in the experience of growing old. The next step is for anthropologists to educate themselves in the problems of aging as de­fined in other disciplines so that the data they collect will be of maximum theoretical and social significance. 0

Industrialization and Authoritarianism in Latin America

DURING THE PAST THREE YEARS the Joint Committee on Latin American Studies has supported a working group on the state and public policy whose goal is to advance understanding of the new era of political authoritarianism that has recently emerged in several of the most industrially advanced nations of Latin America. The working group is coordinated by a

* David Collier is associate professor of political science at Indiana University. He wishes to thank Albert O. Hirschman, Ruth Berins Collier, David L. Sills, and Louis Wolf Goodman for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article. The current membership of the Joint Commit­tee on Latin American Studies is Carlos Diaz-Alejandro, Yale University (chairman); Eugenio Chang-Rodriguez, Queens College, City University

MARCH 1978

by David Collier*

North American political scientist, David Collier of Indiana University, and a Peruvian sociologist, Julio Cotler of the Institute of Peruvian Studies. This in­ternational, multidisciplinary group has explored the implications of the new authoritarianism for the con­struction of theory about the relationship between industrial modernization and political change.

of New York; Shepard Forman, University of Michigan; Alejandro Fox­ley, Center for the Study of National Planning (Santiago); Friedrich Katz, University of Chicago; Larissa Lomnitz, National University of Mexico; Juarez Rubens Brandiio Lopes, Brazilian Center for Analysis and Plan­ning (Siio Paulo); Alfred C. Stepan, Yale University; siaff, Louis Wolf Goodman.

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The background

In 1964, Brazil had a military coup. Two years later, the military leadership also seized power in Argentina. These coups inaugurated periods of rule by the military as an institution, during which the armed forces sought to promote accelerated indus­trial growth based on massive new foreign invest­ment. They also eliminated or drastically controlled elections of all kinds; introduced important new re­strictions in labor unions; and imposed economic au­sterity programs which included wage controls that reduced the real income of the urban "popular sector"-i.e., the working class and the lower middle class. These austerity programs were widely inter­preted as an important part of the effort to create an investment climate presumed attractive to potential foreign investors. Since austerity programs had often been vigorously opposed by the popular sector, in part through such channels as labor organizations and elections, the controls over these forms of politi­cal expression appeared to be essential to the effort to sustain the new economic policies and to achieve eco­nomic growth.

The resurgence of military rule in these two major, industrially advanced countries, which contain roughly 65 per cent of the population of South America and produce roughly 75 per cent of the region's industrial output,l occurred in the context of the erosion of earlier expectations of the first two decades of the post-World War II era that greater economic and social equality and a more democratic form of politics would emerge in Latin America. 2 It also called into question the hypothesis of moderniza­tion theory that sustained industrialization is associ­ated with the emergence of democracy and equality3

and stimulated a fundamental reassessment of this

I Calculated from data presented in james W. Wilkie, editor, Statistical Abstract of LatiliAmerica, Volume 17 (Latin American Center, University of California at Los Angeles, 1976) and Robert R. Kaufman, "Mexico and Lalin American Authoritarianism," in jose Luis Reyna and Richard Weinert, editors, Authoritarianism in Mexico (Philadelphia: Institute for the Study of Human Issues, 1977.)

2 An excellent analysis of these expectations is provided in Robert A. Packenham, Liberal America and the Third World (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1973).

3 Within the large literature dealing with different aspects of this rela­tionship, three crucial initial studies are Seymour MaTlin Lipset, "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy," American Political Science Review, 53 (March 1959), pages 69-105; james S. Coleman, "Conclusion: The Political Systems of the Developing Areas," in Gabriel A. Almond and james S. Coleman, editors, The Politics of the Developing Areas (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1960); and Phillips Cutright, "National Political Development: Measure­ment and Analysis," American Sociological Review, 27 (April 1963), pages 253-64.

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relationship within the Latin American context.4 In place of this earlier hypothesis, a new set of hypoth­eses emerged which suggested that in late developing nations more advanced levels of industrialization may coincide with the collapse of democracy and an in­crease in inequality.

The events of the 1970s in Latin America have greatly increased the plausibility of these new hy­potheses. Military-authoritarian rule has persisted in Brazil, and it reappeared in Argentina in 1976. In 1973, well-institutionalized democratic regimes col­lapsed in two other economically advanced Latin American nations-Chile and Uruguay-and were also replaced by military regimes. In Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay both the level of violence em­ployed in suppressing political parties, trade unions, and labor protest and the decline in the real income of the popular sector went far beyond that experi­enced in Brazil and Argentina in their initial au­thoritarian periods in the 1960s. In Brazil the degree of repression had also become notably more intense beginning roughly in 1969. These new developments stimulated scholars to push further the rethinking of the relationship between industrial modernization and political change that had begun a decade earlier.s

Bureaucratic-authoritarianism

In the course of this rethinking, a new term came into use. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay were ruled by the military as an institution, rather than exclusively by individual military rulers. In addition, the military adopted a technocratic, bureaucratic ap­proach to policy making (as opposed to a more "polit-

4 Four of the most important statements that reflect this reassessment and are accessible to the English-language reader are Fernando Henrique Cardoso, "Associated-dependent Development: Theoretical and Practical Implications," in Alfred Stepan, editor, Authoritarian Brazil: Origins, Policies, and Future (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1973); Octavio lanni, Crisis ill Brazil (New York : Columbia University Press, 1970); Philippe C. Schmitter, Interest Conflict a11d Political Change in Brazil (Stan­ford: Stanford University Press, 1971); and Guillermo O'Donnell, Modern­ization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics (Institute of International Studies, University of California, Berkeley, Politics of Modernization Series No. 9, 1973). The seminal study that underlies this literature is Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Enzo Faletto, Dependencia y desarrollo en America Latina (Mexico City: Siglo Veintiuno Editores, 1969). This book is to be published in English as Dependency and Development in Latin America (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1978).

S Perhaps the most important statement of the mid-1970s that attempts to draw together the experience of these four countries is Guillermo O'Donnell , "Reflexiones sobre las tendencias generales de cambio en eI Estado burocratico-autoritario" (Documento CEDES/G.E. CLACSO/No. I, Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad, Buenos Aires, 1975). This has also been published in English in the Latin American Research Review 8, 3 (1977), pages 3-38.

VOLUME 31/32, NUMBER 4/1

ical" approach through which policies are shaped by economic and political demands from different sec­tors of society, expressed through such channels as elections, legislatures, and labor unions). This ap­proach to policy making in these regimes has led scholars to join the adjective "bureaucratic" with the term "authoritarian" and to call these systems "bureaucratic-authoritarian."6 This label has come to be an important addition to broad typologies of na­tional political regimes. 7

In order to place the distinctive characteristics of bureaucratic-authoritarianism in comparative per­spective, it is convenient to focus on three features of this type of regime that correspond to three underly­ing dimensions for comparing authoritarian regimes derived from the writings of Juan J. Linz.8 Bureaucratic-authoritarianism is characterized by (1) the prevalence of a technocratic mentality, as op­posed to any more elaborated form of ideology; (2) a related willingness to work within the framework of an apathetic acceptance of the regime by the mass of the population and a corresponding lack of interest on the part of the ruling elite in mobilizing mass support; and (3) the use of repression to achieve a "limitation of pluralism" and thereby control opposi­tion to the regime.

In terms of these dimensions, there are important contrasts between bureaucratic-authoritarianism and other types of authoritarianism that have appeared in Latin America. In the cases of "traditional" au­thoritarianism, as in contemporary Paraguay, one finds a type of autocratic rule in which a single leader, rather than a larger bureaucratic structure, plays a central role. In cases of "populist" authoritarianism, as in contemporary Panama under Torrijos and in the widely-studied period of "Peronism" in Argentina from 1946 to 1955, there is an active effort to mobilize popular support as a source of legitimacy for the government.9 There is considerable variation in the degree of political pluralism permitted under populist authoritarianism, but the use of systematic

• Important examples of the initial use of this term are found in Car­doso, "Associated-dependent Development" and O'Donnell, Motkrniza­tion and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism, both published in 1973.

7 A major recent study that discusses the concept of bureaucratic­authoritarianism within the framework of a broad typological analysis of political regimes is juan J. Linz, "Totalitarian and Authoritarian Re­gimes," in Fred Greenstein and Nelson Polsby, editors, Handbook of Politi­cal Science, Volume 3 (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1975).

8 These dimensions are discussed in great detail in juan j. Linz, "An Authoritarian Regime: Spain," in Erik Allardt and Yrjo Littunen, editors, Cleavages, Ideologies, and Party Systems (Helsinki: Academic Bookstore, 1964), as well as in his "Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes."

• These types are discussed in O'Donnell, Modernization and Bureau­cratic-Authoritarianism, chapter 2.

MARCH 1978

repression is generally far more limited than it is under bureaucratic-authoritarianism. Contemporary Cuba is an im portant contrasting case in terms of a series of dimensions, including the crucial role of political mobilization and charismatic leadership, the greater role of ideology, and a far greater reliance on international migration as a means of "limiting pluralism." The economic model being followed in Cuba is of course also totally different from that in all these other Latin American countries.

Similarities and contrasts with selected European cases may also be noted. Examples of bureaucratic­authoritarianism in Europe include the political sys­tems that emerged in several Eastern European coun­tries between the two world wars and during the Franco period in Spain. Bureaucratic-author­itarianism is, however, quite different from German and Italian fascism, which were characterized by a highly elaborated nationalistic ideology and by high levels of popular mobilization.!O

Reformulation of modernization theory

In addition to the elaboration of typologies of au­thoritarian regimes, research on Latin American au­thoritarianism has added to the critique of modern­ization theory. A number of the most important lines of argument advanced by scholars concerned with modernization theory, such as the hypothesized rela­tionship between democracy and industrial modern­ization, have long been seriously questioned.!! Yet, scholarly debate continues regarding how one can reasonably go about developing useful and appropri­ate hypotheses concerning the interaction among the political, economic, and social spheres that occurs in the course of industrial modernization. There is also a debate over the specific hypotheses that adequately characterize this interaction.

Research on Latin America has contributed to both parts of this debate. With regard to the first issue, it has criticized the presumed universality of earlier as-

10 O'Donnell, Motkrnization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism, pages 92-93 and "Reflexiones," pages 50-51.

II Important examples of the critique of modernization theory include Reinhard Bendix, "Tradition and Modernity Reconsidered," Comparative Studies in Society and Histury, 9 (April 1967), pages 292-346; joseph R. Gusfield, "Tradition and Modernity: Misplaced Polarities in the Study of Social Change," American Journal of Sociology, 72 Oanuary 1967), pages 351-62; C.S. Whitaker, "A Dysrhytmic Process of Political Change," World Politics, 19 Oanuary 1967), pages 190-217; Lloyd I. Rudolph and Susan Hoeber Rudolph, The Modernity of Tradition: Political Development in India (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1967); Packenham, Liberal America and the Third World; and Dean C. Tipps, "Modernization Theory and the Comparative Study of Societies: A Critical P.::rspective," Comparative Studies in Society and Histury, 15 (March 1973), pages 199-226.

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sumptions about political change and has pointed to the need to develop distinctive hypotheses for the analysis of different historical and cultural contexts. 12

Such critiques do not reflect an antitheoretical bias, but rather a concern with specifying the char­acteristics of the particular context one is analyzing in terms of theoretically relevant variables. I3 For re­searchers concerned with contemporary Latin America, one of the most salient characteristics is the relatively late industrialization of this region as com­pared with most of the North Atlantic countries. This, it is argued, has led to a series of distinctive economic, social, and political problems. I4 A related characteris­tic is the economic dependence of the Latin American region involving a heavy reliance on foreign capital, technology, and managerial expertise in order to promote industrialization. A third characteristic is that this external dependence has largely involved dependence on nations and firms operating in the international capitalist economic system. IS

Research on Latin America has also made a theoret­ical contribution by developing new hypotheses about political changes within this particular setting. These suggest why the interactions among the patterns of economic, social, and political change that have oc­curred in this context of late, dependent capitalist development have not consistently led to democracy, but rather appear at least in some cases to be linked to the emergence of bureaucratic-authoritarianism. For the sake of convenience, this set of hypotheses may be referred to as "the bureaucratic-authoritarian mod el." I 6

12 These issues are addressed in O'Donnell, Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism, chapter I; Philippe C. Schmitter, "Paths to Political Development in Latin America," in Douglas A. Chalmers, editor, Changing Latin America: New Interpretatiuns of Its Politics and Society (New York: Academy of Political Science, Columbia University, 1972); and Glaucio Dillon Soares, "The New Industrialization and the Brazilian Polit­ical System," in James Petras and Maurice Zeitlin, editors, Latin America: Reform or Revolutiun? (New York: Fawcett World Library, 1968).

13 This approach corresponds to that recommended in Adam Pre­zeworski and Henry Teune, The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry (New York: John Wiley and Company, 1970).

14 See Albert O. Hirschman, "The Political Economy of Import­substituting Industrialization in Latin America," Quarterly Journal of Eco­nomics 82, I (February 1968), pages 2-32.

I. A major, initial statement that emphasizes the aspects of dependency analysis that are relevant here is Cardoso and Faletto, Dependencia y desar­rollo. For a recent warning by Cardoso regarding the misuse of depen­dency theory, see his "The Consumption of Dependency Theory in the United States," Latin American Research Review 12,3 (1977), pages 7-24. Another valuable recent discussion of this perspective is Richard R. Fa­gen, "Studying Latin American Politics: Some Implications of a Dependen­cia Approach," Latin American Research Review, 12,2 (1977), pages 3-27.

16 Though the development of this model involved the work of many scholars (such as those cited in footnotes 4 and 14), the studies carried out by members of the working group for the volume described below focus particularly on the form these arguments took in the writings of Guil-

8

These hypotheses focus particularly on two phases of industrialization that involve the growth of differ­ent sectors of industrial production. The first phase is the initial, often relatively rapid expansion of the production of nondurable consumer goods to supply a domestic market previously supplied by goods im­ported from advanced industrial countries. This "easy" phase of "import substitution" initially ap­peared to produce impressive economic growth. However, the end of this phase is seen as leading to problems of economic stagnation, severe inflation, balance of payments deficits, and foreign indebted­ness. In order to overcome these problems and sus­tain economic growth, it is argued that policy makers attempted to initiate a second, considerably more dif­ficult phase based on the "deepening" of industrial production to include the intermediate and capital goods used in industry itself. 17 To expand these sec­tors, Latin American governments have relied heavily upon foreign capital, technology, and managerial ex­pertise. To attract external assistance, they have at­tempted to create a favorable investment climate which has created pressure both to control the wages of the popular sector and to control the political par­ties and unions that represent that sector's political and economic interests.

The expansion of industry initiated in the earlier import-substitution phase was accompanied by changes in social structure at both the mass and the elite level. These changes include (1) the substantial growth of the urban popular sector, which greatly increases its capacity for economic and political de­mand making and hence its capacity effectively to pro­test these new controls, and (2) the growing numbers and political importance of technocrats who favor technical solutions to economic and social problems. The technocrats have little tolerance for the economic and political demands of the popular sector because they believe that this type of demand making should not playa role in shaping public policies. It is argued that the interaction between these changes in social structure and the problems of industrilization dis­cussed above produce severe economic and political tensions and may ultimately lead to polarized class

lermo O'Donnell, especially in Modernization and Bureaucratic­Authoritarianism and in "Reflexiones." The present discussion therefore focuses particularly on O'Donnell's analysis. This brief summary simply identifies a few of the most important variables analyzed by O'Donnell and is not intended to be a complete summary of his argument.

17 It should be emphasized that in contrast to O'Donnell's initial focus on "deepening," studies of Brazil have generally tended to emphasize the production of consumer durables such as automobiles. However, many of the same issues arise in connection with consumer durables as with deepening.

VOLUME 31/32, NUMBER 4/1

conflict. Bureaucratic-authoritarianism is seen as the political response to this conflict on the part of a new military-technocratic alliance.

These arguments about the emergence of bureaucratic-authoritarianism quickly attracted wide scholarly attention. I8 This occurred in part because they not only provided a suggestive explanation for an important set of contemporary political events but also because they represented a respecification of the models of political change earlier offered by modern­ization theorists. In the context of the 1970s, when the central thrust of political research on the Third World had shifted from a concern with analyzing democratization and "Westernization" to a concern with the difficult issues of a national political economy faced by these societies, this respecified model was a most welcome addition to the literature.

The working group

The intellectual point of departure of the working group on the state and public policy was a growing sense of dissatisfaction with a number of elements in this bureaucratic-authoritarian model. The model unquestionably addresses important issues and adopts a valuable approach to explaining political change in the context of late, dependent capitalist development. Yet even in the first phase of the evolu­tion of this literature, in which analyses were focused on Brazil and Argentina, scholars began to raise ques­tions regarding the degree to which bureaucratic­authoritarianism, which was clearly a new phenom­enon in relation to the political patterns of the 1950s and early 1960s, in fact represented a "restoration" of a type of authoritarianism that had existed in the 1930s and 1940s. They also questioned the economic arguments employed in explaining its emergence. I9

Beginning in the mid-1970s-in the context of the attempt to understand bureaucratic-author­itarianism in Chile and Uruguay, as well as in Brazil and Argentina-scholarly dissatisfaction with this model became even more widespread. 20 The

18 One could easily compile a long bibliography of studies that have sought to criticize, elaborate, or refine O'Donnell's presentation of this line of analysis.

19 Philippe C. Schmitter, "The 'Portugalization ' of Brazil?"; Albert Fishlow, "Some Reflections on Post-1964 Brazilian Economic Policy"; and Samuel A. Morely and Gordon w. Smith, "The Effect of Changes in the Distribution of Income on Labor, Foreign Investment, and Growth in Brazil," all in Stepan, editor, AuJlwritarian Brazil. See also Mario S. Broder­son, "Sobre 'Modernizacion y Autoritarismo' y eI estancamiento in­flacionario argentino," Desarrollo Economico, 13, 51 (October to December 1973), pages 591-605.

20 This and the following paragraph summarize the issues raised in the initial discussions among members of the working group.

MARCH 1978

political-economic model pursued by these au­thoritarian governments increasingly appeared to be considerably less consistent and coherent than was initially thought. These four countries were not at comparable levels of industrialization, and the initial hypotheses noted above regarding the role of prob­lems of industrialization in the emergence of bureaucratic-authoritarianism therefore came under increasingly critical scrutiny. It was also not clear that increased inequality was in fact an economic prereq­uisite for the success of the development policies adopted by these governments. There was an increas­ing sense of a need to place greater emphasis on political explanations of these economic policies and of the rise of authoritarianism. For instance, it ap­peared that the structure of the party system and the political strength of the popular sector were impor­tant determinants of the degree to which polarized class conflict emerged in each country. In certain countries, the ideological polarization that occurred prior to the appearance of bureaucratic­authoritarianism could not be explained simply as a consequence of the interplay of economic forces.

Finally, bureaucratic-authoritarianism has not ap­peared in all of the industrially more advanced coun­tries of Latin America. 21 In Mexico, a milder form of authoritarianism is based on the rule of a political party, rather than the military. Pluralist regimes per­sist in Colombia and Venezuela. The military rule experienced in Peru since 1968-both in its initial reformist phase and in its current more conservative phase-is likewise distinct from the more repressive military rule of the south. For the scholar concerned with the hypothesis that there is an inherent associa­tion between advanced industrialization and bureaucratic-authoritarianism in Latin America, the challenge was thus to extend the analysis beyond the countries where this form of authoritarianism has appeared-i.e., Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. It was essential to achieve a broader under­standing that also encompassed these other relatively advanced countries in which, at least to date, it has not appeared. This larger comparison could yield new in­sights both into the experience of other countries and

21 In terms of their overall level of industrial production, a variable stressed by authors such as O'Donnell, Latin American countries could be placed in three broad groups, with Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico at the highest level; the other five of the eight countries discussed below at an intermediate level; and the remaining countries at a considerably lower level. For a discussion of classifications of socioeconomic modernization in South A merica, see O'Donnell, Modernization and Bureaucratic­Autlwritarianism, chapter 1. Supplementary data on these groupings of countries was derived from the two sources cited in footnote I, above.

9

into the four cases of bureaucratic-authori­tarianism. 22 Although certain elements of this larger comparison had begun to appear in studies of Latin American authoritarianism,23 this comparison had not yet been employed in a systematic reassess­ment of explanations of bureaucratic­authoritarianism.

The goal of the working group has been to consoli­date and build upon these dissatisfactions and criti­cisms. It has also sought to broaden the scholarly debate on the nature and causes of bureaucratic­authoritarianism by bringing together the perspec­tives of scholars from both the Southern and North­ern hemispheres, as well as from different academic disciplines. In addition to the coordinators (a political scientist and a sociologist), the group has thus in­cluded another sociologist, Fernando Henrique Car­doso of the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Plan­ning (Sao Paulo); two economists, Albert O. Hirschman of the Institute for Advanced Study (Princeton, New Jersey) and Jose Serra of the Brazil­ian Center for Analysis and Planning; and three other political scientists, Guillermo O'Donnell of the Center for the Study of the State and Society (Buenos Aires), Robert Kaufman of Rutgers University, and James Kurth of Swarthmore College. All the mem­bers of the group had previously contributed to this area of research and felt that these problems with the bureaucratic-authoritarian model would be a useful starting place for building a more complete under­standing of Latin American authoritarianism. Mem­bers of the group met informally a number of times in 1975 and 1976 and held a formal, two-day meeting in early 1977, at which preliminary papers were presented. These papers have all been substantially revised on the basis of a wide-ranging exchange of comments and criticisms-both at this meeting and in extensive subsequent correspondence among a number of the authors.

22 The use of this broader comparison to refine arguments about the emergence of bureaucratic-authoritarianism reflects the use of the "con­stant comparative method" advocated in Barney Glaser and Anselm Strauss in The Discovery oJGrountkd Theory: StrategiesJorQualitative Research (Chicago: Aldine Publishing Company, 1967).

23 See Thomas Skidmore, "The Politics of Economic Stabilization in Post-War Latin America," in James M. Malloy, editor, Authoritarianism arid Corporatism in Latin America (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1977); Kaufman, "Mexico and Latin American Authoritarianism"; and "Corporatism, Clientelism, and Partisan Conflict: A Study of Seven Coun­tries," in Malloy, editor, Authoritarianism; David Collier, Squatters and Oligarchs: Authoritarian Rule and Policy Change in Peru (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976); Alfred Stepan, The State and Society: Peru in Comparative Perspective (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1978), chapters 3 and 4; and Juan J . Linz and Alfred Stepan, editors, The Breakdown oj Democratic Regimes (Baltimore: The Johns Hop­kins University Press, 1978).

10

Forthcoming volume

The original essays that are a product of this col­laborative effort have been brought together in a volume tentatively entitled The New Authoritarianism in Latin America, edited by David Collier, to be published in 1979. Part I of this volume will provide an overview of the issues of social science analysis raised by the recent emergence of authoritarianism in these indus­trially advanced countries of Latin America. The opening chapter by Collier reviews the basic arguments contained in the bureaucratic­authoritarian model and poses some initial critical questions about these arguments.

The chapter by Fernando Henrique Cardoso then inItiates the discussion of bureaucratic­authoritarianism by proposing a major conceptual clarification. He opposes the Wi·~ of this term as a global characterization of the political system, a usage followed in the initial formulation of the bureaucratic-authoritarian model. He stresses the need to distinguish between the core characteristics of bureaucratic-authoritarian regimes and the type of state with which they are associated-in the neo­Marxist sense of the state as the larger system of economic and political "domination," which in the Latin American context he characterizes as "depen­dent" and "capitalist." He argues that the relationshp between regime and state is more complex than is implied in the bureaucratic-authoritarian model. One cannot adequately analyze the differences, and similarities, among such important cases as contem­porary Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela-all of which he considers dependent capitalist states-unless one distinguishes carefully between regime and state. Cardoso also analyzes the political institutions of bureaucratic-authoritarianism, drawing attention to the variegated features and internal contradictions of these systems. In order to place the experience of the countries of the southern cone of South America in clearer perspective, he points to a series of contrasts, as well as similarities, with the nonmilitary au­thoritarianism of Mexico, the recent reformist mili­tary government in Peru, and the democratic regime in Venezuela.

Part II of the volume will address the problem of explaining the rise of bureaucratic-authoritarianism. In the first chapter in this section, Albert O. Hirsch­man-an economist-reminds researchers not to stress economic explanations of political phenomena to the point of neglecting political explanations. Plac­ing his discussion within the larger tradition of social thought regarding the political consequences of

VOLUME 31/32, NUMBER 4/1

ind ustrialization, Hirschman critically surveys various economic explanations of the rise of authoritarianism and finds them all inadequate. He argues that differ­ent phases of industrialization have important conse­quences for politics in part because of the expecta­tions they create in the minds of policy makers regard­ing the likelihood of sustained economic growth. It appears that the relative ease with which the initial expansion of consumer goods production occurred in Latin America generated unrealistic expectations about opportunities for growth, and hence for eco­nomic reform, which in turn played a role in the sequence of events that led to bureaucratic­authoritarianism. Hirschman then broadens his analysis of the role of ideas in shaping political change and proposes a new approach to explaining the rise of authoritarianism. He analyzes the way in which politi­cal ideas and political action interact in the evolution of the "entrepreneurial" and "reform" functions in society. This perspective, which focuses on what may be called the "political culture of capitalism,"24 is used to provide a partial explanation of the contrast be­tween the recent pluralist experience of Colombia and Venezuela and the authoritarian experience of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay.

The chapter by Jose Serra provides a critique of the hypothesis that the attempt to achieve the deepening of industrial production played a central role in the rise of bureaucratic-authoritarianism. Focusing primarily on Brazil, but also drawing on the Chilean and Mexican cases, Serra finds little support for this hypothesis. His close analysis of Brazil is of particular importance to this volume because the special con­junction in Brazil of economic and political crisis, followed by harsh authoritarianism, regressive eco­nomic policies, and successful economic growth has made Brazil in a sense the "paradigmatic case" for the bureaucratic-authoritarian model. Other countries, by contrast, are only partial approximations. In Argentina, the coherence of authoritarian rule has been limited; in Chile and Uruguay, the idea of the deepening of industrialization is largely irrelevant be­cause of the small scale of their economies; and Mexico involves a rather different pattern, based on nonmilitary authoritarianism which did not result from the "triggering" political crisis experienced in the other cases and which is based on quite a different political coalition. Hence, by calling into question the hypothesized "economic connection" for the country

•• This suggestive term was proposed by Walter Dean Burnham in correspondence with Albert O. Hirschman regarding Hirschman's chap­ter.

MARCH 1978

that presumably fits the bureaucratic-authoritarian' model most closely, Serra makes a particularly con­vincing case for the need to reformulate the model.

The chapter by Robert Kaufman provides a de­tailed review of the fit between the bureaucratic­authoritarian model and the recent experiences of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, and Mexico. After presenting an extended critique of the "deepening" hypothesis that is parallel to that of Hirschman and Serra, Kaufman broadens the model to include an analysis of the implications-for the evolution of political coalitions and political regimes-of five different development strategies that might be adopted in order to promote economic growth in these societies. These include, in addition to the deepening of industrialization, the alternative strat­egies of promoting consumer durables, industrial ex­ports, and primary product exports, and the expan­sion of the domestic market for consumer goods. Within this modified framework, Kaufman finds that the transitions among different pha~s of industri­alization have narrowed the range of policy alterna­tives open to Latin American societies in a way that contributed to the emergence of bureaucratic­authoritarianism. He thus finds an important fit be­tween the underlying argument contained in the bureaucratic-authoritarian model and the experi­ence of these five countries.

The final chapter in Part II, by Julio Cotler, argues that the scholars who developed the bureaucratic­authoritarian model have not devoted sufficient at­tention to the way in which the experience of Argen­tina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay is distinctive in rela­tion to that of many other countries in Latin America. Focusing particularly on Peru, but noting important parallels in the experience of Mexico, he argues that the presence of large indigenous populations greatly increased the complexity of issues of state building and national integration that arose to some degree in all of these countries earlier in this century. He argues that the distinctive issues confronted in the earlier periods of "national populism" experienced in Peru have led to distinct patterns of change in the more recent authoritarian period. He calls for a more differentiated understanding of the distinct patterns of national political evolution found in Peru and Mexico, as opposed to Argentina, Brazil, and Chile.

The final section of the volume probes the likely direction of future evolution of bureaucratic­authoritarianism, as well as appropriate directions for further research. The opening chapter by Guillermo O'Donnell provides new insights into the severe internal contradictions that characterize this form of

11

authoritarianism. He argues that political society is conventionally held together by two underlying forces---domination and consensus-and that bureau­cratic-authoritarianism involves an emphasis on domination to the virtual exclusion of consensus. This is due in part to the heavy emphasis placed by these governments on maintaining economic and political conditions that are attractive to foreign investors and international lending agencies. This encourages the neglect of traditional symbols often used to generate internal consensus such as economic nationalism and patriotism-both particularly relevant to the popular sector. In addition, the attempt to destroy the political parties and labor organizations that previously served to mediate the relationship between the state and society undermines the structures of representation that are another fundamental channel through which consensus is conventionally achieved. O'Donnell notes that this rejection of consensus in favor of domination leads to severe tensions and contradic­tions and he ~uggests that these tensions can ulti­mately be resolved only through the creation of a new political formula that permits some form of demo­cratization.

The chapter by James Kurth broadens the discus­sion by exploring the relationship between the prob­lems of industrialization emphasized in the bureaucratic-authoritarian model and the concerns of research on industrialization and political change in Europe. Kurth first places the argument about Latin American industrialization within the larger framework of research on the timing of industrializa­tion that has grown out of the work of Alexander Gerschenkron.25 This literature argues that the pat­terns of economic, social, and political change that accompany industrialization are not the same in all countries, but differ in important-and to some de­gree predictable-ways according to the degree to which industrialization occurs "early" or "late" in rela­tion to the first historical cases of industrialization in Western Europe. Kurth then analyzes the politics of industrialization in a number of European countries, using an approach that combines these arguments about the timing of industrialization with the ap­proach of the bureaucratic-authoritarian model that emphasizes different sectors of industry (e.g., con-

25 Alexander Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspec­tive (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1962); and "The Typology of Industrial Development as a Tool of Analysis," in Gerschen­kron, editor, Continuity in History and Other Essays (Cambridge, Mass: Har­vard University Press, 1968).

12

sumer goods versus intermediate and capital goods). He shows that by analyzing simultaneously dif­ferences between "early," "late," and "late-late" indus­trializers (involving Western, Eastern, and Southern Europe, respectively) and differences among distinct sectors of industry (involving textile, steel, and auto­mobile industrialization), one can discover striking regularities in the politics of European industrializa­tion . Kurth concludes his chapter by showing how the patterns that emerged in his analysis of Europe can suggest new insights into some of the Latin American countries considered in other chapters in this volume. Kurth's analysis thus illustrates some of the im­provements in theory that can derive from applying arguments about Latin American authoritarianism to other regions. Yet he makes it clear that one cannot rely on a mechanical extension of these arguments. Rather, it is essential to specify with great care a series of theoretically relevant characteristics in each con­text one analyzes in order to apply the theory to that context in an appropriate way.

The final chapter by David Collier attempts to syn­thesize some of the criticism and insights presented in the other chapters in the volume. Collier particularly stresses three issues. First, with regard to the problem of explaining bureaucratic-authoritarianism, the analyses in the volume clearly challenge the "deepen­ing" hypothesis and point to the need to broaden the economic argument. Yet the underlying idea of the bureaucratic-authoritarian model-that different phases of industrialization have important implica­tions for politics--appears to be supported . However, apart from changes in industry, other factors are so important that they may well be additional necessary conditions for the appearance of bureaucratic­authoritarianism. Along with internal political char­acteristics, Collier particularly stresses the importance of the reaction to the Cuban revolution, changes in the international economic system, and intervention by the United States. 26

Second, it is essential to consolidate the intellectual gains derived from the basic methodological ap­proach of the volume: that of extending the argu­ment to additional countries as a means of gaining fresh insights both into these new cases and into the original cases of bureaucratic-authoritarianism. Col-

26 Another Joint Committee on Latin American Studies project, di­rected by Richard R. Fagen of Stanford University, is exploring these crucial issues of the links between changes in the international economic and political system and the emergence of authoritarianism.

VOLUME 31/32, NUMBER 4/1

lier presents a preliminary unified version of the argument in order to illustrate how one might begin to integrate the economic and political explanations of bureaucratic-authoritarianism in an analysis that includes eight Latin American countries. Collier suggests that extending the argument to other world regions can yield similar intellectual gains, stressing particularly the ways in which Kurth's chapter serves as a model for such extensions of the analysis.

Third, apart from contributing to social science theory, efforts to understand bureaucratic­authoritarianism may also have practical implications. Several authors in the volume emphasize that the importance of analyzing bureaucratic- . authoritarianism derives in part from the possibility that a more complete understanding of the economic, social, and political problems that gave rise to this authoritarianism can contribute to the discovery of better solutions to these same problems. This practi­cal im plication may be relevant for other world re­gions as well as for Latin America. Political leaders from other Third World nations often look with con­cern at recent events in the industrially advanced countries of South America, out of an awareness that these events may have important implications for the political evolution of their own societies. Attempts to extend the analysis to these other regions could simi­larly contribute to a process of political learning through which it might be possible to avoid the harsh forms of authoritarianism that have recently ap­peared in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay.

International collaboration

Along with the preparation of this edited volume, a central goal of the working group has been to encourage scholarly communication and collabora­tion among social scientists in Latin America and the United States. Research on Latin America has re­cently gone through a period of major intellectual ferment, in part as a result of the creative interaction between the often contrasting perspectives of scholars from the two hemispheres. The working group has sought to encourage this interaction.

In addition to the formal and informal meetings described above, the working group has supported scholarly visits by Latin American members of the group to the United States and by U.S. members to Latin America. It has also supported an exchange of economic and social data among the members and the preparation at Indiana University of a computerized working bibliography that has been circulated to members of the group and to other interested schol­ars. The edited volume will include an extensive bibliography, drawn from this larger working bibliog­raphy, which will be cross-referenced across 16 sub­ject and country headings. The goal of the bibliog­raphy project coincides with the larger purpose of the working group: to make it easier for scholars in Latin America and the United States to scrutinize a shared body of data and a shared literature in order to build a more adequate understanding of Latin American authoritarianism. ' 0

Project LINK in 1977

THE FIRST WORLD MEETING of Project LINK partici­pants, after the planning meeting of summer 1968, was in Hakone, japan in August 1969. That was primarily a programmatic meeting. In 1977-many

* The author is Benjamin Franklin professor of economics at the Uni­versity of Pennsylvania. He has been a member of the Council's Commit­tee on Economic Stability and Growth, which sponsors LINK, since its appointment in 1959. The other members of the committee are Bert G. Hickman, Stanford University (chairman); Irma G. Adelman, University of Maryland ; Martin Brofenbrenner, Duke University; Otto Eckstein, Harvard University; Stephen M. Goldfeld, Princeton University; R. A. Gordon, University of California, Berkeley; Franco Modigliani, Massa­chusetts Institute of Technology; Geoffrey H. Moore, National Bureau of Economic Research (New York); Arthur M. Okun, Brookings Institution (Washington, D.C.); Rudolph R. Rhomberg, International Monetary Fund (Washington, D.C.); staff, Louis Wolf Goodman.

MARCH 1978

by Lawrence R. K Zein *

country partiCipants, many meetings, many system components later-we returned to japan, on this oc­casion to Kyoto, hosted by the Kyoto University Insti­tute of Economic Research, the Bank of japan, and other japanese sponsors and participants.

This return to japan reminded LINK participants of the evolution of the project into an established and growing program of internationally collaborative re­search and analysis of the world economy. The LINK program for 1977 followed the format established in 1975 of one short working meeting in the spring (this year held at the United Nations in New York City) and a longer meeting in the autumn (held in Kyoto). As in the past, the various econometric model centers sent their latest data up-dates, together with system changes, to LINK Central at the University of Pennsyl-

13

vania. These were assembled in central data files and checked so that LINK Central model solutions agreed with those of each country or region. With this basis, the fall meeting had two central foci: (1) continuing the regular LINK forecasts with special concern for the uncertain and poor state of the world business cycle and (2) the introduction of capital flows with endogenous exchange rates into the LINK system.

A relatively slower rate of growth in world trade for the near future had already been foreseen at the Venice meetings in 1976, but f977 and future pro­spects were working out along an even slower path by September 1977. During the course of the year, from the time of the year-end LINK forecasts of December 1976, again at the March meetings of LINK at the United Nations, and finally at Kyoto, we were getting increasingly weaker economic forecasts from a number of LINK participants. In March, it appeared that real GDP growth of the 13 major LINK countries in OECD would be about 4.7 per cent, already a decline from the December 1976 forecast, and the Kyoto discussion focused on a figure of about 4.2 per cent.

As participants from each of the individual coun­tries gave reports on the current status of their economies, we could see the seriousness of the im­pending slowdown. The report from Scandinavia was particularly depressing and markedly worse than had been perceived at either the March meetings or at the end of 1976. The US report was on the strong side, except for the large trade deficit with a falling dollar exchange rate, and the UK report on financial devel­opments was glowing. Interesting insight was gained into future British policy for reflation, given the good financial report.

The meetings occurred right after the Japanese announcement of a large increase in the national budget that carried a nominal price tag of 2.0 trillion yen. In the LINK analysis of centrally planned economies, we were apprised of the efforts of some East European countries to restrain imports in view of external deficits and consequent debt balances. Also, months ahead of most other world economy analyses, we had reports on the USSR that would lead to an estimation of a grain harvest of under 200 million tons and of a growth in the economy of less than five per cent in 1977.

An interesting technical aspect of these LINK meet­ings that showed how far we had progressed since our initial gathering at Hakone was that we were able to have computations by week's end of the complete system impact of the disappointing cyclical devel­opments being reported to the participants at the

14

beginning of the week. The research staff of LINK

Central had installed a tape of the complete system, with a baseline solution developed just prior to the meetings on the Kyoto University computer, and had successfully introduced changes in the solution to re­flect the significant new inputs being reported at the time. Excellent international cooperation enabled this joint research effort to be carried out on the spot, under short notice, despite the difficulties associated with language barriers and hardware differences. The research staffs of both the Kyoto Institute for Economic Research and LINK Central implemented this aspect of the work of the meetings.

The second theme of the meetings, dealing with capital flows and exchange rate determination, fol­lowed a succession of papers on these subjects at ear­lier meetings, especially the Venice meeting in 1976. At the conclusion of the meeting it was agreed that each LINK research center would submit to LINK Cen­tral minimal equation specifications for estimating capital flows and exchange rates. In the absence of submission of such equations, the. research staff of LINK Central will prepare alternative estimates for any country lacking the necessary equations so that endogenous exchange rate estimates can become a part of the system in 1978. This is a significant new target for a project that was founded just before the Smithsonian Agreement to cope with the new world system of floating rates. The LINK simulations have been helpful in picking out large trade imbalances that have predictably led to exchange rate adjust­ments, but now the objective is to formalize this pro­cedure on a fully quantitative basis.

A major research achievement, reported at the Kyoto meetings, is the updating of the world trade matrix to 1975, the first on a detailed basis since the large exchange revaluations of the early 1970s and the introduction of OPEC pricing for oil in 1974. Now that procedures have been worked out, it is intended to have a regular annual updating. The comparison of 1971 with the 1975 matrices is highly revealing of shifts in international trade that have taken place in the past few years, and it makes the LINK simulations a great deal more meaningful.

The program agenda for the Kyoto' meetings shows the many other issues that were taken up-world policy simulations, transmission analyses, South and East Asian model building, mainland China model­ing, alternative approaches to linkage, and commod­ity modeling within LINK. These are all indicative of the vigor of an ongoing research program that is wrestling with the evolving problems of the world economy. A full listing of the papers is:

VOLUME 31/32, NUMBER 4/1

F. Gerard Adams, University of Pennsylvania, "Com­modity Models in LINK"

Michel Aile and Victor Ginsburgh, Free University of Brussels, "Two-Regime Export Price Equations for Belgium"

Akihiro Amano, School of Business Administration, Kobe University, "Endogenizing the Exchange Rate in a Macroeconometric Model"

Paul Beaumont and Ingmar Prucha, University of Penn­sylvania, "Updated World Trade Matrices, 1971-1975, and an Analysis of Recent Changes in Trade Patterns"

Klaus Conrad and Peter Kohnert, University of Bonn, "The Bonn Forecasting System No. 10: The Model of the Monetary Sector of the Economy"

Jorge Gana, University of Pennsylvania, Bert G. Hickman and Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University, "Alternative Approaches to Linkage of National Econometric Models"

Ernesto Hernandez-Cata, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "A Multi-Country Model to Analyze International Influences on the U.S. Econ­omy: A Progress Report"

Bert G. Hickman, Yoshimi Kuroda, and Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University, "The Pacific Basin in World Trade: An Analysis of Changing Trade Patterns, 1955-1975"

Bert G. Hickman, Stanford University, and Stefan Schleicher, Institute for Advanced Studies (Vienna), "The Interdependence of National Economies: Evi­dence from the LINK Project"

Shinichi Ichimura, Kyoto University, "\1odels of East and Southeast Asian Developing Economies"

Lawrence J. Lau, William Choa, Center on Trade Devel­opment, United Nations, Wun-Long Liu, World Health Organization, and Jia-Dong Shea, Stanford University, "An Economic Model of China"

Johan A. Lybeck, Stockholm School of Economics, "An Empirical Comparison of Four Capital-Flow Models"

Stefan Schleicher and Heinz Glueck, Institute for Ad­vanced Studies (Vienna), "An Integrated International Capital Flow Model"

Shuntaro Shishido, Tsukuba University, "An Alternative World Model"

Carl Weinberg, National Bureau of Economic Research and New York University, "A Wealth-Power Parity Approach to Exchange Rates"

At the end of the sessions, concern was expressed for the world economic situation whose dimensions were being unfolded at the meetings by releasing a statement to the Japanese and the world press on Project LINK'S view of prospects, 1977-79. 0

Current Activities at the Council

Life-course perspectives on middle and old age

This new committee was appointed in September 1977 in order to employ a life-course perspective towards gaining a deeper understanding of middle and old age . Working directly with selected ongo­ing longitudinal and historical studies, it will aim toward an elaboration and spec­ification of the life-course perspective through direct confrontation with the findings from these studies. At the same time, it will contribute to the integration and fuller interpretation of the findings and to the stimulation of further re­search.

Results of the committee's deliberations concerning these studies and of its con­tinuing theoretical work in specifying the life-course perspective on middle and old age will be prepared as working papers and as a final report for circulation to a wide range of scholars in order to elicit criticism and to stimulate interest in the field. As part of its three-year program of activities, the committee-using consul-

MARCH 1978

tants as needed-will convene brief top­ical meetings, longer summer seminars and workshops, and possibly a small in­ternational conference. The committee is currently expanding its membership and seeking funds to support its activities, which are scheduled to begin in June 1978. This year's staff essay in the Annual Report discusses the general concepts and possible substantive topics that are particu­larly relevant to this new committee's interests.

The initial members of the committee are Matilda White Riley, Bowdoin College (chairman); Paul B. Baltes, Pennsylvania State University; Orville G. Brim, Jr., Foundation for Child Development (New York); Glen H. Elder, Jr., The Boys Town Center for the Study of Youth De­velopment (Omaha) and University of North Carolina; and M. Brewster Smith, University of California, Santa Cruz. Ronald P. Abeles is the staff member of the committee.

Center-local relations in France, Italy, and Japan

In recent years, specialists on European and Japanese politics have begun to re­examine local politics and local-center intergovernmental relations using new conceptual approaches and new methodologies. Researchers have revised previously dominant notions of local gov­ernment as an extension of national ad­ministration or as an isolated and paroc­hial layer of administration without theoretical significance for the analysis of national political development. While there had been a long-standing concern with the administrative, financial, and legal aspects of intergovernmental rela­tions, scholars are now investigating in greater detail the structure of power rela­tionships among the various tiers of gov­ernment.

The present project represents a cul­mination of several different research planning activities dating from the late 1960s. In 1972, a planning group spon­sored by the American Council of

15

Learned Societies held a conference on communism in France and Italy which considered the rise to prominence of via­ble leftist administrations at the local level in these two countries. Then, in 1976, the joint Committee on japanese Studies (sponsored jointly by the Council and the American Council of Learned Societies) convened a conference on opposition politics at the local level in japan. Follow­ing these two conferences, several of the participants engaged in discussions on the feasibility of developing ajoint project on "local politicization and center-local rela­tions in France, Italy, and japan," to be sponsored by the joint Committee on japanese Studies and the joint Commit­tee on Western Europe. A preliminary planning meeting was held in New York in September 1977.

The project that has emerged from these efforts will bring together Ameri­can, European, and japanese scholars who have been working independently on such themes as changes in patterns of electoral support for political parties at the local level and the influence of such changes on national politics. The coun­tries to be studied are all highly industri­alized and have been ruled by a conserva­tive government for most of the postwar period. Local administration has in each case become increasingly politicized as leftist or "progressive" groups have gained strength in local elections. Moreover, there has been an erosion of electoral support for the ruling conserva­tive parties at the national level, raising the possibility of a national coalition gov­ernment involving leftist party participa­tion. These strikingly parallel devel­opments among three culturally and his­torically disparate cases pose a broad range of questions about the develop­ment of opposition parties in the ad­vanced industrial democracies.

A planning seminar for this new pro­ject will be held in April 1978, sponsored jointly by the committees on japan and Western Europe, with additional support from the Agnelli Foundation and the japan Society for the Promotion of Sci­ence. The participants in this seminar are Terry MacDougall, Harvard University (chairman); Michael T. Aiken, University of Wisconsin; Hiroshi Akuto, University of Tokyo; Suzanne D. Berger, Massachu­setts Institute of Technology; Gerald L. Curtis, Columbia University; Norman j. Glickman, U"niversity of Pennsylvania; Peter Gourevitch, McGill University; Mark Kesselman, Columbia University;

16

Ellis S. Krauss, Western Washington Uni­versity; Peter Lange, Harvard University; Robert Leonardi, Kansas State Univer­sity; Franco Levi, University of Turin; jack G. Lewis, Seikei University; Michio Muramatsu, Kyoto University; Raffaella Y. Nanetti, Kansas State University; Wat­aru Omori, University of Tokyo; Seizab­uro Sato, University of Tokyo; and Kurt Steiner, Stanford University. Ronald Aqua and Robert A. Gates are the staff members of this project.

The development of social cognition in children

In 1976, the Council established a Committee on Social and Affective De­velopment During Childhood, supported by grants from the Foundation for Child Development and the Bush Foundation. This interdisciplinary group of scholars has initiated several activities to stimulate new research focusing upon the social and emotional growth of children. From its first meeting, the committee has stressed the importance of viewing child development as the interaction of social, emotional and cognitive factors. In this context, a topic of growing interest to many researchers has been the way in which children think about social and emotional experiences. Although there is an abundance of empirical findings on the nature of children's cognitive de­velopment, inspired by the pioneering research of jean Piaget, most of this re­search is derived from children's experi­ence with concrete objects. Increasingly, developmental researchers have become concerned with topics such as role taking, empathy, and moral development. Many researchers are uncertain whether cogni­tive notions based upon children's expe­rience with physical objects can be applied to the cognitive structures and processes children employ to comprehend and con­template social and emotional phenom­ena. Although much of the research in this area has its roots in Piagetian assump­tions about cognitive growth, the commit­tee wishes to encourage new ways of con­ceptualizing social cognition.

During the year 1977-78, several social scientists presented their ideas and re­search concerning social cognition to members of the committee in a series of informal seminars held on the West Coast. In some instances, these viewpoints were only marginally related to chil-

dren's conceptions of social phenomena. Yet, each speaker presented ideas that challenge existing notions about the ori­gins and growth of social cognition.

Among the many topics discussed at these seminars are the methodology of assessing children's attitudes toward obedience and authority (William Da­mon, Clark University), the nature of human inference processes (Amos Tversky, The Hebrew University), the origins and functions of "scripts" as knowledge structures (Robert Abelson, Yale University), and the development of causal attribution in children (E. Tory Higgins, University of Western Ontario). Other researchers who have discussed their work with the committee are Albert Bandura, Stanford University; Thomas Berndt, Yale University; Roy D'Andrade, University of California, San Diego; Rochel Gelman, University of Pennsyl­vania; Stephen M. Kosslyn, Harvard Uni­versity, and Eleanor Rosch, University of California, Berkeley.

Members of the Committee on Social and Affective Development During Childhood who have participated in these seminars include john H. Flavell, Stan­ford University; Martin L. Hoffman, University of Michigan; jerome Kagan, Harvard University (chairman); Michael Lewis, Educational Testing Service (Princeton, New jersey); Lee D. Ross, Stanford University; Theodore Schwartz, University of California, San Diego; Richard A. Shweder, University of Chicago; Elliot Turiel, University of California, Santa Cruz; staff, Peter B. Read.

Social and occupational mobility in the United States and Japan

For a number of years, the Council has actively collaborated with the japan Soci­ety for the Promotion of Science aSPS) in planning joint projects in the social sci­ences and the humanities. Recent dis­cussions with the jSPS raised the possibility of a new collaborative effort focusing upon social mobility processes in japan and the United States. Issues re­lated to the study of occupations and so­cial stratification, with particular atten­tion to the effects of education and early work experience upon later personality and career development, were identified as promising topics for this endeavor.

VOLUME 31/32, NUMBER 4/1

In December 1977 and january 1978, William H. Sewell (University of Wiscon­sin) and Ronald Aqua (SSRC staff) visited japan on separate occasions and dis­cussed these issues with several prom­inent japanese sociologists. The jSPS then committed funds to support japanese participation in several meet­ings involving both japanese and Ameri­can researchers interested in social and occupational mobility. The japan-United States Friendship Commission also granted funds to the Council for support of American participation in this col­laborative venture.

From March 27 to April 7, Ken'ichi Tominaga (Tokyo University), and two of his colleagues, Atsushi Naoi and Takatoshi Imada, traveled to the United States. They discussed their current re­search interests with scholars at the Uni­versity of Wisconsin, Indiana University, the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, the National Insti­tutes of Health, and the Council's Center for Research on the Coordination of So­cial Indicators (Washington, D.C.). In May, the Council plans a small meeting of American researchers who are actively involved in research on social stratifica­tion and occupational mobility to discuss promising avenues for collaborative work with the japanese.

Summer training institute on neurobiology and addiction

Sixteen participants were selected by the Committee on Biological Bases of So­cial Behavior to take part in the Summer Training Institute on Neurobiology and Addiction, held at the Department of Psychobiology, University of California, Irvine, june 20-July 29,1977. The insti­tute, supported by a grant from the Training Branch, National Institute of Mental Health, was the first of two such institutes planned by the committee. The one just concluded focused on the neurobiology of addiction and on current treatment approaches to the problems of addiction. The one planned for 1978 will focus on the neurobiology of depression.

The participants for 1977 included seven predoctoral and nine postdoctoral students--eight men and eight women. Twelve participants are from various

MARCH 1978

fields of psychology, one is a sociologist, two are anthropologists, and one is an epidemiologist. All are citizens or per­manent residents of the United States. Over 100 completed applications were reviewed in the selection of participants in the institute. Those selected were:

Postdoctoral: john W. Addis, CEMP Counseling Center, Bradford, Pennsyl­vania, and Ulliversity of Pittsburgh; Mar­lene Dobkin de Rios, associate professor of anthropology, California State Univer­sity, Fullerton; Alan A. Hartley, visiting professor of psychology, University of California, Irvine; Peggy A. Keilman, associate professor of psychology, Uni­versity of New Orleans; Mildred J. McIn­tyre, assistant professor of psychology, University of Massachusetts; Barbara Sanders, instructor in psychology, Uni­versity of Colorado; Michael Scavio, asso­ciate professor of psychology, California State University, Fullerton; Brett Sil­verstein, instructor in psychology, Prince­ton University; Christine A. von Glascoe, research anthropologist, Irvine, Califor­mao

Predoctoral: Ruth B. Caldwell, Depart­ment of Psychology, Memphis State Uni­versity; Adrienne M. Frostholm, Depart­ment of Psychology, Hofstra University; Neil E. Grunberg, Department of Psy­chology, Columbia University; Linda Kamal, Cambridge, Massachusetts; joseph W. Smedley, Department of Psy­chology, Howard University; David A. Snowdon, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota; Richard O. Straub, Depart­ment of Psychology, Columbia Univer­sity.

The faculty of the summer institute, all from the Univeristy of California, Irvine, included Richard F. Thompson, pro­fessor of psychobiology (institute di­rector); Dennis Glanzman, research psy­chobiologist (assistant director); Carl W. Cotman, psychobiology; Roland A. Giolli, psychobiology and anatomy; Louis A. Gottschalk, psychiatry and human be­havior; Herbert P. Killackey, psy­chobiology; Arnold Starr, psychobiology and neurology; Sujata Tewari, psychiatry and human behavior; jack C. Waymire, psychobiology; Richard E. Whalen, psy­chobiology; and Pauline I. Yahr, psy­chobiology. A number of other lecturers also participated in the program.

The curriculum included basic cellular biology, neurochemistry, neuroanatomy,

neurophysiology, psychobiology, and ap­plications of this basic information to problems of addiction. The course in­cluded a week focusing on clinical treat­ment.

Summer training institute for social scientists on neurobiology and mental illness-l 978

The purpose of this six-week summer institute is to provide pre- and postdoc­toral social scientists with training in basic neurobiology, in the neurobiology of mental illness, and in clinical applications. Prior training in the biological sciences is not required for participation in the insti­tute.

The institute will be held from june 26 through August 4, 1978 at the Depart­ment of Psychobiology, the University of California, Irvine; it is being conducted under the auspices of the Social Science Research Council's Committee on Biolog­ical Bases of Social Behavior, with sup­port provided to the Council by the Na­tional Institute of Mental Health. More detailed information may be obtained by writing to:

Professor Richard F. Thompson Department of Psychobiology University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA 92717

Attention: Sharon Phillips

Staff appointment

james L. Peterson joined the Council staff on October I, 1977; his work will be with the Council's Center for Coordina­tion of Research on Social Indicators. Mr. Peterson received a B.A. in psychology from the University of California at Davis in 1966, an M.A. in sociology from the University of Chicago in 1968, an M.S. in statistics from Chicago in 1970, and a Ph.D. in sociology from Chicago in 1972. He comes to the Council from the Insti­tute for Survey Research, Temple Uni­versity, where he held the position of study director from 1971 to 1977. His initial responsibilities at the Center in­clude the preparation of the reports of the recently held conference on the Na­tional Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience.

17

New Publications

j from Council activities and committee projects

Toward a Metric of Science: The Advent of Science Indicators, edited by Yehuda Elkana, Joshua Lederberg, Robert K. Merton, Arnold Thackray, and Harriet Zuckerman. Product of a conference sponsored by the Social Science Research Council and the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. New York, Chichester, Brisbane, and To­ronto: Wiley-Interscience, 1978. xiv + 354 pages. $19.95.

The papers in this book were prepared for a 1974 conference on science indi­cators held on the occasion of the publica­tion of the National Science Board's Sci­ellce Indicators 1972. Jointly sponsored by the Social Science Research Council and the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, the conference brought together historians, sociologists, and philosophers of science with physical, life, and social scientists, including spe­cialists in social indicators, to discuss sci­ence indicators as concept and in practice. Although occasioned by Science Indicators 1972, the discussions covered broad is­sues in the measurement of aspects of the scientific enterprise. The essays in Toward a ,Wetric of Science deal with the relation­ship of science indicators to the larger social indicators movement, measure­ment in the historiography of science, models of science indicators, measure­ment and data problems specific toScience Indicators 1972, new sources of data for science indicators, and the political con­texts of science indicators.

Editors of the volume are Yehuda EI­kana, The Van Leer Jerusalem Founda­tion, Israel; Joshua Lederberg, Rocke­feller University; Robert K. Yterton, Columbia University; Arnold Thackray, University of Pennsylvania; and Harriet Zuckerman, Columbia University. Other contributors to the volume are Jonathan R. Cole, Columbia University; Stephen Cole, State University of New York, Stony Brook; Lorraine Dietrich, University of Arizona; Otis Dudley Duncan, University of Arizona; Yaron Ezrahi, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Eugene Gar­field, Institute for Scientific Information (Philadelphia); Zvi Griliches, Harvard Uni­versity; Gerald Holton, Harvard Univer­sity; Manfred Kochen, University' of

18

Michigan; William H. Kruskal, University of Chicago; Morton Malin, I nstitute for Scientific Information (Philadelphia); Derek de Solla Price, Yale University; Henry G. Small, Institute for Scientific Information (Philadelphia); Hans Zeisel, University of Chicago; and John Ziman, University of Bristol. '

Modes of Perceiving and Processing In­formation, edited by Herbert L. Pick, Jr. and Elliot Saltzman. Papers based upon two workshops held during the spring of 1974 and 1975 and sponsored by the Committee on Cognitive Research. Hills­dale, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1978. Distributed by the Hal­sted Press Division of John Wiley and Sons.

The traditional empiricist view of per­ception regarded it as a learning and problem-solving like behavior. More re­cently, researchers have focused upon connections between the fields of percep­tion and cognition, an approach that has been intluenced by work on cybernetics, informa tion theory, communications, and artificial intelligence. This volume ex­plores the implications of this emerging approach for such areas as speech per­ception, space perception, and perceptual-motor coordination. The con­tributors report recent studies that exam­ine the relationship between perceptual activity and cognitive processing. From a variety of viewpoints and with a diverse set of phenomena, they argue that differ­ent general dispositions or modes of pro­cessing are involved in different daily ac­tivit.ies.

The editors have written a helpful first chapter which outlines some of the major conceptual issues involved in this research and have provided succinct introductions to the remaining chapters. A concluding es.~ay by M. T. Turvey and Sandra Sears Prindle reviews the major points of each article and identifies themes fundamental to a consideration of constraints on the theory of perception. These materials are invaluable to the reader who must assimi­late materials that cover a wide range of topics from "An Investigation Into the Special Character of Pictures," through

"The Role of Set for Spatial Location," to "Perceiving Change." While the authors describe relevant research, they also dis­cuss the complex unresolved issues that lie behind the empirical evidence. As a result, the book should be an important resource for those who are involved in or contemplating new research on percep­tion and cognition.

Contributors to this book include Ytar­garet A. Hagen, Boston University; M. A. K. Halliday, University of Sydney; David N. Lee, University of Edinburgh; Arien Ytack, New School for Social Research; Peter F. MacNeilage, University of Texas; Mary Jo Nissen, University of Oregon; William C. Ogden, University of Oregon; Allan Paivio, University of West­ern Ontario; Herbert L. Pick,Jr., Univer­sity of Minnesota; John Pittenger, Uni­versity of Arkansas (Little Rock); Michael I. Posner, University of Oregon; Sandra Sears Prindle, University of Connecticut and Haskins Laboratories; Elliot Saltzman, University of Minnesota; Robert Shaw, University of Connecticut; Colwyn Trevarthen, University of Edin­burgh; M. T. Turvey, University of Con­necticut and Haskins Laboratories.

I Talking to Children: Language Input and Acquisition, edited by Catherine E. Snow and Charles A. Ferguson. Papers from a conference sponsored by the Committee on Sociolinguistics, Septem­ber 6-8, 1974 at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Boston, Massachu­setts. Cambridge, London, New York, and Melbourne: Cambridge University Press, 1977. 369 pages, including an an­notated bibliography.

In recent years, "child language" has become established as an important re­search area providing problems, data, and insights for the converging interests of a growing group of linguists, psycholo­gists, and anthropologists. A topic of par­ticular current interest is the speech used by parents to the'ir children-"baby talk." Linguists have compared baby talk with other simplified stylistic variants of a lan­guage; anthropologists have looked at cross-cultural differences in mother­child interaction; and psychologists have

VOLUME 31/32, NUMBER 4/1

tried to relate language development to

differences in styles of child care and in the child's social environment generally. The Conference on Language Input and Acquisition, which was sponsored by the Committee on Sociolinguistics under a grant from the Grant Foundation, fo­cused on baby talk in order to encourage interdisciplinary research on the environment in which language is learned and on the social-interactional nature of what is learned.

In addition to the editors, the con­tributors to the volume are Elaine S. An­dersen, Stanford University; Ben G. Blount, University of Texas; Roger Brown, Harvard University; James By­non, University of London; Toni G. Cross, University of Melbourne; Susan Ervin-Tripp, University of California, Berkeley; Olga K. Garnica, Ohio State University; Rochel Gelman, University of Pennsylvania; Henry Gleitman, Univer­sity of Pennsylvania; Lila R. Gleitman, University of Pennsylvania; Jean Berko Gleason, Boston University; Allen D. Grimshaw, Indiana University; Sara Harkness, Harvard University; Elissa L. Newport, University of California, San Diego; Velta Rii~e-Dravil}a, University of Stockholm; Jacqueline Sachs, University of Connecticut; Marilyn Shatz, University of Pennsylvania and City University of New York; Ton van der Geest, University of Amsterdam; and Dorothy Davis Wills, University of Texas.

Political Development in Eastern Europe, edited by Jan F. Triska and Paul M. Cocks. Product of a conference spon­sored by the Joint Committee on Eastern Europe of the American Council of Learned Societies and the Social Science Research Council, held at Stanford Uni­versity, December 4-5, 1975. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1977.374 pp. + xxiv. Hardbound, $30.00; paperback, $7.95.

This book examines political change in the communist societies of Eastern Europe from the 1950s to the present. Modernization theory and political change analysis are utilized to explore four major areas of current interest to both Western and Marxist scholars: (I)

MARCH 1978

ideological adaptation; (2) institutions and political organizations; (3) elite-mass rela­tionships and the political roles of each; and (4) external influences on domestic policies. Special attention is given to the relationship between institutionalization and citizen participation, and to the im­pact of modernization on the political evolution of these societies.

Jan F. Triska is a professor of political science at Stanford University; Paul M. Cocks is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. In addition to the editors, the contributors are Gabriel Armond, Stan­ford University; Kent :-.J. Brown, U.S. Department of State; Lenard J. Cohen, Simon Frazer University; Mary Ellen Fischer, Skidmore College; Charles Gati, Union College; Zvi Gitelman, University of 'Michigan; Paul M. Johnson, Yale Uni­versity; Kenneth Jowitt, University of California, Berkeley; Andrzej Korbonski, University of California, Los Angeles; Paul Marer, Indiana University; Sarah Meiklejohn Terry, Tufts University; and William Zimmerman, University of Michigan.

j Rural Small-scale Industry in the People's Republic of China, report of the American rural small-scale industry dele­gation chaired by Dwight H. Perkins, Harvard University, whose travel was a part of the exchange program of the Committee on Scholarly Communication with the People's Republic of China and the Chinese Scientific and Technical Association. The Committee is jointly sponsored by the Council, the American Council of Learned Societies, and the Na­tional Academy of Sciences. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1977. 296 pages.

The visit of the 12-member delegation to the People's Republic of China took place from June 12 to July 10, 1975-lasting 28 days-and included the obser­vation of production and discussions with personnel and officials at 50 factories in ten different communes. These were lo­cated in four kinds of settings: in rural mountainous areas of the north, on the :-.Jorth China Plain, in suburban (but still

rural) regions near large cities, and in southern paddy rice regions. At the time of the visit, all industries cooperatively owned by rural communes and brigades were classified as "rural small-scale." State-owned enterprises were also in­cluded in this classification, provided that they were under the jurisdiction of a county and not some higher level of ad­ministrative unit. The delegation saw enterprises employing from under 50 to

600 persons and largely devoting their efforts to agricultural production., The delegation's report deals both .with tech­nical aspects of rural small-scale produc­tion in these diverse settings and with its fundamental role in promoting Chinese social and economic development.

The chairman of the delegation edited the volume and wrote the two essays that introduce and conclude it. The nine other chapters deal with the following suJ:>jects: socialist administrative systems and small-scale industry, worker incentives, the economies of rural small-scale indus­try, agricultural mechanization and ma­chinery production, small-scale chemical fertilizer technology, small-scale cement industry technology, how small-scale in­dustry serves agriculture, the impact of small-scale industry on Chinese society, and its role in expanding knowledge and transforming attitudes. In the appen­dices, detailed information is provided about the people who were met, the daily itinerary, the structure of administrative control in Chinese industry, price data, and the volume and quality of the pro­duction of machinery.

In addition to the chairman, the mem­bers of the delegation and contributors to the volume are Alexander DeAngelis, Committee on Scholarly Communication with the People's Republic of China; Robert F. Dernberger, University of Michigan; Scott Hallford, U.S. Depart­ment of State; Amir Khan, International Rice Research I nstitute; Owen Livingston, International Fertilizer De­velopment Center; William Parish, Uni­versity of Chicago; Thomas G. Rawski, University of Toronto; Kenneth D. Sim­mons, Martin Marietta Cement; Arthur Stinchcombe, University of Chicago; Peter Timmer, Cornell University; and Lyman P. Van Slyke, Stanford University.

19

Senior Fulbright-Hays awards open for 1978-79

More than 500 awards for university lecturing and postdoctoral research in about 90 countries will be made to Ameri­cans for the academic year 1978-79, the thirty-first year of the senior Fulbright-Hays program. Further in­formation is available Exchange of Schol­ars (CIES): Suite 300, Eleven Dupont Cir­cle, Washington, D.C. 20036.

land, American Republics), or July 1 (Af­rica, Asia, Europe).

Requests for appointments must be submitted by June I (Australia, New Zea-

The terms of award vary from country to country, but generally consist of a maintenance allowance for the grantee and accompanying family members, roundtrip travel for the grantee, and one or more allowances. Travel is usually pro­vided for one dependent of lecturing grantees appointed for a full academic year.

20

SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH COUNCIL 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK, N . Y. 10016

Incorporated in the State of Illinois, December 27, 1924, for the purpose of advancing research in the social sciences

Directors, 1977-78; IRMA G. ADELMAN, PETER B. DEWS, ROBERT

EISNER, JACOB j. FELDMAN, CLIFFORD GEERTZ, PETER R. GOULD, PHILIP

W. JACKSON, HAROLD H. KELLEY, FRANKLIN W. KNIGHT, GERALD H.

KRAMER, W,LLIAM H. KRUSKAL, OTTO N. LARSEN, LEON LIPSON , CORA

BAGLEY MARRETT, HERBERT MCCLOSKY, MURRAY G. MURPHY, PAUL H.

MUSSEN, GUY H . ORCUTT, SAMUEL C. PATTERSON, ALICE S. ROSSI, PEGGY

R. SANDAY, ELEANOR BERNERT SHELDON, ALBERT j. STUNKARD, STEPHEN

A. THERNSTROM

Officers and Staff: ELEANOR BERNERT SHELDON, President; DAVID L. SILLS, Executive Associate; RONALD P. ABELES, RONALD AQUA, ROBERT A.

GATES, MARTHA A. GEPHART, LOUIS WOLF GOODMAN, ROBERTA BALSTAD

MILLER, ROWLAND L. MITCHELL,jR., ROBERT PARKE,jAMES L. PETERSON,

PETER B. READ, DAVID SEIDMAN, DAVID L. SZANTON, MARTHA W. FOR­

MAN, Assistant Treasurer; NANCY L. CARMICHAEL, Librarian

TO:

Requests for information should indi­cate field of specialization, preferred countries or geographic areas, and prob­able dates of availability. To be eligible, applicants must have a doctorate or col­lege teaching experience and be citizens of the United States. Those who wish to indicate a continuing interest in Fulbright-Hays and other educational programs may complete a two-page form for the Register of Scholars maintained by the CIES.

VOLUME 31/32, NUMBER 4/1

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New York, N.Y. Permit No. 1514

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